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[00:03:08] Let's go,
[00:05:10] Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Impact Plus,
[00:05:13] where we discuss the great democracies of
[00:05:16] the world, as well as countries that are in the process of
[00:05:20] democratization, about the dangers that threaten the
[00:05:24] fight for democracy and for freedom. Today we go
[00:05:27] to the United States, which is also considered the most
[00:05:30] important democratic country in the world, the oldest, one of the oldest
[00:05:34] democracies in the world, which is now entering the electoral
[00:05:38] fever, and what challenges these elections face. Will
[00:05:42] the Trump administration manage to maintain political control
[00:05:45] over the country, and how do these
[00:05:49] elections influence the wars that are being waged at
[00:05:52] this moment all over the world? We are talking about the war in Iran, about
[00:05:56] the war in Yemen, and of course about the war
[00:05:59] in Ukraine. Today we have a special guest, it is
[00:06:03] Ms. Antonia Pup, doctoral
[00:06:05] researcher at the European
[00:06:09] University Institute. Ms. Pup, welcome to Impact Plus and thank you for being
[00:06:12] with us. Thank you very much for
[00:06:15] the invitation and I greet
[00:06:18] your viewers.
[00:06:21] I was talking about the greatest democracy in the world. Please
[00:06:25] tell me if I was right
[00:06:27] or not. Indeed,
[00:06:30] it is
[00:06:34] in any case about
[00:06:37] the state that still exercises a certain hegemony
[00:06:40] on the international scene. It
[00:06:42] is about the nation that, after
[00:06:46] all, sets the tone not only in terms of
[00:06:50] the alliance system of which Romania and
[00:06:53] the Republic of Moldova are part, but also
[00:06:57] the champion and
[00:07:00] the nation that defines everything that
[00:07:04] currently means a standard of
[00:07:07] technology, so especially in the context
[00:07:10] where, as you said. "there are very
[00:07:13] many ongoing
[00:07:16] wars, and
[00:07:20] NATO is in a realignment process,
[00:07:24] all the more so, I believe, these elections will
[00:07:27] be decisive. The
[00:07:30] midterm elections that will conclude
[00:07:33] in the first days of November
[00:07:37] are very important, not
[00:07:40] only because we look more at the foreign
[00:07:43] policy aspect, not
[00:07:47] only from the perspective of the immediate levers that
[00:07:50] Congress could
[00:07:53] influence, because Congress still has limited powers when it comes
[00:07:57] to the diplomatic apparatus of the United States, but
[00:08:00] rather it's worth looking at them because it is ultimately
[00:08:04] a referendum on the
[00:08:07] Trump presidency and
[00:08:10] a moment when certain
[00:08:14] themes will be tested in preparation for
[00:08:17] 2028. Yes, I made a small
[00:08:21] foray, but I would like you to explain what these
[00:08:24] midterm elections mean, because they are somewhat
[00:08:27] different from what we are used to here in Europe
[00:08:31] and in Romania or the Republic of Moldova. Here we have elections
[00:08:35] in which we elect either the president, or the local government, or
[00:08:38] the parliamentary power. What do these elections mean and how
[00:08:42] do they take place, how does this process unfold for
[00:08:45] Americans? They are parliamentary
[00:08:48] elections, practically, if I were to draw a
[00:08:52] quick analogy to the European
[00:08:55] system, practically we are talking about elections that
[00:08:59] will influence how Congress
[00:09:01] looks. It is very important to say
[00:09:04] that citizens will go to the polls to
[00:09:08] elect their representatives who will then go to Washington and will
[00:09:13] support that constituency to
[00:09:16] achieve certain projects. Obviously there are
[00:09:19] certain states, for example, like Texas, which
[00:09:23] we know clearly will go,
[00:09:26] no matter what, they vote with the Republicans,
[00:09:29] or for example New York, in New York and
[00:09:33] even in the District of Columbia, the Democrats
[00:09:36] are in power, so there are
[00:09:39] states, blue.
[00:09:43] But these swing states are very important,
[00:09:46] for example Michigan, for example
[00:09:49] Pennsylvania, because there
[00:09:53] the Democrats and Republicans fight directly. Even
[00:09:57] though now in November we will have the actual
[00:10:00] elections, considering that it is known that, for
[00:10:03] example, Illinois will still send Democratic
[00:10:07] senators, practically the winner has already
[00:10:10] been decided because...
