TRTWORLD — Strait Talk 20261011 103000 UTC 443 transcript segments Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp) Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] world.com. [00:00:09] You're watching TRT World. I'm Emily Angwin. Here's [00:00:12] a reminder of [00:00:13] of our main stories. At least 12 people have been killed and more than [00:00:16] 300 injured an attack on the King colored international [00:00:20] airport in [00:00:22] of Riad. Saudi Arabia has blamed the Anserallahuthi group in neighboring [00:00:25] Yemen. They have been launching attacks on Rehand in recent weeks, [00:00:29] but have yet to claim responsibility for this strike. [00:00:33] Pakistan's prime minister Shibas Sharif who joined Turquia in [00:00:37] signing the Mecca defense pact in August is calling it a heinous [00:00:41] attack. Donald Trump is weighing up a US [00:00:44] response. I think it's [00:00:48] in terrible. Well you're going to find out see, but I think it's [00:00:52] in [00:00:52] of terrible. Well, they're [00:00:56] able to defend. [00:00:57] of Look, the Saudis are good fighters, but I... think the attack was [00:01:00] terrible thing. a state of emergency has been [00:01:04] imposed in the Pakistan province of Pakutunkwa. in the past [00:01:08] hour, [00:01:09] a there are also reports that the head [00:01:10] of the provincial government has been arrested. the province is the [00:01:14] stronghold [00:01:15] of the PTI party of jailed former prime minister [00:01:17] of Imran in Khan. the move comes after days of [00:01:20] of marches by khan supporters who had wanted to march to the [00:01:23] capital. poland's government is holding [00:01:27] emergency meeting emid reports the prime minister and his deputy [00:01:31] were the target of assassination attempt. Senior ministers, [00:01:34] police and security officials are in discussions right now in [00:01:38] Warsaw. Police say they'd received information on [00:01:41] Saturday about a possible attack on Donald Tusk and his [00:01:45] deputy, who's also the defense minister. [00:01:48] Donald Trump says it's time for Ukraine to get new president, [00:01:52] following criticism from his Ukrainium counterpart a US [00:01:56] diesel deal with Russia. Voladimir Zelensky has called the move. [00:02:00] and warned it will only help Russia's war. The deal is [00:02:04] expected to lead to the immediate release of more than [00:02:06] 300,00 tons of Russian diesel with more to [00:02:10] come in the months ahead. And in India, Court [00:02:14] has released three cockroach genter party leaders after protests erupted in [00:02:18] the capital. They were arrested on Saturday [00:02:20] of along with [00:02:21] of thousands of others who took to the streets calling for the resignation [00:02:24] of the country's election chief. They accuse him of side-stepping [00:02:28] rules and regulations and making changes to the voter [00:02:56] Barely two months old, the Mecca Alliance is facing its first test. [00:03:00] Hothy attacks against Saudi Arabia have triggered collective defense [00:03:03] measures from Turkia, [00:03:05] of Pakistan, and the Kingdom. Could [00:03:07] of the crisis in Yemen turn the Alliance into the new force in Middle East [00:03:10] Security? I'll break it all [00:03:12] of down here on Straight [00:03:13] Talk. [00:03:21] a [00:03:25] a [00:03:32] Hello and welcome to Straight Talk, I'm Yusuf Arm. For decades, the US [00:03:36] has been the dominant security power in the Middle East, but its war with [00:03:40] Iran is challenging that order and the fallout is already taking [00:03:43] shape. Two months ago, Turkia, Saudi Arabia and [00:03:47] Pakistan signed new defense pact in Mecca. Under [00:03:51] the agreement, attack on one member is considered attack on [00:03:55] all. That commitment is being tested for the first time. The [00:03:58] trigger has come in yet. Yemen's ansurlah huti [00:04:02] fighters have stepped up attacks on the kingdom prompting the [00:04:06] alliance to activate its collective defense measures. The [00:04:09] Iran-backs group controls much of northern Yemen and has launched [00:04:13] missiles and drones at targets across Saudi Arabia from [00:04:17] airports and military sites in the south to oil infrastructure [00:04:21] further north. Turkey is providing Riyad with military equipment and [00:04:25] technical [00:04:29] in of support. The escalation comes as the regions already facing multiple. conflicts: the US and Israel are at war with [00:04:32] Iran, the straight of Hormus remains effectively closed, [00:04:36] and