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00:00:35well hello welcome to business incorporated live on channels
00:00:38television, here's what's coming
00:00:40up and
00:00:44we see uh coming up today uh the all prices uh little
00:00:48changed there but we see congo is banning exports and uh
00:00:51kenya uh the brewer there
00:00:53is posted growth for the financial
00:00:56year
00:01:02and gold prices are rising on hopes that there's deescalation at
00:01:05this
00:01:06time.
00:01:11that's good to have you join us. let's kick off now what's playing out with major commodities that we track
00:01:15now and that's starting with all prices there was we did see um all
00:01:19prices lower but uh for the wednesday trade coming into the Thursday
00:01:23trade now we're seeing uh some pull up therefore uh
00:01:27Brent
00:01:27Crude and WTI um the 0.8 8%, maybe it's uh,
00:01:31maybe is it dead cat bounce they call this one at this
00:01:35point, but we're still watching
00:01:36out what's happening around the straight
00:01:38of hormores and when it comes to deescalation
00:01:40uh between
00:01:40uh US and Iran, but that's the picture um right there, but we see natural
00:01:44gas there on the flip side down 0.74 percent. Let's get a check on
00:01:48metals now, let's see what's happening um there now so we see uh for spot
00:01:52gold that's uh still hovering around the new highs there
00:01:56$4,328 um dollars per ounce so this
00:02:00um
00:02:01you know some the kind of rise you'd say you've not seen in a couple
00:02:05of weeks now spot silver 0.41% um lower
00:02:08though on the flip side going in the opposite direction with other metals that
00:02:12we track now we see
00:02:13of coper there 1.28% um higher
00:02:17$6.81 per pound palladium 1.31 higher
00:02:20of and uh platinum so it's starting off green uh for
00:02:24august here um that's for the mental markets
00:02:27of that we track at this point all right let's um discuss further
00:02:30now because these markets are sending mixed
00:02:34signals at this point, all prices, they they were under pressure at some point
00:02:38now, but we're still seeing, we're seeing some green optics
00:02:41there, uh, hopes around the reopening
00:02:43of the street
00:02:44of Ramus, that's easing, um, fears over global supply disruptions, at
00:02:48the same time, gold has rallied to seven week high supported
00:02:51by a weaker US dollar and lower treasury yields as investors,
00:02:55they're reassessing the outlook for interest rates and
00:02:59geopolitical... with central bank decisions, economic
00:03:02data and
00:03:03of geopolitical development, they're all in focus um right now, so the key
00:03:07question,
00:03:08of what's driving sentiment across energy and metals market and what should
00:03:12investors expect, um, are you supposed to go
00:03:15- long or short, that's talking about traders at this point, joining me
00:03:19now, daniela
00:03:20in corsini, senior economist, commodities market in Tessa San
00:03:24Paulo, great to have you in the
00:03:26show.
00:03:32Can you hear
00:03:32a
00:03:33of me? All right, Daniel, so you
00:03:36know, we see, we did see you, all prices, kicking
00:03:40off the week, um, lower, but you know, coming in from the Wednesday to
00:03:44Thursday trade, we're seeing some kind of rebound um, at this time, do
00:03:48you think the market is now pricing out geopolitical risk
00:03:51or is this simply a temporary um,
00:03:55correction that we see started
00:03:56off? Am I opinion
00:04:00is true, investors have significantly
00:04:03decreased their exposure to crude oil because
00:04:06of the drop in geopolitical risk, this is because
00:04:10flows are the most important point for markets,
00:04:14the most important point in my opinion is not whether
00:04:18peace agreement will be reached or if nuclear talks will
00:04:21restart, but simply flows though hormos will be
00:04:25enough to satisfy global market, global
00:04:28crudal market. so in my opinion it's likely that
00:04:32the announcement of Iran this morning will proceed,
00:04:36we know Iran and Oman are discussing to reach
00:04:40of deal, to manage the flows through the straight,
00:04:44and I
00:04:45of think probably
00:04:46in the US at the end will accept such solution, because on one
00:04:50hand, in my opinion, the US want to maintain
00:04:53low interest rates, they need to control
00:04:56inflation and oil price to avoid hiking. interest
00:05:00race ahead
00:05:01of the mid-term in November. On the other hand, we have
00:05:05Iran which needs to restore oil revenues and
00:05:09they also need to have
00:05:11in inbound flows of any kind of good to satisfy the
00:05:14population and then we have also the gulf states
00:05:18which have plated their anti missile
00:05:21defense system and now they they see as a welcome
00:05:25a
00:05:27truth in order to at least replenish their defense
00:05:30stocks so in my opinion it's likely that flow will
00:05:34increase and so in my opinion it's fully justified this
00:05:38correction in crude price
00:05:40so so where do you see? trading, say by the
00:05:44end
00:05:45of August and you know we still keeping our eyes on the state of
00:05:48Romase, US and Iran at this point, but it seems that what's
00:05:51still driving sentiment going on?