[00:10:13] the real race was when
[00:10:15] the primaries took place, in which
[00:10:19] only people from
[00:10:22] the Democratic party or
[00:10:25] they fought among themselves, so I say these elections are important not only to see
[00:10:29] what Congress will look like and a victory for the
[00:10:32] Democrats is emerging, at least to
[00:10:36] take over power in the House of Representatives,
[00:10:39] which is the equivalent
[00:10:43] of our House of Deputies - and they also have
[00:10:47] the Senate, they being fewer in the Senate, only
[00:10:51] 100, and they
[00:10:54] are much more... seen as a more
[00:10:56] select chamber, they are important not only from the perspective
[00:11:00] of how the actual governance will look,
[00:11:03] the parliamentary power, but also to see
[00:11:07] what kind
[00:11:10] of, in what directions the two parties will go, because
[00:11:14] even within these two large parties there are many factions and
[00:11:18] perhaps on this occasion it is worth mentioning
[00:11:21] that the European Council on Foreign Relations just
[00:11:25] launched this week a quite comprehensive study that
[00:11:29] talks about three camps that currently exist
[00:11:32] in the Democratic party,
[00:11:35] so although the hard core of the Democratic party is
[00:11:39] still an internationalist one, one more
[00:11:42] aligned with the bipartisan consensus on foreign
[00:11:46] policy with the US that must maintain a robust military
[00:11:49] presence in Europe, for example,
[00:11:53] at least two other
[00:11:56] factions are emerging. Once we talk about the reformist faction, which
[00:12:00] is somewhere between
[00:12:03] the extreme and this hard internationalist
[00:12:06] core, which only seeks
[00:12:09] to modify in certain aspects American
[00:12:13] governance, to reform the state more to
[00:12:17] provide social benefits for citizens, and
[00:12:21] it will be very interesting to follow
[00:12:24] how the revolutionaries
[00:12:27] will emerge, because there are
[00:12:30] it's about a wave, I would say that
[00:12:33] they are certainly very far from being truly
[00:12:37] influential in the Democratic party, but we are talking
[00:12:41] about politicians like
[00:12:44] Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
[00:12:47] politicians supported by the progressive wave with Zoran
[00:12:51] Mandami, the Mayor of New York, Jim Crow.
[00:12:55] Ro Khanna from California, those
[00:12:59] who are much more,
[00:13:02] much more skeptical of the military engagement of
[00:13:06] the United States in,
[00:13:09] around the globe. So, it's not
[00:13:13] important only for what Congress will look like and what the
[00:13:16] 2028 election year will look like, but also for
[00:13:19] challenging us Europeans to think
[00:13:22] about whether, indeed, with the Democrats,
[00:13:26] we would return to that romantic period of
[00:13:29] transatlantic partnership, as we knew it, with very
[00:13:32] few costs, with shared common values that
[00:13:36] could mobilize various external efforts, with aid for
[00:13:39] Ukraine, after all,
[00:13:43] I know that even this summer,
[00:13:46] the emeritus president of the Progressive Caucus in the House
[00:13:50] of Representatives was
[00:13:53] on a visit to Brussels, because they are also looking, just as
[00:13:57] MAGA was looking for transnational allies, they
[00:14:00] are also doing it among progressives, and
[00:14:03] they are quite skeptical about continuing
[00:14:07] to support NATO just as a military
[00:14:11] alliance. Let's remember
[00:14:15] the pacifist rhetoric of Senator Bernie
[00:14:17] Sanders and let's return to talking
[00:14:21] less about war and talking more about
[00:14:24] peace, about human rights as being at the foundation
[00:14:28] of American foreign policy. Ms.
[00:14:31] Pup, you said that these elections are also a poll for
[00:14:35] the Trump administration. In the
[00:14:37] previous presidential elections when there was also a vote
[00:14:41] for a part of Congress and Senate, Donald Trump
[00:14:47] the Republicans. What does Donald Trump represent at this moment,
[00:14:50] because I saw statements by the President of the United States in
[00:14:54] which he promised money, in which
[00:14:57] he promised to vote for him, meaning by voting Republican, you vote for him. What
[00:15:01] does Donald Trump represent at this moment, is he a locomotive or is he a stone that
[00:15:04] weighs down the Republican
[00:15:07] Party?