tensions between Turk and Israel are rising. So as [00:04:40] conflict reshapes the region, could the Mecca Alliance signal a [00:04:43] fundamental shift [00:04:44] of in who provides security in the Middle [00:04:46] East. Joining me now from [00:04:50] Virginia USA is Douglas McGregor. He's a retired US [00:04:54] colonel, combat veteran, a former senior advisor to the U.S. [00:04:58] Secretary of Defense and author, colnel, great to have [00:05:02] you on the show, mean obviously lot's been happening, i [00:05:05] know you're closely following everything in the region, and mean i [00:05:09] don't want to look back, i want to look forward in our time. together and [00:05:13] if we look at the war right [00:05:15] now in Iran, where in the timeline are we, are we near the beginning, [00:05:19] the middle, the end, and is the US closer to peace [00:05:23] or a ground invasion if those were the two ends the spectrum? well, I [00:05:27] think we should address this idea of a ground invasion right up [00:05:30] front, we really don't have an army capable of [00:05:34] invading Iran, I think that needs to be understood, the United [00:05:38] States army is rather small, it's a fraction of its [00:05:42] former we simply don't have the depth in terms of [00:05:46] soldiers, equipment, and it's very difficult to move those [00:05:49] forces right now into the region, so I i don't think we're talking [00:05:53] about a ground invasion, what you might see at the most in [00:05:57] the future is the use of potentially marine or [00:06:01] airborne forces to sees islands, one or [00:06:05] two in the Persian Gulf, or perhaps a toe hold [00:06:08] on [00:06:10] the on the Iranian state, and words [00:06:13] chabahar, perhaps, something like that, but [00:06:17] but no more. mean, the idea of flying into Iran [00:06:20] in search of enriched uranium, i think, has been [00:06:24] tried and largely dropped, so you're talking about very, very [00:06:28] limited use of airborn and amphibious infantry [00:06:32] and potentially some special ops, not much more. now [00:06:36] as far as the where are we in this thing, that's you, [00:06:40] it's very hazardous to guess. because the president has [00:06:44] made it clear as recently as today that he's going to [00:06:48] stay with us as long as it takes, he he's [00:06:51] also begun imply that he may direct [00:06:55] operations to begin sooner than the end of [00:06:58] October, much depends on events in the Gulf, but I think the [00:07:01] Iranians have recently demonstrated that they [00:07:05] actually control access to the Persian Gulf, they've struck [00:07:09] several ships that tried to slip through, and I think that... [00:07:13] put the lie so to say to the claims that President Trump has made that the [00:07:17] place is under our control and that nothing comes in or goes out [00:07:20] without without us and that moreover lots of oil is [00:07:24] escaping, that's simply not true, so at [00:07:28] this point it's hard to tell, we have some [00:07:32] constraints on us, we're constrained by the availability of [00:07:35] munitions and the production of missiles and rockets and so [00:07:38] forth, and we're also confronting very serious [00:07:42] financial crisis, how that will play out is anybody's [00:07:46] guess, but we've never confronted this kind [00:07:49] of national sovereign debt before, and we have an enormous [00:07:53] problem with our national credibility, nobody wants to [00:07:57] buy our debt, that's why the bond yields are rising, and as [00:08:01] they rise and inflation rises, it becomes that much more difficult [00:08:05] for us to service the debt, so it's hard for me to imagine this [00:08:09] dragging on for months into the future. "but [00:08:13] there is no end inside at this point, and we are by no means [00:08:17] at the end the conflict, let's let's leave it at that at this [00:08:20] stage. it [00:08:22] it it went from the four days to the four weeks to the four months, [00:08:26] to the forever, basically, yes. mean, your [00:08:29] lack of uncertainty regarding where in the timeline we are, what [00:08:33] type of operation could be launched, is that stemming from their not [00:08:37] being clearcut objective, being uh message to [00:08:41] the American look, because I [00:08:43] mean if there's no objective or no one knows exactly what the [00:08:47] objective is, I guess for someone who's been in many rooms where these types [00:08:51] of decisions are made like yourself, it's hard to understand what comes [00:08:54] next. Well, there is no coherent strategic [00:08:58] framework for the operation. I've never seen any [00:09:02] explicit uh strategic [00:09:05] goal that uh we could put [00:09:08] our, put on the wall and say, this is where we want to go, [00:09:12] this is... how long it's going to take, and this is what has to happen [00:09:16] before we stop, and to be quite frank, the entire war [00:09:20] is in Israely war, the United States has no [00:09:23] strategic interest in the destruction of Iran, never [00:09:26] has, and the notion that now we have to continue [00:09:30] to attack Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapon [00:09:34] seems ludicrous, foolish, because there is really [00:09:38] nothing to stop the Iranians from developing nuclear weapon except their decision not [00:09:42] to... do so, and on the other hand, our goal has [00:09:46] changed, I guess, our objective, if you want to call it that, has moved from simply [00:09:50] destroying the regime, to destroying whatever military [00:09:53] capabilities exist, that hasn't worked very well because [00:09:57] the underground missile cities, which are extremely difficult to reach, they're [00:10:01] spread out across the country, widely dispersed, we [00:10:04] haven't been able to utterly destroy command and control, [00:10:08] and we've discovered that if you kill one set of leaders, "you get [00:10:12] new set of leaders, not that that's really news, I mean that's been [00:10:16] everyone's experience throughout history, uh, if you destroy the [00:10:20] con, you get new con, if you kill the king, you get new king, much more [00:10:24] hardly." fail to why people fail to realize that is [00:10:28] is incredibly stupid to me, so I don't think that's it [00:10:32] anymore, I think now we're looking at find whatever capabilities you [00:10:35] think may be there and destroy them, including uh [00:10:39] nuclear enrichment capabilities if they can find them, and [00:10:43] then I think they just want induce the disintegration and [00:10:46] failure the Iranian state, so basically just [00:10:50] degradation and scorched earth type of policy, [00:10:53] what what's the middle? going to [00:10:55] look like after this war is over. I mean, we've heard the word [00:10:59] post-American Middle East, will it be a post-American Middle East, [00:11:03] will that be a quick exit? will it be a gradual [00:11:07] drawdown? will the bases uh throughout the Gulf be rebuilt? [00:11:11] mean a [00:11:11] lot of questions from gulf countries who [00:11:14] are concerned for their security futures rightfully? well, we've [00:11:18] demonstrated pretty conclusively that we cannot protect any the [00:11:22] countries in the middle east, we can't protect. [00:11:55] in the middle east, we don't live in Asia, we don't live in Europe, [00:11:59] we are preeminently a maritime and aerospace [00:12:02] power, when we move into area, it's inevitably [00:12:06] temporary, we're not permanently there, people look back on the [00:12:09] last 80 years in Europe or the middle east or elsewhere, and they [00:12:13] seem to think this is a permanent condition, [00:12:15] it isn't, so it's not a question of will [00:12:19] we ultimately withdraw, that's an absolute certainty, the [00:12:23] question is how [00:12:24] we do it? how quickly, how suddenly, we depend heavily on air and [00:12:28] naval power, and that's what you're seeing right now, you're trying to wage [00:12:31] war against continental power of 93 [00:12:35] million people, the place is almost the size of western Europe, [00:12:39] two and a half times the size of Texas, it's surrounded by [00:12:43] mountains that turn most the northern part the country into [00:12:47] a fortress and [00:12:48] then to the south you have impassible deserts, what a terrible place [00:12:51] to fight, so then [00:12:53] the next issue, and [00:12:54] I got to... [00:13:25] called Iran, but it's still Persia, the other is [00:13:29] Turkia, and that has the legacy the Ottoman Empire, [00:13:33] that again is another civilizational state with its with its [00:13:36] own brand of civilization, and then finally you have [00:13:40] Egypt, well, what lies between these states [00:13:44] and countries, essentially region that has been [00:13:47] molded by foreign powers, Great Britain, [00:13:51] France, the United States, those old borders. are going to [00:13:55] vanish, most of those structures will be gone, and it will [00:13:59] be up to the three powers that I just mentioned, primarily [00:14:03] I would argue Turkia and Iran to decide what the rest of [00:14:06] it looks like, and