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[00:00:00] For over 60 years,
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[00:00:32] We are CNN, the world's leader in news.
[00:00:47] institutional actors of the Tuesday, October 27, and Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva
[00:00:50] had two reasons to celebrate the fourth
[00:00:53] term he achieved, something unprecedented in Brazil, his
[00:00:56] 81st birthday was added.
[00:01:00] Flavio Bolsonaro, about to lose his immunity, did not acknowledge the
[00:01:03] defeat, although he had said he would not, he finally went to
[00:01:07] the United States, just like his father in 2022.
[00:01:10] He did not have the support of his party, which did accept that Lula had won,
[00:01:14] although Flavio declared that he was the real president-elect
[00:01:17] of Brazil, his possible leadership over
[00:01:20] the opposition was left in doubt, as were the effects
[00:01:24] that Donald Trump's reception of him would have on the relationship between
[00:01:27] Brazil and the United States.
[00:01:31] Mass mobilization, a digital army, change in
[00:01:34] discourse, some of the reasons, experts say, for Lula
[00:01:37] to go from being 2.2 million votes behind in the first
[00:01:41] round to almost 4.5 million ahead of Bolsonaro in
[00:01:45] the second. But many questions remain on the table: how much
[00:01:49] governability will the president be able to guarantee? Does Flavio's departure
[00:01:52] open space for the traditional right, or will a new
[00:01:56] name from his family take
[00:01:58] stimulating people's fear the bet? What does it mean for the continent, the tension,
[00:02:01] Washington, Brasilia, and that this
[00:02:04] time there won't be a swing to the right? We will discuss
[00:02:08] Brazil's future today on Global Connection
[00:02:11] for CNN en Español.
[00:02:15] And we begin the analysis of the situation in Brazil with Amaro, who
[00:02:19] is the director of the communication school of the Ditulio Vargas Foundation.
[00:02:23] Thank you very much, Amaro, for speaking with CNN Chile and CNN
[00:02:27] en Español.
[00:02:34] gives this benefit to Flavio, I would like to ask you, Flavio Bolsonaro, leaves
[00:02:37] Brazil, what political effect
[00:02:39] does it have
[00:02:41] in Brazil, but also on his leadership? Does it
[00:02:45] damage him, victimize him, and therefore help him? What do you analyze
[00:02:49] about that? Well, the truth is that the events
[00:02:53] are eh happening at that moment,
[00:02:56] so there are many things that we don't know yet.
[00:03:00] But I think that an idea is
[00:03:03] generalizing in Brazil that from a political
[00:03:07] point of view for himself
[00:03:09] it has been an
[00:03:13] error because or a decision
[00:03:16] that diminishes his stature, right? Because
[00:03:21] from the perspective of Trump's he came out with 59% of the 59 million
[00:03:24] votes, almost
[00:03:26] 49%
[00:03:29] of the votes in the elections, that is, three or four
[00:03:33] days ago he was expected to be the new
[00:03:36] president and today, eh, not only
[00:03:39] does he lose the election but he leaves the country in
[00:03:43] an incredible
[00:03:45] way, like a scene from a movie script, and
[00:03:48] well, on the other hand, all his political camp,
[00:03:52] the right in Brazil, which was indeed very
[00:03:56] strengthened in Congress, and it must be said that
[00:04:00] his party, the PL, the Liberal Party, is today
[00:04:03] the largest party in the Chamber
[00:04:06] society. What of Deputies, it is the largest party in the
[00:04:09] Senate, so it would have all the conditions to
[00:04:13] be a very strong opposition
[00:04:16] and maintain his leadership, but
[00:04:19] now that he has been absent,
[00:04:23] the truth is that other actors, especially the governor of São
[00:04:26] Paulo and Michelle Bolsonaro,
[00:04:30] are starting to move to fill a political
[00:04:34] void.
