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20261004 120000 UTC
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[00:00:00] a great university, why are people unhappy everywhere?
[00:00:03] Polls show that there is a wave of dissatisfaction
[00:00:07] and an increase in stress, sadness and frustration that is
[00:00:10] sweeping the world. In "How to Get Out of the Hole," journalist
[00:00:14] Andrés Oppenheimer shares new strategies to
[00:00:17] combat unhappiness. It is now available in bookstores and
[00:00:21] online
[00:00:22] stores.
[00:00:31] We are CNN, the world leader in news.
[00:00:49] Hello, how are you? I am José Antonio Montenegro, this is Globo Economía
[00:00:53] today dedicating our time to the American
[00:00:56] economy, to what lies ahead, to what is on
[00:01:00] the horizon, many self-inflicted
[00:01:03] problems and many gratuitous
[00:01:06] problems by the country's own administration, which should not
[00:01:10] be there, but well, they are there as a consequence, as
[00:01:13] I say, of that attack
[00:01:16] against oneself, which goes well, from the
[00:01:19] Iran war to the
[00:01:23] tariffs issue, passing through other issues that we may not have
[00:01:26] focused so much on, but that... are there, for
[00:01:30] example, immigration, well, it turns out that immigrants
[00:01:34] are not that they are not a problem of the caliber that we normally
[00:01:38] hear, in that false narrative of
[00:01:41] immigration as a problem, as
[00:01:44] a great, in short,
[00:01:46] for the voters of misfortune for the country, but rather the opposite, more
[00:01:49] immigrants are needed, there are a lot of sectors
[00:01:53] scenario, so to speak, of from, of course, the agricultural to
[00:01:56] hearing everything and more the real estate, construction and health sectors, and a very
[00:02:00] long list that would need
[00:02:05] depends on reputation and more jobs of a type that immigrants usually fill and that are not
[00:02:08] available, that's similar to the issue you may have heard
[00:02:12] recently with meat imports, well, this country
[00:02:15] was going to import, it was going to
[00:02:19] have everything done internally, but now it turns out that to lower prices
[00:02:22] and as a consequence of inflation, we have to
[00:02:25] import minced meat
[00:02:28] from abroad, well, that's what there is, I say, to
[00:02:31] talk about some
[00:02:35] images that reflect how the economy is, all in an
[00:02:39] economic scenario that we have to say that the stock market
[00:02:42] completely
[00:02:45] the majority of saves it, the good performance of the stock market and the consumption of the sectors
[00:02:48] with greater purchasing power, there is a group
[00:02:51] of population and
[00:02:54] financial activity that is doing exceptionally well and that many
[00:02:57] times the numbers
[00:03:00] the more global numbers seen from above
[00:03:04] turn out very, very satisfactorily,
[00:03:08] we constantly talk about the resilience of this economy, which is
[00:03:11] absolutely real also about
[00:03:15] how that pull of consumption is happening,
[00:03:20] today dedicating ourselves to but for a very small part, that pull of consumption is what economists call a
[00:03:24] K-shaped consumption, meaning there is a
[00:03:27] going forward, we have talked in sector of the population that is doing very well and there is another sector
[00:03:30] of the population, which are all the middle classes and less
[00:03:33] favored classes, who are doing very badly with consumption, but
[00:03:37] that seems to even be getting into
[00:03:40] difficulties because companies that are key to
[00:03:44] measuring this, like Walmart, say they are noticing less
[00:03:47] movement lately
[00:03:50] in their warehouses and that, in short,
[00:03:54] consumption is increasingly
[00:03:56] in suffering, finally we are going to ask ourselves, because these are one of the
[00:04:00] issues that I say are very important on the horizon,
[00:04:04] what happens with that scenario that has been worrying us for a long
[00:04:07] time, of an
[00:04:09] economy that, well, continues with a very
[00:04:13] high inflation, higher than desirable, between 3 and
