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20261004 213000 UTC
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[00:00:00] very influential, from Teotônio Vilela to
[00:00:03] Renan Calheiros, to Artur
[00:00:06] Lira, it has an enormous trajectory, Alagoas always collaborates and
[00:00:10] contributes, from a public
[00:00:13] policy perspective, to national policy. We have Artur Lira and Renan Calheiros
[00:00:17] in confrontation
[00:00:20] some polls, he reaches above again, both are candidates for the Senate. In this case,
[00:00:23] Renan Calheiros is on his son's ticket, Renan Filho, and
[00:00:26] Artur Lira is on JHC's ticket to try
[00:00:30] for the Senate. At this moment, we are seeing Artur
[00:00:34] Lira ahead of Renan Calheiros, but
[00:00:37] this is not necessarily
[00:00:40] the final result, because
[00:00:43] Marina JHC, who is the wife of candidate
[00:00:47] JHC, is in the lead in the state
[00:00:50] according to research institutes. Husband and wife doing very
[00:00:53] well, exactly. That's what we'll be following tonight,
[00:00:57] who will ultimately come out in the first or second spot for Alagoas.
[00:01:01] It's possible that Marina JHC will
[00:01:05] remove one of these two chiefs we're seeing on your screen, Artur Lira, the former speaker
[00:01:09] of the chamber, or Renan Calheiros, the famous
[00:01:12] senator with a very long
[00:01:14] Eduardo Ridel that career, from the Collor government until today in national politics. To Sergipe, but
[00:01:17] first, a new jump in the national count.
[00:01:21] Can we put the national screen for us? We were at 21% of the polls,
[00:01:25] we are now at almost 30, we reached 27%.
[00:01:29] There they are... the same disposition, right? Flávio Bolsonaro with 16
[00:01:32] million votes, Lula 3 million
[00:01:35] and force a second votes behind, it's 50 to 41, and abstentions
[00:01:38] jumped from 5 to 8 million.
[00:01:41] 8 million Brazilians who decided not to choose, or voted
[00:01:45] blank, or voted null, or didn't even vote. You know what would be interesting
[00:01:48] for us to try to find out, Edu, is what votes are entering
[00:01:52] the TSE computers. This question for our
[00:01:55] central to bring us now, because what happens when we are already 1 and a half
[00:01:59] hours into the count, right?
[00:02:02] Judging, taking as a basis that the polls closed at five, the data
[00:02:05] started to be forwarded to the Superior Electoral Court. It is very
[00:02:09] possible that this distance that Flávio
[00:02:11] is opening from Lula is being motivated by the
[00:02:16] Haddad is arriving at the hotel from arrival of votes from the states where Flávio has a lead, right?
[00:02:19] Notably the southern states, which traditionally are very quick
[00:02:23] in counting. This could be one of the reasons
[00:02:27] why Flávio Bolsonaro is
[00:02:30] always in the lead in the chart, and
[00:02:33] votes from the Northeast usually arrive later. It could be, it's a hypothesis, so it's interesting
[00:02:37] to know the proportion of vote arrivals. Anyway, the votes will
[00:02:41] arrive, in the end the result will have been consecrated. It's the
[00:02:44] anxiety of the count that causes this question, but it's a way
[00:02:48] for us to understand the reality we're narrating, right? That's it. Rio Grande do Norte
[00:02:51] has 30% of the count. Bahia has 16%. It confirms what you're saying.
[00:02:55] I think the progress, they're not that advanced. Let's see how the dispute is going
[00:02:59] there. In the Federal District, we have the Senate seats. There are two
[00:03:03] seats, huh? Two seats in this election. Michele Bolsonaro from the PL has
[00:03:06] 28 and Biakisses from the PL has 27. It's the
[00:03:10] pure blood ticket there, right? The PL is taking both
[00:03:13] seats at this moment. 91%. Look,
[00:03:17] we're getting there, we're getting there. How is the DF government doing? Let's see. Let's
[00:03:20] show the people now how the DF government is doing. A snapshot with
[00:03:23] 91% of the probable reelection of Celina
[00:03:27] Leão 49.8, or if she doesn't make it.