[00:04:37] with Lula to Amaro, from that perspective, we have heard precisely, and we had commented during the coverage, that
[00:04:40] Tarcísio de Freitas, who is the governor of São
[00:04:43] Paulo, could
[00:04:45] So, for example, the presidents of indeed be a future leader, right? As long as the
[00:04:48] Bolsonaros were there, the question here is whether that right-wing, which is not as
[00:04:51] the data, ready for what radical as the one represented by the governor of São Paulo, will be the one that will
[00:04:55] predominate, if it will take advantage of this space now
[00:04:58] versus the... What do you
[00:05:01] think? Well, that's the
[00:05:05] key question, right? Because everything,
[00:05:08] in my perspective, everything will
[00:05:11] you. We follow depend on the strength that Bolsonaro
[00:05:14] senior will have in 4 years, in three or 4 years, because he is
[00:05:17] incarcerated, there was a
[00:05:20] prospect that in a Flavio government, his
[00:05:24] father would be pardoned, right?
[00:05:27] So he would return with a lot of force to the political scene,
[00:05:31] but all that has now changed, right? And the expectation is
[00:05:34] that he will remain
[00:05:37] incarcerated and well, with two of his
[00:05:41] children out of Brazil. Yes, the two most political, the two
[00:05:45] most vocal in the
[00:05:47] public discussion, so his voice is
[00:05:51] weakened, if not by his wife, right, by
[00:05:54] Michelle. So surely the
[00:06:00] right-wing camp expect that
[00:06:03] Tarcísio will be able to progressively
[00:06:05] assume this role of opposition
[00:06:09] leader. But if Bolsonaro manages to maintain
[00:06:12] his power in the
[00:06:15] right-wing camp, among his supporters, it is very difficult for
[00:06:18] him, on his own initiative,
[00:06:22] to transfer his
[00:06:24] political capital to Tarcísio, right?
[00:06:28] And from that perspective, why do you think the Liberal Party, which is Flavio
[00:06:32] Bolsonaro's party, did not support him in his claim and in
[00:06:36] his questioning of the integrity of the elections?
[00:06:38] Eh, they recognized, unlike.
[00:06:42] They recognized the result, they made criticisms, but
[00:06:45] they recognized it. Why do you think they didn't support him? People
[00:06:49] in Brazil who are opponents of
[00:06:52] Luis Ignacio Lulada Silva, did this claim make sense to them?
[00:06:56] Not so much given the difference of 4 million
[00:06:58] votes.
[00:07:00] Eh, eh, well, first of all,
[00:07:03] because eh it
[00:07:06] is a an an an indefensible
[00:07:08] position, right? That is to say, to say that there was an
[00:07:12] electoral fraud without any evidence, without any proof,
[00:07:16] is indefensible. Even the president of the
[00:07:19] electoral justice and the vice president of the electoral
[00:07:22] justice, both ministers of the Supreme Court,
[00:07:25] appointed, nominated by Bolsonaro's father 4
[00:07:29] or 5 years ago, eh,
[00:07:32] declared Lula the winner of the
[00:07:36] elections. So, eh, first of all, because there is no
[00:07:40] reason, there is no basis to maintain such
[00:07:44] a position and secondly,
[00:07:47] because the truth is that the entire right benefited from the election, of course,
[00:07:51] with the exception, of course, of the
[00:07:54] presidency, the highest office, it is evident, but
[00:07:57] his party grew in the
[00:08:01] Senate, it is a very strong party in the
[00:08:03] Senate, it grew in the Chamber, it has today a power that
[00:08:07] has not been seen in a party for about 40 years
[00:08:11] in Brazil. Of course. And it made many governors
[00:08:14] in very important states like São Paulo, which
[00:08:18] is not from the same party but
[00:08:21] it is, and in fact there are 28 senators,
[00:08:24] 121 deputies,
[00:08:28] there are seven governors. I ask you what
[00:08:31] capacity will Luis Ignacio Lula Silva have to
[00:08:34] govern with a parliament that shifted
[00:08:37] to the right, with mayoralties also, many of them in
[00:08:41] the hands of the opposition. With relevant governors
[00:08:44] as well, is there room for negotiation, right? With the
[00:08:48] center or with whom? Yes,
[00:08:52] well, eh, the truth is
[00:08:55] that the context that emerges from the
[00:08:58] elections is a difficult context for
[00:09:02] Lula, no doubt about it, but we must
[00:09:06] consider, first of all, that he begins his fourth term, he is
[00:09:10] an extremely experienced politician. Even in the
[00:09:13] position of president, right? That is,
[00:09:16] no one comes close to
[00:09:20] what he has, what he knows from
[00:09:23] his experience, but and besides that,
[00:09:27] the truth is that the right, Bolsonarism, grew
[00:09:30] above the center-right, not
[00:09:34] center parties as
[00:09:37] eh he mentioned
[00:09:40] the centrão. So these
[00:09:44] parties are interested in forming
[00:09:49] maintain their strength, to, as it were,
[00:09:52] isolate the more radical right.
