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[00:00:00] nominal, interesting, key for our countries what
[00:00:03] happens in Brazil and we follow it attentively in a new global
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[00:00:38] sociedad, lo
[00:00:46] President Trump in Denton, Texas, he was there on Thursday as part of an
[00:00:50] offensive a month before the midterm elections, in which Trump
[00:00:53] says the problem is not the country's
[00:00:57] situation, not the economy or the price of fuel, but he says that
[00:01:01] Republicans have not been able to sell how well things are going,
[00:01:04] President Trump's policies and the
[00:01:08] country's success. On Friday, the unemployment figure
[00:01:11] came out, it dropped slightly to 4.2%, only
[00:01:15] 26,000 jobs were created, which pleased the markets
[00:01:18] because it's a sign that they might postpone the interest rate hike
[00:01:22] in October, but that's the scenario under which we begin
[00:01:26] this edition of "Clash of Opinions," a message of optimism from Trump,
[00:01:30] which reminds me of Hans Christian Andersen's
[00:01:34] "The Emperor's New Clothes," but we'll talk about that later. I'm going to
[00:01:38] introduce our guests. Here in Washington
[00:01:41] are Rocío Obéz, she is a Republican strategist
[00:01:44] lawyer. We are also joined by Tatiana Dangón,
[00:01:48] political analyst and lawyer from Miami,
[00:01:51] César Grajales, strategist and analyst, and from San José
[00:01:55] in Costa Rica, Juan Carlos Hidalgo. Thank you to all four of you for
[00:01:58] joining us. Rocío, I'll start with you. President Trump has
[00:02:01] said, everything is very good, what has
[00:02:04] failed is selling the
[00:02:06] country left at 9:30 AM from the Angel de la message. That's the scenario, and that's why the
[00:02:09] polls give the Democrats a considerable advantage
[00:02:14] you read, don't believe what you hear, believe what for a month from now. Have the Republicans made a mistake by not selling the success of the Trump
[00:02:18] administration? Uh, there are several
[00:02:21] factors, and first, although we always want to talk about a Donald Trump
[00:02:24] and him being the messenger, the
[00:02:28] elections, which are quite local and
[00:02:31] regional, each
[00:02:34] of those candidates has to
[00:02:38] had to do it months ago, but in these
[00:02:40] but what next 30 days it has to be a message that despite
[00:02:45] understanding the reality of inflation having risen and the high
[00:02:48] the topic of the gasoline costs being a factor, that message
[00:02:51] can be in Minnesota as
[00:02:54] he knows more than it can be in Maine, it's a very different factor, and for President
[00:02:58] Trump to be only the lead singer and wanting to do it for the next
[00:03:02] 30 days, it can be something positive because he
[00:03:06] gets people to vote, and that's a factor, right? The Maga
[00:03:09] people, the more independents, not necessarily, right?
[00:03:12] Because the movement and that independent vote
[00:03:18] to generate a discourse of right now is very difficult for both the Democratic and Republican parties, they are in
[00:03:21] complete dissatisfaction. So what I
[00:03:25] think is that we are going to have a moment
[00:03:29] where the White House, no matter how much it wants to sell,
[00:03:32] the war in Iran has been a problem, and
[00:03:35] if they achieve something in the next two or three weeks that is a miracle,
[00:03:39] yes, they could recover, but
[00:03:42] I don't think that the president launching
[00:03:45] himself, right, and trying to do all this as if nothing has happened,
[00:03:48] being in complete denial, will help
[00:03:52] him either. It didn't help Joe Biden, it doesn't usually help
[00:03:55] presidents when they say nothing has happened, all of this is in transition, they have to go
[00:03:59] with a clear message of what the
[00:04:03] solutions are and what positive things will be happening for either of the
[00:04:06] two parties, that's exactly what will happen. César,
[00:04:10] the president insists, he says: things are good,
[00:04:13] the press doesn't report them, the candidates don't know how to
[00:04:17] sell them. Uh, the reality is that the polls are a
[00:04:20] reflection of the moment, but right now the accumulated advantage is 12
[00:04:24] points for the Democrats in these elections, which generally
[00:04:27] favor the opposition party. There's the
[00:04:31] high price of fuel and a series of controversies.
