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20260920 003000 UTC
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[00:00:37] Well, thank you
[00:00:37] for staying to you. Nigeria's headline inflation has continued its downward trend
[00:00:41] is in slightly to 15.39% in August, from
[00:00:45] 15.43% in July. The latest figure from the National
[00:00:48] Bureau of Statistics also shows that food and core inflation
[00:00:52] moderated pointing to a broader easing of price pressures. Food
[00:00:56] inflation fell to
[00:00:58] in 19.57%. Yeah. one year while its monthly rate dropped sharply to
[00:01:02] 1.02% from 5.56% in July,
[00:01:06] now core inflation also decline 13.29%, showing
[00:01:10] that underline pressure uh price pressures are
[00:01:13] of gradually cooling. the figure comes as the economy heads into the final
[00:01:17] quarter of 2026, with inflation now recording its third
[00:01:20] consecutive month of moderation. improvement could
[00:01:24] provide a more stable environment for households, businesses and investors
[00:01:28] of as economic reforms continue to its effect. Now attention now turn
[00:01:32] to the Central Bank of Nigeria's monetary policy committee meeting next week
[00:01:36] and what the latest inflation trend could mean for monetary
[00:01:39] policy. Now with price pressures easing across several key measures,
[00:01:43] the Q4 outlook will also depend on
[00:01:47] of food prices, energy cost, exchange rates conditions and overall
[00:01:51] economic
[00:02:09] i will start with um your your reading of Nigeria's um
[00:02:12] August 2026 inflation figure, what is your understanding
[00:02:16] and what extent does the latest number suggest that the
[00:02:20] country is making meaningful progress in containing
[00:02:23] inflation, well if you
[00:02:27] look at the inflation figures, it mirrors stability we see in
[00:02:31] fx market and we
[00:02:32] in know that the fx rate has
[00:02:34] of major impact on consumer
[00:02:37] prices, then you add another factor which was some level
[00:02:41] stability we saw in the price
[00:02:42] of of refined petroleum product, unfortunately that has reversed in the
[00:02:46] past couple of weeks, so if you consider the fact that we
[00:02:50] saw stable prices in PMS, which has a
[00:02:54] will of transmission into consumer prices and then you
[00:02:57] have stability in exchange, we actually have had some level of appreciation in
[00:03:01] local currency exchange rate, so those factors
[00:03:05] and then you look at the food inflation, you talked about the food
[00:03:08] inflation about
[00:03:10] of of 19.5, i think 57%,
[00:03:12] of moderation from lower than what it was the previous the
[00:03:16] preceding months and if you consider that the
[00:03:20] of preceding august, mean august 2025 food
[00:03:24] inflation was in the region of 15
[00:03:26] point 25.3%, so clearly with
[00:03:30] seen improvement uh in the call inflation rate
[00:03:34] we dropped about 13%, we were driven by a stable exchange rates
[00:03:38] and stable prices of petroleum products and
[00:03:41] then we saw moderation in food prices driven
[00:03:45] by the harvest season, of course we've seen when the peak
[00:03:48] of the harvest season and we're at the point where you have virtually
[00:03:52] all food item produced locally moderate, but
[00:03:55] unfortunately the major moderation in food prices came.
