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[00:00:00] to our colleagues in Atlanta and Mexico City, we thank you for
[00:00:03] your company. We'll see you on Monday on Direct USA and next Sunday
[00:00:06] again here on Clash of Opinions on CNN. See you later,
[00:00:22] we are CNN, the world leader in
[00:00:25] news.
[00:00:39] Hello, good evening, welcome to Conclusiones, I'm Mario
[00:00:42] González, this time for my colleague Fernando del Rincón, and
[00:00:45] we begin amidst judicial controversies over the
[00:00:49] presidential election, Brazil enters the final stretch of
[00:00:52] this process. The frontrunners are President Luis
[00:00:56] Ignacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.
[00:01:00] Almost 159 million are called to the polls this
[00:01:03] Sunday.
[00:01:06] The Legislative Assembly of Bolivia discussed what to do after the
[00:01:09] controversial detention of prosecutor general Roger
[00:01:12] Mariaca and amidst pressures from
[00:01:15] the executive.
[00:01:18] After the deadly, simultaneous earthquakes of
[00:01:21] June, several Venezuelans are seeking the so-called American dream in a new migrant
[00:01:25] caravan advancing through southern
[00:01:27] Mexico.
[00:01:30] Venezuelan human rights activist Rocío San Miguel is acquitted,
[00:01:33] she was released from prison a few days after the capture of Nicolás Maduro,
[00:01:37] she had been accused of an alleged plot against the then
[00:02:17] this Sunday, October 4, almost 159 million Brazilians
[00:02:21] of 25% on part of are called to the polls to elect president, governors,
[00:02:24] federal and state deputies, and two-thirds of the Senate. The
[00:02:28] elections take place in a framework. of a judiciary facing
[00:02:31] accusations of politicization and that
[00:02:35] yesterday moved new pieces on the eve of the last presidential
[00:02:38] debate that led, according to the organizing network TV Globo,
[00:02:42] to its cancellation, this after two decisions taken by
[00:02:45] magistrates of higher courts, the first was from magistrate
[00:02:49] Estela Arana in which she prohibited showing
[00:02:53] the lectern that would be left empty by Luis Ignacio Lula
[00:02:56] da Silva who had decided not to participate and in view of this
[00:02:59] resolution. Flavio Bolsonaro announced that he would also
[00:03:02] not attend the debate. The second resolution, the
[00:03:06] dean of the Supreme Court, Gilmar
[00:03:09] Méndez, determined that the
[00:03:12] participation of the candidate of Mission, Renan Santos,
[00:03:16] despite the party not meeting
[00:03:19] than the legal requirements to be invited, and after these decisions Globo cancelled the debate and
[00:03:23] Brazilians were left without the possibility of evaluating the candidates for
[00:03:27] the last time before the Sunday vote.
[00:03:31] In the first round, Lula da Silva is ahead in the
[00:03:33] polls. The Nexus polls commissioned
[00:03:37] by Banco BTG Pactual show a
[00:03:40] effectively before favorable difference for the president. Lula reaches
[00:03:43] 42% of the voting intention, while Bolsonaro
[00:03:47] reaches 37, 37%. For its
[00:03:50] part, the consulting firm Quist published this
[00:03:54] Monday a new result that shows a similar difference
[00:03:58] between Lula's voting intention against. 9% and Bolsonaro with
[00:04:02] 34%, practically the same distance. In both
[00:04:05] polls, the margin of error is two percentage
[00:04:07] points.
[00:04:10] Lula no longer brings me the same security as he did in his first terms,
[00:04:14] so that's why today I'm choosing Flavio, because today he gives me a little more
[00:04:18] security about doing something different,
[00:04:21] so that's my choice. No, it doesn't mean
[00:04:24] it's better, but today he gives better security than Lula. Bolsonaro was
[00:04:28] a... he was a... We who work under the
[00:04:32] CLT, we lost a lot, but Lula
[00:04:35] helped a lot, but Brazil's problem, everyone
[00:04:39] knows, is taxes,
[00:04:42] taxes are very high, why do we have to improve, even Lula
[00:04:45] I'm not saying this because I'm a member of the Workers' Party, but it's to
[00:04:48] lower taxes,
[00:04:52] let's remember that if no candidate exceeds 50% of the votes, something
[00:04:56] that seems will be a reality, there will be a second electoral round on October
[00:05:00] different moment in 25, there the scenario is more complicated, that could be
[00:05:03] that more difficult scenario for Lula because most
[00:05:07] of the candidates who would be left out are right-wing
[00:05:11] and there is no strong left-wing candidate who can support Lula da Silva as
[00:05:14] happened in 2022, which is why
[00:05:17] the polls point to a closer second round, in that
[00:05:19] scenario, according to the Nexus poll,
[00:05:23] a five-point difference shrinks to just two,
[00:05:27] two percentage points, with 46% for Lula and
[00:05:30] 44% of the voting intention for Bolsonaro, let's remember that the
[00:05:34] margin of error is 2%, while
[00:05:37] for the Aquaest consulting firm the difference disappears in an
[00:05:40] eventual second round. already a tie, 42 points for
[00:05:44] each candidate. Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive
[00:05:48] term. Bolsonaro has said that he wants
[00:05:51] to continue the legacy of his father, former president Jair
[00:05:54] Bolsonaro, although they have the same objective to win the presidency of
[00:05:58] Brazil, their visions for the future are very different,
[00:06:01] polarizing. Alessandra Freitas tells
[00:06:04] us.