[00:04:34] This is a strategy that Republicans should follow. Is the president right
[00:04:38] that the mistake is not selling the
[00:04:40] message about the success that the United States is experiencing?
[00:04:43] Let's see, um, I think that the president, in this
[00:04:46] comment, yes, I completely disagree with him,
[00:04:49] I don't think it's a matter of the country being
[00:04:53] excellent. I think the country has made very valuable changes, I think the country
[00:04:56] was coming from a streak of 4 years that, in my opinion, was not
[00:05:00] positive for the country in terms of, at least, security, in terms of
[00:05:04] immigration, and in economic terms, obviously the
[00:05:07] president made some promises and some changes
[00:05:10] uh for what was going to improve the American's pocket
[00:05:14] and, for example, in terms of the tax reform, and I have mentioned
[00:05:18] it several times, I think that is something very important that the daily voter
[00:05:22] forgets the relevance that this reform has to
[00:05:25] be able to save more money in their pocket, a
[00:05:29] reform that was uh
[00:05:32] not only extended but already permanent in last year's
[00:05:35] legislation, but I also think that the issue of saying that
[00:05:39] everything is fine and not recognizing that there are groups, and I think...
[00:05:43] yes, he mentioned it very well, politics is local.
[00:05:46] People, for example, here in Miami, in certain areas
[00:05:50] of Miami, who go and fill up their gas tank
[00:05:53] with $20 extra
[00:05:56] truly feel it.
[00:05:59] They feel that message in an insensitive way, and they
[00:06:02] forget that last year's tax reform, for example, was
[00:06:06] a positive thing. So I think there are positive things, I think
[00:06:09] that in the cost of living, uh, it has not
[00:06:13] gone well, I suppose if I had to grade it, I would give
[00:06:17] it a B, I wouldn't give it an A, nor would I give it a
[00:06:20] D, but I think he has to be more of a leader
[00:06:24] to explain what the plan is, how much longer Americans
[00:06:27] will feel the pain in their pockets, at least in
[00:06:31] terms of gasoline, but not simply say that everything is
[00:06:34] fine because many districts,
[00:06:38] and in this electoral cycle, many districts are feeling that economic
[00:06:42] part, and denial does not help. Now, I want to conclude with the
[00:06:45] following: on average, on average, comparing most
[00:06:49] US presidencies, the incumbent president loses around
[00:06:52] 26 seats during that midterm
[00:06:55] period. However, some projections with Trump's
[00:06:59] popularity, which is around 38%,
[00:07:02] some projections say plus or minus
[00:07:06] 19 seats in Congress, in the House of Representatives. If that
[00:07:10] happens, Juan Carlos, it seems that the president is not as
[00:07:13] bad as many seem to be showing, and
[00:07:17] the greatest example, for example, in 2010, President Obama had just
[00:07:21] passed Obamacare, which was a popular reform for many,
[00:07:24] and yet he lost around 63
[00:07:28] seats in Congress and had a popularity of 45%.
[00:07:31] So I don't think the president is as bad as
[00:07:35] many claim, or the party led by the
[00:07:38] president, but I think it is important that he recognize
[00:07:42] the economic problem and how he will improve it in the coming
[00:07:45] weeks and months. Tatiana, President Trump visited
[00:07:49] Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, his tour for these 30 days
[00:07:53] will be in Republican-majority states to mobilize
[00:07:55] his base, and César said, projections and polls are one thing,
[00:07:59] we won't know until after November 3rd when the
[00:08:03] elections are held, but the outlook is not favorable. Is
[00:08:06] Trump's message a denial of reality, or is it simply
[00:08:10] an attempt to minimize the losses of what could come, if it is
[00:08:14] confirmed that the Democrats will at least regain the House of
[00:08:17] Representatives?