[00:04:00] from imported food items which came about
[00:04:02] of 19% of of uh because locally produced food item inflation
[00:04:06] was about 21% for the same period
[00:04:09] so in effect we are seeing stability in exchange rates
[00:04:13] and uh stable f prices like i
[00:04:17] said earlier that may reverse have
[00:04:20] in direct impact on on on consumer prices a
[00:04:24] crossbard indeed i am particularly
[00:04:28] worried about energy. uh prices, what is playing
[00:04:32] out uh in the Middle East and of course how it's impacting on the
[00:04:35] of prices that the pump, as are today now we are doing about a
[00:04:38] thous uh 400 uh for liter
[00:04:42] of fiel which many say would impact the prices are moving forward now with
[00:04:46] food prices, energy cost and exchange rate movements just like you
[00:04:50] mentioned still important drivers of
[00:04:53] of households and business cost, what are the biggest risk that could
[00:04:56] cause inflation to continue to accelerate in the final month? of
[00:05:00] 2026, I think the greatest that we
[00:05:03] have to the current trend
[00:05:06] with witness in inflation rate is energy cost, energy prices,
[00:05:10] uh, the volatility
[00:05:11] of in the middle eastts. seem not to be abbating uh today we
[00:05:15] are seeing some moderation in the crew prices, last week we
[00:05:19] saw crude price go above almost
[00:05:21] 110 dollars per barrel uh
[00:05:25] and then we are not sure that the world has now
[00:05:29] resolved the issue in the uh middle belt middle east
[00:05:33] so clearly that becomes that remains the
[00:05:36] most uh pronounced risk
[00:05:39] as it relates to inflation because if for instance you look at
[00:05:43] the price of petroleum product this month and you consider the fact at the
[00:05:47] pump prices are in the region of 1400
[00:05:50] 400 to 430 or 450 in some locations so
[00:05:54] the impact of that the transport cost is going to go up so the that
[00:05:58] category of transport uh with that
[00:06:02] category of consumer price index or
[00:06:06] the consumption
[00:06:09] by expenditure type will go up,
[00:06:13] it will have a direct impact on food prices because the food has to be
[00:06:16] transported from where they are produced to where they are consumed, so you
[00:06:20] find that virtually every
[00:06:23] consumer expenditure head has draw
[00:06:27] some level of impact from price of petroleum
[00:06:31] product, so that's a key factor, the other key factor which
[00:06:35] i don't think is very pronounced is the issue of food prices, as we
[00:06:39] move towards the end the year you're also going to move to food. into the
[00:06:42] planting season and farmers because we don't have capacity to
[00:06:46] preserve uh uh food locally so
[00:06:50] you realize that lot of times uh food prices drop
[00:06:54] materially during the harvest because the farmers cannot preserve it and then
[00:06:58] once we move out the harvest season the farmers
[00:07:02] are even themselves struggle to buy food to feed themselves because they
[00:07:05] couldn't uh they couldn't preserve their produce so we may
[00:07:09] also see an optic in good prices as we
[00:07:13] move towards the uh end the year,
[00:07:17] unless that is upset by import, which we've
[00:07:20] seen balance the supply of food in the local economy in the
[00:07:24] past couple of months. let's take a step further, the
[00:07:28] dangote IPO, which we talked about earlier this week, everyone is talking about it
[00:07:32] has become Africa's largest ever share offering targeting about
[00:07:35] 2.15 trillion, now you fully subscribed, but my question to you really
[00:07:39] is market issues now, what does the strong retail? interest tell
[00:07:43] you about investor confidence and the debt of nigeria's capital
[00:07:46] market? i don't
[00:07:50] think it has to do with investor confidence and debt of nigerian capital market
[00:07:54] of course yes so nigerian capital market because if you have a
[00:07:58] larger pool of investors it depens the market and it creates some
[00:08:02] level of stability so that the the what could
[00:08:05] impact that could lead to market
[00:08:09] reversal reversals will be moderated.