[00:03:31] If she continues with this performance, he'll take the dispute to the second
[00:03:34] round,
[00:03:37] but we have to last there in the DF, right? You see the fourth place candidate there from
[00:03:40] Novo is pushing. We have a confirmed reelection, it seems to be in Mato
[00:03:44] Grosso. Mato Grosso with Eduardo Ridel. We'll bring you that
[00:03:47] information with the screen in a little while. Yes, I was saying, Edu, that there in the
[00:03:51] DF, this fourth place candidate is pushing for a second
[00:03:55] round. He's the candidate from Novo, he's having
[00:03:59] a performance that... is forcing a second round, because for Celina
[00:04:02] Leão to reach 50, 50.1%, whatever
[00:04:05] it is, she needs to beat the trio there. Mato Grosso closed
[00:04:09] the bill, folks, please confirm it for us. We'll confirm it in a bit.
[00:04:13] Before that, let's go to Mato Grosso do Sul, Cris. Mato Grosso do Sul
[00:04:16] has the following numbers: Eduardo Ridel from the
[00:04:19] PP has 67, Fábio Trade from the PT
[00:04:23] with 23%. In sequence, João Henrique Catan
[00:04:27] and Delsídio Amaral, look at him there with 1% of the votes. That's
[00:04:31] it, Delsídio Amaral, who returns to politics, he was from the PT, he was
[00:04:34] from the Dilma government, he fought with the PT, he was even
[00:04:38] arrested in the scandals that occurred at the
[00:04:41] time, and abandoned politics for a long
[00:04:44] period. Now he returns to try for an elective office,
[00:04:48] and for governor, he left the legislative, went to the executive. He
[00:04:51] had been a senator, hadn't he? He had been elected by the PT, broke with the
[00:04:55] PT, a big confusion there at that time in the Dilma government, in
[00:04:59] fact the dispute is between Eduardo Ridel and the others,
[00:05:02] but Ridel has an enormous advantage, with more than
[00:05:06] double the votes of his opponent. We'll show you
[00:05:10] the dispute almost closed in Mato Grosso do Sul,
[00:05:13] before that let's jump to Sergipe. The state of
[00:05:16] Sergipe has the following vote configuration at this moment, with more
[00:05:20] than 35% of the polls counted, Fábio from PSD has
[00:05:23] 58 against
[00:05:26] 36% for Valmir, for Francisquinho from Republicans.
[00:05:30] Dr. Elton has problems with justice at this moment, so the votes are not
[00:05:34] considered, but 4.07 appear there, they don't make up
[00:05:37] the valid votes, that's what I'm referring to, Tati Cristina de Jesus
[00:05:41] appears on. Piauí calling, let's go to the data for the state of
[00:05:45] Piauí.
[00:05:49] You can check with us, new numbers for the dispute in Piauí, where
[00:05:52] Rafael Fonteles from the PT has 68%. This is a bill
[00:05:56] that should be defined tonight. João, Joel
[00:05:59] Rodrigues from the PP, 29%.
[00:06:03] Ah, so you have 42% of the votes. Piauí is one of the seven
[00:06:07] Brazilian states where you certainly have a definition this Sunday. Note,
[00:06:11] Edu, he will be the first governor elected by the PT in this first
[00:06:14] round, right? Rafael Fonteles. The PT is not
[00:06:18] expected to have a large number of governors, surprisingly.
[00:06:22] Eh, there are many disputes eh for a second
[00:06:25] round. There are other allies of President Lula
[00:06:29] in dispute eh to head
[00:06:32] the state governments, but this is a PT
[00:06:36] governor who will surely be elected in the first round. Rio de Janeiro
[00:06:39] next. Let's go to the numbers from Rio de Janeiro. The dispute at this point. For you,
[00:06:43] Douglas Ruas from the PL maintains the lead in the count with
[00:06:47] 15% of the polls counted,
[00:06:50] 50.17 to 41.21 for
[00:06:54] Eduardo Paes. You already know that Garotinho has a subjudice
[00:06:57] candidacy. William Sirido Pissol, who is a councilman, has
[00:07:01] 2.81%.
[00:07:04] And in São Paulo, what is the reality in the state of São Paulo? Let's go to the
[00:07:07] numbers. São Paulo has accelerated now, right?
