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20261012 163000 UTC
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[00:00:30] increases chicken meat production by 9%. Will there be competition with
[00:00:33] Brazil, huh? President Trump announces a ceasefire between Russia and
[00:00:37] Ukraine. Iguaçu Falls walkway is closed to
[00:00:49] buyers, expanded its own production by
[00:00:52] 9%. This is only in the first half of this year,
[00:00:56] huh? In addition, the country also expanded its...
[00:01:00] rotations: even with the internal increase in protein
[00:01:03] production, Brazil exported to the Asian nation between January and September
[00:01:07] of this year, more than 420,000 tons
[00:01:10] of the product. Meanwhile, in the first 5 months of
[00:01:13] 2025, China exported more than 546 thousand
[00:01:17] tons of chicken meat. But is this already a reason
[00:01:21] for concern for producers here in Brazil,
[00:01:25] huh? Who will analyze the risks of competition between
[00:01:29] are also seeing a growth in the the markets is the... economist Ricardo Buso. Hi Ricardo, good afternoon to
[00:01:32] you, always welcome to Conexão, good
[00:01:35] afternoon Kelly, good afternoon everyone, always a pleasure to be here. Well, let's point out
[00:01:39] for those who follow Conexão, the importance of Brazil when it comes to
[00:01:42] chicken meat production and export. Well, Brazil is the largest producer and largest
[00:01:46] exporter of chicken meat in the world.
[00:01:50] It is a powerhouse in this regard. When we talk
[00:01:53] about China, it's a very curious relationship, because it's
[00:01:57] our main client and... it has chances of
[00:02:01] becoming a competitor, why is that? As you said, production is
[00:02:05] growing a lot, it's growing above consumption,
[00:02:08] so what happens? There's more left to export, but then
[00:02:12] a very interesting issue comes up, which is
[00:02:15] consumption habits. Here, our preference, right, for
[00:02:19] breast, thigh and drumstick, in China the preference is
[00:02:23] for feet and wings, so they still have a very
[00:02:27] disposition, an excellent ally in great need to import feet and wings.
[00:02:30] mainly, and these cuts that we prefer are left over,
[00:02:33] so this dilemma comes in, right, and
[00:02:36] it continues to be our biggest client, right,
[00:02:39] by far, I think only in September, eh, it didn't lead
[00:02:43] our foreign sales, our sales destination,
[00:02:46] and it's growing, we know, right,
[00:02:49] 9% eh in 6 months for
[00:02:53] agriculture, for agribusiness, it's a huge
[00:02:56] leap, and creating production scale, no one
[00:02:59] doubts China, they are very good at it, exactly, and they have
[00:03:03] that medium-term plan, let's even consider medium-term
[00:03:06] to really guarantee food security for the country, so they
[00:03:09] have eh adopted several
[00:03:13] strategies and now chicken meat is also on the radar, isn't it?
[00:03:16] Well, eh, these strategies
[00:03:20] they come both through production and through
[00:03:24] association with countries, right, with, let's say,
[00:03:27] benefits that can keep that country close
[00:03:30] for geopolitical effect, but also for food security, which
[00:03:34] is fundamental for a country that has the second largest population
[00:03:38] in the world, it was once the first, and to have a very expressive
[00:03:42] growth rate, to cope with that is not simple, right, it needs to guarantee itself
[00:03:45] and it does its part like no one else, now we need
[00:03:49] to keep an eye on this Chinese movement because it's like this, we
[00:03:53] are looking at China, our main buyer
[00:03:56] that even has different cuts from ours as preferred. So far so
[00:04:00] good, but Ricardo, we know the importance, for
[00:04:04] example, of the Middle East market for
[00:04:07] Brazilian chicken meat, right, I was even there in the
[00:04:10] region, visiting some factories and I saw
[00:04:14] how Brazilian protein is already so
[00:04:17] adapted there, in fact, for the consumer that
[00:04:21] many consumers in the regions, for example, United Arab
