TRTWORLD — Newshour 20260915 150000 UTC 977 transcript segments Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp) Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] informative [00:00:03] of trtworld.com. [00:00:10] of of [00:00:17] of of You're watching TRT World, I'm Jafar Hustan, the headlines: [00:00:20] of three people, including two [00:00:22] a children have been [00:00:22] of killed in Saudi Lad [00:00:23] in coalition air strikes in Yemen's Thais province, that's according to huti run [00:00:27] media. The attacks come as Saudi Arabia says it will [00:00:31] respond firmly to hoouti [00:00:33] of of of of strikes that [00:00:37] in of injured 13 civilians in three Saudi cities. The United Nation says [00:00:39] of of fighting in Yemen has forced [00:00:40] of 125000 people from their homes since the start of this [00:00:44] month. We walked on foot at [00:00:47] a night after sunset from Mokha to Bawal Mandab. We were then [00:00:51] told [00:00:54] of in that the road was closed and that we had to return to Mokha. We appeal to the humanitarian [00:00:56] of organizations and the [00:00:58] of international in community to inter and provide shelter for these families [00:01:02] and ensure that they receive food, water, [00:01:06] clothing and [00:01:07] a accommodation. Iranian estate media says [00:01:11] of a drone strike has hit two Iranian fishing boats along the straight of [00:01:14] hormos, leaving several people missing. [00:01:17] in a separate incident, Iran's revolutionary guard says an oil tanker [00:01:21] exploded and caught fire after [00:01:23] of striking mines in the [00:01:29] of of waterway, but the US military dispute that account saying the of tanker was struck by Iraq [00:01:30] and rendered inoperable last month. In [00:01:34] Gaza, [00:01:35] Israely attacks have killed at least five people across the [00:01:40] of beseve. in [00:01:44] Another person was [00:01:45] of killed by sniper fire in [00:01:50] of of of Jabaliya. of in of Protests have turned violent in the Romanian capital as police tried to quell [00:01:53] in farmers unrest. They are demanding the government und do a ban on [00:01:57] livestock exports in [00:01:59] a of this case sheeps. and goats. The [00:02:01] of country has banned the exports after [00:02:03] a report showed high risk of [00:02:05] a deadly virus. The ban was first [00:02:08] in implemented only to European Union nations and now [00:02:11] of included non EU countries and is [00:02:14] of extended until December [00:02:15] of this year. A Russian drone attack killed [00:02:18] one person and knocked out power in parts of Ukraine Sapurizia and [00:02:22] Keiv's mayor said a drone hit a petrol station in the Ukrainian [00:02:26] capital early on Tuesday injuring one person. In the [00:02:30] Black Sea, vessels carrying military supplies to Ukraine were also hit, while [00:02:34] port infrastructure in Odessa also came under [00:02:37] of attack. That's all for now, the news continues here on [00:02:41] TRT World, do stay with us. A [00:02:45] new chapter in Afghanistan [00:02:51] of insurrection and even an attempt in coup are just to overthrow an in autoocrat. of You've seen the news. [00:02:54] a Essentially of Israel is [00:03:00] in a apartide in state, but the newsmakers did deeper. We have to stop. [00:03:01] of have a you failed. We take the day's biggest story and debate [00:03:03] of the issues behind the headlines. That's the whole point of [00:03:07] negotiation. They want a [00:03:08] of stake in the governance [00:03:09] of their. We bring you [00:03:12] a in-depth look at the events, conflicts and decisions that [00:03:16] impact [00:03:16] of us all. All of [00:03:18] of you a have of failed, [00:03:20] of of all The responsibility for dealing [00:03:24] with that falls to the United Nations Security Council. From every [00:03:27] corner [00:03:28] of the globe. If fighting continues, what [00:03:32] will there be left to fight for if hundreds of thousands of not millions of [00:03:36] people are left to [00:03:37] start? The newsmakers [00:03:41] on TRT [00:03:42] World. [00:04:00] "the EU is pumping billions into maritime defense to counter [00:04:04] of increased threats to its security, but will it be [00:04:07] enough to protect Europe's [00:04:09] sease? [00:04:13] a [00:04:15] of a [00:04:17] of [00:04:29] of of hello and welcome to roundtable, I'm Inter Brady, now in securing Europe's vast [00:04:29] in waters. is becoming an urgent priority for the European Union and [00:04:33] NATO as tensions with Russia escalate. The world's oceans [00:04:37] hold [00:04:37] of complex systems of [00:04:38] of of of critical infrastructure from subsea data cables to energy pipelines [00:04:42] and global trade roots, all of which makes them highly [00:04:46] vulnerable to hybrid attacks and [00:04:48] sabotage. [00:04:52] non UK marine commando sees a Russian shadow fleet oil [00:04:56] tanker. Another is intercepted in Belgium. [00:05:00] sailing under false flags, such vessels are suspected of smuggling [00:05:04] oil and secretly mapping under-sea [00:05:06] infrastructure, and incidents are [00:05:10] of becoming more frequent last week, Nato allies foiled a [00:05:14] Russian submarine plot to damage undersea [00:05:16] cables. The EU and NATO are warning [00:05:20] of increased hybrid attacks from Russia. [00:05:23] Europeans are faced with the hard truth [00:05:27] that this is the new normal. We must treat our [00:05:31] everyday infrastructure as frontline targets and [00:05:35] protect them accordingly. Allies are united [00:05:38] in their commitment each other to our collective. [00:05:42] defense and we are clear about how [00:05:46] important it is that we work together, including with the [00:05:50] European Union, to ensure we have what we need [00:05:53] to address the threats we face. [00:05:57] 90% of Europe's trade, energy and digital data moves [00:06:01] through its seas, to protect them from above and below [00:06:04] water, the EU has spent 130 billion dollars on [00:06:08] maritime defense over the past decade, France, Germany, [00:06:12] Italy and Spain lead the way, building new ships, submarines [00:06:16] and autonomous underwater drones. More will be [00:06:20] invested as part of Brussel's Readiness 2030. The [00:06:24] EU's $200 billion dollar plan to become more [00:06:27] self-sufficient and less reliant on the United [00:06:29] States. [00:06:34] The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed European defense [00:06:37] strategy, [00:06:39] and while drones fill the skies there, and... scene battle is [00:06:43] developing underwater which could damage, disrupt and even [00:06:47] take down Europe's vital [00:06:49] infrastructure. Well, let's meet our guests from [00:06:53] Dublin, we have the retired vice admiral Mark Melet. He's former [00:06:57] chief of staff the Irish Defense Forces and former head the [00:07:00] Navy. Mark is also author. From Brussels, we have [00:07:03] Jean-François Bellanger, he is assistant professor at the Institute for [00:07:07] Military Operations, that's at the Royal Danish Defense College in [00:07:11] Copenhagen. And I'm delighted [00:07:13] to say here with me in the studio is Shan Bell. Sean is a military [00:07:17] analyst and retired Air Vice Marshall. You're all very welcome to Round [00:07:21] Table. Sean to you first of all, where are the threats coming from [00:07:24] then? Yeah, I mean, one thing to remember is