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[00:00:39] We are CNN, the world leader in
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[00:02:10] this is not as immediate
[00:02:12] Hello, how are you? I'm Andrés Oppenheimer. What impact will the
[00:02:16] presidential elections in Brazil have on Latin America? What could
[00:02:19] change if the largest country in the region takes a drastic
[00:02:22] turn to the right? The victory of the right-wing candidate
[00:02:26] Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round on October 4 surprised
[00:02:30] many because almost all the polls favored
[00:02:33] the current left-wing president, Luis Inácio
[00:02:36] Lula da Silva. Now the two will face each other in a second
[00:02:40] round on October 25, and Bolsonaro
[00:02:43] can win. He has in his favor the propaganda
[00:02:46] boost that winning the first round gives him,
[00:02:50] and he also has in his favor the fact that
[00:02:53] of the world and conception of several of the candidates who were eliminated in the first
[00:02:55] round were from the center-right or right, and their
[00:02:59] followers
[00:03:01] government, it's not that it's not the could vote for Bolsonaro now in the second round. Flavio Bolsonaro, of
[00:03:05] course, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to
[00:03:09] 27 years in prison and is under house arrest for having
[00:03:13] instigated a coup after losing the 2022 elections,
[00:03:16] something he denies. So, returning to the current candidate, if
[00:03:20] Flavio Bolsonaro wins in the second round, the rightward
[00:03:23] turn in Latin America would extend. Right-wing
[00:03:26] and center-right candidates won the last seven
[00:03:30] presidential elections in the region, all
[00:03:34] seven, and now there are right-wing governments in Argentina,
[00:03:37] Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Honduras, and several other
[00:03:41] countries. If Bolsonaro wins in Brazil, the largest
[00:03:44] country in the region would join him. The political map of democracies in
[00:03:48] Latin America, of course, with very few exceptions, such as Mexico,
[00:03:52] Uruguay, would be almost entirely covered by right-wing
[00:03:55] or center-right governments. But what impact
[00:03:59] would all that have? It would have
[00:04:02] been removed a combined impact, a formidable political bloc would form,
[00:04:04] allied with the United States, capable of advancing economic integration
[00:04:08] and the fight against drug cartels, or
[00:04:11] would the personal egos of presidents
[00:04:15] and nationalist rivalries
[00:04:17] win? Today we will analyze all
[00:04:21] this with several renowned
[00:04:24] Trump's strategy in political analysts from Washington and Sao Paulo. We will start with the Brazilian political scientist
[00:04:28] Sergio Fausto, director of the Fernando
[00:04:31] Enrique Cardozo Foundation in São
[00:04:34] him. Sergio, thank you for being with us. Well, first
[00:04:37] of all, do you agree with the analysts who
[00:04:41] say that Bolsonaro is very likely to win in the second round? That is,
[00:04:45] what are the chances that Lula will turn things
[00:04:48] around and end up winning in the second round?
[00:04:51] Well, it's not impossible, but it's very
[00:04:54] difficult. There has never been a
[00:04:57] change from the first to the second round since we
[00:05:00] returned to democracy, since a system with two
[00:05:04] rounds was implemented. So, it would be completely
[00:05:07] unprecedented. It should be noted that it is
[00:05:10] the tightest margin ever
[00:05:14] in Brazil, but having said
[00:05:17] that, when
[00:05:21] the elections to Congress, to the
[00:05:24] state governments, we say here, of the
[00:05:27] provinces, it is a wave
[00:05:30] to the right, no, it is a clear
[00:05:33] sign of a favorable atmosphere
[00:05:36] for Flavio, that is, it is very likely that the future president
[00:05:40] of Brazil will be Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of the
[00:05:44] former president Bolsonaro, who is under house
[00:05:47] arrest. Here in Brazil there are many parties, that is,
[00:05:51] Bolsonaro's party obtained about
[00:05:55] 35% of the Senate and
[00:05:58] 24% of the seats in the Lower
[00:06:02] House, which is a record in the last 40
[00:06:05] years for a single party to have obtained so many
[00:06:09] seats. But when one takes, uh,
[00:06:12] the set of parties that are in the
[00:06:16] right-wing camp, so to speak,
[00:06:19] what one sees is a clear majority
[00:06:22] of the right in both the
[00:06:25] Senate and the Lower House. What would have to happen for
[00:06:28] Lula to reverse the situation and win?
