TRTWORLD — Africa Matters 20260915 233000 UTC 479 transcript segments Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp) Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] to the large scale violence that we've seen in decades gone by. The [00:00:04] question then is can the peace last, can these political [00:00:07] agents can these politicians find a way on the negotiating [00:00:11] table to make things work, to come [00:00:14] of together and to work for the sake [00:00:15] of the banga [00:00:16] of people. That's what they've been saying that their aim [00:00:18] of is after [00:00:19] a all. The US house speaker is pushing back [00:00:23] against growing warnings over the risks posed by artificial [00:00:26] intelligence. Echoing President Donald Trump's claim that fears. about [00:00:30] AI are hoax. Mike Johnson says the real threat isn't [00:00:34] AI itself, but allowing China to pull ahead in the race to [00:00:37] dominate the technology. His comments come as pressure builds on Congress [00:00:41] to act after insiders at Open AI [00:00:44] of and Anthropic warned AI could [00:00:47] of pose an existential threat. They [00:00:51] can self-police, they can self-regulate. They don't need the government to tell them to slow [00:00:55] it down. If they want to slow it down they should, but we cannot exactly. We cannot [00:00:59] have a more. moratorium on the development of AI, okay, because then [00:01:03] we will lose our edge to China, and that has serious national security [00:01:06] of implications for every American family. But in a striking [00:01:10] political crossover, progressive senator Bernie Sanders and former [00:01:14] Trump strategist Steve Bannon [00:01:16] of have found common ground on AI. The [00:01:19] of unlikely allies appeared together a so-called pro-human event in [00:01:22] Washington, warning that unchecked AI could bring potentially [00:01:26] catastrophic consequences. [00:01:30] be very clear, a super intelligent AI that [00:01:34] escapes human control will not [00:01:37] simply be an American problem, it [00:01:41] of will not be a Chinese problem, it [00:01:44] will be humanities problem, and [00:01:48] that is why I hope very much that at [00:01:52] their AI summit next week, President Trump will [00:01:56] negotiate a comprehensive treaty with President Chi. [00:02:00] to establish pause on advanced AI [00:02:03] development and a ban on super [00:02:07] intelligence, so why are we letting the Chinese country's [00:02:10] party drive us, oh we have to this or China win, we have to do this or China win, we have to [00:02:14] do this or China is going to [00:02:16] of win. We should quarantine [00:02:20] now every aspect [00:02:24] of the ecosystem of artificial intelligence [00:02:27] away from the Chinese Communist Party. day we should cut [00:02:31] them off [00:02:32] of of all, and that's the [00:02:36] news for [00:02:36] in now, straight talk is [00:02:37] next. [00:02:46] of [00:02:55] of [00:03:00] The Iran war has [00:03:01] of shaken the Middle East, exposing weaknesses in America's regional security [00:03:05] order, as Washington considers reducing its military [00:03:09] footprint, questions are growing over the future of US leadership in the [00:03:13] of of region. Is American dominance giving way to new multipolar [00:03:16] world? I'll break it all down here on Straight [00:03:19] talk. [00:03:38] Hello and welcome to Straight talk. I'm Yusuf Farm. The Iran war has raised [00:03:42] fundamental questions about the future [00:03:45] a of the Middle East, global energy security [00:03:46] a and American leadership. The war's fallout has exposed [00:03:49] vulnerabilities in the U.S. Led security order. Iran has severely [00:03:53] damaged American [00:03:57] in of bases across the Gulf, threaten Washington's regional allies and disrupted shipping. through the straight of [00:04:00] Hormus, and now America's decades long military presence [00:04:04] in the Middle East is being rolled back. U.S. forces have left [00:04:08] their [00:04:08] of major bases in Syria are withdrawing from [00:04:11] a Iraq, and [00:04:12] of the Pentagon is even considering abandoning some gulf [00:04:16] of facilities battered by Iranian attacks. Amid that [00:04:19] uncertainty, new alliances are emerging: Turkia, Saudi [00:04:23] Arabia, and Pakistan [00:04:25] in have in formed the Mecca defense alliance, pledging to treat attack on one [00:04:29] as attack on. Meanwhile, Turkey Israel [00:04:32] of tensions are deepening as Israel strengthens military ties with [00:04:36] Greece