Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00do whatever they can. For example, I think the war
00:00:03that recently started between Ansar Allah and the Saudis, where
00:00:07Ansar Allah attacks
00:00:10energy infrastructures inside Saudi Arabia,
00:00:13restricting the flow of Saudi oil to
00:00:17global markets, is good news for Iran. I'm not saying
00:00:21Iran told Ansar Allah to start
00:00:24this conflict, because I don't believe such a thing happened.
00:00:27But nevertheless,
00:00:30the conflict between Ansar Allah and the Saudis is in Iran's favor
00:00:33because it puts more economic pressure on the global economy.
00:00:37In fact, it puts more pressure on President Trump.
00:00:40So, the more problems there are in the Middle East, or the Persian
00:00:43Gulf region, and the Red Sea region, the more
00:00:47it benefits Iran, because Iran's leverage
00:00:51is now basically economic. And of course, America's
00:00:54leverage against Iran is also mainly economic
00:00:58now. There's no military option here.
00:01:51If you look at the result, like the 40-day war, you see that despite
00:01:54it appearing to be a mistake, their assessment was correct.
00:01:58What did they say before the 40-day war? They said there won't be a war because
00:02:02a war won't achieve what they want.
00:02:05But I said, what was the difference between Trump and that person?
00:02:08That person's assessment was that war would achieve that.
00:02:12Ultimately, who predicted correctly? Mearsheimer.
00:02:16Now he's still considering Trump a very
00:02:20reasonable person. He sees himself in Trump.
00:02:23Well, of course, that's not
00:02:27the case. And he says that Americans
00:02:30will not attack, neither before the mid-term elections nor after the mid-term elections, at least
00:02:34in the short term, until there's a technological leap in military matters
00:02:38that would significantly increase America's capabilities.
00:02:42He says they won't attack. Why? Because
00:02:45they did everything they could
00:02:49in the 40-day war, and because
00:02:53the situation worsened, as he says in the first part of this conversation,
00:02:56because the situation worsened, they came to an agreement with the Iranians.
00:03:00In fact, the content of the agreement wasn't very important to him. He wanted to sign
00:03:04something to finish it, and his plan was not
00:03:07to act on it. What he's saying is
00:03:10that he would sign anything because he didn't want to act on it. The content wasn't
00:03:14very important to him, but he wanted the signature for this
00:03:18to end. Now, his prediction and logic is this:
00:03:21what will happen now, we'll have to see. Excuse me, just one
00:03:25sentence. He's considering an optimal point. He says, not before the elections, not close
00:03:29to the elections, not after. You have to put pressure to a point where
00:03:33he gives the concessions you want. That's the point of maximum pressure. Reach that maximum point and don't worry
00:03:36about the other time. And based on what happened, exactly at this
00:03:40sensitive time in Yemen and in the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, we have this very
00:03:44important energy event. Yes, well, let's go to the sixth
00:03:47part of the conversation. This is it, that now the Russia issue, which Trump
00:03:51is trying a little bit, because it doesn't have a very amazing
00:03:55effect on the US energy discussion. We should talk about it separately, but even that little bit
00:03:59is still
00:04:26a decision or decisions
00:04:28that Tehran might make
00:04:32that would lead to
00:04:35an aggressive attack by the US on Iran.
00:04:37happen.
00:04:43What wrong decisions might Tehran make that would
00:04:47lead to another
00:04:49attack on itself?
00:04:53See, the first question I ask myself when I think about another
00:04:57possible attack from the US is whether
00:05:00the Israelis will also be involved and what targets
00:05:04inside Iran they will hit. You should know that the Americans
00:05:07and Israelis together carried out a 40-day strategic bombing operation
00:05:10from February 28th to
00:05:14April 8th, but it failed to force
00:05:17the Iranians to surrender. In fact, the Americans
00:05:20and Israelis were forced to end that
00:05:2440-day operation because their valuable
00:05:27ammunition was running out.