[00:07:10] 28% of the polls counted. You have Tarcísio de Freitas from the
[00:07:14] Republicans with 65%, Fernando Haddad from the PT with
[00:07:17] 33% of the votes, more than 7 million
[00:07:21] votes already counted in the state of São Paulo. In this
[00:07:25] dispute, Fernando
[00:07:28] where he will make statements at the end of this first
[00:07:32] round, okay? So both candidates mobilized
[00:07:35] a lot in this final stretch, Fernando
[00:07:38] Haddad trying to bring votes from the national
[00:07:42] dispute to the state of São Paulo, but he faces the difficulty
[00:07:46] of the good approval of the government Tarcísio de Freitas, with
[00:07:49] 65% at this moment. Tarcísio also has
[00:07:53] the support, ah, go ahead, Cris, you can speak. I
[00:07:56] was commenting here with our central, that
[00:08:00] we should return to the transmission, because I wanted to comment on the position
[00:08:04] of Tarcísio de Freitas. This election of Tarcísio de
[00:08:06] Freitas projects him with great confidence for
[00:08:09] 2030. Tarcísio de Freitas, who
[00:08:13] was considered to be a presidential candidate
[00:08:16] in this election and was waiting
[00:08:19] in fact he also preferred
[00:08:23] to run for governor of the state of São
[00:08:26] Paulo because he already had a much easier election
[00:08:30] projected, an almost guaranteed reelection, and then
[00:08:33] Bolsonaro chooses Flávio Bolsonaro
[00:08:36] to contest the election for the PL, so Tarcísio
[00:08:40] remains in the Republicans, he remains.
[00:08:43] as a candidate for reelection for the government of São Paulo, but he is an
[00:08:46] extremely important player for 2030.
[00:08:50] He projects himself with this victory, which will surely
[00:08:53] be concluded tonight, a significant victory
[00:08:57] in São Paulo, confirming his governing style, a style,
[00:09:00] a tone of moderation,
[00:09:03] that seeks to have transit in other wings, without being disloyal to his
[00:09:07] godfather, who is Jair Bolsonaro, and with
[00:09:10] deliveries in the area of infrastructure. A government marked
[00:09:14] by privatizations, by
[00:09:16] concessions, in the liberal style, as is to the taste of
[00:09:19] conservative parties. He is liberal in economic
[00:09:23] management, in the management and issues
[00:09:27] related to infrastructure etc. He is conservative in
[00:09:30] customs to the taste of Republicans. Therefore, if
[00:09:33] Tarcísio de Freitas is elected in São
[00:09:36] Paulo, Cleitinho is elected in
[00:09:39] Minas Gerais and in Espírito Santo we also have a
[00:09:42] candidate from the Republicans. We have the Republicans governing
[00:09:46] eventually almost 40% of the Brazilian
[00:09:49] population, that's quite a lot, Cristina Lemos. The first governor
[00:09:52] to be reelected this Sunday is the governor of Mato Grosso do Sul,
[00:09:56] Eduardo Ridel. He has had 67, he has, right?
[00:10:00] 67.32% of the votes. Why do we say
[00:10:03] mathematically? Because it hasn't reached 100% of the polls. It has
[00:10:06] 85% of the polls, but the second place in this dispute
[00:10:10] can no longer turn the game around. He no longer has the conditions and votes to
[00:10:14] turn this game around in Mato Grosso do Sul, which is Fábio Trad
[00:10:17] from the PT. So we were in a dispute just now where the PT
[00:10:21] was leading, the PP was in second place, now it's inverted, right?
[00:10:25] Eduardo Ridel, from the Progressistas, pardon me, is
[00:10:29] mathematically elected with
[00:10:31] 67.39%. It is a case of re-election. Fábio
[00:10:35] Trade with 23% of
[00:10:38] the votes, Cris, at this point, confirms exactly what we were saying earlier, right? It was
[00:10:42] a guaranteed election, there it is, it's
[00:10:45] 67%, we're going to move towards 70%, right? of the intentions,
[00:10:49] of the votes for Eduardo Ridel. It's worth
[00:10:52] doing a recap of... the profile of
[00:10:55] Eduardo Ridel. So he's a governor from
[00:10:59] the Progressive Party. He's 57
[00:11:02] years old, he's a moderate, known for being a center-right
[00:11:06] moderate. He has a strong connection to the productive
[00:11:09] sector, aligned with conservative economic
[00:11:13] liberal agendas. There, at the
[00:11:16] head of the government of Mato Grosso, he has a technical management and he is even
[00:11:19] classified as a discreet technocrat, right?
