Serbia: N1 Serbia

20261012 18:00 UTC · 00:30:59 · 510 transcript segments · GDELT Visual Explorer · plain-text transcript · Event Map

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Transcript

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00:00:081400%, and
00:00:26Another winter is at the door. The prices of oil,
00:00:29gas, fuel on the world market, and then everything
00:00:32else are on an upward trend. Refineries are in flames in Russia and the
00:00:36Middle East, then various bans on the export of diesel and other
00:00:39energy sources, then agreements on the release of reserves
00:00:42or the sale of fuel, then further blocked Strait of Hormuz. All
00:00:46this has led to a prolonged energy crisis and the need for
00:00:50adaptation measures. Can the
00:00:53measures planned by the United States and Europe reduce the
00:00:57price of fuel, for example? How much... is actually the economic
00:01:01and political price of energy instability
00:01:05caused by political decisions? How is
00:01:08Europe dealing with the rising energy prices, and what awaits
00:01:12Serbia and why? You are watching Global Focus. I am
00:01:15Aleksandra
00:01:16Gotfrua.
00:01:21The price of Brent crude oil on the world market this Monday,
00:01:25October 12, is trading at 106 dollars,
00:01:29and that's for December contracts. What led to this?
00:01:32This is a small and short overview of very
00:01:35recent global events, events of the last three
00:01:39days that affected the price of oil.
00:01:43Is there any energy truce between Russia and Ukraine? US President
00:01:47Donald Trump claims that it was all
00:01:50only them. The last elections, especially in agreed that Ukraine must immediately stop shelling Russian
00:01:52refineries, claiming that Ukraine
00:01:56is generating the primary rise in fuel prices on the world and even American market.
00:02:01And I told him, do whatever you want, but don't shell refineries.
00:02:04There are plenty of targets, don't shell refineries. But he went and
00:02:08shelled them, and he must not affect our farmers and
00:02:11ranchers like that. He must not affect the rest of the world like that. He better
00:02:15stop. Ukraine, which, as Zelenskiy
00:02:19claims, learned about the energy truce agreement with Russia
00:02:23from Trump's announcement, says that it will respect it if Russia
00:02:26stops shelling its power plants.
00:02:30And immediately after the announcement, Russia deliberately shelled the power plant in
00:02:34Kharkiv, further damaging our energy system. It is clear that
00:02:38Putin does not read Trud
00:02:39Social.
00:02:42Contacts are ongoing, as soon as we have anything on that matter,
00:02:46you will be informed. Trump's announcement about an energy truce
00:02:49that does not exist, followed the agreement between Moscow and
00:02:52Washington. And by the way, Russia has agreed to
00:02:56send us millions and millions of barrels of its diesel oil.
00:03:00That's what we need, thank you.
00:03:04In order to be able to export its diesel, which is already in short supply, Russia temporarily
00:03:08lifted its own ban, but the news in Russia looked
00:03:11different.
00:03:13News that just arrived. The US has temporarily exempted Russian diesel
00:03:17for the global market from US sanctions. The document is dated
00:03:21October 9, 2026, and is valid until April 7,
00:03:252027.
00:03:28And the temporary drop in oil prices on the world market that same day
00:03:31was also influenced by Trump's statement that he would not attack Iran before the elections in
00:03:35November, but that was short-lived. In the Middle East,
00:03:38a war is underway in Yemen between government forces and rebel Houthis.
00:03:42Yemeni Houthis have been attacking Saudi Arabia since July of this year.
00:03:46In the latest wave, several airports, a gas plant, and a
00:03:49refinery were targeted. And so, the world price of oil, gas,
00:03:52and then fuel, is affected by the unresolved Iranian war,
00:03:56the constant threat of new instability in the region that produces
00:04:001/3 of the world's
00:04:01oil.
00:04:05So, what is the energy situation in Europe
00:04:08and the European Union, which Serbia declaratively strives for? On video
00:04:12call is Dr. Janez Kopač,
00:04:15who was the director of the Energy Community Secretariat,
00:04:19Minister of Environment and Energy in Slovenia. He is certainly one of
00:04:22the internationally renowned and recognized experts in energy
00:04:25policy. Mr. Kopač, thank you for speaking to
00:04:29N1. "What are the effects of the war in the
00:04:32Middle East and the conflicts related to it on energy
00:04:36prices in the countries of the European Union? Can a further
00:04:39increase be expected? What are your expectations for this
00:04:42winter? Good
00:04:44evening, everyone. The impact
00:04:48of all that you mentioned is significant,
00:04:52primarily on the price of gas
00:04:53protect consumers, that and oil. From February to August of this year, prices
00:04:57increased by about 90%.
