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[00:00:02] sign of the interest
[00:00:05] in Brazilian voters
[00:00:08] wanting something different and conservative
[00:00:11] forces. What would change in relations between Brazil and Washington
[00:00:15] if Bolsonaro wins? Brazil would become an
[00:00:19] unconditional ally of the United States,
[00:00:22] not so much. It would be
[00:00:25] extremely important for Trump's strategy in
[00:00:28] Latin America, because in fact. But
[00:00:32] it really doesn't make sense to have a
[00:00:35] coalition of allies without the participation of the largest, most
[00:00:39] powerful country in the region. To date,
[00:00:42] Trump intended to have all the
[00:00:46] alliances he needed to advance his
[00:00:49] regional vision, but without Brazil and without Mexico,
[00:00:52] he really couldn't advance. You're referring to
[00:00:56] the security sphere, the Shield of the Americas, or beyond that. Well,
[00:01:00] from my perspective, Trump has more or less three
[00:01:03] objectives in the region. Obviously,
[00:01:06] he wants to stop the flow of migrants, he wants to compete
[00:01:10] more against China, and he wants
[00:01:13] to fight criminal groups
[00:01:16] in the alliance called the Shield of the Americas.
[00:01:20] Benjamin, what would change in Brazil's
[00:01:23] foreign policy if Bolsonaro wins? That's an
[00:01:28] stop disbursements of important question, right? Because I think there's a not very
[00:01:32] practical expectation in the United States that implies
[00:01:36] that a victory of the conservative
[00:01:39] forces would imply a deep
[00:01:43] alliance and a turn in Brazil's
[00:01:46] foreign policy towards the West. I don't think
[00:01:50] that will happen. What we saw with the experience of his
[00:01:55] first round almost always wins the own father, the famous Trump of the Tropics, is that
[00:01:58] the ties between Brazil and China are
[00:02:01] so deep in geostrategic economic
[00:02:05] terms that it's very difficult
[00:02:08] to change, very difficult to risk
[00:02:12] the economic relationship with China with a dramatic turn
[00:02:16] towards Washington. Do you think that if Bolsonaro wins, a bloc of right-wing countries would form, as the
[00:02:19] left-wing governments tried at one point, or
[00:02:23] are these presidents so reluctant to multilateral organizations
[00:02:26] that they wouldn't do that? I think
[00:02:30] that both in the relationship with Trump and in the relationship
[00:02:33] with Miley, with Santiago Peña in
[00:02:37] Paraguay, what we could
[00:02:39] see would be symbolic acts of
[00:02:43] collaboration, an effort to seek
[00:02:46] synergies in foreign policy,
[00:02:50] but very difficult to actually,
[00:02:54] very difficult to generate deep collaboration
[00:02:58] an experience in itself, the cradle of spaces, right? For example. In the case
[00:03:01] of Chile and Argentina, we have two leaders
[00:03:04] with very similar
[00:03:07] ideological visions, but
[00:03:09] second round that will be nevertheless, there are disputes that have to do with territorial
[00:03:12] conflicts, both in the Malvinas Islands and in the south of
[00:03:16] both countries. This is an example among
[00:03:19] many of the difficulty of
[00:03:23] organizing strategic alliances
[00:03:27] in South America. What impact would a Bolsonaro victory
[00:03:31] have in Mexico? I mean, if the political map of the region is covered by right-wing
[00:03:34] governments, including Brazil, where would that leave
[00:03:38] Mexico? Well, a
[00:03:41] victory for Flavio
[00:03:44] would leave Claudia
[00:03:47] alone in the region, speaking of the
[00:03:50] largest, most influential countries. Having said
[00:03:54] this, Mexico always looks north, not
[00:03:57] south. It has no
[00:04:00] close ties with neighboring countries in Central
[00:04:04] America or with countries
[00:04:07] in South America. That's why I don't think it would be a
[00:04:11] very influential factor in Mexico's foreign policy. It has a
[00:04:14] total dependence on the United States. The
[00:04:17] destination of more than 80% of its
[00:04:21] exports and the relationship in terms of migration
[00:04:24] and security is a relationship with the United
[00:04:27] States. That's why it wouldn't be very comfortable for
[00:04:30] Claudia, but I don't think it would have very dramatic
[00:04:34] effects. What will happen with all these right-wing and center-right
[00:04:37] governments in Latin America if the Democrats in the United States
[00:04:41] regain Congress in the November 3rd elections? What could the
[00:04:45] Democrats do on the issues that matter in
[00:04:48] Latin America? That's a very important issue, right?