that we got [00:07:27] some maritime experts here, but the vast majority of global trade moves via the [00:07:31] oceans and therefore you need to be able to protect that. The main threats are [00:07:35] the critical national infrastructure. We've got lots of cables and pipelines underneath the [00:07:39] ocean. We've also got GPS that can be jammed. the ocean as [00:07:43] well and we're also seeing certainly [00:07:44] in the UK lot of Russian uh oil tankers, the sanction [00:07:48] fleet are making their way through, and therefore you need to have capability against [00:07:52] them critically for the cold war and I'm a cold war [00:07:55] veteran, um we used to be looking at main focus on his submarine warfare, we [00:07:59] recognize that the subserfice threat was really dangerous, but over the [00:08:03] years we've lost the ability to do that as credibly as we used to be able [00:08:06] to and threats like Russia and China, but most particularly Russia [00:08:10] has something like 50. submarines available, we've got [00:08:14] five, and most of those are actually not serviceable and they're all concurrently in [00:08:18] being worked on, so we do have a significant shortfall in our [00:08:22] military capability in the maritime environment. Jean-fençois, to [00:08:26] you, I read an extraordinary statistic this week, [00:08:29] 90% of Europe's trade goes via the [00:08:32] sea. We are hugely, hugely dependent on our waters, [00:08:36] are we doing enough to protect them? I will, I will [00:08:40] give the the wishy washy answer of. and no. um, I think the [00:08:44] investment that we're seeing at the moment are a [00:08:47] good uh, there are good steps. um, what I'm [00:08:51] a little bit unclear about, and I think it's it's touching on on some points [00:08:55] that that we're having here is that the choices that we're making at the moment [00:08:59] to defend, and and to be to be clear, [00:09:03] um, my my day today is to look mostly at the North Sea and the [00:09:06] Baltics, um, but when you look at these two [00:09:10] environments, the way the way the... geography and and the [00:09:14] sea works um frigates are not [00:09:17] necessarily the most uh [00:09:20] well prepared platform to defend for [00:09:24] example the the Baltics uh but I'm yet to see and [00:09:28] you see it piece meal lefts and right left and right um but I [00:09:32] think especially in the EU um I'm yet to [00:09:36] see very strong argument being [00:09:39] made for uncrued vehicle maritime. [00:09:42] especially um that could that could either be [00:09:46] fielded in conjunction with frigate and submarine for example uh or [00:09:50] also as part the main strategy uh [00:09:53] moving forward. Mark, to you, what's your assessment [00:09:57] of how secure our European seas [00:10:00] are? in some ways i think it's um [00:10:04] tying the other two speakers points, it's like as if the oceans [00:10:08] sneak sneak up snook up on us and we just realizing [00:10:12] how much... of our infrastructure is ocean-based, our [00:10:15] communications cables, our energy interconnectors, our sea [00:10:19] lines communications in terms of trade, they're all converging [00:10:23] on the oceans and I've often said that state security is inextricably [00:10:27] linked with economic security, which is inextrickably linked with energy [00:10:31] security, and our oceans are key component of [00:10:35] that, so I'm concerned that the architecture in terms of law the [00:10:39] sea convention from 1982 and its subsequent [00:10:42] amendments, is no longer fit for purpose in the context of what we see [00:10:46] today. Europe in particular is engaged a full-scale hybrid [00:10:50] war, and much of that is centered on the ocean, and just [00:10:54] to tie into your last... speaker there, we need a lot more situational [00:10:57] awareness in the context the complexity of activities that are at [00:11:01] sea, so we are quite vulnerable. Sean, [00:11:05] to you, Europe is spending money on defense like never before, or not [00:11:09] in living memory anyway, is enough [00:11:12] of it going on the sea, I think a lot of it's down to [00:11:15] priority priorities, I've been off to Ukraine fairly regularly, and you go [00:11:19] through Poland and they feel the heat the Russian [00:11:22] invasion far more than we... ever do over here through the lens [00:11:26] of history, but also because obviously it's right on their border, and [00:11:30] therefore they're investing heavily, but in land forces, in tanks and air [00:11:33] and they're less worried about the maritime environment. we [00:11:37] traditionally in the UK have been a mari time nation, we've been a [00:11:40] maritime power, so whilst lot of Europe tends to look east, we really need [00:11:44] to be looking west and north, and therefore it feels like [00:11:48] nationally and with some of Nordic partners, France and Spain and [00:11:52] Italy, all of which you have so key marat. borders, but [00:11:56] actually that's where it's [00:11:57] a different priority, and I do think you can't just sort of say NATO or [00:12:01] Europe here, you have to have subsets of where our [00:12:04] responsibility lies, because we're seeing in the UK, when it's the [00:12:07] Antar, and just off our shores, where it's the Russian submarines and their [00:12:11] test submarines lautering over under sea cables, whether it's aircraft [00:12:15] coming over, we're feeling that heat a lot more than I would say Poland does, [00:12:19] for example. Jean Francis, is there an argument for greater [00:12:22] integration then amongst European countries? European Union states in particular [00:12:26] when it comes to maritime and coastal [00:12:29] defense, well, it's an [00:12:33] interesting question to me, because this integration is already done and it's done [00:12:37] through NATO uh, and I understand that the European Union at the [00:12:40] moment is interested to um [00:12:44] look at alternative when it comes to um [00:12:48] to its security, especially marime security. Thank you, [00:12:52] Mark, you're in Ireland, I'm Irish, we are... small [00:12:55] country, we have a small navy, we are neutral, lot [00:12:59] of observers see us as like an achille's heal in western [00:13:03] Europe when it comes to sea defense, what do you say to that [00:13:06] accusation? well, i spent most of my time in the [00:13:10] navy, i ser for 45 years and i retired as [00:13:14] chief of defense or chief of staff the defense forces, i've always made [00:13:18] point, ireland did not pay sufficient attention to the maritime, [00:13:22] but that's that's changing now, we've launched our marity. security [00:13:25] strategy, we're investing in air surveillance, we're investing in [00:13:29] subsurface surveillance, but the bigger question is, in [00:13:33] terms the security strategy, we need to move towards an integrated approach, [00:13:37] and I think your last speaker raised point with regards to the NATO and the [00:13:41] European Union. I see this even bigger than that. I think the reality [00:13:45] is that we now need military and civilian integration, navy and [00:13:49] coast guard, public and private, national and European, physical and [00:13:53] cyber, so that we're actually stitching. together all the domains, [00:13:56] land in terms of surveillance radars, land base radars, maritime in terms [00:14:00] of surface assets, subsurface assets and space in terms [00:14:04] of