00:05:55yeah, you are completely right, I think given I
00:05:59expect the escalation of tension, I think Crude
00:06:03price will trade around the 70-75 per
00:06:06barrel by late august, and then it will stabilize near
00:06:10$70 by year and
00:06:12your in uh obviously depends from geopolitical tension, so
00:06:16if military escalation restart then we can see even higher prices
00:06:20around $85,90 per barrel.
00:06:24all right, we definitely keep our eyes on that, but let's flip over to the metals market
00:06:27now, we seeing gold climbing to seven week high you know
00:06:31despite you know easing geopolitical um
00:06:34tension at this point, you mind
00:06:37know did you see this coming for
00:06:38gold? think in my opinion. that
00:06:42good market is not really following now geopolitical risks, in my opinion
00:06:46it is more following the US dollar and in particular the US
00:06:50monetary policy, in particular there is a strong link in my
00:06:54opinion between high energy prices, the risk
00:06:58of higher interest rates in the US and and this is
00:07:02negative for the gold because the gold is suffering where interest rate
00:07:05increase we saw last week we had a 30-year treasury
00:07:09nose which reached the highest level in... years,
00:07:13so this is very negative for gold, and that's why every time we have
00:07:17deescalation in the middle east, we have lower geopolitical
00:07:21risk, we have a positive reaction of
00:07:25gold because of lower expected inflation and less
00:07:28concern about higher interest rates in US. i think this is a big
00:07:32change from the past, in the past, gold being a safe heaven
00:07:36was rising with geopolitical tension, and now i think it's no more the case
00:07:40because the us monetary policy... is the most important driver in my opinion
00:07:44for gold uh, should investors expect
00:07:48industrial metals like copper, and silver to follow gold
00:07:52higher, because
00:07:52you know looking at the prices today, we're seeing gold rising, but you know
00:07:56silver
00:07:57is is dropping, seems have different fundamentals
00:07:59here, yeah, you're right, silver
00:08:03is not benefiting from this uh upward drive
00:08:07in gold because of weaker fundamentals,
00:08:11first silver is... is not gaining from central bank demand,
00:08:15because central banks only buy gold, they are not buying silver, and on the
00:08:19second hand, we also had negative news from the industry, because
00:08:22because solar power producer, so
00:08:26producer solar panel are decreasing their weight of
00:08:30silver per each panel, and this is a very negative news,
00:08:34because obviously they will need a lower and lower silver going forward and this is
00:08:38negatively impacting its long-term fundamentals, that's why i see
00:08:42silver flat, while I think gold is more upsider if tension
00:08:45is in the middle east, so if you are positioning a portfolio
00:08:49today, would you favor energy, you precious
00:08:53metals or more of industrial metals at this
00:08:56point? well, at the moment my favorite one is
00:09:00copper, in the very near term up to the mid-term election in
00:09:04the US, i think copper has room to reach new old
00:09:08time high around 15, 15,5
00:09:13uh second position for gold, think in the shorter extension
00:09:17is gold could arise some more, but then i see it
00:09:21falling back near 4000 dollar per ounce by year
00:09:25end and then i'm negative on crude oil because of ising
00:09:29tension in the middle east. all right, thank you so
00:09:32much, definitely we'll keep tracking these metals and keep going up and down
00:09:36in at this point, thank you so much daniela corsini, senior
00:09:39economist, commodities market in tesla. and
00:09:42paolo, thank you, thank you very much, thank
00:09:46you. all right, let's get to check on other stories, now we see the
00:09:49democratic republic of Congo, they've taken a major step to boost value
00:09:53addition in its uh mining industry, banning exports of copper
00:09:57and coballed um concentrates with immediate effect, the move is aimed at
00:10:01encouraging domestic processing, um, increasing government revenue and
00:10:04capturing more value uh from the country's vast mineral wealth, as
00:10:08the world's largest producer of cobal, the and Africa's second um