[00:06:07] Corruption scandals, family dramas, and polarization
[00:06:11] mark the turbulent presidential campaign in Brazil. On
[00:06:14] October 4, millions of Brazilians vote in the first
[00:06:17] round. The dispute is once again marked by two well-known
[00:06:21] surnames. President Luis Ignacio Lula da
[00:06:24] Silva, 80 years old, seeks a fourth term
[00:06:28] and faces Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, eldest son of former
[00:06:31] president Jair Bolsonaro. Lula
[00:06:34] defeated Bolsonaro in 2022, after
[00:06:38] having been imprisoned. Now it is Jair who has been sentenced
[00:06:42] to more than 27 years of prison for an attempt to
[00:06:45] reverse that defeat through a coup and
[00:06:49] to serve house arrest for humanitarian reasons.
[00:06:53] Within Brazil, economy, cost of living, public
[00:06:57] security, and organized crime dominate the
[00:06:59] campaign, but the geopolitical dimension is also
[00:07:03] especially present. Lula da Silva and Flavio
[00:07:06] Bolsonaro represent very different visions for Brazil.
[00:07:10] This country maintains a complicated relationship
[00:07:12] with the United States and deals with tariffs since last
[00:07:16] year. In 2025, Trump imposed tariffs of up to
[00:07:20] 50% on Brazilian imports and
[00:07:23] linked the measure to the process against Jair Bolsonaro, which
[00:07:27] he called a witch hunt. This year,
[00:07:30] Washington imposed a new tariff
[00:07:34] Brazilian exports, for trade
[00:07:37] practices it considers unfair. Flavio traveled to
[00:07:40] Washington to ask for the new tariff to be postponed until after the
[00:07:44] elections, arguing that it could politically
[00:07:47] benefit Lula. The Brazilian president accuses his
[00:07:51] main contender of defending his own interests above
[00:07:54] national ones, and turned Brazilian sovereignty into
[00:07:58] a campaign issue. When I asked Flavio if he wanted
[00:08:02] to postpone tariffs or eliminate them, he backed
[00:08:05] down.
[00:08:09] While Flavio Bolsonaro draws close to Trump and other right-wing leaders
[00:08:13] in the region, Lula da Silva advocates a multipolar
[00:08:15] foreign policy, deepening ties
[00:08:19] with China and the BRICS bloc of emerging countries. Between
[00:08:23] January and August, China received about 31% of Brazilian
[00:08:27] exports, the United States, less than
[00:08:30] 10%. Before the UN, Lula again warned against foreign
[00:08:33] interference in the Brazilian
[00:08:36] elections. Brazil does not
[00:08:39] fit in anyone's backyard. This
[00:08:42] country is the next big chapter in a year of
[00:08:45] extremely polarized and reunited elections in
[00:08:48] Latin America. In Colombia and Peru, right-wing candidates won,
[00:08:52] adding to the region's political shift. Now, with Lula and
[00:08:56] Flavio tied in the polls, in the face of a probable
[00:08:59] second round, the world watches what direction
[00:09:02] Brazil will take. Alessandra Freitas,
[00:09:05] CNN.
[00:09:08] Giant of South America, what direction will Brazilians choose? What
[00:09:12] issues will mark the decision? We will analyze it with my guest tonight,
[00:09:15] noche,
[00:09:32] practically, a real train crash is looming
[00:09:36] with a reserved forecast, as we have just seen,
[00:09:39] Fernando.