00:05:31It's very important to know that since April 8th, the US has not carried out
00:05:34any widespread air operations against
00:05:37Iran. We had two periods of retaliatory
00:05:41attacks, during which Iranians and Americans carried out limited attacks on each other,
00:05:44and each period lasted about two weeks. These were
00:05:48retaliatory attacks, not a strategic bombing operation, limited bombings
00:05:52by Iran and the US. The Americans stopped
00:05:55those retaliatory attacks because, firstly, we couldn't use more
00:05:59weapons. We wanted to save our valuable weapons.
00:06:03Secondly, these attacks were not yielding results. So, the question you should
00:06:06ask yourself is, what will we do next time that will work? Our
00:06:10weapons are still limited. Even if we involve Israel,
00:06:14they didn't help much last time. Why should they help
00:06:17a lot this time? So, I think the only possible explanation for what's
00:06:21different this time is that this time we're going to hit Iran's oil and gas
00:06:25infrastructure. We're going to hit refineries,
00:06:28transportation networks, and port facilities. Power plants,
00:06:32yes, yes, exactly. Well, there's no doubt that the US and Israel
00:06:36can do that, but the problem from the US perspective is that Iran has
00:06:39retaliatory capabilities, and Iranians can hit countries on the Persian Gulf
00:06:43and Israel itself. They can disable oil facilities and desalination
00:06:47plants in places like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Iranians can
00:06:51cause a lot of damage in those countries and
00:06:55also inside Israel, and this has disastrous
00:06:59consequences for the global economy. You could say this ends up benefiting Iran.
00:07:03Of course, the destruction within Iran would be terrible. I don't want to downplay
00:07:06that. But if these back-and-forth air attacks
00:07:10ultimately destroy oil facilities throughout the Persian Gulf
00:07:14and cause severe damage to the Persian Gulf countries and Israel itself,
00:07:17then in my opinion, this is not a winning strategy.
00:07:21I don't believe anyone in the Trump administration thinks that going
00:07:25down this path will lead to victory. In fact, it will only
00:07:28make a bad situation worse. Furthermore, the reason why we, I mean the Americans,
00:07:31haven't attacked Iran's oil facilities and energy
00:07:35infrastructure so far is because we know it won't work. This
00:07:38is not a smart strategy today. It
00:07:41wasn't a smart strategy in the past, and it won't be a smart strategy
00:07:45after the November elections either. Now, this doesn't mean that President
00:07:49Trump won't do it, because who knows for sure what Trump will do?
00:07:52But the only thing I'm telling you is that you yourselves
00:07:56surely know that strategically, it's not logical for the US
00:07:59to target Iran's oil, gas, and energy infrastructure
00:08:02inside Iran. Again, what I mean by all of this is that I don't
00:08:06think we have a military
00:08:08option.
00:08:11Again, I ask, what shouldn't Tehran do
00:08:14to avoid this potential attack on itself?
00:08:17If you want to talk about what Iran
00:08:21should or shouldn't do to prevent another
00:08:24round of these attacks,
00:08:27and keep the pressure on the American side, forcing it
00:08:31to make an agreement, what is that proposal? What are the
00:08:34wrong policies that Tehran might adopt?
00:08:38It's very hard to say. I mean, Tehran must be prepared to retaliate
00:08:42if the US attacks its oil and energy infrastructure.
00:08:45I think the Iranians must make it clear
00:08:48to the US. Of course, I think they have already done so. Iranian leaders have very
00:08:52clearly stated that if the US and Israel, or even the US alone, attacks
00:08:55Iran and targets its oil energy
00:08:59infrastructure, Iran will retaliate. Iran
00:09:02will respond powerfully, and I think it's very much in Iran's
00:09:05interest to make this clear, as it has
00:09:08done. I don't think it's in Iran's interest
00:09:11to initiate a widespread attack on the oil
00:09:15energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in any of
00:09:19the Persian Gulf countries. I think
00:09:22Iran should have this as an option for retaliation,
00:09:26but it's not logical to start a conflict now with a preemptive attack on the oil infrastructure
00:09:30of the Persian Gulf countries.
