{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"governor-tn","chamber":"governor","state":"TN","state_name":"Tennessee","district":null,"special":false,"title":"Tennessee Governor","held":"R","incumbent":null,"open_seat":true,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":48.8,"poll_n":2,"latest_pct":54,"fec":null},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":33.5,"poll_n":2,"latest_pct":35,"fec":null},{"name":"David Hatley","party":"I","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":9.5,"poll_n":2,"latest_pct":7,"fec":null},{"name":"Lauren Pinkston","party":"I","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":1.2,"poll_n":2,"latest_pct":null,"fec":null}],"leader":{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":48.8,"lead":15.3},"money_leader":null,"flip_risk":null,"rating":"Safe","competitiveness":0.235,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":48.8,"polls":2},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","pct":33.5,"polls":2},{"name":"David Hatley","party":"I","pct":9.5,"polls":2},{"name":"Lauren Pinkston","party":"I","pct":1.2,"polls":2}],"margin":-15.3,"lead":15.3,"leader":{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":48.8},"n":2,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":0,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"002d090f-ed00-4351-ae62-3e25da1fcd33:41386f14-7c9c-467e-9b1b-a4028f9cfb2e","office":"governor","state":"TN","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2025-10-24","end":"2026-11-02","sample":718,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.targoz.com/market-matters-blog/2026/11/2/tennessee-poll-blackburn-leads-green-by-19-points-hagerty-leads-bradshaw-by-20-points","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Lauren Pinkston","party":"I","pct":1},{"name":"David Hatley","party":"I","pct":7},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","pct":35},{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":54}]},{"id":"ab6bbf3e-1625-4cc4-b385-c84de5abc74f:3911c448-145b-4e31-89e1-4249d96217af","office":"governor","state":"TN","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Spry Strategies","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-10","end":"2026-10-16","sample":635,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.spryresearch.com/post/tennessee-statewide-survey-october-2026","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Lauren Pinkston","party":"I","pct":1.4},{"name":"David Hatley","party":"I","pct":11.9},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","pct":32},{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":43.5}]},{"id":"86685846-3312-46a3-b60c-ad10e3055620:399dfd05-ba9a-43c1-9c95-937a2b24cb5d","office":"governor","state":"TN","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"TargetSmart","sponsor":"The Progress Fund PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-09","end":"2026-09-12","sample":600,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.tnprogressfund.com/polling","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Lauren Pinkston","party":"I","pct":2},{"name":"David Hatley","party":"I","pct":10},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","pct":36},{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":45}]},{"id":"83074200-303b-4eb1-ae96-fa16b4cc5da1:b341fca6-4b0a-445a-9721-2dcc3053c606","office":"governor","state":"TN","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","sponsor":"Beacon Center","partisan":null,"start":"2026-08-15","end":"2026-08-26","sample":601,"population":"lv","url":"https://tennsight.com/polls/august-2026/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Generic Candidate","party":"I","pct":7},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","pct":34},{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":55}]},{"id":"83074200-303b-4eb1-ae96-fa16b4cc5da1:ec45f22f-3d1e-4fc0-9a1b-0c4d81a2d14f","office":"governor","state":"TN","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Targoz Market Research","sponsor":"Beacon Center","partisan":null,"start":"2026-08-15","end":"2026-08-26","sample":1149,"population":"rv","url":"https://tennsight.com/polls/august-2026/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Generic Candidate","party":"I","pct":8},{"name":"Jerri Green","party":"D","pct":33},{"name":"Marsha Blackburn","party":"R","pct":46}]}],"poll_count":5,"money":{"total_raised":0,"outside_total":0,"source":null},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[{"advertiser":"David E. Hatley","spend_4w_usd":238800,"candidate":"David Hatley","party":"I"}],"candidate_4w_usd":238800,"state_lifetime_usd":25149900,"district_lifetime_usd":null,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":6087,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":952157,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Marsha Blackburn (R)":48.8,"Jerri Green (D)":33.5,"David Hatley (I)":9.5,"Lauren Pinkston (I)":1.2},"m":-15.3},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Marsha Blackburn (R)":48.8,"Jerri Green (D)":33.5,"David Hatley (I)":9.5,"Lauren Pinkston (I)":1.2},"m":-15.3}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/governor-tn"}