RECORDNEWS — broadcast
20260917 090000 UTC
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[00:04:18] The competition between the domestic
[00:04:24] and foreign markets, in addition to the expectation of government purchases, keeps
[00:04:27] the prices of paddy rice firm in Rio Grande do
[00:04:31] Sul. According to Cepea, in recent days,
[00:04:34] deals for shipping have occurred at values
[00:04:38] close to R$90 per 50 kg bag,
[00:04:41] at the Port of Rio Grande, in Rio Grande do Sul. This scenario led
[00:04:45] producers to increase supply, especially in regions near
[00:04:49] the terminal. At the same time, some domestic
[00:04:52] industries reduced their activity due to the difficulty in keeping up with
[00:04:56] export prices. According to the research center, the
[00:05:00] dispute occurs in a context of greater demand from industries for
[00:05:03] raw materials. In August, rice processing in the state
[00:05:07] advanced and consumer prices also
[00:05:10] registered an increase. Brazilian coffee exports
[00:05:14] reached a record volume in August. We bring you more
[00:05:18] information. According to data from the Council of
[00:05:20] Coffee Exporters of Brazil,
[00:05:22] total shipments of green, roasted, and soluble coffee
[00:05:26] totaled 4.16 million 60 kg bags.
[00:05:30] This is the highest volume ever recorded for the month of August
[00:05:34] since the beginning of CCAfé's historical series in
[00:05:37] 1990. According to Cepea, Arabica
[00:05:40] coffee shipments remain strong
[00:05:42] and contributed to the increase in exports. However,
[00:05:46] Robusta sales also helped to push the result
[00:05:49] up. According to Cepea researchers, despite the recent acceleration,
[00:05:53] the Brazilian producer remains more capitalized this crop
[00:05:57] and has been commercializing coffee in a more gradual way,
[00:06:00] without the pressure for cash observed in other
[00:06:04] seasons. The production of tomatoes on a farm
[00:06:07] in the interior of Goiás
[00:06:09] is a business that passed from father to son. The harvest
[00:06:13] began at the end of August, and the hope now is for the crop to be
[00:06:17] profitable.
[00:06:18] Color, size, and
[00:06:21] maturation. In the field, each of these
[00:06:25] details helps to define the quality of the tomato that
[00:06:29] goes to the industry.
[00:06:31] On this farm in Morrinhos,
[00:06:35] the harvest began about 20
[00:06:39] days ago. With the tomatoes ready,
[00:06:42] now the producer's hope is that the result of the harvest
[00:06:45] will also be just right. But in the field, the weather
[00:06:48] can change the course of production. The first
[00:06:52] harvest of the year was weaker. The planting done
[00:06:55] in March faced a period of heavy rain that
[00:06:59] ended up affecting production. The weather this year was
[00:07:02] quite challenging. It was a climate
[00:07:06] that had several setbacks, you know, a very
[00:07:10] large temperature range, but
[00:07:13] mainly the first crops, which we
[00:07:16] planted earlier, had problems. But the
[00:07:20] crops that we are harvesting later now are having
[00:07:23] a good result. It's in the middle of the crop that we can
[00:07:27] get a sense of the production. Here the
[00:07:31] harvest is mechanized and irrigation is done
[00:07:34] by a system with several pivots. After
[00:07:37] harvesting, all this tomato goes directly
[00:07:41] to the industry. This harvest, the expectation is to harvest
[00:07:44] 109 tons per hectare, a result
[00:07:48] similar to that recorded last year. The right
[00:07:52] time for harvesting is another important factor. The
[00:07:56] tomato needs to have the adequate characteristics
[00:08:00] of maturation and quality to be
[00:08:03] processed. The crop in which you can
[00:08:06] gain, but you also have the probability of losing.
