{"cycle":2026,"election_day":"2026-11-03","as_of":"2026-11-04","generated_at":"2026-11-04T00:20:43.085Z","sources":{"polls":{"name":"PollResults.org (New York Times poll data)","url":"https://pollresults.org/","license":"CC BY 4.0","count":1579},"fec":{"name":"Federal Election Commission","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/","count":1317,"key":"env","errors":[]},"adspend":{"name":"FEC bulk independent expenditures via Corvus Intel","url":"https://corvusintel.app/api/ad-spend"}},"stale":{},"skeleton":false,"disclosure":"Deterministic data from named public feeds (PollResults.org/NYT poll data CC BY 4.0, FEC). No model-generated figures, no prediction-market prices. Not a forecast.","race":{"slug":"senate-ks","chamber":"senate","state":"KS","state_name":"Kansas","district":null,"special":false,"title":"Kansas Senate","held":"R","incumbent":{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R"},"open_seat":false,"battleground":true,"roster_source":"polls","candidates":[{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","incumbent":false,"poll_avg":50,"poll_n":8,"latest_pct":51.9,"fec":{"id":"S6KS00312","receipts":19175044,"disbursements":16300681,"cash":2874364,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S6KS00312/?cycle=2026","ie_support":6482,"ie_oppose":0}},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","incumbent":true,"poll_avg":45.7,"poll_n":8,"latest_pct":44.9,"fec":{"id":"S0KS00315","receipts":7546611,"disbursements":6946763,"cash":809806,"through":"2026-10-14","url":"https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0KS00315/?cycle=2026","ie_support":557853,"ie_oppose":6942494}}],"leader":{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":50,"lead":4.3},"money_leader":{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","receipts":19175044},"flip_risk":"R","rating":"Lean","competitiveness":0.785,"poll_avg":{"candidates":[{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":50,"polls":8},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":45.7,"polls":8}],"margin":4.3,"lead":4.3,"leader":{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":50},"n":8,"since":"2026-09-20","through":"2026-11-04","partisan":0,"method":"Unweighted mean of the latest general-election poll from each of 8 pollsters since 2026-09-20."},"polls":[{"id":"ee8d2d9a-9050-4dde-8ff3-225b1609c81e:17f5a5c0-ece7-4555-be7e-baf9dede3866","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"AtlasIntel","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-28","end":"2026-11-01","sample":2038,"population":"lv","url":"https://pollstergraph.com/poll/exclusive-atlas-us-ks-20261101-senate","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":44.9},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":51.9}]},{"id":"e5e20345-3b79-49b1-bd66-d5e7bfda599d:07291bee-5ea2-4d79-afff-618eeab48de9","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Survey 160","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-01","sample":1267,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":44},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":50}]},{"id":"e5e20345-3b79-49b1-bd66-d5e7bfda599d:04fe0986-64ed-4c26-a15d-64ce9696e864","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Survey 160","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-01","sample":1339,"population":"rv","url":"https://www.survey160.com/methodological-research-blog/survey-160-pre-election-surveys-in-four-states","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":43},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":50}]},{"id":"488d5c04-cc06-4cf9-a292-24dca14264b6:c3889839-1b75-41b1-9f15-6681453f8428","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"The New York Times/Siena University","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-27","end":"2026-11-01","sample":736,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/01/polls/times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":4.4},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":43.9},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":49}]},{"id":"d12ca396-9967-4c5a-b3af-5754f8a2ff05:e1b45bb5-0d9f-4215-bc23-0a30e5356d52","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-29","sample":2086,"population":"lv","url":"https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20261026_lv.pdf","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":49},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":50}]},{"id":"03a5f4fe-8984-49ba-b8ce-2044bab54108:83bd4e5f-7776-44ec-8285-e157b843da0a","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Emerson