Most newsletters tell you what happened. We also grade whether we were right.
Every Daily Intelligence Report ends with a Watch List — specific situations we say to monitor next, each now with a confidence we commit at publish. Every call is scored against the news that actually followed, re-graded three days later, and shown here — hits and misses alike. This is the thing a "just the facts, no opinion" newsletter can't show you: a falsifiable forecast record.
Calibration scorecard
How the grading works — and why you can trust the number.
Each Watch List call gets one of six verdicts: HIT, PARTIAL, MISS, COUNTER (evidence went the other way), PENDING (not yet resolved), or NULL-COVERAGE (the news corpus didn't cover the topic — un-scoreable, so it's excluded, never counted as a win or a loss). The headline number is a credit rate = (HIT + ½·PARTIAL) ÷ decided calls. We grade against the live news corpus, re-grade at +72 hours, and — the part most "we're accurate" claims skip — we commit each call's confidence at publish, before the outcome, so the per-confidence breakdown is a real calibration, not hindsight.Recent calls — including the ones we got wrong
Graded from the 2026-07-26 Intelligence Report · re-scored through 2026-07-27.
U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Opening and Strike Pause Durability
(stated MODERATE at publish)Trump publicly confirmed 'very deep talks' with Iran to Axios and stated he paused strikes to give diplomacy a chance, while CBS News and BBC reported the pause entering a third night with Oman-mediated Hormuz talks underway; oil prices dropped 8% on the news. All key watch_for triggers fired: Trump public statements, confirmed strike pause, and indirect diplomatic contact through Oman.
Berlin Pride Terror Attack — Suspect Capture and Political Fallout
(stated HIGH at publish)The suspect (identified as Abdul Ballout, 21) was shot and killed by police after a citywide manhunt, and Chancellor Merz publicly criticized terrorism laws and called for tighter monitoring, directly matching the watch_for triggers on suspect resolution and political response.
Houthi Red Sea Escalation — Saudi Oil Infrastructure
(stated MODERATE at publish)Houthis claimed drone strikes on Saudi east-west oil transport facilities including the Abqaiq complex; Saudi Arabia confirmed intercepting drones from Iraq targeting oil facilities; Reuters via Al-Monitor confirmed Aramco did not immediately comment on damage. Oil price movement (falling 8% on the pause) was tracked, and the Bab al-Mandeb leverage angle was extensively covered.
France-Spain Wildfire Containment — Madrid and Bordeaux Threat
(stated MODERATE at publish)Both fires remain active and uncontrolled as of July 27, with 330,000+ evacuated and Spain facing 'decisive' two days before a new heatwave; the EU deployed planes and firefighters confirming international assistance was requested. However, no containment declarations were issued and the watch_for trigger on Torrejón/ESA facility damage assessment was not covered.
North Korean Troop Deployment to Ukraine — 30,000 Additional Soldiers
(stated MODERATE at publish)NK News confirmed the 30,000 figure originated from Zelensky's weekend statement and analyzed feasibility, but no Western intelligence confirmation, South Korean/Japanese government statement, or U.S. policy response appeared in the corpus within the scoring window — the claim remains at the allegation stage without the independent corroboration the watch_for specified.