[00:08:12] because when you have like
[00:08:14] that say
[00:08:14] the target about 10 million Nigerians as investors, it will take a long,
[00:08:18] major dislocation for you to have little investors panic
[00:08:22] out the market, so it gives the market some level of stability. in terms of
[00:08:26] investor confidence, what we've seen is that the investors have been so
[00:08:30] sensitized about the benefit the dangotel
[00:08:33] refinery, and bear in mind that dang refineries produce is so
[00:08:37] critical to the economy that virtually like we are discussing earlier
[00:08:41] we say that the... impact that the cost of fuel
[00:08:44] has the transmission effect on almost all the cost items
[00:08:47] consumption categories so every nigerian virtually
[00:08:51] every nigerian know about the person who is producing the food they are consuming
[00:08:54] today and they ordinarily give be
[00:08:58] sensitize on the benefit of investing that
[00:09:02] refinally we've seen a lot of retail investors scrabble for
[00:09:05] investment struggled mean we've seen the level of interest we've not seen
[00:09:09] in recent history uh past after the banking industry
[00:09:13] consolidation of 2006 2008 uh so
[00:09:16] that is what has happened investors
[00:09:19] are the product of is something
[00:09:22] that is known to everybody the matter how your level of
[00:09:26] enlightenment so it's easier for people
[00:09:29] embrace investment in that
[00:09:32] good that's
[00:09:32] what i would say as relates to investor confidence it does not
[00:09:36] necessilly mean that investors are buying every stock of course we've seen market
[00:09:40] rallys about that those market. we are driven largely by institutional
[00:09:44] investors, but what we are witnessing now is retail
[00:09:47] investors scrambling for a dang refinally
[00:09:50] offer. finally on that, beyond the
[00:09:54] capital raised by IPO, how significant could the refineries
[00:09:58] expansion be for Nigeria's foreign exchange position, fuel supply,
[00:10:02] government revenues and overall economic
[00:10:05] growth. well,
[00:10:08] until stream,
[00:10:12] share of nigeria's import that was accounted by
[00:10:16] define about 30 to 23% depending on which period
[00:10:20] so uh if we effectively eliminate that bear in
[00:10:24] mind that totally import for. the second quarter of this year was about 14 trillion,
[00:10:27] of course there still some components uh of refined petroleum
[00:10:31] products, refined petroleum product was still PMS was still the largest
[00:10:34] component of that, if we eliminate that completely, it simply we're going
[00:10:38] to conserve about 20% of our import bill, so that will flush
[00:10:42] into our reserve and that will flush into our exchange rates and that
[00:10:46] will have very saluty effect on inflation rate,
[00:10:50] because once you exchange it appreciates then the
[00:10:54] value. price of imported items will moderate,
[00:10:58] so the dangote refinary expansion, we have material
[00:11:01] impact on our external external position, a balance of
[00:11:05] trade position, particularly if it is supported
[00:11:09] and emphasize is if it's supported by increase in crude production, i think
[00:11:13] the last about 1.6 million bar 1.67 million barrass a
[00:11:17] day, we need to go back whatever it takes, we need to produce
[00:11:21] enough crude that we should be able to supply dang 100%.
[00:11:25] of its crude demand or need and
[00:11:29] still export the same quantity we exporting or still meet our
[00:11:32] opaque export quarter that's the only way we
[00:11:36] can fully trap the benefit the dangoter refinary
[00:11:39] expansion if we don't expand crude local crude production
[00:11:43] it then means that part of that our what
[00:11:47] d is using to produce will be imported so you
[00:11:51] will see that whatever crude it imports will to some extent
[00:11:55] reduce the value, the net position we would have gained in our
[00:11:59] balance of trade if all his crude imput is
[00:12:02] derived locally or or supplied
[00:12:05] locally. now Nigeria is we are as we
[00:12:09] enter the final quarter of 2026, I like you to educate
[00:12:12] us and tell us, what should businesses, investors and households
[00:12:16] be watching most closely? inflation uh
[00:12:20] donira, interest rates, all prices, there
[00:12:24] seems to be lot. consumer demand or government spending and
[00:12:28] of course why? i think what
[00:12:32] uh nigerian businesses and nigerian house be watching is one what
[00:12:35] happens in the middle east it has a direct impact on their standard of
[00:12:39] living because once food prices increase it hurts almost all
[00:12:43] of us that's one factor but the biggest elephant in the room
[00:12:47] is the political uh climate
[00:12:51] um we need to maintain a self political climate because we are moving toward election
[00:12:55] period when you talk about the election presidential national presidential national assembly
[00:12:58] election on 16th of January that's almost just the end of this
[00:13:02] quarter this quarter the last quarter of this year so you realize that
[00:13:06] whatever uh political tension that
[00:13:09] will uh enate from the
[00:13:13] upcoming uh national elections will already be
[00:13:17] here with us before the end of this year so if we have
[00:13:19] smooth uh if we have very codial
