Ukraine: Espreso TV

20261012 14:30 UTC · 00:30:59 · 540 transcript segments · GDELT Visual Explorer · plain-text transcript · Event Map

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Transcript

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00:00:00that some look pale and have shortness of breath. measures are needed to minimize
00:00:04Russia's attempts to regain the status
00:00:07of a major geopolitical player, that is, Russia's actions
00:00:11can be regarded as
00:00:13indeed acts of aggression,
00:00:17they, so to speak, are currently below
00:00:20the threshold, the conditional threshold of declaring war, and
00:00:24Poland reacts to this. We can point out
00:00:27several directions that we... see today, this is,
00:00:30firstly, projects within
00:00:34NATO. Poland makes a significant contribution to
00:00:38collective security within the alliance, and on October
00:00:4112, the commander of NATO armed forces in Europe is to
00:00:44announce, so to speak, a plan of military actions, or
00:00:48they called it a war plan, a plan for victory. In this
00:00:51plan, they want, and by the way, this will be announced in Poland, and it is about
00:00:55how NATO, as a military-political security
00:00:59alliance... will react with military and
00:01:02non-military measures to acts of aggression against
00:01:05any of its members, and by the way, the NATO Secretary General also clearly
00:01:09said that some things we simply don't see, we don't talk
00:01:13about them, but we are already doing this, so that no one has illusions that we
00:01:16are preparing. Another national component,
00:01:19that is, there are partnership or
00:01:23partner actions of the Polish leadership, as a member of the European Union
00:01:26or, but there are own measures to ensure national security. If we...
00:01:30analyze the volume
00:01:32of weaponry that Poland is purchasing this
00:01:36year, or in the coming year, that is, a massive rearmament of the armed forces
00:01:40of the Republic of Poland, it's a fact, and by the way, something very similar is observed
00:01:44in other neighboring countries
00:01:47in the Baltics first and foremost. For example,
00:01:50Estonians are moving one of their most combat-ready brigades closer to the Russian
00:01:54border. This is also a factor, so to speak,
00:01:57that should reduce a certain tension. Uh,
00:02:00the level, the level of threat and so on. That is, there is a complex of measures,
00:02:04but here, in my opinion,
00:02:07in fact, we have to admit very frank things.
00:02:10There are assessments of intelligence agencies, there are assessments of the expert
00:02:13community, there are certain statements of politicians, but this does not yet mean
00:02:17that any European state, it's not just about Poland or not
00:02:21Poland, any European state, is aware of the level
00:02:24of threat and understands the difference that individual measures
00:02:28to counter Russian hybrid aggression are... one thing, and what is called
00:02:31comprehensive, or total defense, total defense, or
00:02:35something like a military state, although they don't like to talk
00:02:38about it, that's something else. When society and states
00:02:42have to proactively mobilize their
00:02:45forces, not allowing aggression, including hybrid Russia,
00:02:48and in case of some power phase or
00:02:52some hostile actions below the threshold of war, to effectively
00:02:55react to them, and on this matter there are many questions.
00:02:58Not accidentally, Ursova...
00:03:02when she made a report on the state of Europe, also literally a few
00:03:05weeks ago, she drew attention to the fact that we must
00:03:08develop a new security strategy for the European Union,
00:03:12and we will start with response protocols to various threats, then
00:03:16there is a vision to create something like
00:03:19a collective security council of the European Union, that is, this is
00:03:23no longer a national level, this is already a supranational level within the framework of a united
00:03:27Europe, and this is an element...
00:03:30so to speak, adequate proactive actions by
00:03:33Europe in this regard, and if we analyze the actions of the
00:03:37Polish leadership, then they really
00:03:40Finland and the Baltic countries, they, so to speak, are the drivers of these
00:03:44changes, because they are the first to feel
00:03:46the increase in this level
00:03:49of threat. Hybrid threats or
00:03:53hybrid attacks also affect Bulgaria.
00:03:56Recently, two civilian ships were hit by
00:03:59marine drones, and this was also mentioned by
00:04:02President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. Let's
00:04:06listen to what he emphasized in his
00:04:09speech. Last night,
00:04:12two civilian ships were attacked in Bulgarian waters,
00:04:15one sank, and the other suffered significant damage.
00:04:19We sympathize with all those affected. The Ukrainian
00:04:23defense forces did not conduct
00:04:26any offensive operations in this area. This
00:04:30regular tragedy with
00:04:33civilian ships continues, continues
00:04:36Russia's attempts to turn the western
00:04:39part of the Black Sea into
00:04:43absolutely unsuitable for navigation.
