Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:21It is designed in such a way that both
00:00:25on the entry route and in parts of the
00:00:28exit route. Commercial ships will pass through
00:00:32Iran's territorial waters.
00:00:36Eyes are on the impending announcement of a pact between Iran
00:00:39and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, under the shadow of
00:00:43Trump's threats. Tehran says old routes will be
00:00:47closed and the new one will also be
00:00:50temporary. We ask two political analysts whether
00:00:53the upcoming agreement on the Strait of Hormuz can be
00:00:57considered a strategic victory for Iran or if this
00:01:00is just the beginning of a new phase of confrontation
00:01:13decrease in US arms reserves and
00:01:16Washington's denial. Has the shortage of missiles and
00:01:20missile defense systems changed Trump's strategy in the war with
00:01:24Iran?
00:01:25Speculation
00:01:34about the selection of the next Secretary-General of the United
00:01:37Nations. Four women and three men, including Rafael
00:01:41Grossi, are candidates to succeed
00:01:45Guterres. It must be determined which of them has
00:01:48a better chance of both getting the majority vote and not being
00:01:52opposed by any permanent
00:01:53members.
00:02:16Tehran and Muscat have reached an understanding on
00:02:20the geographical coordinates of the shipping lane in the Strait
00:02:23of Hormuz, and a joint statement will be released
00:02:27soon. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for
00:02:31the Foreign Ministry, however, has emphasized that this agreement
00:02:34does not mean the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He has
00:02:38called US actions one of the main obstacles. Kazem Gharibabadi,
00:02:41Deputy for International Affairs at the Ministry, also said the new
00:02:45agreement with Oman regarding the new shipping lane will increase
00:02:49passage through Iran's territorial waters. This is happening as US
00:02:53President Donald Trump has again threatened military
00:03:00he has gained the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz case
00:03:14ship that was attacked and sunk yesterday at
00:03:17the mouth of the Red Sea were those who had
00:03:20superficial injuries. All
00:03:2313 Indian and Yemeni
00:03:27crew members were rescued. Today,
00:03:30the Houthis also attacked a Saudi oil
00:03:34tanker. It was the eighth Saudi
00:03:37oil tanker to be targeted since the Houthi threat
00:03:41began two
00:03:42weeks ago.
00:03:45We condemn this attack. This ship was hit by a boat
00:03:48full of explosives at a point about 13 nautical miles
00:03:52southwest of Hodeidah. Attacking merchant ships in the Red
00:03:56Sea is an attack on Yemen and the people of Yemen. In the Strait,
00:04:01one or more ships were attacked and set on fire here
00:04:05off the coast of Oman. Satellite images show
00:04:09a large fire that may be related to a ship that was attacked
00:04:13here yesterday, a Liberian-flagged cargo ship. An attack
00:04:17in which one of the crew members was reported
00:04:20missing. The Strait
00:04:24is now at
00:04:25the center
00:04:29of trilateral talks between Iran, Oman,
00:04:33and the US. The Iranians contacted
00:04:36me and very politely requested a conversation,
00:04:40and I accepted. I said, let's bring this
00:04:44agreement to fruition. But what matters is action, not
00:04:46words. If they are not willing to agree, it will not
00:04:50be good for them. American sources told the
00:04:53Axios website that in the ongoing negotiations,
00:04:57it has been considered that ships will enter
00:05:01the Strait of Hormuz from Iran's coastal waters and exit
00:05:04from Oman's coastal waters. During the 30 days that these
00:05:08arrangements are supposed to be temporarily in effect,
00:05:11the mines in the middle part of the Strait will be cleared
00:05:15so that ships can then pass through the middle part.
00:05:18This has jeopardized the national security of the Islamic Republic
00:05:22of Iran. The Iranian side says talks with Oman have made good
00:05:25progress, provided that the US does not interfere. Right
00:05:29now, I can say the latest situation is that
00:05:32almost all
00:05:35the issues that were raised,
00:05:38including the map of transit routes, entry routes, and
00:05:42the maritime traffic itself,
00:05:45and those side understandings with Oman, because
00:05:49it's not just a map, these are almost
00:05:52fundamental understandings reached
00:05:55with Oman. The Iranian Foreign Minister,
00:05:59who went to Karbala yesterday for the Arba'een ceremony,
00:06:03is now scheduled to go to Pakistan on Friday to continue
00:06:07his mediation by exchanging messages between Iran
00:06:11and the US. Although the Foreign Ministry spokesperson
00:06:15now says there are no plans for this trip.