through a 3.5 billion dollar deal. So as [00:04:40] old alliances are tested and new power centers emerge, what does [00:04:44] the future hold for American influence, and what would a truly [00:04:48] multipolar Middle East and World look like? Formore, [00:04:52] joining me now from Washington DC is [00:04:54] of Political Scientist George Friedman. He's also the chairperson [00:04:58] of geopolitical futures. [00:05:00] of George, thanks for joining me. I've read your books and consumed [00:05:04] lot of your content, and someone I've closely followed over the years [00:05:08] and I'm very happy to have you across from me right now to be [00:05:11] of able to unpack. many issues, and I want to begin with the war [00:05:15] in Iran and rather talk about event-based [00:05:18] scenarios, I want to talk about where on the time, where in the [00:05:22] timeline we are right now, are we at the beginning, the [00:05:26] middle or the end of this conflict between the United States [00:05:29] and Iran and Israel as distant third [00:05:32] belligerant? well, when you take a look at the war uh, [00:05:36] essentially it's about nuclear power, you've noticed that [00:05:40] President Trump is constantly talking about about their nuclear [00:05:43] capability for one reason that i don't think it [00:05:46] world understands, al-qaeda, it's [00:05:50] remnance, it's [00:05:51] not an operational force, is given sanctuary inside of [00:05:55] Iran, the nightmare the United States, this is the [00:05:59] anniversary the 9/11 attacks, is the idea of [00:06:02] nuclear 9/11 placing [00:06:06] a ship, nuclear weapon sailing into New York [00:06:09] Harbor, so I think this was... the [00:06:12] motivations behind what Trump did: [00:06:16] first he bombed their nuclear facilities, [00:06:20] that failed to stop them, he's constantly demanding [00:06:24] this as his course. i think this is the [00:06:27] fundamental force that led the United States to do this, the [00:06:31] fear of nuclear Iran, given its ideology and [00:06:35] given harbor to, but [00:06:39] if that's the case, why tear up the JCP? [00:06:43] away and then leave a certain amount of time [00:06:47] between a military intervention. I mean, you've kind of [00:06:50] unsackled around to pursue a nuclear weapon, in [00:06:54] that there's a couple years in between the military intervention and [00:06:58] tearing up the JCPO, so I mean strategically, it's kind [00:07:02] of like almost Trump is baiting Iran into getting a nuclear [00:07:05] weapon. Well, the war [00:07:08] began with a strategic error by the United States. [00:07:14] "they thought that the government, the civilian government of [00:07:17] Iran was the government of Iran, they destroyed [00:07:21] it, they decapitated Iran, they thought this would create the [00:07:24] chaos, the truth was that the [00:07:28] IRGC controls the country and [00:07:32] destroying the civilian leadership didn't do anything at it. now [00:07:36] why Trump didn't know this? I don't know, whether the [00:07:40] intelligence people told him that this was true or..." not, I don't understand what [00:07:43] happened, but the war began with an assumption [00:07:47] that was not true, and Iran has [00:07:50] been able to resist to this point, [00:07:53] and so this is a war that began [00:07:57] with, I think a misunderstanding the nature of Iran, that is [00:08:00] continuing, we're learning it [00:08:03] now, [00:08:05] so so what is the end of this war look like, [00:08:07] is it is the end the war mushroom cloud over [00:08:10] Tehran, is it? [00:08:16] and where does that leave American presence in the Middle East? I mean, will [00:08:20] these bases that have been hit quite hard in [00:08:24] Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, [00:08:27] Jordan, are they going to be rebuilt or is America going [00:08:31] to use this as excuse to downsize [00:08:35] presence and finally do that Pacific shift that we've been hearing about for a couple [00:08:39] decades? well, the fundamental interested. the United [00:08:42] States is disengaging from the eastern [00:08:46] hemisphere, for the past 80 years, the United States had the [00:08:50] role of managing [00:08:54] events [00:08:54] in the eastern hemisphere, it fought many wars, many dead [00:08:58] people from Vietnam to Iraq and so on and so forth, [00:09:02] this is something any president would be doing trying to [00:09:05] disengage from the exposure in the [00:09:09] far east, at the same time it's not an easy. thing to achieve [00:09:13] events happening and