00:04:46All data has been clarified with the Bulgarian side, our
00:04:50naval forces contacted their colleagues
00:04:54in Bulgaria, it was established that this is a Russian combined attack
00:04:58by sea and air drones.
00:05:02So, Mr. Serhii, what is the
00:05:04tactical, and possibly strategic goal
00:05:08of these strikes on, essentially
00:05:11ships? Yes, civilian ships, one of
00:05:14them sank, the crew, as far as we understand,
00:05:18died. So strategically, what
00:05:21does Russia want to achieve with this? We believe that
00:05:25Russia in this case has several
00:05:28strategic goals. The first, which
00:05:31is obvious, is to distract our partners
00:05:34from programs, from projects of assistance to Ukraine. They want
00:05:37to achieve that due to the danger
00:05:40to civilians.
00:05:42or, for example, the danger of other communication routes, both
00:05:46export and import, our
00:05:48partners will say that the price is too high, and we cannot continue support
00:05:52programs. This is such an obvious goal,
00:05:56but I would look at this situation more broadly. From what
00:06:00side? Firstly, it's probably already the second thing,
00:06:03it seems to me, and this is not only my opinion, that the Russian Federation
00:06:07is testing the level of NATO's response and the level
00:06:10of response of individual countries.
00:06:12And perhaps Bulgaria here was also not chosen by chance, because
00:06:16certain historical, cultural ties between Bulgaria and
00:06:20the Soviet Union, then Russia, existed and
00:06:23still exist. And when the object of attack, it is
00:06:26the former, let's say, partner state
00:06:30that acts, well, former, again, then this raises
00:06:34a double question, what is it, and we think that this is a test, what
00:06:38will Bulgaria do, what will NATO do? There are two options, either
00:06:41the fifth article of NATO on collective defense is activated, but
00:06:44throughout history we see that it was only activated after terrorist
00:06:48attacks on the United States, or
00:06:51other articles of joint
00:06:55NATO actions are activated, they also exist, and there are also military measures,
00:06:58for example, escorting civilian, civilian
00:07:02ships by naval forces of the united navies, NATO,
00:07:06or, for example, air patrolling, early detection or
00:07:09neutralization of Russian strike forces that operate in the Black
00:07:13Sea corridor, that is, these are also military measures, this is not direct
00:07:17attacks, retaliatory strikes against Russia, but this is also a response from
00:07:20the alliance, well, roughly like that.
00:07:23Mr. Serhii, thank you for your thoughts, for your expert
00:07:27analysis. Serhii Halushko, military expert, head
00:07:30of the department of the Center for Security Studies, National Institute for Strategic
00:07:34Studies and director of defense programs
00:07:37of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future. Well,
00:07:41we... move on and talk about
00:07:45exports from the Persian Gulf countries,
00:07:48which have practically returned to the level
00:07:51that was before the start of the war between Israel,
00:07:54Iran and the United States
00:07:57of America. Why does Trump accuse
00:08:00Ukraine of a diesel
00:08:03deficit in the world? Let's watch
00:08:06a report from our colleagues about the current
00:08:09situation in the Persian Gulf.
00:08:13Oil exports from the Persian Gulf countries have almost returned to the level that
00:08:17was before the start of the war between Israel and the US against Iran.
00:08:21At the same time, the resumption of supplies does not yet mean the return of normal operations
00:08:24of the energy market. More and more crude oil passes through
00:08:28the Strait of Hormuz, but significantly less finished
00:08:31fuel. According to analytical company
00:08:33Kpler, as of October 3, an average of 10
00:08:37million barrels of oil cargo passed through the Strait of Hormuz
00:08:40per day. This is about 76% of
00:08:44the pre-war level, but only more than a million barrels accounted
00:08:48for petroleum products, gasoline, diesel and other finished fuel, which is
00:08:51approximately 11% of all cargo. Before the war in the Middle
00:08:55East, the share of petroleum products usually exceeded
00:08:5820%. The main reason is disruptions in the operation
00:09:01of oil refineries in the region, this creates a separate problem
00:09:05for the world market, crude oil can continue to flow to
00:09:09consumers, but to produce diesel and gasoline it... needs
00:09:13to be processed. The largest part of the additional volumes that are currently
00:09:16coming out of the Persian Gulf goes to Asia, China,
00:09:20Japan and South Korea have their own oil refining capacities and
00:09:24a significant part of the produced fuel is left for the domestic
00:09:27market. At the same time, the resumption of oil exports remains
00:09:30dependent on the safety of navigation. Since September
00:09:3328, the British service has recorded seven attacks on
00:09:36ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this, in September
00:09:40crude oil exports from the region, excluding
00:09:43Iran, reached at least 16 million barrels
00:09:46per day. As experts say, the main change now is not only in the volume
00:09:50of exports, but in its structure. The world market is receiving more and more
00:09:54crude oil, but significantly less finished
00:09:57fuel.