I hope that when that time comes that those [00:14:10] two powers will be smart enough to act [00:14:13] intelligently and swiftly, to resolve as many [00:14:17] differences as possible and to create new stability, because we will [00:14:21] be gone. Now the question is, and it's on everybody's mind, what [00:14:25] happens to Israel? well, right now, the Israeli [00:14:28] leadership has turned this war into an all or nothing [00:14:32] proposition. it's do or die for the Israeli [00:14:35] leadership, which i think is terrible mistake, because it [00:14:39] doesn't leave much room for Israel to exist. if they [00:14:42] insist on these genocidal impulses and [00:14:46] a plan that they think they can employ us to kill virtually all their [00:14:50] enemies in the region, they're going to fail, and it will be very [00:14:54] hard. [00:15:25] policy and i think he's correct, it looks like [00:15:29] maybe route a versus route b, [00:15:32] but x is the final destination still regarding the [00:15:36] different. candidates, but you painted a very [00:15:40] interesting and pessimistic picture for us in the region here. [00:15:43] mean, no US presence, obviously a brand new [00:15:47] security order, the potential for reorganization of [00:15:50] borders, so that looks like very chaotic [00:15:53] transition period. mean, when there's these types of [00:15:57] massive voids created in the middle east, obviously there's a lot of [00:16:00] opportunists in the region, lot of non-state actors who [00:16:04] have always tried to fill in these types of voids. "I want to ask you what [00:16:08] your thoughts about the Mecca alliance are, the alliance between Turkia, Saudi [00:16:12] Arabia and Pakistan. It was formed almost two months [00:16:16] ago to the day, and I believe this, in the next coming three [00:16:20] to four days it'll officially be ratified by the parliament, so [00:16:23] it'll officially come to existence. Can that be [00:16:27] something that at least fills majority the void, or is [00:16:31] that still a long way down the road? [00:16:34] Well, there are a couple of important points that need to be..." made, [00:16:38] i think the first one is that wherever we [00:16:42] go, wherever the french or the British went, we [00:16:46] enter region and for a specific period of time, our [00:16:50] presence, our influence distorts the normal [00:16:53] dynamics, power dynamics the region, and that's [00:16:57] one the reasons why our departure is going to [00:17:01] reassert the old dynamics, that's why great powers [00:17:05] like Turkia or Persia. and potentially [00:17:09] Egypt, although not in an aggressive way, are going to have [00:17:13] influence that they once previously had. [00:17:17] i am not as pessimistic as you. my view is that when [00:17:21] this status quo essentially [00:17:23] vanishes, you will have the opportunity to build new [00:17:27] things, but those new things will rest on old [00:17:31] foundations, which may turn out to be more [00:17:33] enduring and legitimate than what we have now. [00:17:37] so I I I'm not pessimistic in that sense, but of course [00:17:41] that depends on the leadership, and now you brought up key feature of all of this, [00:17:45] this uh mecca agreement, I think it's too soon [00:17:49] to tell uh, we can't pass [00:17:53] judgment on something that has only recently been signed, [00:17:57] and we don't know what's going to be implemented and how it will be [00:18:00] implemented, you know, again, I, [00:18:04] I don't know what Mr. Erdogan really plans. uh [00:18:08] what he really wants, you'll have to ask him, [00:18:12] he he has to sort out very clearly [00:18:14] and unambiguously, what this alliance, if [00:18:18] you want to call it an alliance, [00:18:20] i think it's more like the enton that brought france and [00:18:24] britain and ultimately Russia together before World War [00:18:27] One, does does tur does the turks [00:18:31] want to be locked into an automatic [00:18:34] trigger to enter conflict on the base? [00:19:37] as opposed to more conflict and war, in other words, find a settlement, [00:19:41] find a way to end the fighting down in Yemen and Southern [00:19:44] Arabia, because the people killing each other down [00:19:48] there are Muslims, they don't really have to kill each [00:19:52] other, and I think [00:19:54] that the Turks in particular could have a positive role there, now as far as the [00:19:58] Pakistanis are concerned, I think they're worried about [00:20:02] Saudi Arabia, which has been a source of financial support for [00:20:05] them, and