Most newsletters tell you what happened. We also grade whether we were right.
Every Daily Intelligence Report ends with a Watch List — specific situations we say to monitor next, each now with a confidence we commit at publish. Every call is scored against the news that actually followed, re-graded three days later, and shown here — hits and misses alike. This is the thing a "just the facts, no opinion" newsletter can't show you: a falsifiable forecast record.
Calibration scorecard
How the grading works — and why you can trust the number.
Each Watch List call gets one of six verdicts: HIT, PARTIAL, MISS, COUNTER (evidence went the other way), PENDING (not yet resolved), or NULL-COVERAGE (the news corpus didn't cover the topic — un-scoreable, so it's excluded, never counted as a win or a loss). The headline number is a credit rate = (HIT + ½·PARTIAL) ÷ decided calls. We grade against the live news corpus, re-grade at +72 hours, and — the part most "we're accurate" claims skip — we commit each call's confidence at publish, before the outcome, so the per-confidence breakdown is a real calibration, not hindsight.Recent calls — including the ones we got wrong
Graded from the 2026-10-11 Intelligence Report · re-scored through 2026-10-12.
Iran Blockade Flashpoint — Additional Vessel Interdictions or Iranian Retaliation
(stated MODERATE at publish)The IRGC confirmed striking a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz on October 12, with TASS and The Hindu both reporting the attack, directly matching the 'additional vessel interdiction' trigger. Iran's deputy FM also publicly confirmed Iran is prepared for 'diplomacy and war' and Tehran rejected US peace concessions as inadequate.
Republican Congressional Defections on Russia Diesel Deal
(stated HIGH at publish)Republican Sen. Thom Tillis publicly called the deal potentially illegal on Sunday, bipartisan senators confirmed it conflicts with the 2022 ban, and Rep. Fitzpatrick's legislation to block Russian oil purchases was actively being pushed for a House vote — all matching the watch triggers for additional GOP defections and bipartisan Senate companion action. Trump publicly defended the deal, matching the predicted White House counter-response.
Pakistan Political Crisis — PTI Long March and KP Emergency
(stated MODERATE at publish)Governor's Rule and emergency were imposed in KP, KP Chief Minister Sohail Afridi and multiple PTI cabinet members were detained, the imposition was challenged in the Peshawar High Court, and Dawn reported the KP governor explicitly declaring that 'policies will come from Islamabad now.' All core watch triggers fired.
U.S. Military Intervention Against Houthis
(stated MODERATE at publish)The corpus shows Trump publicly wrestling with whether to join Saudi strikes (Today/NBC coverage of Riyadh airport being hit twice, questions about US joining), and Houthis explicitly threatening to target US forces if Trump intervenes — but no official White House or CENTCOM announcement of US strikes on Houthi targets was found. The situation is clearly escalating toward the threshold but has not crossed it.
Hurricane Simon Landfall Impact on U.S. Southwest / Energy Infrastructure
(stated HIGH at publish)NHC confirmed Simon made landfall near the Puerto Vallarta area overnight into October 12 and continued pounding Mexico's Pacific coast; the storm weakened to Category 3 but remained dangerous with damaging winds and flooding rains confirmed. However, no U.S. Southwest infrastructure damage or FEMA pre-positioning reports were found in the corpus, so the cross-border energy/infrastructure impact trigger did not clearly fire.