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20260808 000000 UTC
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[00:00:07] of
[00:00:20] of wherever the big news stories happening we're get up
[00:00:23] to break it
[00:00:25] news first with breaking
[00:00:29] of news
[00:00:43] of
[00:00:55] of
[00:01:06] are the stories we're
[00:01:07] of tracking for you at this time, Nigeria to host Made
[00:01:11] in Global Investor Expor to showcase investment
[00:01:14] opportunities, RAMF says Nigeria spent
[00:01:17] 1.16 trillion nara on fuel subsidy
[00:01:21] in 2021, crude oil prices
[00:01:25] drop as investors way potential are her
[00:01:29] most deal. well that's a very good one uh critically but let's
[00:01:32] see uh markets now with our commodities market
[00:01:36] of first uh gold is still standing tall closing the week
[00:01:40] brilliant uh at
[00:01:41] $4,347.30 that's
[00:01:45] a pretty good uh for gold to end the week
[00:01:48] in with 1.11% in green
[00:01:50] 47.70% positive in change while
[00:01:54] silver is $56.87 coper is
[00:01:58] $673.20 platnum is
[00:02:00] $1,759.11
[00:02:04] of silver is in red here uh negative 0.57
[00:02:08] and it's down 0.99 in percentage points while
[00:02:11] copper is positive 2.30 0.34
[00:02:15] percentage points in green platinum is
[00:02:19] of 32.62 that's positive and 1.89 in percentage
[00:02:23] points for corn with coco and cutton well a
[00:02:27] bit of dip in coco i've been so interested in this
[00:02:30] commodity, it traded above 600,
[00:02:33] yesterday
[00:02:34] we reported that so it's down to $5,582 for
[00:02:38] metric
[00:02:38] of turn uh at the moment while cutting is $83.45,
[00:02:42] which is $6,31.21, coin is
[00:02:45] $463.50, well with this flat uh
[00:02:49] corn is
[00:02:51] of 0.32% in green and positive 1.50 while kokor is
[00:02:54] down 5.12%, this is indeed significant and
[00:02:58] 0.35% in green
[00:03:01] forcing now Asian shares held their breath
[00:03:05] today ahead of
[00:03:06] of United States job data that could prove povotor for
[00:03:10] next month's interest rate decision by the federal reserves. MSCI's
[00:03:14] broadest index of Asian Pacific shares outside of Japan slipped
[00:03:18] 0.1% and was down 0.5% for the
[00:03:21] week. Now Japan's Nickel dropped 0.5%, although it
[00:03:25] was set for a weekly rise of 1.7% South
[00:03:29] Korea. is next and also fell 0.5%
[00:03:33] and was down 5.1% for the week for the seventh straight week
[00:03:37] of decline. the index had doubled in the first half
[00:03:39] of the year, swept up by demand for AI linked chip
[00:03:43] of stocks as China's CSR 300 rows 0.8%
[00:03:47] after data showed that China's export machine kept powring
[00:03:51] ahead to boost the economy. nasdaq features
[00:03:55] follows an instrop 0.1%. S&P 500
[00:03:59] features were... but European borses are set for lower
[00:04:02] open with pan
[00:04:03] of region stock features down
[00:04:07] in 0.2%entage points. well
[00:04:10] of crude oil prices extended gains today mean further concerns around the opening
[00:04:14] of the street of mose
[00:04:15] of as he ran working with a man suggested burning vessels
[00:04:18] deemed hostile from the street and heavily
[00:04:22] finding those uh which violated the proposed
[00:04:26] rules.
[00:04:27] of united states west texas intermediate crude r.
[00:04:30] of
[00:04:32] 75.44 uh with an upward margin of
[00:04:38] of 0.29 percentage points, brent is selling for
[00:04:40] $79.76 for a barrel, it's
[00:04:44] also in green
[00:04:46] a 0.39% points, indian basket is
[00:04:48] $83.83
[00:04:51] of uh in negative 1.60 percentage points. for the OPEC
[00:04:55] basket, dealers offer
[00:04:57] $77.34 sents for a barrel
[00:05:01] with a downward review of 3.83
[00:05:05] percentage
[00:05:05] points. now
[00:05:09] Nigeria's manufacturing sector is
[00:05:11] of showing. new signs of optimism with business confidence
[00:05:15] climbing to its highest level in more than two years, but the big
[00:05:19] question is whether confidence can overcome the tough realities facing
[00:05:23] manufacturers. the manufacturers association of Nigeria says it
[00:05:27] CEO's confidence index rose to 52.1
[00:05:30] in the second quarter, moving above the 50 point mark that
[00:05:34] signals expected economic expansion. industry leaders say
[00:05:38] recent tax reforms, the Najin industrial policy and the nagen first...