I'm I'm sure everyone is worried about the holy [00:20:09] sides, how far do you go? [00:20:12] again, remember, small states and even though [00:20:16] Saudi Arabia is large a map, I considered to be a small state by [00:20:19] comparison, and this is true for Lithuania, Latvia, [00:20:23] Estonia, any number of small states around the world or Israel for that [00:20:27] matter, they're always looking for a larger [00:20:30] power that they can harness to their [00:20:34] interests, that they can find who will fight their... wars [00:20:38] for them, and I think that's [00:20:40] something that the new Mecca agreement should take into [00:20:44] consideration, first of all, who is the real [00:20:47] enemy? existential threat in the [00:20:51] region and [00:20:53] then decide if that's the case, if you were going to identify an [00:20:56] existential threat, organize against that, if [00:21:00] if the yemen are not an existential threat to the [00:21:04] region, if this is in fact a local war with local [00:21:08] origins, distant origins, long-term [00:21:10] origins, then there needs to be local solution as [00:21:14] opposed to a giant regional war that results from it, [00:21:18] iif that makes any sense. "no, no, it does, it makes a lot of [00:21:22] sense uh, but I mean, the Turks are very good at [00:21:26] laying out their military objectives when they enter into [00:21:30] something, and I mean, from what I've seen so far over the past 24 [00:21:33] hours, it's been very, very clear cut that they're just going [00:21:37] to be there a defensive capability and not cross the border [00:21:41] into Yemen any type of cross-border operation, but [00:21:45] aside from that, how do you see the Saudi Hothi [00:21:49] war uh..." progressing right now, mean obviously very difficult [00:21:53] geography, you have very veteran non-state actor [00:21:56] unit that's basically been at warfrat over decade, mean even [00:22:00] much further if you go back through Yemen's history, so they're very [00:22:04] warhard and very battleherdened and a geography [00:22:08] that's kind of hard to uproot them, what does victory look like for the [00:22:12] Saudis and what's the risk? the sauty [00:22:16] uh control of much of what today we call or used to... [00:22:20] Yaman is fairly recent, you've got to go back into the [00:22:23] 1930s and look at the fighting that ensued then [00:22:27] the resulted in the current borders between Saudi Arabia and [00:22:30] Yemen. The point that I think is important for everybody to [00:22:34] understand is that the war in Yemen between the Yeminies [00:22:38] or the Houtis and ultimately the House of [00:22:41] Sud pre-existed the Mecca [00:22:45] agreement. These are these are conflicts that quite [00:22:48] frankly. have nothing to do with Saudi Arabia's [00:22:52] relationship with Pakistan or Turkia, so I think that [00:22:56] should be taken into consideration, also remember, the people in [00:23:00] Gamen have been subjected to mass murder, [00:23:03] starvation, uh, thirst, I mean, the [00:23:07] treatment meeted out to them by the House of Squad is [00:23:10] reprehensible, so I would hope that Turkia [00:23:14] and Pakistan, Islamabad [00:23:16] and and Ancora will try to persuade. "the house have [00:23:20] saw to reach an agreement with these people in some fashion, if they [00:23:24] insist a ruthless war of extermination, I [00:23:28] would certainly back away from it, I think that would be very bad idea, so I hope [00:23:32] the if the if the Turks are willing to provide some [00:23:35] defensive support uh to cities in terms of air [00:23:39] defense, that's fine, but I I would hope they would [00:23:43] otherwise stay out of this, because I see no benefit to the Turks or the [00:23:46] Pakistanis from participating in it. Well, it it's definitely [00:23:50] going to be a trial by fire for very new [00:23:53] defensive uh coalition, so we're going to have to see how uh [00:23:57] it operates without much interoperability between the Pakistanis and the [00:24:01] Turks, obviously, one them with domestic and American hardware, the other one [00:24:05] with lot of Chinese hardware, and the Saudis [00:24:08] obviously not up to the professional level of a [00:24:12] NATO standard army, so it's going to be interesting to see how these [00:24:15] kinks get worked out with all zero joint exercises [00:24:19] so... "that'll be something to follow, but bubbling beneath the [00:24:23] surface of everything that we've talked about is tensions between Israel and [00:24:27] Turkia. now after the