[00:15:10] That's a very good question. I would
[00:15:13] add to the examples you already
[00:15:15] mentioned that recently Vice President JD
[00:15:19] Vance appeared with a message in which he says that
[00:15:23] he addresses his electorate,
[00:15:27] saying that we need more time,
[00:15:30] that we need you to give us another vote
[00:15:33] of confidence, a blank check if
[00:15:36] possible, to achieve the reforms
[00:15:40] we have proposed. He is also the one who
[00:15:42] was now appointed by President Trump to
[00:15:46] be the president of an intergovernmental
[00:15:49] commission to combat
[00:15:52] corruption, somehow again we see very
[00:15:56] many almost populist
[00:15:58] efforts
[00:16:01] to address an
[00:16:04] electorate that is left behind, it's
[00:16:07] about the rural electorate, from socially
[00:16:11] disadvantaged areas that
[00:16:15] doesn't understand how it was possible for President
[00:16:18] Trump to allow what happened
[00:16:22] with the war in Iran. I would tend to believe
[00:16:25] that indeed
[00:16:28] a rapid
[00:16:31] decrease in the popularity of the
[00:16:34] incumbent president. I think that
[00:16:37] we are skeptical, we are, we must be
[00:16:41] skeptical about the future of
[00:16:44] MAGA, if we can talk about a future MAGA in Trump's
[00:16:48] absence, I honestly don't think so, because MAGA
[00:16:52] was a political coalition
[00:16:55] so intimately linked to the figure of President
[00:16:58] Trump that
[00:17:01] I wouldn't see a
[00:17:05] possible successor who could
[00:17:08] attract the same level of popularity, but
[00:17:11] I think locally already there will
[00:17:14] be
[00:17:16] people who try to position themselves for
[00:17:20] 2028. Nevertheless, I don't think
[00:17:23] the elections for Congress will
[00:17:26] prevent Donald Trump from remaining that very active
[00:17:29] president on the international scene,
[00:17:32] very
[00:17:37] willing to address certain aspects
[00:17:40] head-on, so I don't think it would
[00:17:43] stop him. So maybe in a way, he is a
[00:17:46] millstone around the Republican party's neck at the moment,
[00:17:50] but the Republican party will not be a millstone around
[00:17:54] Donald Trump's neck. However, I think it's important
[00:17:57] for Europe, for European leaders to think about how
[00:18:01] they will be able to create some
[00:18:04] ties with the current Democratic party,
[00:18:08] which is no longer that internationalist
[00:18:11] Democrat across the entire
[00:18:15] spectrum of its leaders, as we have
[00:18:18] become accustomed to up to President Biden, and
[00:18:21] I would say that the last, the last
[00:18:25] truly transatlantic presidency
[00:18:28] at the White House. In other words, we must understand that
[00:18:32] that
[00:18:35] isolation that Donald Trump brought to the White House
[00:18:38] is at this moment, it is a kind of
[00:18:41] trans-partisan slogan for the entire American establishment and for
[00:18:45] the American population.
[00:18:48] For the establishment, I don't think so, because
[00:18:51] I am convinced that in American
[00:18:54] institutions, especially those in the national security and
[00:18:57] foreign policy ecosystem,
[00:19:00] the role of alliances is still seen.
[00:19:04] There are people who realize that when it comes
[00:19:08] to strategic competition with China, for example, on the technology side, on the
[00:19:12] rare earths side, the US
[00:19:15] cannot win this competition without
[00:19:18] allies, who are not just a
[00:19:21] burden, as we often
[00:19:23] hear, who are tempted to free-
[00:19:27] ride on the defense budget of the
[00:19:30] United States, which is an impressive one at
[00:19:34] the Pentagon, but we are talking about the role that
[00:19:38] allies play in
[00:19:40] multiplying the objectives of the United States in
[00:19:44] their own regions and in ensuring a certain order, so
[00:19:48] I think the establishment continues to cling
[00:19:52] to these alliances, including
[00:19:54] NATO. I think the analysis environment as
[00:19:57] well, clings to
[00:20:00] the preservation of these international cooperation
[00:20:03] mechanisms. However, I think that political elites
[00:20:07] are increasingly less willing
[00:20:11] to focus on an international
[00:20:14] agenda of
[00:20:17] hegemony and much more
[00:20:21] willing to try to
[00:20:24] solve problems domestically
[00:20:26] and to have an approach on the international
[00:20:29] scene that is more
[00:20:31] à la carte. However, I think it's
[00:20:35] very interesting to note that for
[00:20:39] the first time this bipartisan
[00:20:42] consensus does not only affect Europe,
[00:20:46] NATO, whether we support Ukraine or not.
