TELEARUBA — broadcast 20261102 043000 UTC 466 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] Republicans will control the Congress, while voters [00:00:03] decide, CNN analyzes the most important issues, the [00:00:07] nice." Sheila Scarboro is a key races, the voting data, and what all this [00:00:10] means for the country. Join our journalists for a day with [00:00:13] live reports, real-time results, in-depth [00:00:17] analysis. Election night in the United States, Tuesday on [00:00:21] CNN. I'm Rafael Romo in Atlanta, [00:00:24] we are [00:00:25] CNN. [00:00:36] but independently of that, the truth is that everything that happens in the world [00:00:39] is somehow stirring, and that Latin America, with all [00:00:44] take the time to give them to us. Um, one of the aspects that are there, as you said, elections of the [00:00:48] treaty of Mexico with Canada and the United States [00:00:51] will be in the spotlight, and it comes at a time when the markets, to [00:00:55] continue a bit with our focus [00:00:58] today on markets, in which... the markets have also been quite good, [00:01:01] and [00:01:03] country left at 9:30 in there are expectations that, to the extent [00:01:05] is showing you a formula and a that they are difficult to anticipate [00:01:08] certainly, but that are moving [00:01:12] in a way that they haven't in [00:01:14] and as a result, if you are a [00:01:28] The need to emigrate knows no age. Many [00:01:32] claim they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek [00:01:35] to go further [00:01:36] north. [00:01:40] The Mexican army's anti-drone battalion consists of [00:01:43] this type of element: inhibitors to bring down drones [00:01:47] that have become a threat. The [00:01:50] Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling [00:01:53] point. This is one of the illegal crossing [00:01:57] points for cattle going from Central America to [00:02:00] Mexico. Thousands of demonstrators, workers from this [00:02:04] country, left at 9:30 in the morning from the Angel of [00:02:07] Independence. I am in the municipality of Teuchitlán, in the [00:02:11] Mexican state of Jalisco. Here, the discovery was [00:02:14] macabre by groups of people searching [00:02:18] for the disappeared. What made you come here with the suspicion [00:02:22] do to change the status of that your son might be on this [00:02:23] ranch? [00:02:29] Historic trends show midterm elections typically swing [00:02:32] against the party in power, and with recent polling, there are some signs for [00:02:36] Democrats that that could be the case, but it is cautious optimism. [00:02:39] Joining us now is CNN senior political analyst and Bloomberg opinion [00:02:42] columnist Ron Brownstein. Ron, always great to see you. You have a new [00:02:46] piece out today on [00:02:48] the data, ready for whatever cnn.com and you're talking about signs to [00:02:51] watch for a potential blue wave and the first [00:02:54] indications will be on the east coast because you know how [00:02:58] our time is, how how how, uh? Time zones work. Uh, those [00:03:01] close, those polls will close first. What are you [00:03:04] watching? [00:03:07] Well, look, I think, you know, what I tried to do in this piece was give people a uh a way to [00:03:11] look at the results, basically on degree of difficulty uh, [00:03:14] and uh, how the early, some of the early races that that uh will [00:03:18] be uh decided and and polls where polls will close first, give you a [00:03:22] sense of whether this is going to be a good night for Democrats, which seems to be a bare minimum [00:03:26] a very good night or an historic night, like take Pennsylvania. [00:03:30] Democrats win Pennsylvania 7 against Ryan McKensie and Pennsylvania [00:03:33] 10 against Scott Perry, they will be on track for a solid night [00:03:37] doing what they have to do to win the majority. If they also win Pennsylvania [00:03:40] 8 against Rob Bresnaham with Paige Cognetti in a district that [00:03:44] Trump won by Moore, they'll be on track for a better night, and if they win [00:03:48] Pennsylvania one, which is a suburban seat kind of has been a white [00:03:52] whale where they have not been able to dislodge Brian Fitzpatrick since [00:03:55] 2016, that will be a sign of an even bigger night. The same sort [00:03:59] of. In the New York Metro area, uh, the seventh district in [00:04:03] What excites New Jersey, Tom