[00:04:16] 4%, and a
[00:04:19] consumption that does not quite pull with the necessary
[00:04:23] force, that is, a scenario of this
[00:04:25] stagflation that would be very difficult to
[00:04:29] Mancora, the best surfing destination in correct, eh, also something that has happened in recent
[00:04:33] inflation was being moderated and what times is relevant, the debt of this country is absolutely skyrocketing, it is
[00:04:37] 40 trillion dollars,
[00:04:40] and in short, that makes the task of
[00:04:43] the Fed and the economic progress itself very difficult,
[00:04:47] because it means that
[00:04:48] somewhat moderate, it did not completely to place bonds you have to pay
[00:04:51] much more than a few months ago,
[00:04:55] but let's go into detail with the help of my guest today,
[00:04:59] the economist. Professor at Yale University and good friend of this
[00:05:02] program, José
[00:05:05] moderate stagflation, if you want, Antonio Espín Sánchez. José Antonio, how are you? Welcome to Globo com to Globo
[00:05:08] Economía. Hello, José Antonio, thank you very much and as
[00:05:12] always. a pleasure and a pleasure to be here talking about economics
[00:05:14] with you, hey, and let's start with
[00:05:18] with a little of what I was telling you about the description of the
[00:05:22] economy of this country, well, I have done something very focused on two or three things, but in
[00:05:26] a very general way, from above, the big
[00:05:29] numbers, the big magnitudes that we always
[00:05:33] have to look at, how would
[00:05:34] you describe it to us?
[00:05:37] well, the economy is not doing badly at all, but it is in a very
[00:05:41] delicate situation, right?
[00:05:43] As you well said, inflation numbers are not yet
[00:05:46] controlled, the war and other
[00:05:50] external factors continue to push inflation a little, so
[00:05:54] monetary policy tools are somewhat
[00:05:57] limited, the other factor you mentioned about the debt
[00:06:00] that has practically doubled in the last decade also makes
[00:06:04] the fiscal lever to correct if we enter a recession have
[00:06:08] quite limited effectiveness, right? because there is already a lot
[00:06:11] of debt and the markets
[00:06:15] are starting to resent it, they are starting to penalize how
[00:06:19] American debt is paid long-term, the dollar is not as
[00:06:22] strong as it was even a few years ago, eh, so as you
[00:06:26] well said, capital, people
[00:06:30] with high purchasing power continue
[00:06:33] market, especially with things like artificial intelligence and related
[00:06:36] companies, are still pushing a little, but we are in a
[00:06:39] situation where something could happen. If something happens, we don't have
[00:06:43] many tools to fix it, we are all, let's say,
[00:06:47] at the limit, both the indebtedness of public
[00:06:50] administrations and the indebtedness of households are almost all
[00:06:54] at the limit, eh,
[00:06:56] let me say that these are perhaps particular but important
[00:07:00] issues, I mentioned in my
[00:07:03] presentation about immigration, well, we have been
[00:07:08] negative about immigration. There is a whole
[00:07:12] narrative about the serious problems it presents, I
[00:07:16] always insist, of course we are not talking about open
[00:07:20] doors, of course immigration has to have a
[00:07:23] regulation, of course
[00:07:25] common sense must prevail in this as in all
[00:07:29] other chapters of life and the
[00:07:32] economy, but now it turns out that something that was
[00:07:36] coming from somewhere else, that is, it is no surprise, at least it has not been for
[00:07:39] me, that immigrants are needed. Immigrants
[00:07:43] are needed to harvest crops in the agricultural
[00:07:46] sector, immigrants are needed in the health
[00:07:50] sector, because they are needed,
[00:07:54] they are needed in construction, because
[00:07:57] the works and houses in this country
[00:08:01] are built by immigrants, well, and what do we do,
[00:08:05] right? Because these things cannot be, that is, there are
[00:08:08] advances and setbacks all the
[00:08:11] cannot be corrected overnight, right? Is
[00:08:14] that right? Am I exaggerating?