00:09:59And we welcome our guest, Oksana
00:10:02Ishchuk, Executive Director of the Center for Global Studies Strategy
00:10:0621st Century. Ms. Oksana, we
00:10:10welcome you. Good day. Ms.
00:10:13Oksana, let's start with Trump and Ukraine.
00:10:17So, the President of the United States of America almost
00:10:20daily declares that the problems with
00:10:23fuel, in particular,
00:10:25in the world are precisely due to Ukraine's strikes
00:10:29on Russian oil refineries,
00:10:32but there is no factual confirmation of these
00:10:35words. There is confirmation regarding
00:10:39the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, generally in the countries
00:10:43of the Persian Gulf, why does the President of the United States of America
00:10:46constantly talk about this and emphasize
00:10:49it?
00:10:52Trump has two reasons for this, firstly, these are interim. because in
00:10:55November he needs to maintain his
00:10:58rating and distract, so to speak, the attention
00:11:02of the average American voter
00:11:05from
00:11:08what is happening in Iran, that is,
00:11:11actually such a political simplification, yes, it
00:11:14is caused precisely by Trump's
00:11:18attempt to shift responsibility to Ukraine
00:11:21and to the Democrats. What the International...
00:11:25agency says is that in the last eight
00:11:28months the price of oil and
00:11:31petroleum products has indeed increased
00:11:34due to the war in Iran, and not due to Ukraine's
00:11:38strikes on Russian oil refineries. However, it should be
00:11:41noted that Russia historically was
00:11:45the second largest exporter of diesel to the world market after
00:11:48the United States. And it was precisely Ukrainian strikes that
00:11:52caused.
00:11:55caused a reduction in oil refining in Russia, and
00:11:59accordingly, Russia was forced
00:12:02to impose a ban on
00:12:05the export of diesel to the world
00:12:08market, that is, Ukrainian strikes are
00:12:11a secondary, but not the main
00:12:14reason for the sharp increase
00:12:18in prices on the world market, which has already lasted more than 8
00:12:21months, and the main reason is...
00:12:25the war that Trump started in Iran and the blocking of the Strait of
00:12:29Hormuz. Why has Trump now
00:12:33become more active, and is actively talking about this, about the fact
00:12:37that Ukrainian strikes are the main reason?
00:12:40Here there are two factors. The first factor is the
00:12:44domestic political situation, that is, he is trying again
00:12:48to shift responsibility to the Democrats and Ukraine for
00:12:51his actions in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran. And the second reason
00:12:55is an attempt to put pressure on
00:12:59Ukraine in order to achieve an energy
00:13:02truce. Ms. Oksana, you
00:13:05have already started talking about diesel
00:13:08exports, about details, but let's add a little
00:13:12more information. So, who
00:13:15exports the most diesel? According to the results
00:13:18of 2025, the global
00:13:21volume of diesel fuel exports amounted to about eight
00:13:25barrels per day, almost half of the world's supplies
00:13:28are provided by five countries. In first place
00:13:31are the United States of America. The country exports a little more than
00:13:35a million barrels of diesel per day, or
00:13:3815% of the world's volume. Russia
00:13:41occupies the second position, about 800
00:13:44thousand barrels per day, or 9.5%
00:13:48of world exports. After the European
00:13:51Union introduced an embargo, Russian supplies
00:13:55reoriented from the European market to the countries of Asia,
00:13:58Africa and Latin America. The third country
00:14:02is Saudi Arabia, followed by India and
00:14:05South Korea. At the same time, the largest regional
00:14:09exporter is Europe -
00:14:1135.3% of world supplies. A significant
00:14:15part of this volume falls on trade between
00:14:18the countries of the European Union themselves.