Kane Jr., beating him, which showed them on track for doing what they have [00:04:06] to do. Beating Mike Lawler in New York 17th [00:04:10] district in the Hudson Valley, a much more formidable [00:04:13] incumbent, would be a sign of something bigger, above all in the east, [00:04:17] Jessica, the marquee race in the East Coast time zone is the Maine Senate [00:04:21] race. As we talked about before, Susan Collins during Trump's first [00:04:24] term was the only Republican Senate incumbent or [00:04:28] challenger who won in a section state where more voters disapproved [00:04:32] than approved of his job performance. He's been an incredible survivor, but the [00:04:35] headwinds are a lot stronger this time uh, and if she [00:04:39] doesn't make it, I think it is going to be a sign that the high level of [00:04:43] disapproval of Trump is just a force of gravity pulling down Republicans [00:04:47] everywhere, yeah, and and that's such a great way to break it down, so you can [00:04:51] kind of see, okay, if you know, you can take it state by state, [00:04:54] obviously, we've said this until we're blue in the face, we don't know what's going to happen on Tuesday, [00:04:58] we are all, you know, looking at at tea, reading tea leaves and [00:05:03] WWE nature of data points and putting things together. Um, but at this point we're going to have to wait until the voters tell [00:05:06] us. But, but, but in terms of early voting and the data that we're [00:05:10] getting from that, um, what are those [00:05:13] data points, what are what what can you glean from that at this [00:05:16] point? [00:05:18] Well, the early voting is very consistent with all the other data that we have, [00:05:22] right? I mean, if you look at the special elections that have been held in [00:05:26] 25 and 26, generally speaking, Democrats are running [00:05:29] about 10 or 11 points better in each of those [00:05:33] jurisdictions than Kamala Harris did in 2024. If you [00:05:36] look at the generic ballot polling that has been done, which is [00:05:39] essentially testing the national House popular [00:05:43] vote, nine points, maybe nine and a half, [00:05:46] sometimes. Trump won the popular vote by a point and a half in [00:05:50] '24. So again, you're seeing a shift of about 10 or 11 [00:05:54] points toward Democrats. That's basically very similar to [00:05:57] what uh we are seeing modeled at least by Target Smart uh in the early [00:06:01] vote uh this time where it looks to be about nine points [00:06:05] more favorable to Democrats uh than the early vote in '24. And [00:06:09] what that also, what what political strategists call this is the [00:06:12] uniform swing, the uniform swing in the country, the [00:06:16] waterline on which every other race floats, [00:06:19] is about 10 points more democratic than it was in [00:06:23] 2024. Um, [00:06:27] Republican running in a jurisdiction, anything, House [00:06:30] district or a state, a Senate a Senate race [00:06:33] statewide, that Trump won by 10 or less, you are at high risk. [00:06:37] It doesn't mean that all of those uh Republicans are [00:06:40] going to lose, but history says that a lot of them are going to [00:06:43] lose. It, in effect, the wave is just bigger than the [00:06:47] defenses, bigger than the wall that they have available. All right, [00:06:51] Ron Brownstein, great to see you, thanks so much. [00:06:54] Thanks. Ahead, unable to afford a place to live, [00:06:58] struggling to keep the lights on. CNN's Phil Maddingley is going to talk with some [00:07:01] North Carolina voters who are struggling with the cost of living in [00:07:04] different but very impactful ways, and our panel of [00:07:08] experts also back to answer some of your questions. You're watching [00:07:11] CNN's Ken. [00:07:23] Diplomacy, they know well what is said in private is not what is said in public, well, here [00:07:27] we know what is said in private. Clash [00:07:30] of opinions this Sunday [00:07:33] on CNN. [00:07:39] Business is all about making connections. [00:07:46] But some connections are easier to make than [00:07:48] others. [00:07:53] With a CNN partner hotel, the world is [00:07:56] always at your fingertips. [00:07:59] CNN Partner Hotels connected to your [00:08:02] world. You have 5 minutes. [00:08:06] We have five things for you, a podcast with the five [00:08:09] most important topics of the day. Just ask your [00:08:12] smart