00:06:19The opening of the Strait of Hormuz is now under
00:06:22discussion in exchange for lifting the naval
00:06:25blockade of Iran, and probably a return to the
00:06:28Islamabad agreement.
00:06:37political analyst. Ms. Mohammadi believes that the US should
00:06:41not be trusted, and that Iran should seek lasting peace
00:06:45through victory, not through surrender. Alireza
00:06:48Namvar Haqiqi is also with us. Mr. Namvar Haqiqi believes
00:06:51that Iran should strengthen the existing memorandum of
00:06:55understanding with common interests and confidence-building measures,
00:06:58including ending hostilities with Israel. Ms. Mohammadi,
00:07:02let's start with you. Do you think that what has been
00:07:06announced so far (which hasn't been finalized yet)
00:07:10is a victory for Iran at this stage, or
00:07:13could it be the beginning of a new round of confrontation
00:07:16and bargaining? You see, the result
00:07:20of these negotiations that are leading to
00:07:23this understanding, these talks, is not yet clear,
00:08:12if we are to go by the official announcement, in my opinion,
00:08:16these negotiations are not between Iran and Oman
00:08:19due to a variety of reasons, due to a variety
00:08:22of reasons that define the relations of Iran and
00:08:26America and, on the other hand, the region, including
00:08:29Oman, with America. We are conducting negotiations
00:08:32under the supervision of America,
00:08:36and the Omani side is in contact with America at
00:08:39all times. Do you still give Iran the upper hand here?
00:08:43Yes, I give Iran the upper hand because America
00:08:46has resorted to various methods. Right now,
00:08:50the fact that Iran is talking to Oman,
00:08:53and you know that a couple
00:08:56of months ago, (I won't say exactly when), America was putting
00:09:00pressure on Oman to cut ties with Iran. The advantage
00:09:04Oman has is that its position, its
00:09:07political and strategic
00:09:10position, differs from
00:09:13other countries in the region, especially Iran.
00:09:16It has never succumbed to American threats. It hasn't
00:09:20cut ties. This doesn't mean that Oman is capable
00:09:23of exercising independent will from America
00:09:27in the region. It doesn't want to,
00:09:29and it doesn't have the
00:09:32ability. Therefore, to the extent that America
00:09:36is willing to compromise in the face of Iran and
00:09:40Iran's demands, and to the
00:09:43extent that America abandons its bullying, it can
00:09:46be said that America has retreated and Iran has
00:09:50achieved victories. Mr. Namvar, how do you see the
00:10:06the Islamic Republic, of course, successfully resisted
00:10:10the 40-day war, and
00:10:14the policy that Mr. Trump
00:10:16initially intended to achieve complete surrender
00:10:20or unconditional surrender was not successful. But that
00:10:23memorandum of understanding, in my opinion, that memorandum of
00:10:27understanding itself was a victory for Iran. But the important
00:10:30thing is for Iran to move towards its realization, not
00:10:34to take actions that will disrupt that memorandum of understanding.
00:10:37Why? Because the concessions and benefits
00:10:41that it gains from that memorandum will be canceled. You see, in the memorandum
00:10:45of understanding, you had oil sales exemptions
00:10:49that had legal, economic, and banking annexes.
00:10:52This didn't even happen in the JCPOA. It didn't happen,
00:10:55meaning that in the JCPOA, over a period of 10 years,
00:10:59the amount of Iran's oil sales gradually increased, and
00:11:03then it took seven or eight months due to banking issues. This
00:11:07has solved this in one go, which is very important. Well,
00:11:10the Islamic Republic didn't realize this, or those who
00:11:14have other interests, because there are factions in the Islamic
00:11:18Republic that don't want the issue to be resolved. The second
00:11:21point is that the requirements and consequences of this
00:11:25memorandum of understanding go towards two strategic
00:11:27issues that Iran's foreign
00:11:30policy has tried to act against. One of them
00:11:33is the issue of America and Israel. The requirement of
00:11:37this memorandum of understanding is that you must abandon hostilities
00:11:41with Israel. That's its first clause. And the second is
00:11:45the normalization of relations with Israel and America.
