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20260920 120000 UTC
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[00:00:17] Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Impact Plus,
[00:00:21] where we discuss the most important global issues. The wars of
[00:00:25] recent years, as well as the pandemic, have created
[00:00:29] major problems for the world economy. What
[00:00:32] is our current position and how great is the risk that
[00:00:36] the entire world economy will go downhill? We will find
[00:00:38] out today from Mr. Cristian Sulea, entrepreneur,
[00:00:42] economist, and university
[00:00:53] we announced at the beginning of the Impact Plus show,
[00:00:57] today we are discussing what is happening in the global
[00:01:00] economy, and I would
[00:01:03] like to start with the oil market situation, especially after the latest
[00:01:07] news that has come, particularly from the Middle East. The Strait of
[00:01:11] Hormuz has been blocked since February. Now, after
[00:01:14] the events in Yemen, it seems that those
[00:01:18] Houthi troops are taking control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait,
[00:01:21] hitting oil targets in
[00:01:24] Saudi Arabia. Please tell us what is happening in this market
[00:01:28] at this moment. I think the whole issue
[00:01:32] is important in context, because these
[00:01:36] in a broader context,
[00:01:39] which primarily includes the war
[00:01:42] that was launched by the United States in Iran through
[00:01:46] the attacks a few months ago, but
[00:01:50] we must understand this in an even broader context, because things are not
[00:01:55] stop us from doing this completely disconnected from the war launched by the Russian Federation in Ukraine.
[00:01:59] Practically, the Russian Federation
[00:02:02] counts Iran among its allies, and
[00:02:06] Iran has been using the Houthi rebels for a very long
[00:02:10] almost six months after time as a tool against its enemies
[00:02:13] in the region, and here we are primarily talking about
[00:02:16] Israel, which is somewhat
[00:02:19] identified alongside the United States as one of the two main
[00:02:23] enemies of the regime in
[00:02:25] Tehran, not of Iran in particular, but very
[00:02:29] specifically of the Ayatollah regime, which
[00:02:32] took control many decades ago
[00:02:36] in Iran. So, somehow, all these issues are
[00:02:39] connected. If we look at the international context from an
[00:02:42] economic point of view, we observe that there are major
[00:02:45] disturbances in the oil products
[00:02:48] market. Today, in particular, we see major
[00:02:52] problems with pump prices for fuels, which is
[00:02:56] directly felt by citizens, and here.
[00:03:00] Why did I want to make this whole connection? Because here, the lack
[00:03:03] of fuel on the market is also related to
[00:03:07] Iran's efforts to disrupt
[00:03:10] the supply of oil products from the Gulf
[00:03:14] region, but at the same time, it is also related to the Ukrainian
[00:03:17] strikes on Russian refineries
[00:03:21] that are used to finance the Russian Federation's
[00:03:24] war of aggression. So, somehow, we are in a
[00:03:27] moment when, from all sides, the activity in
[00:03:31] the oil sector, in the area of hydrocarbon energy production,
[00:03:35] is disrupted because we have these open
[00:03:38] conflicts that involve a
[00:03:41] very important component in this energy area.
[00:03:45] So, let's admit that Donald Trump was right when he said
[00:03:49] that part of the crisis is due to
[00:03:52] the strikes that Ukraine
[00:03:54] is carrying out.
[00:03:56] It is evident that when the Russian
[00:04:00] Federation goes from being a diesel
[00:04:04] information and advice from exporter to a diesel importer, something that was
[00:04:07] inconceivable a short time ago, this
[00:04:10] will have consequences, it will have repercussions on the global market
[00:04:14] for fuels, because we don't need to
[00:04:17] buy fuel from the Russian
[00:04:20] Federation. We can still assume that European countries and
[00:04:24] European companies have kept their word, have
[00:04:28] respected their promises and legislation,
[00:04:32] respecting sanctions and not buying fuel directly from
[00:04:50] countries that previously imported
[00:04:53] diesel and fuel in a more general sense from Russia are
[00:04:57] forced to go and look for this fuel on the international market
[00:05:01] elsewhere, and that means increased competition for a diminished
[00:05:05] quantity of product, which, naturally, according to
[00:05:08] the basic principles of economics, means higher prices for
[00:05:12] everyone. Mr. Năsulea, what estimates are there at this
[00:05:15] moment, given today's
[00:05:19] date, September 15th,
[00:05:22] how high could oil prices go, and how would that translate
[00:05:25] for end consumers at the pump?