[00:04:25] Emirates, don't even imagine that the meat is not from there,
[00:04:28] because Brazilian industries... they did research even to
[00:04:32] adapt to the seasoning of the meat, right, they even went to the
[00:04:35] houses of the house zones, they went there to find out what kind of seasoning each
[00:04:39] one uses to adapt the product to the best flavor there
[00:04:42] in the region, right, so how does it fit in this scenario, right, because
[00:04:46] you just said, China has scale and if China
[00:04:49] also aims for the Middle
[00:04:51] East? Well, eh, China
[00:04:55] today exports chicken meat almost
[00:04:58] 10 times less than Brazil, Brazil has almost 10
[00:05:02] times more exports, so it's
[00:05:05] something that for agribusiness makes a lot of difference to have
[00:05:08] scale and achieve better production costs, so
[00:05:12] at this point we are still far, China is
[00:05:15] far from reaching us, right, as you well said, for the Middle
[00:05:19] East we already have the standardization they
[00:05:21] desire, China has experience in exporting
[00:05:25] processed chicken and now enters with more force
[00:05:29] in this in natura market, so eh given
[00:05:32] that it's very difficult for us to lose this position
[00:05:36] in the medium term, or for China to threaten us because
[00:05:39] of costs, now what needs to remain... intent is
[00:05:43] China's logistics to the Middle East and that's a favorable
[00:05:46] point for them, so what they lose in scale
[00:05:50] and in production cost, which we know how to do much
[00:05:53] better, they have some chance to compensate and get better
[00:05:57] over time in logistics
[00:06:01] and geography, shorter distances to the Middle East, which
[00:06:05] is a big client of ours and a global consumer. Well, right, we're
[00:06:08] following all the international movement,
[00:06:11] right, no one is isolated, we keep hitting on this point here, that's
[00:06:15] why it's important to have all this movement on the radar, isn't it?
[00:06:19] Well, eh, what happens
[00:06:22] today in super interconnected markets, right,
[00:06:26] a cold in one is a sneeze in another, right, everything is done in a chain
[00:06:29] eh, and of course, we are seeing what happens, for
[00:06:33] example, when Trump tries to mess with these supply chains,
[00:06:36] right, eh, losing a client in this
[00:06:39] market is not simply thinking about... directing, look,
[00:06:43] this one buys less, I'll have to sell more to the other, it's the question
[00:06:47] of the mode of production, of standardization, you said it well about the Middle East,
[00:06:51] we already have a whole line of production and a production
[00:06:54] chain adapted to this market, so changing that is not
[00:06:58] easy, that's why you have to be attentive because eh any
[00:07:01] geopolitical change
[00:07:04] or even changes in habits or customs in a
[00:07:07] country interferes with the global economy so quickly and
[00:07:11] increasingly with the speed of information, exactly, right,
[00:07:14] let's just remember here, reinforcing with Brazilian companies that have
[00:07:17] already made investments also eh
[00:07:21] in the Middle East as we mentioned, so it's a whole
[00:07:24] chain that has to really keep the radar on.
[00:07:28] There's another topic here, Ricardo, and it's
[00:07:31] important too, I'd like your analysis, because the International
[00:07:35] Monetary Fund made an alert about the rise in food
[00:07:38] and energy prices that could keep global
[00:07:42] inflation expectations high. According to an
[00:07:45] IMF survey, in the last 5 years, tension
[00:07:49] and conflicts between nations aggravated the increase in
[00:07:53] prices of essential products and compromised the
[00:07:56] cost of living, especially for the poorest families. The poorest
[00:08:00] always suffer more, unfortunately. The study, which also
[00:08:03] presented a new economic model to analyze the impact of inflation on the poorest
[00:08:07] segment of the population, estimates that between
[00:08:10] 2021 and 2024,
[00:08:13] more than 23 million people fell below
[00:08:16] the extreme poverty line.
