RECORDNEWS — broadcast
20260917 163000 UTC
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[00:05:06] The super Wednesday ended with a cut in the basic interest rate here in
[00:05:10] Brazil. Selic fell 0.25
[00:05:13] percentage points and went from 14 to
[00:05:18] year. On the other hand, in the United States,
[00:05:22] the interest rate rose
[00:05:24] 0.25 percentage points, staying between
[00:05:30] year. A measure that was even criticized by President Donald Trump.
[00:05:33] To understand this economic scenario and what it means for
[00:05:37] our pockets, we connect with economist Ricardo Buzo. Hi
[00:05:40] Ricardo, good afternoon to you.
[00:05:43] Good afternoon Kelly, good afternoon everyone, always a pleasure to be here. Well, as we had
[00:05:47] already anticipated, what the market said, happened, didn't
[00:05:51] it? Exactly, no surprises
[00:05:54] at all, but just because there were no surprises doesn't mean everything is calm,
[00:05:58] right? To start, in the United States, the new president of
[00:06:02] the Fed, Kevin Warsh, was nominated by Trump with the mission
[00:06:05] of cutting interest rates, because in Trump's view, the previous
[00:06:09] president wasn't doing it, the rate had been stalled for three years, I think.
[00:06:12] So, this in itself is a big
[00:06:16] right? What happens is that Brazil and
[00:06:19] the United States are on opposite paths,
[00:06:23] right? In the United States, inflation is hitting,
[00:06:26] these constant war scenarios affect
[00:06:29] inflation, especially with oil prices,
[00:06:32] right? All this confusion and they are very dependent
[00:06:36] on oil. Their annual inflation is at
[00:06:38] 3.4%, they want 2%. So,
[00:06:42] it was a scenario that everyone expected for this. In
[00:06:45] Brazil, pardon me, in Brazil, the path is the
[00:06:49] opposite. Inflation is returning to the target, still
[00:06:52] not at the center of the target, but it has returned after being
[00:06:56] so out of it, right? So
[00:06:59] activity is now really showing signs of weakness, so it's a very
[00:07:03] typical scenario for this. Inflation in 12 months running at
[00:07:06] 4.2%, center of the target
[00:07:09] 3%, right? So, these movements, the point is that the
[00:07:12] economies are much
[00:07:16] more interconnected than they seem, and why is this?
[00:07:20] The United States, the US economy is the world's benchmark, so
[00:07:23] all analysts worldwide look at what this country
[00:07:27] offers in terms of interest rates compared to what I have in the United States,
[00:07:31] which would be a safe haven economy.
[00:07:34] And this movement now, with rates
[00:07:37] rising there and falling here, what does it do? It's closing
[00:07:41] the famous gap... because we have to look at the
[00:07:44] differential. If we look back a short time ago, in April, for example,
[00:07:48] when the rate, before April,
[00:07:51] year and there it was at 3.5%, we're talking about a
[00:07:54] differential of 11.5%. Now with these new rates,
[00:07:58] it has already fallen to 10%. And this always
[00:08:01] carries risks of many, many impacts,
[00:08:04] because capital doesn't take affront, Kelly, it moves to
[00:08:08] any part of the world whenever it wants. That's right, so
[00:08:12] we have to monitor, because we always say here on the connection, we
[00:08:15] always talk about economics here that no country is an island, right? And
[00:08:19] we always have economic repercussions depending on what
[00:08:22] happens in other locations. Now, still
[00:08:25] focusing on us,
[00:08:29] the basic interest rate in Brazil was considered
[00:08:32] insufficient by industrial and labor
[00:08:35] entities, which say it doesn't alleviate the financial situation of companies and
[00:08:38] families. For the National Confederation of Industry, for example,
[00:08:42] there was an excess of prudence by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in relation to the
[00:08:45] behavior of the fall in inflation in recent months. We
[00:08:48] have also been analyzing here for a long time that the
[00:08:52] remedy to contain inflation, which would be this basic interest rate
[00:08:56] at exorbitant levels, has turned into poison for many companies
[00:08:59] that generate jobs and income, because money is expensive, so they can't make
[00:09:03] investments, can they?