using synthetic aperture radar, evolving technologies, i [00:14:08] work with a company here in ireland called yubotica, using AI in space and [00:14:12] of course cyber, stitching cyber into the architecture, so the [00:14:16] ultimately that we have what we're increasingly talking about now, a [00:14:19] whole of society approach to defense, security, [00:14:23] control and enforcement in the... marim domain, Ireland has quite [00:14:27] a large mountain decline in terms of meeting its national [00:14:31] responsibilities and equally its responsibilities to its [00:14:34] neighbors, but it's in moving in the right direction. The [00:14:38] challenge is, will something happen in the meantime, and [00:14:42] we've seen the activity the Yantar, in fact it doesn't even have [00:14:44] to be a yantar, it can be decommissioned traller that has the capacity [00:14:48] to do a hybrid impact that cuts cable. The issue is, [00:14:52] are we a position now to have a situational? awareness, the domain [00:14:56] awareness to actually act in time, to decide and to [00:15:00] act and to prevent. Thank you. Sean, this ship that keeps getting mentioned, [00:15:04] the And tower, just spell out for us what it is, and and what we think it might have [00:15:08] been doing around British waters. Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of Russian vessels where it's air [00:15:12] land or maritime that do lots of reconnaissance, and whilst in [00:15:16] itself it looks fairly innocent, but what it's actually doing is hovering up lots of [00:15:19] data intelligence, but also more crucially, working out where our [00:15:23] under sea cables are, but... also what reaction NATO might [00:15:27] do, so simply by being there, we get used to it being there, [00:15:30] simply by operating aircraft the key coming to our airspace, it tests [00:15:34] us, makes us a bit more complacent, but I think the problem bigger than that, [00:15:38] because again, you go back to the cold war, we were ready for war at [00:15:42] that day, the last 35 years, wars of choice, in our [00:15:46] navy, we've commissioned two the biggest aircraft carriers we've ever seen in our [00:15:49] time, phenomenally capable, but good for power projection, wars [00:15:53] of choice, not for wars of national survival, and the problem is [00:15:57] is that we had to be ready 24 and seven, if you're going to be ready [00:16:01] 24 and seven, that's why we have four nuclear submarines bause we [00:16:04] need one available all times, you've only got two... carriers, you [00:16:08] probably got long periods of time when one them is never going to be available, that's just not [00:16:12] acceptable. if you're going to have a carrier capability, you got to be all in and [00:16:16] do it 24 and se or have a shift system where other countries in [00:16:20] NATO take over. so i think we're recovering from 35 years [00:16:24] of understandable peace dividend. now is a wake-up call to [00:16:28] work out that actually other nations, particularly Russia, particularly [00:16:31] submarines have huge advantage over Europe. we need to get [00:16:35] back into the really... world of anti-submarine warfare, whether it's [00:16:39] air, land or maritime to make sure that we're um detering [00:16:43] that Russian aggression. Sean, just for we have here, I know you're an Air Vice Marshall, [00:16:47] but give me your assessment the UK Royal Navy, because lot of people feel [00:16:51] that it has kind of year on year not been resourced to what it [00:16:55] was. Yeah, I mean, I spent lot of time, I spent more time at float than many [00:16:59] of my naval contemporaries. I would probably bow to my guest here, but I [00:17:03] spent many, many months on board aircraft carriers. One the things that navy [00:17:07] is... absolutely outstanding professional, we got some amazing people there, [00:17:10] but because of this focus on the carriers, we've had to [00:17:14] take risk a whole number of other areas, and now because the operational [00:17:18] tempo, political pressure, we've got the people, there's a thousand fewer people in [00:17:22] their all nav, it needs to be, those that are in there are working incredibly hard, moral [00:17:26] is therefore difficult to maintain, and I think the first sealord finds himself an [00:17:30] invidious position that from a maritime very proud nation [00:17:34] that's been defined by its maritime prowess, we find out... was a bit of [00:17:38] a low-eb at the moment, i think the future is going to be very positive, but [00:17:42] my goodness we've got a bit of a mountain to climb. thanks, Sean. Jean [00:17:45] Franc, talk to me about the the threat level then as you [00:17:49] see it, is it all Russia or are [00:17:52] there other actors at play that Europe needs to be worried [00:18:13] but to - to to to the question, um, I [00:18:16] think at the moment, yes, we could [00:18:20] probably look for, and and uh, Sean, I believe uh, discuss uh, [00:18:24] that China will will be will be issue, but I think at the moment [00:18:28] that the threat is mostly uh, Russian when it comes to, [00:18:32] when it comes to Europe, we had report that NATO intercepted Russian operation [00:18:36] near Swallbard." around the undersea cables that were [00:18:39] here uh we've seen what the shadow fleet has been doing [00:18:43] in in in recent years or we have commercial vessel [00:18:46] raking uh that we can sometimes attribute to Russia [00:18:50] sometime not we've been raking their anchors at the bottom [00:18:54] the the Baltic Sea for example to cut cables there um [00:18:57] so it it [00:18:58] it is where it's located the threat is also now what we you know [00:19:02] taking NATO parliance a bit more multi domain right like it's not strictly the [00:19:06] Russian threat. will take a maritime aspect, but that [00:19:10] maritime aspect is going to be supported by hybrid [00:19:13] effort, it's going to be supported by uh cyber [00:19:17] space and effort and so on, um, and I [00:19:20] think on that front, this is what NATO was moving to with its new [00:19:24] war fighting concept of multi-domain operation, but um, to [00:19:28] to to return very briefly to your question, uh, no, for Europe, and and I mean the [00:19:32] Danish assessment I think remain um, remain [00:19:36] sound, although when "it came out that Russia might [00:19:40] initiate conflict either with Baltic border states or the [00:19:43] broader of NATO within two and five years, I think it's important to [00:19:47] remember that this assessment came out year ago, so we're no longer [00:19:51] two to five, we're one to four, um, so in very [00:19:55] short, yes, Russia, for the moment, for the Europeans [00:19:58] is the is the threat. Thank you, Mark, [00:20:02] we've seen Russian vessels loitering off the coast of Ireland [00:20:06] repeatedly." what were they up to and how did the Irish government [00:20:10] respond? yeah, well, I think the Irish government has [00:20:14] in recent years strengthened its bilateral with the UK, it's [00:20:18] bilateral with its nearest EU neighbor France, and it is actually [00:20:22] greater, it's given greater support to, I suppose the [00:20:25] multilateral framework. Ireland is [00:20:29] militarily aligned, but that does not mean that it doesn't engage in [00:20:32] information sharing, and we are currently have the present [00:20:36] presidency of... the eu council, so there is lot of [00:20:40] bilateral, multilateral