TRTWORLD — Nexus 20260808 153000 UTC 514 transcript segments Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp) Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] You'll understand exactly where you [00:00:03] of are, round table on TRT [00:00:04] World. [00:00:10] The Balkans is at the crossroads of history. [00:00:14] foreign influence has always weighed heavily on the [00:00:17] people. The war in Ukraine [00:00:21] has tested the fragile [00:00:22] car. [00:00:28] As global powers consider. Their next steps, few take [00:00:32] into consideration what the people here [00:00:34] want, [00:00:39] across the Balkans on TRT [00:00:42] of World, [00:00:56] has a war launched to weaken Iran actually made it stronger. [00:01:00] A possible deal over the straight of hermus could give Tehran [00:01:03] unprecedented influence over one [00:01:06] of the world's busiest shipping lanes, but what would that mean for the Gulf, the [00:01:09] United States and global trade? I'll break it all down here on [00:01:13] Straight [00:01:13] Talk. [00:01:26] of [00:01:32] Hello and welcome to Straight talk. I'm Zenab Gokcha. After months of [00:01:36] war, blockades and a fragile [00:01:39] of ceasefire, details of a possible deal to reopen the straight of [00:01:42] hermus are beginning to emerge. Iran and Oman have [00:01:46] reportedly drafted a proposal that would give Tehran [00:01:49] unprecedented control over ships entering the strategic [00:01:52] waterway. Outbound traffic would leave through Armani waters, but the [00:01:56] biggest sticking point isn't navigation, it's money. [00:02:01] A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran wants to charge [00:02:05] ships between 5 and 7% [00:02:07] of the value [00:02:08] of their cargo. Oman is discussing lower fee [00:02:11] while Washington insists there should be no tolls at all. The [00:02:15] details surface just days after President Donald Trump warned [00:02:19] Iran it could face the biggest military attack since the second [00:02:23] world war, but he backed away, saying diplomacy deserved [00:02:27] a chance. However, Tehran denies any direct. negotiations with [00:02:31] Washington, insisting its talks are only with [00:02:34] of Oman, so could the US, Gulf states and the wider international [00:02:38] community accept a deal that gives Iran greater [00:02:41] control over one [00:02:42] of the world's most important shipping lanes, and what would that mean for the [00:02:46] balance of power in the region? For more, [00:02:51] of a joining me now from Muscat is Abdullah Babut, he is a professor of golf studies and [00:02:55] chair [00:02:55] of the state of Qatar for [00:02:57] of Islamic area studies at Wasedda University. from [00:03:01] of London, Neil Quillium, associate fellow at Middle East and North [00:03:04] Africa program of Chatham House, and from Ankara [00:03:08] Betul Akkash and assistant professor at Ankara [00:03:11] University. Thank you all for joining me. Now after weeks of [00:03:15] negotiations, we're finally seeing [00:03:19] reports that Iran and Oman have [00:03:23] agreed on the coordinates of a proposed shipping [00:03:26] route, that alone won't be enough to... open the straight [00:03:30] of homose, but abdullah, what do we know about [00:03:34] these details so far? [00:03:38] thank you Zainab and thank you Tarte for the kind [00:03:42] invitation. um, [00:03:45] what, what we haven't heard is the [00:03:48] official agreement or the news that has come out, at [00:03:52] least for me, I haven't heard it, but there has been [00:03:56] some announcement, especially from the Iranian side. that [00:04:00] they were close to an agreement from my [00:04:04] understanding is [00:04:06] that the negotiations have been taking [00:04:10] place now for some time, oman has [00:04:14] of rejected outright anything, any [00:04:18] Iranian [00:04:20] of proposal that will contradict with [00:04:21] of international law, and any [00:04:24] arrangement that needs to be done [00:04:28] for the... safeguard of [00:04:31] shipping and freedom of shipping in state of horm has to be [00:04:35] within the international law where oman is [00:04:38] a signatory to, so I think the Iranians are [00:04:42] coming to that idea now and they [00:04:46] understand the omani position and therefore they are trying to [00:04:50] find the midway [00:04:52] solution while keeping within the [00:04:56] international law, but also ' [00:05:00] trying to ensure that the straight [00:05:03] stays open for international navigation, [00:05:07] safe as [00:05:08] of well and also protected from [00:05:13] you in terms of environment or in terms of accidents and so on, and [00:05:17] there has been a talk of some kind of a [00:05:20] management organization to do so between Iran [00:05:24] and Oman, and I believe Oman is putting [00:05:28] the idea or suggesting the idea that this arrangement [00:05:32] should be inclusive of all the Gulf [00:05:36] states as well, so I think this [00:05:39] is more or less what is going to happen then Meanwhile there is going [00:05:43] to be there is a talk about [00:05:47] opening one line as it [00:05:50] were in the middle between the Omani course and the [00:05:54] Iranian course for international [00:05:57] shipping where Iran can monitor [00:06:01] ships that enter and Oman can and [00:06:05] Iran can monitor ships that exit the [00:06:08] gulf. This is understood to certain extent because Iran [00:06:12] is... very suspicious of [00:06:14] any us Israeli [00:06:17] attacks in the [00:06:21] future and I believe this is going to be just a [00:06:24] temporary measure that could be a [00:06:28] building block towards a more lasting [00:06:32] agreement and it will help implement the [00:06:36] memorandum of understanding that was signed between the United States [00:06:39] and Iran. so I I think [00:06:43] this is what is what what I can read from [00:06:47] that, so yes, this is being presented as a [00:06:50] temporary arrangement, but Neil, what [00:06:54] would determine whether Iran's [00:06:57] role is stays temporary or whether [00:07:01] it becomes a permanent feature to the [00:07:04] straight? I mean, I think it really [00:07:08] depends on the the movement of vessels [00:07:11] and I think... depends on both the omanis and the [00:07:15] Iranians being satisfied that th those vessels [00:07:18] are both monitored by by both countries and the [00:07:22] their transit through homose is [00:07:25] is is understood by both. I think I mean I [00:07:29] think that that's a key thing. We have seen obviously the [00:07:33] US and Iran come to the agreement on the with the memorandum of [00:07:37] understanding. Um, but there were details in [00:07:40] there that that were unclear. "and obviously the Iranians [00:07:44] felt that they still wanted to retain [00:07:48] sovereignty or not sovereignty but control over the vessels [00:07:52] coming in in and out of hormos, so [00:07:56] that that was not the case for them, that's what that's why they started targeting [00:07:59] ships that were passing through the omani channel, so so there [00:08:03] very much has to be a sort of buy in from from both [00:08:07] parties and the Iranians have to feel that they can sort [00:08:11] of exercise that" that that degree of influence that they want to continue [00:08:15] to have over homobus, precisely as Abdullah said, [00:08:19] because there is such a low level of trust primarily [00:08:22] between the Iranians and and the Americans, so so so that [00:08:26] level of comfort has to still be there, but but let's make no bones, I [00:08:30] mean Iran does not want to seed [00:08:33] Homus, it wants to retain as [00:08:36] much influence control over it as it can, [00:08:40] now in the short term and even over the longer [00:08:43] term, yes, so bet, where does this [00:08:46] leave uh, golf states, because they urgently [00:08:50] want shipping to turn back to normal, but on the other other [00:08:54] hand, Iran's role on the straight is [00:08:57] expanding, so would they accept a deal that heavily favors [00:09:01] Iran? um, [00:09:05] these tradeoffs actually villed for the both parties, [00:09:08] as Abdullah Babut mentioned earlier, Iran [00:09:12] also has to recheck its calculations for the state of [00:09:16] hermus, they have to sort of reach [00:09:19] deal which includes gulf partners, arabian gulf [00:09:23] partners, because if they would like to have sovereinity or [00:09:27] power over the state of hermus, this has to be done with the [00:09:31] both parties the or the hermus, [00:09:35] so this is a tradeoff for [00:09:38] Iran and for Arabian gulf countries, so there is a shared [00:09:42] interest when it comes to transferring energy sources, but [00:09:46] other all sort of other shipments. um, for the [00:09:49] golf um, there is not much options unfortunately at the [00:09:53] moment, they have done a lot [00:09:56] collectively so far, it because [00:09:59] the this was something