[00:09:06] Exactly, it's absolutely natural that these
[00:09:09] entities that defend employment and production
[00:09:12] complain, because it's really very difficult, it's
[00:09:16] a very adverse scenario for these two ends, and it's
[00:09:20] important that they make this kind of criticism, it's part of it and it has to
[00:09:24] be this way. Now, it's also important to remember an analogy
[00:09:27] that I really like for macroeconomics,
[00:09:30] macroeconomics is like a transatlantic ship, you
[00:09:33] maneuver now to have the effect of the maneuver
[00:09:37] later. So, even if this cut of 0.25
[00:09:41] hadn't been so timid as it has been, if it were double
[00:09:44] that, 0.5%. It wouldn't have any
[00:09:47] effect at this moment, why? These decisions on
[00:09:51] monetary policy, they have a period of 9
[00:09:54] to 18 months to start taking effect. So,
[00:09:58] despite it being only 0.25, it has been
[00:10:01] constant, and since 15%, which was stalled
[00:10:05] for a long, long time, the cuts have been
[00:10:08] successive and constant,
[00:10:11] 0.25. With this, it has already reduced
[00:10:14] 1.25 percentage points, 1.25
[00:10:17] points, and from 15 to
[00:10:20] 13.75%, this is considerable and still
[00:10:24] hasn't even... started, it's still in the queue, the effects haven't arrived, all
[00:10:28] this will happen. So what the central bank needs is some
[00:10:32] parsimony too so as not to miscalculate. Where can
[00:10:36] it miscalculate? Mainly in uncertainties. For you who are so
[00:10:39] tuned into the agri-universe, Kelly, one of the biggest uncertainties that
[00:10:43] the whole world has is El Niño, right? It's not
[00:10:46] far, according to scientists, from starting to have an effect.
[00:10:49] I take it off now to put it back later. This
[00:10:52] parsimony is better. So the effects will
[00:10:55] still happen, there's a lot more to come, exactly, right?
[00:10:59] And look, still talking about this
[00:11:02] whole scenario, sometimes they ask me, Ricardo, is our economy
[00:11:06] good or bad? I say, it depends, what's your perspective on it? Because if we
[00:11:10] broaden it, we really see that Brazil's situation is still
[00:11:13] better compared to other countries in the world, right? We see what's happening
[00:11:17] in the Middle East and how the Strait of Hormuz, right?
[00:11:21] The situation is complicated, it's an important point for exporting
[00:11:25] oil to the whole world and how this has already generated a ripple
[00:11:28] effect on the price. And here,
[00:11:31] Petrobras increased the selling price of diesel to
[00:11:35] distributors, effective today, it now costs R$1
[00:11:39] more per liter. Even so, prices should be
[00:11:42] maintained due to the new federal government subsidy that guarantees
[00:11:46] a discount of the same value. The benefit will be valid for 30
[00:11:49] days. This incentive comes to add to the R$1.12
[00:11:53] per liter subsidy that is already in effect and is valid
[00:11:57] until September 26th. Well, we always
[00:12:01] say subsidies take money out of the caixa, at a time when we have to
[00:12:05] do the fiscal adjustment. We are always keeping an eye on
[00:12:08] government accounts too, but the fact is that the situation is very
[00:12:12] complicated. We don't know yet when this conflict in the Middle East will end,
[00:12:15] and as they say, it's important even for agribusiness, as
[00:12:19] you mentioned, and how it impacts several
[00:12:21] chains, right? Exactly, these
[00:12:25] last benefit is by provisional
[00:12:28] measure, so it's also valid until the end of September and it's
[00:12:32] always important to keep in mind that Petrobras is a company, despite public
[00:12:36] control, it is a company,
[00:12:38] sorry, it is a company listed on the stock exchange, publicly traded, that
[00:12:42] has to report to shareholders, that needs
[00:12:45] to correct costs, follow
[00:12:49] the market, correct import prices, since a good part of
[00:12:52] the diesel is imported, so it cannot open a... it already
[00:12:55] did this in the past in other cases and it caused problems, so this
[00:12:59] needs to be always very well studied. The government
[00:13:03] comes with these subsidies, let's remember, you said it well, right? There
[00:13:06] was already a R$1.12 per liter one, now it adds
[00:13:10] R$1 per liter, we are talking about R$ 2.12,
[00:13:14] valid approximately until the end of the month, then we have to think about
[00:13:18] what will happen if these prices do not return and the subsidies
[00:13:22] end. It will have to think again about putting in, otherwise the impact
[00:13:25] on inflation is big. How much does it cost? The first
[00:13:28] subsidy costs approximately R$ 5.5 billion
[00:13:32] per month and the second subsidy about R$ 5
