{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"house-mt-02","chamber":"house","state":"MT","state_name":"Montana","district":2,"special":false,"title":"Montana 2nd District","held":"R","incumbent":{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R"},"open_seat":false,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","incumbent":true,"poll_avg":29,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":29,"fec":{"id":"H4MT02098","receipts":2733160,"disbursements":2098043,"cash":746648,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4MT02098/?cycle=2026","ie_support":0,"ie_oppose":0}},{"name":"Brian Miller","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":18,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":18,"fec":null},{"name":"Michael Eisenhauer","party":"I","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":15,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":15,"fec":{"id":"H6MT02168","receipts":354191,"disbursements":330887,"cash":23304,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6MT02168/?cycle=2026","ie_support":0,"ie_oppose":0}},{"name":"Patrick McCracken","party":"L","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":2,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":null,"fec":null}],"leader":{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","pct":29,"lead":11},"money_leader":{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","receipts":2733160},"flip_risk":null,"rating":"Likely","competitiveness":0.45,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","pct":29,"polls":1},{"name":"Brian Miller","party":"D","pct":18,"polls":1},{"name":"Michael Eisenhauer","party":"I","pct":15,"polls":1},{"name":"Patrick McCracken","party":"L","pct":2,"polls":1}],"margin":-11,"lead":11,"leader":{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","pct":29},"n":1,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":0,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"81be1cc2-3c9d-4786-9ee7-9d01bceb06e7:b58771db-ecb1-4541-9630-7d90f0df9fad","office":"house","state":"MT","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"Montana State University Billings","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-05","end":"2026-10-21","sample":350,"population":"a","url":"https://dailymontanan.com/2026/10/29/mountain-state-poll-shows-close-races-for-federal-offices/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Michael Eisenhauer","party":"I","pct":15},{"name":"Patrick McCracken","party":"L","pct":2},{"name":"Brian Miller","party":"D","pct":18},{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","pct":29}]},{"id":"b611f1b0-7ca1-49c8-9c2d-29140802d492:5444a360-62b4-470c-8911-5e7c73562fe6","office":"house","state":"MT","district":2,"stage":"general","pollster":"Rutgers-Eagleton","sponsor":"Montana Free Press","partisan":null,"start":"2026-08-27","end":"2026-09-07","sample":null,"population":"rv","url":"https://montanafreepress.org/2026/09/11/alme-holds-an-8-point-lead-over-bodnar-in-senate-race/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Patrick McCracken","party":"L","pct":5},{"name":"Michael Eisenhauer","party":"I","pct":9},{"name":"Brian Miller","party":"D","pct":26},{"name":"Troy Downing","party":"R","pct":48}]}],"poll_count":2,"money":{"total_raised":3087351,"outside_total":0,"source":"fec"},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_4w_usd":0,"state_lifetime_usd":31488300,"district_lifetime_usd":null,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":8474,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":359402,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Troy Downing (R)":29,"Brian Miller (D)":18,"Michael Eisenhauer (I)":15,"Patrick McCracken (L)":2},"m":-11},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Troy Downing (R)":29,"Brian Miller (D)":18,"Michael Eisenhauer (I)":15,"Patrick McCracken (L)":2},"m":-11}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/house-mt-02"}