support in ensuring the architecture is [00:20:43] right. that's said, we are concerned with regards the [00:20:47] activities the Russian federation, the Sean has mentioned. the Yantar. [00:20:50] Yantar is a formidable vessel, while it may look like a civilian vessel, [00:20:54] actually, it's manned by Russian naval personnel. It's on the state [00:20:58] register, so technically speaking under the law the sea convention, it's a [00:21:02] warship, and you have to be careful in terms of how you operate [00:21:06] around the vessel that has that status. Russian vessels in [00:21:10] terms their shadow fleet have been increas in the [00:21:13] jurisdiction around the Irish coast, they have been evading sanctions [00:21:17] and there is a real question over the C worriness these [00:21:20] vessels, the standards and certification the watchkeepers on these [00:21:24] vessels, and there is a question then back to the [00:21:27] integrity the international institutions, the law the sea [00:21:30] convention, to deal with vessels that are actually actively [00:21:34] avoiding sanctions and at the same time playing [00:21:38] fast and loose with international law. Thank you, Mark. Sean, talk to me [00:21:42] about this northern navy's initiative, so the UK [00:21:45] training and and aligning itself closer with some the Nordic and [00:21:49] Scandinavian. countries, Norway in particular, seems to be lot [00:21:53] about integrating systems and and sharing platforms, so that [00:21:57] if they were needed to fight together, they would all be singing off the same [00:22:01] song sheet, yeah, part of that is the Iceland Greenland [00:22:05] gap, um, largely ignored, I think, for [00:22:08] many, many years, probably decades, but it's a key geographic [00:22:12] as natural feature where if Russian submarines want to make their way out [00:22:16] from the Russian coastline into the Atlantic, then you... to make your [00:22:20] way through that and there's a strategy based on and look at my nose [00:22:24] jan Bayden in it's right the middle and there's been a number of exercises being done [00:22:28] recently where the raw navy and some of its partner [00:22:31] nations are reinforcing that island it's strategically important for the gap [00:22:35] they're [00:22:36] also making sure they can operate together and of course it's worth remembering that anything [00:22:39] when you as soon as you get into the arctic the weather becomes a bit more tricky and i [00:22:43] wouldn't underestimate it's easy to say well it's just a ship but actually you've got [00:22:47] to operate on the decks these ships you've got to opera aircraft, you got to helicopters [00:22:51] and the like, and when it gets very cold, when the the sea gets very rough as well [00:22:55] up there, which you can be in the winter, you need to train in that environment, and [00:22:59] as um Jean said, I, I, I spent lot of time at sea, but I used to get [00:23:03] seasick, it takes about three or four days before you get your sea legs and it was [00:23:06] thoroughly miserable for that time, but once you've got your sea legs and you're [00:23:10] used to the operation, that's the huge value of training, and that's the one thing the [00:23:14] Royal Navy is pushing hard to do with lots of its northern European allies [00:23:18] at the moment, everyone thinks of Arctic is a big vast icy [00:23:22] expanse, I'm guessing there is lot of submarine activity up there. [00:23:26] Well, it's the way out for lot the Russian submarines from their ports to get down to the [00:23:29] Atlantic. I mean now with global warming, there's a lot of northern roots now that are opening up, I [00:23:33] saw in the news on only earlier today, there's a Chinese vessel that's made its way [00:23:37] up, and it saves a lot of time rather than going the southern route down through the [00:23:41] sewis canal. If you can go across the top, it saves a huge amount of time and therefore [00:23:45] a huge amount of money, that will become a strategically important route, and therefore [00:23:49] we need to protect. and make sure it doesn't get closed down. Thank you. Jean [00:23:52] Francis, we've heard lot of talk about this Russian shadow [00:23:55] fleet zipping through European Waters, the [00:23:59] channel between England and France in particular, how concerning is that [00:24:03] then from a European perspective that they seem to be able to do what they [00:24:06] want. Well, what what is concerning is [00:24:10] that there seems to be lack of interest [00:24:12] in full on engagement with the shadow fleet. I [00:24:16] mean, we've been talking about, we've been talking about this rother. how many years [00:24:20] we know what they've been able to uh that that that they've been able [00:24:24] to help Russia uh go around sanctions and so on around the war, so what [00:24:28] worries me is, I mean their movement and pattern [00:24:32] are now well tracked and well situated, what [00:24:36] is a little bit concerning to me is that despite knowing this [00:24:39] there's not an over over effort to [00:24:43] actually um counted and now I understand why because we don't want to [00:24:47] engage a like the Russians have threatened. that an engagement there would [00:24:51] also mean like an engagement with them, they they've linked it few times to [00:24:55] the war in Ukraine [00:24:56] and so on. Mark, to you, I see you have new book out, blue [00:24:59] heart, war, climate and the battle for the ocean that keeps us [00:25:03] alive, how concerned are you about the kind the actual physical [00:25:06] state of our seas? well, I am [00:25:10] concerned, and we we tend to talk at the about the ocean as a battle space, but [00:25:14] the ocean itself is part the critical infrastructure that [00:25:17] is keeping us alive and that we should be trying to [00:25:20] protect, the very reason we're having this conversation is that [00:25:24] fact that the ocean absorb 90% the excess heat and [00:25:28] 30% the excess carbon we emit. the ocean is obviously [00:25:32] critical in terms of our security architecture, in terms of our [00:25:36] energy interconnectors, 80% of our [00:25:39] lng on this island comes via interconnectors at sea, and [00:25:43] increasingly we can see the overwhelming dependency we have [00:25:47] in terms of our tech economies. on fiber optic [00:25:51] cables, which are at the heart of Russian [00:25:54] Federation, particular hybrid activities, monitoring these cables and [00:25:58] in places interfering these cables, so I am concerned that... [00:26:02] "we need to take a more holistic view in terms the oceans, I'm delighted to [00:26:06] see that Europe is moving with an oceans act, and I think that that should be a [00:26:10] chapo for other states in the European region who to have [00:26:14] similar legislation, so we can have that integrated [00:26:17] approach to protecting this critical infrastructure that actually is [00:26:21] keeping regulating our climate, and as we move forward [00:26:25] in initiatives such as 30% of our seas protected by [00:26:29] 2030, that we actually begin to see the importance. of [00:26:33] biodiversity in our ocean spaces, which receives currently very little [00:26:37] protection, biodiversity in the ocean is as valuable as [00:26:40] rainforest on land, and yet we're we're not at the [00:26:44] moment providing that that protection towards this vast [00:26:47] amount of jurisdiction where there