[00:04:52] Because what we have today that we haven't had for a long
[00:04:55] time is a hyperpolarized
[00:04:58] environment. Not hyper-
[00:05:01] ideologized. What this implies is that the relationship, for
[00:05:04] example, between Argentina and the United States is not a state-to-state
[00:05:08] relationship, it's a partisan relationship. It's
[00:05:12] a relationship between Miley and Trump, between the
[00:05:16] MAGA world in both places. That's
[00:05:19] why I think there is an important
[00:05:23] possibility that the opposition in the United
[00:05:26] States could take advantage of
[00:05:29] their new power in the House or in the Senate or in both
[00:05:33] chambers to punish, to investigate,
[00:05:36] to make an effort to change the
[00:05:40] intense policy of...
[00:05:50] Argentina, investigating the bombing
[00:05:53] of the boats in the
[00:05:56] Pacific, in the Caribbean, right? Reorganizing,
[00:05:59] taking resources from military
[00:06:02] assistance to Ecuador, for example, to
[00:06:06] Colombia, trying to
[00:06:09] analyze the policy towards Venezuela, the agreement.
[00:06:12] The mega agreement
[00:06:15] in the energy sector, right? But to
[00:06:19] understand better, please explain in more detail what will
[00:06:23] change if the Democrats win the House in the November
[00:06:26] elections. The House has the appropriations
[00:06:30] committee for government funds, meaning it has the
[00:06:33] checkbook to authorize disbursements of funds.
[00:06:37] For example, could the House
[00:06:41] Trump's laws to fund
[00:06:44] ICE, the migration service, the border
[00:06:48] patrol? Could they cut those funds? No, I
[00:06:51] don't think so, not easily, no. What
[00:06:55] Congress has already approved is already
[00:06:57] available to the executive branch. But
[00:07:01] yes, it could stop any legislative
[00:07:05] project with a view to the future, that is,
[00:07:09] they already have enormous
[00:07:12] resources, all security agencies or all
[00:07:16] anti-immigrant efforts. But
[00:07:19] Congress could indeed investigate,
[00:07:23] deny new investments in those
[00:07:26] institutions, and create
[00:07:29] problems, identifying actions by
[00:07:33] Trump that perhaps did not comply with
[00:07:37] local law, international law, agreements,
[00:07:40] treaties with other countries.
[00:07:43] And obviously generating
[00:07:46] greater political costs for
[00:07:49] Trump. We already have a profound change in
[00:07:53] domestic policy regarding the relationship between
[00:07:57] Hispanics and the administration as a
[00:08:00] result, more than anything, of the
[00:08:02] harsh migratory policy. What we
[00:08:06] will see is an even stronger
[00:08:09] debate and a conversation.
[00:10:49] Live from Mexico
[00:10:51] City, a story
[00:10:55] that changed everything. A look at the reconstruction efforts of a
[00:10:59] city and the hope of a people determined to rise up. It evolved
[00:11:02] very quickly, and we never thought it would become a category
[00:11:06] five. And to understand what is happening, let's go
[00:11:09] with my colleague Ione Molinares to Washington.
[00:11:13] The explosion, we can see the dimension it had to take out the entire
[00:11:17] facade. We hear the protagonists, they
[00:11:21] mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43.
[00:11:25] Where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this
[00:11:28] Mexican Air Force plane heading to Romania
[00:11:32] to have a complete vision. We are here as
[00:11:35] migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great
[00:11:38] stories to know and many perspectives to analyze.
[00:11:42] Perspectives with Mario González, Monday to Friday
[00:11:45] on CNN.
[00:11:49] I'm Rafael Romo in Atlanta. We are
[00:11:51] CNN.