[00:05:28] Here you will
[00:05:30] certainly find many specialists in the field who
[00:05:33] will give very wide ranges for these estimates, so
[00:05:37] we have been talking in recent months about oil prices that
[00:05:40] were absolutely dizzying beyond $150 per
[00:05:44] barrel in certain situations. Now we must also be aware
[00:05:47] of the fact that many of these specialists are
[00:05:51] specialists precisely because they work in the field
[00:05:54] for certain companies or for certain states that have interests in this
[00:05:57] area. So, somehow, I would
[00:06:01] not put too much stock in
[00:06:05] estimates that talk about prices
[00:06:08] over $150 per barrel. Just as
[00:06:11] I would not put too much stock in
[00:06:15] voices that say that everything will be resolved
[00:06:19] very soon and that we will be able to buy oil again
[00:06:22] for $30 a barrel. Both are issues that are out of sync, out of
[00:06:26] normal, and all we can say after these
[00:06:29] months since the outbreak of the war in Iran, which
[00:06:33] actually exacerbated this problem in the
[00:06:36] energy sector, is that the current
[00:06:39] price of oil on the international market
[00:06:42] reflects quite well the expectations
[00:06:46] of the major players in this field. So, practically, when
[00:06:50] we have oil that is hovering
[00:06:53] somewhere around $90, $100,
[00:06:56] or, well, we have also had days with
[00:06:59] somewhat better prices, these prices do not only reflect the current
[00:07:03] situation, they also reflect the expectations
[00:07:05] of the players in the field who have more information than us ordinary
[00:07:09] people, which means that, overall... we
[00:07:12] should not see fluctuations that would take
[00:07:15] us very far from this average that we are starting to
[00:07:19] see now
[00:07:23] the outbreak of the war in Iran. Mr. Năsulea,
[00:07:26] when I started my journalism career, my first
[00:07:30] director always told me when I was writing a story to
[00:07:33] look for who, who benefits from
[00:07:36] this situation that I am
[00:07:39] documenting. Now we are talking about the situation on the oil
[00:07:42] market. Please tell us, however, who benefits
[00:07:46] from the current situation on the oil
[00:07:49] market?
[00:07:51] Here, on the one hand, things are simpler
[00:07:54] to analyze, because we see concerted efforts
[00:07:58] by Iran and its proxies with whom
[00:08:02] Iran works to choke off the global
[00:08:05] energy supply, and here it is very clear that Iran has
[00:08:09] a strategic interest, shall we say, a military
[00:08:13] interest, rather, by turning
[00:08:16] oil or the lack of oil into a weapon aimed against
[00:08:19] the West and the enemies of the Tehran
[00:08:23] regime. So here, things are quite
[00:08:27] simple to understand. On the other
[00:08:30] hand, when we look at the high prices we
[00:08:33] see on the market, which certainly benefit those
[00:08:37] producers who have found themselves freer,
[00:08:40] less constrained by competition recently,
[00:08:44] we must realize that on the one hand, they
[00:08:47] manage to make higher profits than under
[00:08:50] normal conditions, but at the same time, if we look at
[00:08:54] the behavior that gas stations,
[00:08:58] practically, the downstream sector, almost throughout
[00:09:01] the European Union, we realize that the current
[00:09:05] situation is not a comfortable one even for the companies in the field,
[00:09:08] because practically we see
[00:09:11] rather a... a transfer of lower
[00:09:14] costs, much faster than we would have
[00:09:28] this kind of mechanism is observed, it is very clear
[00:09:31] that the market is under a greater level of stress
[00:09:35] than normal, that it is not a comfortable situation even for
[00:09:39] these companies, so
[00:09:41] I would not be able, beyond
[00:09:44] some considerations that relate more to military strategy
[00:09:48] which other colleagues of mine are more entitled to comment on, I would not
[00:09:52] be able to point very clearly to a
[00:09:56] company or a sector where the current
[00:09:59] situation is advantageous, where there are many things to
[00:10:03] gain for companies in that area at the
[00:10:06] expense of other companies or at the expense of the general public. Rather,
[00:10:10] I would say that this situation... is actually
[00:10:13] disadvantageous in the long term and overall for everyone.
