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00:01:56Stralla's world. Good evening.
00:02:11On Tuesday on television, the cyberattack has brought a lot
00:02:14of extra work for officials. How to get the situation under control,
00:02:18what kind of research is being done in applied universities, and why should
00:02:21high school students learn drone flying? We will also introduce
00:02:25Camel Kalle, a bride from Poland. See you at
00:02:286:45.
00:10:59In a moment, "Välisilm" begins, followed by the second part of the
00:11:03documentary "A Week Seen" about the cooperation between German and French
00:11:06leaders in the name of a safer
00:11:09Europe.
00:11:49Battalion was arrested in Russia on charges of intending to go
00:11:52and fight in Ukraine, and to top it off.
00:12:45wants to arrest Vladimir Putin, as you may remember. Donald Trump,
00:12:49however, wants to do business with him, and therefore, it is quite logical
00:12:52that last week Washington imposed sanctions on the Criminal
00:12:56Court and allowed Russian
00:13:04a diesel deal with Vladimir
00:13:16in Kyiv, where the mayor advises residents to temporarily leave the city.
00:13:20At the same time, exhausting battles are underway at the front
00:13:23for the last cities of Donbass.
00:13:27In Germany, a former head of foreign intelligence was arrested, suspected of
00:13:31treason. Eppend investigates how much damage he caused.
00:13:34Eppend.
00:13:37And in France, a student protest from a Parisian
00:13:40suburb has spread throughout the country. Astrid
00:13:44Kannel reports why
00:13:46young people took to the streets.
00:13:49So, on Friday, Donald Trump wrote on social media that he had
00:13:53successful talks with Vladimir Putin, and Russia will bring
00:13:57millions of tons of diesel to the market. Prices,
00:14:00he said, will fall to a record low and quickly.
00:14:03On Sunday, Trump added to this that an energy ceasefire
00:14:07between Ukraine and Russia would begin immediately.
00:14:11Only, Voladymer Zelensky heard about it only
00:14:14from the news, and a few hours later, Russia attacked power plants
00:14:18in Kyiv and Kharkiv. The Kremlin has not confirmed a ceasefire
00:14:21on its part. Trump's logic behind all this is
00:14:25simple: diesel is expensive because Ukraine is attacking Russian
00:14:28oil refineries, and that is, to put it mildly,
00:14:31half-truth. For the US, the diesel deal is
00:14:35a sharp U-turn. Since 2022,
00:14:38imports of Russian oil to America have been
00:14:41banned. Last September, Trump wrote to NATO
00:14:44allies, in his characteristic all caps,
00:14:47"STOP BUYING RUSSIAN OIL." This September,
00:14:51he signed a law requiring major buyers of Russian oil
00:14:53to pay up to 100% in tariffs,
00:14:57but now America itself is allowing Russian
00:15:00diesel to the market, and now let's
00:15:03see what part of Trump's story actually holds true,
00:15:06for example, that as recently as last year, Russia
00:15:10was the world's second largest diesel exporter after America,
00:15:13and every tenth barrel of diesel sold came
00:15:16from Russia. Western sanctions did not stop this sale, but redirected
00:15:20Russian oil to India and China. The Kremlin's business
00:15:23only started to decline rapidly when Ukrainian drones
00:15:27started taking out oil refineries one after another.
00:15:30This year, Russian oil refineries have burned on average every three
00:15:34days. Diesel production has fallen by almost three-
00:15:38thirds, and in July, Moscow for the first time in history
00:15:41banned diesel exports, but the root cause
00:15:44of the diesel crisis is still in the Persian Gulf. When the US and
00:15:47Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, Tehran responded by closing
00:15:51the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, about a
00:15:54fifth of the world's oil passed through there, and to this day,
00:15:58the Strait is only partially open. According to the International
00:16:01Energy Agency, the collapse of Middle Eastern exports left
00:16:04the fuel market without a reserve, and that's why the loss of Russian
00:16:08diesel was so painful. So the crisis still started
00:16:11here, Donald Trump started
00:16:14it with Israel, and it didn't start
00:16:17in Ukraine, but why then, according
00:16:20to Trump, is Ukraine actually to blame? Because
00:16:24obviously, Trump himself cannot be to blame, and he
00:16:28has no power over Iran. But at least he can try to give orders to Kyiv.