[00:11:58] Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing the possible regional
[00:12:01] impact in Latin America of the presidential elections on
[00:12:04] October 25th in Brazil. The right-wing candidate
[00:12:08] Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4th and now
[00:12:11] has good chances of winning the second round on
[00:12:14] October 25th, among other things because in Brazil, the winner of the
[00:12:20] second round. We have with us Anthony Pereira, professor of
[00:12:23] Latin American studies at Tuden University. Let's go
[00:12:27] with him. Professor Pereira, thank you for being with us.
[00:12:31] Well, first of all, do you agree with many forecasts
[00:12:34] that Flavio Bolsonaro has the
[00:12:38] best chances of winning the second round? Yes, I
[00:12:41] would say that Flavio's victory
[00:12:44] is probable,
[00:12:48] but a Lula victory is not
[00:12:50] impossible,
[00:12:52] because the expectation before...
[00:13:04] and the surprise was that it
[00:13:07] was slightly lower. If
[00:13:10] Flavio Bolsonaro wins, what differences would there be between him
[00:13:14] and his father, because he is selling himself in this
[00:13:17] campaign as a more moderate candidate than his
[00:13:20] father, but is that so or is it a campaign
[00:13:22] strategy? I am a bit suspicious of that narrative that Flavio
[00:13:26] is more moderate. Flavio
[00:13:29] once said, "I am the
[00:13:33] vaccinated Bolsonaro,"
[00:13:35] vaccinated.
[00:13:39] But it is very probable
[00:13:42] that sooner or
[00:13:45] later Jair would be
[00:13:48] free. Jair would be released from the
[00:13:52] detention he was suffering now.
[00:14:14] He would have a lot of influence and perhaps also a formal role in the government.
[00:14:17] So the coalition is very
[00:14:21] similar to the government that
[00:14:25] Jair presided over between 2019 and
[00:14:28] 2022.
[00:14:32] Perhaps in some areas, for example, the influence of the
[00:14:36] military, the armed forces
[00:14:39] would be different, because Flavio did not
[00:14:42] serve in the army like his
[00:14:45] father. That could be a difference,
[00:14:49] a difference. Also, Flavio has slightly different
[00:14:52] relationships with the other members of Congress.
[00:14:55] But I don't, I don't, so far, and I may be
[00:14:59] wrong, I don't perceive
[00:15:03] a very big difference between the
[00:15:06] possible governments. How do you imagine Brazil's
[00:15:10] relationship with Washington if Bolsonaro wins? Would it be an unconditional
[00:15:14] alliance with the Trump government or not so much?
[00:15:18] I think not so much, for example, in
[00:15:21] one fundamental thing, economic relations.
[00:15:37] fundamentally shape that relationship. One
[00:15:41] third of exports go to China,
[00:15:44] and China is an important
[00:15:47] source of investment in infrastructure, especially energy
[00:15:51] infrastructure. What would happen with Latin American policy if
[00:15:55] Bolsonaro wins? Would a right-wing
[00:15:57] bloc form to increase
[00:16:01] regional economic integration or not necessarily? I think
[00:16:04] not necessarily. The relations with
[00:16:08] Argentina, I believe that Brazil would be
[00:16:12] closer to Argentina and Miley,
[00:16:16] and perhaps that could soften relations within
[00:16:19] Mercosur. But
[00:16:23] I have no doubt
[00:16:25] that the current right-wing
[00:16:29] presidents, Keiko Fujimori,
[00:16:32] Esperia in Colombia, Na
[00:16:35] Boa, Ecuador, but... Cast in
[00:16:38] Chile, I don't know if they have so many convergences
[00:16:42] and capabilities to
[00:16:46] act together. So for me
[00:16:49] it would be more or less some
[00:16:53] joint initiatives,
[00:16:56] but very far from a complete
[00:17:00] and formal integration.
[00:17:04] Professor Pereira, thank you very much for your time. We have to go to a break. We'll talk about
[00:17:08] my reflection on what could change for Latin America
[00:17:11] if Bolsonaro wins the presidential elections in Brazil. Don't
[00:17:15] go, we'll talk.
[00:17:30] But regardless of that, the truth is that everything that happens in the world is
[00:17:34] stirring things up in some way and that Latin America. With all
[00:17:38] the aspects that are there, as you said,
[00:17:41] elections, treaties of
[00:17:44] Mexico with Canada, with the United States
[00:17:48] will be in focus and it comes at a time when the markets, to
[00:17:52] continue a bit in our focus today on markets,
[00:17:56] when the markets have also been quite good and
[00:17:59] that there are expectations that, although difficult to
[00:18:03] anticipate, certainly, they are moving
[00:18:07] in a way that they haven't in many years.