[00:05:42] initiative are given businesses fresh hope for the future, but despite
[00:05:46] the positive outlook manufacturers say the operating environment remains
[00:05:50] difficult, high interest rates, foreign exchange challenges,
[00:05:54] unreliable power supply and rising production costs continue to
[00:05:57] slow outputs and limit investment. analys also argued that
[00:06:01] affordable financing, stable electricity, improve
[00:06:05] infrastructure and stronger support for locally made goods would
[00:06:08] determine whether today's confidence translates to
[00:06:12] sustainable growth, jobs and higher industrial productivity.
[00:06:16] my first guest today is the CEO the center for the
[00:06:20] promotion of private enterprises. Dr. Muda Yusuf, he
[00:06:24] joins me virtually for this conversation. Dr. Yusuf, good afternoon and
[00:06:28] thank you for joining us on business Nigeria
[00:06:37] manufacturing confidence has reached its highest level in two
[00:06:41] years, that's according to the report. we see now, in your
[00:06:44] understanding, what key economic fundamentals are driving
[00:06:48] this renewed optimism and now sustainable is this
[00:06:51] trend?
[00:06:54] well uh, from the report, I think the
[00:06:58] manufacturers themselves uh, who are
[00:07:01] the authors of this confidence
[00:07:05] index uh report,
[00:07:07] identified number of
[00:07:10] things, first, they identify the
[00:07:14] Nigerian force policy uh which you
[00:07:18] know uh points in the direction of
[00:07:21] better procurement policy to support the
[00:07:24] manufacturers, that means that at least from the
[00:07:28] federal government and possibly from the states and they expect
[00:07:32] to see lot more patronage based on the Nigerian
[00:07:36] first policy and that perhaps informed the fact
[00:07:40] that the auto assembly... plants uh came
[00:07:43] top you know in the confidence uh rating that
[00:07:47] was reported uh in that report then there
[00:07:51] is also the expectation that the tax reform will have some
[00:07:55] positive impact you know on manufacturing
[00:07:58] outcomes are going forward so that was also major
[00:08:02] driver the confidence and of course they also reference the
[00:08:06] Nigerian industrial policy as also
[00:08:09] factor that has also even that
[00:08:13] level of confidence, so those are the major
[00:08:16] issues that are the confidence
[00:08:20] performance was abscribed to, but from my
[00:08:24] own point of view, i think this is generally
[00:08:26] about the general improvement in the
[00:08:29] macroeconomic environment, which has been driving
[00:08:33] lot of confidence both among
[00:08:37] domestic investors and among foreign investors
[00:08:40] and that's a lot more. now
[00:08:43] uh, of course, as the manufacturers also reported,
[00:08:47] of course there are still challenges, then
[00:08:50] secondly, this is for
[00:08:53] q2, q1 generally compared to q2,
[00:08:57] the first quarter is normally very slow in terms of economic
[00:09:01] activities, the momentum is always very
[00:09:04] slow, so that again could be factor where we have
[00:09:08] this significant difference between
[00:09:11] the... confidence level in Q1 and the confidence level in
[00:09:15] Q2, the momentum of economic activities generally is
[00:09:19] much higher, you in the second quarter the year, this is
[00:09:23] couple with the fact that we have seen quite a number of
[00:09:26] consistency and with respect to some key macro
[00:09:30] variables, but of course the second quarter
[00:09:33] also came with challenges, particularly the energy
[00:09:37] prices, which is one the issues also rais in the
[00:09:40] report. many
[00:09:44] CEOs appear to be placing significant confidence in
[00:09:48] government's recent economic and monetary policy reforms
[00:09:52] and I would ask again that which specific of
[00:09:56] of this policies are having the greatest impact on manufacturers
[00:09:59] and are these reform translated into real improvements on
[00:10:03] the factory floor?
