{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"house-ky-06","chamber":"house","state":"KY","state_name":"Kentucky","district":6,"special":false,"title":"Kentucky 6th District","held":null,"incumbent":null,"open_seat":true,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":46,"poll_n":5,"latest_pct":47,"fec":{"id":"H6KY06184","receipts":3205462,"disbursements":2585132,"cash":620330,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY06184/?cycle=2026","ie_support":589197,"ie_oppose":40000}},{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":40.2,"poll_n":5,"latest_pct":41,"fec":{"id":"H6KY06192","receipts":2307369,"disbursements":2126558,"cash":180812,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6KY06192/?cycle=2026","ie_support":205119,"ie_oppose":480000}}],"leader":{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":46,"lead":5.8},"money_leader":{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","receipts":3205462},"flip_risk":null,"rating":"Lean","competitiveness":0.71,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":46,"polls":5},{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":40.2,"polls":5}],"margin":5.8,"lead":5.8,"leader":{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":46},"n":5,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":5,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 5 pollsters since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"3a935783-1c6a-42e6-bb80-140996b33a96:39dda4df-34d4-4aee-81db-ae6201ad9a41","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"Public Policy Polling","sponsor":"House Majority PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-10-19","end":"2026-10-20","sample":null,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2112877284684341727?s=46","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":41},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":47}]},{"id":"ac27424c-cc80-4f99-bfbe-4fb762913fca:6e02adae-6e35-4a73-aa8a-a51f0ece5f7d","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"DCCC Targeting Team","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-10-02","end":"2026-10-05","sample":606,"population":"lv","url":"https://dccc.org/dccc-polling-memo-zach-dembo-continues-to-lead-in-ky-06/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Jay Bowman","party":"I","pct":5},{"name":"Pete Lynch","party":null,"pct":1},{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":40},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":46}]},{"id":"f75e9a78-ee1a-4538-a69d-89a50df372dd:2f1a62c8-7c13-4d2d-ab84-6a5bd0a15f9e","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"Change Research","sponsor":"Kentuckians Not Corruption","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-29","end":"2026-10-05","sample":524,"population":"lv","url":"https://fox56news.com/news/kentucky/new-poll-shows-democrats-with-9-point-lead-in-kentucky-6th-congressional-district-race/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":38},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":47}]},{"id":"53a7fa13-c413-40b9-ac25-7d545f89204d:ef4e5a66-cbff-4a89-82ad-35fd30393fcd","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"Lake Research Partners","sponsor":"House Majority PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-04","sample":400,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2108282466733818029","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":45},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":48}]},{"id":"53a7fa13-c413-40b9-ac25-7d545f89204d:9fe15e98-1732-4d6d-8e27-6852aec6ba1f","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"Lake Research Partners","sponsor":"House Majority PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-04","sample":400,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2108282466733818029","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Pete Lynch","party":null,"pct":1},{"name":"Jay Bowman","party":"I","pct":3},{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":40},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":46}]},{"id":"f449ae8e-89ab-4a30-a329-3d6f26a436f4:a353ef8f-eece-4c0a-96f3-eaefa03bb06c","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"GQR","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-25","end":"2026-09-30","sample":401,"population":"lv","url":"https://kentuckylantern.com/2026/10/02/internal-poll-shows-democrat-dembo-leads-gops-alvarado-in-central-kentucky-house-race/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":37},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":42}]},{"id":"e1baee06-61cd-4602-8782-9ba5750f3b23:8286c9d2-2bc4-4007-a83d-f56cea75341b","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"Lake Research Partners","sponsor":"House Majority PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-08-17","end":"2026-08-23","sample":null,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.ms.now/news/house-democrats-map-trump-midterms-money","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":44},{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":45}]},{"id":"b3a80974-ad5a-4c98-8928-0160b9eac678:52313532-96f7-487f-9220-c4b80e73b971","office":"house","state":"KY","district":6,"stage":"general","pollster":"DCCC Targeting Team","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-07-29","end":"2026-07-30","sample":474,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article316781408.html","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Zach Dembo","party":"D","pct":47},{"name":"Ralph Alvarado","party":"R","pct":47}]}],"poll_count":8,"money":{"total_raised":5512831,"outside_total":1314316,"source":"fec"},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[{"advertiser":"ZACH DEMBO FOR CONGRESS","spend_4w_usd":130800,"candidate":"Zach Dembo","party":"D"}],"candidate_4w_usd":130800,"state_lifetime_usd":30657200,"district_lifetime_usd":4495200,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":13934,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":706031,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Zach Dembo (D)":46,"Ralph Alvarado (R)":40.2},"m":5.8},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Zach Dembo (D)":46,"Ralph Alvarado (R)":40.2},"m":5.8}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/house-ky-06"}