{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"house-me-02","chamber":"house","state":"ME","state_name":"Maine","district":2,"special":false,"title":"Maine 2nd District","held":null,"incumbent":null,"open_seat":true,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":49,"poll_n":2,"latest_pct":52,"fec":{"id":"H6ME02148","receipts":3299130,"disbursements":2450906,"cash":848224,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ME02148/?cycle=2026","ie_support":13098,"ie_oppose":4229978}},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":48.5,"poll_n":2,"latest_pct":47,"fec":{"id":"H6ME02171","receipts":2964964,"disbursements":2520996,"cash":443968,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6ME02171/?cycle=2026","ie_support":230912,"ie_oppose":4481379}}],"leader":{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":49,"lead":0.5},"money_leader":{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","receipts":3299130},"flip_risk":null,"rating":"Toss-up","competitiveness":0.975,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":49,"polls":2},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":48.5,"polls":2}],"margin":-0.5,"lead":0.5,"leader":{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":49},"n":2,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":1,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 2 pollsters since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"874e66b5-2a4c-4aca-98bf-0a195be794af:99bb9b9d-1698-47ee-af9d-6938da9ea8d7","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"University of New Hampshire","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-10-31","sample":793,"population":"lv","url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1013/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":52},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":47}]},{"id":"a126058f-5842-4b2d-9251-ba3e0f2874bf:818d190f-5c21-41ef-a236-17618365416f","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"Tulchin Research","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-10-12","end":"2026-10-14","sample":500,"population":"lv","url":"https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/0cdb44a57dfd2687/fddf7303-full.pdf","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":46},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":50}]},{"id":"83712527-4e19-4c8f-9e44-b3c662594205:fe35ff91-39fc-49ed-a8c3-34026ca63141","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"Tulchin Research","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-27","end":"2026-09-30","sample":500,"population":"lv","url":"https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/becbcf38fb98ac79/b81aab79-full.pdf","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":48},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":50}]},{"id":"f25eb113-894c-4eaa-b591-a9257b79e807:62fc2a3e-a443-43c6-9b2d-14ceb4893309","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"University of New Hampshire","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-09-17","end":"2026-09-21","sample":622,"population":"lv","url":"https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1007/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":45},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":51}]},{"id":"b2619401-96a2-4c9e-847a-530e24cf3495:83c0b726-dd53-4395-b72f-22453fd4857f","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"Impact Research","sponsor":"House Majority PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-08","end":"2026-09-12","sample":500,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2099903179022340565","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":49},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":49}]},{"id":"1f6ed24d-8b93-4444-a8bc-f39f1c65f819:759998b6-19b4-41d8-9581-cd63c8762c14","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"DCCC Targeting Team","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-08-11","end":"2026-08-13","sample":621,"population":"lv","url":"https://dccc.org/%F0%9F%9A%A8-new-polls-dead-heat-in-me-02-as-matt-dunlap-gains-momentum/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":48},{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":49}]},{"id":"323bf26d-5b35-4615-bfab-ae10a8f170a1:410f904a-5cee-4936-aafc-79817177057f","office":"house","state":"ME","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"Tulchin Research","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-07-11","end":"2026-07-16","sample":600,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2079151831998230855","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Paul LePage","party":"R","pct":48},{"name":"Matt Dunlap","party":"D","pct":49}]}],"poll_count":7,"money":{"total_raised":6264094,"outside_total":8955367,"source":"fec"},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_4w_usd":0,"state_lifetime_usd":42656500,"district_lifetime_usd":18142000,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":467257,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":1718954,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Paul LePage (R)":49,"Matt Dunlap (D)":48.5},"m":-0.5},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Paul LePage (R)":49,"Matt Dunlap (D)":48.5},"m":-0.5}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/house-me-02"}