[00:11:23] Prioritizes efficiency of the public machine, fiscal
[00:11:26] responsibility. Ridel's political base is the
[00:11:30] countryside. He was former president of the State Agricultural Federation.
[00:11:33] It is agribusiness that is the
[00:11:36] link for
[00:11:39] leads him now to reelection, and there in the state he supports
[00:11:43] Flávio Bolsonaro, but he is not a radical anti-PTist. He maintains
[00:11:46] dialogue with the federal government normally, and is
[00:11:49] pragmatic, as we said before, and his government, the
[00:11:53] government of Eduardo Ridel, ended with
[00:11:56] 75% popular approval. That is, a governor
[00:11:59] who delivers the government with more than 70% approval
[00:12:03] rating, he is almost a
[00:12:07] - it's almost a given that he'll be re-elected to
[00:12:09] office in a re-election attempt, Edu. Now let's go to the dispute in
[00:12:13] Paraná. You already know that the first governor to be re-elected in the
[00:12:16] country was Eduardo Ridel from Mato Grosso do Sul, and now in
[00:12:20] Paraná, the count is very advanced,
[00:12:22] 82% of the polls already open.
[00:12:25] 50% of the votes for Sérgio Moro and half
[00:12:28] of that, 25%, for Sandro Alex from the
[00:12:32] PSD. So the group of Governor Ratinho Júnior, elected once,
[00:12:36] reelected in Paraná, is
[00:12:38] now enduring a second place to go to
[00:12:42] the second round. If more votes don't come in for
[00:12:45] Moro, turning this game around already in the first round, right? Well, according to
[00:12:49] the research institutes, what counts is the ballot box, right? What counts today is the ballot box, and
[00:12:53] the indication there in Paraná is for an indefinite situation in
[00:12:57] the second round. It's Moro
[00:13:00] disputing in the second round, probably with Sandro
[00:13:03] Alex. Then we'll have an interesting situation, which
[00:13:07] is the search for votes, the search for alliances with those who
[00:13:11] were left behind on the road. In this case, Requião Filho's
[00:13:14] PDT will certainly tip the scales when
[00:13:18] trying to reach an agreement for the second round. It's unlikely that the
[00:13:22] PDT will close with Sérgio Moro. Sérgio Moro
[00:13:25] will have to face the rest of his opponents in the second
[00:13:29] round, even with all the governability, right? Because he needs to have a majority, although the PL
[00:13:33] is expressive in the Legislative Assembly of Paraná, you have difficulties.
[00:13:37] Anyway, you are in a live multiplatform coverage here on Record,
[00:13:40] eh News and on R7 on
[00:13:43] Record Plus. Soon I want to hear Rafael Algarte's voice in our
[00:13:47] analysis room, eh at any moment we'll go back
[00:13:51] into Fantástico with new data for you. Look,
[00:13:54] the counting is very fast, you have 36% of the polls
[00:13:57] counted for president of the republic, but for state government you have
[00:14:01] 33% in São Paulo, in Rio de Janeiro 23%, in
[00:14:05] Minas 34%, 27%, in Bahia
[00:14:08] and you've already seen more than 70% there
[00:14:12] in the federal district, now the numbers from Rio Grande do Sul, let's
[00:14:16] follow together the dispute between Luciano Zuco of the
[00:14:19] PL and Juliana Brizola of the PDT, 65%
[00:14:23] of the votes counted. 58 to 31, Edu, remember I said
[00:14:27] earlier that we could comment on the situation of Gabriel Souza, look,
[00:14:30] Gabriel Souza is the vice president of
[00:14:33] Eduardo Leite, right? There in Rio Grande do Sul, and he had
[00:14:37] a very important role there during
[00:14:40] that crisis caused by the flood
[00:14:44] in 2024 which
[00:14:46] caused serious damage to the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Gabriel
[00:14:50] Souza was the right-hand man of Governor Eduardo Leite in that
[00:14:53] situation, and he is in third place, and he is precisely the one who
[00:14:57] can take the election in Rio Grande do Sul to the
[00:15:00] second round, even though Zuco has favoritism there in the
[00:15:04] state, and Gabriel Souza is a
[00:15:08] politician with an extremely high
[00:15:11] academic intellectual level, a Harvard education.