[00:08:10] Right, you have to do a good job and count on the
[00:08:13] weather and with God too, because it's a crop
[00:08:17] in which you can leave
[00:08:20] a lot of future problems
[00:08:24] with it. On this property, tomatoes have been
[00:08:27] cultivated for 21 years. Over this
[00:08:31] time, Paulo learned to deal with the challenges of the
[00:08:34] farm, and early on, he made a point of teaching
[00:08:37] his son the values and lessons of life in the
[00:08:41] countryside. Since he was young, we've been coming to the farm,
[00:08:43] right? He'd accompany us, he'd been to school there
[00:08:47] since he started walking, he'd already walked around the shed, he'd already accompanied my
[00:08:50] father, but after I graduated, which
[00:08:54] was 4 years ago, we've been more involved in the company
[00:08:57] here. In the end, what is planted
[00:09:00] doesn't always stay just on the farm. Some
[00:09:03] seeds germinate in the form of experience,
[00:09:07] partnership, and a work that follows from father
[00:09:10] to son. When you're getting to a certain age, you start feeling
[00:09:14] a bit weakened, then a new force comes,
[00:09:17] and you reinvigorate everything, renew again,
[00:09:20] right? Let's now look at the weather forecast for
[00:09:24] this Thursday throughout
[00:09:26] Brazil.
[00:09:32] Thursday will have dry weather in most of the country, but still with
[00:09:36] some contrasts in some areas. In the south, the highlight continues
[00:09:39] to be the colder morning, with a risk of frost in mountainous
[00:09:42] areas. Between the coastal strip of the Southeast and Bahia, the humidity that
[00:09:46] comes from the ocean keeps many clouds and conditions for rain at times,
[00:09:50] and a cold front in the ocean reinforces instabilities
[00:09:53] in some areas. Meanwhile, the heat and low
[00:09:57] humidity continue in the interior of the country. In the south, the weather
[00:10:00] remains dry in the region. The action of an interpolar mass continues to favor
[00:10:04] colder mornings and pleasant afternoons, and this Thursday there is a
[00:10:07] risk of frost between the mountains of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In the
[00:10:11] Southeast, dry weather also predominates in most of the region,
[00:10:15] however, the circulation of maritime humidity keeps many clouds and
[00:10:18] conditions for rain between the coastal strip of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito
[00:10:21] Santo, in addition to the east and northeast of Minas Gerais, being able to occur
[00:10:25] in a weak, moderate and stronger way in some areas, in the Zona da Mata in the south
[00:10:29] of Minas Gerais, in addition to the south and northeast of São Paulo, there is also a forecast of stronger
[00:10:33] rain showers, and the possibility of hail in some
[00:10:36] points is not ruled out. In the extreme north of Espírito Santo, there is an alert for
[00:10:40] storms. In the interior of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, the heat gains more
[00:10:44] strength during the afternoon. In the Midwest, the sun appears between few
[00:10:47] clouds and it's hot in most of the region, between the west,
[00:10:51] central strip and southeast of Goiás, also of Mato Grosso, besides the
[00:10:55] federal district, the heat and humidity in the atmosphere favor isolated
[00:10:59] rain showers at some moments. In the other
[00:11:02] areas, the weather remains drier, as in the capital Campo
[00:11:05] Grande. In the Northeast region, rain continues to be
[00:11:08] concentrated mainly in the south of Bahia, in addition to some stretches of the coastal strip
[00:11:11] between the Natal region and the northern coast of Bahia. In the rest
[00:11:15] of the region, the weather is dry, with heat and low humidity
[00:11:18] predominating. And in Recife, rain showers occur
[00:11:21] mainly during the early morning and morning, moderately
[00:11:25] strong. In the north of the country, the showers remain more
[00:11:28] concentrated between the central-west of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia and
[00:11:31] Roraima. While in the other areas, the weather remains dry,
[00:11:35] hot and humid. The very dry air in the interior of the country continues
[00:11:39] to draw attention. The air humidity can remain between 12 and 20% in areas of
[00:11:43] the interior of the Northeast and also in Tocantins, being able to fall below
[00:11:46] 12% in some points, increasing the risk of fires and
[00:11:50] health problems. In addition, the heat remains intense in
[00:11:54] some areas of Mato Grosso, Tocantins, south and east of
[00:11:57] Pará, interior of the Northeast, with maximums that can
[00:12:00] approach 40° in some cities. In São
[00:12:03] Paulo, a maximum of 17 this Thursday. In Rio de Janeiro and
[00:12:07] Porto Alegre, temperatures can reach up to 22 and
[00:12:10] 23°. In Brasília and Salvador, it gets hotter, with
[00:12:14] a maximum of 30, while in Cuiabá, it's 37° hot.