[00:08:20] For the IMF, global tensions can impact not only in the
[00:08:24] short and medium term global inflation, but also the cost of
[00:08:27] living on average 3 years after crises and
[00:08:31] conflicts, leading central banks to raise interest rates. How
[00:08:35] do you see this whole scenario, huh? It's a regrettable
[00:08:38] warning, because it affects exactly those who should be
[00:08:42] most protected, the poorest segment of the
[00:08:45] population, and it's very focused on conflicts, right,
[00:08:49] for example, eh, Russia and Ukraine that has been going on for a long
[00:08:52] time, and we know the importance of
[00:08:56] pesticides, of fertilizers that come from that
[00:08:59] region of the world, eh, and that makes things more expensive, without them we don't have
[00:09:02] scale of production, without scale it gets too expensive,
[00:09:06] right, the costs, this is not just for Brazil, this is for the whole world, the
[00:09:10] other conflict is in the Middle East that affects
[00:09:13] oil, we know that eh oil
[00:09:16] is for the movement of agricultural machinery, but
[00:09:19] also as food are low-value
[00:09:23] commodities, the fuel itself in transport
[00:09:26] until it reaches the point of sale in retail, it is a very
[00:09:30] strong component because they are low-value products, so it
[00:09:34] impacts too much and who suffers is who earns less,
[00:09:37] because a good part or most of the consumption of these
[00:09:40] more vulnerable families is in subsistence, that's what
[00:09:44] they use their household budget for, and then the IMF's
[00:09:48] statement is focused on these issues of global
[00:09:51] tensions, but we must not forget the risks to
[00:09:55] food and energy that global warming means,
[00:09:58] like this El Niño that has projections to
[00:10:01] arrive at the end of the year which can also worsen the situation, so it's not
[00:10:05] just the global conflict, or international
[00:10:08] conflict, exactly. Let's keep an eye on all of this.
[00:10:11] Well, there's another piece of data
[00:10:15] coming in, Brazilian retail has high
[00:10:17] expectations for Children's Day, today, right, R$ 9
[00:10:21] billion is the revenue that entrepreneurs expect to collect with the date.
[00:10:25] celebrated, including today, you see, this
[00:10:28] value is also included, this would be the largest sales volume for the
[00:10:32] sector in 12 years, this is because
[00:10:34] toys are no longer thought only for children, there is a
[00:10:38] large portion of adults with nostalgia in their hearts, these are
[00:10:42] people who look for products like cards, collectible dolls,
[00:10:45] toy cars and video games, toys aimed at teenagers and adults
[00:10:49] had an increase, do you know how much, 50% in
[00:10:53] revenue, according to data from
[00:11:03] habits are changing, we notice that
[00:11:06] today adults get married later, have
[00:11:09] children later, so part of the budget ends up
[00:11:13] having space eh for these issues, right, the
[00:11:16] cosplays that gain so much space, right,
[00:11:19] we see a significant change in consumption habits,
[00:11:22] the confederation... National Confederation of Commerce estimates that
[00:11:26] retail will move 9.3 billion reais, the
[00:11:29] credit card association is at 20 billion eh
[00:11:33] and talking about a growth of
[00:11:36] 7.5%. This also reflects here in Brazil
[00:11:40] the labor market that now tends to
[00:11:43] cool down because of these interest rates, but it still comes
[00:11:46] heated, unemployment at historical lows, so this
[00:11:50] facilitates, so much so that we
[00:11:54] intention of spending on gifts which is R$
[00:11:57] 232 in the southeast, 227 in the
[00:12:00] south, following this average for the rest of Brazil, which is quite
[00:12:04] significant, it means eh
[00:12:07] market, a population with more willingness to
[00:12:10] shop, which has been changing eh at a
[00:12:13] very
[00:12:39] that's important, right, within the possibilities,
[00:12:42] it's also part of the child understanding what's possible and what's not,
[00:12:46] that makes them a more conscious adult, avoids
[00:12:49] bigger problems later on, but it's interesting
[00:12:52] to note that the revenue from... toy sales has a growth forecast
[00:12:56] of 17% for children's toys for the
[00:12:59] children themselves and 50%,
[00:13:03] as you said, for young people and for adults and
[00:13:06] young people, right, so it's a very new
[00:13:09] scenario, this opens up other fields, opens up other
[00:13:13] market fronts that can still
[00:13:29] kitchen. Specialists explain that children who prepare meals with their
[00:13:33] parents are more likely to create healthy eating habits
[00:13:37] that can last a lifetime. Getting
[00:13:41] hands-on, a lot of concentration. At 8
[00:13:44] years old, Stephanie already ventures into recipes, the kitchen is her
[00:13:48] favorite place. For her mother, cooking together became an
[00:13:51] opportunity to stimulate the child's development. They say...