[00:08:17] No, totally agree, what we have talked about again in the program, right? This uncertainty, the
[00:08:21] word uncertainty that has been created, this lack of rigor
[00:08:24] and rule of law, that people
[00:08:28] come to other countries, certain investments, not only
[00:08:31] local but also foreign, and every three months
[00:08:35] the Supreme Court changes the directive, the White House says one
[00:08:38] thing, then says another, each one pushing for their own side
[00:08:42] and... and this is about people who have made, like
[00:08:45] American businessmen, investments to finish a building, as they said in
[00:08:48] construction, they have made investments to produce a harvest, and after
[00:08:52] three months, the regulation changes, the policy changes, the
[00:08:56] air changes, and they realize that they cannot
[00:08:59] find workers to finish a
[00:09:02] commitment, an investment they had made, right? So this
[00:09:05] uncertainty is what is creating, let's say, the lack of
[00:09:08] consumption, the rise in prices and, as you well said,
[00:09:12] the administration, instead of trying to
[00:09:15] reduce uncertainty or help more people come
[00:09:18] to be able to work and finish these works we mentioned,
[00:09:21] on the contrary,
[00:09:24] what it does is have that idea that if they don't come from outside,
[00:09:28] people from inside will do it and it will be done the same and something that is not
[00:09:32] happening for different reasons, we have to take
[00:09:36] a break and when we return, we will have skipped the topic of the
[00:09:40] stellar tariffs.
[00:09:42] Of course, no one had thought of starting to impose
[00:09:46] tariffs for decades and
[00:09:49] decades and decades and decades, well, there must have been
[00:09:53] a reason, I have always insisted on some kind, now
[00:09:57] we know why and we will comment on it when we return, in Globo Economía.
[00:10:20] Live from Mexico
[00:10:22] City.
[00:10:25] A story can change everything, a look at
[00:10:28] the reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people
[00:10:32] determined to rise, it evolved very quickly and we never thought
[00:10:36] it would reach category five, and to understand what
[00:10:39] is happening, let's go with my colleague Ione Molinares to
[00:10:43] Washington,
[00:10:45] the explosion, we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire
[00:10:49] facade, we listen to the protagonists, they
[00:10:53] mocked us as mothers.
[00:10:55] and fathers of the 43, where she lived a bomb
[00:10:58] fell, we are about to board this Mexican air force plane
[00:11:02] heading to Romania to have a complete
[00:11:05] view, we are here as migrants to progress and
[00:11:08] make this country grow, there are great stories to know and many
[00:11:12] perspectives to analyze. Perspectives with Mario
[00:11:15] González, Monday to Friday on
[00:11:18] CNN.
[00:11:21] I am Mexican-British, I have been practicing
[00:11:25] journalism in Mexico City, in the United
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[00:11:43] In those three hours, you will not only have information from a
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[00:12:01] What excites me most is informing, inquiring,
[00:12:05] investigating the why of things, getting to the bottom of
[00:12:08] the facts, here you will see what makes news and everything that
[00:12:12] impacts your daily life. CNN America with Rebeca
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[00:12:17] CNN.