they have been following up for the years, the [00:10:03] closure of straight of hermus is not something new for them, they actually had [00:10:07] lot of plans on that, they planned it in advance, they had [00:10:10] collective um forces under the peninsula shield [00:10:14] forces, they have individual navies to handle any sort of threats [00:10:18] in in the state of hermus, but obviously this was none these were [00:10:22] enough, even including the us of internet. [00:10:25] national organizations, international law, us [00:10:28] navy, none of this actually helped enough, so still we have this [00:10:32] issues in the state of hermus, so either they will accept the [00:10:36] fact that the entire the policy [00:10:40] of state of hermus will be at the end of Iranian sort of [00:10:44] insecurity, because they will decide on when to open, when to [00:10:47] close, or they will share the power on that, [00:10:51] unfortunately there is not much from the gulf side now, [00:10:56] to propose more on Iranian option, but [00:11:00] as you mentioned, I believe this could be a short-term solution, [00:11:04] once the threat perceptions have been, because now it's evolving, there are [00:11:07] still negotiations between the parties, once these [00:11:11] current and very, very serious insecurity post from Israel [00:11:15] and US on Iran reach a sort of [00:11:19] medium level or where when there there are more political [00:11:23] options to talk, this policy... might be might be changing, but [00:11:27] now there's not much option for the Gulf countries, they could [00:11:30] negotiate and they could talk with Iranians to reach level which can [00:11:34] actually satisfy somehow both parties, but this is the only [00:11:38] option obviously, otherwise there will be insecurity regime in the [00:11:42] state of hermus, yes, and when it comes to the US, [00:11:46] as much as it wants the straight to reopen, it's [00:11:50] also insisting a unrestricted toll [00:11:54] free. passage through the straight and Iran [00:11:57] wants the US blockade its ports to be [00:12:01] lifted, so up tolah, where might oman find [00:12:05] room for [00:12:06] compromise? [00:12:10] first of all, I'd like to echo what my colleagues have [00:12:14] said, both Neil and [00:12:16] Vitol, agree with what they have [00:12:20] mentioned that Iran has seen this sees this [00:12:24] as and it's not gonna easily [00:12:27] just let it go, and it's [00:12:31] and it's policies are creating a [00:12:35] problem for the gulf states as well as for the [00:12:38] international [00:12:42] navigation and trade and oil [00:12:45] markets and I i believe [00:12:48] that you know the Gulf states also feel that they have become a [00:12:52] hostage to this crisis. It's not something that they [00:12:56] have - wanted [00:12:59] and it was imposed upon them and they are bearing [00:13:03] the high cost for this crisis. [00:13:07] Oman obviously shares the straight of [00:13:10] hormos with Iran [00:13:14] and but Oman is signitary [00:13:18] to the Uniclos, the United [00:13:20] Nation agreement [00:13:24] on maritime, while Iran is not, [00:13:28] and Oman will not do anything that will [00:13:31] zabadize the international law, [00:13:35] and also has to take into consideration the interest of [00:13:39] all the neighboring countries, not only Iran but [00:13:43] also the other gulf states [00:13:46] include the GCC and also [00:13:49] Iraq, Iran has been pushing [00:13:52] for tall. [00:13:55] charging [00:13:56] toll for [00:14:00] in for for safe as [00:14:04] it were navigation in the water and Oman has refused [00:14:07] that completely and they told the Iranians we cannot accept this because [00:14:11] this goes through against international law. what oman [00:14:15] has proposed is from [00:14:18] what i understand or is or is proposing [00:14:22] is that there could be some kind of collective [00:14:25] arrangement whereby services can be [00:14:29] provided to shipping and [00:14:33] maritime and to ensure safety, to ensure [00:14:37] rescue, to ensure you know looking [00:14:40] after the health, but more importantly for the [00:14:44] environment and and of [00:14:47] course the the dissalination that the [00:14:51] Gulf states rely on, yeah. [00:14:55] and a political agreement will not [00:14:58] automatically bring commercial vessels back, [00:15:01] so Neil, what type of security assurance [00:15:05] do uh shipping companies need before [00:15:09] they can go back to