they're being drawing into it, [00:09:17] so what I see that is happening is what I would [00:09:20] know, we had expected to happen, [00:09:24] disengagement, but disengagements are hard, and [00:09:28] what the United States really wants to do is not to be responsible for [00:09:31] Israel, not to be responsible for the Saudis, but is [00:09:35] very happy, I think to see the evolution of [00:09:38] Turkey and its allies in Pakistan. and [00:09:42] in Saudi Arabia as new entity, so [00:09:46] from my point of view, this is the most important evolutions that's taking [00:09:50] place in your region, which is this [00:09:54] new environment in which we [00:09:58] will ask not what the Americans are going to be doing, but more as what the [00:10:01] Turkish Turks are going to be doing, so so [00:10:05] you [00:10:05] see T the probably the biggest candidate to fill the American void [00:10:09] in the region, I i want you to talk a little about that and [00:10:12] also the Mecca Alliance, this newly formed [00:10:16] defensive coalition between Turkia, Pakistan and Saudi [00:10:20] Arabia, will that be playing a big role, do you for see that being [00:10:24] a... successful endeavor that may be growing in the [00:10:27] future, enormous, [00:10:31] I predicted that the Turks and the [00:10:35] Iranians and I should say, I [00:10:38] predicted that the Turks and the Saudis would become [00:10:42] allies. Turkey is very powerful military [00:10:46] force, it needs economic support. [00:10:50] Saudi Arabia is very powerful economic [00:10:53] force. "it needs to be protected by [00:10:57] Turkey, so when we take a look at the situation [00:11:01] there, I knew there would be lions between [00:11:04] Turkey and Saudi Arabia, I was [00:11:07] surprised by Pakistan being included, but it was an excellent [00:11:11] inclusion, now Iran is actually [00:11:13] surrounded by Turkey [00:11:17] and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, it becomes their [00:11:21] problem, but the United States is not very good at disengaging. [00:11:25] from problems, so this comes question, how does the United States [00:11:29] disengage and allow the mecca [00:11:32] alliance to expand to Egypt perhaps [00:11:36] and to take responsibility for these [00:11:39] things? well, how do you [00:11:42] see the this handing the batan happening? mean, [00:11:46] obviously it's going to be gradualer phase, mean america is [00:11:50] not just going to pick up its bags and leave tomorrow, the mech [00:11:53] alliance is... isn't ready to handle that burden [00:11:57] right now either, it's still trying to build its mechanisms, how do [00:12:01] you see that gradual shift and the actors [00:12:05] inside the region, obviously Israel and iran two [00:12:09] countries that when they look at the mech alliance probably are [00:12:13] concerning uh, its presence is concerning to their own [00:12:16] national securities, how do you think that's going to play out as [00:12:20] well? well first [00:12:23] Israel, okay? Israel is a profoundly [00:12:27] weak country, it was created by the United [00:12:30] Nations, it is 71 miles [00:12:33] wide its widest point, it [00:12:37] was faced by hostile nations and [00:12:41] movements all around it, and it [00:12:43] adopted a strategy of preemptive strikes [00:12:47] constantly holding them off, in 73 it [00:12:51] almost lost the war because it didn't do that, [00:12:55] "this is no longer the reality in the region. It's very [00:12:58] important to understand that Israel is now a very different [00:13:02] position than it was before. It is now no [00:13:06] longer simply the major military power in [00:13:10] the region, Turkey is evolving, Pakistan has [00:13:13] evolved, other nations are evolving, so very [00:13:17] different Israel must emerge, and that's a political [00:13:21] problem, but you had said before that the United States can simply..." [00:13:25] leave, we simply left Vietnam, we left [00:13:28] Iraq, we left Afghanistan, we have that [00:13:32] ability to realize what the game is up to take [00:13:35] actions, so I think one the things that [00:13:39] the alliance has to be considering is the possibility [00:13:43] that in the end, if the Iranians don't collapse, and they're a great deal of difficulty [00:13:47] economically as well, if they don't reach an accommodation, the United [00:13:51] States could leave, and then you must evolve your... [00:13:55] organization much more rapidly than you're planning to, [00:13:59] well what's in, mean obviously the as as [00:14:03] we both agree, the