device, give me the latest news from [00:08:15] CNN. Next, I'm going to tell you the five things you need [00:08:19] to know at this hour, updated every hour, no cost or [00:08:23] commitments. Stay informed from anywhere, anytime. [00:08:26] Subscribe to our newsletter, [00:08:30] listen to the five things you need to know throughout the [00:08:33] day. I'm Mexican British, [00:08:36] I've been a journalist for 20 years, eh, in Mexico [00:08:40] City, in the United States, and now in Miami for [00:08:44] CNN. CNN America is a multiplatform [00:08:47] program where you'll have information from all [00:08:51] areas that will allow you to understand the world from the angle you're [00:08:55] seeing it from. In those three hours, you'll not only [00:08:58] have information from a political [00:09:01] economic perspective, but also health, from a women's [00:09:05] perspective, but above all, it's a space where we can have [00:09:08] conversations not to polarize, but to integrate [00:09:12] society. [00:09:15] me most is informing, investigating, [00:09:19] researching the why of things, getting to the bottom of the facts. [00:09:23] Here you'll see what makes news and everything that [00:09:25] impacts your daily life. CNN America with Rebecca [00:09:29] Kelly, Monday to Friday on [00:09:31] CNN. [00:09:37] To understand the world, you need to seek the [00:09:40] truth. Let's go back to the time when... [00:10:12] perspectives and new horizons, every [00:10:15] day, no matter where life takes [00:10:18] you, we follow what [00:10:21] matters to you, we forge a path to [00:10:25] truth and understanding of the [00:10:27] world. [00:10:34] I'm Rafael Romo in Atlanta, we are CNN. [00:10:50] The need to migrate knows no age. Many [00:10:54] claim they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek [00:10:57] to go further [00:10:58] north. [00:11:02] The Mexican army's anti-drone battalion consists of [00:11:05] this type of element: inhibitors to bring down drones [00:11:09] that have become a threat. The [00:11:12] Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling [00:11:15] point. This is one of the illegal crossing [00:11:19] points for cattle going from Central America to [00:11:22] Mexico. Thousands of demonstrators. Workers from this [00:11:28] the morning from the Angel of Independence. I am in the [00:11:31] municipality of Teuchitlán in the Mexican state of [00:11:34] Jalisco. Here, the discovery was macabre by [00:11:38] groups of people searching for the disappeared. [00:11:41] What made you come here with the suspicion that your son might be on this [00:11:45] ranch? [00:11:49] I'm Pau Mosquera in Madrid, Spain, we are [00:11:52] CNN. [00:11:56] "Affordability is a key issue on the ballot in this year's midterms, from [00:12:00] gas prices to housing costs, everyday expenses. A lot [00:12:04] of Americans say they are feeling the squeeze out there, and CNN's Phil Maddingley [00:12:08] spoke with voters in North Carolina about the challenges they're [00:12:11] facing. [00:12:15] For a dozen years, the Outer Banks was the promise kept for Stew [00:12:18] Layer, driving wild horse tours across the northern Outer [00:12:22] Banks. When I first moved down here, I was pretty happy with my [00:12:26] life." He says he made $50,000 when the house [00:12:29] he'd rented for eight years went back on the vacation market. The money [00:12:33] wasn't the problem. Now it's back to a weekly rental. [00:12:37] Homeowners can make a lot more profit, oh yeah, renting [00:12:40] to vacationers. Stew moved into employer housing, beds [00:12:44] his employers needed back every spring for seasonal [00:12:47] hires. At what point did you realize you were going to be living in your car [00:12:51] for a period of time? When I moved out of the second [00:12:55] uh employee housing, there was nowhere to go, so he [00:12:59] lived in his truck, moving from parking lot to parking lot, [00:13:03] then in January, it snowed. My battery had died [00:13:06] in my truck, I couldn't start it and run the [00:13:09] engine, and after a couple days of [00:13:12] that, my feet felt pretty brittle. How much pain were you [00:13:16] in? I'd say on a one to 10 scale, [00:13:19] I was probably at nine. Frostbite, three [00:13:23] hospital stays, a fall, and a broken [00:13:25] hip. Now he's 65 and assisted living an hour and a half [00:13:29] from the beach, waiting on his Social