[00:13:35] billion per month. How is it
[00:13:38] financed? Well, part of it was that
[00:13:41] joint measure that came that Petrobras, despite importing diesel,
[00:13:45] exports oil, not only Petrobras, but more than
[00:13:48] 90%, for sure, it gains from this, so a
[00:13:52] taxation was created to finance part of this
[00:13:55] account, a taxation for Petrobras, and the other part of the account is
[00:13:59] really by the treasury and of course, in times of need
[00:14:03] for fiscal adjustment, for fiscal policy off track, we
[00:14:06] always think about the cost, how to do it. On the other hand, if
[00:14:10] we don't do it, we are in a country that is extremely
[00:14:14] road-dependent, right? The impact of the
[00:14:17] diesel price can be excessively
[00:14:20] strong for our inflation, so in the first case with the government's
[00:14:24] subsidies, we divide it with the whole population. Now
[00:14:28] in the second case, if it leads to inflation it will also divide with the whole population
[00:14:32] and further affect the vulnerable who spend a larger part of their
[00:14:35] income on food and the problem
[00:14:38] is, Ricardo, that we really don't yet have an
[00:14:41] overview of how this Middle East conflict
[00:14:45] will unfold. Now, in recent
[00:14:48] days, we even saw oil prices
[00:14:51] rise again with Houthi attacks, including in Saudi
[00:14:55] Arabia. So we are seeing an escalation that
[00:14:58] creates insecurity, doesn't it? Yes, this
[00:15:01] insecurity is lasting too long, right? And this is
[00:15:05] the worst possible scenario, because
[00:15:09] what tends to happen is more or less
[00:15:12] like the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has been going on for years. In the beginning,
[00:15:16] everyone thought 6 months, 2 months, 1
[00:15:20] year, but all that has passed. We have to get used to
[00:15:23] prices with these conditions, so oil is not far
[00:15:27] from that, even though it is a commodity that is more
[00:15:31] protected in the world and of more interest, but there is no prospect
[00:15:34] whatsoever, and this is not just for us, the whole world
[00:15:38] lives with this problem. At least we
[00:15:41] benefit on the other side to have some kind of
[00:15:44] compensation, because we are net oil
[00:15:47] exporters. Now imagine those who depend solely on buying,
[00:15:50] the problem can be greater, that's why I said earlier,
[00:15:54] Ricardo, that when we look at Brazil's situation
[00:15:57] compared to other countries, we say: "Oops, so we
[00:16:01] obviously feel the effects, but perhaps with less
[00:16:04] intensity," yes. We feel it with less
[00:16:08] intensity, yes, because even our attraction
[00:16:11] of capital is greater than that. When you look at our
[00:16:15] scenario as a major oil producer, with pre-salt, with new
[00:16:18] discoveries, with drilling in the Amazon
[00:16:21] estuary, we reach a scenario where, although I
[00:16:24] have an import need due to refining capacity, which everyone
[00:16:28] says, "Oh, but it should refine and
[00:16:32] that's it." For how many years have we been? It's important to remember that investments
[00:16:36] in refining are quite heavy. So, even though we have this
[00:16:39] refining bottleneck, raw material we
[00:16:43] have, and in abundance, especially after the pre-salt. So it's
[00:16:47] a better situation than the rest of the world, only
[00:16:50] dependent on buying oil. From an economic
[00:16:54] point of view, if the government didn't offer these subsidies
[00:16:57] that you already mentioned the monthly value, it's really enough to
[00:17:00] scare, right, Ricardo? We could say that the burden on the
[00:17:04] pockets of the productive sector and the final consumer, because we have to think about the
[00:17:08] final consumer, it would certainly increase?
[00:17:10] Certainly, because the
[00:17:13] final consumer will pay the bill as much as their
[00:17:17] pocket can, right? And this can mainly affect
[00:17:20] lower-income families who depend
[00:17:23] on buying food, for
[00:17:26] mere subsistence, depend on their income, it
[00:17:30] can be more affected. But there's a limit to this passing on. It reaches a point
[00:17:34] where they no longer buy essentials, then the producer
[00:17:37] holds part of these losses up to the limit they
[00:17:40] can, even to closing doors. So the ripple
[00:17:43] effect is huge, both for the final consumer and for the
[00:17:47] producer, entrepreneur, anyone in this whole chain. Now,
[00:17:51] still looking at Brazil to try to understand our
[00:17:54] strengths and also challenges, Ricardo, we know about ethanol
[00:17:58] here, we are a reference in this fuel for
[00:18:02] a long time also, with corn ethanol
[00:18:05] expanding beyond sugarcane ethanol.
