TRTWORLD — Strait Talk 20261011 203000 UTC 449 transcript segments Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp) Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Machine transcription. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a verbatim quotation record. [00:00:00] critic you think a country by its population, it has to [00:00:03] be by its action as well. in last [00:00:07] of couple of years we have been looking at Narendra [00:00:09] Modi's style of governance and how [00:00:13] India is being branded in [00:00:16] of one religion, one almost like a ethno state where [00:00:20] minorities, attacks on minorities are [00:00:22] highlighted. if you look at the last election in [00:00:26] West Bengal of India, you have been seeing that, same [00:00:30] strategy was implied and there was accudition [00:00:34] of the minority voters being removed to [00:00:38] secure the ruling party BJP's [00:00:42] in anonymous universal victory [00:00:45] there, [00:00:46] of many analysts are now fearful that if [00:00:49] Narendra Modi taken the [00:00:51] of same strategy and it just [00:00:54] prolong its own Modi's rule over the India [00:00:58] by making the voter list. that only helps his [00:01:01] party and shaib, very quickly, before i let [00:01:05] you go, [00:01:05] i have to ask you this question, if if we keep [00:01:08] seeing such detentions and [00:01:11] in arrests and the use of violence against [00:01:14] protesters, what do you think the future holds for the [00:01:18] Indian government, do you think these protests have enough [00:01:21] power to bring about a change in [00:01:24] India? great question, if you look [00:01:28] at the cockros jon is [00:01:31] evolved of this political scenario and the very first [00:01:35] large protest they did just a couple of months ago where i was talking [00:01:39] to your very tv platform where the gens [00:01:43] frustration over the education system and the [00:01:46] similar type of crackdown but at least at the end the government [00:01:50] step back the minister education minister had to resign [00:01:54] now it depends on how it's very early to say [00:01:58] whether this protest will ' really and mudhis [00:02:02] or at least shrink in the mudis role in India, we have to see it, [00:02:05] but this gives us a [00:02:09] symptom, kind of hope to the young generation that if you [00:02:12] can continue build the [00:02:15] of of momentum and can spread this movement, not only Delhi but other big cities and [00:02:19] villages and towns in India, there are a huge [00:02:22] possibly sh, unfortunately we are running out of [00:02:26] time, I really appreciate your taking out the time and thanks very much for joining. The news [00:02:30] continues here on TRT World, goodbye for [00:02:32] now, [00:02:49] barely two months old, the Mecca Alliance is facing its first [00:02:53] test. Pothi attacks against Saudi Arabia have triggered collective [00:02:57] defense measures from Turkia, Pakistan, and the... could [00:03:01] of the crisis in yemen turn the alliance into the new force in middle east [00:03:04] security? i'll break it all [00:03:06] of down here on straight [00:03:07] talk. [00:03:15] a [00:03:19] a [00:03:26] hello and welcome to straight talk. i'm for decades the... [00:03:30] has been the dominant security power in the Middle East, but its war with [00:03:34] Iran is challenging that order and the fallout is already [00:03:37] taking shape. two months ago, Turkia, Saudi Arabia and [00:03:41] Pakistan signed new defense pact in Mecca. Under the [00:03:45] agreement, attack on one member is considered attack on [00:03:48] all. That commitment is being tested for the first time. The [00:03:52] trigger has come in Yemen. Yemen's ansarulah Houti [00:03:56] fighters have stepped up attacks on the kingdom prompting. the alliance [00:04:00] to activate its collective defense measures. The Iran-back group [00:04:04] controls much of Northern Yemen and has launched missiles and drones [00:04:08] that targets across Saudi Arabia, from airports and military [00:04:12] sites in the south to oil infrastructure further north. [00:04:16] Turkey is providing Riyad with military equipment and technical [00:04:19] support. The escalation comes as the regions already facing [00:04:23] multiple conflicts. The US and Israel are at war with [00:04:26] Iran. The straight of Hormus remains [00:04:29] of effectively closed. and tensions between Turk and Israel are [00:04:33] rising, so as conflict reshapes the region, could the Mecca [00:04:36] Alliance signal a fundamental shift [00:04:38] of in who provides security in the Middle [00:04:40] East? Joining me now from [00:04:44] Virginia, USA is Douglas McGregor, he's [00:04:47] a retired US colonel, combat veteran, a former senior [00:04:51] advisor to the US secretary of defense and an author. [00:04:55] Colonel, great to have you on the show. I mean, obviously [00:04:58] lots [00:04:59] been happening, I... "you're closely following everything in the [00:05:02] region, and I mean, I don't want to [00:05:04] look back, I want to look forward in our time together, and if we look [00:05:08] at the war right now in Iran, where in the timeline are we, [00:05:12] are we..." near the beginning, the middle, the end, and is the US [00:05:16] closer to peace or a ground invasion if those were the two ends the [00:05:19] spectrum? well, I think we should address this idea of a ground [00:05:23] invasion right up front. uh, we really don't have [00:05:27] an army capable of invading Iran. I think that needs to be [00:05:30] understood. The United States Army is rather [00:05:34] small, it's a fraction of its former self. We simply [00:05:38] don't have the depth in terms of soldiers, equipment, and [00:05:42] it's... very difficult to move those forces right now into the region, [00:05:46] so I i don't think we're talking about a ground invasion, what you might see at [00:05:50] the most in the future is the use of potentially [00:05:53] marine or airborne forces to [00:05:56] sees islands, one or two in the Persian [00:06:00] Gulf, or perhaps a toe hold on [00:06:03] the on the Iranian state, another words [00:06:07] chabahar, perhaps something like that, but [00:06:11] but no more, I mean the idea. of flying into Iran [00:06:14] in search of enriched uranium, I think has been [00:06:18] tried and largely dropped, so you're talking about very, very [00:06:22] limited use of airborn and amphibious infantry [00:06:26] and potentially some special ops, not much more. now [00:06:30] as [00:06:30] far as the where are we in this thing, that's you, it's [00:06:34] very hazardous to guess, because the president has made [00:06:38] it clear as recently as today that he's going to stay. [00:06:42] with us as long as it takes, he he's [00:06:45] also begun imply that he may direct [00:06:49] operations to begin sooner than the end of [00:06:52] October, much depends on events in the Gulf, but I think the [00:06:55] Iranians have recently demonstrated that they [00:06:59] actually control access to the Persian Gulf, they've struck [00:07:03] several ships that tried to slip through, and I think [00:07:06] that's put the lie so to say to the claims that President Trump has [00:07:10] made that the place is under our control. "and that nothing comes in or [00:07:14] goes out without without us and that moreover lots of oil [00:07:17] is escaping, that's simply not true, so [00:07:21] at this point it's hard to tell, we have some [00:07:25] constraints on us, we're constrained by the availability of [00:07:29] munitions and the production of missiles and rockets and so [00:07:32] forth, and we're also confronting very serious [00:07:36] financial crisis, how that will play out is anybody's [00:07:40] guess, but we've never confronted." [00:08:12] conflict, let's let's leave it at that at this stage, yeah, it [00:08:16] it it went from the four days to the four weeks, to the four months, to [00:08:20] the forever, basically, yes, mean, your [00:08:23] lack of uncertainty regarding where in the timeline we are, what [00:08:27] type of operation could be launched, is that stemming from their not [00:08:31] being clear cut objective, being uh message to [00:08:35] the American public, because I mean if there's no objective [00:08:39] or no one knows exactly what the objective is, "I guess for someone [00:08:43] who's been in many rooms where these types of decisions are made like [00:08:46] yourself, it's hard to understand what comes next. Well, there [00:08:50] is no coherent strategic framework for the operation. [00:08:54] I've never seen any explicit [00:08:57] strategic goal that we could [00:09:01] put our, put on the wall and say, this is where we want [00:09:05] to go, this is how long it's going to take, and this is what has to [00:09:09] happen before we stop, and to be quite frank..." "the [00:09:13] entire war is an Israeli war, the United States has [00:09:17] no strategic interest in the destruction of Iran, never [00:09:20] has, and the notion that now we have to continue [00:09:24] to attack Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapon [00:09:28] seems ludicrous, foolish, because there is really [00:09:32] nothing to stop the Iranians from developing nuclear weapon except their decision [00:09:36] not to do so, and on the other hand, our goal [00:09:39] has changed, I guess, our objective, if you want [00:09:41] to call it." has moved from simply destroying the regime [00:09:45] to destroying whatever military capabilities exist, that [00:09:49] hasn't worked very well because the underground missile cities which are [00:09:53] extremely difficult to reach, they're spread out across the country, widely [00:09:57] dispersed, we haven't been able to utterly destroy command [00:10:01] and control, and we've discovered that if you kill one set [00:10:05] of leaders, you get new set of leaders, not that [00:10:09] that's really news, I mean that's been everyone's experience throughout history. [00:10:13] uh, if you destroy the con, you get new con, if you kill the king, you get [00:10:17] new king, much more hard, why people fail, why people fail to [00:10:20] realize that is is incredibly stupid to me, so I don't... [00:10:25] think that's it anymore, i think now we're looking at find whatever [00:10:29] capabilities you think may be there and destroy them, [00:10:31] including uh nuclear enrichment capabilities if [00:10:35] they can find them, and [00:10:37] then i think they just want induce the disintegration and failure [00:10:41] the Iranian state, so basically just degradation and [00:10:44] scorched earth type of policy. what what's the middle [00:10:48] east going to look like after this war is over? mean, [00:10:52] we've heard the word post American middle east. will it be a post-american middle [00:10:56] east? will that be a quick exit? will it be a [00:11:00] gradual drawdown? will the bases uh throughout the gulf be [00:11:04] rebuilt? mean a lot of questions from gulf [00:11:07] countries who are who are concerned for their security futures [00:11:11] rightfully? well we've demonstrated pretty conclusively that we [00:11:14] cannot protect any the countries in the middle east, we can't [00:11:18] protect the the gulf statelets, we can't protect [00:11:22] Saudi Arabia, and I don't think we can... protect Israel, the [00:11:26] Israelis of course are a little more robust, and we have [00:11:30] invested more heavily there, particularly in terms of missile [00:11:33] defense, but it's [00:11:35] not a long-term solution, and that's the key to this whole [00:11:39] thing. there's something that everybody that lives in the region needs [00:11:43] to understand. we are not permanent party in [00:11:47] the region, that is, we don't live in the middle east, we don't live in [00:11:50] Asia, we don't live in Europe, we are preeminently a [00:11:54] marathon. and aerospace power, when we move into [00:11:58] area, it's inevitably temporary, we're not [00:12:01] permanently there, people look back on the last 80 years in europe or the middle [00:12:05] east or elsewhere, and they seem to think this is a permanent [00:12:09] condition, [00:12:09] it isn't, so it's not a question of will [00:12:13] we ultimately withdraw, that's an absolute certainty, the [00:12:17] question is how [00:12:18] we do it, how quickly, how suddenly, we depend heavily on air and naval [00:12:22] power, and that's what you're seeing right now, you're trying. to wage war [00:12:26] against continental power of 93 million people, the place [00:12:30] is almost the size of western Europe, two and a half times the size [00:12:34] of Texas. it's surrounded by [00:12:37] mountains that turn most the northern part the country into [00:12:41] a fortress and then to the south you have impassible deserts. what [00:12:44] a terrible place to fight. so then the next issue, and i got to [00:12:48] answer this question for you, what does this all look like when it's over? well, the first thing [00:12:52] i think we can say with almost complete. [00:13:25] has the legacy the Ottoman Empire, that again is another civilizational [00:13:29] state with its with its own brand of civilization, and [00:13:33] then finally you have Egypt, well what lies between [00:13:36] these states and countries, essentially [00:13:40] region that has been molded by foreign powers, [00:13:44] Great Britain, France, the United States, those old [00:13:48] borders are going to vanish, most of those structures will be [00:13:51] gone, and it will be up to the three powers that I just [00:13:55] mentioned, primarily, I would argue Turkia and [00:13:59] Iran to decide what the rest of it looks like, and I hope that [00:14:03] when that time comes that those two powers will be smart enough [00:14:07] to act intelligently and swiftly, to resolve [00:14:10] as many differences as possible and to create new stability, [00:14:14] because we will be gone. now the question is, and it's on everybody's [00:14:17] mind, what happens to