Security. "When I was living in [00:13:32] my truck, that was a pretty dark [00:13:35] time." [00:13:41] So how does a place built on hospitality run out of room for the [00:13:45] people who provide it? Nearly half [00:13:48] the homes in Dare County are vacation homes. This June, short-term [00:13:52] rentals here averaged about $617 [00:13:55] a night. At the same time, the wage it takes to rent a [00:13:59] modest two-bedroom has jumped from $22 an [00:14:02] hour to $27.50 [00:14:05] in just three years, and that's forced employers here to come up [00:14:09] with their own solutions. Solutions like buying homes just to house their [00:14:12] labor force in order to have a labor force. [00:14:16] The break came with COVID. We saw real [00:14:20] estate doubling, tripling. Chris Merrick [00:14:22] runs Ocean Atlantic rentals. "The housing stuff came out of [00:14:26] necessity, and uh we would not be in business today." For Matt [00:14:30] Couri, the biggest worry used to be inventory. "I used to have [00:14:33] shrimp dreams, now it's more so about the people, and I need to find a [00:14:37] way to get housing for these people." Chris spent his first summer here [00:14:41] living in a garage. Three decades later he has a business, a [00:14:44] home, and three daughters. "My [00:14:47] kids will probably never live here. I mean, where are they going to [00:14:51] buy? What are they going to do? Live in my downstairs? Yeah, I mean, it's it's [00:14:55] heartbreaking." [00:14:58] So we're driving on US 64. We're driving west about [00:15:01] 150 miles. This one highway connects two [00:15:05] very different economies in the same newly redrawn congressional district. It's [00:15:09] a toss-up district at this point, but it's those two economies [00:15:12] that really underpin the scale of the affordability [00:15:16] crisis across the country. One highway [00:15:19] connects two communities redrawn into a single [00:15:22] House district, but tourism money flowing into one [00:15:26] end hardly reaches the other. Tobacco fields and textile [00:15:29] factories once supported a thriving local economy here in Rocky [00:15:33] Mount. The industries hollowed out just like its [00:15:36] population, and those left behind are still absorbing the [00:15:39] financial aftershocks. "I'm Phil." "Very [00:15:45] retired veteran living on the VA disability and Social Security [00:15:48] she earned. She moved home from DC. [00:15:52] "I wanted the good old days my grandmother had. That's why I moved [00:15:55] back here because DC was getting too [00:15:59] expensive." Rocky Mount's shaky finances fueled a crisis at [00:16:03] its municipal power company. In April, the city raised utility [00:16:06] rates about 15%. "It's [00:16:09] not supposed to be hard. This is not what I worked all [00:16:13] those years for." In June, she went to the utility office [00:16:17] to set up a payment plan on her past due bill. "She tells [00:16:20] me, if you don't have $1,100 right [00:16:23] now, I'm going to cut you off Monday." [00:16:27] $1,100 is more than a week's pay for the average private [00:16:31] sector worker in Edgecombe County, and she needs [00:16:33] insulin, which has to stay cold. Yet her power [00:16:37] was off for nearly two months this summer. "I slept in my [00:16:41] car. I can cut my air conditioner on in my car if I'm [00:16:44] heading. I had to spend more in gas, but that's [00:16:48] how I survived." Before she [00:16:51] retired, Sheila's job was helping homeless veterans get the benefits [00:16:54] they'd earned. Now she was the one sleeping in her [00:16:58] car. "It can happen to anybody. Nobody's [00:17:02] safe out here." Help finally came from Veteran's Charity [00:17:05] Donor. Sheila kept her home. Many of her neighbors are not [00:17:09] so lucky. Edgecombe County has the highest rate of eviction filings among [00:17:13] renters in North Carolina. Two [00:17:16] people, opposite ends of one congressional [00:17:19] district. He needs first month's rent and [00:17:22] deposit. She needed $1,100 [00:17:25] just to keep the lights on. Both worked hard, both did all the right [00:17:28] things, both ended up in the same place. One priced [00:17:32] out, one was pushed out. This is the affordability [00:17:35] crisis. [00:17:40] Stew knows exactly where he's going when his benefits [00:17:43] come, bonding a room along the [00:17:47] beach somewhere between Kitty Hawk