[00:08:19] Of course, Juan Carlos, here we are facing a scenario where Trump tries to
[00:08:22] use a strategy known as the bandwagon
[00:08:26] effect, where he seeks
[00:08:30] optimism, because a defeatist
[00:08:33] discourse, a discourse that shows that the results are
[00:08:37] not favoring the Republican party and that, of
[00:08:40] course, the polls reflect this, well, a defeatist
[00:08:44] discourse can generate a loss of votes within
[00:08:48] his own base, and the reality we are seeing now is
[00:08:52] that within the Republicans themselves, there is a
[00:08:55] certain pessimism regarding the results.
[00:08:58] There is also, within the Republicans themselves, an enormous
[00:09:02] distancing or a great distancing from
[00:09:05] Trump's support. Many candidates are distancing themselves from
[00:09:08] receiving that support from Trump because they know very well that these
[00:09:12] midterm elections, although President Trump will not be
[00:09:16] elected, are a referendum, a way
[00:09:19] to assess how his government has been, and
[00:09:23] in effect, what it shows is that his government has not fulfilled
[00:09:27] a promise that was central to his campaign, which is to
[00:09:30] improve the cost of living, the economy or the
[00:09:33] pockets of Americans, and of course
[00:09:36] that also comes accompanied by factors
[00:09:39] such as the war in Iran that has raised gasoline
[00:09:42] prices, it also comes accompanied by the
[00:09:46] deportation policy and the immigration policy
[00:09:50] that in some way has been contrary to the promises he made in
[00:09:53] his campaign and that has lost a great reach within a group that in the
[00:09:57] last elections supported him, such as the Latino vote.
[00:10:01] And I'll close with this: perhaps
[00:10:04] the bandwagon effect does not have
[00:10:08] or what Trump seeks with his optimism campaign does not
[00:10:11] he expects, because in the end, as many have
[00:10:15] argued here, these elections are also measured
[00:10:18] by the pocket, and historical records show that at least for the
[00:10:22] House, the parties that are in
[00:10:25] government tend to lose elections, except in specific cases
[00:10:28] like Clinton in
[00:10:31] 1998 and Bush in
[00:10:34] 2002, but of course, everything tends to
[00:10:37] indicate that what Trump is arguing, blaming Republicans for not knowing
[00:10:41] how to communicate the results of his government, is not the
[00:10:44] reality and is not what
[00:10:47] results of these elections. Juan Carlos, there is an interesting
[00:10:51] phenomenon, which is that the same forces or the same
[00:10:55] pressure that led to
[00:10:58] the elections not being favorable to the
[00:11:02] Democrats against Trump, the economy, the
[00:11:05] perception that things are not going well, are the same thing that is
[00:11:09] now going to come back to haunt the Republicans, we will see if it is confirmed,
[00:11:12] and I say this because if one looks at the
[00:11:15] basic economic data, it is not bad.
[00:11:19] The economy, unemployment is at 4.2%, which is the
[00:11:23] latest figure, which is very low unemployment, inflation is
[00:11:27] high, but the markets react
[00:11:30] positively, there are many pressures, but it is still
[00:11:33] an economy with a performance
[00:11:36] that is considered favorable. Here Trump is facing the same
[00:11:39] process and is interpreting it in his own way. Yes, and
[00:11:43] see how interesting, because indeed what cost the Democrats the
[00:11:46] election in 2020,
[00:11:49] uh, 26,
[00:11:52] 24, was not the defense of democracy, it was not
[00:11:56] the defense of institutions, it was an economic
[00:11:59] issue. The cost of living during Joe Biden's
[00:12:02] presidency, inflation increased above levels we hadn't seen
[00:12:06] since the early 80s. This eventually took its
[00:12:09] toll on the Democrats, there is no other explanation. In this
[00:12:13] case, of course, inflation has fallen from those high levels it
[00:12:16] reached, approximately 9%, but it is very far from
[00:12:20] reaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. It has been
[00:12:24] between 3.6 and 3.8,
[00:12:27] and with a cause, and it has increased due to a
[00:12:30] very identifiable cause that is very attributable to Donald Trump's
[00:12:34] government, the war in Iran. When the
[00:12:37] increase in inflation occurred during Biden's presidency, it was due, of
[00:12:41] course, to the effects of the pandemic, to an injection of a lot
[00:12:44] of liquidity into the economy, a result of the fiscal
[00:12:47] stimuli that were made due to the pandemic. Even so, people
[00:12:51] identified that those policies were the ones that fueled
[00:12:54] inflation. In this case, the cause
[00:12:57] is much more identifiable, an invasion of a country that was
[00:13:01] totally without any kind of provocation, which raised oil
[00:13:04] prices, energy costs, and that has been transmitted throughout the economy,
[00:13:08] we see it then not only with the price of gasoline but also the price of diesel
[00:13:12] which has been close to $6 per
[00:13:16] gallon and that, of course, is transmitted into higher production
[00:13:19] costs for farmers, for public transport, etcetera,
[00:13:23] etcetera. So
[00:13:25] it is much more difficult for Republicans to defend their
[00:13:29] economic record, despite all the other things you say, it is indeed
[00:13:33] a very resilient economy,
[00:13:35] but ultimately what matters to Americans is not
[00:13:39] so much how the stock market is doing, how the unemployment rate is,
[00:13:43] it is the cost of living, and that has been aggravated by the war in Iran and by tariffs.