use this new [00:15:12] route? yeah, that's a it's a very good and it's a very important [00:15:15] question, I think I mean I think it would take quite a long time, [00:15:19] we would we would see vessels um from the gulf states for [00:15:23] example passing through, we've already... seen an increase in emirati [00:15:27] vessels passing through, so so I think the gulf states [00:15:29] themselves would need to be chartering, would need to be using their own [00:15:33] vessels you to pass through the straight and and it would be... [00:15:38] almost sort of seen as a a confidence building measure, [00:15:42] so if if that happens [00:15:44] you know comfortably for for a couple of weeks that will indeed sort [00:15:47] of reassure some of those commercial vessels, but [00:15:51] but I think as Abdullah has said, this this initially would be a [00:15:55] short-term um kind of solution, but then that that that [00:15:59] would need to be building block to to the US and [00:16:02] Iran getting back to the mou, you to [00:16:05] utilizing that. and then putting some kind of security guarantees [00:16:09] and and and a framework around that [00:16:13] longer term and and again i like Abdullah's sort [00:16:16] of um connection [00:16:20] to you to to the to the coal and steel union of of of [00:16:24] Europe um the golf states and Iran could could [00:16:28] certainly build around that and utilize that but there would need [00:16:32] to be guarantees put in place from the US that the US [00:16:36] would not therefore continue to strike against [00:16:40] Iran, and likewise there would need to be guarantees from Israel [00:16:44] that it would not um strike Iran, so [00:16:46] that there are a lot of moving pieces that, but I think the Gulf states [00:16:50] themselves can be can actually sort of demonstrate [00:16:53] the, the safety of Homus once once it does [00:16:57] open, so let's say uh [00:17:00] Washington ultimately accepts a larger [00:17:04] Iranian role in hermus. to secure an [00:17:08] agreement, what would that mean for golf [00:17:11] confidence in the US [00:17:14] as the US is their main security [00:17:16] partner? as it [00:17:20] is actually mentioned, this is very complex and having very [00:17:24] different opinions from different gulf countries with their [00:17:28] alliances with us and and their negotiations with [00:17:32] Iran, but basically we can actually have two main [00:17:36] um approaches in the... discussions across the gulf countries when it comes to [00:17:39] your question, the first one, okay, US is the main [00:17:43] security ally, but we have seen diversification [00:17:47] of military support for the gulf [00:17:50] countries, imarati is agreed with Israel is, turkey, [00:17:54] turkey has military support to different gulf countries, we [00:17:58] have French, Italian, German involvement, we have China, Russia, so [00:18:01] gulf countries have been actually trying [00:18:04] to upgrade their security. [00:18:08] keeping us as the main alive, but having more options in terms [00:18:12] their security and defense policies. um, [00:18:16] when it comes to security of state of hermus and bringing [00:18:19] Iran with deal to sharing power [00:18:23] in in the state of hermus, obviously there will [00:18:26] be different lobbying [00:18:30] process with US, this will either [00:18:33] provide certain challenges to the gulf countries. [00:18:37] is that they have to actually um [00:18:41] provide story and understanding why they actually [00:18:45] have this with Iran to us, but I don't think this is dominant [00:18:49] understanding in the gulf countries because all these gulf capitals they [00:18:53] have been trying to re [00:18:56] rechannel their power in the region [00:19:00] since the post February [00:19:02] 28 attacks, they are trying [00:19:06] to indicate... that they are actually very critical vital power [00:19:10] houses of middle east, okay, they are allies of us, but this [00:19:14] doesn't mean that they will have more organic or regional [00:19:17] power cooperations or negotiations bringing other middle [00:19:21] eastern actors, [00:19:23] as they have done with regional four or with um [00:19:26] sideline talks with Iran, so they are trying to [00:19:29] indicate the like their policy to the US [00:19:33] that they are trying from their side to reach [00:19:36] level of long-term solution and [00:19:40] peace processes individually and collectively [00:19:44] in the Gulf while keeping