[00:13:23] campaign and election indicators are that is going to be free and
[00:13:27] fair, we are likely going to see some improve level
[00:13:31] of stability
[00:13:31] in the economy, and in terms of reserve, we know our reserve is very strong, so what that
[00:13:35] means that the central bank has a watches uh to maintain
[00:13:39] exchange rate stability in next couple of months uh about
[00:13:43] 54 billion dollars in reserve gives central bank the
[00:13:47] capacity to maintain exchange rate even if he has a market to maintain that
[00:13:51] so that's not a great threat to us uh the great threat will come
[00:13:55] from external factors like - like i mentioned
[00:13:58] earlier increasing international price of crude that have effects on
[00:14:02] our refined petroleum products that we import which we have a
[00:14:06] direct impact on inflation rate
[00:14:08] um i think that's
[00:14:09] the greatest two two things we need to watch out for what happens in the
[00:14:13] middle east as it relates to crew prices and what happens
[00:14:17] in local political environment as to maintain social
[00:14:20] harmony getting more more
[00:14:25] interesting, I must say, the IMF also projects
[00:14:28] Nigeria's 2026 grow at about 4.1% and
[00:14:32] year end inflation at about 16,
[00:14:35] 17%. Uh, they are also warning the higher food
[00:14:39] and fuel prices uh remains risk. Now,
[00:14:43] what policy decisions in Q4 will be critical to
[00:14:46] balancing economic growth with the need to bring
[00:14:50] inflation down? I think what the federal
[00:14:54] goverment can do... is to focus on addressing the issue of insecurity
[00:14:57] in the major belts uh food food belts the country
[00:15:01] particularly northwest not east and not
[00:15:04] central um there is we need to have
[00:15:08] an environment where farmers can go back to the farm and plant uh
[00:15:12] and then produce that will that will not
[00:15:16] eliminate completely that will have a positive impact on
[00:15:20] inflation particularly food inflation which is the
[00:15:23] biggest concern of most. households uh, like I said, you had food
[00:15:27] inflation about 19.57%, but inflation was just about
[00:15:31] 13%. I mean, where you take out the
[00:15:33] volatile energy and food items.
[00:15:37] so assuming that we drive down food inflation to the region of 13% that
[00:15:41] means we are going to see inflation rate moderate to something
[00:15:45] like 13% or maybe 12%. so i think
[00:15:48] that should be the focus the government uh that we
[00:15:52] have a chance of improving insecurity the security
[00:15:56] situation in the country and ensure that farmers can go to their
[00:16:00] farms and produce whatever uh
[00:16:04] they can and the other things and much of longer. we're talking about what
[00:16:08] could happen the first quarter, the last quarter of this
[00:16:10] year, well indeed again,
[00:16:14] just came to my mind, i remember we we read fac yesterday on the news uh
[00:16:18] sharing 2.3 trillion uhira to states and
[00:16:22] of course federal states and local government, think i just want to ask you your
[00:16:26] understanding what you make of this increase funding and are we
[00:16:30] getting enough of um how will i put service with
[00:16:34] regards to this funds has been distributed to states and local?
[00:16:37] government, can they do better?
[00:16:41] well, to they should be able to do better, if you even
[00:16:45] look at what they have received so far, i think with this
[00:16:47] 2.2 trillion, the
[00:16:51] thes of government would have gotten over 20 trillion this year, because last time i say
[00:16:54] before this allocation it was about 18 trillion, that's almost
[00:16:58] about what it got the entire last year, last year was 22 trillion, so we've seen a
[00:17:02] material increase in allocation going to thes of government, so what the
[00:17:06] challenge is what are we delegating value for money?
[00:17:10] is few states we could say that the been material
[00:17:13] improvement in this governance standards in terms
[00:17:17] of use of state resources for the public for public goods,
[00:17:21] but we can't say that applies to all the states on equal
[00:17:25] basis. so the key thing
[00:17:27] you and i will continue to aggiate or push for is that the
[00:17:31] threats of government must show more prudence in management of public resources
[00:17:34] and the must get value for money for. public expenditure that is
[00:17:38] incured by the government. um, in terms of revenue, we've seen material
[00:17:42] improvement in revenue, over 30%
[00:17:45] increase in revenue year on year that the threats of government have
[00:17:49] gotten, um, but even what they got in august was
[00:17:53] reduction from what they got in July, but at 2. over
[00:17:57] 2 trillion, that is sufficient for government to run its
[00:18:01] expenditure effectively. of course, revenues can
[00:18:04] never be enough, because government is... government
[00:18:08] needs are inexhaustible,
[00:18:12] but king
[00:18:13] is
[00:19:08] has trading going today and let's look at the week totally
[00:19:11] let's review the week uh looking at the
[00:19:15] trading today market has has done
[00:19:19] about 18 billion and
[00:19:23] about done about 18 billion in value and in term of
[00:19:27] volume about 407 uh
[00:19:30] million and we can see the gainers are presently
[00:19:34] we have about 76 gainer against 24.