[00:13:55] it also involves the motor coordination,
[00:13:57] her sociability that she already wants to take, right, 'I'll take it
[00:14:01] to a friend'. Yuri also participates in preparing the family's
[00:14:05] meals. 'I help my mom when I'm in the kitchen,
[00:14:09] scrambled eggs, grilled cheese, we also help make
[00:14:12] barbecue'. This learning is important given a scenario
[00:14:16] that worries specialists. Data
[00:14:19] from the United Nations Children's Fund shows that
[00:14:22] overweight children and adolescents doubled in just over
[00:14:26] two decades. The consumption of ultra-processed foods
[00:14:30] is among the factors that require attention. Offering
[00:14:33] healthy foods is the healthiest way to make
[00:14:37] these children grow and develop in the best
[00:14:41] possible way. And it's not just about learning to cook. When
[00:14:44] children participate in the preparation of
[00:14:47] meals, they also discover new
[00:14:50] flavors, textures and foods. An experience
[00:14:54] that can help create healthier habits
[00:14:56] early on. What we want is to prepare our children for the world,
[00:15:00] right? That they learn some things
[00:15:04] that are really
[00:15:06] useful from an early age.
[00:15:08] The intense heat increased the demand for energy in Manaus, consumption
[00:15:12] grew 14% compared to the September 2025
[00:15:16] record. It's the fifth consumption record registered in the electrical
[00:15:19] system that serves the Amazonian capital and municipalities in the metropolitan
[00:15:23] region. This is a... period of high temperatures,
[00:15:26] frequent episodes of smoke, so Brazilian Air
[00:15:29] Force aircraft arrived in Manaus to reinforce the fight
[00:15:33] against forest fires that have already lasted 5 days, more than
[00:15:36] 12,000 liters of water are expected to be dropped
[00:15:40] Monday. Yesterday, the air quality in the capital of Amazonas was considered
[00:15:44] terrible. The city hall suspended outdoor events because
[00:15:47] of the fires.
[00:15:51] Once again, the Iguaçu Falls walkway is closed due to high water flow.
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[00:20:46] The rain affecting the entire state of Rio Grande do Sul is increasing
[00:20:50] river levels. The worst situation is in cities that
[00:20:53] border Argentina, the Uruguay River is above flood
[00:20:57] level, the rain that hasn't stopped since last Monday
[00:21:01] caused damage in 18 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, a survey
[00:21:05] by civil defense indicates more than 11,000 people affected, in
[00:21:08] Itaqui, 700 km from Porto Alegre, water invaded the
[00:21:12] streets, more than 70 people are displaced, in
[00:21:16] Porto Alegre, in the first 10 days of the month it has already rained more than
[00:21:20] half of what was expected for October, even so, the level of Guaíba
[00:21:23] is not yet a concern. In the other rivers, the trend is
[00:21:27] stabilization in the coming
[00:21:29] hours. The water flow of the Iguaçu Falls
[00:21:33] got so high that the walkway had to be closed
[00:21:36] again. The Iguaçu River reached to discharge about
[00:21:40] 8,800 thousand liters of water per
[00:21:43] second. It's almost six times the normal volume. The
[00:21:46] increase is due to the heavy rains that hit Paraná in recent days
[00:21:50] and, according to the park administration, visitation
[00:21:54] continues normally. Look at the force of the water,
[00:21:57] huh? The storm that hit the interior of São Paulo
[00:22:00] caused flooding, invaded properties and knocked down
[00:22:03] trees. In Campinas, the rain accumulated almost 60
[00:22:07] mm and civil defense registered occurrences in
[00:22:11] different parts of the city. A car was hit by a
[00:22:14] tree, but there are no reports of injuries. In Paulínia there were also
[00:22:18] floods in streets
[00:22:20] and a commercial establishment also got flooded, the city hall
[00:22:24] teams monitor the affected areas and make preventive
[00:22:27] blockades in some
[00:22:29] roads.