00:09:33I think what the Iranians want and are doing
00:09:36is constantly looking for smart solutions
00:09:40until then.
00:09:56If you look at the bond yields in
00:09:59the world, you know I'm not an economist,
00:10:03so I don't specialize in these matters, but all
00:10:06the economists and business people I know say that
00:10:10rising bond yields are very important.
00:10:25The market will continue to soar and cause serious damage to the global economy.
00:10:28Again, I say, any bad event for the global
00:10:32economy is certainly not good for the US or most countries
00:10:36in the world, but the paradox is that it's good for Iran because it gains
00:10:40its leverage from this, and of course, the Iranians have done everything
00:10:43they can to put pressure on the global economy and at the same time minimize
00:10:47the pressure inside Iran.
00:10:48برسونند
00:10:53I played with the question a bit and tried to ask it in a way that
00:10:57also brings up that different perspective. I think it was very clear. I elaborated
00:11:01on Trump's mental health. He said, "I don't know either." That
00:11:05point we made, he also said, "I'm saying
00:11:08this as a logical option, he shouldn't
00:11:12do this, but who knows what this lunatic is capable
00:11:16of?" Yes, in the economic discussion, he still emphasizes that
00:11:19any action that Iran takes to pressure the global economy, and of course,
00:11:23he emphasizes again, he says, "We have mentioned this many times in Vahid's
00:11:26program, Nima mentioned it, what has caused
00:11:30the enemy not to attack our infrastructure
00:11:33is that it knows we will respond very strongly to the region's
00:11:37and Israel's infrastructure." You can respond because it knows
00:11:40you have power. If we didn't,
00:11:44I've said this many times, they make no distinction between us and the people of Gaza.
00:11:48They can do it there. Here
00:11:50the cost is high. Here they have to pay the price. That's
00:11:54why they don't do it. See, and of course, he rejects a preemptive attack.
00:11:58He says Iran shouldn't do this preemptive attack on infrastructure, a widespread attack on infrastructure
00:12:01that would lead to a response. That is, exactly, see, the same point that
00:12:05he won't hit the infrastructure. You, as a threat, keep the Sword
00:12:09of Damocles hanging there, but put pressure on
00:12:12the economy. Iran is saying Iran must increase economic pressure. Naturally,
00:12:16that means controlling Hormuz. The simplest is that Emirati
00:12:19ships, the route should really be the Omani route. Oman should
00:12:23really be out of it.
00:12:26This Emirati route is closed. I really mean in the past few
00:12:30nights, Iran is really showing a stronger approach.
00:12:33It was strong, it's showing a stronger one, that leak in the Strait of Hormuz that we mentioned.
00:12:36It's called a leak, but it's a very big leak. It should really
00:12:40be completely blocked, Insha'Allah. This is the same pressure, without touching the infrastructure of other countries.
00:12:43This itself is an important point. The last question, UAE,
00:12:47it also concerns the UAE. Let's hear our last question and return
00:12:51to the studio for the final part of the analysis.
00:13:25and joined Israel, because the others had only provided their bases
00:13:28to them, or Iran was attacked from their territory and airspace,
00:13:32but the Emiratis even attacked Iranian territory
00:13:36with their own Mirage fighters and dropped bombs
00:13:39on Iran. Of course,
00:13:42the Iranians also retaliated by attacking
00:13:46the Emiratis. Here's a question: some people
00:13:49believe that since the UAE has normalized
00:13:52its relations with Israel and is Iran's neighbor,
00:13:58it has a very significant impact on Iran's economy.
00:14:01The UAE has historically facilitated
00:14:04Iran's economic activities through Dubai, meaning the UAE played a very important role in
00:14:08Iran's economy. Some believe that the economic problems
00:14:11Iran is facing also have their roots in
00:14:14the UAE. Some believe Iran can
00:14:17draw the UAE towards itself and separate it
00:14:21from Israel. Others say no, this is not possible.
