TELEARUBA — broadcast 20261102 073000 UTC 474 transcript segments Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] Republican Party candidates for Trump's party for 2028, for the [00:00:03] 2028 presidential elections. If Trump loses these [00:00:07] elections, [00:00:09] the vice president or Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State or [00:00:12] who? Well, the first thing I would say is that next Wednesday, [00:00:16] the Wednesday after the elections, will be the first day of the 2028 [00:00:20] elections, and soon we will see how the [00:00:24] answer to that question begins to emerge. Rubio and Vance are [00:00:28] obviously the favorites, and soon we will see their strategies, [00:00:31] and to my surprise, Vance seems to be [00:00:34] distancing himself more from Trump, not much, but more than [00:00:37] Rubio. Rubio is being Trump's silent accomplice, [00:00:41] especially in foreign policy. He has been very discreet in [00:00:44] domestic politics. He has spent a lot of time physically [00:00:47] close to Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if he continued [00:00:50] to do so. To compensate, he doesn't have Trump's [00:00:53] aggressiveness or Vance's, but perhaps he wants to give the impression that he is [00:00:57] more likely to continue with the policies of [00:01:00] tariffs and others than Vance. Vance has already [00:01:04] made it clear that he doesn't entirely agree with the war with Iran, and [00:01:07] he could well start to distance himself in other areas too. That [00:01:11] is, if this had happened 20 years ago, neither of [00:01:14] the two candidates would have been considered a defector from the incumbent [00:01:18] president, but this president is very sensitive, and the [00:01:21] MAGA universe is very sensitive, even to the [00:01:25] slightest deviation from what Donald Trump wants, and [00:01:29] so far we see, we see that Vance deviates a little more than Rubio, and [00:01:32] that is probably what we will see, at least during the [00:01:35] first few months after the elections, while [00:01:38] both try to understand the situation. That [00:01:42] is interesting, because the general opinion is the bet that Vance [00:01:45] is the MAGA candidate, Trump's movement, and that Rubio [00:01:49] is a kind of traditional [00:01:51] Republican. That's true, and maybe I'm [00:01:54] wrong, but I think the interesting thing is to observe what they say [00:01:57] and do now, and what they are [00:02:00] doing now is, in my opinion, quite different from the image of Rubio as a kind [00:02:03] of country club Republican and Vance as a more [00:02:07] combative type. Perhaps those are their personalities, but [00:02:11] I expect Rubio to really distance himself from the president, and I [00:02:14] don't see it. How do you see the Democrats for the 2028 [00:02:18] presidential elections, the day after [00:02:21] these midterm elections, who [00:02:23] will run for president? Well, I think that [00:02:26] as of November 4th, [00:02:44] integrate society. [00:03:00] he is also a moderate Democrat who also has the potential to be a kind of [00:03:03] delicate balance in relations [00:03:05] So, regardless of with Israel. So I suspect that in the first [00:03:09] few weeks after this election on the Democratic side, it will look [00:03:13] like a big tent, a big tent of more moderate [00:03:16] Democrats who can attract large state audiences and [00:03:20] some leftist-type Democrats. Bernie Sanders [00:03:23] is too old to run for [00:03:25] president. [00:03:30] He represents a district in the House of [00:03:33] the tension, and we don't Representatives, and we haven't had a member of the House of Representatives who has been president in the United [00:03:37] States since the 19th century. So I think [00:03:40] someone will realize that the viable and interesting candidates, [00:03:43] the potential candidates who are getting a lot of attention, are [00:03:47] the more moderate ones. Professor [00:03:50] Stuart, thank you very much for your time. We have to go to a break. When we come back, we will continue [00:03:54] analyzing what can happen in the crucial midterm [00:03:56] elections on Tuesday in the United States. Don't go away. Thank you, we'll be right back. [00:04:18] support to change some things in [00:04:36] Every night there is the possibility of an [00:04:39] unfiltered bombing. They should not [00:04:42] treat our young people like that anywhere. [00:04:46] Here it is asked, is there freedom of belief in the country? In [00:04:49] Spain, it is heard that this type of phenomenon is not [00:04:53] what generates change, they are the