[00:15:15] That's why his performance was so important for Eduardo
[00:15:19] Leite. Eduardo Leite himself seems to be taking
[00:15:22] a sabbatical, Edu, he
[00:15:26] Paulo, to work in the private sector, because
[00:15:30] Eduardo Leite actually wanted to be a candidate for
[00:15:33] president of the Republic, and he couldn't get
[00:15:37] his party, the PSD, to accept
[00:15:40] him as a candidate, he couldn't make his candidacy viable
[00:15:43] at that point. Caiado leaves
[00:15:46] União Brasil, migrates to the
[00:15:49] PSD to be the PSD candidate.
[00:15:52] However, he manages to get the president of the PSD
[00:15:56] to be the vice president, who is Gilberto Cassabi.
[00:15:59] Therefore, Cassabi's bet was
[00:16:01] on Caiado, and Gabriel and Gabriel Souza, who
[00:16:05] was Eduardo's vice.
[00:16:07] He was left behind, Eduardo Leite was left behind and Gabriel Souza is in
[00:16:11] third. Cristina Lemos, we have live information, a storm
[00:16:15] hit the north of Rio Grande do Sul. At least 30 cities were
[00:16:18] affected and reporter Jairo Bastos brings us the
[00:16:22] live information. Hi Jairo, good
[00:16:23] evening.
[00:16:27] Hello, good evening, good evening everyone. According to the
[00:16:29] state civil defense, incidents were recorded in
[00:16:33] 37 cities in the northern region of the state, in
[00:16:36] 30. Damages were confirmed
[00:16:40] due to the storm, more than 13,000 people were
[00:16:43] affected and 80 are in shelters. The
[00:16:47] most affected municipality was Júlio
[00:16:50] de Castilhos where houses had their roofs torn off by the force of the
[00:16:53] wind and more than 9,000 people were left without
[00:16:57] power. In Estação, the hail damaged
[00:17:00] roofs, in Três Palmeiras, the rain and
[00:17:03] hail caused damages. Tarps and tiles
[00:17:06] were. to the population,
[00:17:09] voting occurred normally since the
[00:17:12] ballot boxes have batteries. We return to the studio. That's
[00:17:15] right, it's a good thing they have batteries, right, Jairo? Thank you very much. In many voting
[00:17:19] locations, in the largest electoral colleges, you also have a generator outside.
[00:17:23] The same reality we had in Rio Grande do Sul, we had in Paraná,
[00:17:26] 14 cities were in the dark. Cris, to vote, I
[00:17:30] went twice. The first time there was a 30-minute line here in São Paulo, here in
[00:17:34] São Paulo, and I went home. I said, looked at the sky, it was going to rain. I
[00:17:38] said, I think I'll have to come at the time of the storm. Much later it wouldn't work because I had
[00:17:41] to be live. Exactly, look at the risk. So I went back there around 2:30 in the afternoon and
[00:17:45] then I stayed for 20 minutes, but in my voting location I heard reports of
[00:17:49] 1 hour queues. After all, there were 25
[00:17:52] keystrokes from people today, an expressive,
[00:17:55] important vote that is advancing. Let's find out, speaking of which, how the situation is in
[00:17:59] Santa Catarina. The numbers for governor are these, Jorginho
[00:18:03] Melo, closer to reelection, closer and
[00:18:06] closer. If we were at 70% of the polls counted,
[00:18:10] mathematically there would be no more comeback, but there are 50% of the polls, there are
[00:18:14] many votes to come in, but those that have come in are giving extreme
[00:18:17] favoritism to Jorginho, Jorginho Melo from the PL. Those who
[00:18:20] follow us here directly from Santa Catarina know that he is the
[00:18:24] favorite governor to be reelected, Gelson Merízio
[00:18:27] from the PSD, PSB, pardon me,
[00:18:29] 16%, João Rodrigues and Marcelo
[00:18:33] Brigadeiro, we have a new partial for president of the republic, we made a new jump
[00:18:36] last time. when we showed you, we were at 31%,
[00:18:40] 10% more, look, 41% of the polls
[00:18:42] counted, more than 50 thousand valid votes, the
[00:18:46] reality is this: Flávio Bolsonaro has
[00:18:49] 24 million votes, 50%, at this moment, followed
[00:18:52] by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who has 41% of the
[00:18:56] votes, almost 20 million votes, and Augusto Curi and Ronaldo
[00:18:59] Caiado follow in the third and fourth count. How are
[00:19:03] the abstentions? 10 million
[00:19:06] Brazilians either voted null or voted blank or did
[00:19:09] not show up to vote, according to the Superior
[00:19:13] Electoral Court. Any words here about this partial? Look, it's interesting
[00:19:17] to see that we are already approaching two
[00:19:20] hours of counting with Flávio Bolsonaro always in the
[00:19:23] lead. This is a surprising scenario because we are already reaching
[00:19:27] half of the polls, right? 41%, 40,
[00:19:30] well, almost half, it still lacks a bit, but it
