TELEARUBA — broadcast 20261102 060000 UTC 445 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] art, a Tatiana, a Rocío, for having joined us, and to you for allowing us to enter [00:00:04] your homes. I am Juan Carlos López, on behalf of the technical and [00:00:08] most watched production team of CNN Washington, and our colleagues [00:00:10] from Choque de Opiniones at CNN in Atlanta and Mexico City. [00:00:14] We thank you for your company. We'll see you on Monday on Directo USA, on [00:00:17] Tuesday in our special coverage of the Latino vote in the [00:00:21] midterm elections, and, of course, next Sunday [00:00:24] here on Choque de Opiniones on CNN. See you [00:00:26] later. [00:00:41] We are CNN, the world leader in news. [00:00:59] Hello, and welcome to Mexico. It's a pleasure to greet you. We are in the [00:01:02] final stretch of the midterm elections in the United [00:01:06] States, with a lot of activity, of course, from the [00:01:09] campaigns, with Donald Trump still campaigning. Former [00:01:12] President Barack Obama has also joined the campaign, and [00:01:16] he is also doing his part to [00:01:18] has a factor because a lot of what try to rally the Democratic electorate. In a race where there [00:01:21] is uncertainty, there are, of course, reserved forecasts in many [00:01:24] states. Where should we pay attention? We will talk about this, how the [00:01:28] race has unfolded. We will talk about all of this on this occasion in Mexico opina, almost [00:01:32] the data, ready for whatever on the eve of the elections, and I am joined by a distinguished [00:01:35] panel on this occasion. I am joined by Professor Raquel [00:01:38] Zaet, academic from the Department of International Studies at Iberoamericana. [00:01:42] Thank you, Raquel, for being with us. Many thanks. Larry Rubin [00:01:45] is President of the American Society of Mexico. Thank you, Larry, for being with us. On the [00:01:49] contrary, Mario, thank you very much. And Marc Sable, spokesman for the Democratic Party [00:01:52] in Mexico. Marc, good to have you here. Welcome. Let's see, [00:01:56] Raquel, we'll talk about the parties and how it's [00:02:00] going later, but how have you seen the race, [00:02:03] how have you seen President Donald Trump's performance, [00:02:07] in general terms, right off the bat, let's say, right off the bat. Well, [00:02:10] first of all, it looks, it's anticipated as what they [00:02:14] call a blue wave. We don't know, because 4 years ago [00:02:17] there was an expectation of a red wave, and it didn't happen, it was the other way around, [00:02:21] no. However, if the polls seem to be [00:02:25] benefiting the Democrats, but again, [00:02:28] we don't know what happens is that I believe that the [00:02:32] President of the United States himself sees the polls, [00:02:35] he is very aware, and therefore he is, even before the race began, when [00:02:39] he was redistricting, that he imposed [00:02:43] redistricting half of the decade to [00:02:46] win districts for the Republicans, but well, it hasn't [00:02:50] worked for him because now we are seeing that many of the districts that [00:02:54] were purely Republican today [00:02:57] have become Democratic or will become [00:03:01] Democratic, but this is part of what Trump [00:03:05] is doing, and that in addition to envisioning that he will [00:03:09] lose this race, he was even seen [00:03:12] a couple of months ago even in a closed [00:03:15] session with Hakeem Jeffries, who in [00:03:19] any case would be the Speaker of the House, that is, the [00:03:22] head of the House, but of the House of Representatives, I think he [00:03:26] is seeing this art of the deal beforehand, [00:03:29] no. But anyway, he is saying that if the [00:03:33] Republicans don't win at least one of the two chambers, there is [00:03:36] fraud, right? Because it's easier to anticipate, as [00:03:40] Bolsonaro also did in Brazil, to anticipate [00:03:43] that if he loses, it's because there is fraud. If he wins, there is no [00:03:47] fraud. In fact, he said it last [00:03:52] McAllen, and yes, I can see weekend. This is what we have seen. We see a President Trump a little [00:03:55] desperate due to a low approval rating. Right, and [00:03:59] presenting the different [00:04:02] rallies and even pulling in [00:04:05] people who have nothing to do with it and with a [00:04:09] very strange discourse. He doesn't refer [00:04:12] (well, I'm going to say it on television) but he refers to the behinds of [00:04:16] the senators who are