[00:10:07] well uh generally you know when we talk about
[00:10:10] macroeconomic stability, It's about the
[00:10:14] totality of what is happening in the economy at the macro
[00:10:17] level, because you need the macro,
[00:10:21] innovables to be able to support or...
[00:10:25] variables to be able to support investment and ultimately
[00:10:29] to be able to create jobs and improve the welfare the
[00:10:32] people, so by way of sequencing of policy and by
[00:10:36] way of prioritization of policy, we have seen you
[00:10:40] know significant level of recovery with
[00:10:43] respect to the GDP growth for instance, and the
[00:10:47] GDP growth as at the first quarter was about
[00:10:50] 3.89, and I'm expecting that by the time we get the
[00:10:54] GDP. for the second quarter, you should be getting to
[00:10:57] 4%, which is significant when you compare with
[00:11:01] regional performance and global performance, that
[00:11:04] has a way of inspiring confidence, the exchange rate has been
[00:11:08] generally stable you know over the last one
[00:11:12] year, and the the stability has been sustained,
[00:11:15] even when we had some turbulence at the global
[00:11:19] level, because the level of reserves that we had,
[00:11:23] that turbulence did not translate. into major disruption
[00:11:27] in the economy, because the central bank is a much better
[00:11:31] position now to support the currency and ensure
[00:11:34] stability,
[00:11:36] so that also is is major factor, then we have
[00:11:39] seen a lot of you know -
[00:11:43] self-reliance, which meant that we have been depending
[00:11:46] less on import, on some
[00:11:49] critical you know - products, particularly
[00:11:53] petroleum products.
[00:11:55] because two, three, four years ago you w
[00:11:59] spending close to 10 billion to 15 billion dollars
[00:12:03] annually importing petroleum products, that story is
[00:12:06] changing already significantly, even though we see
[00:12:10] have few issues with importing petroleum
[00:12:14] products, but the fact that the dangoter refinary is now
[00:12:17] playing major role in terms of domestic refining is beginning to change the
[00:12:21] picture, it's beginning to change the narrative. so that
[00:12:25] is also translating into better trade balances, which
[00:12:29] is also good for the economy and for confidence. then
[00:12:33] even externally, all the ratings that you have been
[00:12:37] getting from you, SMP, standard and one and all
[00:12:40] of that has been positive in terms of looking
[00:12:44] at the economy and looking at how things are, then of course the
[00:12:48] stock market is also major indicator of how the economy is
[00:12:51] performing, and you can see the trajectory even in the... stock
[00:12:55] market, these are indication that things are doing, that is
[00:12:59] not to say that we don't have
[00:13:01] issues, because economic management and
[00:13:05] economic reform and
[00:13:07] you know getting reform to translate into concrete benefits
[00:13:11] and outcomes, it's also a journey, you have to fix the
[00:13:15] foundation before you begin to deal with the superstructure, so for
[00:13:19] me i think the structural issues which was also mentioned by
[00:13:22] the by in the manufacturers association. report also remains to be
[00:13:26] dealt with, they talk about issues of power, they talk
[00:13:30] about issues the high interest rates, which has become a
[00:13:34] major issue, even though the higher interest rate was designed
[00:13:38] to deal with problem of inflation, to attract foreign exchange
[00:13:41] inflows, but it also has a downsides, which is what the
[00:13:45] manufacturers are saying, which is why some of us feel that we need
[00:13:49] to do lot more you know to expand the
[00:13:53] development finance window. "we need to support them a lot
[00:13:56] more, we are
[00:13:57] not saying that the CBN should go as far as the former administration of CBN
[00:14:01] went in terms of intervention funds because there was a lot of
[00:14:05] abuse, but again we should not throw away the baby with the bat
[00:14:08] water, the CBI has to do lot more, in
[00:14:12] supporting development finance, because it's a major area of market
[00:14:16] failure as far as financial market is concerned, there are