00:16:32On Friday, Trump again told Zelensky, do what you want with Russia, but
00:16:35stop attacking oil refineries. Trump himself is running
00:16:39out of time. In three weeks, he faces the true
00:16:42moment of truth for his second term,
00:16:45the midterm elections, and what do we see? Diesel prices
00:16:48in America have risen by 71% in a year.
00:16:5274% of Americans are concerned
00:16:55about energy prices, and Trump's approval rating has fallen
00:16:58to 30%. This is the lowest level of his second
00:17:01term. So the master of the White House desperately
00:17:04needs good news, and here it comes:
00:17:08a diesel deal with Putin. Trump promises that with Russian diesel, fuel prices
00:17:11will fall quickly, but will
00:17:14they? The first shipment requested from Putin is 300,000
00:17:18tons. The American transport sector consumes
00:17:21nearly 400,000 tons of diesel per day. So
00:17:25Russian diesel will be burned in the US in less than 24 hours.
00:17:28Trump's own party is also against the diesel deal.
00:17:32Four Republican senators are already demanding, along with Democrats, that the White
00:17:36House halt the deal.
00:17:58and we continue in the studio with the economist from the Bank of Estonia, good evening,
00:18:02good evening. Well, how does this seem to you as an economist, is this
00:18:05just a display or is there really
00:18:09a calming effect on world oil markets from this
00:18:19so in the summer, Russia, a classic exporter of diesel
00:18:23and oil products, was forced to first cut off
00:18:26and limit exports, and secondly, to buy additional diesel fuel
00:18:30generated from the same oil it sold to India,
00:18:34bought from Asia. So, even sanctions might
00:18:37have worked better if their design had considered that diesel flows
00:18:41could reverse and that selling diesel fuel back to Russia
00:18:44should also be sanctioned, which, of course, was not
00:18:48implemented during the summer.
00:18:51In other words, does
00:18:54Putin actually have diesel to send
00:18:57to the USA? Essentially, in today's
00:19:00situation, figuratively speaking, he might have to buy a large part
00:19:04of that diesel from somewhere or make big
00:19:07compromises with
00:19:11the fact that, well, in diesel production, there is also this
00:19:14seasonality, and now they are switching from summer diesel to
00:19:18winter diesel, but this reorientation causes a lot of confusion
00:19:21in the already messy production in Russia, and that actually
00:19:24means that this diesel fuel will have to be sold to the world
00:19:27market at the expense of Russia's own people, and
00:19:31in reality, until the moment when Trump supposedly
00:19:35agreed on something with Putin regarding diesel purchases,
00:19:38the diesel fuel export ban was still in force in Russia,
00:19:42which would have been valid until the end of October,
00:19:45which was actually extended all the time. It is extremely
00:19:47difficult for Russia to sell this diesel fuel, so to speak,
00:19:51at the expense of its own people. The only relief is that
00:19:55Russia had elections two months before the midterm elections
00:19:58in the United States, so the moment of relief may be
00:20:01at hand for Putin, although there was no tension in the election
00:20:05results anyway. Well, why
00:20:07does Donald Trump need this Russian diesel
00:20:11so badly, politically? Well, it looks, to put it mildly,
00:20:14bad. It is certainly a very
00:20:18strange political move, even for American voters. Well,
00:20:21in a way, it's a litmus test that if, well, a few
00:20:24days before, the G7 leaders probably decided, also under pressure
00:20:28from the United States, to release additional fuel, diesel fuel,
00:20:30to the world market, albeit a little less than
00:20:34Russia promised. Then, when
00:20:38the six countries started selling their reserves, the price of diesel
00:20:41fuel in the United States did not fall as a result. Now, when the
00:20:45effect is a little greater, we are talking about cents here,
00:20:48and in all likelihood, this will not actually materialize,
00:20:52because, well, gas station
00:20:56prices are still 70, even up to 80%
00:20:59higher for diesel fuel. Of course, it should be noted that diesel
00:21:03fuel does not directly appeal to American voters, because in Europe,
00:21:06diesel fuel is used relatively two to three times
00:21:09more, meaning that more than half of our
00:21:12road transport runs on diesel, but in the United
00:21:15States, it's more like a fifth. Donald
00:21:18Trump's supporters include farmers
00:21:22and truck drivers, whom he often addresses directly.