00:14:25The UAE will not prefer Iran over
00:14:27Israel. How do you analyze the UAE's role
00:14:31in this region, and also in this war and aggression?
00:14:34Well, I think there's no doubt that your description of the UAE and its relationship
00:14:38with Israel and the US, and with Iran, is correct. I think
00:14:41the main issue is what happens next. Now, a lot
00:14:45depends on how you see
00:14:48the future of US bases and
00:14:52the future of the US security umbrella in the Gulf.
00:14:55As we know, on February 7th,
00:14:58the US had many very important
00:15:02military facilities in the Persian Gulf.
00:15:05At that time, it seemed that its security umbrella
00:15:09was completely over all the Persian Gulf countries
00:15:12and the US, with all those bases,
00:15:16was in a very good position to ensure the security of countries like
00:15:19the UAE. Now, we know that's no
00:15:23longer the case. The Iranians have almost
00:15:25severely damaged or destroyed
00:15:28all US military facilities in the Persian Gulf. In fact,
00:15:32as you know, we have transferred a large part of our military equipment
00:15:36to Jordan and Israel.
00:15:43From now on, it's not clear if the US can effectively
00:15:47ensure the security of the UAE or other Persian Gulf countries,
00:15:50and in my opinion, this means that from now on, it's in the interest of the Persian
00:15:54Gulf countries to reach some kind of agreement
00:15:57for coexistence with Iran. It's not very
00:16:01logical for a country like Saudi Arabia or the UAE to have
00:16:04hostile relations with Iran.
00:16:07The idea that the US can protect them, because as we've seen since February 8th,
00:16:11the US can not only not protect these countries,
00:16:15but it has also caused a war that has inflicted immense damage
00:16:18on these countries. So, the US has shown that it's more of a nuisance than
00:16:22a help. All of this means that the UAE's
00:16:25calculations from now on are different from what they were before February
00:16:298th, and even from the past few months. The UAE must seriously
00:16:33consider how it wants to interact with Iran in the future.
00:16:37And in my opinion, from a purely strategic and
00:16:40calculating perspective, the UAE has a significant interest
00:16:44in changing its policy towards Iran, just like
00:16:48the other Persian Gulf countries. It's also
00:16:51in their interest to improve their relations with Iran. This was
00:16:55my first main point. My second main point
00:16:58is that it's completely clear that Iran now
00:17:02has a truly powerful arsenal of ballistic
00:17:05missiles, missiles that can
00:17:11cause immense damage to the UAE, among others. And I imagine
00:17:15that from now on, what will happen is that Iran's arsenal
00:17:18will become larger and more lethal, and this is a very
00:17:22big problem for the UAE. The UAE will become very vulnerable
00:17:26to Iranian attacks, and in my opinion, the Iranians will make it clear
00:17:29to them that if they cause
00:17:33trouble, they will have to pay a heavy
00:17:36price. And as we both know,
00:17:40the Iranians are capable of inflicting a very heavy
00:17:43blow on the UAE. So, the UAE will be in a situation where
00:17:47there are serious limitations on the amount of trouble it can cause
00:17:51for Iran, because the balance of power is clearly in favor
00:17:54of the Iranians. If you put Iran and the UAE face-to-face in a battle,
00:17:57it's like Bambi against Godzilla. Iran is Godzilla
00:18:01and the UAE is Bambi. In short, if we go back to my first point, I think it's in the UAE's
00:18:05interest to improve its relations with Iran and not get into a conflict.
00:18:09This doesn't mean that the UAE should have hostile relations with the US
00:18:12or even hostile relations with Israel.
00:18:16I think from the UAE's perspective, it might be very logical to try
00:18:19to significantly improve its relations with Iran, but at the same time, also have good
00:18:23relations with the US and Israel. In short, I don't think
00:18:26the UAE will cause significant trouble for Iran from now on.
00:18:30In fact, I don't think any country in the Persian Gulf will be a serious
00:18:33threat to Iran from now on, because Iran is much more powerful.
