Google Cloud Speech-to-Text API (Chirp) + Gemini 2.5 Flash Non-Thinking. Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00three to four degrees warmer than the average values we
00:00:04had before, a large amount of heat has
00:00:08accumulated in the Pacific where El
00:00:11Nino started, which will affect our weather, but
00:00:15not yet, it will affect us in about
00:00:18three or four months, meaning late
00:00:22autumn, early winter is when El Nino,
00:00:25El Nino will affect Europe, it will first
00:00:28start affecting the Pacific. in Indo,
00:00:32China, Japan, and by the time it moves to America,
00:00:35its effect is gradual, it
00:00:38is, it is a process in the atmosphere that takes place, and what
00:00:42are its effects, for example, when it comes to us, the effects for
00:00:46us will be that it will be warmer, and uh,
00:00:49all numerical models of medium-range
00:00:53and long-range weather forecasts already feel
00:00:56that physical impulse that is coming. from
00:01:00warm air, or from the increase
00:01:03in temperature, which is associated with the increase
00:01:06in temperature due to El Nino, mhm, so we expect that
00:01:10by the end of the year the
00:01:13weather will remain warmer than usual, meaning
00:01:17with temperatures up to 1.5 to 3 degrees
00:01:20higher than what is usual,
00:01:24meaning we can expect a long warm autumn and
00:01:27a mild start to winter regarding temperature, but
00:01:32today's topics, now we move on to regarding precipitation, the models are quite varied, namely
00:01:36the model results, we calculate so-called
00:01:40ensemble forecasts where the same model is run
00:01:4350 times 50 times, but with different
00:01:46initial conditions, mhm, if the initial
00:01:49conditions change, then the model outputs are also different, so
00:01:53then we look at how much deviation there is when
00:01:56something changes in the initial conditions, there is a
00:02:00fairly large deviation in the precipitation system,
00:02:03so the problem is actually in the Mediterranean Sea,
00:02:07we then return to, suddenly from the global, we have to return
00:02:11to a lower scale, as I had a question for you about the Mediterranean, to a lower scale, to a lower
00:02:15scale, namely when you look at the climate overall, then you have more, you have
00:02:19different scales of action that affect the weather
00:02:22here, because what we see as weather is something
00:02:26that in our synoptic dimensions, a one-day forecast, that's it.
00:02:30That's the weather forecast for one to seven days, that's
00:02:33synoptics, above that we already come to
00:02:36a medium-range weather forecast which is valid for about 12
00:02:40days, but there we already have to look at the whole of Europe, the Northern
00:02:43Hemisphere, when we move to climate modeling
00:02:47for periods of six months, then
00:02:51we have to consider the entire Earth globally with all
00:02:54its weather systems that are currently on
00:02:57Earth, and then we simulate how that would
00:03:01unfold over time, what happens with that
00:03:05amount of energy we have in the system. Now the problem with autumn
00:03:09is that the Mediterranean is very
00:03:11warm, a warm Mediterranean can
00:03:14cause uh rapid occurrences of shallow
00:03:18cyclones that occur either in the Gulf of Genoa or
00:03:22occur in the very west of the Mediterranean Sea and quickly move
00:03:26across the Mediterranean towards the east, or there is the
00:03:29formation of shallow cyclones
00:03:32over Northern Italy and they descend along
00:03:35the Adriatic, cyclones are then associated with
00:03:39precipitation here, so that's why there are
00:03:43large oscillations in the forecast of the amount
00:03:46of precipitation itself, meaning we will definitely have
00:03:49precipitation, it will not be extreme, it will be
00:03:53normal, but the question is when and how, so
00:03:56we can expect a pleasant, warm
00:04:00autumn, which can be rainy, which can be
00:04:03how will he locally accompanied by strong tropical
00:04:07downpours of tropical characteristics, which means that in
00:04:1130 minutes up to 30, 40
00:04:15liters of precipitation per square meter falls, so we have
00:04:17then urban floods or
00:04:21other disasters
00:04:24of that character, those are the storms we've been witnessing for the last few years in
00:04:28Zagreb, yes, that's it..." that kind of weather, now