00:14:22So, Ms. Oksana, if
00:14:25we detail, then of course, we
00:14:29are talking about the Middle East, and
00:14:33is it really possible to talk about the restoration
00:14:36of trade, economic activity in
00:14:40the Middle East, or is it still very
00:14:44difficult to say that import,
00:14:48export has returned to the level it was before
00:14:51February 2026? Yes, well, according to the latest data that
00:14:56you have already announced in the introduction to our broadcast, according to
00:15:00the Kpler agency,
00:15:04the restoration, in particular of crude oil flows, is taking
00:15:07place at a level of approximately 10 million barrels per day, and this
00:15:11is approximately 74%
00:15:14of the pre-war level, but at the same time, it should be noted that
00:15:17this means passage through the Strait of
00:15:21Hormuz, and... Again,
00:15:24these Kpler data
00:15:28differ from the actual data on the actual passage of ships
00:15:31through the Strait of Hormuz, because they give such a
00:15:34high figure for oil exports, while noting
00:15:38that on October 7, for example,
00:15:4110 tankers and commercial
00:15:44vessels passed, and on October 6,
00:15:48seven tankers and commercial vessels passed in total, while
00:15:51before the war, the passage of ships through the Strait of
00:15:55Hormuz was approximately 120-125 ships per
00:15:58day, and we understand that some
00:16:02ships disable their
00:16:06safety
00:16:07transponders, so they
00:16:10do not detect these vessels. Oil
00:16:14flow has resumed, yes,
00:16:17but it has also resumed due to the operation
00:16:20of the Saudi Arabia East-West
00:16:23pipeline, and also due to the operation
00:16:26of the Khabshan-Fujairah pipeline in
00:16:30the UAE,
00:16:33and because of this, the volumes
00:16:36of exports, in particular of crude oil, are increasing. Why are
00:16:40petroleum products and diesel not recovering? Firstly,
00:16:44oil refineries were hit,
00:16:46particularly in Saudi
00:16:50Arabia, which, according to your data, which you just
00:16:53showed, was the third largest
00:16:56historical exporter of diesel in the world.
00:17:00Currently, in 2026,
00:17:02Saudi Arabia's diesel export figures, particularly
00:17:06due to problems... in the Strait of Hormuz, have
00:17:10significantly worsened, and Saudi Arabia
00:17:13is already somewhere in eighth or ninth place.
00:17:17Therefore, diesel, it is harder
00:17:21to export, because you need to first refine crude
00:17:25oil to get diesel. Not all oil refineries
00:17:29have recovered in the Persian Gulf
00:17:31countries. Oil can be stored in strategic
00:17:35reserves, extracted from fields, and immediately sent for
00:17:38export. Therefore, first oil recovers, again,
00:17:42volumes have recovered due to exports
00:17:45through additional logistical, bypass
00:17:49routes. With diesel and oil products,
00:17:52it's a bit more complicated. Here not only Russia is playing on the market, which as the second
00:17:56exporter has
00:17:59limited its volumes
00:18:03of diesel on the world market, but also China's position is also
00:18:06playing. China, which was traditionally also one of the large
00:18:10exporters of diesel, but in recent weeks
00:18:14it has also been limiting the export of petroleum products to
00:18:17the market. Therefore, we have such a situation that
00:18:21the movement of ships, it
00:18:24is unstable,
00:18:27we cannot talk about a complete recovery,
00:18:30but we do record in the last week of September, at
00:18:34the beginning of October, a recovery.
00:18:37approximately 3/4 to the pre-war level of crude
00:18:41oil exports, a partial,
00:18:43insignificant recovery of diesel and petroleum products,
00:18:47however, this does not indicate that de-escalation
00:18:50is taking place, but rather that these are
00:18:54temporary improvements, but
00:18:56stable ship movement has not been restored, and further
00:18:59disruptions will also be felt due to, in particular, the situation
00:19:03in the Red Sea, the situation... Ms. Oksana, what about
00:19:10prices? We see that prices, in principle,
00:19:14are not falling either for oil or for
00:19:17fuel, already finished fuel, so
00:19:21gasoline prices in Ukraine, naturally, in
00:19:24Europe, in the United States of America, they are either
00:19:28high, or even growing a little
00:19:31more. What affects this? You say that
00:19:35there is still some movement, but...
00:19:38we do not see any decrease. What is your
00:19:41forecast for what will happen, let's say,
00:19:45at least until the end of this year, can we expect
00:19:48some stabilization or decrease in prices on world
00:19:52markets?