[00:20:50] Time for another sensitive topic,
[00:20:54] which is contested in the American
[00:20:57] political environment, namely support for
[00:21:00] Israel. There are many people,
[00:21:02] both people
[00:21:06] from the more extreme,
[00:21:10] more radical wing of the Republican party, as well
[00:21:12] as from the very radical wing of the Democratic party, the
[00:21:16] ultra-progressives, pacifists,
[00:21:20] who believe that the United States was drawn into
[00:21:23] this war by the
[00:21:27] government led by
[00:21:30] Mr. Netanyahu, for example,
[00:21:33] one of the chairmen
[00:21:37] in the Senate, yes, we're talking about the committee that oversees the American
[00:21:40] intelligence community, Tim
[00:21:43] Cotton, who is a prominent Republican leader
[00:21:47] and also had messages from the
[00:21:50] "America First" camp. He is challenged by his own
[00:21:54] party colleagues because he introduced a law
[00:21:57] as part of the NDAA, through which
[00:22:00] to ensure that no American president would be able
[00:22:04] to limit, or no political
[00:22:07] power
[00:22:09] temporarily in the decision-making spectrum would be able to
[00:22:13] limit the
[00:22:16] exchange of information that takes place between the United States and Israel, which.
[00:22:20] "after all, is at a very
[00:22:22] intimate level, but not as intimate as
[00:22:26] perhaps exists at the level of
[00:22:28] alliances.
[00:22:30] And Israel, as I said, is a topic
[00:22:34] that divides both parties at the moment,
[00:22:37] given the extension of the
[00:22:40] war in Iran and the high cost of
[00:22:43] living, which are the secondary
[00:22:46] effects of the US engaging in another
[00:22:50] war in the Middle East. Ms.
[00:22:53] Pup, we know that in the previous elections President Trump, one
[00:22:57] of the topics, one of the most important topics discussed
[00:23:01] in the election campaign, of course, was the war in Ukraine, it was the
[00:23:05] migration problem. What issues are currently
[00:23:08] concerning the American electorate and
[00:23:12] what are on the agenda for each
[00:23:15] candidate who is now running for these midterm
[00:23:18] elections?
[00:23:21] The big, big theme is still the cost of
[00:23:24] living, economic
[00:23:26] themes, the price at
[00:23:29] the pump, the price of
[00:23:32] food, which have increased quite
[00:23:35] a lot, considering the
[00:23:38] disruptions that have occurred
[00:23:41] in the energy market,
[00:23:44] with the war in Iran. However, the
[00:23:48] question
[00:23:50] is whether Europe and our region, Ukraine,
[00:23:54] for example, are on the agenda. The same
[00:23:57] study I was telling you about,
[00:24:01] but also a personal analysis shows
[00:24:04] us that
[00:24:07] we are not talking about Europe or Ukraine as
[00:24:11] a subject on the agenda of the midterm elections at the moment,
[00:24:14] by any means. But more than
[00:24:18] that, the theme that
[00:24:22] is emerging to be central both
[00:24:25] in these elections and in the
[00:24:28] 2028 elections also has an
[00:24:31] economic component for American society, and
[00:24:35] for us even a
[00:24:38] geopolitical component, a component
[00:24:42] that relates to the strategic partnership with the United States, that you
[00:24:46] heard the President of Romania
[00:24:50] say that he wants to attract more American
[00:24:53] investments in our country. We know that
[00:24:56] President Maia
[00:24:59] Sandu also wants to develop
[00:25:03] the economic partnership with Washington, but
[00:25:06] the topic that, as I said, is the most
[00:25:08] sensitive is
[00:25:12] artificial intelligence. There are many
[00:25:16] states, around 5.