00:04:31for example, this front that is passing over us now will not
00:04:34be a truly typical cold front, but
00:04:38it will be a line of instability that will pass over us, which can
00:04:42also bring thunderstorms in two or three
00:04:45advisors, including waves, but we expect what happened on July 19th
00:04:47two years ago when there was a real,
00:04:51real devastating cold
00:05:00droughts, so we are now witnessing and
00:05:02droughts, given that we don't have enough rainfall,
00:05:06very high temperatures, this segment was
00:05:09also interesting before our conversation for... a
00:05:13streak appears at 60°, rivers are
00:05:15heating up, this is not just a subjective
00:05:19feeling of us humans about the heat, but it is indeed
00:05:22a real situation on the ground. You told me that we
00:05:26don't even have a drought service, how do you,
00:05:29how do you, how do you expect and believe would be the
00:05:32correct way to approach these climate changes
00:05:35which are evidently here, look,
00:05:38last month I think we published on N1
00:05:42Info. "an article which had in
00:05:45its title the most insidious
00:05:48weather phenomenon, and the most insidious weather phenomenon is
00:05:52drought actually, because it starts slowly,
00:05:55gradually, it's very difficult to notice when
00:05:59it started, to say exactly, it started, now the drought has started,
00:06:03no, because drought occurs over a certain period
00:06:06of time, what you mentioned, that is
00:06:09we don't have a system for drought warnings." "
00:06:13at the state level, that should be established, just as
00:06:16we have a system for warning about dangerous
00:06:18weather uh dangerous weather
00:06:22phenomena related to meteo alarm, in the DHMZ meteo alarm
00:06:26we don't have data on drought,
00:06:29meaning that is missing,
00:06:33we are missing one step just to consolidate, to consolidate all
00:06:36the information, you have organizations that deal with
00:06:40the problem of water, these are Croatian waters, you have the
00:06:44Hydrometeorological Institute which also has a hydrological sector that
00:06:47measures water and temperature, water quantity
00:06:51of water, we need to measure groundwater, the quantity and
00:06:54height of groundwater, meaning these are information
00:06:57that needs to be consolidated in one place and monitored and warnings
00:07:01issued for the whole country, because we simply have to
00:07:05start acting in such a way that
00:07:08we prevent drought, we can prevent it by
00:07:11starting to collect water, by collecting,
00:07:14by starting to collect water in reservoirs
00:07:18this autumn, as a reserve,
00:07:22as a reserve for what awaits us
00:07:24next summer, because next summer will not be colder than
00:07:28this one, that's for sure, because this summer, according to all our
00:07:31meteorological forecasts, is perhaps one
00:07:35of the coldest summers until the end of this
00:07:37century, what does that mean, what
00:07:41does it mean that next one will be warmer, every
00:07:45next one even warmer, the next one even warmer, that's it,
00:07:48unfortunately the forecast is such, and what does that mean
00:07:51for each of us, for life, for industry, for
00:07:55agriculture, for my your life outside
00:07:58animals, plants, it means
00:08:02that hmm it's difficult, it's difficult
00:08:05to find a clear answer,
00:08:08the first answer is that we are uh
00:08:11creatures that... are adaptable, mhm, we will adapt
00:08:15in any way, the human race will adapt,
00:08:18however, agriculture and plants
00:08:21adapt much more slowly to changes
00:08:25in weather, that's for example one, one, one of the things we
00:08:29need to understand, that we already need to
00:08:32bring water to watering holes for wild
00:08:34animals, because if we don't do that, a part of
00:08:37uh wild animals in our
00:08:40forests will simply... die of
00:08:43thirst,
00:08:46no, no, it looks, it looks horrible, but, but, but look
00:08:49at it this way, even the next, the first major influx
00:08:53of precipitation will be in 10 to 15
00:08:56days, but until those 10 to 15 days we have to
00:09:00survive with puddles that evaporate
00:09:03every moment, what puddles, rivers have dried up, rivers have
00:09:07dried up, not puddles, no, so we need, we need to think
00:09:11that way. The second thing is, the drying