[00:10:20] to say that economists say that any
[00:10:23] crisis is... a moment when other
[00:10:27] sectors of the economy develop much faster.
[00:10:31] There was a lot of talk about renewable energy.
[00:10:34] The current situation we are in, in terms of
[00:10:38] energy, do you think it could boost other sectors
[00:10:41] of the economy?
[00:10:43] I
[00:10:46] think this is already happening. I think
[00:10:50] green energy has been discussed in recent
[00:10:53] months in a much more positive light than
[00:10:56] normally happened, at least this is the perception in
[00:10:59] Romania, precisely because we realized
[00:11:03] that in fact, solar
[00:11:06] energy, a healthy mix of solar,
[00:11:09] wind, and hydro, if it is
[00:11:12] complemented by sufficient storage capacities, can
[00:11:16] actually provide an alternative to
[00:11:19] a situation that is otherwise very difficult
[00:11:22] for us to control. When you realize
[00:11:26] that Romania, an oil-producing country with
[00:11:29] significant refining capacities, is
[00:11:32] so fragile, so sensitive when it comes to
[00:11:36] these price fluctuations on the international market, you start
[00:11:39] to think about alternatives, and obviously, the very convenient alternatives
[00:11:43] for us at this moment are
[00:11:46] those related to certain types of renewable energy,
[00:11:50] where we have started to question ourselves, or we are starting
[00:11:53] to ask ourselves why we don't have those production
[00:11:57] capacities, why we don't have more production capacities in fact,
[00:12:01] so that we can develop this sector locally
[00:12:04] more quickly, because after
[00:12:08] all, we don't know when the current
[00:12:11] crisis in the Middle
[00:12:14] East will end, we don't know when the war in Ukraine will end, and
[00:12:18] as long as these two crises,
[00:12:22] these two wars continue, it is...
[00:12:25] difficult to say that there is no need to
[00:12:29] invest in batteries or that we shouldn't
[00:12:32] make some backup plans that would make
[00:12:36] us more resilient, more independent
[00:12:39] from this whole area of
[00:12:42] energy that is produced from fossil
[00:12:45] fuels. Professor, under these
[00:12:49] conditions, how do all these shocks affect the entire world
[00:12:52] economy?
[00:12:56] I think the recent decision of the European Central Bank
[00:12:59] to raise, to increase the monetary
[00:13:03] policy rate, is a good
[00:13:07] example of what the consequences
[00:13:10] of global crises mean,
[00:13:13] which practically affect
[00:13:16] everyone and which are beginning
[00:13:19] to show their very
[00:13:22] concrete consequences, because ...
[00:13:26] from, again, from Romania's perspective, which is struggling with a large budget deficit,
[00:13:30] which has a current account deficit, which has all kinds of twin
[00:13:34] and superimposed deficits, perhaps this increase
[00:13:38] in interest rates by 0.25%
[00:13:40] announced this week by the European Central
[00:13:43] Bank seems like a very small matter, but
[00:13:47] for economies more stable than the Romanian
[00:13:50] one, for countries that have
[00:13:53] managed to keep their inflation rate within parameters,
[00:13:57] the budget deficit within parameters, and so on, to arrive
[00:14:00] at seeing an increase in the inflation rate by 1% just due to
[00:14:04] an energy crisis, the crisis in
[00:14:08] the fuel sector, is indeed a worrying issue, which
[00:14:11] evidently, in those economies will have consequences
[00:14:15] that will roll over into other sectors very quickly, because
[00:14:19] when transportation becomes significantly more expensive,
[00:14:23] all other products in the economy also
[00:14:26] become more expensive. So, we do see
[00:14:30] the consequences of interconnectedness,
[00:14:32] interdependence between states
[00:14:36] and the consequences of the fact that a
[00:14:39] major crisis, when it appears or manifests
[00:14:42] in one part of the world, spares no one,
[00:14:46] leaves no one out, precisely because
[00:14:49] we have so many issues that are deeply interconnected
[00:14:53] in the world economy. Under
[00:14:57] these conditions, how close or how
[00:15:00] far are we from a world economic crisis, as we
[00:15:03] experienced in the past? We remember 2008, when
[00:15:06] everyone was shocked by that crisis.
