{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"governor-tx","chamber":"governor","state":"TX","state_name":"Texas","district":null,"special":false,"title":"Texas Governor","held":"R","incumbent":null,"open_seat":true,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":49.1,"poll_n":8,"latest_pct":46,"fec":null},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":47.6,"poll_n":8,"latest_pct":44,"fec":null},{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":1.4,"poll_n":4,"latest_pct":null,"fec":null}],"leader":{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":49.1,"lead":1.5},"money_leader":null,"flip_risk":null,"rating":"Toss-up","competitiveness":0.925,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":49.1,"polls":8},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":47.6,"polls":8},{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":1.4,"polls":4}],"margin":-1.5,"lead":1.5,"leader":{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":49.1},"n":8,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":0,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"b112cbf3-ab0d-490b-b374-6f83fd7f9545:9cfe90cc-f4c5-437a-81c8-1d45d72def68","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Research Co.","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-31","end":"2026-11-02","sample":450,"population":"lv","url":"https://researchco.ca/2026/11/02/midterms-2026-two/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":2},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":44},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":46}]},{"id":"ad45957d-ad76-4dd4-8ade-9fe70e9df712:8ff0ca6e-4577-4bb7-91d4-3023a5128456","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Emerson College","sponsor":"Poll Vault","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-31","end":"2026-11-01","sample":500,"population":"lv","url":"https://pollvault.substack.com/p/new-poll-vault-emerson-senate-and","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":1.4},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":48.9},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":49.7}]},{"id":"e516bc0a-6266-48e0-b4e9-73abd442e3ba:96860dca-5977-4d28-8a29-6a5d13c154c6","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"AtlasIntel","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-28","end":"2026-11-01","sample":1678,"population":"a","url":"https://www.atlasintel.org/poll/usa-texas-2026-11-01","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":47.6},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":49.2}]},{"id":"58393008-d203-4bf4-8bfd-aa610f32ab24:5b7c1e5d-e892-47f7-b978-dd37dd3016f9","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena University","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-01","sample":1215,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":46.6},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":48.1}]},{"id":"58393008-d203-4bf4-8bfd-aa610f32ab24:4a189818-58a7-4e0b-9c27-cd752fb68c80","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena University","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-01","sample":1215,"population":"rv","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":43.1},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":49.3}]},{"id":"45558885-837e-4d56-958e-ddd52081bad8:ae7cf95c-81b1-4c87-b9eb-d522b99a9b6a","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Kreate Strategies","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-10-30","sample":900,"population":"lv","url":"https://kstrat.net/press/texas-2026-senate-governor-talarico-leads-paxton-october","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":1},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":47},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":49}]},{"id":"4a8b3e3c-bb46-4a52-a75b-3eef218075c0:5f026779-aa2a-4716-8067-4dc1531a04a5","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-29","sample":2139,"population":"lv","url":"https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20261026_lv.pdf","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":50},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":49}]},{"id":"9778f4db-baf9-4465-ae48-83d320fcb293:4cb3c14f-08c0-4241-8022-04a7b457595b","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"ActiVote","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-23","end":"2026-10-29","sample":400,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-governor/2026-10-29/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":47.9},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":52.1}]},{"id":"efb35ed0-feb9-4785-8f6c-67a2f28a3148:438c67d3-c6e6-4df9-b36d-d101b46245c4","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Quantus Insights","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-28","sample":1214,"population":"lv","url":"https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/texas-survey-paxton-up-one-abbott-ahead-by-five","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":1.2},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":46.3},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":51.6}]},{"id":"136e2129-b776-4f8f-af7b-672c60515804:ee305812-2371-4f59-a4eb-1170d8e0440a","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"CNN/SSRS","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-20","end":"2026-10-27","sample":923,"population":"lv","url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Neither","party":null,"pct":4},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":48},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":46}]},{"id":"f31e142f-d353-45f2-8409-f4e442b6383c:96a21d1a-1f5d-41fc-947d-7841538759b7","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Data for Progress","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-23","end":"2026-10-26","sample":712,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":2},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":47},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":48}]},{"id":"f9198a5f-26a6-4d51-91e6-de346701bca2:41d5586f-854b-404d-b688-ebd5e1bea165","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"YouGov Blue","sponsor":"254 Labs","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-21","end":"2026-10-26","sample":1000,"population":"rv","url":"https://254labs.io/news/2026-10-tx","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":46},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":50}]},{"id":"f9198a5f-26a6-4d51-91e6-de346701bca2:3ab9ad0f-eeea-426b-bf1e-8117d463bc01","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"YouGov Blue","sponsor":"254 Labs","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-21","end":"2026-10-26","sample":1000,"population":"lv","url":"https://254labs.io/news/2026-10-tx","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":46},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":49}]},{"id":"fed5cc59-dd90-4943-88f8-a52dcb154bdc:5142f6ee-3197-430d-9779-eff5f6c6bea2","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-21","end":"2026-10-25","sample":2000,"population":"lv","url":"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ae28aaadbf6636957aa51e7/1793231530759/TSUStatewideOct2026.pdf","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pat Dixon","party":"L","pct":2},{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":47},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":50}]},{"id":"7a0a36a6-3db5-45a1-87cf-de2fcf9e7d2c:c0a5e73e-659d-4445-812b-3ac29893983c","office":"governor","state":"TX","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"Univision","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-13","end":"2026-10-21","sample":1000,"population":"rv","url":"https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-latinos","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D","pct":46},{"name":"Greg Abbott","party":"R","pct":48}]}],"poll_count":57,"money":{"total_raised":0,"outside_total":0,"source":null},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[{"advertiser":"TEXANS FOR GREG ABBOTT","spend_4w_usd":5173800,"candidate":"Greg Abbott","party":"R"},{"advertiser":"GINA HINOJOSA CAMPAIGN","spend_4w_usd":1334400,"candidate":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D"}],"candidate_4w_usd":6508200,"state_lifetime_usd":208101600,"district_lifetime_usd":null,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":595329,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[{"page":"Greg Abbott","disclaimer":"Texans for Greg Abbott","spend_usd":435765,"ads":14,"candidate":"Greg Abbott","party":"R"},{"page":"Rep. Gina Hinojosa","disclaimer":"Gina Hinojosa Campaign","spend_usd":328513,"ads":903,"candidate":"Gina Hinojosa","party":"D"}],"candidate_usd":764278,"state_usd":10067720,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Greg Abbott (R)":49.1,"Gina Hinojosa (D)":47.6,"Pat Dixon (L)":1.4},"m":-1.5},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Greg Abbott (R)":49.1,"Gina Hinojosa (D)":47.6,"Pat Dixon (L)":1.4},"m":-1.5}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/governor-tx"}