00:21:26The price of diesel is important to them, isn't it? Yes, at the same time,
00:21:29if you think about it, the United States is still a diesel fuel
00:21:33exporter more than an importer, so I would say
00:21:36that it can be combined with some measure at the very
00:21:40last minute, and then say that actually, the real
00:21:44and crude trick is to ban diesel exports from the United States a week
00:21:48before the primaries. And if there was
00:21:52also some deal with Putin before that, well, then that
00:21:55would supposedly amplify it. But why would export
00:21:59restrictions not work particularly well for the United States
00:22:01is an interesting effect, that inevitably, when
00:22:05you refine oil, you get both gasoline and diesel fuel, and
00:22:09if you then start having a surplus of diesel fuel, you will also produce less gasoline,
00:22:12and as a result, there may be a paradoxical surplus of diesel fuel
00:22:16in the United States and a gasoline shortage, and that cannot be allowed
00:22:20to happen. Well, who is actually pushing
00:22:23up the price of diesel more, the US
00:22:26expedition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or
00:22:30still Ukraine's very successful strikes against Russian
00:22:32refineries? Both have their impact, and unfortunately, the world is
00:22:36a whole, and there's nothing to do if before, let's say,
00:22:39five years ago, the European Union bought about half of its diesel
00:22:43fuel from Russia, and now it has certainly fallen to
00:22:46essentially zero, then we hedged
00:22:50against abandoning Russia by buying more from the United
00:22:53States and the Persian Gulf region, so inevitably both these
00:22:57actions have an impact, but today, the Persian Gulf effect is
00:23:00more global and significantly greater, because it has actually
00:23:04removed about 3% to 5%
00:23:06of the world's oil market,
00:23:10creating a deficit, but what role do the
00:23:14Houthis play in this global fuel
00:23:17deficit, about whose heroic deeds we
00:23:21hear a lot in the news lately, the latest being the very tragic
00:23:25bombing of Arriadi Airport, where many
00:23:28people also died. It
00:23:32is true that terrorism can cause
00:23:35great damage with relatively small costs in the world, and
00:23:39well, if you think about energy trade, no oil or diesel
00:23:42tanker is a warship, and well, obviously, if risks arise, then
00:23:46the cost of insurance becomes very high, but purely economically and
00:23:50also purely humanly, it is not reasonable for these operators
00:23:54to pass through these dangerous areas. Well, in some cases, you can take
00:23:57a detour of two weeks and maybe
00:24:00go around another corner, but the fact is that it all
00:24:04leads to higher costs and higher risks, and that is
00:24:07actually reflected in both refining margins and
00:24:11crude oil prices. So that magical approximately $100
00:24:14per barrel price for oil is also the price of futures contracts;
00:24:18spot transactions are rather around $103 already, and that
00:24:22means that, well, in reality, we have created
00:24:26an additional deficit in the market, but it's not yet a disaster,
00:24:29because, well, from the world's oil reserves, we have consumed
00:24:33about six days of about 60 days of supply during
00:24:36the war that started this spring, so in reality,
00:24:39demand has also decreased under conditions of high prices,
00:24:43and well, those who have fallen into energy poverty are still
00:24:51The impact of the energy ceasefire announced by Washington
00:24:54has not yet been noticed in Kyiv. Mayor Vitali Klitschko
00:24:57is urging residents to temporarily leave the city, and exhausting
00:25:01battles are underway at the front Anton Alekseev
00:25:04continues from Ukraine. After the meeting of the US and Russian
00:25:08presidents in Alaska last year, Moscow started talking about some
00:25:11"spirit of Anchorage," referring to alleged secret agreements
00:25:15related to Russia's war against Ukraine. Over the past year, it seemed that
00:25:19the spirit of Anchorage
00:25:22had almost completely dissipated, but the diesel fuel deal brought it
00:25:24back to mind.