00:10:12second largest supply of copper, the decision could have significant
00:10:16implications for global supply chains, mining companies
00:10:19and the electric vehicle market
00:10:23and we see South Africa's uh uh pick and pay the
00:10:27boosted by boxers, the group turnover rises about
00:10:292.7%. they're showing early signs that the turnaround
00:10:33strategy is getting traction, the group reported a 2.7% increase in
00:10:37turnover for the first 20 weeks of its financial year
00:10:41driving by continued strong growth in its discount
00:10:45chain uh boxer which helped offset ongoing weakness and its course
00:10:49supermarket business and the update highlights how you know value focus
00:10:53retail continues to resonate with consumers under economic pressure
00:10:57as a company works to restore profitability and strengthen its
00:11:00position in South Africa's um highly competitive
00:11:04market and we see
00:11:08Kenya's um East Africa breweries they've delivered a strong set of
00:11:11four-year results uh with pre-tax um profit uh we see
00:11:15that rose about 43% on the back of higher sales across its east
00:11:19um Africa markets there um the brewer you
00:11:23know best known um best know for
00:11:26you know brands like um including Tosca Guinness in the region also
00:11:30reported a 13% increase in revenue reflecting resilient
00:11:33consumer demand uh despite a challenging economic environment the
00:11:37results come as majority shareholder Diasio progresses with
00:11:41plans to sell its controlling stake in the company marking a significant
00:11:45moment uh
00:11:45for one of East Africa's largestuh consumer goods
00:11:49businesses all right let's check on other commodities
00:11:53now domestic commodities see tomato. prices in Nigeria, they've
00:11:56tripled this year with the cost of a large basket rising from
00:12:0040,000 in January to 100k
00:12:04in July, the surge is raising concerns over food
00:12:07inflation and supply constraints, despite Nigeria remaining
00:12:11one of Africa's largest tomato producers. Uh let's talk to
00:12:14Olisa, um, Olisa SN1 now is an analyst with
00:12:18Financials company uh, great to have you the show, so what are the key
00:12:22factors
00:12:23uh behind the 200%? increase in tomato
00:12:26prices this year, are these pressures likely to persist
00:12:30uh through the rest of
00:12:312026? good
00:12:34afternoon, thank you for having me, as well, as yourly said,
00:12:38yes we have experienced a 200% search in the prices of basket of
00:12:42tomatoes from 40, in january to 120,000
00:12:45these, and this is due to numerous amount of factors, to start
00:12:49off with, the excess rainfall been experiencing this
00:12:53couple this couple of months has not only destroyed or
00:12:57damaged major roots leading to these farms and then
00:13:01the market, but has created has increased the
00:13:04humidity in the farmlands bring about more
00:13:08fungal and bacteria that has damaged those
00:13:11crops. At the same time, increased for
00:13:14prices has increased the transportation
00:13:17cost to deliver these goods to the markets
00:13:21and that to curve that loss we
00:13:23are seeing the increase. in brutal prices, these
00:13:27are just some the factors that have contributed to
00:13:31this surge in prices, which is why we're
00:13:34seeing um small for tomatos
00:13:37being about 500 near in the market. with
00:13:41that being said, tomatos being a seasonal commodity,
00:13:45do expect the prices ease up
00:13:49is as we are now in of course the main harvest
00:13:52season, so we are expecting an abundant. supply,
00:13:56however, looking further down the line, as we approach
00:13:59festive seasons, we expect the prices
00:14:03to increase, as demand for tomatoes will increase,
00:14:07which explains the outlook, all right, I do hope you know, if
00:14:11we check the households, I hope the stews are not getting smaller,
00:14:14because of this, but we know Nigeria produces nearly 3.9 million
00:14:18metric tons of tomatoes annually, yet we still import over
00:14:22400 million dollars worth of process. the tomato
00:14:25products, what reforms are needed here to strengthen the
00:14:29country's you know tomato value chain and reduce the import
00:14:33dependence there?