[00:06:32] Well, he would have to
[00:06:35] win, well, the difference is very narrow, it's
[00:06:38] 2,300
[00:06:41] votes, which means in percentage terms, two
[00:06:44] percentage points, it's little, it seems little,
[00:06:48] no, but what was left of
[00:06:51] votes on the table, so to speak,
[00:06:55] were votes given to candidates who are in the
[00:06:58] right-wing camp, so it is to be expected
[00:07:02] that most of these votes will migrate towards Flavio and
[00:07:05] not towards Lula, a little towards Lula,
[00:07:09] but the largest part towards Flavio.
[00:07:12] two candidates have already declared that they will officially support
[00:07:16] Flag. Lula could seek, uh,
[00:07:20] votes from people who abstained, 20 and
[00:07:23] something percent of the electoral roll did not
[00:07:26] go to the polls,
[00:07:30] uh,
[00:07:32] but it is not likely that this will happen because it is
[00:07:36] more or less a very crystallized number, 20%
[00:07:40] abstention.
[00:07:42] to show himself as a more moderate candidate than his
[00:07:45] father, is that true? Is he more moderate or is
[00:07:49] it a campaign image
[00:07:51] invented by his electoral strategists? Let's
[00:07:54] see, in terms of his manners, he's a
[00:07:58] more moderate guy, no.
[00:08:02] In terms of his conception
[00:08:05] politics, I don't think he's more moderate. This
[00:08:09] doesn't mean that he will
[00:08:13] have a government like his father's. I have to be
[00:08:16] a little cautious about making
[00:08:20] categorical predictions
[00:08:23] saying a far right government
[00:08:27] is coming. I would be a little
[00:08:29] more, as I said, wait a little
[00:08:33] to see how the process unfolds, no,
[00:08:36] because there was a turn to the right, even more to the
[00:08:40] right, because the turn to the right in the country began
[00:08:44] in 2018, no, now even more,
[00:08:47] but it is a right that has nuances, no, even within
[00:08:51] Bolsonaro's party. Sergio, if Flavio
[00:08:54] Bolsonaro wins, what would change in Brazil's foreign policy? Would it be an
[00:08:58] unconditional ally of Trump or
[00:09:01] not so much?
[00:09:03] I don't see it that way. It would be an ally of Trump, for sure, no,
[00:09:07] but Brazil, uh,
[00:09:10] cannot,
[00:09:14] yes, it needs China's support, because
[00:09:17] it needs to have good relations with China, because the largest
[00:09:21] part of Brazil's exports are to China,
[00:09:24] uh, 30-something
[00:09:27] percent, no, the bulk of exports from the
[00:09:30] agricultural sector and cattle ranching
[00:09:34] from Brazil to China. The United
[00:09:37] States is completely the opposite, more manufactured
[00:09:41] goods in a much smaller proportion, one-third of
[00:09:44] exports to China, so they
[00:09:48] cannot afford to
[00:09:51] lose good relations with China, no. Now,
[00:09:54] on issues like critical minerals, for example, I think that
[00:09:57] there would be a clear tendency
[00:10:00] to use this leverage
[00:10:03] to establish more
[00:10:06] bilateral relations,
[00:10:09] closer with the United
[00:10:11] States, also in terms
[00:10:15] of combating organized crime
[00:10:17] with all the aspects involved.