Israel? well, right [00:14:21] now the Israeli leadership has turned this war into an... [00:14:55] government with new leadership that is willing [00:14:58] to see things differently and live in the region as a [00:15:02] neighbor, that could be changed, but right [00:15:05] now, much as your foreign minister said, i think within the last [00:15:09] 24 hours and i think he's correct, he said he sees no [00:15:13] evidence that the election in Israel is going to change anything, certainly [00:15:17] nothing in terms of foreign and defense policy, and i think he's [00:15:20] correct, it looks like maybe route [00:15:24] a versus route B, but X is the final [00:15:27] destination still uh regarding the different Israeli candidates, [00:15:31] but you painted a very interesting and pessimistic [00:15:35] picture for us in the region here, I'm... No US [00:15:39] presence, obviously a brand new security order, the potential for [00:15:42] reorganization of borders, so that looks like very [00:15:46] chaotic transition period. I mean, when there's [00:15:50] these types of massive voids created in the middle east, obviously there's [00:15:54] a lot of opportunists in the region, lot of non-state [00:15:57] actors who have always tried to fill in these types of [00:16:00] voids. I want to ask you what your thoughts about the Mecca alliance [00:16:04] are, the alliance between Turkia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. "it was formed [00:16:08] almost two months ago to the day, and I [00:16:11] believe this, in the next coming three to four days it'll officially be [00:16:15] ratified by the parliament, so it'll officially come to [00:16:19] existence. Can that be something that at least fills [00:16:23] majority the void, or is that still a long way down the [00:16:27] road? Well, [00:16:29] there are a couple of important points that need to be made. I think the [00:16:33] first one is that wherever we go, [00:16:37] wherever..." [00:17:07] that they once pre previously had. i am not as [00:17:11] pessimistic as you. my view is that when this [00:17:15] status quo essentially [00:17:17] vanishes, you will have the opportunity to build new [00:17:21] things, but those new things will rest on old [00:17:25] foundations, which may turn out to be more [00:17:27] enduring and legitimate than what we have [00:17:30] now. so i i'm not pessimistic in that [00:17:34] sense, but of course that depends on the leadership, and now you... brought up [00:17:37] key feature of all of this, this uh mecca [00:17:41] agreement, i think it's too soon to [00:17:43] tell uh, we can't pass [00:17:47] judgment on something that has only recently been signed [00:17:51] and we don't know what's going to be implemented and how it will be [00:17:54] implemented, you know again, i don't [00:17:58] know what mr. erdogan really plans uh [00:18:02] what he really wants, you'll have to ask him, [00:18:06] he he has to sort out very... clearly and [00:18:09] unambiguously what this alliance, if you want to call [00:18:13] it an alliance, i think it's more like the entonces that [00:18:17] brought France and Britain and ultimately Russia together before World War [00:18:21] One. does does tur the Turks [00:18:24] want to be locked into an automatic [00:18:27] trigger to enter conflict on the [00:18:31] basis of this agreement. I think World War I was a [00:18:34] catastrophe largely because the people... that allied themselves [00:18:38] against Germany and Austria and [00:18:40] then eventually against the Ottomans did so on the basis [00:18:44] of [00:18:44] a of an automatic trigger. In other words, country x [00:18:48] does this, that means y, z and so forth, all have to join [00:18:52] it. So I think that's that's something has to be sorted [00:18:55] out. There's another issue here, [00:18:59] tragically, as we saw during world war one, [00:19:02] Christians don't have any trouble murdering each other. I think there's a [00:19:06] lot of evidence. [00:20:07] small states, [00:20:09] and even though Saudi Arabia [00:20:11] is large a map, I consider to be a small state by [00:20:13] comparison, and this is true for Lithuania, Latvia, [00:20:17] Estonia, any number of small states around the world or Israel for that [00:20:20] matter, they're always looking for a larger [00:20:24] power that they can harness to their [00:20:28] interests, that they can find who will fight their wars [00:20:32] for them, and I think that's [00:20:34] something that the new mecca agreement. should take into [00:20:38] consideration: first of all, who is the real [00:20:41] enemy? who [00:20:43] is the existential threat in the region, and then [00:20:47] decide if that's