00:14:36well, to start off with, although we produce
00:14:402.9 million metric tons, 40 to 50% of
00:14:43that doesn't make it
00:14:45to the market and is lost due to post service losses, and those are
00:14:48attributed to factors such as inadequate storage facilities
00:14:52as well as
00:14:54um coaching. facilities and it's important to know that we
00:14:57lack um a processing facilities
00:15:01that to convert this produce into
00:15:04um products such as
00:15:08ketchup and tomato paste so a scenario we have
00:15:11p carvs we don't have the facilities to convert that and tomatos
00:15:15being per nature they of course
00:15:19dimin they diminish fast so some policies to
00:15:23take place is increasing the amount of processing
00:15:27hobs in major tomato producing states such as
00:15:30can,
00:15:31cardina, cartina, i believe that if we increase that, increase the possessing
00:15:35her available, we be able to up absorb the the excess supply
00:15:39and reduce wastage and as stated in my earlier
00:15:43point, if we improve if invest in better roads
00:15:47of course the time taken to distribute these goods to
00:15:50the final consumers reduce so i think this are just a
00:15:54couple of factors that would you know
00:15:57would improve the the
00:16:01will improve um yeah it's because it's quite it's
00:16:05quite interesting these are the same problem since I was in secondary school, the
00:16:09same problems of acriculture, you don't till now, I hope we change that
00:16:13soon, thank you so much, I will analyt a financial
00:16:17derivatives company, thank you, thank you for having
00:16:20me, all right, now let's flip over to other
00:16:23parts now, the market, you see the ngx um lower and
00:16:27today, few banks were up today when I did i get peak, but for the
00:16:31ICT sector, this see legend internet there, um, that
00:16:35was up, then uh, coming to the JSC that's looking better there
00:16:380.24% um higher and definitely we're seeing um
00:16:42gold metal prices um rising and that's you know helping pop up this
00:16:46uh one there i flip over to other parts of uh the continent there we see the
00:16:49egx30 0.35% um higher but the nairobi
00:16:53stock exchange uh pulling back again uh for the trade yesterday
00:16:571.2 1.62% lower let's get a check now
00:17:01on golf on the golf region we see for the uae is a big drops we're
00:17:05seeing there the dubai index 1.3 2% um lower Abu
00:17:09Dhabi index seven basis point flip over to Saudi Arabia it's
00:17:13all red 0.11 0.64 we're still trying
00:17:16to invest is there trying to understand what's happening around um the
00:17:20war in Iran and the straight of Rmus at this point to sentiment is
00:17:24still um lower let's flip over to US futures now uh we see the
00:17:28futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial average tech heavy Nasdaq
00:17:32looking good 29,481 points for the
00:17:35Nasdaq SNP 0. 15% better so
00:17:39corporate earnings i'm still rolling in at this point and that's driving sentiment
00:17:43right there for us markets let's flip over to asian markets
00:17:47now - much lower today uh technology
00:17:50stocks were um leading a broad regional sell off there with
00:17:54japan sneak um there it's down 0.9%
00:17:57cosp 4.58% um lower hangsing index so
00:18:01it's like you know today we're seeing um green on the screen next
00:18:05day it's uh red there um investors watching
00:18:09you know uh chipmakers samsung sk hynix right there let's
00:18:12flip over to other parts now - we see for the nifty 50 though it's about five
00:18:16basis points um higher
00:18:1824,636 uh points and the shaga
00:18:21composite up 0.57% to close let's see if it's
00:18:25the same picture in Europe now we have las halter um there
00:18:29hello las how's it looking yeah ladi good to be with you
00:18:33it is looking pretty good same color here mostly green across the board actually
00:18:37the European market now
00:18:39how record breaking DAX here in Frankfurt is really up only
00:18:43slightly, it's not having too much strength top these recent
00:18:46record highs, but markets in London up half a percent, paris and
00:18:50Madrid look even stronger, each up a more than one%
00:18:54uh, but what's driving it is really just mostly the old price drop
00:18:58a bit again because that's obviously been the most dominant driver for markets
00:19:02over the past few months already. All right, so we see elections that coming up
00:19:06in Germany or... please the regional elections, that's coming
00:19:10up in one the former um East German states uh recent
00:19:13polls point to majority for a party that has so
00:19:17far never been in government, what can you tell us about
00:19:20this? yeah, indeed loud, the poles point to a plurality for
00:19:24the alternativa for Germany, an extreme right-wing party, better
00:19:28known by its acronym the AFD, the party is
00:19:31formally classified as a right-wing extremist organization by
00:19:35Germany's domestic intelligence. agency uh, but
00:19:39you know, we're living economically dire times, Germany is seeing
00:19:42influx of migrants and all that has always been an excellent context,
00:19:46populist parties could could abuse by uh promising
00:19:50quick solutions to people's problems, problems that more
00:19:54honest and traditional parties can often not really solve, as
00:19:58obviously there are really easy solutions to complex
00:20:01issues, but anyway the AFD has had growing success
00:20:05in the eastern German states over the... past years and even though
00:20:09they've gained seats in many state parliaments, they really never