[00:13:46] Well, we have to
[00:14:18] break.
[00:14:22] The full story with Anderson Cooper, the best.
[00:17:42] Since Trump was a candidate in 2015, he has been sending a
[00:17:45] message in which he tells voters directly,
[00:17:48] don't believe what you see, don't believe what
[00:17:51] I tell you, in that case the president of the United States, and he now says
[00:17:55] that things are very good, but let's review a poll from this week
[00:17:59] from API, one of the questions is
[00:18:02] about how Trump is doing in terms of cost of
[00:18:05] living. From September
[00:18:07] 18th to 24th, the result is that barely
[00:18:10] 17%, that is, two out of every 10 respondents,
[00:18:14] approves of Trump's management in terms of cost of living,
[00:18:17] 82% disapproves.
[00:18:20] Uh, Tatiana already mentioned
[00:18:25] emperor's new clothes, because one would think
[00:18:28] that Trump is disconnected from reality,
[00:18:32] we do and what the economic
[00:18:35] numbers show. A while ago, for example, a
[00:18:38] midterm convention, the first time the
[00:18:41] Republicans do it in Dallas, Texas,
[00:18:44] he was the protagonist, there he told voters to pretend that
[00:18:48] he is on the ballot and told them to make all the fraud they want for the Republicans to
[00:18:52] win. Trump promises, but his message is
[00:18:55] clear, but that strategy shows
[00:18:58] a Trump who sees a different country than the rest of Americans
[00:19:02] see. Of course, the disconnection
[00:19:06] is not in how the economy is managed, but the disconnection
[00:19:10] is in how much the cost of living is for Americans,
[00:19:13] and precisely now they were talking about how the economy and employment rates
[00:19:17] can go up, but that doesn't necessarily directly
[00:19:21] affect the cost of living for people, and the truth
[00:19:24] is that a person when they go to a supermarket, when they need
[00:19:28] to get gas, they realize that everything is much
[00:19:31] more expensive, and that is the reality that people live in, and I think
[00:19:35] the perfect example is California. Monthly,
[00:19:38] thousands of jobs are created in California, and that does not mean
[00:19:41] that it reduces in any way or improves the
[00:19:45] conditions of the cost of living, and I think here an additional
[00:19:48] example that serves very well to understand how Americans are thinking
[00:19:52] and how the cost of living is at the forefront is the success that Mandani has had
[00:19:56] in New York with his campaign,
[00:20:00] he focused precisely on understanding that the main concern of citizens
[00:20:03] was the cost of living and not other things in which
[00:20:08] many leaders get distracted when doing these campaigns,
[00:20:11] so I would close with this, surely there is an immense disconnection of the
[00:20:15] president with the reality that Americans are living, and especially
[00:20:19] regarding the cost of living, but we should add to this that all
[00:20:23] of this is of course part of his campaign strategy and the logic
[00:20:27] he always follows where his narrative must be
[00:20:30] the one that must prevail over the others. Here, César,
[00:20:34] this week, for example, there was controversy, the government was publishing
[00:20:37] ads that they say are public
[00:20:41] announcements, but they are very similar to his
[00:20:44] campaign ads, which were paid for with funds from the Immigration
[00:20:48] and Customs Enforcement. He says it is to foster
[00:20:50] patriotism, but
[00:20:54] they look like campaign issues at a time when the
[00:20:58] country's situation is complex, and
[00:21:01] you said something that is also interesting, we will see if this is confirmed on November
[00:21:04] 3rd and if Trump gets away with it, but if not, if the
[00:21:07] Democrats win the House and win both the House and Senate, the
[00:21:11] scenario for Trump will be very different starting next
[00:21:14] year. Juan Carlos, several things. First,
[00:21:18] well, yes, I understand what you mentioned about the commercials they've been running, I'm not going
[00:21:22] to go into whether beyond how a certain
[00:21:25] electorate perceives it, there are others