[00:14:20] quite a number of critical sectors including manufacturing that cannot
[00:14:24] sustain their business. is at the current interest rates and apart
[00:14:27] from the interest rate, most the funds in the financial system, in
[00:14:31] the commercial banks are short-term funds which cannot support
[00:14:35] manufacturing, which cannot support the real economy, so these are
[00:14:39] gaps, these are market failure issues which require some level of
[00:14:43] intervention by the by the central bank, so my appeal is
[00:14:47] that the CBN should not walk away completely from this
[00:14:50] issue of intervention in the
[00:14:53] in in the financial markets and saying they should replicate what was done under
[00:14:57] the previous CBN uh dispensation, they can find
[00:15:01] tune it, they can do refine it, reform it, and so that you
[00:15:05] can have you decision or a framework to fill
[00:15:08] this these issues that has arrisen as result of market
[00:15:12] failure in the financial markets,
[00:15:16] but despite improving business sentiments, manufacturers continue to
[00:15:20] face, yeah we've identified some of it, high borrowing cost, inflation, energy
[00:15:24] prices, infrastructure. infrastructure deficits, but my next
[00:15:28] question would be, how do these factors affect the
[00:15:31] outlook for sustained growth in the entire sector? you
[00:15:35] touched on the issue of development? financing which is also key,
[00:15:39] but
[00:15:39] you know we've seen what's happened, for example, let's look at the anchor bora
[00:15:43] scheme and you know the level of refunds and all of that,
[00:15:47] so when you look at this, do you think the central bank will want to
[00:15:50] go back into this or what means or what way
[00:15:53] do you think that can be done and so transparently and uh
[00:15:57] that the bank can also be accountable for the funds, it's a two in
[00:16:04] uh, you know there is... no, no,
[00:16:08] no econom, no reform packa is
[00:16:10] perfect, we can always find
[00:16:14] tune whatever intervention methods we
[00:16:17] have uh, you know, to the credit the
[00:16:21] current you know development finance institution,
[00:16:24] particularly the bank of industry and the development
[00:16:28] bank of Nigeria, they have been managed
[00:16:30] professionally, even as bad as the situation
[00:16:34] was before 2023, when the... lot of
[00:16:38] abuse and in the area of intervention
[00:16:41] funds, the bank of industry and development
[00:16:44] bank who are being managed professionally, nobody ever
[00:16:47] accused them of mismanaging those
[00:16:50] intervention
[00:16:52] of funds that came through them, because you know at that time the central
[00:16:55] bank also created his own independent window of
[00:16:59] directly intervening,
[00:17:01] you know in the financial markets and giving loans and all of that, which was not their
[00:17:05] responsibility, exactly, so think it's a question of
[00:17:09] you know reforming the whole uh way
[00:17:12] of intervening uh using of course
[00:17:16] establish institutions that
[00:17:18] are that are being managed professionally, i'm talking now about the
[00:17:22] development finance institution, they have the structure, they have very sound
[00:17:25] management, you know we have seen very little loans, loan losses
[00:17:29] and power and all of that, of course those are those are things that
[00:17:33] require some heavy lifting on the fiscal side or...
[00:17:37] the economy, because the power sector reform is still
[00:17:41] still one the big issues that we are still struggling
[00:17:45] with, are the power issue is still a a big issue, logistics issue is still
[00:17:49] a big issue, insecurity is still a big issue, even though the
[00:17:52] government, you know, has been trying to move the needle one way or the other in
[00:17:56] all these areas. before i let you go, let's
[00:18:00] look ahead now, what key indicators should investors, policy makers
[00:18:04] and public watch over the next let's say six month as we move to an
[00:18:08] election year to determine whether this rising manufacturing
[00:18:11] confidence will translate into higher production, job creation and
[00:18:15] growth at the end the
[00:18:16] day. well, the key
[00:18:20] indicators are essentially