[00:19:33] is interesting to observe that it has been stabilized
[00:19:37] in this scenario for quite some time and we will still
[00:19:41] advance a lot in this counting and I imagine now it's almost
[00:19:44] 7 in the evening, let's imagine that between 8:30 and 9 the scenario
[00:19:48] will already be clearer, the hammer can be struck, hopefully the
[00:19:51] main votes that came for the presidential dispute so far
[00:19:55] came from those states where the counting is faster,
[00:19:57] Federal District, Tocantins, Rondônia, you
[00:20:01] still have a lot of votes behind from the Brazilian Northeast, which is
[00:20:05] not the political cradle, but
[00:20:07] Lula's great electoral support, no doubt,
[00:20:11] so we'll be back with you with these numbers, but you don't miss
[00:20:15] anything, because there's no commercial break here,
[00:20:19] we pass the ball already 2 hours live, we've been live for 2
[00:20:23] hours, we pass the ball to our multiplatform analysis central with
[00:20:26] Rafael Algarte and Bruno
[00:20:29] Soler, we'll be back in a
[00:20:31] little while.
[00:20:38] Hello, a great evening to you. I, Rafael Algarte, will now
[00:20:42] keep you company in our counting center, this joint
[00:20:45] system of the Record Group, R7, Record News. This
[00:20:49] counting is tight. We're seeing the numbers advancing more and more in
[00:20:52] different states, but analysis is needed to understand the movements that have
[00:20:56] been made so far, and of course I have Bruno Soler
[00:21:00] here with me, he's an analyst from the Realtime Big
[00:21:04] Data Institute. Bruno, a pleasure to have you here with me today. A pleasure, Rafael, always good to be with
[00:21:07] you. Bruno, we looked, we're here with the R7
[00:21:11] portal checking the numbers at this moment, looking at the presidential
[00:21:14] race, obviously there's a very
[00:21:17] significant importance for governors, but I want to start. In this race, looking
[00:21:21] at the figure of Flávio Bolsonaro and also President Lula.
[00:21:24] Cris Lemos and Edu Ribeiro just brought us the news, we're 2 hours into
[00:21:28] the count. Flávio has been leading since the beginning. We're at
[00:21:31] 41% of these votes counted, so we need to
[00:21:35] calmly understand until we reach 100%. But
[00:21:39] it's a movement, especially as we were analyzing here at this
[00:21:43] moment what's happening in the states. Both in Minas, which appears there with
[00:21:47] less than 40% of the polls counted, but Flávio
[00:21:50] is ahead, this is a key state, and the movements
[00:21:54] can already be read here at a certain moment. Look, Rafael, from what
[00:21:57] we see from the numbers, it is very likely
[00:22:01] that Flávio Bolsonaro will finish in the lead. It seems to me that there is no
[00:22:04] chance for Lula to turn the tables on Flávio Bolsonaro, due to
[00:22:08] the dynamic we are seeing in the opening of votes. There is still
[00:22:11] a good portion of the votes from the Brazilian Northeast to
[00:22:15] be counted
[00:22:17] now. This could cause the distance
[00:22:21] to decrease a little
[00:22:25] round, right? The big point is, we are seeing that the sum
[00:22:28] of those small candidates there is very low, it's around seven
[00:22:31] points, more or less, the sum of everyone, right? Three points for Augusto
[00:22:35] Curi, two, 2.5 for Caiado, plus two for what we're seeing here
[00:22:39] behind us, it's almost three points for Augusto Curi,
[00:22:43] 2.38 for Ronaldo Caiado, there's still a little more
[00:22:46] 2% for Renan, eh,
[00:22:50] this sums up to about seven points in total. Flávio
[00:22:54] is opening a nine-point lead over Lula,
[00:22:57] what we are noticing with the opening of the polls in the
[00:23:01] Northeast, is Lula growing a little, right? Flávio reached
[00:23:04] 50.80, now he's at
[00:23:07] 50.20, Lula
[00:23:09] at 41.63, but the fact is that with this
[00:23:11] result, it's very difficult for President Lula
[00:23:15] to win even if he goes to the second
[00:23:19] round. Flávio comes out with an absolutely
[00:23:22] gigantic advantage. We were discussing earlier
[00:23:26] that if Lula finished four points ahead, three points
[00:23:29] ahead, it would already be good for Flávio Bolsonaro. With Flávio
[00:23:33] in the lead, it seems that the election is already almost
[00:23:36] being defined with Flávio as President of the Republic, and this is an important point, Bruno,
[00:23:40] for us to bring here in our analysis, because when we look at this
[00:23:43] first round, at the possibility then of a second, that candidate
[00:23:47] at least the two here, they need
[00:23:51] to understand where the other votes will come from. Next, we
[00:23:55] are seeing Augusto Curi with 2.96% and
[00:23:58] Ronaldo Caiado with 2.38%.