is critical amount of [00:26:50] biodiversity currently being damaged daily. thank you, [00:26:54] mark, just pick up point that mark made there, which i think we we've [00:26:58] missed slightly is, it's all having a kit and equipment and ships and tanks [00:27:02] and marines, but actually unless you have political resolve, it [00:27:05] becomes worthless, it's not a deterrent without having determination and [00:27:09] resolve, and I think what we're seeing exactly as the panelists have said, is that [00:27:13] Russia is just pushing the edges all the time, we're seeing them do it, but we're [00:27:17] reluctant to do anything about it, and the danger is that emboldens President [00:27:21] Putin, and I always refer back to the example when two Russian jets flew out [00:27:25] of Syria towards Turkey, Turkey said turn back, one them turned back, the [00:27:29] other Russian jet continued, two F-16s from Turkey shot it down, [00:27:33] President Putin was apoplectic, never again did Russian [00:27:36] aircraft go into Turkish airspace, you have to be robust, and I think [00:27:40] NATO has to find a way, it's not going to precipitate a war, but [00:27:44] unless we're more robust in the maritime domain, we are keep going to get [00:27:47] pressurized. I think it's a fantastic point, and just to push this just a little bit [00:27:51] further, we're a situation now in Europe where we might see [00:27:55] government um that [00:27:57] may decide then to to go a bit closer to um to Russia, we're [00:28:01] seeing the uh that everybody talks about the recent uh [00:28:04] AFD election in Germany, but um, if this propagates through [00:28:08] the country then we're going to end up a state where we might have very [00:28:12] important state in Europe who might decide to cut [00:28:16] back actions to counter uh Russia, the same looking at the [00:28:20] French elections for example, and I agree, political will [00:28:24] is the be is the number one variable that you need in order [00:28:28] to be able to to do these things, and I'm um I'm a bit concerned that [00:28:32] in the... next two to three, three, let's say two to five years, [00:28:36] um, the political will is going to erode more than [00:28:38] what it is now, as we, we might be witnessing shift to governments [00:28:42] that are more sympathetic to um to the [00:28:45] Russians. Thank you. Sean, just one last point to you, with all these [00:28:49] Russian vessels floating around, do you worry that it will be incident at [00:28:53] sea that leads to something far, far bigger? No, is the [00:28:57] short answer. I mean, having operate off her majesty's, then her majesty's [00:29:01] carriers, we have. lots of incidence to see, we lost aeroplanes, all sorts, you just push [00:29:05] them off the edge the ship and nobody's there to witness it, um, you just count them out [00:29:09] when you leave and you count them back in when you come back, there's no journalists on the ground, [00:29:13] there's very little filming going on, so you can actually there's denial and all sorts [00:29:17] of things going on around it. do worry that we're not taking the [00:29:21] sub-surface threat properly, because it's not just uh Russia's [00:29:24] huge fleets or attack submarines and nuclear submarines, it's also I think they've got [00:29:28] 10 experimental submarines that go to absen depths that do... [00:29:32] sorts of clever things on the seabed, why are they doing that? they're all [00:29:36] doing that because there's a macgy of alien agenda going on here and we are [00:29:40] going to get surprised if we're not prepared. sean belle, thank you, [00:29:43] Jean-François and mark in Ireland as well, thank you all. remember [00:29:47] you can see more discussion and debate on our YouTube channel, search for roundtable [00:29:51] TRT World, but for now from me and de Brady and all the team here, goodbye [00:29:55] and thank you for [00:29:56] watching. [00:30:06] Strat breaks down Turkia's place in the [00:30:09] world, triggering power shift that is [00:30:13] transforming volatile [00:30:14] region. [00:30:19] Stray talk understanding the challenges facing Turkia and [00:30:23] how it's adapting to a changing [00:30:25] world. [00:30:30] Straight talk on TRT World. [00:30:49] the hooty capture of Yemen's Red Sea coastline may have opened [00:30:53] a dangerous new phase in the U.S. Iran war. Could [00:30:57] this reshape the balance of power in the Gulf and strengthen Iran's [00:31:01] hand in the region? I'm Hazim Sea and today's newsmaker [00:31:05] is Yemen and the Houti [00:31:06] Advance. [00:31:24] Yemen's long-running civil war is threatening to open another front [00:31:28] in the wider Middle East conflict. Iran backed Houti [00:31:31] forces have seized a key coastal town on the Red Sea. [00:31:35] The Babel Mandab straight is one the world's most important shipping [00:31:39] roots with Saudi Arabia also coming under attack and [00:31:42] Iran now directly and indirectly. in control of two [00:31:46] vital choke points in the region, the consequences could extend far [00:31:50] beyond Yemen. Fighting in Yemen once [00:31:54] again risks becoming a larger front in a widening war in the [00:31:58] Middle East. Yemen's Iran aligned and [00:32:01] Saralahutis have seized control of Yemen's entire red [00:32:05] sea coast a sweeping offensive. It marks [00:32:09] new phase a long, simmering civil war between [00:32:12] Hughters and nationally recognized Yemeni [00:32:16] government. Houti forces also announced [00:32:20] attacks on their sworn enemy, Saudi [00:32:22] Arabia. By the grace [00:32:26] of Allah, the Yemeni armed forces carried out a large qualitative [00:32:30] military operation targeting military facilities and [00:32:33] infrastructure. Including aircraft [00:32:37] hangers, radar installations, runways, ammunition depots and [00:32:41] other targets at kingghaded airbase in James Mushaid. [00:32:45] Attacks on Saudi infrastructure and oil facilities have become [00:32:49] increasing strategic concern since the US led [00:32:53] war on Iran. Overland oil pipelines through Saudi [00:32:57] Arabia to the Red Sea have been used to mitigate [00:33:01] the effects the effective closure the straight of [00:33:04] homoz, and by capturing the port of Mocca and [00:33:08] Parim Island, Iran-backed Hutis now gain a [00:33:12] foothold very close to the Babelman. straight where [00:33:16] attacks on ships in the red sea could [00:33:19] affect international shipping, however, the [00:33:23] Iranian government denies any involvement in the war [00:33:27] in Yemen. I reaffirm that Iran [00:33:31] does not interfere in Yemeni affairs, however we are a [00:33:34] country concerned about the situation in the region and we know that some [00:33:38] actors are exploiting this situation to exacerbate disputes and [00:33:42] divisions among Islamic countries. [00:33:45] That is why we are clearly stating our position, this stance [00:33:48] should in no [00:33:49] way be perceived as interference in this matter. [00:33:53] Hothies say their military operations are targeted primarily [00:33:57] at Saudi-linked ships and that international shipping [00:34:00] remains safe, but their advance in the region [00:34:04] against the struggling, recognized Yemeni government [00:34:08] has had devastating consequences already. At [00:34:12] least 1800 households or 125, people have been [00:34:15] displaced since the start the month. the toll on