[00:15:10] The context is very different. We do have,
[00:15:14] indeed, issues that spread from
[00:15:18] one part of the planet to another very quickly,
[00:15:21] but here we are not dealing with
[00:15:25] a crisis caused by moral hazard, by decisions that were
[00:15:29] taken irresponsibly, because
[00:15:32] the rules of the game were not correctly
[00:15:35] thought out, as happened before the 2008
[00:15:39] crisis. Let's remember that then things started
[00:15:42] when funds and, well, some
[00:15:44] banks started granting
[00:15:48] loans that did not have sufficient
[00:15:51] coverage in a context where we could see
[00:15:55] a significant drop in prices in
[00:15:58] the real estate market.
[00:16:02] Today, the rules, at least in the European Union, are stricter,
[00:16:05] which means that the system is more resilient
[00:16:08] to a crisis similar to that of
[00:16:12] 2008. Moreover, what we are seeing happening
[00:16:15] at this moment, again, to make a comparison
[00:16:19] between what is happening in the rest of the countries in the European Union
[00:16:22] and what is happening in Romania,
[00:16:26] Romania has shown or has shown the European Union
[00:16:29] that there is a lot of room
[00:16:32] for a country to deepen its
[00:16:35] problems before they become chronic. After
[00:16:39] all, our country has been in an excessive deficit procedure for seven
[00:16:43] years. We are in a situation that
[00:16:46] has worsened because Romanian politicians have not made
[00:16:49] the wisest decisions, at least not
[00:16:52] always, and yet, only
[00:16:55] recently have we started to see a deterioration
[00:16:59] of economic parameters for the real
[00:17:02] economy, which is truly beginning to be felt
[00:17:06] by the public. Practically, until last year in
[00:17:09] Romania, incomes grew faster than prices,
[00:17:13] and only in the last year, when the necessary
[00:17:17] measures for recovery were finally started, did
[00:17:20] this reverse. We remain to see for how long this will happen,
[00:17:24] but the conclusion from my point of view is that in
[00:17:27] Europe, at least, there is a lot of resilience, there is sufficient
[00:17:31] reserve to be able to absorb
[00:17:34] the shock of this crisis in the energy
[00:17:38] sector at the level at which it is currently manifesting, and even at a
[00:17:41] more accentuated level. It would take significantly
[00:17:45] more to see economic problems that would very
[00:17:48] seriously affect the entire European economy. But if
[00:17:52] we talk about resilience, which areas of the world are more resilient
[00:17:56] and which are subject to much greater risks at this moment in
[00:17:59] the context, again, we are talking about these energy crises and these wars
[00:18:03] that have been launched. Here again,
[00:18:08] it's a thousand-point question,
[00:18:11] or perhaps even more, because when we realize who
[00:18:15] is most resilient to all the negative
[00:18:18] factors that can influence the world economy or
[00:18:21] the economy of a particular country,
[00:18:25] we have the answer to the question of where to put our money
[00:18:28] so that it is safe. Well, this is a question
[00:18:32] whose answer is sought by many specialists in
[00:18:36] the investment fund sector and capital markets. What
[00:18:40] I can tell you from interesting data I've seen recently
[00:18:44] is that in the context of a profound
[00:18:47] energy crisis, we have
[00:18:50] absolutely surprising countries like Uruguay, which
[00:18:53] is an example of resilience or
[00:18:56] which has the necessary factors to make this
[00:19:00] country resist better to crises
[00:19:02] in the global energy sector, due to
[00:19:06] its energy mix, due to the very
[00:19:09] high proportion of hydro energy
[00:19:13] in the national energy mix, to give an explanation related to
[00:19:16] the source of this resilience. But of course, as we have
[00:19:19] learned since the pandemic, whenever
[00:19:23] you are very sure that things are well protected
[00:19:27] and all your plans are well made, a black
[00:19:31] swan can appear from nowhere, a completely unexpected
[00:19:34] negative event that can disrupt all your plans.
[00:19:38] We discussed the oil market because we are
[00:19:41] approaching winter. We don't know what winter
[00:19:44] 2026, 2027 will be like. How does
[00:19:48] the gas market look in the current
[00:19:50] context? Here, again,
[00:19:54] the disruptions in this market are many and
[00:19:58] of significant proportions. Many European
[00:20:01] countries have, in principle, already
[00:20:04] made sufficient reserves to allow
[00:20:08] a normal winter to be successfully managed.