[00:24:01] And the profile that we analyzed throughout this electoral
[00:24:04] race, the PT's own campaign at
[00:24:08] various times tried to analyze, this week it was said that Lula's campaign
[00:24:11] was already trying to signal to Augusto Curi to see if
[00:24:15] it was possible to pull him at that moment in a possible second round.
[00:24:19] I wanted to understand, and also bring you into this analysis for us to verify
[00:24:22] if President Lula, looking at a second
[00:24:25] round, making an analysis based on the numbers we have here, if
[00:24:29] from there he can get enough votes to defeat
[00:24:33] Flávio Bolsonaro, because until then it seems like a task that will be almost Herculean.
[00:24:36] Look, Rafael, it seems impossible. Of
[00:24:40] course, in an election anything can happen, you can have changes,
[00:24:43] something can happen in the middle of the road and so on, but
[00:24:47] ah, the prediction, if we look at what the data has presented
[00:24:51] to us, there is a much stronger tendency for Flávio
[00:24:54] Bolsonaro, including to increase the distance, because the votes of
[00:24:58] Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos have a greater tendency
[00:25:01] to go to Flávio Bolsonaro. Augusto Curi's votes can
[00:25:05] even be divided, let's say, or even a little more for Lula,
[00:25:08] and Zema's didn't appear in the ballot box, right? Romeo
[00:25:12] Zema's vote is an absolute fiasco, right, Rafael?
[00:25:16] We expected Zema with 1%, 2%, but he is
[00:25:18] there, uh, with zero point
[00:25:22] something, right? So uh,
[00:25:24] this, that is, his vote will also matter little
[00:25:28] in this second round process. What we are seeing is
[00:25:32] ah, Flávio Bolsonaro opening a
[00:25:35] lead that seems irreversible, exactly.
[00:25:38] And we are now arriving, we started here at 41% of the precincts counted,
[00:25:42] it will reach 50 soon, we are talking about 47.26% of the
[00:25:46] precincts counted, a total of valid votes of 57,000
[00:25:50] 7 million 287 when we verify this
[00:25:54] race so far, and this is an important point. Back
[00:25:57] in August we had candidates, this third
[00:26:01] way that since Jair Bolsonaro's election,
[00:26:04] at some point there was talk of an attempt to somehow
[00:26:08] reduce this polarization, which we saw did not happen in 2026,
[00:26:12] polarization remains existing and still very latent, and there is a
[00:26:15] collapse of these other candidates. When we look at Zema, Caiado,
[00:26:19] Augusto Curi, in
[00:26:22] eight points, and now what we have here at this moment is
[00:26:26] two, Bruno, so it is very significant, it seems that
[00:26:30] a third way flopped. Exactly. We
[00:26:33] see the film of the election is very interesting, right,
[00:26:36] because at the beginning of the year when Flávio ran as a candidate and people
[00:26:40] started to know Flávio Bolsonaro and he presented himself as
[00:26:43] that Bolsonaro, he even used to say I am the balanced Bolsonaro,
[00:26:47] right, he brought that into the campaign, right, he did the whole campaign right at the beginning of the campaign
[00:26:51] he presented himself like that to the electorate and he gained
[00:26:55] popularity, he got very close to President Lula right at the beginning
[00:26:58] of the year at a time when the government's approval rating was also very...