expression of a change, and [00:04:56] it is debated. Its foreign policy will [00:04:59] 5. And to understand what be like this. Conclusions with [00:05:02] Fernando from Monday to Friday on [00:05:05] CNN. [00:05:09] To understand the world, you need to seek the truth. [00:05:13] Let's go back to the time when we had to be much more [00:05:16] human, that's why we follow the facts, wherever they [00:05:19] lead us, no matter how far we have to [00:05:23] go, from the internal story, there are new [00:05:26] statements from President Donald Trump, to an external [00:05:29] perspective, we delve into the data, ready for whatever [00:05:33] comes. Lorenzo was shot by an immigration [00:05:36] agent, we face the world. Is it [00:05:39] legal for a 3-year-old child to appear alone? Find [00:05:43] joy in new perspectives and new [00:05:46] horizons, every day, no matter where [00:05:50] life takes you, we follow what matters [00:05:53] to you, we forge a path to truth [00:05:57] and understanding of the world. [00:06:25] Everyone would say, well, it's gold, for me, my first medal [00:06:29] is my bronze medal, so it has a very special [00:06:32] sentimental value to be the first of my career. I'm very [00:06:35] happy, it was a race that I really enjoyed. Thank God, [00:06:38] I got the bronze medal, and with that [00:06:42] I had a bonus for the other medals. In my mind [00:06:46] it was, I have nothing to lose and everything to gain. I can [00:06:49] already get a medal, why not get more? Each one has its [00:06:53] value, it was a turning point for this competition, yes I can, [00:06:57] I want more and I'm going for more, no, and well, thank God, [00:07:01] I got gold, I got silver, and we're going back to Mexico very happy [00:07:04] with three medals. [00:07:16] I'm Sale Merghi in Tel Aviv, we are [00:07:20] CNN. [00:07:26] Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing what can happen in Tuesday's elections in [00:07:30] the United States and what will happen next, because the day after [00:07:33] these midterm elections the race for the 2028 [00:07:37] presidential elections begins. We have [00:07:39] with us Michael McDonald, director of the [00:07:43] U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida. Let's go with [00:07:47] him. Professor McDonald, thank you for being with us. Well, all the [00:07:50] polls indicate that the Democrats will do very well in these [00:07:54] midterm elections, but how [00:07:57] reliable are these polls? Because in the [00:08:00] Brazilian elections last Sunday, they [00:08:03] messed up. How accurate are these polls [00:08:06] that predict a Democratic victory on Tuesday in the United [00:08:10] States? I analyze electoral data, so what I do is [00:08:14] consider all factors, not just look at polls. [00:08:17] We can deduce from history that [00:08:21] Democrats will do quite well in these elections. Generally, [00:08:24] in a midterm election, when the president's approval is very [00:08:28] low, the other side has a very favorable [00:08:31] election year. So we start from there, from what [00:08:34] we consider the fundamentals. Then [00:08:37] we analyze the polls and see where they stand, and [00:08:41] they also seem to suggest that there has been a shift towards more [00:08:44] Republican states in terms of where the most closely contested [00:08:48] races are. You don't have to believe me, you can analyze [00:08:52] the campaigns and see where they send their representatives. [00:08:56] For example, President Trump went to Mississippi, a traditionally [00:09:00] Republican state, to campaign and try to [00:09:03] secure votes for the Republican candidate. That is [00:09:07] very unusual and would only happen if the [00:09:10] election race had leaned towards the. [00:09:21] I also see it in the data, so according to several [00:09:24] indicators, the election seems to be leaning towards the [00:09:27] Democrats. Were the polls accurate in [00:09:30] the 2018 and 2022 [00:09:33] midterm elections? [00:09:36] Well, yes and no. That is, polls have [00:09:40] a margin of error. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, [00:09:44] and there is usually a margin of error, but that error, if [00:09:48] we analyze the long history of polls, sometimes goes in the [00:09:51] direction of the Democrats, sometimes in the direction of the [00:09:54] Republicans. In fact, I suspect that right [00:09:57] now the polls probably underestimate the [00:10:01] Democrats' chances, and I say this because the [00:10:04] polls are based on what pollsters believe the 2026 [00:10:07] electorate will be. So the [00:10:10] polls may be favoring the Democrats. Yes, [00:10:14] the polls are too optimistic about the [00:10:17] Republicans. If we make a comparison with 2022 [00:10:21] and think about the electorate of that year, we could think that [00:10:25] the current electorate in 2026 is similar to that of [00:10:28] 2022, but that was a good year for the [00:10:31] Republicans, and this one, according to all the data [00:10:34] we can analyze, polls, early voting, the [00:10:38] direction the campaigns are taking, seems to be a very [00:10:41] good year for the Democrats. So [00:10:44] if you think the electorate is going to be like in 2022, [00:10:48] you are making a mistake, a mistake that will favor [00:10:51] the Republicans, so you are overestimating. [00:10:58] From what we know about early voting and mail-in voting, [00:11:02] will there be a high turnout in these elections? [00:11:06] Yes, definitely. When comparing current turnout with [00:11:10] that of 2018 and 2022, I see that it is similar to that of [00:11:14] 2018. This is very significant, as the [00:11:17] 2018 elections recorded the highest [00:11:20] turnout in a midterm election since [00:11:23] 1914. [00:11:35] Well, I can analyze who is voting right now. It's not [00:11:39] about polls, but about early voting data, and [00:11:42] we have data by states with party registrations. I can [00:11:46] see which party votes more and which less, and I can say that [00:11:50] Democrats and independent voters, people who do not have [00:11:53] party registration, are voting at much higher [00:11:56] levels than in 2022 or 2018, [00:11:59] but Republicans are either [00:12:03] very similar to those in 2022 or even [00:12:06] lower in some states. So we are [00:12:10] not seeing as much energy among Republicans as among Democrats [00:12:14] and independent voters. And there's another really [00:12:17] important point. We have data on race and Hispanic [00:12:21] ethnicity in a couple of states, and I can analyze [00:12:24] who votes in that category, and we can see that the electorate [00:12:28] will be much more diverse than in 2022 or [00:12:31] 2018. African Americans and Latinos [00:12:34] in astonishing numbers, two or three [00:12:37] times more Latinos voting than in 2022 or [00:12:40] 2018. That's what is happening right now. [00:12:44] If this trend continues, the 2026 elections [00:12:48] will have the most diverse electorate we have ever [00:12:51] had in the history of the United States for a midterm election. [00:12:55] Wow, tell me something about the day after these elections. Everyone will [00:12:59] be reading results and especially within the Democratic [00:13:03] party, seeing how the moderates did and how the [00:13:06] socialist Democrats did. What should we [00:13:09] look at to see how that will affect the [00:13:13] Democratic candidacy in [00:13:16] 2028? Well, I think the big question we have right [00:13:19] now is the control of the U.S. House of Representatives. We can see that [00:13:22] the Republicans have strategically withdrawn [00:13:26] from some House races, which [00:13:28] practically guarantees that the [00:13:32] Democrats will get a majority. The question [00:13:35] is, how wide will that majority be? If it is very [00:13:38] narrow, it will make it difficult to govern in the House, but [00:13:42] if it is larger, it will give the Democrats some room to maneuver [00:13:45] in their management. In the state, we all want [00:13:48] to know, as there are many very close Senate races, [00:13:52] and Republicans currently have the advantage. [00:13:56] Uh-huh. For Democrats to get a majority in the Senate, according to [00:13:59] the polls, they need to win some close races in traditionally [00:14:03] Republican states, and they could do it. The polls suggest [00:14:06] it's possible. In that case, we want to know if Democrats [00:14:09] get a majority, and just like in the House of Representatives, [00:14:13] we want to know the size of that majority, because even a [00:14:17] difference of one or two senators is a very precarious [00:14:21] margin. I think that will be [00:14:24] what people will focus on next. It is possible that by [00:14:28] Wednesday there will be elections that have not yet been decided because of how [00:14:31] close they are. Therefore, I would not be surprised if [00:14:35] on Wednesday we are waiting for more votes to be counted in some [00:14:38] states, which could determine who will control the [00:14:42] U.S. Senate. Would you [00:14:44] be surprised if President Trump challenged or did not [00:14:48] recognize the elections in such and such a state, saying that [00:14:51] they were supposedly fraudulent and [00:14:55] accept