[00:09:57] the Chamber and the Senate
[00:10:00] who in a Flavio government probably
[00:10:03] would not have the political conditions to remain in office in both
[00:10:07] positions, now they
[00:10:10] have approached Lula and made
[00:10:12] the bet on his re-election and surely they will
[00:10:16] be rewarded for that. Amaro,
[00:10:19] then I ask you, in terms of
[00:10:22] management, what will be the keys that will... determine
[00:10:25] if Lula manages to develop a good government or
[00:10:29] not, and if he manages to generate a new
[00:10:32] leadership and transfer that
[00:10:35] power? Well,
[00:10:39] eh, first of all, it is almost a consensus today in the
[00:10:42] Brazilian press and among specialists that we have an economic
[00:10:46] issue, right? The public
[00:10:48] debt shows a
[00:10:52] worrisome evolution, right? Not
[00:10:55] explosive, because it's not, but worrisome, and
[00:10:58] that is reflected in interest, very high interest
[00:11:02] rates, and that harms people, harms
[00:11:05] the economy. So there is a need to
[00:11:09] contain spending, expenses, and so
[00:11:12] he will have to build the political
[00:11:16] conditions for that after a very tough
[00:11:18] election. Eh, then I think
[00:11:22] that Lula's challenge is to find
[00:11:25] ways to
[00:11:28] attend to people on issues, on matters
[00:11:31] that were not or are not part
[00:11:34] of his history in
[00:11:38] government, that is, the most
[00:11:42] evident example is public safety. I close the final
[00:11:45] minute by asking you the following: When
[00:11:49] the days have passed for you, what were the keys,
[00:11:52] besides this digital strategy,
[00:11:55] Lula's digital army, what were the keys to his
[00:11:58] success? Well,
[00:12:01] surely popular mobilization, right? What
[00:12:04] we say here is that
[00:12:07] Flavio
[00:12:11] won the first round and how
[00:12:14] he took office, right? And that
[00:12:16] generated fear in people, and Lula's campaign was very successful
[00:12:20] in
[00:12:23] towards the unknown, towards the
[00:12:27] lack of confidence in Flavio's profile,
[00:12:29] and that generated more
[00:12:33] mobilization, electoral abstention fell by two
[00:12:37] points, something
[00:12:39] immense in Brazil, from the first round to
[00:12:43] the second round, and in the three weeks of
[00:12:46] campaigning from the first to the second round, the
[00:12:50] truth is that the streets filled with people who did not
[00:12:54] want in government, and that,
[00:12:56] added to the digital strategy and
[00:13:00] also to some government actions that Lula
[00:13:04] took, such as increasing the Bolsa
[00:13:07] Família, actions for small
[00:13:10] entrepreneurs, and all that, I think that together
[00:13:13] these actions
[00:13:16] managed to achieve an incredible and unprecedented comeback,
[00:13:19] really, in the history of Brazil.
[00:13:23] Digital strategy. Directed also by this congressman Andrés Llanones
[00:13:27] who has already emerged as a minister and even a presidential figure
[00:13:31] for the future, Amaro Grossi, director of the communication school of the
[00:13:34] Yetulio Vargas Foundation, thank you very much for joining
[00:13:52] I have been practicing journalism for 20 years
[00:13:56] in Mexico City, in the United States, and now in Miami for
[00:13:59] CNN. CNN América is a multi-platform
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[00:14:25] It is not to polarize, but to integrate
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[00:14:38] the facts. Here you will see what makes news and everything that
[00:14:41] impacts your daily life. CNN América with Rebecca
[00:14:45] Kelly, Monday to Friday on
[00:14:47] CNN.