[00:21:28] who believe that it is a call to that
[00:21:32] patriotism to the United
[00:21:35] States. The issue of how
[00:21:38] the president will fare will not only be, for me, a
[00:21:41] reflection of how the next two years will be
[00:21:45] in the legislative part and how Donald Trump's presidency
[00:21:48] turns out, but also how
[00:21:51] 2028 comes. I think that will also be a thermometer, a very valuable
[00:21:55] thermometer for that 2028, who
[00:21:59] can really take the lead for the Republicans
[00:22:02] and be a good candidate,
[00:22:05] but also what candidate the Democrats
[00:22:08] need. I disagree with Tatiana, I don't think
[00:22:10] that populism is the solution, I
[00:22:14] was one of the first to criticize during that
[00:22:18] political rally of the president
[00:22:20] in Dallas when he promised $5. It seems to me that a $500 solution
[00:22:24] is a crazy thing, I don't, I don't
[00:22:27] believe in populism, I don't believe in
[00:22:30] handouts in exchange for something specific. Mandani
[00:22:33] has very clearly made enormous promises that end up
[00:22:36] sacrificing the economy, free
[00:22:40] markets. I find rent control and all those kinds of things he
[00:22:43] promises terrible, which in the end in the long run and over time generate
[00:22:47] more poverty, and the
[00:22:50] president, well, I think he has made those mistakes. I think he doesn't
[00:22:54] need, neither this administration nor the Republicans
[00:22:57] need those kinds
[00:23:00] of promises, simply finding the right
[00:23:04] public policy, they already did it with tax reform
[00:23:07] to continue improving the economy. You see, in
[00:23:11] terms of immigration, well, it has also affected him in many
[00:23:15] areas and districts, like here in Miami-Dade County, but if you look at the general vote, they
[00:23:18] continue to support him in relation to border
[00:23:21] security, so see
[00:23:24] exactly what is failing and improve it. César,
[00:23:30] Mandani represents is not populism, it is
[00:23:35] the people who live in New York, and of course understanding that
[00:23:39] reality implies that the biggest challenge people face
[00:23:42] is the cost of living, far from populism being the solution, in his
[00:23:46] opinion, Mandani's solution is the
[00:23:48] correct one. Regardless of whether it is correct
[00:23:52] or incorrect, it is a real understanding of what the priorities
[00:23:56] of a citizenry are, and of course to
[00:23:59] this we must add that Trump's promise, let's remember, was
[00:24:03] to reduce costs, it was to guarantee a life that was
[00:24:07] much more affordable for
[00:24:09] Americans, and the question I would ask César is whether he has
[00:24:13] achieved it or not, and I think he has not achieved it, and precisely
[00:24:17] for that reason his level of economic management, his disapproval level is as high
[00:24:21] as what we just saw. I think that political decisions, sometimes the menu of
[00:24:25] political decisions that a politician has to have, also
[00:24:28] based on timing, I think the timing of the Iran issue, and I disagree with Juan Carlos on
[00:24:32] this, I believe that Iran is indeed a global threat, and beyond whether they declare
[00:24:35] war directly or not on the United States, they have done so through
[00:24:39] other proxies, but beyond
[00:24:42] that, I don't think this year was the moment or the timing for the Iran issue, and I think
[00:24:46] that has taken its toll in terms of gasoline. But the solution
[00:24:49] is never, in my opinion, economic
[00:24:53] populism, never, never, never. Well,
[00:24:56] there's an issue here, we have to go to the break. I wasn't talking about Iran, I know it's
[00:25:00] Hidalgo, but it's interesting, Trump calls
[00:25:03] Mamdani "my little communist," they have a relationship that surprises many
[00:25:07] because they get along very well, but Mandani's popularity, as
[00:25:11] Tatiana highlights, is much higher than Trump's. He has
[00:25:15] defied this whole debate about
[00:25:19] whether Democrats are socialists in the United States and whether they have
[00:25:23] a place or not. We'll talk about this when we return from the break. We're in
[00:25:26] "Clash of Opinion."