[00:25:20] So, we are talking about a representative
[00:25:24] number of states
[00:25:26] that want
[00:25:28] to organize
[00:25:32] these
[00:25:34] referendums and to
[00:25:37] have moratoriums to
[00:25:40] stop the establishment of new data
[00:25:44] centers in those communities. Local
[00:25:47] communities in the United States are
[00:25:50] very concerned about the environmental costs that come with
[00:25:54] these technological projects. I
[00:25:57] remember that a congresswoman from
[00:26:00] the House of Representatives during a hearing
[00:26:04] came with a jar full of black
[00:26:07] water, which was
[00:26:11] meant to show how water
[00:26:14] sources are affected by the existence of these
[00:26:17] data centers. New York State, for example, has
[00:26:21] a new law, a law that says
[00:26:25] stop the construction of new data
[00:26:28] centers. And this is a...
[00:26:32] an issue of environmental cost, but also how the economy
[00:26:36] will look once these advanced
[00:26:39] artificial intelligence models are integrated
[00:26:42] into the labor market, which will
[00:26:45] result in automation, in an
[00:26:49] increase in productivity for those companies, but also an
[00:26:52] unprecedented layoff of the workforce,
[00:26:56] and this especially affects young
[00:27:00] people who today do not have a professional
[00:27:03] integration horizon, and this
[00:27:07] issue will certainly reach Europe
[00:27:10] in the coming years. Europe
[00:27:13] is now looking to attract
[00:27:16] hyperscalers to our
[00:27:20] states, and to catch up
[00:27:23] with this artificial intelligence revolution, which
[00:27:27] has the United States and China as its
[00:27:29] main protagonists. But I think that our
[00:27:33] political elites need to think, to learn from what is happening
[00:27:37] across the ocean and to communicate with the
[00:27:40] population in advance about what
[00:27:43] such a large-capital technological project entails.
[00:27:46] You mentioned the 2028
[00:27:49] election year, when new
[00:27:53] presidential elections will be held. I understand Donald Trump can no
[00:27:56] longer run because he is at the end, he will be at the end of his
[00:28:00] second term in 2020.
[00:28:02] The internal elections, those called
[00:28:06] primaries, would begin in '27. What do
[00:28:09] the polls say, who is the favorite in
[00:28:12] the Democratic camp and who is the favorite
[00:28:14] in the Republican camp?
[00:28:17] In the Republican camp, I think at the moment
[00:28:21] it is well-known that
[00:28:23] we have two possible
[00:28:26] candidates with a presidential
[00:28:29] profile, but neither of them
[00:28:32] currently has enough national
[00:28:36] notoriety to say if they could
[00:28:39] truly be the successor to Donald Trump, who, after
[00:28:43] all, in his Hollywood style,
[00:28:46] was known by many people. The two
[00:28:49] contenders would be,
[00:28:51] according to the most recent analyses,
[00:28:55] Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of
[00:28:58] State Marco Rubio, with JD Vance being considered
[00:29:03] a MAGA hardliner, while Marco Rubio
[00:29:07] is seen as a more moderate leader, one who could
[00:29:11] cooperate. and with the leaders
[00:29:15] of the Democratic party, but it's still
[00:29:17] very early, I think this
[00:29:21] discussion will be able to be had more calmly after we
[00:29:24] see exactly who are the
[00:29:28] potential national profile leaders who will emerge from
[00:29:32] these elections for Congress, in the Democratic
[00:29:35] Party, I think at the moment,
[00:29:39] față,
[00:29:42] speaking of the three camps, I think
[00:29:45] the Democratic party is currently lacking
[00:29:49] coherent leadership.
[00:29:53] a possible comeback for Kamala
[00:29:57] Harris, who, after all, did not have a
[00:30:01] negligible performance in the
[00:30:05] elections against Donald Trump, especially since
[00:30:09] she also had limited financial resources
[00:30:11] that prevented her from
[00:30:14] going across the
[00:30:17] entire nation and addressing
[00:30:21] a small piece of the country, but
[00:30:23] besides that, we also have certain
[00:30:26] leaders who could
[00:30:29] be
[00:30:31] those who... give a new breath to the Democratic Party, we've already
[00:30:35] talked about
[00:30:38] Ms. Cortez from New York,
[00:30:41] who participated in the security conference in
[00:30:45] Munich, she's trying to address some more
[00:30:49] national
[00:30:51] themes, more foreign policy and security, more
[00:30:54] presidential, if you will,
[00:30:57] if we take it that way,