[00:10:21] Bolsonaro would enter the Shield of the
[00:10:24] Americas, the alliance promoted by Trump, among other things, to
[00:10:27] combat drug trafficking? I think
[00:10:31] it's very probable, I think it's very probable,
[00:10:34] although the Brazilian military
[00:10:38] would, I think, be a little
[00:10:41] reluctant, because they are quite
[00:10:43] nationalist, but I think that, uh,
[00:10:47] Flavio is going down this path. On the issue of
[00:10:50] Venezuela, if Flavio Bolsonaro wins, would he be as critical
[00:10:53] of the Venezuelan regime as his father was, or
[00:10:57] now that Trump met with David Rodríguez and publicly
[00:11:01] praised him, would he approach her? In
[00:11:04] relation to Venezuela, I'm
[00:11:07] whatever Trump
[00:11:10] tells him to do, no, it's that
[00:11:14] simple, no, I don't think Brazil will seek
[00:11:17] a different relationship with Venezuela,
[00:11:21] no, despite the tradition of a bilateral relationship
[00:11:25] between the two countries, which was a relationship that
[00:11:28] had quite a lot of autonomy in relation to
[00:11:32] Washington throughout history, no. But now I think
[00:11:36] it will be different. On the issue of Cuba and Nicaragua, it would be the
[00:11:39] same, it would be the same, I think there would be
[00:11:42] automatic alignment and with much conviction. We have to take a
[00:11:46] break. When we return, we will continue analyzing what concrete impact in Latin America
[00:11:50] the elections on October 25 in
[00:11:53] Brazil could have if Bolsonaro wins. Don't go away, we'll be
[00:12:12] back. Yes, yes, it's clear,
[00:12:14] and it's
[00:12:18] beginning of the program, saying, "Well, assuming that
[00:12:22] uh, this transition occurs," because
[00:12:25] there are a series of questions that you explained very
[00:12:29] well, that is, that from the
[00:12:31] start, saying, "Well, maybe
[00:12:35] as we think." Second, the point of
[00:12:39] transparency, of maintaining transparency, which,
[00:12:43] well, Bernanke put us in the dance,
[00:12:46] who has been tremendously a positive asset and
[00:12:49] a great asset of the institution. And then,
[00:14:13] the need to migrate knows no age. Many
[00:14:17] say they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek
[00:14:20] to go further north.
[00:14:25] The Mexican Army's anti-drone battalion consists of
[00:14:29] these types of jamming devices to bring down drones
[00:14:32] that have become a threat. The
[00:14:35] Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling
[00:14:39] point. This is one of the illegal crossing
[00:14:42] points for cattle going from Central America to
[00:14:46] Mexico. Thousands of demonstrators, workers from this
[00:14:49] country, left at 9:30 in the morning from
[00:14:52] the Angel of Independence. I am in the municipality of
[00:14:55] Teuchitlán in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Here
[00:14:59] the discovery was macabre by groups of people
[00:15:02] searching for missing persons. What
[00:15:05] made you come here with the suspicion that your son might be on this ranch?
[00:15:22] Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing the possible impact
[00:15:26] in Latin America of the presidential elections in
[00:15:29] Brazil. The right-wing candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, surprised everyone
[00:15:33] by winning the first round on October 4, because, well, the polls
[00:15:37] favored the current president, the left-wing president
[00:15:40] Luis Inácio Lula da Silva.
[00:15:43] Bolsonaro, Flavio Bolsonaro, is the son of former President Jair
[00:15:46] Bolsonaro, he was sentenced to
[00:15:49] 27 years in prison and is under house arrest for instigating
[00:15:52] a supposed coup, something that
[00:15:55] Bolsonaro, father and son, deny. And
[00:15:58] now, although there may be surprises, Flavio
[00:16:01] Bolsonaro, the son, the candidate, is the favorite to
[00:16:05] win the second round, because he has in his favor, among other things, that several
[00:16:08] candidates who were left behind, who were
[00:16:11] eliminated in the first round, were from the right or center-right,
[00:16:14] so their followers, many
[00:16:17] of them, will probably support Flavio
[00:16:20] Bolsonaro. We continue from Sao Paulo with political scientist Sergio
[00:16:23] Fausto, director of the Fernando Enrique Cardozo
[00:16:26] Foundation. Let's continue with the interview. Sergio, if
[00:16:29] Bolsonaro wins in the second round, almost all Latin
[00:16:33] American countries, except Mexico, or the large ones, at
[00:16:37] least, except Mexico, will have right-wing or
[00:16:40] center-right governments. Would we see the formation of a
[00:16:44] right-wing bloc to
[00:16:48] the region or not?
[00:16:51] Well, yes, a bloc with many political
[00:16:55] affinities, but with its national peculiarities.
[00:16:58] I would emphasize the fact that integration
[00:17:02] in the strongest sense, production chains
[00:17:06] and even in terms of
[00:17:10] trade, has always been a very difficult
[00:17:14] challenge throughout history.