00:20:13governed anywhere, not least because other parties have so far
00:20:16refused to work or enter a coalition with
00:20:19them, but but now that the party might win
00:20:23majority in this one particular state, what would it mean for the
00:20:26country and the economy? yeah, ladi, if the AFD
00:20:30would end up in government, it could be costly because apparently the
00:20:34numbers don't work out for the party's populist platform. form
00:20:38that's according to economists over the lighten institute in which is
00:20:41actually situated in that particular state, the economiss
00:20:45estimate annual funding gap a minimum of
00:20:492.2 b million euros and they say it's mostly due
00:20:52to some popular election giveaways, among the biggest items
00:20:56are state funded to child benefit payment, free child care for
00:21:00all, free school lunch programs and a higher allowance for
00:21:04home-based care. now that's all of course
00:21:07worthwhile goals, but they do come a cost of
00:21:11over one and a half billion euros and the AFD says they won't
00:21:15take on new debt and they also will lower taxes
00:21:19and all that. taken together of course doesn't work, buse
00:21:22the money has to come from somewhere before it can be
00:21:26spent, so taking this up to federal level, what would an
00:21:30AFD victory mean? well, it would
00:21:34come with tremendous uh problems for the economy for sure, not least, because
00:21:38one of our currently biggest economic issues is lack
00:21:41of skilled labor a time when demographic trends are
00:21:45setting Germany up to already lose people in the labor market. now
00:21:49economist. have long said that only skilled migration
00:21:53can really help alleviate the problem with skilled workers coming
00:21:57in from eastern European from Asian countries from India from
00:22:00Africa and elsewhere. However, the right-wing AFD
00:22:04is an anti-immigrant party. Many of its followers are
00:22:08actually known to have attacked immigrants, and the more power
00:22:12such a party has, the less attractive Germany becomes as a
00:22:15destination for a skilled workers. As matter of fact, many
00:22:19immigrants. that come to Germany already move to other European
00:22:23countries after year or two, and that's not good. We need to
00:22:27keep people here, integrate them into society and the labor
00:22:31market and actually make life attractive for them, and
00:22:34obviously a strong right-wing party is not helping. All right, thank you so
00:22:38much. Last, definitely a developing story, we keep tracking down,
00:22:42politics impacts everything, thank you. Absolutely, yeah, thank you,
00:22:45lady. All right, let's get a check on what's happening in the digital asset space
00:22:49now, definitely. see bitcoin there and the green just about eight business point
00:22:52higher um at this hour 64,540
00:22:56ethereum still trying to make that run up to $200,
00:22:59$1,904 up $1.31%, but
00:23:03majority the uh the the old coins there mostly in
00:23:07the red um right there uh at this hour
00:23:10but we see some stable coins um getting some attention so some you know
00:23:14investors there trying to get some clarity in the market - to some the headlines European
00:23:18regulators are warning uh crypto investment is to be on guard as
00:23:21scammers exploit the European Union's new micro rules,
00:23:25frosters opposing as licensed firms and regulators to trick
00:23:29users into transferring their digital assets. Authorities are
00:23:32urging investors to verify every request before
00:23:36making um any transactions. Yeah, we see the scammers there
00:23:40out in full force everywhere at this point. Uh, Wall Streets, there
00:23:43accelerating adoption of blockchain technology with major
00:23:47banks and asset managers expand. toconization
00:23:51projects are the firms are using blockchain to improve the trading and settlement
00:23:55of financial assets, signaling growing institutional confidence in
00:23:59digital um finance, then uh master card, they're expanding the
00:24:03digital payments business with the acquisition of crypto infrastructure
00:24:06firm uh BVNK, the move you strengthens its
00:24:10stable coin capabilities and supports faster cross border payments
00:24:14as global financial institutions uh continue to embrace blockchain
00:24:18empowered uh payment. uh solutions at this point, so those are the
00:24:21headlines right there and cryptomarket and that's how major markets are
00:24:25looking today, tgif trade tomorrow, we'll see what comes, i'm lady
00:24:29williams from
00:24:30the team right here at channel's hqs, bye for
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00:25:25Hello and a warm welcome to Art House, I'm Melinda Killami, coming
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00:30:12Hello again and thank you for staying with us here on Channels TV. This is
00:30:16news track. We are live from our studios here in Lagos. I am Kellya a
00:30:20Giga and
00:30:23from our studios here in Abuda the federal capital. I'm Gloria
00:30:26Um. Our president has directed the economic and
00:30:30financial crimes commission EFC. to immediately return to
00:30:34court and vecate the order freezing the oshin state government's
00:30:37account. the statement, president Bolatinov said he was not
00:30:41embarrassed by the EFCC's anti-corruption mandate or the
00:30:45court order itself, but by the timing the action coming
00:30:49just days before the Ashhum governorship election. President
00:30:52Tinubur reiterated his commitments to allowing anti-corruption agencies to
00:30:56operate independently without political interference.