[00:18:22] the the macro indicators. our first is about
[00:18:25] whether the government will remain committed to
[00:18:29] sustain the reform
[00:18:31] trajectory to to be assured
[00:18:35] that as we as as. electoral and political
[00:18:38] activities gin momentum, it will not lead to
[00:18:42] you know serious distraction from economic
[00:18:46] governance, that assurance is extremely very important,
[00:18:49] because at least for many investors we are on the right course, of
[00:18:53] course we need to do some fine tuning to ensure that you
[00:18:57] know issues of productivity and issues of welfare,
[00:19:01] issues of affordability are equally addressed,
[00:19:05] that's major assurance that we need
[00:19:09] to get, and secondly is for the central bank to
[00:19:13] also look properly at how we can
[00:19:17] create financing window,
[00:19:20] you know, for the real sector the economy, financing window within
[00:19:23] a framework that will not be vulnerable to abuse,
[00:19:27] and for the central bank to also come to terms with the fact that
[00:19:31] we are dealing with a reality of market failure in the financial
[00:19:35] system and the theory. is that where there is market
[00:19:38] failure, there has to be intervention by government, and that is
[00:19:42] even more so a developing economy like
[00:19:46] ours, we cannot surrender everything to market forces,
[00:19:50] otherwise some critical sectors the economy will
[00:19:54] suffer, it is difficult for you to finance
[00:19:57] agriculture, to finance manufacturing, to finance real
[00:20:01] estate, to finance mining with an interest rate of
[00:20:04] 30%, it cannot work, you can't those
[00:20:08] critical sectors with a
[00:20:10] uh funds that are just one year, two years turner, three years turner, you
[00:20:14] need long term funds, you need more concessionally
[00:20:17] financing, so those issues are critical, are from the
[00:20:21] from the monetary policy point of view, for us to ensure that we
[00:20:25] calibrate the policy environment to take account
[00:20:29] the peculiarities of this environment, i think those
[00:20:33] things are critical you know to to to sustain you know
[00:20:37] the... the tempo of economic recovery and
[00:20:41] progress as
[00:20:42] we as we go into into the second as you go
[00:20:45] into maybe the
[00:20:46] the third third quarter year. Dr. Muda
[00:20:50] Yusuf, CEO, Director, Center for the promotion of
[00:20:54] private
[00:21:06] has once again taken center staging shipping Africa's economic
[00:21:09] future as policy makers, business leaders and development uh
[00:21:13] partners gathered in Abuja for the seventh African emerging uh
[00:21:17] market forum hosted by the Central Bank of Niger. era in partnership
[00:21:21] with the emerging markets forum and the center for the study
[00:21:25] of economies of Africa. The even focused on one critical
[00:21:28] question: how can Africa's economy remain resilient and it growing
[00:21:32] global uncertainty? We have more in this special report. The
[00:21:36] emerging markets forum brings together government officials, central
[00:21:40] bankers, economists and private sector leaders to discuss
[00:21:44] practical solutions to the economic challenges facing developing
[00:21:47] nations, by hosting the forum. The Central Bank of
[00:21:51] Nigeria is position in the country as an active participant in
[00:21:54] global conversations on economic reforms, financial
[00:21:58] stability and sustainable development. The event
[00:22:01] also provides an opportunity for Nigeria to showcase ongoing
[00:22:05] reforms aimed at threatening the economy and attracting long-term
[00:22:09] investment. As we have seen, global trade and the trading
[00:22:13] system are resilient. Over the past year, the Central Bank has
[00:22:16] introduced a series of measures designed to stabilize the...
[00:22:20] macroeconomic environment. One of its primary objectives has
[00:22:24] been tackling inflation, which has remained one the biggest pressures on
[00:22:28] households and businesses. To contain rising
[00:22:31] prices, the monetary policy committee has repeatedly increased the
[00:22:35] monetary policy rates, tightening monetary conditions a bit to
[00:22:39] slow inflation and anchor inflation
[00:22:41] expectations.