[00:27:02] very bad, right, people were very critical of
[00:27:06] that beginning, that they had to pay a lot of taxes, the living
[00:27:09] conditions were bad for the population, at that moment
[00:27:12] Flávio got very close. Then there was the
[00:27:15] episode of the dark horse, when the
[00:27:19] Dark Horse episode happens, Flávio starts to
[00:27:21] lose his votability.
[00:27:25] These votes fall to these third-way candidates, the
[00:27:28] voter tested Ronaldo Caiado, at first it seemed like the guy...
[00:27:32] could grow, he's in a big party, Gilberto Cassab, a great
[00:27:36] strategist behind the campaign, a pro-Caiado
[00:27:39] movement emerges that doesn't and that doesn't take
[00:27:43] off, doesn't gain momentum. Then the voter starts to see Romeo Zema and
[00:27:47] Zema with that untouchables thing, it started to seem
[00:27:50] that he could also gain momentum, he didn't gain momentum. When he presented
[00:27:54] himself to the people, Zema was very very fragile, his positions,
[00:27:58] right, a governor of Minas who spoke of fiscal adjustment, then you look at the situation of...
[00:28:02] Minas was not good, so that starts to lose a little bit of
[00:28:06] the idea of going for him. Then that Renan Santos
[00:28:10] movement emerges, Renan reaches 8
[00:28:13] 9% in some polls of voting intention, but when Romeo,
[00:28:17] when Renan Santos goes to the general public, when he leaves
[00:28:20] the internet and goes to present himself to the Brazilian voter, then it's a
[00:28:24] disaster, because he goes to an interview
[00:28:28] very aggressive, talks about atomic bombs,
[00:28:31] talks about... blood in the favelas, this ends up scaring
[00:28:35] the electorate, until the voter settles into a psychical
[00:28:38] moment for the voter to go for Augusto Curi, right, the Augusto
[00:28:42] Curi movement, after that debate on Band, he starts to appear
[00:28:46] as a more neutral guy, against polarization and all
[00:28:49] that, but the voter also didn't feel confident in
[00:28:53] Augusto Curi, and we have a moment then, Rafael, which is the moment
[00:28:57] of the STF crisis, when the STF
[00:29:00] crisis hits, the Brazilian who was already... tired of this process, an
[00:29:03] extremely negative election, little discussion,
[00:29:07] then the person who is already dissatisfied with the government,
[00:29:10] sees all that was happening in the supreme court, what did
[00:29:14] we see happen? This voter starts to return to Flávio
[00:29:18] Bolsonaro, even without having great passion for Flávio Bolsonaro, but
[00:29:21] says: to defeat the status quo the change is
[00:29:25] Flávio Bolsonaro, then he returns to that initial level
[00:29:29] of the of the
[00:29:33] first measurements, I'll get to that topic, I just want to look at this
[00:29:36] here, because this is very good for us to be able to conclude this thread, because I want
[00:29:40] to bring up the government of São Paulo at this moment, which has
[00:29:43] 47.46% of the precincts counted, right, a total of 12
[00:29:47] million votes, then we have Tarcísio from the Republicans, the current
[00:29:50] governor there being re-elected, already winning in the first round, which was
[00:29:53] debated a lot even before we got close to this Sunday. He has
[00:29:57] 64.31% of the votes against Haddad's
[00:30:01] 34. 80% from the PT. We
[00:30:04] have Vivian Mendes, who comes next with
[00:30:07] 0.33%, and Vera Lúcia from PSTU with
[00:30:10] 0.31% of the votes. I want to look at this
[00:30:14] point, before we return to the Supreme Court, Bruno, because
[00:30:17] here we cannot say it's a surprise, because when we look at
[00:30:21] Haddad, he already came to this dispute, he doesn't say this
[00:30:24] publicly, but we know that it was to create a strong platform for President
[00:30:28] Lula here in the state of São Paulo. The attempts, he participates
[00:30:32] in the debate, he was here at Record, participated in the questioning,
[00:30:36] was on the general balance, then also participated in another
[00:30:39] questioning with Gotino here from the group and we
[00:30:43] brought here how this movement was carried out by
[00:30:46] him so that especially the voter from
[00:30:49] the interior of the state, Fernando Haddad is a known figure,
[00:30:53] but to deliver and convince this voter is a different
[00:30:57] process, right, Bruno, then we have Tarcísio.