[00:18:09] There's the issue of biofuels, how do you
[00:18:12] evaluate Brazil in this sense, also
[00:18:15] for us to try to feel less, these geopolitical impacts
[00:18:19] that really put us in a very
[00:18:22] complicated situation, because of course the world still needs diesel,
[00:18:26] we can't deny that, we too, but when we
[00:18:30] look at this side, biofuels, how does Brazil fit into this
[00:18:33] scenario? We are already seeing even airplanes
[00:18:38] and ships with biofuels, right? Brazil has the upper
[00:18:42] hand in what the world wants, which is this energy
[00:18:45] transition, this is very important for us, our
[00:18:48] ethanol, a clean fuel, planted,
[00:18:52] renewed, it dates
[00:18:55] back to the 1970s, how much technology and how much social
[00:18:59] advancement we have already accumulated since then, so
[00:19:02] this Brazilian power must indeed
[00:19:06] be exported and they must pay for this solution that we
[00:19:09] created, it's all here in our hands,
[00:19:13] in fact, besides having what the world wants, there's the
[00:19:16] possibility of getting out of geopolitical conflicts through
[00:19:20] highly developed self-production, increasingly
[00:19:24] productive, and this is breaking down a paradox that exists
[00:19:27] regarding production in competition with food production, and our agribusiness,
[00:19:31] especially through sugarcane energy,
[00:19:35] it demonstrates very well how it manages
[00:19:39] to gain with increases in producing more, with productivity gains,
[00:19:43] and this is the solution for the world in any, not
[00:19:46] just in agriculture, but the world needs to grow based on productivity
[00:19:50] gains, which is why agriculture grows in a sustained
[00:19:54] manner and can teach many segments around the
[00:19:57] world. Well, after all this analysis,
[00:20:01] is it possible for us to predict what might
[00:20:04] happen from now on, Ricardo, regarding this
[00:20:07] subsidy, regarding the price of fuels, or is the scenario still very
[00:20:11] uncertain? Look, this subsidy has
[00:20:15] an end date, right? It's set for the end of
[00:20:18] September, it's right around the corner. When this type of policy
[00:20:22] is implemented, it's because it says: "Look, I don't have a forecast right now,
[00:20:25] I'll set it until such a date, that it should be punctual and
[00:20:29] improve." This "punctual" is very relative, because sometimes it's
[00:20:33] hitting 80, sometimes it's hitting 100, and how do you
[00:20:36] plan, how do you work with that? So if there isn't
[00:20:39] a definitive solution in this scenario we
[00:20:43] have of dependence on road transport and
[00:20:46] impact on inflation, it will certainly need to be
[00:20:50] renewed. I see no other alternative, despite the
[00:20:53] fiscal scenario, exactly. Well, anyway, Brazil is a
[00:20:56] power in food production and we also have Petrobras, we have our
[00:21:00] riches, right? And it's important that we use these resources well,
[00:21:04] and protect them too. Thank you, Ricardo, a good afternoon to
[00:21:07] you, good afternoon, always available, a hug,
[00:21:11] a hug. Look, the United States government accuses
[00:21:14] Brazil of failing to combat criminal factions
[00:21:18] linked to drug trafficking, such as PCC and Comando Vermelho. Let's
[00:21:21] see: a document signed by Donald
[00:21:25] Trump states that the Brazilian government failed to
[00:21:28] confront terrorist organizations
[00:21:32] designated as the First Capital Command and the Red Command, and says that
[00:21:36] these factions have transformed Brazil into
[00:21:39] a global distribution center for cocaine.
[00:21:42] Still, according to the document, these organizations represent
[00:21:46] a growing threat to peace and security throughout
[00:21:50] the world. The Brazilian government needs to
[00:21:53] urgently take vigorous measures to
[00:21:55] defeat them. The presidential determination was released by the
[00:21:59] State Department and sent here to Congress.
[00:22:03] In the document, the White House says that the inclusion of a country in the
[00:22:06] report does not necessarily represent
[00:22:09] a criticism of the local government, because geographical,
[00:22:13] commercial, and economic
[00:22:16] factors are also considered. The document identifies 23 countries
[00:22:20] considered major drug producers or
[00:22:23] important drug trafficking routes. The
[00:22:26] report highlights Afghanistan, Bolivia,
[00:22:29] Myanmar, and Colombia as nations that have not made substantial
[00:22:33] efforts to fulfill international commitments
[00:22:37] to combat drug
[00:22:39] trafficking.