[00:12:17] Grain production can
[00:12:21] 2026/27 harvest. Analysis
[00:14:10] break a new record according to a new estimate from the
[00:14:13] National Supply Company. The numbers
[00:14:16] confirmed the positive expectation with more than
[00:14:18] 366 million tons. The highlight of
[00:14:22] performance is Soy. The person who comes with all the data
[00:14:25] and brings a complete overview is the president of CONAB, Silvio Porto. Hi
[00:14:29] Silvio, good morning to you.
[00:14:32] Good morning Kelly, it's a pleasure once again to be here on Record News Rural
[00:14:36] always following this important
[00:14:39] program of yours that disseminates our
[00:14:43] information, we are very grateful, as are those who accompany us
[00:14:46] here. And we, of course, keep an eye on, always on these estimates from
[00:14:50] Conab. What is the reason for yet another positive
[00:14:53] number, with the expectation of
[00:14:55] a record?
[00:14:57] Well, we have, once again, soybeans and corn, especially
[00:15:01] corn, I would even say, pushing this
[00:15:04] harvest up. We have
[00:15:07] area growth in practically all
[00:15:10] crops. At this moment, we are only
[00:15:13] identifying in relation to the perspective for the
[00:15:17] next harvest a small decrease in area
[00:15:20] in relation to the second bean harvest, but this
[00:15:24] may... not even be confirmed, perhaps due to the
[00:15:27] process aí in relation to prices and weather, we
[00:15:31] may even have a better performance in this
[00:15:34] regard. I would highlight here, in fact,
[00:15:37] the first corn harvest is something that brings
[00:15:41] us a very positive
[00:15:44] outlook because the first harvest is very important for the south of Brazil, especially for the supply
[00:15:48] of feed for
[00:15:52] chickens, eggs, pigs,
[00:15:55] and dairy cattle.
[00:15:59] So this increase in the production of the first
[00:16:03] corn harvest in the south of Brazil is very relevant
[00:16:06] and... I have to say that also, despite El
[00:16:10] Niño, corn generally does not have problems
[00:16:13] in terms of productivity or
[00:16:16] performance in production with excessive rain, it
[00:16:20] performs very well, and perhaps for this reason, we have a
[00:16:24] more significant growth, in addition to the price of corn
[00:16:27] and soybeans that are pulling up, along with rice,
[00:16:31] a much better outlook for this harvest in terms of price.
[00:16:35] Silvio, you mentioned how the issue of feed is important,
[00:16:39] right? To encourage the producer in corn
[00:16:42] cultivation. But there's a topic that's always on our radar, which is the issue of
[00:16:46] biofuels, ethanol from corn. It's also
[00:16:49] a driving force that literally encourages
[00:16:52] the crop, isn't it?
[00:16:54] Absolutely, especially if we observe the performance of the
[00:16:58] corn harvest in the Midwest, especially in Mato
[00:17:01] Grosso, where the main corn
[00:17:05] processing plants for
[00:17:07] ethanol are located. That's what has greatly driven the increase in
[00:17:11] corn production in the second harvest. So
[00:17:15] ethanol has also been
[00:17:19] let's remember, in this case,
[00:17:23] after the extraction of ethanol, what
[00:17:26] remains also goes to animal feed,
[00:17:29] DDG, and other by-products that are still used
[00:17:33] as a way to also enter this supply
[00:17:37] chain that is destined for feed. I think this is also
[00:17:40] quite relevant. Well, we are talking about the domestic market,
[00:17:43] but CONAB also estimates an increase in international
[00:17:47] demand.