00:09:14of the roots of
00:09:17trees has started, mhm, so trees no longer have
00:09:20enough groundwater that they draw with their
00:09:24root system, trees are drying up,
00:09:28with the drying of trees
00:09:31the danger of fires is becoming greater and
00:09:34greater, our fire danger
00:09:37index was high two months ago
00:09:41on the Adriatic. Now it's high throughout
00:09:44Croatia, which means that
00:09:47some foolishly fired signal flare at
00:09:51some wedding in Slavonia can also cause a fire
00:09:54like the one we recently had on Korčula,
00:09:58and then preparing and
00:10:02extinguishing that fire is much harder than down in Dalmatia, because
00:10:05the Canadairs don't have anywhere to take water from,
00:10:08meaning the period while the aircraft is filling
00:10:11and emptying is much longer,
00:10:14so extensive preparations will be needed, furthermore,
00:10:17in normal, normal life, we all
00:10:21increasingly use air conditioners, yes, you can, you can
00:10:24make it air-conditioned. But that air conditioner expels heat outwards,
00:10:26with air conditioning we are
00:10:30actually raising the temperature of cities, a pile
00:10:34of air conditioners that release heat outwards,
00:10:37in rooms we keep the temperature at about
00:10:4123, 24 degrees, outside we have raised
00:10:44the temperature from that air conditioner by 5 to
00:10:486 degrees, no, so we are
00:10:51ourselves harming ourselves
00:10:54in a way. mm, the problem related to
00:10:58drought is related to the problem of glaciers,
00:11:01we in, we had glaciers in the Balkans,
00:11:04we had a glacier on Triglav, it's gone,
00:11:07we had a glacier on Durmitor, it's gone,
00:11:11it melted, you have ice caves on
00:11:15Velebit, in which the ice is reduced only to
00:11:18traces,
00:11:20in the Alps.
00:11:23glaciers have retreated, but, that's not, it's not, it's not about
00:11:27those glaciers retreating now, but it's about those glaciers
00:11:31supplying rivers with water and
00:11:34now if it rains
00:11:36in Schwarzwald, the level
00:11:39and water level of the Dudava
00:11:42will improve or rise only in about 10
00:11:46days, but that's if a real rain falls,
00:11:49with large amounts of precipitation, we currently
00:11:53have a drought that is...
00:11:56"Precipitation at zero in Slavonia for the last month
00:12:22optimism boils down to the fact that we have to..." adapt and
00:12:26adapt as soon as possible and adapt as well
00:12:29as possible, we have to start saving water, that's one
00:12:33of the measures we have to take, we have to start,
00:12:36we won't talk about CO2 and CO2 emissions into the atmosphere,
00:12:39because no matter how much we save here, on the other side, on the battlefield,
00:12:43on some battlefield, they emit twice as much CO2 into
00:12:46the atmosphere, we have to be careful about fires, because fires
00:12:50tremendously uh contribute to the increase
00:12:53of CO2 and... particles in the atmosphere
00:12:56and what's even more important about
00:13:00that, after a big fire, that
00:13:03burned area remains black, it remains dark,
00:13:06which leads to even greater heating of that area
00:13:09and then when it rains on that, then the rain just
00:13:13washes away the top layer, but it washes away the top layer
00:13:16of soil, not just the ash that remained, but the soil as well, so
00:13:20we are actually turning uh
00:13:23forest areas into barren land, into
00:13:26wasteland, that's, that's one
00:13:29problem, but uh, I think that
00:13:33we will have pressure and uh,
00:13:36from countries that are located, that were located in the Sahel, meaning
00:13:40in the, in the area of uh, desert
00:13:44climate, that people will simply start migrating from those
00:13:48areas northwards, so we also have
00:13:50migration, general migration of population on Earth, not
00:13:54just. "not just here, because
00:13:57now you already have migration that is happening, summer migration, this
00:14:01tourist one, which no longer goes to the Adriatic, but goes to
00:14:04the Baltic, because the Baltic has become
00:14:47this: Washington and Tehran continue
00:14:51negotiations, but Donald Trump simultaneously threatens again
00:14:54with strong..." attacks if an agreement is not reached. At the same time,
00:14:58Israel continues its attacks on Gaza, stating that it will remain
00:15:01there until Hamas is
00:15:03disarmed.