College","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-26","end":"2026-10-28","sample":800,"population":"lv","url":"https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":3.4},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":47.1},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":49.5}]},{"id":"57631c63-27a4-4cb7-adcb-99233e0056d8:6d29d6c5-c77b-44d3-8832-d70450a765e8","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-22","end":"2026-10-26","sample":801,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/10/30/oct-22-26-2026-washington-post-schar-school-kansas-poll/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":44},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":54}]},{"id":"57631c63-27a4-4cb7-adcb-99233e0056d8:dafb371e-1151-4a4b-8704-8529f8a5ac93","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-22","end":"2026-10-26","sample":801,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/10/30/oct-22-26-2026-washington-post-schar-school-kansas-poll/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":4},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":43},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":52}]},{"id":"cc6fe4a3-b999-4be6-9fd5-388faf9938b1:cb68d6dc-7057-485e-833b-30c3e5026cd3","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"CNN/SSRS","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-20","end":"2026-10-26","sample":838,"population":"lv","url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-michigan-maine-texas-kansas-senate-races-midterms-vis","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Neither","party":null,"pct":4},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":45},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":49}]},{"id":"25dc3468-add3-4d3e-969a-136fbc0cf6bd:7e295969-0c81-4996-9535-d3555a2e2fb5","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-13","end":"2026-10-14","sample":1200,"population":"lv","url":"https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":3.4},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":46.6},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":47.7}]},{"id":"5dde9606-4591-429b-9843-a121714b0a10:674ac6cf-b8e6-407a-a19c-354466ca3ccd","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"InsiderAdvantage","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-10-09","end":"2026-10-10","sample":1200,"population":"lv","url":"https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-u-s-senate-surveys-alaska-ranks-choice-peltola-50-sullivan-48-kansas-hamilton-48-marshall-47-michigan-el-sayed-48-rogers-46/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":3.4},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":46.7},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":47.5}]},{"id":"83a74e52-1bb7-4aa4-8d8c-6c58999faa29:a181753c-9a7d-4ca0-99a4-2d934fca03e1","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"GBAO","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-04","sample":600,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/sambbenson/status/2107792740259914148","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":7},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":41},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":46}]},{"id":"83a74e52-1bb7-4aa4-8d8c-6c58999faa29:a5624c69-c101-4fb6-951c-199b3a658c3e","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"GBAO","sponsor":"","partisan":"D","start":"2026-09-30","end":"2026-10-04","sample":600,"population":"lv","url":"https://x.com/sambbenson/status/2107792740259914148","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":44},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":49}]},{"id":"d25ef4d2-1ed1-441e-9934-82e258d3931e:8bde19c1-0c6a-406d-b961-f44c53d4a2da","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"YouGov","sponsor":"","partisan":null,"start":"2026-09-24","end":"2026-10-04","sample":2253,"population":"lv","url":"https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":45},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":48}]},{"id":"b53ee011-b0ec-4d53-b00c-4c9309bc24d6:889de9a4-3239-4fb6-b6bf-7a6004733535","office":"senate","state":"KS","district":null,"stage":"general","pollster":"Trafalgar Group","sponsor":"","partisan":"R","start":"2026-09-29","end":"2026-10-01","sample":1095,"population":"lv","url":"https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/ks-senate-general-1001/","hypothetical":false,"answers":[{"name":"David Graham","party":"L","pct":2},{"name":"Roger Marshall","party":"R","pct":43.5},{"name":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D","pct":44.4}]}],"poll_count":24,"money":{"total_raised":26721655,"outside_total":7506829,"source":"fec"},"ad_spend":{"google":{"candidate_matches":[{"advertiser":"Hamilton for Kansas","spend_4w_usd":1339800,"candidate":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D"},{"advertiser":"Hamilton for Kansas","spend_4w_usd":498900,"candidate":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D"},{"advertiser":"TEAM MARSHALL","spend_4w_usd":395500,"candidate":"Roger Marshall","party":"R"},{"advertiser":"KANSANS FOR MARSHALL","spend_4w_usd":264500,"candidate":"Roger Marshall","party":"R"}],"candidate_4w_usd":2498700,"state_lifetime_usd":28562200,"district_lifetime_usd":null,"week":"2026-10-25"},"snap":{"candidate_matches":[],"candidate_usd":0,"state_usd":598101,"district_usd":null,"year":2026},"meta":{"candidate_matches":[{"page":"Adam Hamilton for Kansas","disclaimer":"Hamilton for Kansas","spend_usd":143970,"ads":137,"candidate":"Adam Hamilton","party":"D"}],"candidate_usd":143970,"state_usd":1469839,"date_range":"Oct 25, 2026 - Oct 31, 2026"}}},"history":[{"d":"2026-11-03","a":{"Adam Hamilton (D)":50,"Roger Marshall (R)":45.7},"m":4.3},{"d":"2026-11-04","a":{"Adam Hamilton (D)":50,"Roger Marshall (R)":45.7},"m":4.3}],"page":"https://apprised.news/races/senate-ks"}