[00:25:29] Our obligation as journalists is to tell things as
[00:25:33] they are and not necessarily as they want us to
[00:25:35] tell them.
[00:25:38] We want to have great minds talking about the
[00:25:41] most important issues that affect our countries and
[00:25:45] us as people.
[00:25:48] I have a responsibility to tell the truth, to be truthful, not to
[00:25:52] be neutral, they are very different things. Oppenheimer.
[00:25:55] presents on Sunday on
[00:25:58] CNN,
[00:26:00] I am Mexican-British and I have been practicing
[00:26:04] journalism for 20 years in Mexico City, in the United
[00:26:07] States, and now in Miami for CNN. CNN
[00:26:11] América is a multi-platform program where you will
[00:26:15] get information from all areas that will allow you
[00:26:18] to understand the world from the angle you are viewing it. In
[00:26:22] those 3 hours, you will not only have information from a
[00:26:25] political and economic perspective, but also
[00:26:29] health from a women's perspective, but above all. It is a
[00:26:33] space where we can have conversations not to
[00:26:36] polarize, but to integrate society.
[00:26:41] What excites me the most is to inform,
[00:26:43] inquire, investigate the why of things, get to the bottom
[00:26:47] of the facts, here you will see what makes news and everything that
[00:26:51] impacts your daily life. CNN América with Rebecca
[00:26:54] Kelly, Monday to Friday on
[00:26:56] CNN.
[00:27:31] The need to migrate knows no age, many
[00:27:34] say they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek
[00:27:38] to go further
[00:27:39] north.
[00:27:42] The anti-drone battalion of the Mexican army consists of
[00:27:46] this type of element of inhibitors to bring down drones
[00:27:49] that have become a threat. The
[00:27:52] authorities of Chiapas have detected a cattle smuggling
[00:27:56] point. This is one of the illegal crossing
[00:27:59] points for cattle going from Central America
[00:28:03] to Mexico. Thousands of protesters, workers of this
[00:28:08] Independencia. I am in
[00:28:12] the municipality of Teuchitlán in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Here
[00:28:15] the discovery was macabre by groups of people
[00:28:19] searching for the disappeared. What
[00:28:22] made you come here with the suspicion that your son could be on this
[00:28:26] ranch?
[00:29:31] In an instant. The conversation continues one month before the midterm
[00:29:35] elections in the United States and a panorama that, at least on paper,
[00:29:38] favors the
[00:29:39] Democrats.
[00:29:43] Live from Mexico
[00:29:45] City.
[00:29:47] A story can change everything. A look at the
[00:29:51] reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people
[00:29:55] determined to rise, evolved very quickly, and we never
[00:29:58] thought it would reach a category five. And to understand what
[00:30:02] is. We go with my colleague Ione Molinares to
[00:30:06] Washington,
[00:30:08] the explosion, well, we can see the dimension it had to take down the entire facade.
[00:30:12] We hear the protagonists, they
[00:30:15] mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43, where
[00:30:19] she lived, a bomb fell, we are about to board this
[00:30:23] Mexican air force plane bound for Romania to
[00:30:26] get a complete view, we are here as
[00:30:29] migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great
[00:30:33] stories to know and many perspectives to analyze.
[00:30:36] Perspectives with Mario González, Monday to
[00:30:39] Friday on CNN.