[00:17:17] I think the fact that there is this political
[00:17:21] synchronicity among the governments of the different
[00:17:24] countries helps, but I would not be
[00:17:30] result in an integration scheme
[00:17:34] like the one achieved in Europe, far from
[00:17:38] it, I think, because many of the current presidents are somewhat
[00:17:41] reluctant to multilateralism. Yes, yes,
[00:17:44] exactly, and they are,
[00:17:48] they emphasize their national
[00:17:51] powers, no, this is also a characteristic of this right,
[00:17:55] which is a right that has a lot
[00:17:58] of distrust in bilateral schemes, it has
[00:18:01] a lot of distrust in the renunciation
[00:18:04] of sovereignty, no, and I think this would be a brake on
[00:18:08] integration in the region. On November 3rd, there are
[00:18:12] midterm legislative and gubernatorial elections in the United
[00:18:15] States. If the Democrats, if the opposition
[00:18:18] wins, wins the House or the Senate or both
[00:18:21] chambers, what would change in the relationship with Brazil? If
[00:18:25] they win the Senate, I think it would be a signal
[00:18:28] and
[00:18:31] what would be the reading, I imagine, of the
[00:18:34] people of the probable future
[00:18:39] time to go for
[00:18:41] everything, because there could be change in the United States,
[00:18:45] it cannot be taken for granted that MAGA and Trump
[00:18:49] will be there all the time throughout the 4 years
[00:18:52] of Flavio's mandate, no. So I think there would be a
[00:18:56] certain attitude their backs,
[00:19:00] uh, but I'm trying to get inside
[00:19:03] their heads, no. Uh,
[00:19:07] I'm sure that Trump
[00:19:10] will try to double down, no. I don't think Trump
[00:19:13] will moderate, on the contrary, he will have incentives to double
[00:19:17] down on foreign policy and in relation to Latin
[00:19:21] America.
[00:19:23] The rational thing in my opinion would be for Flavio Bolsonaro's
[00:19:27] government to react to this stimulus with
[00:19:30] moderation, imagining that this,
[00:19:33] well, a lame duck, a lame
[00:19:36] duck that may have
[00:19:39] from the White House in 2 years' time. Finally, if Bolsonaro
[00:19:43] wins, would it be the end of the São Paulo
[00:19:46] Forum? The São Paulo Forum never had the
[00:19:50] importance that was attributed
[00:19:52] to it by the Latin American right.
[00:19:56] It is a, and now even less,
[00:19:59] even less, no. Look, look, Chavismo is
[00:20:02] over, no. Chavismo's money is over.
[00:20:06] Cuba is looking.
[00:20:09] Nicaragua is a pure and
[00:20:12] simple dictatorship, no, that is,
[00:20:16] uh, I would say it's over by now,
[00:20:19] uh, Petros is no longer
[00:20:22] there. These
[00:20:25] things, you have to have a certain historical
[00:20:29] perspective. These things come and go, no. The
[00:20:32] left suffered, it probably won't be in the
[00:20:35] presidency of Brazil starting next year. But
[00:20:38] when you look at history, uh, this is also
[00:20:42] seen in Colombia, no, uh, De La
[00:20:45] Espriella won but won by a very narrow margin. The
[00:20:48] left is rooted there. I think
[00:20:52] the same will happen in Brazil, with an important
[00:20:55] difference, uh, it will
[00:20:58] be the end of the extraordinary cycle
[00:21:01] of Lula's political leadership, no. What will become of the
[00:21:05] left in general and of the Workers' Party without
[00:21:08] this leadership
[00:21:11] that was capable of uniting different
[00:21:14] factions of the party, no?
[00:21:17] It's a question, we don't have an answer.
[00:21:20] Sergio Fausto, thank you very much for your time. We have to take a break. When we return,
[00:21:24] we will continue analyzing what concrete impact in Latin America a victory
[00:21:28] by Flavio Bolsonaro in the elections of October 25 in
[00:21:31] Brazil could have. Don't go away, we'll be
[00:21:47] back. Yes, yes, it's clear,
[00:21:50] and it's very good that you said it at the beginning of the program, saying, "Well, assuming that
[00:21:54] uh, this transition occurs," because there are a series of
[00:21:57] questions that you explained very well. That is, that's
[00:22:01] the first thing, to say, "Well, maybe this is
[00:22:04] not as immediate as we think." Second, the point of
[00:22:07] transparency, of maintaining transparency, which,
[00:22:10] well, Bernanke put us in motion, who has been
[00:22:13] tremendously a positive asset and a great
[00:22:17] asset for the institution. And then, fundamentally, really the
[00:22:21] structure of a strong
[00:22:24] Fed. That complexity that it has right
[00:22:28] now, regional, is a strength, it's a strength.