[00:14:52] To understand the world, you need
[00:14:55] to seek the truth. Let's return to the era when we had to be
[00:14:59] much more human. That's why we follow the facts,
[00:15:02] wherever they lead us, no matter how far we have to
[00:15:06] go, from the internal story, there are new
[00:15:09] declarations from President Donald Trump, to an external
[00:15:13] perspective, we delve into
[00:17:10] And we go to the United States where Flavio Bolsonaro
[00:17:13] is to analyze, with Cristián Farías, journalist,
[00:17:16] lawyer, and also analyst of constitutional affairs, the
[00:17:19] situation of Flavio Bolsonaro, former presidential
[00:17:30] of Flavio Bolsonaro been received in the United States, from a political,
[00:17:33] diplomatic point of view? How has it been covered? Is it an issue or not
[00:17:37] an issue and among whom? It's very interesting because, as
[00:17:40] you well know, we are in the middle of a political campaign here
[00:17:44] as well. Next week there are midterm elections, the famous midterms,
[00:17:47] and well, they have paid attention to the issue, but not so much because many are focused
[00:17:51] on those elections, and well, yes, the Latino community, Hispanics,
[00:17:55] the media covering these elections have paid a lot
[00:17:59] of attention, but what has also attracted a lot of attention are
[00:18:02] the measures taken by the State Department,
[00:18:06] led by Marco Rubio, for Flavio
[00:18:09] Bolsonaro to arrive in this country and reach the United
[00:18:13] States safe and sound. And in that sense, the political effect that
[00:18:17] you think it can have,
[00:18:20] it is seen by Trump's supporters as someone ideologically
[00:18:24] close to Bolsonaro and therefore they support the
[00:18:27] decision, and on the other hand it is criticized, right? It
[00:18:30] doesn't have much relevance. What do you think? It's
[00:18:34] interesting too, because of course eh the right-wingers here, the
[00:18:37] MAGA supporters, those who support President Trump and support
[00:18:41] his allies, of course, they welcome Flavio
[00:18:44] Bolsonaro with open arms, but it must be emphasized that Flavio Bolsonaro is a person
[00:18:48] who is being investigated by the justice system
[00:18:52] of his own country, and it is interesting the contrast when you look at it
[00:18:58] domestic policy towards migrants, so-called criminals. He has a
[00:19:02] very harsh policy towards people who are not from this country who
[00:19:05] have committed crimes, and well, they deport them without even
[00:19:09] due process, and well, that all this happened so suddenly and so
[00:19:13] quickly, and that the Department
[00:19:16] of State, also the Department
[00:19:20] of Homeland Security, which is responsible for admitting
[00:19:24] people to this country, that it all happened so fast is like
[00:19:27] the opposite of how they do things here against undocumented migrants.
[00:19:31] And would you say that it is a good or a bad
[00:19:34] news for Trump and why? I draw the parallel because, for
[00:19:37] example, Miley's support
[00:19:41] for Flavio Bolsonaro, for some it was good
[00:19:44] news, but then in the elections, others maintain that no, that it ended up
[00:19:48] weighing him down, that it was not so good to have him
[00:19:51] in Brazil in the campaign, eh, some even say they
[00:19:55] now ask Miley through videos in Argentina
[00:19:58] to criticize him more, eh,
[00:20:02] some of Lula's supporters even thanked Miley for the gesture, so the question is whether
[00:20:06] it's such good news in the context of the midterm elections, in addition
[00:20:09] to Bolsonaro's arrival. Of course,
[00:20:12] honestly, I don't think it will have much influence, what it does show is that Trump
[00:20:16] does favors for his friends, he does it very easily, he has no problem using
[00:20:20] the state apparatus to grant that type of favors. It must also be remembered
[00:20:23] that many of the voters here in this country
[00:20:26] who do matter to Trump, such as the people who
[00:20:30] live in those states that produce soybean grains,
[00:20:33] that produce those inputs that are very important for the national
[00:20:37] economy, eh, many of them look a little
[00:20:40] dubiously at Argentina because Argentina, I don't know if you
[00:20:44] covered this issue, there was a certain problem regarding
[00:20:48] some, some. arrangements that this country made to buy
[00:20:54] greatly harmed the people who deal with
[00:20:57] that here, with soybean grains, etc., the farmers, and well, eh, from
[00:21:01] that point of view, well, these policies towards the outside that
[00:21:05] Trump has deployed to lower
[00:21:09] prices here, have not been very well received by the people here, so I don't know
[00:21:12] if people have that geopolitical view regarding what is happening in
[00:21:16] Brazil, also with Argentina, eh, but
[00:21:19] that many people in those states,
[00:21:23] like the states of Iowa, the states also in
[00:21:26] Wisconsin, in Michigan, which are those states that
[00:21:30] Trump won in 2024, but that, eh, this
[00:21:33] year it seems very possible that the president will lose
[00:21:37] seats in those states that are considered very
[00:21:40] reliable for his base and for the Republicans, that anything they
[00:21:44] do to make people doubt him more, well, this may not go well for him in
[00:21:48] that aspect. How do you evaluate the tension that
[00:21:51] could arise diplomatically between the United States
[00:21:54] and Brazil?