[00:17:48] Yes, mainly what
[00:17:52] is, I would say, what is happening due to El Niño
[00:17:56] in the United States, Europe,
[00:17:59] that is what has caused prices to
[00:18:03] rise, because there is a sign of a
[00:18:06] decrease in production, and this means that Brazil
[00:18:10] will occupy an even more
[00:18:13] relevant position in the scenario for next
[00:18:17] year, starting with the soybean harvest at the beginning of the
[00:18:21] year, then subsequently, mainly for the second semester with
[00:18:25] the second corn harvest. So Brazil will become the main player
[00:18:28] possibly in the supply of next year, exactly why
[00:18:32] we already have future corn prices at
[00:18:36] R$80 and... soybeans around 150,
[00:18:39] exactly driven by this context in which there is a crop
[00:18:43] failure at an international level,
[00:18:47] and for this reason, we had yesterday, Kelly,
[00:18:50] several international observers from
[00:18:53] the US embassies, France, the
[00:18:57] people from England, there were people
[00:19:01] here from Australia, in short, there were many international
[00:19:04] observers, United
[00:19:07] Kingdom, who were present with us precisely
[00:19:10] to verify, to follow this launch of the 26
[00:19:14] and 27 outlook precisely because of the context, because of Brazil's
[00:19:18] relevance in the supply, especially of soybeans and corn next year. Indeed,
[00:19:22] these are important products where we shine, right?
[00:19:25] We know Brazil's importance. Now, Silvio, let's talk a little
[00:19:29] more about soybeans, let's detail a little more, because we know our
[00:19:33] importance, and also the importance of the Chinese market, when it comes to soybean
[00:19:37] exports. Should we have an
[00:19:40] adjustment in production to adjust demand a little, so as not to
[00:19:43] have too much left over? What is CONAB's
[00:19:46] analysis?
[00:19:48] No, exactly because of what is happening in the
[00:19:52] international scenario, for Brazil, this
[00:19:55] increase that is being signaled here, there is no risk
[00:19:58] of a price drop, on the contrary,
[00:20:01] it may eventually have
[00:20:05] more consolidated things in terms of... what El Niño will
[00:20:09] really cause in the international scenario, and even here in
[00:20:12] Brazil, because it is also important that we have
[00:20:16] clear what we are signaling, this is important, we
[00:20:20] have an El Niño context that is quite concerning, we do not
[00:20:24] know exactly what the response will be
[00:20:27] in terms of rainfall here for the Midwest,
[00:20:30] for example, we believe in a delay in rainfall, or
[00:20:34] rather, yesterday here in Brasília it rained something
[00:20:38] that is not common, something that I would say rained
[00:20:42] early, which would be a good sign,
[00:20:45] our concern is precisely this beginning of rain that...