the case, if you were going to... identify an [00:20:50] existential threat, organize against that, [00:20:54] if if the yemenis are not an existential threat to the [00:20:57] region, if this is in fact a local war with [00:21:01] local origins, distant origins, long-term [00:21:04] origins, then there needs to be local solution as [00:21:08] opposed to a giant regional war that results from it. [00:21:12] i don't know if that makes any sense, no it does, it makes a lot of [00:21:16] sense uh, but mean the turks are very good at. [00:21:20] laying out their military objectives when they enter into [00:21:24] something, and I mean, from what I've seen so far over the past 24 [00:21:27] hours, it's been very, very clear cut that they're just going to be [00:21:31] there a defensive capability and not cross the border into [00:21:35] Yemen and any type of cross-border operation, but [00:21:39] aside from that, how do you see the Saudi Hothi [00:21:43] war uh progressing right now? I mean, obviously very difficult [00:21:46] geography, you have very veteran non state actor [00:21:50] unit that's basically been at war for at over decade, mean even [00:21:54] much further if you go back through Yemen's history, so they're very [00:21:58] war- hardened, very battle hardened and a geography [00:22:02] that's kind of hard to uproot them, what is victory look like for the [00:22:06] Saudis and what's the risk? the Saudi [00:22:10] uh control of much of what today we call or used to call [00:22:14] Yayen is fairly recent, you've got to go back into the [00:22:17] 1930s and look at the fighting that... ensued then [00:22:21] that resulted in the current borders between Saudi Arabia and [00:22:24] Yemen. The point that I think is important for everybody to [00:22:28] understand is [00:22:29] that the war in Yemen between [00:22:32] the Yeminies or the Houtis and ultimately the House of [00:22:35] Squad preexisted the Mecca [00:22:39] agreement. these these are conflicts that quite [00:22:42] frankly have nothing to do with Saudi Arabia's [00:22:46] relationship with Pakistan or Turkia. So I think [00:22:50] that should be taken into consideration. Also, remember, the people in [00:22:54] Yamen have been subjected to mass murder, [00:22:57] starvation, thirst. I mean, the [00:23:00] treatment made it out to them by the House of Squad is [00:23:04] reprehensible. So I would hope that Turkia [00:23:08] and Pakistan, Islamabad [00:23:11] will try to persuade the house of saw to reach [00:23:15] an agreement with these people in some fashion if they insist a [00:23:19] ruthless war. extermination, I would certainly back [00:23:23] away from it, I think that would be very bad idea, so I hope the [00:23:26] if the if the turks are willing to provide some defensive [00:23:30] support to cities in terms of air [00:23:33] defense, that's fine, but I I would hope they would [00:23:37] otherwise stay out of this, because I see no benefit to the Turks or the [00:23:40] Pakistanis from participating in it. Well, it's definitely going [00:23:44] to be a trial by fire for very new [00:23:47] defensive uh coalition, so... we're going to have to see how uh [00:23:51] it operates without much interoperability between the Pakistanis and the [00:23:55] Turks, obviously, one them with domestic and American hardware, the other one [00:23:59] with lot of Chinese hardware, and the Saudis [00:24:02] obviously not up to the professional level of a [00:24:06] NATO standard army, so it's going to be interesting to see how these [00:24:09] kinks get worked out with all zero joint exercises, [00:24:13] so that'll be something to follow, but bubbling beneath the [00:24:17] surface of everything that we've talked about is tensions between Israel [00:24:21] and now after the housting of [00:24:24] Assad and effectively the removal [00:24:28] of Iran's influence in Syria, I mean I I first [00:24:32] thought, wow, this must be great for Israel, they got rid of Iran [00:24:36] from Syria, that land bridge from Hezbulat to Tehran [00:24:40] has now been broken, the Turks are [00:24:42] there a NATO country, Israelis are probably indirectly benefiting [00:24:45] and happy, but a couple months afterwards I began seeing this uh... [00:24:50] truth is the next iran didn't take it seriously at first, then saw someone [00:24:54] like naftali bendet, a former prime minister and opposition party [00:24:57] leader repeat it, then I started seeing that American [00:25:01] Israeli lobby cutouts uh repeating it and said, [00:25:05] okay, someone's putting some money behind this message now because it's getting [00:25:09] propagated, I started taking a lot more seriously, and now we're