[00:21:56] Well, there are already many tensions regarding the relationship between
[00:22:00] the two countries, as is already known through reports made
[00:22:04] by the New York Times and other media, there has
[00:22:07] been that that kind
[00:22:10] of, there is a certain friction between both countries,
[00:22:14] especially Lula's government, because they have seen how the United
[00:22:17] States has tried to interfere in their
[00:22:21] elections by sending
[00:22:23] State Department personnel who were denied entry,
[00:22:27] there have been a lot of acts from the United States towards
[00:22:31] Brazil that further strain the situation. It must
[00:22:34] also be remembered that
[00:22:38] the relationship between the two countries regarding tariffs is not
[00:22:41] very good, tariffs have
[00:22:44] soared towards Brazil and from Brazil towards the United States,
[00:22:47] and well, I don't think this will improve the situation, and
[00:22:50] also remember that there
[00:22:54] is already a certain precedent regarding the United States
[00:22:58] granting political asylum to Flavio's brother. He is already here in the United States,
[00:23:02] he has already been granted political asylum, he is already a legal
[00:23:06] resident of this country, and it is expected that the process for Flavio Bolsonaro
[00:23:09] will also be very quick, and as I say, there is
[00:23:13] that tendency in this country to think that people who jump the line to
[00:23:16] obtain benefits, especially immigration benefits, are not
[00:23:20] well-liked here. That Trump
[00:23:24] I think that will also affect people's perception, especially because Trump came
[00:23:28] to power promising a firm hand on immigration,
[00:23:32] but when it comes to people with power, it seems there is no such firm hand.
[00:23:35] Now there is a third country that has not been mentioned much, and that is
[00:23:38] Italy, because both brothers have Italian
[00:23:42] passports, so even if their Brazilian passports
[00:23:46] were canceled, the truth is that they have another
[00:23:51] route, so to speak, to resort to. Exactly, that is, they have another
[00:23:55] route, they also have more relatives who are members
[00:23:58] of parliament there in Brazil, who were elected, and well, the
[00:24:02] reality is that the Bolsonaro family has a lot of power. I don't know
[00:24:06] why taking refuge here in the United States makes much sense
[00:24:10] politically speaking, I don't know how he can be leader of the
[00:24:13] opposition in exile or from a distance, and
[00:24:17] well, the point about Italy is also very good, that is, they have somewhere
[00:24:20] to go in a way that doesn't make it seem like Trump is doing
[00:24:24] him favors, and well, we'll see how things
[00:24:28] unfold, but we also have to see what will happen here in this country
[00:24:31] with the elections next week, because if the Democrats, the
[00:24:34] opposition party to Trump, manage to
[00:24:38] regain control of Congress, they can also conduct
[00:24:42] investigations through their committees to get
[00:24:45] to the bottom of the matter and see if there is really another reason, because it must be remembered
[00:24:49] that many of the things Trump does are not because he is a very
[00:24:53] good-hearted person, generally there are other
[00:24:56] things. The New York Times reported today that a Trump
[00:25:00] advisor, his name is Jason Miller, is very close to the Bolsonaros.