00:18:42Thank you very much, Professor John Mearsheimer,
00:18:46for being with us. Thank you for accepting our invitation and giving us your time.
00:18:50You're welcome. It's a pleasure to be on your program.
00:18:53Thank you. Well, this is the last part. I think
00:18:57we have about 67 minutes of the program. What is your
00:19:00opinion on the UAE? How do you see his perspective, and
00:19:04are there signs of a change in behavior?
00:19:34And people who, after all, benefit from these economic
00:19:38relationships. In terms of military power, he's absolutely right. He says
00:19:42Iran has shown itself at a level where no country
00:19:45in this region should essentially challenge it
00:19:48anymore. But, again,
00:19:52my understanding is that the UAE has made its decision,
00:19:55and he's really right. It's not
00:19:58in the UAE's interest to get into a conflict.
00:20:02Bambi fighting Godzilla is to Bambi's detriment.
00:20:05But I say, again, my understanding is that
00:20:09the UAE has made its decision. Netanyahu's visit to the UAE just a few
00:20:13days ago should be carefully considered. For example, they didn't
00:20:17think, "Oh, he suddenly went there." They were put on the spot,
00:20:20for example, they didn't know what to say, so they said, "Well,
00:20:24he's a guest now, he came, let's have some tea," and so on. These
00:20:27thoughts must be discarded. We need to look
00:20:31more carefully. But these
00:20:34thoughts, which are actually good, are thoughts that believe that the UAE's Crown Prince
00:20:38is anti-Israeli and under pressure. For example, he keeps saying,
00:20:41"Please don't come to my house." Then he suddenly lands his plane there,
00:20:45and this one says, "He's God's guest, he must come in."
00:20:48خداست باید بیاد تو.
00:21:38UAE, look, all the countries in the southern Persian Gulf, in their hostility
00:21:41towards Iran, all of them were hostile. Yes,
00:21:45the good ones, as mentioned, had American bases there. Let's not
00:21:49forget that.
00:21:54But they have all lost something at present. There was only one
00:21:58country that had invested in the future,
00:22:01and it lost that future, and that was the UAE. Look, if
00:22:05investment security is compromised anywhere,
00:22:08then all countries are harmed. But there was only one
00:22:11that, if investment security doesn't exist, has nothing
00:22:15at all. It is, after all, an oil and gas producer, but it is
00:22:18a very small part. All
00:22:21of these, for example, have a tourism industry,
00:22:25the issue of airlines, all of them have them to some extent, but there's one
00:22:29whose airline industry, its aviation industry in the world,
00:22:33is its own. That one is the UAE. All of them have worked
00:22:36in the AI field. All of them, more or less, but
00:22:40one of them has gone into it massively. This is that same
00:22:43investment in the future. The UAE only
00:22:47has one that has a territorial problem with Iran.
00:22:50That is, it has a territorial claim against our territorial
00:22:53integrity. Well, this is the UAE. Therefore, it is saying I have no
00:22:57choice but for Iran to lose this war. Now, some people in
00:23:01our country think that if the UAE
00:23:04says, "Well, for example, your prisoners were here for 10 years.
00:23:07Oh, I didn't know you had prisoners. Why didn't you say sooner?"
00:23:11"Let's take the prisoners, release them." If the UAE is so
00:23:15good, why didn't it release them sooner? Why the punches
00:23:18and kicks during this time?
00:23:28It's completely going the other way. What's the point? It's standing on the other side.
00:23:32It has already made its decision. It has done its work. The idea that I would go
00:23:36and talk with Bin Zayed and pull him out of Netanyahu's arms
00:23:39and attract him. Attract him to what? What do we
00:23:42want him to be attracted to? No, now Mearsheimer says, "Doesn't this person have any sense?
