{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"house-oh-10","chamber":"house","state":"OH","state_name":"Ohio","district":10,"special":false,"title":"Ohio 10th District","held":"R","incumbent":{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R"},"open_seat":false,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":47,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":47,"fec":{"id":"H6OH10121","receipts":1015878,"disbursements":882433,"cash":133445,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH10121/?cycle=2026","ie_support":282,"ie_oppose":0}},{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","incumbent":true,"poll_avg":44,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":44,"fec":{"id":"H2OH03067","receipts":1315094,"disbursements":1420269,"cash":325250,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH03067/?cycle=2026","ie_support":0,"ie_oppose":533}},{"name":"Thomas McMasters","party":"L","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":4,"poll_n":1,"latest_pct":4,"fec":null}],"leader":{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":47,"lead":3},"money_leader":{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","receipts":1315094},"flip_risk":"R","rating":"Toss-up","competitiveness":0.85,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":47,"polls":1},{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","pct":44,"polls":1},{"name":"Thomas McMasters","party":"L","pct":4,"polls":1}],"margin":3,"lead":3,"leader":{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":47},"n":1,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":1,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 1 pollster since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"73249b3d-cd9b-46d5-afb6-dcfc1b11f13d:d1aa67cd-6b0b-4c4f-8c4f-334b086608a4","office":"house","state":"OH","district":10,"stage":"general","pollster":"DCCC Targeting Team","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-10-12","end":"2026-10-13","sample":535,"population":"lv","url":"https://dccc.org/dccc-polling-memo-knickerbocker-leads-turner-by-3-in-oh-10/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Thomas McMasters","party":"L","pct":4},{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","pct":44},{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":47}]},{"id":"92ea1dfe-337d-466b-817e-a89129a5f06d:e9acbb9e-cbee-4b82-8f55-48de2096af94","office":"house","state":"OH","district":10,"stage":"general","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-07-20","end":"2026-07-23","sample":700,"population":"lv","url":"https://punchbowl.news/oh-10-knickerbocker-memo-f07-24-26-3/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","pct":49},{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":42}]},{"id":"92ea1dfe-337d-466b-817e-a89129a5f06d:37e22a9b-7565-4f37-a156-396fe0364b55","office":"house","state":"OH","district":10,"stage":"general","pollster":"Global Strategy Group","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-07-20","end":"2026-07-23","sample":700,"population":"lv","url":"https://punchbowl.news/oh-10-knickerbocker-memo-f07-24-26-3/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Thomas McMasters","party":"L","pct":4},{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","pct":45},{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":40}]},{"id":"864c4938-85b1-4556-bc43-bccb3e4e21e5:88fb58cc-e4d9-446f-9594-9fdae60b3f44","office":"house","state":"OH","district":10,"stage":"general","pollster":"FM3 Research","sponsor":"House Majority PAC","partisan":"D","start":"2026-07-06","end":"2026-07-12","sample":null,"population":"lv","url":"https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_pK0ssxHljLwr1ZUPFkyb9B70kte7IkI/view","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Mike Turner","party":"R","pct":48},{"name":"Kristina Knickerbocker","party":"D","pct":41}]}],"poll_count":4,"money":{"total_raised":2330972,"outside_total":815,"source":"fec"},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_4w_usd":0,"state_lifetime_usd":177195800,"district_lifetime_usd":6225600,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":1669521,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":6939351,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Kristina Knickerbocker (D)":47,"Mike Turner (R)":44,"Thomas McMasters (L)":4},"m":3},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Kristina Knickerbocker (D)":47,"Mike Turner (R)":44,"Thomas McMasters (L)":4},"m":3}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/house-oh-10"}