00:11:48Because you demanded the lifting of primary sanctions,
00:11:52bringing in $300 billion in business. Well, the Americans
00:11:55must be behind this. As far as
00:11:58I understand, you are saying that insisting on controlling
00:12:02the Strait of Hormuz
00:12:14end will reach the end. He who looks at the end must
00:12:17start at the beginning." You see, the strategic benefit
00:12:21of this memorandum is the lifting of primary sanctions. It is
00:12:25for Iran to be able to attract $300 billion in
00:12:28investment and to be able to enter a new
00:12:31era of peace for development. If the government
00:12:35wants to adopt any other strategy besides this,
00:12:39Iran will definitely enter a chronic period of endless
00:12:42wars and even widespread wars, which will jeopardize
00:12:45the integrity and future of the country. Therefore,
00:12:48this insistence on the Strait of Hormuz, which, if you
00:12:52pay attention, even the Chinese oppose, the Chinese
00:12:55did not support Iran. And the international community has
00:12:59a problem because during the war, they understood that yes, America
00:13:03attacked, and because of America's attack, they closed
00:13:06the Strait. But now, these actions are based
00:13:09on arguments that don't even have a basis in
00:13:13international law. That is, you cannot justify these
00:13:17actions in any game, and most importantly, from a political
00:13:30these current negotiations to be about the memorandum
00:13:34of understanding. As Mr.
00:13:36Haqiqi said, there were
00:13:40some good points in it, and in my interview with
00:13:44you, I think I said at the time that this
00:13:48memorandum of understanding had no validity.
00:13:50You saw that the clause was a sign
00:13:54of Iran's victory. Accepting this meant that America
00:13:58would sign that we would not interfere with Lebanon
00:14:02and Syria. This first clause was violated
00:14:05in the first hour, it was actually sensed. The tolerance of Iran in the face
00:14:09of the violation of that memorandum of understanding, which
00:14:13in my opinion had no basis, was to lower the price
00:14:16of oil a bit and to put Iran's actions to
00:14:20the test. Well, clause 5 of that memorandum
00:14:22was violated. After the first
00:14:26clause was violated by America's
00:14:29ally in the very first
00:14:32hour, clause 5 was also violated, and that memorandum
00:14:36of understanding, in my opinion, has no validity. And those
00:14:39who are pursuing it now do not mean that Iran is
00:14:43pursuing that memorandum of understanding. 300 million
00:14:46dollars, well, these are myths that we even
00:14:50say about American Trump, let alone America.
00:14:52The history of going back on words and promises,
00:14:56and Mr. Haqiqi talks about international laws
00:14:59and that this action of Iran has no legal validity.
00:15:03In a world where the ruler of its order is this
00:15:06American who goes and hits the president of a country
00:15:09and brings him, who assassinates the leader
00:15:12of a country and all its top officials,
00:15:16which is unprecedented in the history of international
00:15:20laws, and proudly says, "I did this,"
00:15:23talking about international laws and how others look
00:15:27at us, how the world looks at us,
00:15:42the United States and these negotiations
00:15:45about the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz,
00:15:48even though it hasn't been like that until now,
00:15:52today America's hostile behavior towards Iran
00:15:55has reached a point where the Strait of Hormuz
00:15:59is a weapon in Iran's hand, and it should not lose
00:16:03it. If the result of these negotiations is what is
00:16:06being said now, that it is temporary, like the memorandum
00:16:10of understanding, then we don't oppose it, and we shouldn't.
00:16:14I don't oppose any negotiations. I am pessimistic
00:16:17about the result, but I would never do this. Now
00:16:21that the world has come to this and international
00:16:25laws are invalid, I think you are probably against
00:16:29this view.
00:16:32Yes, Ms. Maliheh Mohammadi, you are
00:16:35like a swordsman with eyes.
00:16:39A swordsman strikes with his hand, and there is no
00:16:42outlook for exiting the crisis. You see, the main issue
00:16:46is that we must see what costs this
00:16:49created situation has for Iran. Iran is currently
00:16:53under a naval blockade. This blockade
00:16:57is causing huge economic damage to Iran. Iran's
00:17:00oil sales are facing challenges. Iran's pension
00:17:04funds are facing a crisis. Look at the oil pension
00:17:07fund now. This fund was the richest fund in Iran.
00:17:11Now it owes $19 billion to the development
00:17:14fund. And now the oil
00:17:18company is in debt, and its accounts have
00:17:21been blocked. This situation means you have 5 million
00:17:24unemployed due to the consequences of war, and
00:17:28this trend is increasing, meaning it's not even
00:17:31decreasing. So, continuing this economic
00:17:34blockade will lead to Iran's ruin. The second
00:17:38point that needs to be considered is the social
00:17:42crises resulting from this, meaning society is in a state
00:17:45of suspension. Will there be war or not? Because you
00:17:49cannot keep society in such a state, especially when
00:17:53society needs to have hope for the future, attract
00:17:57investment, and look forward. Well, the third
00:18:00point is society, which is young and wants to build
00:18:04its future. The third point that they don't pay attention
00:18:08to is that this memorandum of understanding is good.