00:23:46The person sitting in Abu Dhabi and Dubai doesn't see that, well,
00:23:50with America, which was America, it's like a certain animal stuck
00:23:53in a herd. What should I say in the middle of this?" I mean, I want to say,
00:23:57does it not have worldly wisdom, calculated thinking? Does it not
00:24:00do geopolitical analysis? The region is not like Mr. Mehr is analyzing
00:24:04it. Israel's incompatibility with its neighbors is like a foreign body
00:24:08that is stuck in someone's body after surgery. It simply cannot
00:24:11be connected. Well, the UAE has brought itself to such a situation
00:24:15with all its surrounding countries over the past 30 years,
00:24:18and even beyond the region, in Sudan, in Libya, and in other places,
00:24:22it has done the same. Therefore, it has no choice
00:24:25but to follow this path, because if it wants to abandon the sources of power
00:24:29it has defined for itself, it must abandon them. The UAE thrives
00:24:33on confrontation, because of all this Israel. That is, Israel simply cannot
00:24:36make peace. If it wants to make peace, it shouldn't exist. That's why
00:24:39the UAE and Israel's logic becomes one, and that means
00:24:43Israel becomes the UAE's Israel, or the UAE becomes
00:24:47Israel's second. It doesn't really matter. That's why these two
00:24:50cannot. Mearsheimer is saying that a country, for example, regarding Kuwait, he can say, "Kuwait is good
00:24:54to be friends with both the US and Iran." Well, Kuwait, not the UAE. If
00:24:58it actually wants, if I'm not
00:25:01mistaken, you ultimately say, "Well, if it eventually gets
00:25:04hit by reality and understands it, or wakes up from
00:25:08this state of perhaps numbness and unconsciousness,
00:25:12it's not unlikely to reach this point. So for the short term,
00:25:15we are awake. You know, we also hit the UAE hard
00:25:19during the 40-day war. Well, the issue is, this
00:25:22person has made his decision to go to that side.
00:25:25The war will eventually end with Iran in a position of superiority.
00:25:29Will the UAE change its stance? In your opinion, no.
00:25:32See, it's political life. See, something you should consider about the UAE
00:25:36is the emirs themselves and their rivalry, which I think would require two or three
00:25:40separate programs to explain. Well, first of all,
00:25:44Abu Dhabi is not the same as Sharjah or Dubai.
00:25:47ابوظبی با شارجه با دبی اینا یکی نیست.
00:26:39Ya Ali, get a rhythm with Iranians,
00:26:42get a continuous rhythm,
00:26:45get a continuous passion,
00:26:48hold the flag, hold the flag,
00:26:52hold the strait firmly.
00:26:54بگیریدا.
00:27:32Hold the strait firmly, control the strait,
00:27:36it's our undeniable right,
00:27:39let's take it. The streets
00:27:42are ours, our hand is
00:27:45God's hand. Our enemy is
00:27:48shameless, don't underestimate
00:27:52the enemy.
00:27:52کمگی.
00:28:32Get a rhythm, control the strait,
00:28:36it's our undeniable right,
00:28:39take the strait. The streets
00:28:43are ours, our hand is God's
00:28:46hand. Our enemy is shameless, don't
00:28:49underestimate the enemy. Hold the strait firmly,
00:28:52hold the strait firmly.
00:28:54بگیریم.
00:29:08Turn the sea red with blood, capture the spirit of Muharram.
00:29:11Hold it firmly.
00:29:14Attention, attention! We are
00:29:17always vigilant. No one can
00:29:20repeat it. Hold the strait firmly,
00:29:24hold the strait firmly. Don't
00:29:26let go. Hold the strait firmly,
00:29:30control the strait.
00:30:25Greetings. Top news:
00:30:27Domestic unity
00:30:30and cohesion are the key to Iran's firmness
00:30:33against threats. The President states that with national unity,
00:30:37no enemy is capable of defeating the Iranian nation.
00:30:39نیست.
00:30:44We are powerful together. Let's all support each other.
00:30:47Then we will build an Iran
00:30:51that is powerful, steadfast, and growing in
00:30:55all
00:30:56fields.
00:30:59Warning from the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.