civilians is [00:34:19] increasing. between September 1st and today, our colleagues at the UN human [00:34:22] rights office have verified 40 civilian casualties, eight [00:34:26] people killed [00:34:27] and 32 others injured. tens of thousands of Yemenes [00:34:31] civilians have fled the region in recent months and the [00:34:34] latest offensive has only accelerated the humanitarian [00:34:38] crisis. many have fled directly across the straight [00:34:42] to televised [00:34:43] Jibuti interview. an official from the recognized [00:34:47] yemini government pledged to reclaim yeman's [00:34:50] territory on the red sea coast. even these forces [00:34:54] that [00:34:55] with threw or moved from one place to another are now regrouping god [00:34:58] almighty willing and they will return one second to the battle in one [00:35:02] way or another. the continued fighting could destroy [00:35:06] a fragile and strained [00:35:09] 2022 [00:35:13] as try to consolidate the... on the red sea coast, they [00:35:17] gain valuable leverage over one the world's most important [00:35:20] trade roots. a time when the straight of homols is already [00:35:24] understain, disruption to shipping channels [00:35:27] here, result [00:35:28] as of regional civil war conflict, could [00:35:32] still have global [00:35:34] repercussions. we're joining me [00:35:38] now to talk more about this from, we [00:35:40] have pry [00:35:43] yemeny journalist and Seattle, Middle East Analyst at [00:35:47] the University of Oxford, Aragdat and from [00:35:50] Washington DC, research fellow in the Middle East program [00:35:54] at the Quincey Institute and former US state department official [00:35:58] Anel Sheline. Good to have you all with us. So Hussein, let me start with [00:36:02] you, how significant then is this uh recent Houti [00:36:06] advance for the fight against Saudi Arabia and for control [00:36:10] of [00:36:10] Yemen. [00:36:18] It has been clearly here from the leader ofuti that the [00:36:21] main goal of yemen is the total liberation of Yaman and he said [00:36:25] many time in his previous peace. speech that [00:36:29] yemen will not or sana will not allow any foreign [00:36:33] present or outside forces present in Yemen and as well he will not [00:36:37] allow any groups in any arean [00:36:40] to be under occupation or under the control of any groups or [00:36:43] militia that's under the control [00:36:47] of non yemani government like like the saudi [00:36:51] under back forces in in Yemen and we've seen that this latest [00:36:55] advance of course many uh outlet they have been saying that [00:36:58] this advance and liberation the west coast of [00:37:02] Yemen, especially mokha and bab al mandab and the [00:37:06] control the island in that area on the red [00:37:10] sea that it will give advantage for Sanha Forces or the Yemani [00:37:14] army to control the rid sea, but actually this is [00:37:17] not true because yemani armed forces here they weren't control [00:37:21] the red sea babel mandab, the gulf of Aiden and the Arabian sea since [00:37:25] 2023 when they have... launched attack against the zin state of [00:37:29] Israel to force it to stop the genicide in Gaza [00:37:33] against the Palestinian people and they were targeting Israeli anzion ships in [00:37:37] the in the entire red sea and as well the gulf of Aiden and [00:37:41] the Arabian sea so to control the r you do need to [00:37:44] be at the coast or at at babal mandab but why was [00:37:48] that the first like attack the liberation of Yemen [00:37:52] was in that area because that area was it [00:37:56] held one the large... just united arab or [00:37:59] saudi united arab emirate coalition backed forces, it [00:38:03] was in in moka, it was the strongest troops [00:38:07] that because of course after the disagreement of United Arab [00:38:10] Emirate and Saudi, that area is under the control the Saudi, but with [00:38:14] the same commander Tarek Saleh, so that was the [00:38:17] largest and the most advanced weapons is in that [00:38:21] base and you can reach that area by air, by land, by sea, [00:38:25] that's why Saudi have been sending and lot of [00:38:29] weapons and armored vehicles and the United Arab Emirates has been doing that [00:38:33] for many years uh so that to to liberate your [00:38:36] country you have to hurt the enemy in the like the [00:38:40] strong in their main [00:38:43] strength in in land and this was actually the main goal [00:38:47] of advancing in in that area toward moka and [00:38:51] babdad what's your view on these latest [00:38:55] developments in Yemen on on the military side [00:38:58] is it and is this a temporary battlefield breakthrough or or a [00:39:02] fundamental shift now in the balance of power in the region? the [00:39:06] saudis are trying to pass this off as a brief moment, [00:39:10] however this feels very fundamental. what we're seeing right [00:39:14] now is there's only two areas that are still contested in the north, [00:39:17] madab and tas, and those are currently under tribal mediation. the huties [00:39:21] are very good at using tribes to maintain their legitimacy [00:39:25] and in parallel to their military act. of [00:39:28] course, because [00:39:29] of that, that really just leaves the south, and now babil mandab is [00:39:33] fully under an unsar control, so this is a [00:39:37] big victory for Asanza law, and reminder [00:39:41] that this cold truth that they've been stuck in since 2022 is [00:39:45] not how they're going [00:39:45] to allow things continue in Yemen, and for Saudi Arabia, this is pretty [00:39:49] big as well, buse they have their vision 2030, and they were planning [00:39:53] a victory, they were told by their forces in Yemen, that if [00:39:57] they just get another shot, [00:39:59] that they can really take this home, that they can end this war, they assumed unsar law has [00:40:03] been exhausted, and the economic tool has prevented them [00:40:07] from having any outstanding military [00:40:10] capacity, and as we've all seen, that's clearly not the [00:40:13] case. and now she line, how does [00:40:17] this in your view affect the balance of power in the [00:40:20] region? [00:40:23] certainly this signals the unprecedent. [00:40:31] I think the concern at this point is that the United States might get [00:40:35] involved, although we know that NBS had [00:40:38] requested that Donald Trump and direct support, and thus [00:40:42] far he has not said that he's willing to [00:40:46] do so. I worry that as this impacts global oil [00:40:50] prices, especially leading up to the U.S. midterms, Trump may [00:40:54] find that he is increasingly a... [00:40:57] position where [00:40:58] he feels he has to get involved, which will not lead to solution. we've [00:41:02] already seen very clearly that there is no military solution in [00:41:05] Yemen, the only way forward is mediated peace [00:41:09] process involving Yemenis themselves and that [00:41:13] foreign powers, including the Saudis and others need [00:41:17] to get out of Yemen and allow Yemenis to determine their own [00:41:20] destiny. how much is this [00:41:24] about the His and what they are trying to do? in [00:41:27] Yemen and how much is this about Iran's wider strategy, [00:41:31] because there are those who will say who will see Iran's hand in [00:41:35] this. [00:41:42] I mean this is not true, if we see when Yemany have started [00:41:45] their bloccade, see bloccade