[00:20:50] can still happen within this month of the transition from
[00:20:53] September to October, but how will it follow,
[00:20:57] what will the scenario be if we have any problems with irregularity
[00:21:00] in these rains? This is our main point of attention, Kelly, so we
[00:21:04] are, on the other hand, we also know
[00:21:08] that if there are even sparse rains and they
[00:21:11] ensure that they have a reasonable level, let's say,
[00:21:15] for each rain, this can calmly allow
[00:21:19] even with... reality allowed good performance of
[00:21:22] the crops, so I think this is an aspect, that's why we will be
[00:21:25] in the field every month with our team, following what is
[00:21:29] happening, especially until the end of December, so that we
[00:21:33] know how the entire planting scenario was, then
[00:21:37] after that, in the development of the crops from January, that is,
[00:21:40] every month we are in the field doing our surveys, we have about
[00:21:44] 80 technicians, our technical team that goes
[00:21:48] to about 650 municipalities, we have
[00:21:52] huge itineraries, large ones that we circulate through all the
[00:21:56] regions, the main producing regions of this country,
[00:21:59] precisely so that together with satellite image monitoring,
[00:22:02] our models here for
[00:22:06] crop forecasts can provide real data,
[00:22:10] field data combined with our office team
[00:22:13] that compiles these information so that we have
[00:22:17] the best possible monitoring of what will develop
[00:22:21] over the next few months, we are projecting
[00:22:24] lower productivity for all crops, but
[00:22:28] even so, we are projecting, we are being optimistic
[00:22:31] in this sense, we are projecting a larger
[00:22:34] harvest, for the third consecutive year we will have the
[00:22:38] third record harvest in Brazil. Well, we
[00:22:42] hope that happens, Silvio. Now, let's talk about a
[00:22:45] very important food that is present daily in Brazilian
[00:22:49] families. Let's talk a little about rice, because until recently we've been
[00:22:53] following here, including with CONAB, the drama of
[00:22:56] producers who often cannot cover their production
[00:23:00] costs. Now it seems that the scenario is a little different. What can
[00:23:03] we say about this crop?
[00:23:07] I think we have reached a point that seems to be one of
[00:23:11] balance, in the sense of having prices for producers
[00:23:15] that provide remuneration, that guarantee the
[00:23:18] planting, that open up a more positive expectation from
[00:23:21] the productive sector. I would say that prices between R$
[00:23:25] 80 and R$ 90 at the producer level is a good level,
[00:23:29] this ensures that we can have
[00:23:32] prices for consumers also within a reasonable level, let's say,
[00:23:36] that does not impact inflation, that effectively guarantees domestic
[00:23:40] supply, because it also doesn't help for us to have very low prices
[00:23:44] for producers, because this ends up being a disincentive and
[00:23:47] the government is always very concerned about this. That's why
[00:23:51] rice, within the scope of CONAB, along with corn, were the
[00:23:54] two products for which we allocated the most resources,
[00:23:58] the government guaranteed that we would allocate
[00:24:01] from 2024, for example, we put 1 billion reais precisely to
[00:24:05] stimulate production, anticipating the purchase of
[00:24:09] 500,000 tons. Unfortunately, at that time,
[00:24:12] there was no adherence from producers, and
[00:24:15] certainly this measure by the productive
[00:24:19] sector led to the problem that
[00:24:22] occurred in 25 and 26, mainly with the
[00:24:25] low prices until mid-this year. Even so, in 26,
[00:24:29] we entered with marketing premiums precisely to
[00:24:32] help with commercialization and guarantee a minimum price for
[00:24:35] part of this production. We made another
[00:24:39] purchase. We have today about 294,000 tons in
[00:24:43] stock. We understand that it is
[00:24:46] it is very important for us to guarantee regularity in this...
[00:24:50] this production in the sense that the producers feel comfortable and
[00:24:53] stimulated to produce in the same way that we have prices at the consumer
[00:24:57] level to ensure that all the Brazilian population, especially
[00:25:01] low-income people, can also have access to quality food, especially
[00:25:05] rice and beans, which are two very important products
[00:25:09] in the food culture of our people, and
[00:25:12] it is fundamental that we maintain this
[00:25:15] culture and do not allow products like
[00:25:19] ultra-processed foods to replace what is so relevant
[00:25:22] in the daily lives of the Brazilian people, in the plate of the Brazilian
[00:25:26] people, which is rice and beans. So let's talk about beans now, because there should
[00:25:30] be a slight increase in production.
[00:25:33] What is CONAB's analysis?