[00:22:44] Geoeconomic considerations are causing
[00:22:47] countries to look inward. and to
[00:22:51] reorganize trade and critical supply
[00:22:54] chains around trusted partners
[00:22:58] and neighboring markets through
[00:23:00] nearshoring and friend
[00:23:03] sharing. for Africa,
[00:23:07] this change is both a warning and an
[00:23:11] opportunity. with inter-african
[00:23:15] trade still accounting for only about
[00:23:18] 16%. of our total
[00:23:21] trade, we must build stronger
[00:23:25] regional value chains, produce more of
[00:23:29] what we consume and trade
[00:23:33] more with one another. the CBN has also pursued reforms in the
[00:23:37] foreign exchange market, efforts to improve
[00:23:40] transparency, enhance liquidity and encourage more
[00:23:43] efficient price discovery are intended to reduce exchange
[00:23:47] rates distortions and improve confidence. among investors and
[00:23:51] businesses that depend on foreign currency. another
[00:23:55] focus has been straightning the financial sector. the ongoing
[00:23:58] bank recapitalization program aims to ensure that Nigerian banks
[00:24:02] remain well capitalized, resilient and capable of supporting
[00:24:06] economic growth through increase the lending to critical
[00:24:09] sectors. beyond financial sector reforms, the
[00:24:13] central bank continues emphasize stronger regulation, improved
[00:24:17] risk management and enhanced payments. systems to support
[00:24:21] financial inclusion and a more efficient economy, revenue
[00:24:25] optimization, growth and fiscal
[00:24:28] discipline, within ministry of finance we're developing a
[00:24:32] DNA, DNA means d
[00:24:35] for diligent execution, whether it's
[00:24:39] policy, whether it's a mandate on spending, we
[00:24:42] would execute diligently, and is for
[00:24:46] national interest, we will place Nigeria's interest
[00:24:50] over and above are personal interests, sectional interests, regional
[00:24:54] interests, it to be Nigeria first, and
[00:24:57] Nigeria always, and a is for
[00:25:01] accountability, because we want to be accountable, one high
[00:25:05] potential sector is critical minerals, where the green transition
[00:25:09] is driving demand for lithium boxide, cobalt and
[00:25:12] other elements necessary to manufacture EV batteries and other low
[00:25:16] carbon goods. Africa holds an estimated 30% percent the
[00:25:20] world's known mineral reserves and estimates for Latin
[00:25:24] America are similar, for Africa in particular,
[00:25:27] instead the extract and export model that has been the source
[00:25:31] of so much volatility, economic underperformance, and let me be
[00:25:35] blunt, corruption, conflict and banditory, the goal should be
[00:25:39] higher value, higher productivity growth driven by the
[00:25:42] development of subregional value chains and integration into
[00:25:46] potential supply networks. Analys say host the
[00:25:50] emerging markets forum reinforces Nigeria's commitment to
[00:25:53] international engagement a time when global economic
[00:25:57] uncertainty remains high. The discussions could also provide
[00:26:00] insight into how other emerging economies and managing
[00:26:04] inflation, attracting investment, navigating external shocks
[00:26:08] and accelerating inclusive growth. for
[00:26:11] investors, international development partners and the broader
[00:26:15] business community, the forum offers an opportunity to
[00:26:18] assess Nigeria's reform trajectory and the policy direction the
[00:26:22] country's monetary authorities. there is a big advantage for
[00:26:26] AI in
[00:26:30] in the improvement the delivery. of services, I'm talking
[00:26:34] about essential services like medical care, like education, like legal
[00:26:38] and judicial care, like agricultural extension and so on. now
[00:26:42] these are bigger priorities in countries that are more agrarian, where you have
[00:26:46] many people who don't yet have these services and so on, so I'm describing
[00:26:50] developing country like Nigeria or like India, so actually the
[00:26:54] upside of AI technologies is also very, very great, but you
[00:26:58] have
[00:26:58] to be,
[00:26:58] you have to be careful to see where are the returns highest in this one?
[00:27:02] and what we find through our work is that the highest are not
[00:27:06] in frontline generative AI, the highest returns are
[00:27:10] actually in backend predictive AI. while challenges remain
[00:27:14] from inflationary pressures to exchange rates volatility and global
[00:27:18] economic headwinds. the central bank maintains that its policy
[00:27:22] measures are designed to lay the foundation for sustained macroeconomic
[00:27:25] stability and long-term economic growth. as
[00:27:28] deliberations continue, market participants will be watch.
[00:27:32] closely for new policy insights and partnerships that could
[00:27:36] further strengthen Nigeria's economic
[00:27:38] outlook. We're still to come on business
[00:27:42] Nigeria, we'll be understanding issues around the middle east peace
[00:27:46] talks, the implications for Nigeria's oil and gas
[00:27:49] industry. My next guest is the head natural resources,
[00:27:53] climate governance is with budget foundation, Mr.
[00:27:56] Enebi, join us after this break for that
[00:28:00] conversation, don't go away.
[00:28:26] All right, glad to have you back now, middle east peace talkks and fresh tensions a
[00:28:29] shipping global old prices with direct. sequences for's
[00:28:33] economy fe cours and