US as a supportive [00:19:48] power to that. Okay, so Abdullah, from the perspective [00:19:52] the regional mediators, which side has [00:19:56] greater pressure on them, is it Washington or Tehran when it comes ending the [00:20:00] war? Well, the war started by [00:20:03] Israel and the United States while negotiations. [00:20:07] were still going and at that time oman [00:20:11] was in the middle of this negotiations and according to what we've [00:20:15] heard from the omani foreign minister in his public [00:20:19] speeches is that they were much closer [00:20:22] to an [00:20:23] agreement [00:20:26] and but unfortunately the attacks [00:20:30] happened i believe Iran doesn't won the [00:20:34] war - the war was started by the United [00:20:38] States, and I think the pressure should be now on the United [00:20:41] States to stop the war. Yes, we in the Gulf states, [00:20:45] we have issues with Iran, number of issues, political [00:20:49] security. etc. and we don't agree with some [00:20:53] their policies, but these things can be sorted out through [00:20:56] negotiations, through dialogue and we seen that there has been reproachment [00:21:00] between Saudi Arabia and Iran [00:21:03] and also other gulf states, so I [00:21:07] think what we need now is to ensure that the United States stops [00:21:11] it attacks on Iran because and put some pressure on [00:21:15] that front and and bring [00:21:19] Iran back. to where not only where it was, but also [00:21:22] to bring it more into some kind of [00:21:26] arrangement where it be plays a positive [00:21:29] role in terms of security and development the [00:21:33] region rather than destructive role that we [00:21:36] have and people are accusing it of. i think Iran is [00:21:40] ready to do so, I think their economy is suffering, I think their [00:21:44] country has been devastated by the attacks and I think [00:21:48] they... to be much [00:21:51] more integrated into the region, so this [00:21:55] could be a really good moment to bring Iran into that, [00:21:59] so yeah, the pressure more [00:22:00] in in the United States, but we also need to pressure Iran to be [00:22:04] more cooperative [00:22:07] within the within the region [00:22:10] and and to work towards the stability and the [00:22:14] security and the development the region, because we [00:22:18] are collectively facing... some similar challenges, whether [00:22:22] it is economic or political or security, [00:22:25] environmental, etc. and we some [00:22:29] the solutions to these challenges can only come [00:22:32] through regional cooperation, and this involves all [00:22:36] regional countries, including Iran, Turkey and [00:22:39] other neighboring states as well, so I i [00:22:43] think this war and this conflict and the [00:22:47] costs that we have ' endured [00:22:51] should give us now an opportunity to [00:22:54] think differently and and and and [00:22:57] to start relying on ourselves and start relying on [00:23:01] collaboration and and not to import security [00:23:05] but to have an indigenous security arrangement through [00:23:08] collective dialogue and agreements with [00:23:12] neighboring countries and that does [00:23:14] not exclude [00:23:18] you know working with the United States or other international [00:23:21] powers as well, but I think first and foremost [00:23:25] security has to come from within within the region and the [00:23:29] United States has still can still continue to play an [00:23:33] important role, but as been [00:23:36] saying earlier, there has been a challenge to that [00:23:40] because the changes that are happening anyway in [00:23:43] the geopolitics and geoeconomics [00:23:47] the world, yes and I want to... about one the [00:23:51] latest developments, actually because Turkia, Saudi [00:23:54] Arabia and Pakistan [00:23:56] reportedly uh, they expected to [00:24:00] sign defense agreement, so Neil, what [00:24:04] does this reveal reveal about Turkia's role in the [00:24:07] Gulf, in Gulf [00:24:08] security? I think what it [00:24:12] what, what it demonstrates is that the [00:24:16] US, first off has been unable to really... [00:24:20] you secure the states despite having this this long-term [00:24:23] relationship and and deep relationship with the gulf states, and [00:24:27] that a country such as Saudi Arabia is [00:24:30] looking, it it can't replace the US, but but it's [00:24:34] certainly looking to burden share if you like, for [00:24:37] regional uh