00:15:05The US and Ukraine are negotiating the production of missile parts for Patriot
00:15:09systems, while Russian attacks further strain Ukraine's
00:15:12air defense. Simultaneously, residents are being evacuated from
00:15:16the east of the country due to the approaching Russian
00:15:19forces.
00:15:21In recent days, multi-hour columns towards Montenegro. Once again
00:15:25blocked the far south of Croatia and created problems for both
00:15:29tourists and the local population. We talk with the mayor
00:15:32of Konavle municipality about blocking crowds,
00:15:35the season, prices and whether Croatian competitiveness is being killed.
00:15:57Enjoy the flavors of Asia at a Lidl price. From
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00:16:42domestic mini watermelon, excellent 55 cents and
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00:16:49always on sale,
00:17:27the USA and Iran, these renewed new
00:17:30negotiations,
00:17:33new blockades, questions about what will happen with the Strait
00:17:36of Hormuz. "Donald Trump announced that they
00:17:39held day-long negotiations with
00:17:43the Iranians, but again, obviously in his own style, he said
00:17:46and threatened, there will be, there will be retaliation -
00:17:50there will be strong attacks on Iran if an agreement is
00:17:54not reached, what is the current situation
00:17:57regarding negotiations, Iran could get the right to control
00:18:00ships entering
00:18:04the Persian Gulf.
00:18:08What we currently know is that the Iranians are holding
00:18:11negotiations with Oman, not with the Americans,
00:18:14because as the American president says, if there isn't
00:18:18something, there will be something, this practically means that
00:18:22uh he uh
00:18:25imagines that those negotiations are taking place, because as we know, in the past few
00:18:29weeks, uh there have been no significant contacts
00:18:32between the two delegations
00:18:35directly. Qatar a few days ago... Majed Al-Ansari
00:18:38and their Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson announced that they had
00:18:42joined all of this, this practically means that
00:18:45uh a more serious mediator had to get involved in
00:18:49the negotiations to try to reach a solution, because Pakistan did not
00:18:53succeed, mm everything else
00:18:56didn't work for the simple reason that what you said a moment
00:18:59ago, he constantly threatens,
00:19:02constantly makes new demands, new
00:19:06threats, constantly... has a change of mind, no one
00:19:09is sure anymore whether something agreed upon today will still
00:19:13be in force this afternoon, so what the American
00:19:17president is doing is quite tiresome,
00:19:20because I will remind our viewers that
00:19:24at the beginning of the war, that is, at the end of February,
00:19:27he said it would last four to six
00:19:31weeks, here we are in the sixth month of this
00:19:34war and there is no end in sight, the only thing
00:19:38we got in the past few hours as some
00:19:41concrete information is that Iran and Oman discussed those
00:19:45routes, how this
00:19:48passage through Hormuz will happen, but that still has
00:19:51many problems within itself because uh
00:19:55some ask what if those, I don't know,
00:19:59transit tariffs or customs or some kind of road toll, let me call it that,
00:20:03are introduced, that will create additional costs
00:20:06for people who do business with the Gulf
00:20:09region and that will naturally have an effect on
00:20:13the global community, so this problem with the
00:20:17American administration has been going on for too long and I think
00:20:20that if he wants to reach some agreement
00:20:24he should create a serious negotiating team that would then go
00:20:27and talk to partners in
00:20:31the Gulf region and beyond to finally find a
00:20:47asked for some time and... and
00:20:50in recent days even more is the question
00:20:54how much this war is exhausting primarily
00:20:57the United States, not so much
00:20:59Iran uh how much longer this war could
00:21:03last and what is being asked is how much it will
00:21:07harm mm the US economy,
00:21:10that is, are there sufficient stocks
00:21:13of ammunition, they may not even exist, but how much money will
00:21:17then go into creating them and so that
00:21:21something like that can be acquired to continue
00:21:23the war? You are absolutely right, according to
00:21:27the latest information published by colleagues from
00:21:30CNN and other American media, their supplies are
00:21:33currently reduced by approximately
00:21:3780%. Especially when it comes to
00:21:39missile interceptors. What were the Iranians practically doing here?