[00:25:04] Jason Miller is a communications advisor to Donald
[00:25:07] Trump, and well, from that side we would have to start looking
[00:25:11] at perhaps what is the relationship that exists between Jason Miller and the Bolsonaros, if there
[00:25:14] is any business relationship, because
[00:25:18] as I say, many of the things Trump does often have to do with
[00:25:21] connections in the economic world, in the business world, and if there is any
[00:25:25] kind of benefit, quid pro quo, well, there it is, there is
[00:25:29] a pending issue for Congress to investigate and learn more
[00:25:32] about it. Cristián Farías, thank you very much for joining
[00:25:44] from Mexico City.
[00:25:47] A story can change everything. A look at
[00:25:50] the reconstruction efforts of a city and the hope of a people
[00:25:54] determined to rise up, it evolved very quickly and we never thought
[00:25:58] it would become a category 5, and to understand what
[00:26:01] is happening, we go with my colleague Ione Molinares to
[00:26:05] Washington.
[00:26:07] The explosion, well, we can see the dimension it had, taking away the entire
[00:26:11] facade. We hear the protagonists, they
[00:26:15] mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43,
[00:26:19] where she lived, a bomb, we are about to board this
[00:26:22] Mexican Air Force plane bound for Romania
[00:26:25] to get a complete picture, we are here as
[00:26:28] migrants to progress and make this country grow, it is big.
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[00:27:46] I'm going with Yone Molinares to the Capitol,
[00:27:50] they have already approved the funds for the Department of Homeland
[00:27:53] Security. When there is a lot at stake, we cut through the noise
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[00:28:00] From decisions made in Washington
[00:28:02] to their repercussions throughout
[00:28:05] the United States, Latin America and the world. At what point
[00:28:09] are relations with the United States? Relations between the United
[00:28:13] States and Cuba have always been abnormal. Direct
[00:28:16] USA is that window through which you can enter the United States
[00:28:19] and see what is happening in this country. We follow the
[00:28:23] story from all angles to bring you the
[00:28:27] facts directly. Groups of pro-immigrants.
[00:28:30] filed a lawsuit from our studios in Washington, I am
[00:28:34] Juan Carlos López, join me live on USA from Monday
[00:28:38] to Friday on CNN.
[00:28:41] The need to migrate knows
[00:28:43] no age. Many say they want to reach Mexico
[00:28:47] City, but others seek to go further
[00:28:50] north.
[00:28:51] The Mexican army's anti-drone battalion
[00:28:55] consists of these types of elements of
[00:28:58] inhibitors to bring down drones that have become a
[00:29:02] threat. Chiapas authorities have detected
[00:29:05] a cattle smuggling point. This
[00:29:08] is one of the illegal crossing points for cattle going from
[00:29:12] Central America to Mexico. Thousands of
[00:29:15] protesting workers in this country left at
[00:29:19] 9:30 in the morning from the Angel of Independence. I
[00:29:22] am in the municipality of Teuchitlán in the Mexican
[00:29:25] state of Jalisco. Here the discovery was macabre by
[00:29:28] groups of searchers for disappeared people. What made
[00:29:32] you come here with the suspicion that your son might be on this
[00:29:35] ranch? Brazil will begin a new
[00:29:38] rancho?
[00:29:47] presidential period, but many are wondering what the new
[00:29:51] leaders are, we mention on the right or by Bolsonarism
[00:29:55] to the family itself, Michel, one of the members
[00:29:58] or perhaps the governor of São Paulo. and on the left by the workers'
[00:30:04] party, several names, among them,
[00:30:07] Andrés Llanones, the so-called general who led this digital
[00:30:11] army of Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, topics that we will
[00:30:15] also follow closely in a next global connection for CNN en Español.
[00:30:19] We are
[00:30:31] CNN, the world leader in
[00:30:34] news.
[00:30:40] Hello, I'm Richard Quest, we navigate. I
[00:30:43] love traveling the world, that's very
[00:30:46] good. And I'm not done yet.