00:25:28from both sides: to restore the spirit of Anchorage, namely the spirit
00:25:31of Anchorage in energy form. The main meaning of this agreement is
00:25:35for Russia - to force
00:25:38US pressure on Ukraine so that Ukraine does not strike Russian
00:25:41oil refineries. Well, or to provoke a crisis, a systemic
00:25:45crisis in relations between the USA. Donald Trump yesterday announced
00:25:48energy savings. as a surprise to both Moscow and
00:25:52Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelensky immediately confirmed his readiness to stop
00:25:55attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure if Russia responds
00:25:59in kind. So far, Russia has purposefully and systematically
00:26:02destroyed Ukraine's energy facilities, trying to make
00:26:05the lives of residents of Ukrainian cities unbearable. Kyiv Mayor
00:26:08Vitali Klitschko urged residents to temporarily leave the city. How
00:26:12many people will follow his call is unknown. A and
00:26:16it's up to people's choice, and we can't say for sure that
00:26:19we insist that people leave their homes, because
00:26:23it's extremely difficult for people, after living so
00:26:26long, in conditions of active hostilities,
00:26:29to leave their home, their dwelling.
00:27:1950 minutes. The reason for the delay is power outages and
00:27:23air raid alerts. During an air raid alert, the train stops and passengers are forced
00:27:27to leave
00:27:27the carriages.
00:27:32we stood for an hour and 12 minutes, that's before
00:27:36Kyiv, so we drove here, thank God, there was no evacuation,
00:27:39but it happens,
00:27:40what's happening
00:27:45on the railway once again shows that the war is increasingly affecting
00:27:48areas further away from the front line, while the front line itself
00:27:51hardly changes.
00:27:52You
00:27:56need to understand that these are all tactical offensive actions for now,
00:28:00which do not lead to
00:28:03a strategic result. On the other hand, of course, it's impossible not to conduct
00:28:07them, because that way you can even reach Kyiv, well, retreat. Currently,
00:28:11the most active battles are taking place in Donbas. Russia does not intend to abandon its
00:28:14plans to fully conquer Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which
00:28:17it already in 2022.
00:28:32to reform the troop command system by creating permanently operating
00:28:36corps instead of temporary troop groups, but at least in the Donbas there is
00:28:40troop movement. So instead of at
00:28:43that moment in time, let's say 2024, let
00:28:47it be that year, creating divisions based on strong
00:28:50brigades, in the next year uniting these
00:28:54divisions into corps that could take over
00:28:57the management of large directions,
00:29:00uh, large areas of territory. large directions, we are going our
00:29:04own strange way, although similar formations
00:29:08exist in many armies of the world, including the
00:29:11American and Russian,
00:29:15I don't know why we make these mistakes.
00:29:18It took the Russians 10 months to capture Bakhmut
00:29:22in 2023. it took over a year to conquer. How
00:29:25long it will take for the Russians to conquer Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, no one can
00:29:29say at the moment. These are the last major Donbas cities that are.
00:29:34it may happen that even if you send a million people, they will all
00:29:36die, and it may happen that you send significantly fewer
00:29:40people, but with a different tactic they will achieve
00:29:44a result, this is a very
00:29:47different nature of warfare, and this is interesting, because
00:29:49Europe, for example, does not understand this, and
00:29:53it continues to think that war, modern
00:29:56war, or the war of the future, what is happening now in Ukraine, will be
00:30:00like it was...
00:30:04Mistakes are paid for with human lives. Both Ukraine
00:30:07and Russia do not publish their casualty figures. According to the General Staff of Ukraine,
00:30:11Russia lost over 40,000 soldiers killed in the past month alone,
00:30:14without achieving any significant results. According to Taras Timut,
00:30:17what distinguishes Russia from European countries is precisely its attitude
00:30:21towards human losses.
00:30:22The
00:30:27value of human life, which is maximized
00:30:31in NATO countries, so they can
00:30:34calmly spend 10,000 people, 100,000 people to
00:30:38capture some country or territory, and for them it's
00:30:41nothing. I am not sure that many European countries
00:30:45are ready for the same steps, to sacrifice 100,000
00:30:48people.
00:30:53Germany's former intelligence chief August Hanning was arrested last week
00:30:57on suspicion of espionage and treason. If you.