[00:26:03] Life was born in the sea, the ocean is the sustenance of our
[00:26:07] life, really the oceans generate
[00:26:11] more oxygen many times than the forests themselves, the
[00:26:14] important thing here in the Amazon is the
[00:26:16] water,
[00:26:20] these trees are going to harvest water, generating
[00:26:23] new rivers, generating
[00:26:26] lakes, this responsibility to take care of this simple
[00:26:29] home is everyone's. We
[00:26:34] live on a beautiful planet, we have to
[00:26:36] keep it alive, from any angle of
[00:26:40] society, everyone has a voice to give and something to
[00:26:43] contribute, no, and all of us are capable of taking small
[00:26:47] actions, we can no longer keep talking, talking, talking, it's time
[00:26:51] to act, put on your superhero suit and start
[00:26:54] doing something
[00:26:55] today.
[00:27:09] The fight on this occasion consists of the administration
[00:27:12] wanting a sharp cut in interest rates to
[00:27:16] boost the economy, but the Fed, which has as one of
[00:27:20] its two mandates price stability, that is, protecting
[00:27:26] that if it does that, if it makes a sharp
[00:27:30] cut, it would trigger inflation
[00:27:34] and a scenario with problems of growth and at the same time
[00:27:37] inflation, that is, what is called
[00:27:39] stagflation. That is precisely what
[00:27:43] Powell's Fed wants to avoid,
[00:27:46] Jerome Powell.
[00:28:05] Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing the possible regional impact of the
[00:28:09] presidential elections of October 25 in Brazil. Right-wing
[00:28:12] candidates won the last seven presidential elections
[00:28:16] in Latin America, and now if the right-wing candidate in Brazil,
[00:28:19] Flavio Bolsonaro, wins in the second round, almost the entire
[00:28:23] region, with very few exceptions such as Mexico and
[00:28:26] Uruguay, would have right-wing governments. Would a
[00:28:29] formidable right-wing bloc form for economic
[00:28:33] integration of the region or would each go their own
[00:28:37] way? We have with us Benjamin Gedan, director of the
[00:28:41] Latin America program at the Wilson Center in Washington,
[00:28:44] former director for Latin America at the White House National
[00:28:47] Security Council, and previously an official at the
[00:28:50] State Department. Let's go with him. Benjamin Gedan, thank you for
[00:28:54] being with us. Benjamin, well, do you agree with the analysts
[00:28:57] who say that Bolsonaro is the favorite to win in Brazil? Yes, I think
[00:29:01] so. Flavio's campaign came out very
[00:29:04] strengthened from the first round. Almost always in
[00:29:07] Brazil, the candidate who wins the first
[00:29:10] round wins the elections. Lula
[00:29:13] is a rather weak candidate.
[00:29:16] It's a moment in Brazil, but in the entire region,
[00:29:20] eh, of anti-establishment forces,
[00:29:24] no, and Lula
[00:29:26] is like a symbol of establishment,
[00:29:30] no. He competed in his
[00:29:33] first presidential election in the
[00:29:36] 80s, no, so,
[00:29:39] at a time when outsiders, opposition
[00:29:43] forces, new candidates
[00:29:45] have strong advantages,
[00:29:49] Lula, well, he will have a
[00:29:53] rather complicated campaign to be able to win,
[00:29:57] uh, we also have the figures from the
[00:30:00] legislative elections, another sample
[00:30:04] of the interest of Brazilian
[00:30:07] voters in having something different and
[00:30:11] conservative forces. What would change in relations between Brazil and
[00:30:14] Washington if Bolsonaro wins? Brazil would become
[00:30:18] an unconditional ally of the United States, not
[00:30:22] so much. It would be extremely important for
[00:30:27] Latin America, because in fact it really
[00:30:30] makes no sense to have a coalition of
[00:30:34] allies without the participation of the largest, most
[00:30:37] powerful country in the region. To date,
[00:30:40] Trump intended to have all the
[00:30:43] alliances he needed to promote his regional
[00:30:47] vision, but without Brazil and without Mexico,
[00:30:51] he really couldn't advance. Are you referring
[00:30:54] to the security sphere, to the Shield of the Americas, or
[00:30:57] beyond that? Well.