00:18:11Well, you finally have to write a memorandum of understanding
00:18:14that ends these hostilities. This
00:18:18memorandum is good, it has ambiguities. The ambiguity
00:18:21of its first clause was that Israel did not sign
00:18:25it. It is not clear what should be done if something
00:18:29happens. We said at the time that ambiguities should
00:18:32be resolved. Its fifth clause also has ambiguities
00:18:36regarding the Persian Gulf and enrichment. The important
00:18:39thing is to resolve these ambiguities and to strengthen
00:18:43relations. One way that can build trust and reduce
00:18:47tensions is for Iran to bring up the issue
00:18:51of normalizing relations as a priority. The gentlemen
00:18:54who wrote this text say that in the end, they
00:18:58want to normalize relations, while in my opinion,
00:19:01they can give them the key to the embassy right now.
00:19:05These are confidence-building measures. The second point
00:19:09is about Israel. You see, if Iran wants to continue
00:19:12the strategy of destroying Israel, you know that we
00:19:16will be in this war forever. The way is to go behind
00:19:20the Arab peace plan, Saudi Arabia and other
00:19:23countries. The third point is that you must define
00:19:27common interests that encourage people towards peace, not
00:19:31war. The fourth point that Ms. Mohammadi does
00:19:34not pay attention to is that, yes, America violates
00:19:37the law and acts against international laws. But
00:19:41now, your solution is force. You want to change the rules
00:19:44of the game by force. Well, in the game of
00:19:47force, you will not lose. Look at the experience of
00:19:51small powers or medium
00:20:25point is that resistance is in defense and that
00:20:28society accepts that your solution is the right
00:20:31solution. The majority of society is looking for
00:20:35understanding and negotiation. They do not believe that
00:20:38they should always be at war with America. Very
00:20:42briefly, Ms. Mohammadi, please, I need to give
00:20:44both of you time again. Ms. Mohammadi, quickly,
00:20:48please. I don't know what to do with
00:20:52these statements that Mr. Haqiqi makes and constantly accuses
00:20:55the other side of not paying attention. This country is being
00:20:59violated because force is bad, but
00:21:01for a smaller country, surrendering is good. Let
00:21:05them surrender. What will happen to Iran after
00:21:09surrendering? Others have done
00:21:12this. They surrendered, gave up their weapons.
00:21:15The Iranian people have experienced all of this.
00:21:17And the fact that Mr. Haqiqi
00:21:50so decisively speaks for the majority of the
00:21:53Iranian people, thinking he knows what the majority
00:21:57thinks, is really a question, because
00:22:00in our society we have an active majority,
00:22:04meaning we have active, passive, indifferent,
00:22:07opposing, and supporting groups. The group that
00:22:11is currently present in the political and social arena
00:22:14of Iran, Mr. Haqiqi.
00:22:18This memorandum of understanding
00:22:39is not Iran's surrender. Iran's primary sanctions are
00:22:43being lifted. This is the first time since the
00:22:47revolution that the issue of lifting Iran's primary
00:23:20sanctions has been included
00:23:29the same things about enrichment. You see,
00:23:31we told them about enrichment back when Dr. Milani
00:23:35wrote an article saying to give up enrichment,
00:23:39lift primary sanctions,
00:24:02I am going to have to cut you off there.
00:24:05Thank you very much to both of you for joining us.
00:24:09These disagreements exist and we hope that we can
00:24:13talk more about these issues in future opportunities.
00:24:16Maliheh Mohammadi and Alireza Namvar Haqiqi, both analysts
00:24:20of Iranian political affairs. New reports from
00:24:23American media and research centers indicate a significant
00:24:27decrease in the reserves of some of America's most
00:24:31important missiles during the
00:24:39portion of its long-range and precision missile reserves.
00:24:42The Center for Strategic and International Studies also
00:24:46estimated that US missile defense system reserves
00:24:50have severely decreased. But exactly which missiles
00:24:54has the US used, and can this issue affect Washington's
00:24:57military capability in future crises? Baran Abbasi
00:25:01has gone to find answers to these questions. Are
00:25:04US missile reserves running out? An exclusive
00:25:07Reuters report says the US military has used
00:25:11a significant portion of its reserves of some
00:25:14types of long-range and precision missiles
00:25:18during the war with Iran. This is the moment
00:25:21of firing a short-range surface-to-surface missile
00:25:24known as ATACMS, the US Army's tactical missile.