00:05:00But the price of electricity increased
00:05:03by only about 23%. That's a lot, but
00:05:07still much less than in 2022, when
00:05:10Russia attacked Ukraine. Then, you may remember,
00:05:14prices increased for gas prices
00:05:17by 14 times, meaning
00:05:21electricity prices by 600%.
00:05:24Today's price increase is serious, but the European
00:05:28system is much more resilient today than it was then
00:05:30and
00:05:33uh, primarily there are many more renewable energy
00:05:36sources. We're talking about electricity.
00:05:39The import of oil and gas is much
00:05:43more diversified than it was in 2022.
00:05:47For winter, I expect volatile prices,
00:05:50meaning up and down. New jumps
00:05:53are possible, but there won't be a crisis like in
00:05:572022.
00:05:59Uh, for gas prices, a lot depends on the temperature.
00:06:03Storage in Europe is currently only 70% full
00:06:06on average. That's much less than in previous
00:06:10years when they were 10%
00:06:13full. If the winter is harsh, then there will be
00:06:17significant jumps, I'm talking about gas. If it's
00:06:20mild, we'll get through it with where we are approximately now.
00:06:24And does the fact that Ukraine is shelling Russian
00:06:27refineries have an impact, as US President Donald Trump claims? He
00:06:31cites it as the main, main reason why fuel prices
00:06:35have risen, and how do you evaluate this agreement between the US and
00:06:38Russia for Russia to release certain
00:06:40quantities of diesel and sell it to America and
00:06:44others? First of all, it's a
00:06:48pre-election let's say
00:06:52balloon, Russia doesn't have diesel to
00:06:55export currently, or it only has some small
00:06:59quantities. What's in that agreement between Trump and
00:07:03Putin, 300,000 tons
00:07:05in October, that's
00:07:09for maybe two or three days of consumption in the US
00:07:12states and doesn't have much impact on their
00:07:15market. Uh, otherwise, that
00:07:19shelling of Russian refineries by Ukraine has
00:07:22an impact, but much, much smaller than the impact of
00:07:26the American attack on Iran
00:07:29and everything that is happening there. Russia used to be a big exporter
00:07:32of gasoline and diesel, but it itself
00:07:36banned exports because it doesn't have enough due to those
00:07:39attacks. The European Union imports
00:07:42gasoline and diesel from Russia for some time now, but the prices
00:07:46are global, so the shortage in markets is reflected,
00:07:50reflected everywhere. When Russian
00:07:53and Arab oil, i.e. derivatives, disappear from the market, then consumers
00:07:57worldwide compete for the remaining
00:08:00quantities, so the price also increases in Europe and in the
00:08:03United States, even though they
00:08:06are exporters. Uh, that hurts
00:08:10the American president.
00:08:12Uh, primarily because uh,
00:08:16because there are elections there in two weeks,
00:08:20but we, or rather Americans, pay for it with money,
00:08:23unfortunately, Ukrainians have to pay with blood. Mm-hmm.
00:08:27You say it affects everyone, however, those economic effects of global
00:08:30events such as this war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, so
00:08:34the general shortage of energy sources,
00:08:37uh, are not the same for
00:08:41everyone. Some countries are, it seems, more resilient, so the rise in prices
00:08:44there is, let's say,
00:08:45more controlled. How is that
00:08:48explained? Countries have completely different energy systems. Some
00:08:52depend more on gas, some on imports. Others have
00:08:55hydropower, nuclear power plants, a lot of sun and
00:08:58wind, or developed storage
00:09:01systems. Let me give an example from the region.
00:09:05Bulgaria, for example, has installed an incredible 5.5
00:09:08GW of batteries in the past two years.
00:09:13They are now the European champions in that. Before that,
00:09:17their electricity prices were
00:09:2021% above the European
00:09:23average. Today, they are only
00:09:279%. Flexibility helps
00:09:31so much in resilience, but of course, you have to invest in
00:09:34it. Another case, Finland, which currently has
00:09:38the lowest electricity prices in Europe, achieved this
00:09:42thanks to a good combination of hydropower,
00:09:45nuclear energy, wind, and flexible consumption and
00:09:48so on. It can vary from country to country. Uh,
00:09:51of course, as far as gas
00:09:55and oil are concerned, we are all dependent on
00:09:58imports. Nothing helps there. But if
00:10:01more consumption shifts to electricity and
00:10:05the consumption of oil and oil
00:10:07derivatives decreases, then of course the country is
00:10:11more resilient. Mm-hmm. And how do you assess the situation in the Balkans? You mentioned
00:10:14Bulgaria, and other countries, here, in terms of energy
00:10:18stability.