security, and [00:24:40] it and it's looking to partners in the region, certainly [00:24:44] Turkey and certainly Pakistan as it as it moves [00:24:48] forward, um, I think as both... both my colleagues have you have alluded [00:24:51] to the US started this war and [00:24:55] in effect the Iranian response has been to um [00:24:59] breach the security of all six gulf states in in [00:25:03] varying forms and varying divisions. i think [00:25:06] that um relations between Saudi Arabia and Turkey have certainly [00:25:10] been warming over the past three or four years [00:25:14] and I think the the idea that Turkey [00:25:17] plays you know a more instrumental role in working with Saudi [00:25:21] Arabia and working with Pakistan to to build out or to [00:25:25] start to put in some building blocks, it's not an [00:25:29] alliance, and [00:25:30] it's it [00:25:31] is called the Mecca joint defense agreement, I don't think it's an alliance as [00:25:34] such, but these [00:25:35] are the block building blocks of new regional [00:25:39] security order, it doesn't preclude other other countries from [00:25:42] coming into place, but but certainly we have seen Turkey [00:25:46] playing much more sort of forward leaning role into. interregional [00:25:50] security and there are clear, shared strategic [00:25:54] interest between the three partners, all of which focus [00:25:58] on Iran, certainly [00:26:02] Israel. there's there's also the red [00:26:05] sea, the horn of Africa, I mean so so there are there are there [00:26:08] are a lot of shared interests in this in this sort [00:26:12] of uh this grouping, this this new [00:26:15] defense formation, [00:26:18] yes, Neil, Abdullah, Bitul, [00:26:22] unfortunately that's all the time we had, thank you all for joining [00:26:25] me, and [00:26:29] that's all for this edition of straight talk with me Zcha, if you've got... any comments, [00:26:33] please share them with us on X at Streight TRT. 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[00:27:39] there is nothing benying about illegal human smoggling. we look at the story, how [00:27:43] it's being told, who benefits, what others are leaving out and [00:27:47] why? it's always the elite to ask for it and the ordinary people who pay for it. [00:27:51] we're all you need to know, nexus on TRT [00:27:54] World. [00:27:57] intuitive, inclusive, informative from [00:28:01] the remotest reaches, To the teaming [00:28:03] Metropolises, the world is one click [00:28:06] away. [00:28:08] TRTworld.com. [00:28:12] A journey across a dynamic [00:28:14] continent. It's africans where to [00:28:18] be prosperous. Don't think about clans, don't think about tribes, think about [00:28:22] countries. We explore Africa [00:28:26] beyond assumptions. Discover diverse [00:28:29] perspectives. [00:28:33] witness captivating stories, all [00:28:37] to understand Africa better and why it [00:28:39] matters. Africa matters on [00:28:43] TRT [00:28:44] World, but why is it [00:28:48] Africaner only? I'm telling you today, [00:28:52] they are going to [00:28:52] live. [00:28:59] We got that flag down our throats. all [00:29:03] the time, you're not allowed to talk, oh no, that you [00:29:07] oh, that's [00:29:10] taboo, [00:29:15] it's supposed to be safety device, breathe in, breathe out and avoid the [00:29:19] fumes around you, they knew what day they would come [00:29:23] die, [00:29:27] if europe does not soon wake up, you face fear every [00:29:31] day. Is NATO [00:29:35] a competitor or a threat? NATO is a threat to [00:29:38] Russia. [00:29:44] Racism towards gypses and travelers is the last accepted form of [00:29:48] racism in this [00:29:49] country. We [00:29:53] were here yesterday, we're here today and we'll be here [00:29:56] tomorrow. Beyond borders on TRT [00:29:59] World. [00:30:16] and talks with Oman, Iran's foreign minister says his country is [00:30:19] very close to opening the straight of hormos. Hello and [00:30:23] welcome to TRT World, live from Istanbul [00:30:26] Amchi also on this program, united in [00:30:30] their defense. Turkey, Saudi Arabia. and Pakistan sign [00:30:34] new collective security pact. a [00:30:37] Unicef report says Palestinian children in Gaza have born the brunt of [00:30:41] Israeli attacks with one child killed daily since the [00:30:45] ceasefire last year, [00:30:48] and the risk for children in Sudan is also rising. A UN report [00:30:51] warns at least 8 million children are suffering due to the civil [00:30:55] war.