RUSSIA24 — Infografika
20260915 045100 UTC
111 transcript segments
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[00:01:30] For half a century, the global oil market was orchestrated by OPEC. One decision
[00:01:34] on quotas and quotes sharply changed trajectory. Today the cartel
[00:01:38] gathers, announces an increase in production, and the market practically does
[00:01:41] not react. Who took over control will be shown by
[00:01:44] the graphs.
[00:01:47] Let's start with the main thing. Here is the volume of production of OPEC Plus countries. The alliance
[00:01:50] has been active since the end of 2016.
[00:01:53] At its peak, the countries that were part of it produced almost 40
[00:01:57] million barrels per day. Now look to the right. In
[00:02:00] February, the members of the organization pumped out every second barrel in
[00:02:04] the world, meaning their share was 48%, in
[00:02:07] July it was 40. They lost eight points in
[00:02:10] six months, and the smaller the share, the weaker the influence on
[00:02:13] the market. In May, the United Arab Emirates left OPEC,
[00:02:17] having been in the organization for almost 60 years.
[00:02:20] The reason is that very quota. Abu Dhabi invested more than
[00:02:24] 140 billion dollars in production, bringing capacity to almost 5
[00:02:28] million barrels per day. Three or four were allowed.
[00:02:32] Iraq, the second largest producer in the association, one of the five
[00:02:35] founders, also considered leaving in the summer. As a result,
[00:02:38] the prime minister stated: we will not leave OPEC, but we will demand
[00:02:41] a fair quota. The logic is exactly the same. Arguing about
[00:02:45] quotas has become almost meaningless. The Strait of Hormuz
[00:02:48] is closed, the production of Iraq itself collapsed from
[00:02:50] 4.2 million barrels in February to 1.5
[00:02:54] million in May, sea exports 8% of
[00:02:57] last year's level. Smart cartel. Six times announced
[00:03:01] an increase in production, all these decisions had little effect on
[00:03:04] prices. Oil that cannot be delivered to consumers does not affect
[00:03:08] pricing. The Hormuz crisis only exacerbated now
[00:03:11] OPEC's problems, simply because OPEC started
[00:03:15] producing even less, simply because both Saudi Arabia and
[00:03:18] Iraq, uh, the United Arab Emirates, could not
[00:03:21] supply the entire volume of extracted oil to the market. And the opening of
[00:03:25] Hormuz will only exacerbate the problem simply because
[00:03:28] the authorities of Iraq and Saudi Arabia will most likely
[00:03:32] declare that for many months, already more than
[00:03:34] half a year, we have been producing less oil than we could,
[00:03:38] than the quotas allow us, and we want to compensate these
[00:03:42] volumes, respectively, they will try to flood the world
[00:03:45] market with super-volumes of oil that they will
[00:03:48] produce, well, accordingly, in order to compensate for these
[00:03:52] downtimes.
[00:03:54] The conductor's place was taken by the one who buys oil. Since the beginning of
[00:03:58] the conflict, China bought four
[00:04:00] barrels less than the year before. This is not economy, this is
[00:04:04] management. Beijing has about 1.5 billion barrels in storage.
[00:04:07] This is the largest reserve in the world. The price is too high,
[00:04:11] China takes from its reserves, the largest buyer leaves the market.
[00:04:15] The price dropped too low. The Middle Kingdom returns
[00:04:18] and buys in advance. The reduction of imports by China after
[00:04:22] the start of the US war with Iran in the Middle East prevented
[00:04:25] quotes from going into space. If China
[00:04:28] continued to buy at the same volumes, oil would cost a third
[00:04:32] more. China looked at its behavior model for
[00:04:35] forming reserves from the International Energy
[00:04:38] Agency, which was created in the seventies by the US and
[00:04:41] European countries. It was created precisely to solve
[00:04:45] the problems of oil supplies from the Middle East, and
[00:04:49] the IEA countries had to create their strategic reserves for 90 days
[00:04:52] of imports. And accordingly, what was done,
[00:04:56] and China simply scaled up
[00:04:58] the IEA experience and created a reserve much larger, covering
[00:05:02] imports for a much longer
[00:05:04] period. Washington also plays its part,
[00:05:08] the White House announced a deal with
[00:05:10] Venezuela.
[00:05:21] 35% in the American operating company goes to the
[00:05:25] Pentagon, the American government secures the
[00:05:28] right to buy back 20% of production at
[00:05:31] cost. In Caracas, after this, they are seriously discussing
[00:05:35] leaving OPEC. Venezuela is one of the cartel's founders. In
[00:05:39] one year, the organization risks losing its second major member.
[00:05:43] Venezuela today possesses 17% of the world's
[00:05:47] oil reserves, however, production volumes are only slightly more than
[00:05:50] 1% of global production, this is a problem of the last 25
[00:05:54] years, but a possibility for tomorrow.
[00:05:56] дня.
[00:05:58] So, do we bury OPEC or not? Not yet. The organization
[00:06:02] still has leverage, these are underground reserves and spare
[00:06:06] production capacity. Hormuz will open and its barrels will return to
[00:06:09] the market, but the cartel's role is changing from a personal
[00:06:12] conductor who set the price, OPEC is becoming one of the
[00:06:16] participants in the oil orchestra, and together they write the score of oil
[00:06:20] quotes, and it doesn't always turn out in unison.
[00:10:00] The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trapped in the Volchansk cauldron in Kharkov.