[00:19:38] loser we have the first bank, first bank has gain about
[00:19:41] 8%, kaverton,
[00:19:44] wemma, fixing,
[00:19:47] icho, and for the loser side we have sovereign
[00:19:50] investment, live stock,
[00:19:53] lake ever capita and
[00:19:57] so on and so forth, but looking at the market we can see
[00:20:01] that the the momentum is
[00:20:05] still is still low though
[00:20:09] market is tried to stabilize the momentum is low and it's not far
[00:20:12] fresh uh we don't have fresh fund i need to tell we don't really have
[00:20:16] fresh fund in the market because everybody is
[00:20:19] running uh after the you know
[00:20:23] after the IPO and we believe that when the after the
[00:20:27] allocation I believe that the allocation should be
[00:20:29] oversubscribed and we are going to have some return money
[00:20:33] whereby we are going to have more money also finding their way back.
[00:20:37] into the market till
[00:20:39] then i believe market we are still going to market is still going
[00:20:42] to be doing like this till then back to you yeah thank you
[00:20:46] so much the over subscription the ipo on
[00:20:50] understanding, what does it speak to our markets in in terms
[00:20:54] of investor confidence? uh, because we see lot of retail investors or
[00:20:58] getting into this IPO, sorry, I didn't get it very
[00:21:02] well, I'm asking you about what this means for investor confidence in our
[00:21:05] capital market, this what, this link i want, what does
[00:21:09] this IPO's over subscription, what does it
[00:21:13] mean, yes, yes, you know, look, looking at the
[00:21:16] IPU, IPU is, I mean, what has happened? Nigeria
[00:21:20] market this year is really fantastic and we can see that is kind
[00:21:24] of answer to prayer and that is going to boost the you know look at
[00:21:28] our capital
[00:21:29] you know the the the capital b now is going to be very large
[00:21:32] and uh for the dangute himself the refinery you know
[00:21:36] coming to the market is
[00:21:38] a is huding is huge thing and the
[00:21:42] investor you know the is a is
[00:21:45] kind of opportunity even for the the
[00:21:49] rest. to the real investor then also FBI, I
[00:21:53] believe that with this after listing is going
[00:21:57] to open open door for the market more and the
[00:22:00] confidence also that have been restored in the market because I want to tell you
[00:22:04] that you know the the the the confidence have been restored to our
[00:22:08] market and uh our market is institution that is
[00:22:12] most I mean
[00:22:12] I talk about the regulatory aspect is very strong
[00:22:16] and uh you know for people to call me that will not be anything like
[00:22:20] panic again, which I believe also we look at the bank
[00:22:23] capitalization, everything is moving toward
[00:22:26] positive, I mean trajectory, and I believe
[00:22:30] that he just for us to be patient, it's just for us to be patient and we are going to
[00:22:34] see the com
[00:22:35] I mean materializing at the long run, what do
[00:22:39] you think, how do you think the market will wrap this year up considering all of this
[00:22:43] positives that we've seen? yes, as I've said
[00:22:46] before, you look at you, the market have been so much,
[00:22:51] you know have been moving up and down, but I believe, as
[00:22:55] I've said before, I believe that this IPO should be over
[00:22:58] subscribe, because if you look at the private placement about 2.1
[00:23:02] trillion and you look at
[00:23:06] the IPO also, so I believe
[00:23:08] that when they have when we have over over
[00:23:12] subscription for this IPO,
[00:23:15] you know, return money from the IPO, danguty IPO
[00:23:19] is going to flow back. or find their way back into the market
[00:23:22] and I believe that before the end the year our
[00:23:25] market we we see need to what to move
[00:23:29] an upward I mean direction before the end
[00:23:39] all right before