[00:12:30] The full story with Anderson Cooper, CNN's best journalists
[00:12:34] share deeply documented
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[00:12:43] What would your advice be to me? You believe the civil
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[00:13:42] We are back to Globo Economía
[00:13:45] reviewing how the economy of this country, the United
[00:13:48] States, is doing and how it seems to be
[00:13:52] the first part, the first segment of this program, about all the self-inflicted
[00:13:56] attacks, I was referring to the chosen war
[00:13:59] in Iran, and I was
[00:14:02] referring to the issue of immigration, cutting it off and
[00:14:05] creating problems, but there is the issue of
[00:14:09] tariffs, absolutely stellar, which, well, every
[00:14:12] day they are a new problem, uncertainty
[00:14:16] and a difficult
[00:14:19] normalization now once
[00:14:22] we want to do something else. Is that not
[00:14:26] right? No,
[00:14:28] it seems, if it weren't for the consequences, it would be a funny
[00:14:32] thing, as it has been going on for more than a year, more than a year and a half, with the back and
[00:14:36] forth, the Supreme Court has even said that the executive
[00:14:39] branch, the White House, does not have the power to set them, the refunds to
[00:14:43] companies have been ordered and we are still going,
[00:14:47] even fighting now with Canada and with the European
[00:14:50] Union, our traditional
[00:14:53] and legitimate partners, and it
[00:14:57] is trying to use an economic weapon that, as I said, is very
[00:15:00] dangerous as a
[00:15:03] diplomatic pressure measure,
[00:15:06] but in the end it is not clear who is winning with all this, with
[00:15:09] all this absurd war,
[00:15:12] and then it is producing situations in which
[00:15:15] there are already supply problems, like that is
[00:15:19] very, it is a metaphor of, well, it is something that is not so
[00:15:22] representative, it is representative, but I mean there are many more things, or the
[00:15:26] meat that I mentioned
[00:15:28] in the previous segment, well, it was supposed to be
[00:15:32] something we had internally and that we could solve here, that it was going to
[00:15:36] promote that industry, well, it seems that no, that for prices to go
[00:15:39] down, we have to import from
[00:15:43] abroad, so the result in many
[00:15:46] chapters, in many
[00:15:49] headings, is not that it is
[00:15:53] not what was expected, it is just the opposite of what was expected,
[00:15:57] right?
[00:15:59] Indeed, the problem with tariffs, even in
[00:16:03] the best of cases when the idea works, is that you can put
[00:16:07] tariffs on finished products that local
[00:16:10] companies produce, but if you put tariffs on products that are an
[00:16:14] input to what your local companies produce, what you are doing is the
[00:16:18] opposite, instead of generating employment, you are reducing employment, so of course, this
[00:16:22] policy of saying tariffs to such a country
[00:16:24] or to such
[00:16:27] uniformly to everything, does not take into account these
[00:16:30] differences, which means that even local production, as it needs
[00:16:34] its inputs, let's say, from abroad, is not producing
[00:16:38] one of the problems we mentioned with the war in Iran
[00:16:41] is the scarcity that is beginning to be noticed of
[00:16:44] fertilizers, and fertilizers are needed to grow alfalfa
[00:16:48] or corn, which are then an input for cows and
[00:16:52] livestock, right? So everything is connected, when demand begins to be interrupted, these
[00:16:56] things, of course, in the end even local producers, it's not that you have already imposed
[00:17:00] taxes on the import of beef, it's that you are also
[00:17:03] affecting the inputs that farmers need to
[00:17:07] be able to function, both workers and
[00:17:10] fertilizers, right? So everything is affected and what
[00:17:14] ends up happening is that prices go up and, as you well said,
[00:17:18] specifically meat is a very popular thing
[00:17:23] the current administration and now they have come up with another
[00:17:26] thing to keep them happy that, as you say, completely
[00:17:30] contradicts everything you said, they are not solutions, they are
[00:17:33] patches here and there to see how it works every day.
[00:17:37] Totally, and we haven't even pronounced the word "Strait of
[00:17:40] Hormuz" because the issue of fertilizers you mentioned is linked to
[00:17:44] that, that is, well, it's oil, that is, it's another
[00:17:48] inflationary point, energy is going up, oil is
[00:17:51] going up, but a lot of other products that
[00:17:55] usually pass, as is the case of fertilizers, through that
[00:17:59] strait, which it turns out that during
[00:18:02] all, in short, the history we know was a free
[00:18:05] passage and now it turns out that we are talking about whether it
[00:18:09] belongs to Oman, to Iran, to the United
[00:18:13] States, that is, it is a kind of,
[00:18:16] I insist, a self-inflicted shot in the foot, one of
[00:18:20] those that one gives oneself when one is very bad here,
[00:18:24] let's go to a break and when we
[00:18:27] return, two important issues on the
[00:18:30] horizon, stagflation,
[00:18:34] it seems that we may not be able to avoid it, but it is important.
