{
  "model": "margin-v1",
  "as_of": "2026-10-30T06:44:19.006Z",
  "source": "ESPN scoreboards",
  "thresholds": {
    "nfl": 3,
    "ncaaf": 5,
    "nba": 5
  },
  "threshold_selection": "Use the highest 2025 ATS ROI among thresholds 2, 3, 5, 7 with at least 50 picks, only when at least 100 eligible closing lines exist. Otherwise retain predeclared thresholds NFL 3, college football 5, NBA 5. Never tune on 2026. Straight-up fallback does not validate an ATS threshold.",
  "method": "Season-only mean scoring margin with four zero-margin prior games, each margin capped to 35 points. Fixed home advantage: NFL/NBA 2, college football 2.5; neutral sites zero. Total is the average of each team’s game total, shrunk with four league-prior games (44/52/222). At least three prior games per team. All games on the forecast ET date are excluded from training. Spread is home handicap. One unit risked at -110; wins return 10/11 unit. Pushes return stake and remain in ROI denominator. Closing-line value requires an explicitly provided closing spread. Missing historical prices never become wins or losses.",
  "limitations": [
    "Historical scoreboard odds may be absent; ATS/ROI stay null with n=0. Straight-up accuracy is separately labeled and does not imply betting profitability.",
    "Current provider records can be revised. No historical injuries, price timestamps, publication delays, transaction costs, or executable prices reconstructed.",
    "College football coverage is FBS (group 80), including FBS opponents. NBA study includes 2025-26 regular and postseason; preseason and all-star exhibitions are excluded.",
    "Forward picks are experimental paper observations and are never backfilled. No retrospective picks are entered in the public forward record."
  ],
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