00:19:55Yes, well, the situation with crude oil prices was very
00:19:58illustrative in September. The price
00:20:01held at approximately $98 per barrel of crude
00:20:05oil, but when there were Houthi
00:20:08attacks on the East-West pipeline and
00:20:11it was temporarily stopped
00:20:15exporting through it, there were also Houthi attacks on the port of Yanbu, and
00:20:18shipments from it ceased, then these
00:20:21Houthi attacks immediately caused an increase in crude
00:20:24oil prices on the market, this was in mid-September by
00:20:2811%, approximately from $98
00:20:32to $110, oil rose for
00:20:36a few days, respectively, the situation
00:20:39here in the Persian Gulf countries is
00:20:42the main factor affecting
00:20:46the price of crude oil, and accordingly,
00:20:50the price of crude oil also affects
00:20:53petroleum products, diesel. In addition, we understand
00:20:56that insurers, they
00:20:59also have their risk premium, yes, this
00:21:02fear premium, as soon as any unrest occurs in the Red
00:21:06Sea or in the Persian
00:21:09Gulf, immediately, without waiting for
00:21:12improvement, insurers add this
00:21:15premium, and accordingly the price increases, that is, there is an actual
00:21:18increase in... physical volumes, and there is an increase
00:21:22in markets, that is, a paper increase,
00:21:26which is called a fear premium, and
00:21:29it can increase very quickly,
00:21:32this price increase, and very quickly it can
00:21:36roll back depending on the geopolitical situation. Regarding
00:21:39the forecast, in the last
00:21:438-9 months, the price has held around
00:21:45$98-100 per barrel. There were
00:21:48historical peaks
00:21:51in early March, approximately $120 per
00:21:54barrel, they lasted a short time, a few
00:21:57days. They say that the most
00:22:00favorable price, both for exporters and
00:22:03for importing countries,
00:22:07which allows the industry not to fall into
00:22:11recession and also for exporters
00:22:14to have a good margin, is approximately $90
00:22:18per barrel, 90. 98,
00:22:20respectively, the forecast is
00:22:24that by the end of this year, the price
00:22:27will remain in these ranges
00:22:30of $98-100 per barrel, and I don't
00:22:34think there will be a very large increase to the level
00:22:37of $120, because this is unprofitable for both
00:22:40industry, and
00:22:44it is profitable for exporting countries, but the global
00:22:47industry will suffer much... more, and exporting
00:22:51countries will then try to regulate the price a little,
00:22:54for example, we see the latest actions
00:22:57that the G7 countries, in order
00:23:00to prevent the price of diesel from rising,
00:23:04agreed to release additional
00:23:07додаткових,
00:23:09barrels of petroleum products
00:23:12and oil into the market,
00:23:15so they will try to keep the price at
00:23:19the current level, and a sharp increase
00:23:23is unprofitable primarily for
00:23:26global industry. Who is primarily
00:23:29affected by the prices of oil and
00:23:33fuel, gasoline, diesel, which countries
00:23:36suffer the most and what to do in such a
00:23:38case?
00:23:42Countries suffer, first
00:23:45of all, Asian countries suffer,
00:23:49in principle, European countries suffer. If we talk about the industry, it is
00:23:52industry and, in particular, the agricultural
00:23:56sector, because in order to harvest
00:23:59or sow, it is necessary
00:24:01to refuel equipment. Accordingly,
00:24:05we understand that the global increase in oil
00:24:09prices is reflected equally, how,
00:24:13I apologize, it is reflected equally both
00:24:16in European countries and in Asian countries.
00:24:21Reserves of countries
00:24:24are decreasing, strategic reserves
00:24:27are decreasing, the ability
00:24:30to react and the ability of this maneuvering step
00:24:34of the G7 countries
00:24:37is falling due to the fact that reserves are decreasing in countries, in particular, for example, in the United States, there is currently
00:24:41the lowest historical maximum
00:24:44of strategic oil reserves, in particular, they currently have
00:24:47283. barrels, this lowest level was
00:24:52last observed in 1972,
00:24:55therefore, high prices are unprofitable for any
00:24:58country, they affect everyone equally,
00:25:02we understand that in the United States the situation is a little better, because
00:25:06they have their own production, they are the largest exporter in
00:25:09the world, both of diesel and oil.
00:25:13European countries suffer, Asian countries also
00:25:16suffer. Thank you for your thoughts, for your expert
00:25:20analysis. Oksana Ishchuk, Executive Director
00:25:24of the Center for Global Strategy 21st
00:25:28Century was with us on air. So,
00:25:31these were the main geopolitical
00:25:34events of the week. You were watching the program Svitohlyad
00:25:38and Andrii Smoli. Stay with us.
00:25:42Now, the main thing.
00:25:44нами.
00:25:56an information and analytical show about
00:25:59Ukraine and the world, politics, economics, war and... security
00:26:03without manipulation, emotions and simplifications, we analyze
00:26:06the events of the day, decisions that are being made right now and
00:26:10their consequences for the country and society. Hosts and
00:26:13experts explain complex things clearly,
00:26:16this is not just a news broadcast, it is a guide in the complex
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