[00:20:11] Here it depends very much on how winter will be, in fact, whether we will have
[00:20:15] a normal winter or if temperatures
[00:20:19] will be exceptionally low.
[00:20:22] Calculations, of course, can change a lot depending
[00:20:25] on the climate, on what
[00:20:28] climate change will bring us this year. Beyond
[00:20:32] that, it's very important to say that the United States
[00:20:35] is in a privileged position at the moment, because
[00:20:39] they manage to export
[00:20:43] liquefied natural gas in large quantities without having
[00:20:46] the problems that affect the countries
[00:20:50] in the Gulf region. Here again, we can talk about an
[00:20:54] advantage for the United States when it comes to natural gas
[00:20:57] supply, but I would not
[00:21:00] rush to declare the United States as the big
[00:21:03] winner in the gas
[00:21:07] industry of the current situation, because here too,
[00:21:10] many things can change not
[00:21:13] only before winter starts, but until this winter 2026,
[00:21:17] 2027 passes. We might see many calculations that will be
[00:21:20] changed in unexpected ways.
[00:21:24] Since
[00:21:27] you mentioned the United States, there are elections coming up in
[00:21:30] November, elections for part of
[00:21:33] Congress and part of
[00:21:36] the Senate, the so-called Middle Elections. France
[00:21:40] is preparing, France, one of the important states of
[00:21:43] Europe, of the European Union, is also preparing for
[00:21:46] presidential elections. There are political instabilities
[00:21:50] in Germany as well, it
[00:21:52] seems. How much do political calculations overlap
[00:21:56] with economic ones and endanger the European
[00:21:59] economy?
[00:22:03] The overlap is quite small, let's start with that.
[00:22:06] So there are many things that don't
[00:22:10] correspond in the political area and with the economic
[00:22:13] area. So there are countries that have economic problems and
[00:22:17] a political situation...
[00:22:20] which at least for now seems more favorable. We expect to see
[00:22:23] developments that do not bring significant
[00:22:26] disturbances, and at the same time, we have
[00:22:29] countries where
[00:22:33] things are not good either economically or
[00:22:36] politically. Here Romania is a better
[00:22:39] example than Bulgaria this
[00:22:42] time. However, it
[00:22:45] will be very interesting to follow what will
[00:22:49] happen with all these sets of elections
[00:22:52] that are going in
[00:22:55] directions, let's call them interesting, because
[00:22:58] we have a
[00:23:00] sustained growth, even of far-right
[00:23:04] parties in many European countries, not
[00:23:07] in all of those countries. Here again, Germany is an interesting
[00:23:10] example. However,
[00:23:13] to be very clear, from an economic
[00:23:16] point of view, what nationalists
[00:23:18] propose, what far-right
[00:23:22] extremists propose,
[00:23:24] is generally just as detrimental as what
[00:23:28] far-left extremists propose. So, for the economy,
[00:23:32] this sovereignism, this
[00:23:35] inward turn, so that it's just us and our
[00:23:38] own, is contrary
[00:23:41] to the rules of economics and how economic systems function
[00:23:45] well, when they are allowed to
[00:23:49] function well. So, unfortunately, if we see
[00:23:52] a very large increase in the far-right sector,
[00:23:56] we will have worse economic results. If we
[00:24:00] see a very large increase in
[00:24:03] the far-left sector, we will again see
[00:24:07] a series of much weaker results from an economic
[00:24:10] point of view. Mrs. Năsulea, as we are nearing
[00:24:13] the end, I would like to ask you how Romania enters this
[00:24:16] winter, so we are at the beginning of autumn, the first half of September,
[00:24:20] and how does it cope with these
[00:24:24] crises?