[00:22:31] And the walkway of the Iguaçu National Park, which we just showed, should remain
[00:22:35] closed, as the forecast for rain is continuous for
[00:22:39] today, as for the north, northeast, the dry and hot climate should prevail, let's
[00:22:43] see.
[00:22:50] will be an alert for intense rain this
[00:22:53] Monday, the biggest highlights are Santa
[00:22:56] Catarina and Paraná. The humidity coming from Paraguay
[00:23:00] favors thunderstorms throughout the day, while Rio
[00:23:03] Grande do Sul has more isolated showers. Going
[00:23:07] to the Southeast, the weather will be moderately
[00:23:10] unstable in São Paulo, it may rain in the capital
[00:23:14] of São Paulo. Rio de Janeiro and the southern part of Minas Gerais also
[00:23:17] expect rain. In the Central-West,
[00:23:21] highlights are Mato Grosso do Sul and western Mato
[00:23:24] Grosso. In the Northeast, the holiday will be sunny
[00:23:27] with high temperatures in most of the region and
[00:23:31] northern part of the country, the beginning of the week is with rain in
[00:23:35] Amazonas and Rondônia, also highlighted is
[00:23:38] Tocantins. This Monday, maximum of
[00:23:41] 17 degrees in Porto Alegre and 26 in São
[00:23:44] Paulo, while Palmas and Cuiabá have heat of up to
[00:23:48] 37°.
[00:23:52] Let's continue now our tour around Brazil to know what to expect from the weather
[00:23:55] today and tomorrow, who will give us all the details is
[00:23:59] meteorology specialist and Climatempo spokesperson, Maria Clara Sasac. Maria
[00:24:03] Clara, good afternoon to you, always
[00:24:20] rain in the south of the country, isn't it?
[00:24:22] Exactly, this rain will continue, Kelly, throughout this whole week
[00:24:26] we have conditions for instabilities in the south, we saw that the river levels
[00:24:30] are quite high since the Rio Grande do Sul, passing through Santa Catarina and
[00:24:34] even the state of Paraná, the tendency is that areas of
[00:24:37] instability will still act in the coming days between Paraguay
[00:24:41] and Argentina and end up bringing conditions for heavy
[00:24:44] clouds west of the state of Paraná also west of
[00:24:48] Santa Catarina, so the FOS region. Iguaçu, Cascavel region, even
[00:24:51] areas of the northwest of the state, Loanda region, in Paraná,
[00:24:55] Maringá, Londrina, has potential for storms throughout
[00:24:59] this week, heavy rain with gusts of
[00:25:02] wind that can reach up to 70, 80
[00:25:05] km/h and the potential for hail is not ruled out either, now speaking of the
[00:25:08] region and speaking of Rio
[00:25:12] Grande do Sul, in fact now, Kelly, we had a decrease in instabilities
[00:25:15] there, so for now, at the beginning of
[00:25:19] the week, we should not have significant rains, which
[00:25:22] favors the decrease in the level of the rivers that overflowed in
[00:25:26] several points of the state, now the level should drop because the rain is concentrated
[00:25:30] mainly in the states of Santa Catarina, Paraná,
[00:25:33] some areas also of Mato Grosso do Sul and border areas between
[00:25:37] Paraná and São Paulo, Kevin. Look Clara, just to make
[00:25:40] it clear to everyone, this heavy rain in the south is
[00:25:44] normal for this time or is it already an effect
[00:25:47] of El Niño?