them? What could happen? Well, he has already [00:14:59] done so throughout his political career, so I would not be surprised if [00:15:02] he continued. And he is already giving signals in that regard. The [00:15:05] Department of Justice has already initiated lawsuits, although the one in [00:15:09] California has not progressed much, it has had some unfavorable [00:15:11] rulings. But in California and Washington, the [00:15:15] Department of Justice alleges that the vote of non-citizen [00:15:18] people could influence the elections. In [00:15:21] Alaska, there is a complaint about a candidate who has the same name [00:15:25] as the current Republican senator, and the Department of Justice states that this [00:15:29] could generate confusion among voters. But remember that in [00:15:32] Alaska that issue already arose about two months ago and [00:15:35] reached the Supreme Court, where it was asked whether that candidate, Dan [00:15:39] Sullivan, with the same last name Sullivan as the current senator, [00:15:43] should or should not appear on the ballot, and the answer from the [00:15:46] U.S. Supreme Court was affirmative. So I don't [00:15:50] think that lawsuit will prosper, but what it is doing [00:15:53] is laying the groundwork for possible legal challenges, [00:15:57] and if, for example, control of the Senate depended on the outcome of the [00:16:01] elections in Alaska, what will happen to the lawsuit? Perhaps [00:16:05] a lost lawsuit, but you could. [00:16:07] It's there simply to obstruct the process, to delay as [00:16:11] much as possible the achievement of a Democratic majority in the [00:16:14] Senate. But do you foresee a scenario in which Trump says I don't recognize [00:16:18] any of the results, these elections were fraudulent? Well, his [00:16:22] Justice Department is already giving signs that it will present that argument in [00:16:26] three states, so I suspect that if Trump could present [00:16:29] that argument, he would do it. Would he succeed? I don't [00:16:33] think so, unless something really abnormal happened in the elections. [00:16:38] But right now nothing like that is happening, and the courts have already [00:16:42] ruled against the claims that Trump is currently [00:16:45] making. I suspect that the courts will not look favorably on that [00:16:49] type of accusation if it goes to court. If [00:16:53] Trump loses one of the chambers of Congress or both chambers of [00:16:56] Congress, do you think that will make him more moderate, [00:17:00] that is, more inclined to dialogue with [00:17:04] the opposition or more extremist in the two [00:17:08] years he has left in his term? You are asking me to get [00:17:11] into Trump's head, and that is something I don't want [00:17:13] to do. I have no way of knowing. Professor [00:17:17] McDonald, thank you very much for your time. We have to go to a break. When we come back, my [00:17:21] To understand the world, elections in the United States and what comes [00:17:25] next. Don't go away, we'll be [00:17:27] right back. [00:17:33] You have 5 minutes, we have five things for you, [00:17:36] a podcast with the five most important topics of the day, [00:17:40] just ask your smart device, give me the latest [00:17:43] news from CNN. Next, I'm going to tell you the five things [00:17:47] you need to know at this time. 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Let's not talk about other chapters such as [00:18:51] equality between men and women, such as [00:18:55] working conditions, such as the distribution of wealth, which is [00:18:59] one of the problems that globalization has had, that is, well, [00:19:02] you have to be thinking about a distribution of wealth that [00:19:05] works and does not create tensions, that part of [00:19:10] have time for that, of recent times is [00:19:14] very, very based on that tension produced by the global economy. [00:19:17] by the global economy. [00:20:02] Would you like to have a healthier life? Join me to [00:20:05] discover new tips, the advances in science, and the current [00:20:09] methods that can help us improve our mind and [00:20:12] body in a consultation with Dr. Huerda, a CNN [00:20:16] podcast. Live from Mexico [00:20:20] City, [00:20:22] a story can change everything. A look at [00:20:26] the reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people [00:20:29] determined to rise. It evolved very quickly, and we never thought [00:20:33] it would become a Category [00:20:36] is happening, let's go with my colleague Ione Molinares to [00:20:40] Washington. [00:20:43] The explosion, well, we can see the dimension it had to take away the entire [00:20:46] facade. We hear the protagonists. [00:20:50] They mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43, [00:20:54] where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this [00:20:57] Mexican Air Force plane bound for Romania to [00:21:01] have a complete view. We are here as [00:21:04] migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great [00:21:08] stories to know and many perspectives to analyze. [00:21:11] Perspectives with Mario González, Monday to Friday [00:21:14] on CNN. [00:21:18] I'm Juan Carlos López, welcome to Clash of Opinions. [00:21:22] Diplomacy, you know well, what is said in private is not what is said in public, well [00:21:26] here we know what is said in private. [00:21:29] Clash of Opinions, Sunday on CNN. Hello, [00:21:33] I'm Annes Openheimer, I invite you to visit my YouTube channel, Openheimer [00:21:36] presents. If you register there, we will send you our programs [00:21:40] free every week after growing on CNN and my [00:21:43] columns and [00:21:44] comments. [00:21:48] I'm waiting for you, help us. [00:21:55] you need to seek the [00:21:58] truth. Let's go back to the time when we had to be [00:22:02] much more human, that's why we follow the facts [00:22:05] wherever they lead us, no matter how far we have to [00:22:09] go, from the internal story, there are new [00:22:12] statements from President Donald Trump, I take an external [00:22:16] perspective, we delve into the data, ready for whatever [00:22:20] comes. Lorenzo was shot by an immigration [00:22:22] agent, we face the world. Is it [00:22:26] legal for a 3-year-old child to appear alone before a judge? [00:22:29] Find joy in new perspectives and new [00:22:32] horizons, every day, no matter where [00:22:36] life takes you, we follow what matters [00:22:40] to you, we forge a path to truth [00:22:43] and understanding of the [00:22:45] world. [00:22:53] I am Mexican-British, I have been working as a journalist [00:22:57] for 20 years, in Mexico City, in the United [00:23:01] States, and now in Miami for CNN. CNN [00:23:04] América is a multiplatform program where you will [00:23:08] have information from all areas that will allow you to [00:23:12] understand the world from whatever angle you are looking at it. In [00:23:16] those 3 hours, you will not only have information from a political [00:23:19] and economic point of view, [00:23:23] but also health, from a women's perspective, but [00:23:26] above all, it is a space where we can have conversations, not [00:23:30] to polarize, but to [00:23:59] polls be right in indicating that the Democrats, that is, the opposition, will win [00:24:03] one or perhaps both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm [00:24:06] elections in the United States? That is, will [00:24:10] these elections mark the beginning of the end of the era of [00:24:14] President Trump's enormous power, or on the [00:24:16] contrary, will pollsters be wrong, will they mess [00:24:20] up as they were wrong in Brazil in the elections last [00:24:23] Sunday? Practically all polls in the United [00:24:26] States indicate that President Trump is very likely [00:24:30] to lose his majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps [00:24:34] also in the Senate. Even Fox News [00:24:36] polls, the network that usually sympathizes with Trump, [00:24:40] predict a Democratic victory. And [00:24:43] that would make Trump lose a lot of power, because the [00:24:47] Constitution does not allow him to be re-elected. And for [00:24:50] the first time in his term, in his second term, at least, he would not control [00:24:54] Congress. If Democrats win, [00:24:57] they could block Trump's legislative projects, they could [00:25:01] investigate corruption allegations against the president and his family, and [00:25:04] perhaps they could even get Republican [00:25:08] immigration policy and other issues. And if [00:25:11] Trump loses these midterm elections and his [00:25:15] popularity remains as low as it is now, many [00:25:19] legislators from his own Republican Party could distance [00:25:22] themselves from him in the remainder of his term because they will be [00:25:26] thinking about their own political future leading up to the 2028 [00:25:29] elections. So the big question is, will [00:25:32] the polls be right? [00:25:35] Electoral experts tell me that, well, there's always a margin [00:25:39] of error, but they are quite, quite confident in their [00:25:42] data. First of all, they tell [00:25:46] me the polls in the 2018 and [00:25:49] 2022 midterm elections in the United States [00:25:52] were quite accurate. Secondly, U.S. electoral [00:25:56] history