in the race because he finds them very [00:04:20] handsome and that's what he thinks will make him win, right? Sometimes [00:04:23] behinds give votes, we don't know, but [00:04:27] well. [00:04:30] Well, there are cases where we know they have given, but let's see, Donald Trump is on the [00:04:33] ballot, he has been in the race, but he is on the ballot, is this part of it? Well, look, [00:04:37] Mario, I think so, definitely, I just returned from Washington [00:04:41] and what we see, both in Washington and in the [00:04:44] United States, is that Donald Trump has put himself on the [00:04:49] truck or car that helps ballot. He knows that among the Republican electorate, [00:04:51] particularly, he has a lot of strength, right? And especially the [00:04:54] Republican who is going to vote in the race, because what he [00:04:58] is looking for is to get people to vote. That is one of the first factors, right? That the [00:05:02] Republican who is not [00:05:05] disheartened and wants to vote in this election, the midterms are not [00:05:09] that exciting in general for US citizens. [00:05:21] It's the factor that President Donald Trump offered at the Republican Convention in Dallas of [00:05:25] $500 per person per adult, right? If he wins both chambers, [00:05:29] then how much of a factor will that have in this election? We'll know [00:05:33] after the election. What is very certain, as Raquel says, is that the polls [00:05:36] don't give you an adequate measurement because sometimes they tell you that [00:05:40] almost always they have said that Donald Trump cannot win, and he ends up winning, [00:05:44] so it's difficult to measure the [00:05:47] polls without being directly in each of the [00:05:51] districts. It happened in the recent past, right? With the Hispanic vote, for example, that when [00:05:55] there were polls, it went very low because it seemed like it was a hidden [00:05:59] vote that they didn't want to say, and finally many voted for Donald Trump and more in South [00:06:02] Texas. Texas played a central role here [00:06:05] because you have a Senate race, right? Which is a [00:06:09] key part because Texas is the heart of the [00:06:20] polls, they go up and down, but they have placed [00:06:23] Paxton closer, probably the injection of the 150 [00:06:27] million also [00:06:31] happens in the United States is also how much money they have in the [00:06:35] race, and we see that the races are expensive, very expensive [00:06:38] elections, right? Imagine 300 million. [00:07:06] Well, look, the issue is why, in my opinion, President Trump will not have a legal problem, [00:07:10] it's because he offers it to all Americans. [00:07:12] No, it doesn't matter if you vote Democrat, always conditioning adults, ex [00:07:16] exactly, so, one could say it's ethical, that [00:07:20] would be another word, legal, I think he'll get away with it, [00:07:23] ethical depends on each one's opinion, right? And also [00:07:26] on the electorate, how much that will [00:07:30] play in the vote, well, I can imagine that for a [00:07:33] couple who are neither Democrat nor Republican, the [00:07:37] doubt enters, right? What if we vote, you and I, $10,000, oh well, what would we do, [00:07:41] right? So I think that plays an important role in this [00:07:44] race, although the midterms never favor the [00:07:47] incumbent president, right? So I think that will also play a [00:07:51] role, the difficult thing here, and as [00:07:54] you asked from the beginning, is how much is Donald [00:07:58] Trump on the ballot? What is true is that, for example, in [00:08:01] Texas, he has had eight rallies, and President Trump [00:08:05] goes from rally to rally despite this month, I think he's been there four [00:08:08] times. Yes, yes, it's a huge number, and [00:08:12] obviously inciting [00:08:14] and enthusing the base to go out and [00:08:18] vote, particularly in South Texas, which is where it's considered that there's more [00:08:21] risk and that voted for him in the first race, right? [00:08:25] So he's trying to see if they'll vote for him again. That's where the [00:08:29] doubt is. He's also betting on the Senate, right? Because undoubtedly [00:08:32] the Senate is one of the factors he sees as [00:08:36] potential. I particularly believe that because there are [00:08:39] so many seats in the Senate that he would have to lose. The [00:08:42] Republican party will be able to retain [00:08:45] the upper house. The big question is the lower house. If the [00:08:49] Democrats don't