[00:23:40] we go let's tell you uganda central bank has raised
[00:23:42] the cash reserve requirements for commercial banks to 13.5% from
[00:23:46] 11% as the local shillings comes under renewed pressure. against the United
[00:23:50] States dollar. The Bank of Uganda says the new requirements will take
[00:23:54] effect on September 24th, the move means commercial banks will be
[00:23:58] required to hold the larger share the deposits as
[00:24:01] reserves tightening liquidity within the banking system. The central bank
[00:24:05] says the adjustment aims at straightning liquidity management, improving
[00:24:09] the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and me prevailing
[00:24:13] economic and financial conditions. The shillings had wikened in recent
[00:24:17] weeks as demand for dollars increased particular. for manufacturers
[00:24:21] and energy sector, businesses facing higher imports and fuel
[00:24:24] cost. bank of Uganda's executive director for policy and
[00:24:28] and research, Adams Mugume says the central bank
[00:24:32] does not plan to intervene directly
[00:24:34] uh through dollar sales to support the currency. Mugume
[00:24:38] described such intervention as a potential policy inconsistency
[00:24:42] suggesting the bank will instead rely on monetary
[00:24:46] and liquidity management tools to respond to pressures.
[00:24:53] Meanwhile the Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate to
[00:24:56] 1.25%. It's highest level in 31 years as a central bank
[00:25:00] steps of efforts to prevent inflation from overshooting its
[00:25:04] 2% target. The decision taken at the end of two-day policy
[00:25:08] meeting lifted the rate from 1% a seven to two
[00:25:12] vote. Board members are tochiro, Asada and
[00:25:15] Ayano Sato voted against the increase. Now the
[00:25:19] latest. like um marks another step away from Japan's decade
[00:25:23] of ultra losing monetary policy uh that and brings borrowing
[00:25:27] cost closer to what the Boj considers a neutral level for the
[00:25:31] economy. Governor Kuso Uda says the bank policy
[00:25:34] has shifted as underlineing inflation approaches the 2%
[00:25:38] target. The BOJ is also monitoring the impact of higher energy
[00:25:42] cost, a weaker year and increase demand linked to investment and
[00:25:46] artificial intelligence. Uda says the bank would a just policy.
[00:25:50] If there is risk of inflation significantly above target and
[00:25:54] hurting uh the Japanese
[00:25:55] economy. Now to Malaysia, well
[00:25:59] exports rose 31.2%, year on year. to 1.36
[00:26:03] trillion ringit in the first eight months of 2026, putting the
[00:26:07] country on track for another record - year in trade.
[00:26:11] now the strong performance uh was driven by
[00:26:15] increase shipment of electrical and electronic products alongside stronger
[00:26:19] export of petroleum products, liquidified natural gas and other commodities.
[00:26:22] official data shows total trade climbed 27% to 2.5
[00:26:26] trillion ringid where all imports increase
[00:26:29] 22.4% to 1.16. billion ring
[00:26:33] it, the trade surplus doubled year on-year to 198.6 billion
[00:26:37] ring it, with January to August figure already exceeding Malaysia's full
[00:26:41] year surplus in both 2024 and 2025. In
[00:26:45] August alone, total trade jumped 43.4% to
[00:26:48] 354.01 billion ring, with export rising
[00:26:51] 45.5 to 191.05 billion ring.
[00:26:55] imports also increase 41.1% to
[00:26:58] 162.96 billion ring in resulting a monthly trade.
[00:27:02] surplus of 28.09 billion ring it. Malaysia's
[00:27:06] investments, trade and industry ministry says it will continue expanding
[00:27:10] market access, strengthening industries and support exporters to
[00:27:13] capture opportunities in global
[00:30:51] An efficient and vibrant agriculture sector remains a major
[00:30:55] pivot the tinib economy, hence the deployment of
[00:30:58] interventions aimed at boost.