[00:25:36] So, we are placing it with stability, right? We are
[00:25:40] close to 3 million tons, we believe that the
[00:25:43] scenario is possible for this. We do have a concern
[00:25:47] regarding the harvest because there is at least
[00:25:50] the
[00:25:53] expectation or the projections for El Niño place it for the
[00:25:57] first quarter of next year. If we
[00:26:01] have a lot of rain it ends up creating a problem
[00:26:05] at harvest time, right? So we hope that at this moment
[00:26:08] the rains are already less intense. The entire scenario
[00:26:12] of greater intensity is set for October,
[00:26:15] November. Certainly the product that I would say will suffer
[00:26:19] the most will be wheat in Rio Grande do Sul, which will coincide with harvest
[00:26:23] time. This can really cause a drop in
[00:26:26] quality, but we believe that for beans there is a
[00:26:30] very positive and calm scenario, including stability, right? Due to the
[00:26:33] price for producers, we will have
[00:26:36] around 3 million tons, which guarantees and ensures
[00:26:39] the domestic supply in Brazil. Going back to the issue
[00:26:42] of rice,
[00:26:45] perhaps some, especially in Rio Grande do Sul,
[00:26:49] find it strange that we have placed an area stability there, but
[00:26:52] it is important to say, we are recognizing a small decrease in area in
[00:26:56] Rio Grande do Sul, but we are still understanding that it is
[00:27:00] too early for us to actually pinpoint what this possible
[00:27:03] daily reduction will be, because as prices
[00:27:07] are stimulating and there is still a possibility
[00:27:10] until the end of November for planting,
[00:27:13] so we still have to follow up, actually, rice is
[00:27:17] starting to be planted, so we have to follow up, especially October, November, going to the
[00:27:21] field, checking what is happening so that we can
[00:27:24] really have a clearer scenario in
[00:27:28] relation to the area and production of rice. We think that
[00:27:32] the more attractive prices at this moment, they
[00:27:35] are compensating in relation to possible climatic
[00:27:39] problems, and therefore, in addition to this, we are also
[00:27:42] identifying an increase in production in the Midwest, Tocantins,
[00:27:46] and we believe that in this way, given that we placed
[00:27:49] it slightly below 11 million tons, it is a
[00:27:53] quite feasible projection for the next harvest. To conclude, why
[00:27:56] in the case of cotton, the sown area should
[00:28:00] return to the level of the 24/25
[00:28:04] harvest?
[00:28:07] Well, there is price attractiveness, right, and
[00:28:10] also Brazilian exports, right, that
[00:28:13] even though we had a record harvest this year, we
[00:28:17] had a small reduction in area in the
[00:28:21] previous harvest, in the last harvest, but we had a
[00:28:24] compensation in terms of higher productivity. Brazil, even harvesting a
[00:28:27] record volume, we
[00:28:31] had a scenario of price stability,
[00:28:34] of attractiveness in the international market,
[00:28:38] and certainly this is the scenario that guarantees and
[00:28:41] encourages producers to continue believing that it
[00:28:44] is possible to even recover the area and therefore not
[00:28:48] jeopardize production in terms of price depression. So I think
[00:28:51] that for next year, the scenario is very
[00:28:55] positive in terms of us being able to harvest,
[00:28:58] everything, of course, will depend on climatic issues
[00:29:02] as always, but we believe that we can
[00:29:05] have another record harvest of
[00:29:08] 366.6 million tons that
[00:29:11] we are estimating for the Brazilian
[00:29:13] grain harvest, in addition to 34 million, a
[00:29:17] growth of 42% also in meat production
[00:29:21] for the next cycle. Silvio, it was very
[00:29:24] important to hear you, thank you, we are always open to
[00:29:27] you, to Conab, have a good day, see you
[00:29:30] next time. Good morning Kelly, thank you very much, I also
[00:29:34] thank you very much for the opportunity and we are always available, thank you, big hug
[00:29:38] to everyone, a hug and this edition of
[00:29:41] Record News Fural ends here, thank you for your audience, we'll see
[00:29:45] you in the next program, agreed? See you then!