[00:19:07] I know it's difficult, but how do you reach a balance,
[00:19:11] eh, in which we don't lose sight of this that we had all
[00:19:14] over the place when we started preparing this
[00:19:17] talk, which is the common good objective, that we
[00:19:21] all benefit, not just a few, it
[00:19:24] should not be a business, because as a
[00:19:27] business, other things can be invented, but something so
[00:19:31] delicate and with so much technological advancement as artificial
[00:19:35] intelligence must have a
[00:19:38] basic condition that it serves a
[00:19:42] majority of humans.
[00:23:05] Hello again, Globo Economía, today we are talking about the economy of
[00:23:08] the United States with José Antonio Espín
[00:23:12] Sánchez, professor of economics at Yale
[00:23:15] University, in this last segment we
[00:23:18] said that we did not want to stop reviewing
[00:23:21] two topics that we believe are very definitive for
[00:23:25] the future, very relevant, the first is
[00:23:29] that of, well, what
[00:23:32] happens if we don't grow or
[00:23:35] we grow at a rate that is not too
[00:23:38] strong and at the same time inflation, however,
[00:23:42] skyrockets, it goes ahead, that is, if we are in these numbers
[00:23:45] of around 3 and 4% or a little
[00:23:49] more of the... at a given moment and yet the
[00:23:53] growth continues at two, two and something, which is good, we must
[00:23:56] insist, this economy is not bad, this economy is a very
[00:23:59] resilient, very strong economy, that responds to everything and that
[00:24:03] even in such absolutely extreme circumstances as
[00:24:06] these it is responding
[00:24:08] well, confirm to me now if it is so, but of course
[00:24:12] when you put it in such an excessive
[00:24:15] stress state like this, it's not eternal either,
[00:24:19] so the issue of the question of stagflation, that
[00:24:22] situation in which there is a lot of inflation and not much
[00:24:25] growth, could it be around the corner or do you think that the
[00:24:29] resilience and the strength and muscle that this economy has
[00:24:32] will save that less desired
[00:24:34] scenario?
[00:24:37] No, I think that this inflation in a more moderate way than it was in the 70s and 80s
[00:24:41] is already here, right? As you said before,
[00:24:46] the COVID crisis, 2020,
[00:24:49] there was an expansionary fiscal policy to prevent
[00:24:53] a more lasting crisis, right? We especially
[00:24:56] economists had in mind that in the 2008
[00:25:00] crisis, the fiscal response was not as great as it should
[00:25:03] have been, so in 2020 a larger
[00:25:07] fiscal response was made, eh, now some think it was a little too
[00:25:10] large due to the inflation it generated, but at least that
[00:25:14] crisis was avoided, especially at a global level, but as you said, for
[00:25:18] 2024 it had already gone down. Spending was being reduced,
[00:25:23] we needed was a fiscal and monetary policy,
[00:25:27] let's say, moderate to get out of that spiral of
[00:25:30] inflation, eh, and what happened was that, well, monetary
[00:25:34] policy remained at least
[00:25:38] get out of inflation, but fiscal policy with these tax
[00:25:41] cuts, not the big beautiful bill and other things, fiscal policy was
[00:25:45] expansive at a time when it needed to be more moderate as I said
[00:25:49] and that is what has generated this spiral we have of this
[00:25:55] in which unemployment remains high, inflation remains high,
[00:25:58] the deficit is enormous and it is not going down and...