shows that the opposition [00:25:59] party usually wins midterm elections. No matter [00:26:03] who is in the White House, Republicans or [00:26:05] Democrats, the opposition tends to win the [00:26:09] midterms. Thirdly, Trump's travel schedule [00:26:13] in recent days speaks for itself, and the states [00:26:15] where Republicans are putting more money into electoral propaganda [00:26:19] also speak for themselves. These are indicators [00:26:22] that Trump's own party is on the [00:26:25] defensive. President, has [00:26:29] been traveling to support candidates. [00:26:32] Republicans in states that until now were solidly Republican, [00:26:36] like Texas or Kansas, are on the [00:26:39] defensive trying to save their positions, instead of being [00:26:43] on the offensive, trying to win rival [00:26:47] districts, and besides all that, the electoral [00:26:50] crime in the United States could hardly be more [00:26:54] adverse for Trump. The price of gasoline is higher [00:26:57] than at the end of former President Joe Biden's administration. [00:27:01] The war between Ukraine and Russia, which Trump had promised [00:27:04] to end on the first day of his term, continues [00:27:07] its course, and the war against Iran, which Trump said would be an [00:27:11] excursion, his words of a few [00:27:14] weeks, has been going on for 8 months and shows no sign of [00:27:17] ending either. We must also not forget that Trump had promised [00:27:21] not to enter new wars, and in recent [00:27:24] weeks another element has been added, a new element [00:27:27] against Trump and his party: allegations of corruption in the [00:27:31] government. According to Fox News, [00:27:34] corruption has become, along with the high cost of living, the [00:27:38] number one concern of voters. [00:27:41] Many people are not comfortable with the fact that while prices [00:27:45] are rising and many cannot make ends meet, Trump's fortune has [00:27:49] skyrocketed. Look at this data that [00:27:52] we have previously given: Forbes magazine [00:27:56] says that Trump's fortune skyrocketed from [00:27:59] 3.9 billion dollars in 2024, that is, [00:28:03] the year before returning to the White House, to [00:28:06] 7 billion dollars in [00:28:09] 2026. You heard that right. It increased from [00:28:12] 3.9 to 7 billion dollars [00:28:16] in less than 2 years. What does [00:28:19] Trump say? He says that he did not commit acts of corruption, but that he [00:28:22] benefited from the rise in the stock market like many other [00:28:26] Americans. But well, as the leader of the Democratic [00:28:29] caucus in the House of Representatives told us on this program, [00:28:34] the Democrats are going to investigate all this. They are going to investigate Trump's businesses [00:28:38] and his family if they win these elections. For example, they want to investigate [00:28:41] his cryptocurrency businesses. [00:28:44] They want to investigate the $400 million plane that Qatar [00:28:48] gave him, which is still not clear if it will remain in the hands of the [00:28:51] US government or go to Trump's presidential library, meaning [00:28:55] to Trump. They want to investigate the presidential pardons of several [00:28:58] convicts, whose family and friends made donations [00:29:03] to Trump's campaign and personal projects. [00:29:08] the polls, Tuesday's elections will take place in [00:29:11] a very adverse climate for Trump. But [00:29:15] well, as we saw in Brazil last [00:29:18] politics you should never say never, everything is [00:29:21] possible, although all the indicators point to an [00:29:24] overwhelming victory for the Democrats. [00:29:28] Well, thank you for joining us. I invite you as always to my YouTube [00:29:31] channel. There you will [00:29:34] be able to see all our programs after they air on CNN, my columns and [00:29:38] articles. Thank you, until next [00:29:40] week. [00:29:45] Opentimer presents, brought to you by. [00:30:00] For more than 60 years, it has trained professionals with [00:30:03] quality education, innovating, experimenting, and [00:30:06] teaching entrepreneurship, combining international experiences, [00:30:10] technology, and a global outlook to think beyond any [00:30:13] border. And now you can also study online. [00:30:16] Discover your career, more than [00:30:20] a university, more than you expect. [00:30:32] We are CNN, the world leader in news. [00:30:46] Tuesday, October 27, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva [00:30:50] had double reason to celebrate. To the fourth [00:30:53] term he achieved, something unprecedented in Brazil, [00:30:56] was added his 81st birthday. His.