win the Senate, it's a failure. I have a lot of [00:08:53] hope in this case, but obviously it's [00:08:56] doubtful, and there are three scenarios. Let's see, [00:08:59] one is that they only win the House of Representatives. [00:09:03] The second is that they win the House [00:09:06] of Representatives and the Senate, but with a [00:09:10] majority of one, two, and the third is [00:09:14] that they win both chambers and the Senate [00:09:18] with a majority that facilitates [00:09:21] actions without [00:09:24] always having fears of losing by one [00:09:28] defection or another. Those would be the three [00:09:31] scenarios. Now, in any [00:09:34] case, it wouldn't be good [00:09:36] to lose control in both chambers for President Donald [00:09:40] Trump for the rest of his mandate. It would be a big problem, [00:09:44] no. Yes, yes, yes, yes, definitely. Yes, yes. [00:09:47] Obviously, if the Democrats didn't win the House, it [00:09:51] would be a nightmare, a nightmare, a [00:09:55] nightmare. Well, we're going to take the first break and we're going to go into detail with [00:09:59] more of this interesting panel about the midterm elections in the United [00:10:02] States. [00:10:15] Every night there is the possibility of an [00:10:18] unfiltered bombardment. They [00:10:21] should not treat our young people like this anywhere. [00:10:25] Here, it is asked, is there freedom of belief in the country? In [00:10:28] Spain, it is heard, these types of phenomena are not [00:10:32] the generators of change, they are the expression of a change, and it is [00:10:35] debated, will their foreign policy be like this, lukewarm, without [00:10:39] taking a stand? Conclusions with Fernando del Rincón, [00:10:43] Monday to Friday on CNN. You have [00:10:46] 5 minutes, we have five things for you, a [00:10:49] podcast with the five most important topics of the day, just ask [00:10:53] your smart device. Give me the latest news from [00:10:57] CNN, next I'm going to tell you the five things you need [00:11:01] to know at this hour, updated every hour, free of charge or [00:11:04] commitments, stay informed from anywhere and at [00:11:08] any time, subscribe to our newsletter, listen [00:11:12] to the five things you need to know throughout the [00:11:15] day. I'm Juan Carlos López, welcome to Choque de [00:11:18] Opiniones. Diplomacy, you know very well that what is said [00:11:22] in private is not what is said in public, so let's find out what is said [00:11:25] in private. Choque de Opiniones on Sunday [00:11:29] on [00:11:29] CNN, [00:11:33] to understand the world you need to seek [00:11:36] the truth, let's go back to the time when we had to be much more [00:11:40] human, that's why we follow the facts, wherever they [00:11:44] take us, no matter how far we have to [00:11:47] go from the internal story, there are new [00:11:50] statements from President Donald Trump, an external [00:11:54] deep perspective. We delve into [00:14:19] We continue on Mexico Opina talking about the midterm elections in the United States and what [00:14:22] is at stake. Let's see, Mark was telling [00:14:25] us that if the Democrats lost the House of Representatives, it would be a [00:14:29] real nightmare. The Senate is yet to be seen, but they already have it [00:14:33] secured, so practically the House of Representatives, 90% [00:14:37] is to win the lower house. Now, where are the [00:14:41] states? Larry already mentioned Texas, which is one of the most disputed states, the most [00:14:44] difficult. Where else do you see it? Well, it seems [00:14:48] that North Carolina is safe for the Democrat because [00:14:51] the Republican National Committee withdrew its [00:14:55] funds to support its candidate, so [00:14:58] it's a good one, it's a win, it's one more [00:15:02] addition. Oh, we also have Ohio, which [00:15:06] is a close competition, [00:15:09] but it seems good because Sherry Brown [00:15:12] is a politician with a lot of experience, [00:15:16] a lot of credibility and lives with Amazon and [00:15:20] has several problems. [00:15:23] It's also interesting, we're talking [00:15:26] about Alaska, right? Which is [00:15:30] a big surprise, right? Because Alaska is super Republican. Yes, it [00:15:33] has been Republican, right? There is competition in... [00:15:58] it wouldn't be a miracle, no, it's a [00:16:01] 10%, 20% [00:16:04] chance because it's a super Republican canal too. [00:16:09] But well, we're also talking about [00:16:12] Maine, which is a purple [00:16:15] state. Oh, that has [00:16:19] the sixth [00:16:22] sixth election for [00:16:25] Susan Collins. The [00:16:29] sixth is the sixth. Yes, she is the [00:16:32] Republican senator with the most [00:16:35] time in the Senate in history. [00:16:38] Yes, how interesting. Hey, but Raquel said a moment [00:16:42] ago off-mic that the issue is winning, but [00:16:45] also the stance Donald Trump might take regarding those victories [00:16:49] arguing fraud. Now, it's one thing to denounce it, "there's fraud here," and another thing to [00:16:53] take it to have it echoed in the courts. That's [00:16:56] even more difficult. Well, I don't see it as that difficult, and I'll tell you [00:17:00] why: because when he came to power in 2024, he [00:17:04] made sure to have many assets. Many, [00:17:07] many things that would help during his [00:17:11] mandate, from having the judges on his [00:17:14] side, to having even private lawyers on [00:17:17] his side, with whom he could work in case he had to make [00:17:21] some kind of complaint, etc., or [00:17:24] even having the media and the media that were not with [00:17:28] him, well, they are fake news, we know all this, [00:17:32] he already has a lot [00:17:35] set up to be able to fight. Let's remember that he is a [00:17:39] pugilist by nature, he is a fighter, but [00:17:42] also he has been involved in this issue of the [00:17:46] deal, right? The issue of the deal for him, that is, making [00:17:50] a deal with the other, so that's why [00:17:53] we are seeing right now maneuvering in terms [00:17:55] of the internal political situation, but we even [00:17:58] saw it not long ago, but a couple of [00:18:02] weeks ago when he made a [00:18:06] deal with Putin to get diesel, because [00:18:09] diesel is very expensive and that affects inflation [00:18:12] in the United States and therefore the elections, so [00:18:16] he is also giving it an international twist so that it benefits [00:18:20] him in return, so there are many issues there, but [00:18:24] I do see that he is very clearly [00:18:27] arranging how to fight back, right? Now, [00:18:31] I think the Democrats too, however, the Democrats are very busy [00:18:35] wanting to win, wanting to recover these seats and even win some [00:18:39] that they have never had or that the last time they had them was in the [00:18:43] mid-20th century, as in the case of Alaska, [00:18:46] I don't know, Iowa, not Texas [00:18:49] itself, Iowa, yes, yes, those states, so [00:18:53] well, now we'll see, because yes, he does want to fight, [00:18:57] I see him. Now, one part is the discourse. We have seen that he gets into [00:19:00] electoral conflicts, for example, with what happened in Georgia, all the way to the last [00:19:04] consequences, but we have also seen a change in the discourse, [00:19:08] for example, of the mail-in vote, which he used to be very critical of, not [00:19:11] so much anymore. The stance has changed a bit. It seems more like an electoral [00:19:15] campaign strategy, or how do you see it? Well, in [00:19:19] part that, and there are states that frankly, [00:19:22] he will question, right? Like the state of Alaska, which [00:19:25] we were talking about off-air, Alaska has a [00:19:28] particular dynamic, right? Because the Republican candidate has the same [00:19:31] name as a candidate who appeared out of nowhere, an [00:19:35] independent. So Donald Trump says, "They planted him, right? So he [00:19:38] would have the same name and divide the Republican vote." So for a [00:19:41] confusion, for a confusion, because they have exactly the same name, right? [00:19:45] So there's no doubt. So yes, for some voter who doesn't pay [00:19:49] attention, they might go for one or the other, right? If he wins with [00:19:53] a large margin, then there will be no issue, right? What is [00:19:56] interesting about this race is particularly the [00:20:00] states that, as Raquel rightly said, had been [00:20:03] traditionally Republican, right? Mark said [00:20:06] Alaska or Texas itself, right? What will happen? Maybe [00:20:10] we won't see much difference. Maybe Paxton, whom we don't anticipate, [00:20:14] wins by a large majority. Then you would say, "Well, the polls were bad, [00:20:17] no. Texas is a very Republican state." But what we are [00:20:21] seeing in the trends would seem to suggest that [00:20:24] the Republican party in Texas does not have the strength it had [00:20:28] in the previous election. What is very important, and [00:20:31] also the profile of Talarico, right? Who is clearly, Talarico