housting of [00:24:30] Assad and effectively the removal [00:24:34] of Iran's influence in Syria, I mean I I first [00:24:38] thought, wow, this must be great for Israel, they got rid of [00:24:41] Iran from Syria, that land bridge from Hezbulat [00:24:45] to Tehran has now been broken, the Turks are there a NATO [00:24:48] country, israel." are probably indirectly benefiting and happy, [00:24:52] but a couple months afterwards I began seeing this uh [00:24:56] Turkey is the next Iran didn't take it seriously at first, then saw someone [00:25:00] like Naftali bendet, a former prime minister and opposition party [00:25:03] leader repeat it, then I started seeing that American Israeli [00:25:07] lobby cutouts uh repeating it and said, okay, [00:25:11] someone's putting some money behind this message now, because it's getting propagated, [00:25:15] I started taking a lot more seriously, and now we're starting to see some [00:25:19] type of... indirect action, the bombing of base in [00:25:23] Syria, lot more, lot more rhetoric at the [00:25:27] prime minister level by Netanyahu, [00:25:31] where is this going? there were many voices behind the scenes in [00:25:35] Israel, over the last 10 to 15 years [00:25:38] warned consistently against the notion that somehow [00:25:42] or another was in Israel's interest to drive [00:25:46] Assad's government out of Syria, in other words to... [00:26:02] went in and weaponized the kurds as did the [00:26:06] Israelis as another means of undermining and weakening [00:26:10] assad and so we have new Syria and the new [00:26:14] Syria is now problematic for [00:26:16] Israel. I don't know why the Israelis ever thought that a [00:26:20] government that came to power after Assad, [00:26:24] that was as strongly Islamist as the government has turned out to be in [00:26:27] Damascus would ever be friendly to Israel. [00:26:31] It it just makes no sense. [00:27:32] those that they dictate, so that means that [00:27:37] israel Israel project, wants its and [00:27:38] greater by definition that means most of Syria, half of [00:27:42] Iraq, nearly half of Arabia, a large portion [00:27:45] of Egypt, and now we can all say that's [00:27:48] insane, but unfortunately we're [00:27:52] supporting it, we're backing it, and there is no [00:27:56] pressure, none whatsoever from Washington on Mr. [00:27:59] Netanyahu to do anything different, if you go back to... [00:28:04] which was the last major war between Israel, [00:28:08] Egypt and Syria, there was enormous pressure brought to bear by [00:28:12] Nixon and others on Israel to reach an [00:28:15] accommodation, certainly with Egypt, and that [00:28:19] paid offensively, and many of us thought, well, this is a positive development, [00:28:22] perhaps there's a way to make this work in the future across the [00:28:26] region, that opportunity doesn't exist, so the [00:28:30] question is, sit [00:28:33] and and Ankara wait until the Israelis end up in [00:28:36] Damascus, do you sit and wait until you're [00:28:40] confronted with enemies coming at you from [00:28:43] Israel, I don't know, or do you [00:28:46] act? And then the question is, well Turkey is still, Turkey [00:28:50] is still a member of NATO, but I'm not sure NATO is terribly meaningful [00:28:54] anyway, and I don't think the Turks should be too concerned about [00:28:58] that, NATO or the European components of it are certainly. [00:29:02] interveing in that [00:29:11] to be now a permanent fixture, at least for [00:29:13] the moment, is an Israeli government that will not [00:29:15] compromise, and that boads ill for the future of [00:29:19] turkish influence and power in the region. colonel Douglas McGregor, thank [00:29:23] you very much, very enlightening [00:29:25] conversation. [00:30:09] Warnings of a dangerous escalation after a missile strike on Saudi [00:30:13] Arabia's main airport kills 12. The attack is being blamed on [00:30:17] Yemen's hoothies, [00:30:19] now Donald Trump is considering a US response. [00:30:23] Hello and welcome to TRT World Live from Istanbul, I'm Emily [00:30:26] Angwin. Also, ahead on the program, Pakistan declares [00:30:30] a state of emergency a northwestern. province, roads [00:30:33] blocked and the internet cut in the stronghold of jailed former prime [00:30:37] minister Imran Khan. Donald Trump says Ukraine [00:30:41] should get new president after securing an oil deal [00:30:45] with Russia. And down, but not out. India's [00:30:49] youth led Cockroach movement says they will continue protests [00:30:53] demanding the election commissioner [00:30:55] resigns.