00:21:43The Iranians were firing those missiles to force
00:21:47the Americans to defend themselves, that is, to defend their allies in
00:21:50the Gulf region. The second thing that is very
00:21:54difficult for the American president at this
00:21:56moment is that none of
00:22:00those attacks led to what he was
00:22:04talking about, that they were wiped off the face of the earth, that they were destroyed, that they cannot
00:22:07defend themselves, that they cannot attack, and so on and so forth. They still
00:22:11have uh considerable supplies, certain
00:22:14things, as we learned from intelligence data, reports
00:22:17from our colleagues worldwide. have already
00:22:21uh replenished supplies, produced them in their own
00:22:24production, I have already said, I think in our Zagreb program
00:22:27and our Sarajevo program countless times that for example
00:22:31Shahed 136 drones that Russia uses in
00:22:35Ukraine, today are simply transferred
00:22:38across the border from Russia from factories that have
00:22:41uh a license for production
00:22:44they are given to the Iranians, the Iranians
00:22:47continue to use them normally, they saw in the Gulf region that the Iranians
00:22:51mostly used drones for attacks, meaning
00:22:55they did not use conventional
00:22:57weapons, you are also absolutely right when you say that
00:23:01the American economy will be threatened, yes, it will be threatened
00:23:04and it will be severely threatened and enormous financial resources
00:23:07will have to be invested, especially from
00:23:10the Pentagon's budget, I will remind you that
00:23:14the Congress is currently debating a new military
00:23:18budget that should amount to more.
00:23:20More than 1.8 trillion US dollars, or more
00:23:24than 1,800 billion US dollars that
00:23:28the Pentagon is currently asking Congress
00:23:31to allocate, of course, the question will then arise
00:23:35among Americans, especially among voters who will
00:23:38vote in November this year in the congressional elections, well,
00:23:42why are we spending so much money when Trump promised us that we will
00:23:46no longer wage endless wars, that we will not
00:23:49interfere in what is happening in the Middle East, so this whole
00:23:53situation simply causes enormous damage and one
00:23:57of the elements that are indirectly
00:24:00or directly related to what is happening
00:24:04in the Middle East is the price of oil at
00:24:07American pumps, not on the global market, but at
00:24:10American pumps where Americans now say, well, we didn't vote for this,
00:24:14we voted for a barrel to be under two dollars, now
00:24:18a barrel is uh...
00:24:203.5, in fact, a gallon to be under
00:24:24two dollars, now it's $4.55
00:24:27cents on average, so Americans are feeling
00:24:30the whole of this uh
00:24:33gambling adventure that
00:24:36Trump got into, which he claimed would end very
00:24:40quickly, just as he said the war in Ukraine would end in 24
00:24:44hours, well, this war didn't end as quickly as he
00:24:47said other wars would,
00:24:50the question arises
00:24:53be, let's say, punished
00:24:57in the US itself, we now have
00:25:00in the past two days this first
00:25:04round of elections for for Congress, these primaries
00:25:08were held, we already saw some unexpected
00:25:11victories and successes of some Democratic
00:25:15candidates, and if we now consider all of this
00:25:19in the story we are talking about
00:25:23the American attack and aggression against Iran which went
00:25:27along with Israel, here is also an interesting question of AIPAC, that is
00:25:30this American Israeli association
00:25:34which invested millions,
00:25:3760 million in one case of sponsoring
00:25:40going against the candidates who now seem to have succeeded
00:25:44in winning the elections, what does that
00:25:47also tell us about some rifts? in American
00:25:50society, or maybe that is the punishment for these American
00:25:54policies?