has been attractive [00:20:35] for, because he is not for the voter, he is [00:20:39] very centrist, as Raquel says, very Texan, he is [00:20:43] half the most Republican Democrat, and [00:20:47] it could be, right? Obviously Paxton has [00:20:50] sought some parts where to attack Talarico, but it has [00:20:54] been one of the [00:20:58] and most expensive races. However, [00:21:01] I think Talarico has [00:21:04] a chance. I do think he has an opportunity to [00:21:07] get in, but well, Texans are very Texan, right? And what [00:21:11] happens particularly is that, for example, in [00:21:15] Texas, the religious issue is very important, and what they have [00:21:18] told Talarico is that he has publicly [00:21:22] stated that, for example, God is binary, [00:21:25] so he has some issues there that evidently, [00:21:28] for a religious person or a conservative from Texas, make a lot of noise. [00:21:32] Paxton, well, he has been the Attorney General. The reality is that [00:21:36] Texans adore Paxton, right? That's why he has the numbers [00:21:39] he has had, right? The particularly Republican, obviously, [00:21:42] but it's a state where the majority has been [00:21:46] conservative. What has happened interestingly in Texas [00:21:50] is that it has been a state that has been changing its demography because [00:21:52] cities like Austin and other cities have brought industries [00:21:56] from California, they have brought from New York, so it is one of the states that [00:22:00] has had the most internal migration. So those who come from California, those who [00:22:04] come from New York are no longer those conservatives who used to [00:22:07] vote in the state, right? So the demography has changed, that's why you see [00:22:11] cities that are now Democratic, right? The city, for example, of [00:22:14] Houston is Democratic, San Antonio, Austin, [00:22:18] right? And this has changed the demography [00:22:22] particularly in the cities, but here what counts is the vote outside the [00:22:25] cities, that's why what Trump has done, if we analyze it in [00:22:29] detail, is that he has looked for the voter who is in the countryside, [00:22:32] right? Because those are his loyal followers, but [00:22:36] he has to motivate them to go, because just like Raquel said, when [00:22:40] it changes from Cornyn to Paxton, there are those who are for Cornyn, they don't [00:22:44] like that change, right? There are, and that, well, [00:22:47] evidently can make them not want to go out and vote, and if they don't [00:22:51] vote, well, that's evidently a political cost for the Republican [00:22:55] party, right? But this is particularly important [00:22:59] because Texas is the Republican stronghold, just like California is the [00:23:02] Democratic stronghold, right? So hitting the Republican stronghold, [00:23:06] and that's why they spend so much on campaigns, both Talarico [00:23:09] and Paxton. Part of the campaign is [00:23:13] to throw dirt at the opponent, right? That is, Talarico [00:23:16] doesn't not throw dirt at Paxton, and Paxton throws dirt [00:23:20] at Talarico. That's normal in a race like this, so the important thing we're [00:23:24] going to have to note is how this race ends and how [00:23:27] close the margins are, right? That is, if the Republican party manages [00:23:31] to keep Texas, how close those margins are and if they have [00:23:34] narrowed for the Republican [00:23:38] party and if the Democrats have grown. Yes, no, and also for a [00:23:41] possible post-election conflict, well, the ideal would be [00:23:44] large distances, right? To avoid that kind [00:23:47] of suspicion and so that it is very difficult to revert an electoral process, I think [00:23:51] that would be the key. The problem is that it looks like that, what we see is a very [00:23:55] large polarization. I'm going to take a break and I'll be right [00:23:57] back [00:24:06] with [00:25:11] more. The need to migrate knows no age, many [00:25:14] say they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek [00:25:18] to go further north. [00:25:23] The Mexican army's anti-drone battalion consists of these [00:25:26] types of elements of inhibitors to take down drones [00:25:29] that have become a threat. The [00:25:33] Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling [00:25:36] point. This is one of the illegal crossing [00:25:40] points for cattle that goes from Central America to [00:25:43] Mexico. Thousands of protesters, workers from this [00:25:46] country, left at 9:30 in