and Nag's Head. [00:17:50] "I made a pact with myself when I moved down here that I would go to the [00:17:54] beach every day, and I did that up until this [00:17:57] past winter. I missed the beach." [00:18:01] "You don't feel like anybody's listening when they're not listening. Right [00:18:05] now is not a good time to ask me to vote for anybody. My [00:18:09] lights are off. Can you help me get them on? So until you [00:18:13] help me get my lights off, don't ask me about voting for [00:18:16] nobody." [00:18:19] This is Phil Maddingley in North Carolina, thank you for that. Our panel is [00:18:22] back, and I think we all really watched all of [00:18:26] that, and it just drives home what is so real for so many Americans. It's [00:18:30] like that woman said, "Don't ask me to vote for anybody, just help me get my lights back [00:18:33] on." And I think that's that's the reality for so many Americans when we talk about polling [00:18:37] numbers and and voting. What is that? Do [00:18:41] politicians understand that? Because I think a lot of people, it just gets missed [00:18:45] almost, right? It seems that way. I mean, that that was just disheartening. I mean, [00:18:48] look, you know, we talk a lot about left and right, but you can't [00:18:52] help but worry and feel sad about people who [00:18:55] worked hard, they did everything right, uh, and this [00:18:59] guy sleeping in his car, 65 years old, this [00:19:02] lady served our country honorably, can't afford [00:19:05] to turn her, keep her lights up [00:19:08] on. Look, I get it. I, I get why people are so [00:19:11] angry, and I, I have certainly done my part as a [00:19:15] conservative to try to articulate to my party, we can't [00:19:18] dismiss this stuff, and you shouldn't dismiss it, [00:19:22] and it's easy to say, "The the other side is bad [00:19:25] for this reason." It's easy to say, "Well, this just isn't the right uh [00:19:28] conservative candidate." But even our own voters don't want to hear [00:19:32] that. I mean, I, I was in Texas recently for two days, and I [00:19:35] mentioned this on the earlier show. And a lot of the people that I talked [00:19:39] to uh at something that my company put on, [00:19:43] gun owners, low-propensity voters, hard-working people said, "Look, it's hard for me [00:19:46] too." Now they still said they were going to vote for the [00:19:49] Republican uh, but it wasn't lost upon me that these are people who are [00:19:53] also struggling, and so it doesn't matter if it's a D behind the name or an R [00:19:56] behind the name, most people are struggling, and what they want to know is what are you going to [00:20:00] do to heal and resolve these problems? And if you don't have a solution [00:20:03] for that, Jessica, then I think many people like that, like the veterans, they'll stay home. Stay [00:20:07] home. And it's why I think we are seeing increasing swings [00:20:10] in in who is in charge. It's it's it's [00:20:14] the the White House is occupied by D then an R then D, you know, [00:20:18] it used to we'd have two terms, two terms, that sort of thing. We just keep [00:20:22] seeing it swing. I think that I think that there are a lot of [00:20:25] people who have become disconnected and disassociated [00:20:29] with what we see as a political reality, uh, [00:20:33] and that's why I was saying that Haley Stevens [00:20:36] earlier today... just kind of reinforced the [00:20:40] the American body politic, right? And [00:20:44] so when you see these things happen, it just makes you more [00:20:46] disillusioned. Um, you go through different stages of... I mean, a lot of [00:20:50] people are are really hopeful, um, and [00:20:53] then they go from hopeful to the frustrated, um, and then [00:20:57] they go from frustrated to kind of disillusioned, and then they go from [00:21:01] disillusion to disassociated. And [00:21:04] so that's why when you have [00:21:07] instances that shock the shock the core culture of a [00:21:10] community or a country like what happened today for us a Sunday that for [00:21:14] us is reverberating, right? That's breaking news, that's wall-to- [00:21:18] wall coverage, that's who is the main [00:21:20] But I also want to hear from, it's no longer, character on Twitter today, but for these people that just reinforce [00:21:23] reinforces their disassociation. Yeah, all right, I [00:21:27] don't want to get, I want to get to some