[00:18:27] I'm Meli Croveto, a travel blogger with a great passion for traveling.
[00:18:31] Reaching Machu Picchu is already
[00:18:35] the Inca civilization and one of the wonders of the
[00:18:38] world. Machu Picchu has a very
[00:18:41] special energy that makes you feel very, very small before
[00:18:44] the immensity and the imposingness of the
[00:18:47] citadel.
[00:18:49] When you're walking through Machu Picchu, you'll be able to find llamas, which are a
[00:18:53] symbol of the Andes here in Peru. They were the
[00:18:57] first domestic animals that the Incas had and they mean a lot to
[00:19:01] the Andean people because they also provide them with wool and
[00:19:04] food. Walking through the same places
[00:19:08] that the Incas walked thousands of years ago makes me very emotional because it
[00:19:12] makes me feel very proud to be Peruvian.
[00:20:52] Forum with Senate candidate James Talarico, a face-to-face meeting with
[00:20:56] voters, unfiltered, unedited. Can the Democratic
[00:20:59] aspirant win in a Republican state? CNN Forum and
[00:21:02] Jubile with James Talarico on Wednesday on
[00:21:05] CNN. Would you like to have a healthier life?
[00:21:09] Join me to discover new tips, scientific
[00:21:12] advances, and current methods that can help us improve our
[00:21:16] mind and body in a consultation with Dr. Huerda. A
[00:21:20] CNN podcast. Hello, I'm Andres Openheimer. If you like
[00:21:24] our programs, you can always watch them on the Openheimer YouTube
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[00:21:34] we will send you all my programs and columns
[00:21:37] for free every week. Register, I'll
[00:21:39] wait for you.
[00:21:50] And it's good that you mentioned it again, as you said at the beginning of the program, that
[00:21:53] assuming this transition occurs,
[00:21:57] because there are a series of questions that you have explained very well, that is,
[00:22:01] that's the starting point, to say, well, maybe this
[00:22:05] is not as immediate as we think. Second, the point of
[00:22:08] transparency, of maintaining transparency, which
[00:22:12] Bernad gave us, has been
[00:22:15] tremendously a positive asset and a great
[00:22:18] asset of the institution. And then, fundamentally,
[00:22:21] the structure of a
[00:22:24] strong Fed with
[00:22:28] that complexity it has right now of regional
[00:22:31] is a strength.
[00:23:47] Thank you for staying with us. What would change for me? Latin America if the
[00:23:51] presidential right-wing candidate of Brazil Flavio Bolsonaro, who won the
[00:23:54] first round in the October 4th elections, wins the
[00:23:59] held on October 25th. Bolsonaro is the
[00:24:03] son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was
[00:24:05] sentenced to 27 years in prison, is under house arrest
[00:24:09] for instigating a coup that he denies. But well, let's go back to
[00:24:13] Flavio Bolsonaro. We said in previous segments that
[00:24:16] he has good chances of winning because he has
[00:24:20] in his favor, among other things, the propagandistic boost he
[00:24:24] gets from having unexpectedly won the first
[00:24:27] round. And he also has in his favor the fact that several of the
[00:24:31] other candidates, those who were eliminated in the first
[00:24:34] round, were right-wing or center-right,
[00:24:37] and their supporters could then vote for
[00:24:41] Bolsonaro in the second round. And if that
[00:24:44] happens, if Bolsonaro wins, the political map of Latin America will be
[00:24:48] covered by governments, those who are on the right of the political
[00:24:51] center. But what regional impact could
[00:24:55] that have? A Bolsonaro victory, would it form, for example, a
[00:24:58] formidable bloc of countries allied with the United States
[00:25:02] and favorable to free markets, perhaps even a regional
[00:25:05] integration bloc? Would the
[00:25:09] egos of the presidents and the
[00:25:12] nationalist tendencies in several countries prevail? The
[00:25:15] concrete fact is that we could see greater cooperation on
[00:25:19] security issues, security and the fight against cartels and drug trafficking,
[00:25:22] because many of these current presidents and Bolsonaro
[00:25:26] himself have made the fight against crime and a hard