[00:26:02] and this has a limit that is relatively close, I
[00:26:06] think, because as we said, you cannot continue to increase debt
[00:26:10] without any control, and the markets
[00:26:13] are already penalizing American debt, something that, as I said, had not happened in
[00:26:17] decades,
[00:26:19] that is a scenario, the markets are penalizing American
[00:26:23] debt, that is the phrase, that is what worries
[00:26:26] most, that is, this economy has always had a
[00:26:29] debt that if it had something
[00:26:32] as a primary quality it was
[00:26:35] security, that is to say, the United States debt is a safe debt, it is a
[00:26:39] debt that has no problems and that is why it allowed to have some,
[00:26:43] you had to pay the people who bought it something reasonable, right now
[00:26:46] it is not like that, that is, the yields
[00:26:50] that have to be paid at 10 and 30
[00:26:53] years have grown and grow daily in a way that many
[00:26:56] times you say, hey, be careful, this is not a situation we have handled, this
[00:27:00] is a new situation because the company. or what is behind all this, these
[00:27:04] things we talk about is that there is a loss of confidence in what will happen
[00:27:08] in 10 or 30 years here, is that right,
[00:27:11] yes, indeed, as I said, the debt has grown
[00:27:15] and above all to pay that debt you have to make
[00:27:18] political decisions that are costly in political
[00:27:21] terms, you have to raise taxes and lower spending and that is
[00:27:25] something that the last three administrations, let's
[00:27:28] say, for different reasons, have not done, the deficit, in any case, has
[00:27:31] increased, which means that the markets think that there is no
[00:27:35] scenario, as I said, in the short and medium term in which anyone is going
[00:27:39] to lower spending and raise taxes to start reducing that debt, so the
[00:27:43] expectation is that the debt will continue growing and and as we said
[00:27:46] another spiral, no, the debt continues to grow, the markets penalize, the interest rate
[00:27:50] they charge you goes up, so the debt goes up even more, no, so this is a
[00:27:55] a banana republic in
[00:27:58] which, as we are seeing, it is relatively easy to enter
[00:28:02] with... increasing spending and it is very difficult to get out because it is something that
[00:28:07] future expectations and they are very difficult to
[00:28:11] change, exactly, very very difficult
[00:28:14] to correct, we have very little time, but in that scenario the
[00:28:18] Fed clear neither can, the Fed
[00:28:21] has a relatively small room for maneuver,
[00:28:25] no, yes, yes, as we said, that is fiscal policy, we have already
[00:28:29] said what it is, monetary policy, uh, as...
[00:28:33] Diaz, the Fed has been, amidst everything that is happening, the only adult in the
[00:28:37] room that has still behaved reasonably, eh, with the new president of the
[00:28:41] Fed, eh, it seems that
[00:28:44] all new cheer, it seems that it will still maintain a
[00:28:48] reasonable way, without, let's say, lowering interest rates
[00:28:51] too much, but but of course, the Fed is, as we said, in
[00:28:55] this situation, if the economy starts to not grow
[00:28:58] so much, there will be a lot of pressure for the Fed to lower rates and... in
[00:29:02] this case, inflation will skyrocket, so it will be even harder to get
[00:29:05] out of here, so as I said, we are in
[00:29:08] a moment that is currently eh, let's say
[00:29:12] critical but stable, but if something happens that
[00:29:15] causes the economy to decelerate, for example, eh, the Fed will
[00:29:19] be in a very difficult situation and will not have much room to
[00:29:23] maneuver to improve, no, and as I said, we can forget about fiscal policy because fiscal
[00:29:26] policy is already, let's say, at its maximum
[00:29:30] of the policy. Go on, well
[00:29:34] Antonio, well, our time is up, we
[00:29:37] have to go, of course the topic gives for much, much, much more,
[00:29:41] especially if you talk to you, thank you very much for having
[00:29:44] been in Globo Economía,
[00:29:47] thank you very much Jose Antonio, as always a pleasure and a
[00:29:50] delight to be here talking about economics with you,
[00:29:54] it was Jose Antonio Espin Sanchez, professor of economics at the
[00:29:57] University of Yale, thank you very much and thank you all for being
[00:30:01] with us every week. and letting us into your
[00:30:05] homes, until next week on Globo
[00:30:08] Economía, a big hug.
[00:30:32] We are CNN, the world leader in
[00:30:35] news.
[00:30:44] Every election in Brazil, the world watches with attention.
[00:30:48] Fifth largest country on the planet, tenth largest
[00:30:51] economy in the world. More than a country, a continent, within
[00:30:55] a continent. But this election is especially
[00:30:58] relevant. Two last names face each other again, although
[00:31:01] now it is. the son and not the father, who represents the
[00:31:05] Bolsonaros, Flavio versus
[00:31:08] Lula, a country.