viewer questions just before we run out of [00:21:30] time, um, because people did [00:21:34] the one of our viewers asked, "Is South [00:21:36] Carolina just a pipe dream for Democrats, or is it actually [00:21:40] possible for Annie Andrews to win?" Bekari, I mean, I know you're [00:21:43] South Carolina. [00:21:48] it's no longer a pipe dream. It's extremely difficult to win in South Carolina, but [00:21:52] it's no longer a pipe dream. I think Annie Andrews [00:21:55] recipe. Of course, everything has to go well on Tuesday, it has to [00:21:59] hit home. We run out of time, um, because people did take the time to give [00:22:03] them to us. Um, one of the one of our viewers asked, "Is South [00:22:06] Carolina just a pipe dream for Democrats, or is it actually [00:22:10] possible for Annie Andrews to win?" Bukari, I mean, I know [00:22:13] you're South Carolina. [00:22:16] But I also want to hear from Lewis, it's no longer, it's no longer a pipe dream. It's [00:22:20] extremely difficult to win in South Carolina, but it's no longer a pipe [00:22:23] dream. I think Annie Andrews is showing you a formula and a recipe. Of course, [00:22:27] everything has to go well on Tuesday, it has to hit home, [00:22:30] possible for Annie Andrews to win? Bukari, I mean, I know [00:22:33] you're South Carolina. [00:22:36] I also want to hear from Lewis, it's no longer, it's no longer a pipe dream. It's [00:22:40] extremely difficult to win in South Carolina, but it's no longer a pipe dream. [00:22:43] I think Annie Andrews is showing you a formula and a recipe. Of course, everything [00:22:47] has to go well on Tuesday, it has to hit on. Run, Darling [00:22:51] Graham has to strike out. All those things have to happen, um, but it's [00:22:55] no longer a pipe dream, and I think that people see the fundamentals in South Carolina, it played, [00:22:58] yeah, no longer a pipe dream. I think it's a pipe [00:23:01] dream. I, I, I do think it's a pipe dream, but I think it's, I [00:23:05] agree with you. Um, the next question was, even if Democrats win the House and [00:23:09] Senate, what are they to be able to [00:23:12] the war? And this gets at what, the [00:23:15] congressional, I think on both sides, congressional members have been saying, which is that they [00:23:19] want more power when it comes to what the president is doing. I think [00:23:23] the White House would fight it. I mean, and I think there's a legal case to make about [00:23:27] executive authority as it relates to keeping the country safe. I think [00:23:30] they'll say, "Well, look, what about Obama uh when he went to [00:23:34] Gaddafi, for example, or maybe they'll point to Bush, or maybe [00:23:38] they'll point to Biden." Certain limited strikes, and I think they'll try to make the argument, [00:23:41] "This is a limited strike, not a prolonged conflict." And I think [00:23:45] they would probably ultimately prevail before the Supreme Court based on some of, I mean, you're [00:23:49] the attorney here, but based on out of the place for people who were in districts [00:23:53] who thought that they were going to run in one place and then got moved to another, they know that there's [00:23:57] some real real changes that are happening in in the states. I was on [00:24:00] a call the other day with some Democratic leaders who have said they think [00:24:04] that maybe the Republicans get a net three or four seats at the best out of [00:24:08] this after we go through all of it. Here's the challenge though, going back to the [00:24:11] earlier question, which is when this is all over after we get past [00:24:15] Tuesday and we get into Wednesday for Democrats, um, are we just going [00:24:18] to jump into an ideological fight between the kind of DSA [00:24:22] progressive wing and the kind of more moderate centrist wing? Get married, have kids, [00:24:25] all those things are slipping through. I think we're going to have quite a week. You've got two more hours, [00:24:29] don't you? Yeah, keep going. Um, our [00:24:33] thanks to all of you. These two gentlemen will be back with you at [00:24:36] 8:30 in the morning, so get some rest. Um, thank you, [00:24:40] thank you guys so much, and thank you for joining me this evening, i'm Jessica Dean, of [00:24:44] course, stay with CNN on Tuesday for election night in [00:24:47] America, I'm going to see you back here again. 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