united states can't leave, and there are examples of [00:14:07] it just leaving, but again, leaving a country versus leaving region, [00:14:10] especially region that's been so lucrative for the united states, [00:14:14] mean the oil here uh the amount of money that's pumped into [00:14:18] us treasury bills uh the investment in the united states [00:14:22] that's not something that uh washington wants to just leave [00:14:26] behind again, having a NATO member [00:14:30] here filling that security void, that's important, [00:14:34] but again that period of transition going to be tough, there's been a lot of [00:14:38] friction between Israel and Turkey, obviously Israel [00:14:42] very important for the United States, some would say it's closest sally, some [00:14:46] would say ally that gets it into a lot of trouble as well at the [00:14:49] same time, how's the friction between Israel and Turkia going to [00:14:53] play out in? washington, will the [00:14:56] us want to hand over to? is this something [00:15:00] that the Israel influence and lobby in Washington will try to [00:15:04] prevent? will will Israel to be the leader in this [00:15:08] region? well, let's first understand why Israel became so important for the [00:15:11] United States. its first support it was not the United States, it was [00:15:15] France gave it weapons and so on. the problem [00:15:19] was that the Soviets had become allies with the Syrians, [00:15:23] with the Egyptians and [00:15:38] "and that's not relevant, [00:15:41] so the American engagement in the Middle [00:15:45] East used to be security engagement trying to block the [00:15:48] Soviets, at this point it's going to be more of economic [00:15:52] relationship, it does not want the burdens of [00:15:56] sending troops there, and its relationship with [00:16:00] Israel, as you see in the United States, where Israel is [00:16:04] widely supported, that support has declined. among the [00:16:08] public and in the presidency [00:16:11] itself, so I think we're seeing a fundamental change, I think [00:16:15] Israel will survive, Israel will be [00:16:19] there, but the most important nation from the [00:16:23] United States point of view at this point in time [00:16:26] is this mecca alliance and particular Turkey, [00:16:30] that is going to emerge, as I said before, as the [00:16:34] major power in the region, and Israel will have to learn... to live with [00:16:38] that, otherwise it'll be disastrous, [00:16:41] so things are changing, the realities the past [00:16:45] that we were living with are obsolete, very different things are [00:16:49] emerging. i want to talk a little about [00:16:53] one the books that you wrote the next 100 years back in 2009, [00:16:57] i believe it was published i when you take into account one or two [00:17:01] years to formulate your thoughts and actually write the book, we can say it's [00:17:04] about two decades old now, you look back at your [00:17:08] predictions and you see the way it is [00:17:11] now, what lines up, [00:17:15] what is an overachievement, what is an underachievement compared to [00:17:19] what you pictured at 20 years ago, [00:17:22] well it's actually moving the way i thought, i said [00:17:26] there were three countries, japan, poland [00:17:30] and turkey, these would become major regional [00:17:33] powers, that transition is happening [00:17:36] now, [00:18:37] marginalized in terms their power and so on and so forth, and to a [00:18:41] large extent the turks [00:18:45] will have to deal with that problem in time. what's what [00:18:49] should turke's biggest concern be going forward or what could [00:18:53] derail it from achieving uh the place that [00:18:57] you predicted it would be in the next 100 [00:18:59] years? well the most important [00:19:03] things that are in the region are the non-state actors, [00:19:07] he's not. state actors are ideological, there are countries [00:19:11] that are supporting them, particularly Iran, and they tend to [00:19:14] destabilize the situation, not only for Israel, [00:19:18] mostly for Israel, but also for other countries, [00:19:22] so it's very difficult to have steady international [00:19:26] relations within countries in the middle east, so long these are the non-state [00:19:30] actors, so one the things that has to be [00:19:33] done, these non-state actors were primarily against Israel, [00:19:38] but also destabilizing the region as well, so the next step has to [00:19:41] be a modification, not an elimination, a [00:19:45] modification these non-state actors, then the [00:19:48] nations the region can begin talking without looking over their [00:19:52] shoulders. i want to ask you, [00:19:56] there's been a lot of talk about us being now [00:19:59] a multipolar order, are we a multipolar [00:20:03] world, is there a multipolar order governing that multipolar? [00:20:07] world or are we still in the last throws the unipolar [00:20:11] world? well, there was never a unipolar [00:20:15] world, there was a bipolar world, the United States and the Soviet [00:20:18] Union for 80 years faced each other, competed for each [00:20:22] other in the former European empires that collapsed after World [00:20:26] War II, and the Russians are no [00:20:30] longer major power, that they could not occupy in [00:20:33] almost five years Ukraine, means they are not, [00:20:37] possibly going to [00:20:38] go to war with europe, they're not a major power, their [00:20:42] economy is split, the fundamental relationship at this [00:20:46] point is between the United States and China. China has... [00:20:50] a fundamental problem: it produces more products [00:20:53] than it consume domestically. it is the world's second [00:20:57] largest economy, but in terms of per capita [00:21:01] income, the ability them to [00:21:04] buy the goods, the number 71. [00:21:08] the United States is their largest [00:21:12] exporting partner, they need the United States, they [00:21:16] cannot have hostile relation [00:21:17] to the United States. the United States can not [00:21:20] have be dependent economically on [00:21:24] China so long as they might go to war with [00:21:28] us, therefore the summits that are being held now are [00:21:32] being based on two relationships evolving, the [00:21:35] first the economic relationship, which is very [00:21:39] important to China, the second [00:21:42] is not having a military [00:21:45] confrontation, so we're used to the idea of a [00:21:49] Soviet America. [00:22:20] hemisphere and therefore they're looking for, I [00:22:23] think, leadership within the region. We've already said that [00:22:27] NATO must be responsible for the region, so who is [00:22:31] responsible [00:22:32] for the Middle East? I'm talking to the people who are going [00:22:36] to [00:22:36] be responsible for the Middle East, along with the Saudis and others, so [00:22:40] this is a fundamental change. We're thinking about the polar [00:22:44] worlds, it's much more complex now. [00:22:48] Yeah, it does look like inside. of that multipolar world, these [00:22:52] middle powers are definitely going to have very, very big roles. [00:22:56] i want to ask you about another prediction in uh, [00:23:00] 2030s, the collapse of Russia, do you [00:23:03] still see that happening with the current state the war in [00:23:07] Ukraine, and if Russia does collapse, where does [00:23:11] that leave NATO going forward? [00:23:14] well, Russia already lost [00:23:18] the... countries to the east of [00:23:22] it, the those countries, it lost the [00:23:25] south caucases, it lost western [00:23:28] Europe, the country that was the Soviet [00:23:31] Union is much reduced, this is [00:23:34] why they invade Ukraine, [00:23:37] so Hitler and st, Hitler and [00:23:41] Napolian invaded Russia, they lost because of how [00:23:45] deep it was, the Ukrainian border is about [00:23:49] 300. [00:24:20] fear, a concept that this Russia is a great power, it's going to invade [00:24:24] the Baltics or this or that, it's shown that it's not [00:24:28] a great military power, and in that [00:24:31] sense it has already collapsed it away, [00:24:34] it is nothing like what we thought was, therefore [00:24:37] NATO as an organization that was built to defend [00:24:41] against Russia is going evolve into something else or [00:24:44] collapse, so we're looking, we are living a period [00:24:48] like the end of world. two where everything is changing in the [00:24:52] world, definitely a very transformative period. i [00:24:56] want to ask you about two more alliances, the bricks [00:24:59] and the shanghai cooperation organization, how do you [00:25:03] see these two alliances within the framework the [00:25:06] future? well, in terms of military [00:25:09] alliance, they're not much, okay, and they have hostile [00:25:13] relation with each other, as [00:25:16] economic evolution, the... [00:25:20] evolve in various ways, so we must [00:25:23] distinguish something we didn't distinguish in the cold war. in the cold [00:25:27] war we were always looking at military power, now it's [00:25:30] military power plus economic power, and these [00:25:34] countries are united in certain [00:25:38] ways, but they have very different interests, very different positions and so on [00:25:42] and so forth, so a coalition these [00:25:45] countries is as being effective is very hard to [00:25:48] imagine. what one the major themes at [00:25:52] uh the SCO and probably at the Ricks is the status [00:25:56] of uh the dollar as the reserved currency, do you see [00:26:00] the the future the dollar in? danger and if something does [00:26:04] replace it, what could replace it? [00:26:08] well, firstly, the United States became the world's currency, [00:26:11] because the only valuable currency after World War II, the Britain [00:26:15] Woods agreements and all these other agreements created a structure the [00:26:19] world. One the things the United States [00:26:22] did was rejuvenate [00:26:25] Europe, okay? another thing it did was fight the [00:26:29] soviets all over the former European empire. [00:26:33] in the Congo as well, everywhere using foreign aid as [00:26:37] a tool, these things are not really relevant [00:26:41] to this point, so when we talk about the United [00:26:44] States [00:26:45] as the major currency, it's also a problem for the United States, so [00:26:49] for example recently when Japan was having economic powers, the [00:26:52] Americans had to go into [00:26:54] Japan, [00:26:59] this is always had a problem for the United States, but particularly. now that [00:27:03] there are powers economic powers like Japan, [00:27:06] like Saudi Arabia, all these countries, why should they notice [00:27:10] bear the burden of being the primary [00:27:14] currency? the primary currency is [00:27:17] whatever other nations accept, it is the US [00:27:21] primary currency because [00:27:22] it is the most stable currency and the most [00:27:26] capable in in the end of [00:27:29] time other nations will emerge, other current. will [00:27:32] emerge, so whether the dollar remains the [00:27:36] fundamental currency, I'm not sure the United States is eager [00:27:40] to see that happen, because many times the United States was drawn [00:27:44] economic situations to stabilize [00:27:46] it, if you could write a one [00:27:50] chapter add-on to the next 100 years with 20 years of [00:27:54] hindsight right now, what would that chapter be [00:27:57] titled and what would the predictions in that chapter [00:28:00] include? At this point, [00:28:03] the most important question in the world is the future of [00:28:07] Europe. The European [00:28:09] Union, its [00:28:12] GDP is larger than the [00:28:15] Chinese. If Europe got [00:28:18] together as nation state [00:28:21] away, with provinces and so on, it [00:28:25] would be a superpower. If it remains in this [00:28:28] condition it's in, which is likely to remain, it... [00:28:33] be victim the united states, china [00:28:36] and other countries picking them off, [00:28:39] so the most important geopolitical [00:28:42] question is, will the europeans join [00:28:46] together, and what happens is [00:28:49] eastern Europe, maybe the seas alliance pull together or something [00:28:53] like that, but the most important [00:28:57] things that are happening now are in south america, [00:29:01] which is devolving. rapidly economically, but also the [00:29:05] middle east, when we see this first [00:29:08] major Islamic alliance, I'll call it, that is [00:29:12] formed, suddenly the possibility the Middle East [00:29:16] becoming very wealthy, perhaps happy [00:29:20] region is possible. George Friedman, [00:29:23] fascinating discussion, thank you for doing [00:29:26] this. [00:29:30] And that's all for this edition of straight. talk with me Yusuf air, if you [00:29:34] got any comments, please share them with us on x at [00:29:37] straighttalt, also don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube [00:29:40] channel where you can find more exclusive content. Until next time, take [00:29:44] care and [00:29:45] goodbye. [00:30:18] fighting escalates in Yemen as Ansarolah Hothis and [00:30:22] Saudi-backed forces trade fresh [00:30:24] attacks. And the conflict is rattling [00:30:28] oil markets. Saudi Arabia reportedly halts oil loadings [00:30:32] at Hello and welcome [00:30:35] to TRT World, live from Istanbul, I'm Oscar Sabakti, [00:30:39] also ahead on the program, at least eight Palestinians are killed [00:30:43] in Israeli attacks in Gaza despite a [00:30:45] ceasefire, and US senator [00:30:49] Bernie Sanders and Trump Ally Steve Bannon unite over calls for [00:30:53] tougher oversight of [00:30:54] AI.