[00:24:27] In principle, we are well prepared, so in principle our
[00:24:30] country has enough means
[00:24:34] to ensure those things that are
[00:24:38] truly important. So, practically,
[00:24:41] we have fuel we can get, we have gas put
[00:24:44] aside and we can get more. The big
[00:24:47] question right now seems to be how much it will
[00:24:51] cost. This is actually the big problem for the
[00:24:54] Romanian state, because the Romanian state has assumed
[00:24:58] and continues to assume all kinds of things that are not necessarily
[00:25:02] the most productive or that one cannot
[00:25:05] necessarily afford, and then the problem in Romania is not
[00:25:09] fortunately where we will
[00:25:12] get products to heat ourselves or to ensure
[00:25:15] transportation, the problem is how much they will
[00:25:18] cost and. I would add to this, because
[00:25:22] there are still various schemes of
[00:25:25] practically capping prices that are fixed by the
[00:25:29] Romanian state in the natural gas area, the other problem is
[00:25:33] how big the additional hole will be in the state
[00:25:36] budget that will be left by all these
[00:25:39] mechanisms that were
[00:25:42] introduced in the past and which the Romanian state does not want or
[00:25:46] cannot eliminate at this moment and the last question what
[00:25:49] risk"? do you see for the Republic of Moldova in this global
[00:25:53] context in which we find ourselves?
[00:25:56] We are generally worried
[00:25:59] about the Republic of Moldova, first of all because there is.
[00:26:02] there is a security risk that somehow
[00:26:05] hovers over
[00:26:09] Moldova, which could lead to a
[00:26:12] worsening of the situation from the point of view of
[00:26:15] democratic institutions, first of all from the point of
[00:26:18] view of the path that I think
[00:26:22] that the citizens of the Republic of Moldova
[00:26:25] want, beyond
[00:26:27] that, somehow, unfortunately, the economy of Moldova.
[00:26:30] nefericire economia Moldovei.
[00:26:33] it is very small because it has been
[00:26:37] affected for many long years
[00:26:40] in which the systems and institutions in
[00:26:44] the Republic of Moldova have functioned against
[00:26:47] the free market, they have functioned against minimum systems
[00:26:50] that are necessary for the
[00:26:54] economy to be able to prosper, but
[00:26:57] somehow the good news is that, having
[00:27:00] an economy that has remained... ähh so small the Republic of
[00:27:04] Moldova, the big brother, Romania, I mean here,
[00:27:08] can quite easily come and help,
[00:27:11] to support things in the Republic of Moldova, no matter how
[00:27:15] big the budgetary problems of
[00:27:18] Romania are, practically to
[00:27:21] ensure the necessary electrical energy, to
[00:27:24] ensure those things
[00:27:27] that are necessary in order to
[00:27:30] be able to get through the coming winter well,
[00:27:34] the costs can be covered
[00:27:38] and I think they will be covered by
[00:27:40] the Romanian state precisely through the fact that
[00:27:44] compared to the cumulation of problems that the
[00:27:47] Romanian state has at this moment, the resolution or
[00:27:50] an aid granted to the Republic of Moldova represents too
[00:27:54] small an amount to
[00:27:57] from granting aid that is otherwise very
[00:28:01] necessary in order to be able to
[00:28:04] support the democratic and free market
[00:28:07] path of the Republic of Moldova in such a way that the standard of living in the two
[00:28:11] countries slowly slowly
[00:28:15] approaches and I am not referring to
[00:28:18] this thinking about the fact that the standard of living in
[00:28:21] Romania could decrease, I am referring precisely to
[00:28:25] the option where the Republic of Moldova slowly starts
[00:28:28] to catch up, to reach where it should
[00:28:31] have been if it had had reforms and
[00:28:35] stronger democratic institutions that would allow it to
[00:28:39] develop more, faster. Mr.
[00:28:43] Cristiana, thank you very much, we will certainly have the opportunity to
[00:28:46] discuss again, because unfortunately global crises do not
[00:28:50] end when we turn off the spotlights
[00:28:54] on television. Thank you very much for being with us and we welcome you back to
[00:28:57] impact plus and global impact,
[00:29:04] you for being with us today at
[00:29:08] impact plus, here where we find out everything that
[00:29:11] happens globally and as you have been able to
[00:29:14] convince yourselves today, a gunshot fired thousands of kilometers from us
[00:29:48] Wherever life takes them, Romanians want to know, to
[00:29:51] understand what is happening. I am
[00:29:54] Angela Avram and I am waiting for you at Info Diaspora.
[00:29:57] The show dedicated to you, the international TVR
[00:30:00] audience.
[00:30:02] Diaspora always finds essential