[00:09:42] Look, we have a first round that is already
[00:09:45] very, it is very disputed, which will take place on
[00:09:48] Sunday, with a climate of
[00:09:52] much polarization, as Alessandra Freds
[00:09:55] highlighted very well in her
[00:09:57] introduction, uh, and we have a
[00:10:00] situation in which,
[00:10:03] uh, there is
[00:10:07] a lot, especially the ruling party,
[00:10:11] talking a lot about foreign interference in the
[00:10:14] elections, that issue uh, is already being raised,
[00:10:17] there were interventions by the judiciary
[00:10:20] yesterday, for example in the
[00:10:24] debate of that didn't happen
[00:10:28] and we are in a situation where
[00:10:32] the judiciary here in Brazil is very empowered and
[00:10:35] is dictating the rules of the
[00:10:38] elections as never happened
[00:10:42] before, and I say dictating the rules is extrapolating
[00:10:45] these rules, so
[00:10:49] uh, I see that we can have everything in that
[00:10:52] from a decision, for example,
[00:10:55] for example
[00:10:57] uh, after the second round where a diploma
[00:11:00] is suspended, because there are also
[00:11:03] ministers of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil who are
[00:11:07] literally in survival mode, who
[00:11:10] know that if Flavio
[00:11:13] Bolsonaro wins the elections they will hardly
[00:11:17] survive
[00:11:19] uh in the
[00:11:21] court.
[00:11:26] Now, what you mention about this, which we also
[00:11:29] outlined a bit before uh the judiciary,
[00:11:33] in case the process is judicialized,
[00:11:36] there are great risks and there are great
[00:11:39] possibilities that the issue will be judicialized, a
[00:11:43] second electoral round, small margins of distance,
[00:11:46] generally this ends up in the
[00:11:48] courts,
[00:11:50] yes, but I don't think
[00:11:54] the same thing will happen, the same type of
[00:11:57] allegation that occurred in 2022 when the
[00:12:01] integrity of the electoral system and the security of electronic
[00:12:05] voting machines were questioned, I believe
[00:12:08] that today it is more clearly perceived
[00:12:11] that uh the environment of this
[00:12:15] debate, of the electoral debate, will
[00:12:20] of foreign interference,
[00:12:22] uh, and that. I say
[00:12:25] because I clearly see the
[00:12:28] movement of the incumbent party, the ruling
[00:12:31] party, the workers' party, moving
[00:12:35] in that direction, they have already even
[00:12:38] uh uh
[00:12:41] filed lawsuits
[00:12:44] uh in the superior electoral court and also took
[00:12:47] the issue to the supreme federal court
[00:12:50] talking precisely about this issue of
[00:12:53] foreign interference. So I think that it can be
[00:12:56] there uh especially at a time when it is said
[00:13:00] that there are ministers who are
[00:13:03] playing the game of ministers of the supreme federal court who are playing the
[00:13:07] game of the government
[00:13:11] this raises a worrying scenario that
[00:13:14] I hope does not
[00:13:16] happen
[00:13:21] this that you mention about foreign interference, well we have seen it in
[00:13:24] many. many in many elections, the most recent ones in Latin
[00:13:27] America, uh, how much can this
[00:13:30] trend influence, especially in Latin America, but
[00:13:33] worldwide, uh, do you think it can be clearly
[00:13:36] perceived in this electoral process, how much does
[00:13:40] the Donald Trump factor weigh here,
[00:13:43] for example,
[00:13:46] I see that this is being explored from a political
[00:13:49] point of view, but that is a concern
[00:13:53] more uh. from an internal point
[00:13:56] of view, I say that I don't believe there is
[00:13:59] really clear interference,
[00:14:02] there are sympathies from Trump
[00:14:06] uh and today for example the
[00:14:09] US embassy in Brasília
[00:14:13] issued a security alert, it was
[00:14:15] closed to the public
[00:14:19] and released
[00:14:22] a note talking about
[00:14:26] uh that the US diplomatic
[00:14:30] representation was closed for security reasons, so that fuels
[00:14:34] this uncertainty, this
[00:14:38] climate that talks about foreign
[00:14:41] interference, but I don't think that's real, I think that's
[00:14:45] being politically exploited for
[00:14:49] the case of a defeat of the ruling
[00:14:52] party.
[00:15:17] Cooper, CNN's best journalists
[00:15:21] documented stories. use apple. If I was to take
[00:15:40] The full story with Anderson Cooper, tonight on
[00:15:44] CNN. Live
[00:15:51] change everything, a look at the reconstruction efforts of a
[00:15:55] city and the hope of a people committed to rising. It evolved
[00:15:59] very quickly and we never thought it would become a category
[00:16:02] 5. And to understand what is happening. Let's
[00:16:06] go with my colleague.