starting [00:25:12] to see some type of indirect action, the bombing of base [00:25:16] in Syria, uh, lot more uh... lot more [00:25:20] rhetoric at the prime minister level by [00:25:22] Netanyahu, where is this [00:25:25] going? there were many voices behind the scenes in [00:25:29] Israel, over the last 10 to 15 years [00:25:32] warned consistently against the notion that somehow [00:25:36] or another was in Israel's interest to drive [00:25:40] Assad's government out of Syria, in other words to replace the [00:25:44] Assad government with something else. It's [00:25:48] happened, we joined... [00:26:32] Yeah, well that's a matter for Ankara to decide, but I think [00:26:36] Ankara now realizes that they have de [00:26:39] facto created a shared border with Israel, [00:26:43] because Turkish influence now extends down into Damascus [00:26:47] and across Syria, and the [00:26:50] question is, how do the Israelis and and the turks deal with [00:26:54] this? The problem for Turkey and I think [00:26:58] for the entire region at this point is really this greater Israel. [00:27:02] project if you were dealing with an Israeli government that say [00:27:06] existed 25, 30 years ago, [00:27:10] whose aims were actually quite limited and was interested [00:27:14] in peace and prosperity, you might have [00:27:18] the opportunity to sit down and negotiate. this government doesn't [00:27:22] seem to be very interested in peace and prosperity under any circumstances [00:27:26] except those that they dictate. so that means that [00:27:29] Israel wants its greater Israel project. "and by [00:27:33] definition that means most of Syria, half of Iraq, nearly [00:27:37] half of Arabia, a large portion of Egypt, and [00:27:41] now we can all say that's insane, but [00:27:44] unfortunately we're supporting it, we're backing [00:27:48] it, and there is no pressure, none whatsoever from [00:27:52] Washington on Mr. Netanyahu to do anything different, if you go [00:27:55] back to 1973, which was the [00:27:59] last major war between Israel, Egypt." [00:28:02] Syria, there was enormous pressure brought to bear by Nixon and [00:28:06] others on Israel to reach an accommodation, [00:28:10] certainly with Egypt, and that paid off handsomely, and [00:28:14] many of us thought, well, this is a positive development, perhaps there's a way to make this work [00:28:18] in the future across the region, that opportunity doesn't [00:28:22] exist, so the question is, [00:28:26] do do you in Ankara sit and wait until the [00:28:29] Israelis end up in Damascus? "do you [00:28:33] sit and wait until you're confronted with enemies coming at you from [00:28:37] Israel? uh, I don't know, or do you [00:28:40] act? and then the question is, well, Turkey is still, [00:28:44] Turkey is still a member of NATO, but I'm not sure NATO is terribly [00:28:48] meaningful anyway, and I don't think the Turks should be too concerned about [00:28:52] that, NATO or the European components of it are certainly not going [00:28:56] to intervene in that mess. I i don't have any easy [00:29:00] answers, what I'm trying to do though is tell you..." that what's [00:29:03] changed and seems to be now a permanent fixture, at least for the [00:29:06] moment, is an Israeli government that will not [00:29:09] compromise, and that boads ill for the future of [00:29:13] turkish influence and power in the region. Colonel Douglas McGregor, [00:29:17] thank you very much for very enlightening [00:29:19] conversation. [00:29:23] And that's all for this edition of Straight talk with me, Yusuf arm. If you got [00:29:27] any comments, please share them with us on X at [00:29:30] Strat. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our youtube channel [00:29:34] where you can find more exclusive content. until next time, take care and [00:29:38] goodbye. [00:29:49] intuitive, inclusive, informative [00:29:52] trtworld.com. [00:30:09] Saudi authorities say another air strike hits the international airport in Riyadh for [00:30:13] second day as the Houti claim responsibility for Saturday's deadly [00:30:17] strike on the same airport. Hello and welcome to [00:30:21] TRT World Life from Istanbul, I'm Jafar Hustan also coming [00:30:24] up. Israel expands it so-called yellow line in [00:30:28] Gaza forcing dozens of Palestinian families to flee in the middle the night. [00:30:33] Donald Trump says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to halt a strikes on each other's [00:30:37] energy infrastructure. Vlodimir Zelensky welcomes the [00:30:40] move. The Polish interior minister says the man [00:30:44] who threatened and planned to attack prime minister Donald Tusk has been [00:30:48] arrested.