[00:25:49] It is normal. that it rains with higher accumulated volumes at this
[00:25:53] time of year in the states of the southern region of Brazil, but we are
[00:25:56] with the effect of El Niño, which is of strong, of
[00:26:00] very strong intensity, it is the largest scale of El Niño that we
[00:26:03] have reached so far and we have a favorable condition
[00:26:07] for these rains in the southern region of Brazil, when we have
[00:26:10] El Niño acting normally, the rains increase in the south and decrease
[00:26:14] between the north and northeast, an El Niño of strong intensity or of
[00:26:18] very strong intensity, as is the case of what we have now,
[00:26:21] these rains end up being potentiated, which is why the
[00:26:25] volumes are high, much higher than normal, much more
[00:26:29] higher than the average and several regions have already had rains... approaching
[00:26:32] the climatological average for this month, some have already even
[00:26:36] exceeded and it is precisely the effect of the El Niño phenomenon, an increase in
[00:26:40] rains in the southern region of Brazil and severe drought between
[00:26:43] the states of the north and northeast, including it is something that has
[00:26:47] potentiated the effect of the fires in the northern region of
[00:26:51] Brazil, we saw news in the last few days of several
[00:26:54] areas suffering from fires in the northern region, it is precisely because of this
[00:26:58] effect of little rain or no rain in the northern states
[00:27:02] of... this part of the country, that's right, I mentioned earlier that the FAB is sending
[00:27:05] today, right, sent planes today to reinforce the fight against the
[00:27:09] flames, so it's a very complicated situation, because when we talk about
[00:27:12] air quality, it impacts the health of the population,
[00:27:15] right, certainly, not only the
[00:27:19] issue of air quality, right Kelly, but these
[00:27:22] large-scale fires are very difficult to control, for
[00:27:26] this week we have a forecast of rains that should advance to
[00:27:29] areas of the north and northeast, hitting some... there in the interior of the
[00:27:33] northeast, even the region of Manaus that has suffered from dry
[00:27:37] weather, but these are very irregular and very localized rains,
[00:27:41] they do not help in a generalized way to contain
[00:27:44] these large-scale fires, so
[00:27:48] monitoring is necessary, even if we have this rain forecast for the
[00:27:52] coming days, the temperatures will remain
[00:27:54] high, of course they don't reach 40 degrees because the humidity increases,
[00:27:58] but the maximum forecast for this week is around 36,
[00:28:02] 30... 7 degrees, it's a very high temperature for
[00:28:05] these areas of the northern region, even with a rain forecast, so there's a
[00:28:09] rain forecast, but it doesn't help, it doesn't cool down the
[00:28:12] situation much regarding the control of fires, the water deficit of the
[00:28:16] soil, the soil is very dry and this condition of rains does not
[00:28:30] 26 degrees of temperature and...
[00:28:32] it's from homes in real, look, there are people on the beach, of course,
[00:28:35] enjoying it because it's hot, despite the weather
[00:28:39] being a little cloudy, right, will it rain in Rio de Janeiro or
[00:28:43] not? We can have rains yes,
[00:28:46] Kelly, between this afternoon and tomorrow morning we still
[00:28:50] have a lot of instability, because we had a cold front in the southeast of
[00:28:53] Brazil, it even caused storms during the weekend during
[00:28:57] Sunday afternoon in the state of São Paulo and now it has advanced
[00:29:00] towards Rio de Janeiro, it is more over the ocean than on the continent, but it ends up
[00:29:04] leaving a lot of cloudiness there along the
[00:29:07] coast of Rio de Janeiro, in the region, uh, the southern half
[00:29:10] of the state, São Paulo also with a lot of cloudiness now and
[00:29:14] scattered showers are not ruled out during the next few hours, so much
[00:29:17] attention to those who are going home, who are going to hit the road now
[00:29:21] in the next few hours, because there is potential for rains that make the roads
[00:29:25] slippery and those who go to the mountain areas also have potential
[00:29:29] for the formation of some mist, some fog that makes...
[00:29:32] visibility impaired, it is a
[00:29:36] moment when the roads become very busy in the
[00:29:39] southeast of Brazil precisely because of this return from the holiday, so it is a
[00:29:43] condition that deserves a lot of attention, these
[00:29:46] adverse weather conditions on the roads, the rain will not be
[00:29:50] voluminous, there is no risk of storms as happened yesterday, but there is this
[00:29:54] alert for slippery roads
[00:30:10] Paulistanos?
[00:30:13] The same condition, we still have many clouds on the coast, Paulista capital,
[00:30:16] metropolitan region, Ribeira Valley and Paraíba Valley, and for the
[00:30:20] next few hours the same scenario, we may have rain during the
[00:30:23] night and also during the early morning, in the mountain stretches
[00:30:27] there is potential for the formation of mist and fog, so whoever is
[00:30:30] going home now in the next few hours, pay close attention, be very careful with the
[00:30:34] roads, be very careful with these mountain