00:25:28Three informed sources on US arms reserves said
00:25:32that almost all of these missiles were used during
00:25:35the war in Iran. The US Army is phasing
00:25:39out ATACMS missiles and gradually replacing them
00:25:41with newer missiles called PrSM, which can be
00:25:45seen being launched here. According to Reuters,
00:25:48the reserves of this missile have been limited from
00:25:52the beginning due to its
00:25:53newness, and a significant
00:25:56portion of it has been used. These missiles are
00:25:59used for precise attacks on targets at very
00:26:03long distances, and the price of each is
00:26:07more than one million dollars.
00:26:09The reason for the depletion of these reserves, according
00:26:12to American sources, is that Donald Trump preferred
00:26:16to use these missiles instead of high-risk
00:26:20options like sending manned bombers into Iranian
00:26:23airspace. But the issue is not
00:26:27just surface-to-surface missiles. According to
00:26:31one Reuters source,
00:26:35the US has used about half of its Tomahawk
00:26:38cruise missile reserves since the start of the
00:26:41war. Tomahawk is a naval weapon and is usually
00:26:45launched from vessels. It is one of America's
00:26:49most important tools for attacking distant and highly
00:26:52protected targets. However, the main concern may be
00:26:56related to defense systems. Last week, the Center
00:27:00for Strategic and International Studies estimated that
00:27:03about two-thirds of America's Patriot missile defense
00:27:07systems have also been used since the start of
00:27:10the war in March until August 5th. Also,
00:27:14the number of THAAD missile system missiles has decreased
00:27:17by 40 to 50 percent compared to the start of
00:27:21the war. Patriot and THAAD are used to identify
00:27:24and destroy incoming projectiles such as
00:27:28ballistic missiles and are among America's most important defense systems.
00:27:34However, Washington denies
00:27:36reports about its arms
00:27:39reserves. The White House, quoting Donald Trump in a statement,
00:27:42said: "We have more weapons
00:27:46than anyone else in the world and far more than
00:27:50we need. Our defense industry companies are currently
00:27:53producing more ammunition than ever before, and
00:27:57in addition, they are expanding their factories and equipment
00:28:01at an unprecedented rate." However, American media
00:28:04say that warnings from Donald Trump's military
00:28:08advisors about the state of US arms reserves
00:28:11caused him to decide to stop attacks against
00:28:14Iran. Although he himself said
00:28:18he wants But if reports about
00:28:22the depletion of arms reserves are true, it
00:28:26means that the US no longer has the
00:28:29ability to continue the war. Not
00:28:33necessarily. As Donald Trump said, the US
00:28:36can produce these missiles again. Also,
00:28:40the Reuters report says the US military has
00:28:44collected part of its needed weapons from reserves
00:28:47it had in various parts of the world.
00:28:51But analysts warn that the ability to replace
00:28:55these weapons may not be as fast as
00:28:59their consumption in a major war. Therefore,
00:29:03if the US gets involved in an all-out
00:29:07war with Iran again, the depletion of these
00:29:16riskier operations involving Analysis at the Hudson Institute, how
00:29:20serious the issue of America's ammunition shortage
00:29:22is.
00:29:26The main problem and challenge is not the current war
00:29:30can lead to bomb deployment. The main
00:29:38challenge
00:29:41is intercepting ballistic missiles fired from Iran towards
00:29:45Israel or the Persian Gulf countries.
00:29:48Israel has its own defense systems, but
00:29:52the Gulf countries specifically rely on US defense
00:29:55systems. The situation becomes more dangerous when
00:29:59the US enters a war with Russia or China, because
00:30:03at that point, the need for ammunition will be incredibly
00:30:06higher and much more than the current stock
00:30:09of the most advanced American weapons.
00:30:13Well, if these reports are confirmed, of course,
00:30:17the American side says there is no such
00:30:20shortage, but if it is even partially true,
00:30:24then it can be predicted
00:30:26that, for example, the US government and the US army
00:30:30will be forced to change their strategy. in this war.
00:30:34That is, in a way,
00:30:38in order to carry out its operations,
00:30:41it will be forced to use
00:30:44perhaps more risky methods?
00:30:46بکنه؟
00:30:51Again, if the current conflict with Iran is not
00:30:55a significant threat to American forces.