[00:25:29] hand against criminals one of the main priorities of their
[00:25:33] political platforms, and several countries have already
[00:25:36] joined the Shield of the Americas, the alliance
[00:25:39] promoted by President Donald
[00:25:41] Trump. In the economic sphere, it would be
[00:25:45] good if the right-wing and center-right presidents took advantage of this
[00:25:48] ideological affinity they have to turn Latin America into an
[00:25:52] magnet for foreign investment, as Asia
[00:25:55] has been in recent decades. But
[00:25:59] there are several reasons to doubt that we will see
[00:26:03] the formation of a solid and lasting right-wing bloc in the
[00:26:07] region. First, the unifying
[00:26:11] factor of many of these governments is President
[00:26:14] Donald Trump, and Trump
[00:26:18] could be very weakened if the opposition wins the November
[00:26:21] 3rd midterm elections in the United States. And anyway, Trump will be
[00:26:25] on his way out because the Constitution does not allow him to be
[00:26:28] re-elected, as Diego Oguelar, a former ambassador of Argentina to
[00:26:32] China, the United States, and Brazil, told me, this
[00:26:35] right-wing bloc in Latin America will very soon be left without
[00:26:44] leaders in the region, like Argentina's President Javier Miley, have
[00:26:47] been critical of economic integration groups like
[00:26:50] Mercosur, for example, they object to a Mercosur
[00:26:53] clause that does not allow them to make free trade agreements on their own with
[00:26:57] third countries, with countries outside the bloc. And Bolsonaro in
[00:27:01] Brazil has also said
[00:27:03] that he wants to free Brazil
[00:27:05] from what he called
[00:27:08] the shackles of Mercosur.
[00:27:12] Mercosur,
[00:27:14] So it's hard to think that the new generation of right-wing
[00:27:18] or center-right presidents will try to promote
[00:27:21] blocs or a regional economic
[00:27:24] integration bloc. Third, many of the right-wing
[00:27:27] presidents, like Trump, are critical of multilateral
[00:27:30] organizations and what they call globalism. They are
[00:27:34] characterized by their nationalism, just
[00:27:37] as Trump championed America first.
[00:27:40] We could see a Brazil
[00:27:44] first, which is not conducive to the formation
[00:27:47] of a regional economic bloc. The
[00:27:50] nationalism of the new right-wing governments can be stronger than the
[00:27:54] ideological coincidences with their neighbors.
[00:27:58] If Bolsonaro wins, almost all of Latin
[00:28:02] America will have ideologically
[00:28:04] aligned governments, and that would be good if they could
[00:28:08] agree to do some things together, some elementary things, for
[00:28:12] example, it is ridiculous that Latin America does not have a common
[00:28:16] visa for the entire region, that a Japanese or Chinese or
[00:28:19] Australian tourist who wants to travel to Latin America has to get a visa for each
[00:28:23] country, that discourages tourism, and it is ridiculous that several
[00:28:27] Latin American countries that still do not have joint export promotion
[00:28:30] offices in Europe or Asia
[00:28:34] do not open shared offices to save costs.
[00:28:38] As I just said, it would be great if these countries
[00:28:42] took advantage of the political affinity they have to
[00:28:45] promote common initiatives, but for now,
[00:28:48] even if Bolsonaro wins, I don't see many people
[00:28:52] talking about increasing regional economic integration or
[00:28:56] supporting joint initiatives like
[00:28:58] these. That's not being discussed.
[00:29:02] Well, I'll leave you with that reflection for today. I invite you as always to
[00:29:06] visit me on my YouTube channel, on my
[00:29:09] Instagram, Facebook, X account, what used to be called Twitter, and
[00:29:13] several others. Thank you for joining us. See you next
[00:29:16] week.
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[00:30:36] We are CNN, the world leader in news.
[00:30:53] Hello, welcome to Mirador Mundial, the weekend news program of CNN
[00:30:57] en Español. I'm Rey Rodríguez, and as always, I invite you to join me for the
[00:31:00] next half hour with the main news that marked the
[00:31:04] day's agenda.
[00:31:05] Let's begin.