[00:16:10] to Washington, the explosion, well we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire
[00:16:14] facade, we listen to the protagonists,
[00:16:18] they made fun of us as mothers and fathers of the
[00:16:21] 43, where she lived a bomb fell, we are about to
[00:16:24] board this Mexican air force plane bound for
[00:16:28] Romania to have a complete vision, we are here
[00:16:31] as migrants to progress, to make this country grow, there are great
[00:16:35] stories to know and many. Perspectives to analyze
[00:16:39] Perspectives with Mario González from Monday to Friday
[00:16:42] on CNN.
[00:18:35] Brazil has a lot at stake in this. of the electoral process on Sunday, two completely
[00:18:39] different visions, the Latin American region must also be
[00:18:43] very attentive because it also implies maintaining that
[00:18:46] distance of Lula da Silva and his administration from the United States, for
[00:18:49] example, or marking a completely
[00:19:00] Electoral Court, uh, at what point does this come
[00:19:03] yesterday, this decision to finally suspend the television station?
[00:19:07] The political debate has been widely commented on,
[00:19:11] there is uncertainty about the role that the electoral court may play
[00:19:14] in this electoral process, Fernando, is there, let's say, a
[00:19:18] risk?
[00:19:21] Yes, I believe that risk exists
[00:19:23] clearly, and I would say that we are not even
[00:19:27] talking about the Superior Electoral Court, because the Superior
[00:19:30] Electoral Court for the first time since the
[00:19:34] re-democratization of Brazil
[00:19:37] Uh, it is completely
[00:19:40] annulled by the Supreme Federal
[00:19:43] Court, always in the elections in
[00:19:46] Brazil, the Superior Electoral Court that
[00:19:49] dictated the decisions and
[00:19:53] those decisions were always respected,
[00:19:57] but this time the Supreme Federal Court
[00:20:01] is commanding
[00:20:03] the electoral game.
[00:20:07] So, uh, decisions are made
[00:20:11] by individual ministers of
[00:20:15] the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil
[00:20:17] and sometimes
[00:20:21] correcting decisions of the Superior
[00:20:24] Electoral Court, a
[00:20:27] situation that was not seen in
[00:20:31] past elections and
[00:20:34] that is why I say that
[00:20:37] there is a situation where a single minister can make
[00:20:41] a decision that changes uh that
[00:20:45] causes a result that
[00:20:47] interferes with the result in the. and the electoral process
[00:20:51] as it was yesterday, yesterday that debate was not held
[00:20:55] basically due to a decision by
[00:20:59] a minister of the superior electoral court
[00:21:02] who was an advisor to President
[00:21:05] Lula uh, that is also another
[00:21:09] problem we have with the
[00:21:11] appointment of ministers
[00:21:14] who are who have
[00:21:18] strong political content, a political
[00:21:22] bias and that clearly
[00:21:25] shows how much that is harming the
[00:21:28] electoral
[00:21:29] process,
[00:21:34] we reviewed some polls a moment ago, a technical tie
[00:21:38] practically, uh, with a very high possibility of
[00:21:41] a second round between these two Brazilian politicians,
[00:21:45] do you think the decision has already been made
[00:21:49] by the majority? by the Brazilians or is there still a good
[00:21:52] margin of indecision that will be announced next
[00:21:56] Sunday? I see
[00:21:59] that we will have yes a second
[00:22:03] round that will take place three weeks later on
[00:22:06] October 25, today only
[00:22:09] 10% of the votes are for
[00:22:13] candidates who are not Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro
[00:22:16] so
[00:22:19] practically. impossible for any of these two
[00:22:21] candidates to reach 50% with one more
[00:22:25] vote, so we will have a second now, in case of a
[00:22:28] second round, these 10% of
[00:22:32] votes that are with other candidates are
[00:22:36] mostly votes
[00:22:38] uh of voters
[00:22:42] who are more aligned with the political
[00:22:45] spectrum of the right, of the right, so
[00:22:49] I think that... that at least two-thirds of those votes
[00:22:53] polling institutes
[00:22:57] should migrate to the
[00:23:00] candidate Flavio Bolsonaro in a scenario that today
[00:23:04] is uh basically impacted
[00:23:08] it can cause the voting
[00:23:10] intention of Flavio Bolsonaro to grow, I would
[00:23:14] say that uh
[00:23:16] today Flavio Bolsonaro has better. better
[00:23:20] conditions to eventually win these
[00:23:23] elections, of course the government has instruments
[00:23:26] to manage and to seek to
[00:23:30] reverse this game also, we are at a time
[00:23:33] in Brazil when not 24 hours pass
[00:23:37] without a new corruption
[00:23:39] scandal emerging, the biggest financial