against Saudi Arabia, and [00:41:49] when they when did they start as well advancing and liberating part of [00:41:53] Yemen, they started started [00:41:56] that after the Saudi has broke the seas fire and targeted San [00:41:59] airport, so there is reason who [00:42:02] has have actually made that truce that was signed in [00:42:05] 2022 made it collapse, and this nor [00:42:10] any war if you have a truice and then they target your capital and they target the [00:42:14] airport, this is actually a declaration of war if if there is no trous [00:42:18] and as well if if if yemen as they say or they call the onesarla were like a [00:42:22] tool and they get order from Iran they could have targeted [00:42:25] Saudi Arabia during the 12 days of war against Iran [00:42:29] from the zionist or they could as well target Saudi Arabia and do the same [00:42:33] action they doing now during the 40 days of war where where the designed [00:42:37] state of Israel and the United State has targeted Iran i mean [00:42:41] really strong and they have killed the supreme leader ayatullah imam [00:42:45] ali khaminai just imagine they killed the leader [00:42:49] of of [00:42:49] of of that country and and and and yemen at that time did not get involved [00:42:53] did not fight in the rid so the only thing that matter to [00:42:57] yemen is yemen and what about [00:43:01] yemen but of course as axis of resistant they [00:43:05] have an like i said an operation room but they [00:43:08] only uh get decision together when it regard Israel and the zient [00:43:12] state of Israel we remember during the attack from Yemen and as well the attack from [00:43:16] Hisbollah and the resistant in Iraq the Yemen and Iraq and the resistance [00:43:20] and as well Iran during their attack against them they were [00:43:24] coordinating the attack against against Israel [00:43:28] so but when it comes to matter of Yemen Yemen is fully [00:43:32] independent in taking their their decision and we've see [00:43:35] that I can just explain very quick [00:43:39] why this huge advance that happened in in [00:43:43] in the west coast is because Saudi and during their Saudi [00:43:47] backed forces advance in in in many area across [00:43:50] Yemen, one the main reason behind that that 90% the [00:43:54] strength the Saudi backed forces in Yemen is the [00:43:58] Saudi air cover and air [00:44:01] strike cover against sana forces so any [00:44:05] area they have controlled it has been like carpet [00:44:09] bombed and then the... Saudi backed forces on land will will will will [00:44:12] like you advance, but at this time actually is [00:44:16] different, why is not because the saudi are not launching air strike, they are [00:44:20] launching air strike, but yemen has limited the strength of that saudi [00:44:24] air strike by continuing targeting saudi main bases like in [00:44:28] khamis musheid south of Saudi Arabia, king Khalid air base one the largest [00:44:31] in south of Saudi Arabia and as well king [00:44:35] Fahad airbase a taif yeman has been bombing those two [00:44:39] bases. with with dozens of missiles and [00:44:42] drones which actually affected the ability of [00:44:45] Saudi to have total cover and as before when they used to launch [00:44:49] hundred of air strike a day or 100 air strike on on one area [00:44:53] and as well yemani have as well now advance air air defense and [00:44:57] they they have been uh like stopping some the air strike to happened and [00:45:01] forcing the saudi fighterget to come back to to to return and we [00:45:05] remember during the prosperity guardian united state has admitted that [00:45:09] yemani were about to shoot down an f [00:45:11] 35 uh and as well another f a group of [00:45:15] f16 and f22 so this is actually what have [00:45:18] limited the saudis ability to support [00:45:22] their fighters fighters on the ground you bring [00:45:26] up number of things i want to put some of that to to uh [00:45:29] mukdad uh because lot of people were surprised at the [00:45:33] speed of this advance uh from the hoothies why why [00:45:37] has the saudi back government in your view proved so [00:45:40] ineffective. there's [00:45:44] a lot of issues with the saudi-back government, mainly that their fractured, [00:45:48] there is no ideology beyond being anti-hoothi. so [00:45:52] what we're seeing with things such as the presidential leadership council, [00:45:56] which is handselected by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is that [00:46:00] they hate each other as much as [00:46:01] they hate the hoothies. this is a really divided [00:46:04] team. um, there's a lot of corruption, it's pretty high as [00:46:08] well. lot the top command is based in Saudi Arabia, [00:46:12] not even Yemen, uh, which not only furthers them from the [00:46:15] battlefield, but keeps them out the loop inherently, and this [00:46:19] damages their legitimacy with populations on the ground, whereas you have [00:46:23] unsar law, which is battle hardened, even prior to this war, they fought [00:46:27] six wars with the saleh regime, um, and has very [00:46:30] clear ideology and structure that they're willing to [00:46:34] operate, um, we've seen time and time again, they are forced to be [00:46:38] reckoned with militarily. and it's fairly naive at this [00:46:42] point to continue to engage with them militarily each time they only get [00:46:46] stronger. anal [00:46:48] chine, how mean does does the? [00:46:52] us then have [00:46:53] the the capacity at this point or even the appetite to intervene [00:46:57] if they need to, or would that simply play into the hoouti [00:47:00] strategy? we saw very clearly during [00:47:04] operation r that the [00:47:07] effort to apply a military [00:47:10] ineffective, which is why i think uninterested in [00:47:14] returning to that. at the same [00:47:17] time, trump as a leader [00:47:21] strategic. is not haviic skills, [00:47:25] doesn't have effective team around him to [00:47:28] address conflicts any way other than continuing [00:47:32] to bomb the target, however the US is very real [00:47:36] limits its capacity, having trump got [00:47:40] involved in this unnecessary choice against [00:47:44] Iran, and now the US military is stretched quite [00:47:48] thin, not only the middle lease but around the world, so it is [00:47:52] under is hesitating to re-engage, [00:47:55] but like I said, I worry that in [00:47:59] the context of terms with rising oil [00:48:03] prices, Trump may feel that his only [00:48:06] option is to go back in, and the results of that would really be to [00:48:10] further destroy Yemen, to further undermine theity of [00:48:14] Yemen's peaceful future, and [00:48:17] as likely result in the same [00:48:21] outcome, the [00:48:23] hoothies will be undeterred, this is not also their [00:48:27] policy, um, [00:48:31] i expect that the only outcome would be more unnecessary [00:48:34] death and suffering, and at the end we would arrive at the same [00:48:38] outcome. all right, i want to turn to to the whole issue of [00:48:42] control the Babel mandad straight and the [00:48:45] implications that's going to have for international [00:48:47] shipping. in their previous attacks, [00:48:51] thehutis. said that they were only targeting vessels linked [00:48:55] to Israel, and I know you you made some mention of that, but in [00:48:59] fact they did hit uh ships with no such [00:49:02] connection, including at one point