00:25:57Yes, what you are talking about regarding Democrats, Michigan is very
00:26:01interesting there. That's where AIPAC invested
00:26:04huge financial resources, a total of 60 million
00:26:08was spent in the fight against Abdel El Said, 30
00:26:11million, 30 million it's the APEC
00:26:15that invested, it's very interesting, one
00:26:17primary election, meaning it's purely within the Democrats to
00:26:21choose who their candidate will be, it's not even the main elections that
00:26:25are coming in November. A huge amount of money has been spent,
00:26:29and that's precisely the struggle that is being waged with... how should I
00:26:32say, with with mm
00:26:36Democrats regarding their internal, so to speak,
00:26:39arrangement, because those progressive candidates like Alexandria
00:26:43Ocasio-Cortez are now coming more and more
00:26:46onto the scene, and if voters go
00:26:49with them, we see that Abdul El-Sayed won in
00:26:53Michigan against someone who was an establishment candidate,
00:26:56then that means there will be punishment for both sides
00:27:00both because of Gaza and because of what is now happening with the Middle
00:27:04East. In Trump's case, if he loses
00:27:07one of the two houses of the American Congress, that means investigations will begin,
00:27:10questions will be asked, and
00:27:13two years of his term
00:27:16will practically be spent with Democrats
00:27:19having the opportunity 24/7
00:27:23to constantly investigate everything he did and all the moves he
00:27:27made, and that will create huge problems for him and
00:27:30his administration if... By chance, El-Sayed's
00:27:34victory in these primaries indicates that there is a possibility that
00:27:37he will become the first Muslim senator in
00:27:40the United States in the history of the United States. Then that could
00:27:44mean he will lose both houses of the American Congress, and only then
00:27:47will he be in trouble, because then he will be what
00:27:50Americans call a Lame Duck President, meaning a president who
00:27:54can do absolutely nothing because the Democrats will not let him
00:27:58even adopt a uh, a letter
00:28:01of congratulations. To put it colloquially, if he wants to send
00:28:05a letter of congratulations to someone and he needs congressional approval for it, the
00:28:08Democrats will not uh, approve it, they will simply
00:28:12block him in everything, and everything he
00:28:15promised to American voters who supported him will
00:28:19fail in Congress. Also,
00:28:22I must say that people who
00:28:25voted for him in the last elections simply
00:28:28say, "We were deeply disappointed and we made
00:28:32a huge mistake voting for him at this
00:28:35moment," meaning in the elections when he won the presidential
00:28:39elections. So now it's part of that whole, shall
00:28:41we say, MAGA scene, the scene of those who
00:28:45were, who largely supported
00:28:48Trump's rhetoric and politics, for example, Tucker
00:28:51Carlson, our colleague, is now completely changing
00:28:54his tune. So, a lot is happening.
00:28:58Do you think that this war against Iran and actually this
00:29:02Israeli dragging of Washington into this entire
00:29:06story with all these repercussions you
00:29:09mentioned, is this perhaps that one
00:29:13moment that could
00:29:16really punish him, because people are now, you
00:29:20mentioned people who voted, we also have people here who financed his
00:29:24campaign who are no longer all that thrilled with what the
00:29:28Trump administration is doing? On the other
00:29:31hand, you can see... that the results of this
00:29:34action could actually most harm
00:29:37the USA? Yes, absolutely
00:29:41right, although when it comes to Tucker Carlson, a certain group
00:29:45of people who come from that MAGA sector, I wouldn't always take
00:29:48at full
00:29:51uh, as Americans say, face value. I wouldn't
00:29:55immediately take everything they say with complete
00:29:58sincerity and I wouldn't fully trust them. But it shows the trends
00:30:02that they have started washing their hands of him and repenting
00:30:06for everything they did. But something that is very interesting,
00:30:10Maggie Haberman, who recently wrote a book with Jonathan
00:30:13Swan called "Regime Change," which
00:30:16describes the first year of Trump's mandate and what happened
00:30:19at the beginning of
00:30:22this war with
00:30:25Iran, says that the moment Benjamin
00:30:29Netanyahu came to the White House in the situation
00:30:32room, and when he presented
00:30:35uh, the idea of how to go into this
00:30:39war, Maggie says the head of the CIA, the head of the State
00:30:42Department, uh, numerous other
00:30:47military segments from the Pentagon simply said,
00:30:51"No, what he is presenting to you, this idea he
00:30:54is presenting, this will not work, this will not go over well." However,
00:30:58Trump for some reason decided to go with that...