[00:22:44] Well, the Brazilian government, through the Ministry of Justice and Public
[00:22:47] Security, responded to the American
[00:22:50] accusations. The Brazilian note refutes the
[00:22:53] US allegations. The Ministry of Justice and Public
[00:22:57] Security denied any failures or omissions in
[00:23:00] confronting transnational organized crime.
[00:23:03] It also recalled that Brazil was not
[00:23:07] included in the list of countries formally
[00:23:10] classified by the United States as major transit
[00:23:13] or illicit drug production routes.
[00:23:17] In another passage, it is highlighted that the American government
[00:23:20] disregards measures adopted by Brazil such as
[00:23:24] the anti-faction law, the operations to combat organized
[00:23:27] crime by federal task forces, the existing
[00:23:31] cooperation between Brazil and the United
[00:23:34] States. President Lula said he will have a chat with Trump this
[00:23:37] weekend at the UN General Assembly.
[00:23:40] And a survey released this Wednesday shows
[00:23:44] that the majority of Brazilians dream of retiring by the age of 60,
[00:23:47] but few believe
[00:23:51] they will be able to stop working at that age.
[00:23:54] What to expect from the future after many years of
[00:23:58] work? We always try to work while young to
[00:24:01] build something for the future to live a more
[00:24:05] peaceful old age. A survey revealed a
[00:24:08] disconnect between the dream and
[00:24:11] reality. For the majority of respondents,
[00:24:14] six out of 10, the ideal time to retire would be
[00:24:18] at 60 years old. But only three out of 10
[00:24:22] people believe it will be possible to stop
[00:24:26] working at this age. As long as God gives me
[00:24:29] health, I'll be in the battle. At
[00:24:32] 46 years old, with children still young, Raquel
[00:24:36] believes she will need to work until she is
[00:24:39] 70. The retirement we will have, if we will have any,
[00:24:42] eh, will be minimal, I don't think it's possible to stop.
[00:24:46] With the possibility of changes in retirement rules,
[00:24:50] to adjust the social security accounts, the recommendation of
[00:24:53] specialists is to prepare early for the time
[00:24:56] to stop, increasingly learn to
[00:24:59] plan, the sooner people start saving
[00:25:03] the better. Gabriel has a plan not to
[00:25:06] depend only on INSS, I'm building a
[00:25:09] reserve, a portfolio for the future, if I need to use
[00:25:13] it. After the break we'll talk about
[00:25:16] elections, but first I have an invitation for you who use WhatsApp.
[00:25:21] Record News is on WhatsApp, more
[00:25:23] agility and precision in the palm of your hand and there you
[00:25:27] stay on top of the main news from Brazil and the world,
[00:25:30] all of this on your cell phone and to access it's very simple,
[00:25:34] go to updates, channels and look for the
[00:25:38] Record News channel, in the upper right corner click the
[00:25:41] bell to receive all notifications, connect
[00:25:45] and find out what's happening in real time, 24 hours a
[00:25:49] day. do you
[00:25:51] trust?
[00:25:58] health moment eleve senior
[00:26:02] with age, eyes wear out and without the right
[00:26:05] care seeing becomes increasingly
[00:26:08] difficult.
[00:26:10] do you think the lamp in your house is weak? the problem is not
[00:26:14] with the light, it's with your eyes.
[00:26:18] do you have difficulty seeing the face of someone in your family? All of this
[00:26:22] can be a sign of cataracts. cataracts make everything
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[00:26:32] I recommend lever 4.0. It
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[00:27:58] I never know how my day will end, that's why it needs to start
[00:28:01] the best way. A tapioca from the land, healthy,
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[00:28:12] for an afternoon snack, with olive oil, banana and honey,
[00:28:16] red fruits, hmm, tapioca from the
[00:28:19] land, much more practicality without neglecting
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[00:30:31] new rule generates controversy: follow the
[00:30:34] news from the sector that feeds Brazil, the world of the program
[00:30:38] that brings the main news from the countryside. The
[00:30:41] agribusiness universe highlighted. Did you know that a good
[00:30:45] part of what we consume comes from small producers? That's
[00:30:48] where the idea of building stylish houses
[00:30:52] for bees came from.