a Norwegian flag [00:49:05] tanker, so when the hooties now say they're only going to [00:49:09] block shipping to the Saudis, why should anyone believe [00:49:12] them? [00:49:21] in the prosperity guard? and the blue cade against state [00:49:24] of Israel, there was three stage of targeting Israeli ship, it [00:49:28] was first of first stage was targeting Israeli own ships, [00:49:32] second stage was targeting Israeli linked ships, so it means if there is a [00:49:36] shipping company or a ship that have businessman from Israel, if you [00:49:40] have like 5% the chip or the company, this is linked [00:49:43] to Israel and the third stage was to [00:49:46] target a ship that's going toward the [00:49:49] Israeli port or coming out of israel port so it doesn't need [00:49:53] to be Israeli, it could be like, i don't from any [00:49:56] country, those are the three stage, because yemen formed those three [00:50:00] stage step by step and they were like kind of [00:50:03] expanding their attack, and if you say about that norwegian [00:50:07] ship, mean i can remember that, it could be one these that [00:50:11] are either linked or either went to to [00:50:15] came in from israeleli port or going to Israeli port and the fourth [00:50:18] stage was it was a wider and bigger that if there is any company let's say a [00:50:22] company that have 50, a fleet of 50 ship, if one of that [00:50:26] ship of that company, one ship has gone to Israel, even through the [00:50:30] mediterarancy, this mean all the 49 ships [00:50:33] are not allowed from the rid sea, so [00:50:37] it's four stage and yemen was doing so to to [00:50:41] stop, it's like the they were trying to do something good to have a [00:50:45] form a blockade against Israel, it should be the united nation who [00:50:49] should have taken a step and the UN security council so... germany was [00:50:53] doing, they were trying implement the international law by forcing Israel to [00:50:56] stop the junite and this actually to protect [00:51:00] the people who are under attack and under ethnic cleansing, but on [00:51:04] the other hand we see united states and other country, they were [00:51:08] supporting the scient state under genicide and the media, western [00:51:11] media, they were asking us why we doing so, they are not asking the people who are [00:51:15] attacking the ziant state of Israel, [00:51:19] mean supporting are regarding to Saudi Arabia, [00:51:26] just to clarify so then any commercial ship that is going through [00:51:30] the babil mandab straight that has no connection to either Israel or [00:51:34] Saudi Arabia they will be free to go through is that is that what you [00:51:37] believe? at at this at this point what they [00:51:40] said any ship can go through b except [00:51:44] Saudi because we have formed a blocade against Saudi Even before [00:51:47] controlling the Babel mandab but regarding Israel I can assure you that [00:51:51] there is no ship. At this point going through the red sea, even [00:51:55] though Yemen has after the agreement between the [00:51:59] resistant Hamas and Israel and the seas fire, of course Yeman has [00:52:03] declared that as soon as. they will stop and they have [00:52:07] stopped so uh so any [00:52:10] i believe if there is any other as long as not the saudi ship because the [00:52:13] battle now is for yemen okay let's let's put some of that to [00:52:17] awa then how close are we [00:52:18] then ar to a situation where major shipping [00:52:22] companies simply decide that the baby mendeb straight is is too [00:52:26] dangerous to use uh as many have already done with [00:52:30] the straight of homoz think time will [00:52:33] tell with this Initially [00:52:35] of course everyone's going to be a bit spooked and try to avoid Babel [00:52:39] mandab, however with the straight of hormo's close, they don't really have [00:52:43] many options at this point, and if the hoothies keep on their [00:52:47] promise of only attacking ships linked to Saudi Arabia, [00:52:51] then I think other shipping companies will be willing to take that risk, um, it's an [00:52:55] expensive detour, um, gas prices, oil prices are [00:52:58] already sky high, you're going to have to take that risk, and so [00:53:02] far the hoofies seem to be following through with... they've been [00:53:05] saying, so [00:53:08] annel sheeline, is there uh, in your view realistic [00:53:12] route to prevent Yemen permanently becoming [00:53:16] this proxy battlefield in the [00:53:18] region? I think the [00:53:22] most straightforward way of addressing this would be for the [00:53:26] Saudis to try meeting the Huthi's demands, [00:53:30] they tried for seven years to fight the Hufis [00:53:32] unsuccessfully, so at this... point perhaps what they should try [00:53:36] to do is lift the blockade, lift the restrictions on the hoofi [00:53:40] controlled territory, grant Yemen its sovereignty [00:53:43] and proceed from there. um, as [00:53:47] we've said, the the military options have not been [00:53:50] working, um, from the Saudis perspective, they just need to get their [00:53:54] oil to market, because their very large um tankers can't go [00:53:58] through Suez, and we know at this point the east-west pip pipeline [00:54:02] is shut down anyway, as result of attacks. we believe [00:54:05] by um militias in Iraq, and so right now there [00:54:09] isn't even oil coming across to the Red Sea, but in the event [00:54:13] that that again is is resumed, some of it won't be [00:54:17] able to go through the Suas Canal anyway, so the Saudis really do need [00:54:20] to find a solution here, and at the moment the Saudis [00:54:24] continue to be under the impression that there's a military [00:54:28] solution, but again and again it has been [00:54:31] clear that that is really unlikely to be effective, and from this... [00:54:35] position, they are already suffering economically, MBS [00:54:39] is in the process of trying implement his very ambitious vision [00:54:42] 2030, and I think from the the the most [00:54:45] effective means forward would be for Saudi Arabia to [00:54:49] to make um to come to an agreement with the Hufis, to [00:54:53] recognize their sovereignty, a way this would also [00:54:57] allow the Hufis to then develop relationship with Saudi [00:55:01] Arabia, the Saudis have expressed concerns that this would increase... [00:55:05] the influence of Iran and Yemen, but from [00:55:08] the the perspective of unsud law, they would prefer to be [00:55:12] recognized as the legitimate government in Sana by other countries, not [00:55:16] only Iran, and to be able to proceed [00:55:19] with relationship with Saudi Arabia for example, so I fear that that [00:55:23] is unlikely to be the route that Saudi Arabia takes, but I [00:55:27] do think that that would be the most effective way [00:55:31] of of addressing this this crisis for. [00:55:35] world in terms of oil prices and and starting to move [00:55:38] towards a negotiated solution for Yemen. All right, we're going to [00:55:42] have to leave it there. Good discussion. Thanks very much to all three of you for taking [00:55:46] part and thank you for watching. Remember, as always [00:55:49] you can follow us on social media and be sure to subscribe to [00:55:53] our YouTube channel. I'm Hasm Seeker. We'll see you next [00:55:56] time. 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It details just how much damage Iran has [01:00:59] cost to US