Most newsletters tell you what happened. We also grade whether we were right.
Every Daily Intelligence Report ends with a Watch List — specific situations we say to monitor next, each now with a confidence we commit at publish. Every call is scored against the news that actually followed, re-graded three days later, and shown here — hits and misses alike. This is the thing a "just the facts, no opinion" newsletter can't show you: a falsifiable forecast record.
Calibration scorecard
How the grading works — and why you can trust the number.
Each Watch List call gets one of six verdicts: HIT, PARTIAL, MISS, COUNTER (evidence went the other way), PENDING (not yet resolved), or NULL-COVERAGE (the news corpus didn't cover the topic — un-scoreable, so it's excluded, never counted as a win or a loss). The headline number is a credit rate = (HIT + ½·PARTIAL) ÷ decided calls. We grade against the live news corpus, re-grade at +72 hours, and — the part most "we're accurate" claims skip — we commit each call's confidence at publish, before the outcome, so the per-confidence breakdown is a real calibration, not hindsight.Recent calls — including the ones we got wrong
Graded from the 2026-09-09 Intelligence Report · re-scored through 2026-09-10.
Hormuz Closure / Full Shipping Blockade
(stated MODERATE at publish)Ship-tracking data confirmed Hormuz transits fell to 6-7 vessels (well below the 10-day average of 14), Iran declared and expanded a prohibition zone, and the IEA confirmed LNG supply disruption from the 'Strait of Hormuz blockage.' BBC Arabic also reported Iran expanding its exclusion zone near the strait.
Iran Missile Strike Escalation on Jordan / U.S. Regional Bases
(stated MODERATE at publish)Multiple outlets including CBS News and Air & Space Forces Magazine confirmed Iranian ballistic missiles hit a U.S. air base in Jordan, damaging A-10 and F-15 aircraft. CBS News cited U.S. sources directly confirming aircraft losses, meeting the watch-for trigger precisely.
Oil Price Breach of $100/barrel — Market and Political Consequences
(stated HIGH at publish)Both WTI and Brent crude clearly crossed $100/barrel; Infobae confirmed WTI surpassed $100, Spanish outlet reported Brent at $105, and the ECB raised rates citing oil-driven inflation. The Hungarian Conservative and CNBC also confirmed stocks retreating on oil crossing $100.
U.S.-Canada Trade War Legal/Economic Escalation
(stated MODERATE at publish)The corpus confirms ongoing U.S.-Canada trade war escalation with Trump imposing new tariffs and import bans while Canada levied retaliatory tariffs, and Canadian public sentiment mobilizing. However, no specific WTO/USMCA dispute panel filing, energy export restrictions, or congressional pushback from border-state Republicans was confirmed within the scoring window.
Iran's Captured U.S. Drone Intelligence Exploitation
(stated LOW at publish)Multiple defense outlets confirmed Iran captured the Dive-LD UUV and analysts assessed Iran would 'almost certainly' try to reverse-engineer it, but no Iranian state media footage of the drone's interior, no confirmed Chinese/Russian technical access, and no Pentagon OPSEC advisory was reported within the window.