the morning from the [00:25:50] Angel of Independence. I am in the municipality of Teuchitlán, in the [00:25:54] Mexican state of Jalisco. Here, the discovery was [00:25:57] macabre by groups of people searching [00:26:00] for the disappeared. [00:26:02] What made you come here with the suspicion that your son might be on this [00:26:06] ranch? [00:26:10] Live from Mexico [00:26:12] City, [00:26:15] a story can change everything, a look at the efforts [00:26:19] to rebuild a city and the hope of a people determined [00:26:22] to rise again. It evolved very quickly and we never thought it [00:26:26] would reach category five. And to understand what [00:26:29] is happening, we go with my colleague and... de Molinares to [00:26:33] Washington. [00:26:35] The explosion, we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire [00:26:39] facade. We hear the protagonists, they [00:26:43] mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43, [00:26:46] where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this [00:26:50] Mexican air force plane bound for Romania to [00:26:53] have a complete vision. We are here as [00:26:56] migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great [00:27:00] stories to discover and many. [00:27:03] Perspectives with Mario González, Monday [00:27:07] to Friday on CNN. [00:27:10] I am Mexican-British, I have been practicing [00:27:14] journalism for 20 years in Mexico City, in the United [00:27:18] States and now in Miami for CNN. 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[00:28:13] We continue in Mexico opina Marc, let's see, you also wanted to make a point about the state [00:28:17] of Texas, yes, it's that well, the Latino vote in Texas is [00:28:21] quite important, and the [00:28:25] position of Latinos in every nation, even [00:28:28] in Texas, has changed a lot in relation to Trump. It's [00:28:32] that, well, 2 years ago many [00:28:36] of many said that, ah, [00:28:39] yes, yes, yes, the Republicans are competitive [00:28:43] in in relation to the Latino bloc, [00:28:46] but not anymore. - It has [00:28:50] returned to the [00:28:52] normal percentages [00:28:55] or perhaps more for the [00:28:58] Democrats. Well, and partly, as Mark says, the Hispanic [00:29:01] vote in Texas is very important because it's practically a third [00:29:05] of the population, a topic that frustrates me [00:29:08] with Hispanics, being Mexican-American and [00:29:12] also living in Houston, is that they don't go out to vote, no, [00:29:15] I mean, vote Democrat, vote Republican, but go out and [00:29:18] vote so that your vote, so that your voice counts, and that's what sometimes [00:29:22] happens with the Hispanic vote, particularly the Mexican-American vote, which is the largest, [00:29:25] no, the Mexican-American, in the United States [00:29:28] there are almost 40 million citizens, if they went out to [00:29:31] vote, well. Obviously the politicians of both parties would pay [00:29:35] a lot of attention to them. Now, what will happen in South Texas is an important [00:29:38] part because you have key congressional districts [00:29:42] that can make a difference for either party, that's why President [00:29:45] Trump was just in Corpus Christi a couple of days ago. I [00:29:49] was in the valley, in what they call the valley in Harlingen, Brownsville and [00:29:54] what Mark was just saying, it's an atmosphere of [00:29:58] wanting to be strong, very rich there, so we'll see how much [00:30:01] he can combine that part. We saw with [00:30:05] Beto O'Rourke, for example, El Paso is one that [00:30:08] Beto conquered, so this [00:30:11] behavior of Hispanics in the strip, let's say, in the border [00:30:15] strip, will be very interesting to follow because they did vote for [00:30:18] Donald Trump, so if they don't vote, it will be an important protest vote for Donald [00:30:22] Trump. Now, I think there's something interesting about [00:30:26] why he lost so much Latino support. We would have to [00:30:30] see, mainly, we have to take into account [00:30:33] that Americans, and I think all people in the world who live in democratic [00:30:36] countries, vote with their wallets, how am I doing [00:30:40] economically, how do I feel in the kitchen when I'm cooking for my children [00:30:44] and I don't have enough to give them, how do I fill up with diesel [00:30:48] or gasoline, the [00:30:51] me work, produce, all those things [00:30:54] are important. Well, that's one of the reasons why Latinos stopped [00:30:58] voting, but another...