[00:23:43] fraud in the country's history is happening now, master
[00:23:47] bank and every day it arises:
[00:24:18] politics is practically immediate, right? It is distributed through social networks, all these types go
[00:24:22] viral and have effects, we have already seen it, they have very important
[00:24:25] electoral effects, from here the second round would be on October 25 and
[00:24:29] many things can happen, as you also say, how coalitions
[00:24:33] could be configured, it seems that the right would have more power in any
[00:24:36] case, now there are two already known, already tested models, there is
[00:24:40] nothing new under the sun, let's say so, this
[00:24:44] calls attention, it has not happened as in other Latin American countries where a new one is being
[00:24:47] tested, here the cards are on the table,
[00:24:51] Fernando, exactly, that is an important
[00:24:55] point uh, the
[00:24:57] strangest thing in this election is that
[00:25:01] we have known candidates, there are
[00:25:04] distinct visions, but totally known
[00:25:08] by the electorate,
[00:25:12] and the most interesting thing is that both one and
[00:25:15] the other candidate have strong rejection, Lula
[00:25:19] a little more. but uh
[00:25:23] it's a lot when the voter is asked if they had
[00:25:26] another option, a third way that
[00:25:30] was electorally viable, of course,
[00:25:33] uh, more than 50% of the electorate
[00:25:36] said that yes, both for one and
[00:25:40] for the other, for the voter who identifies more with one or
[00:25:44] the other candidate, so it is a
[00:25:47] very, very
[00:25:50] Brazilian
[00:25:52] politics.
[00:25:57] Now, I mentioned to you a while ago the Donald Trump effect, Donald Trump has
[00:26:01] been mentioned. on many occasions,
[00:26:04] uh, due to his friendship with Jair Bolsonaro, he has even
[00:26:08] intervened for his release with the
[00:26:11] administration of Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, however, very
[00:26:15] recently we have not seen what has happened with
[00:26:18] other countries where prior to the elections he sends a message, well,
[00:26:22] this could also happen in the coming
[00:26:24] hours.
[00:26:27] I think it is already happening in some way
[00:26:30] because, for example.
[00:27:02] more useful as you are saying, but quite
[00:27:05] visible, uh, let's see, it's good, uh, well obviously the
[00:27:09] influence that Brazil has for Latin America and this debate
[00:27:13] that exists, Fernando, or these tendencies to approach
[00:27:16] Washington with the pressure that Washington is exerting, of course, through
[00:27:20] various commercial mechanisms, uh, security
[00:27:23] policy also where drug trafficking also becomes
[00:27:26] a very powerful tool to
[00:27:30] uh well, to approach uh towards. Latin America to be
[00:27:33] present, uh or maintaining that uh
[00:27:37] healthy distance where uh
[00:27:41] well Brazil is also uh with an
[00:27:43] open market in Europe with China
[00:27:47] uh all that is at
[00:27:48] stake yes, yes, I think
[00:27:52] there is a geopolitical chessboard that
[00:27:56] and that Brazil plays a very, very
[00:27:59] important role, Brazil got very close
[00:28:02] to China, that's a fact
[00:28:06] uh uh Washington views this with
[00:28:08] concern obviously for
[00:28:11] losing influence in Latin America, right, and
[00:28:15] especially
[00:28:16] Brazil but I see
[00:28:19] that
[00:28:21] uh Lula also uh was very
[00:28:25] close to uh totalitarian
[00:28:28] governments supported for
[00:28:32] example Nicolás Maduro
[00:28:35] uh the role that Brazil played
[00:28:38] in uh weak in terms of the elections in
[00:28:42] Venezuela uh that could have
[00:28:46] exercised better its regional
[00:28:49] leadership and it didn't he did, so I think that
[00:28:53] helped to wear down the relationship with
[00:28:56] the United States and Trump
[00:29:00] obviously saw. in
[00:29:03] that a space of fragility
[00:29:06] to also impose his his
[00:29:10] doctrine and I believe that
[00:29:13] if Lula wins the elections, there
[00:29:16] will be
[00:29:19] a little bit more of a distancing
[00:29:22] already exists today, although Lula
[00:29:25] is a pragmatic man, he knows that
[00:29:29] it's necessary to try to
[00:29:32] reconstruct this relationship that is
[00:29:36] quite worn out today, but I think it won't be
[00:29:39] possible to reconstruct it
[00:29:43] the mandate of Donald
[00:29:46] Trump. We have to wait for
[00:29:49] a Democrat in the United
[00:29:52] States to try to improve
[00:29:56] this relationship.
[00:30:19] to conclusions, Venezuelans affected by the earthquakes in a
[00:30:22] migrant caravan that seeks to cross Mexico to the United
[00:30:25] States.
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