00:10:21The Balkans are more resilient today than a few years ago, but
00:10:25they are still vulnerable. We have great potential
00:10:28for hydropower, sun, wind, but we are lagging behind in grids, in
00:10:32storage, in system flexibility,
00:10:35and
00:10:38we need to, of course, invest in grids,
00:10:41cross-border interconnections, in batteries, smart meters,
00:10:44in flexible consumption and so on.
00:10:48Of course, we need to adopt unpleasant
00:10:51reforms, because someone has to pay for it all.
00:10:55Uh, for example, reforms of distribution tariffs, reforms related to
00:10:59market liberalization and so on. In
00:11:02short, reforms that politicians,
00:11:06if possible, constantly postpone, because they are
00:11:10unpopular, but some of them are
00:11:13very significant for protection against the next
00:11:17geopolitical shock, which will surely
00:11:20come again, because we see
00:11:23how the world has gone crazy.
00:11:26Tell me, in this crazy world, you say that politicians
00:11:29postpone, delay reforms that are
00:11:33unpopular but necessary so that the next shocks
00:11:37do not have such effects. And how does
00:11:40this energy crisis then affect the political
00:11:44behavior of the inhabitants of the European Union, because I suppose
00:11:47they don't postpone them for nothing, so to
00:11:51speak.
00:11:54First of all, all governments want to reduce
00:11:57the impact
00:11:59of that big increase, so they spend a lot of
00:12:03budget money on
00:12:06various subsidies and so on.
00:12:09Of course,
00:12:12the direct impact is that populism is even
00:12:16more popular, but that
00:12:18is not
00:12:21a solution in the long run. In the
00:12:25long run, the good solution
00:12:29is simply to rely more on your
00:12:32own strength, uh, meaning to be
00:12:36more independent, uh, and
00:12:39uh, of course, we are in a world
00:12:42of electrification, so I expect that
00:12:46more and more energy consumption will shift to
00:12:49electricity, and that will reduce
00:12:52the impact of oil and gas, and that would
00:12:56be a longer-term strategy for the European Union.
00:12:59So, alternative energy sources. There is this
00:13:03situation with diesel, that Trump first said he would
00:13:07ban diesel exports, actually he pressured
00:13:10the member states of the European Union to
00:13:14release their strategic reserves. If and
00:13:18when that happens, what are the quantities that would actually be needed to
00:13:21significantly reduce the price
00:13:25of diesel, so that the consumer in Europe could
00:13:28feel it?
00:13:32The European Union, or rather the member states
00:13:34that coordinate oil
00:13:38reserves within the International Energy Agency,
00:13:42have agreed uh uh
00:13:46to uh release
00:13:49about 100 million
00:13:52tons of diesel, or other
00:13:56derivatives, and that is a quantity that
00:13:59can stabilize the market somewhat, but
00:14:03that will only last for
00:14:07a few weeks, maybe. When that
00:14:09is consumed, and if all these crises do not subside,
00:14:13primarily in the Arabian Peninsula, i.e. in
00:14:17Iran, uh,
00:14:20we will still be in a very difficult situation.
00:14:24Mr. Kopač, thank you very much for speaking to
00:14:27N1. Thank you for the invitation
00:14:31and good, good evening. Thank
00:14:33you. We will now take a short break, and then we will hear about the situation in the largest economy
00:14:37of the European Union, in Germany.
00:14:40I was reading the other day
00:14:45that Novi Sad will soon have almost 500
00:14:48open construction sites.
00:14:51Novi Sad, in that "Yugoslavia", had
00:14:55the unofficial, perhaps even official name that it was a city
00:14:59made for people.
00:15:01For whom is Novi Sad made today?
00:15:15You have to fight with urban planners to explain to them why
00:15:18greenery is
00:15:20important.
00:15:25Election program on N1. Presentation of election lists
00:15:28on Tuesdays and Wednesdays from 8 PM on N1.
00:15:31Tuesday, October 13. In a conversation with Sanja Sovralić,
00:15:35the election list Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians and Pastor
00:15:38will be presented by Elvira Kovač.
00:16:25You are watching Global Focus. The largest economy in the European Union, Germany, is experiencing one of
00:16:29the biggest effects of geopolitical events, one of the biggest inflations in
00:16:32the energy sector. About how this affects
00:16:36Germans, I'm talking to Deutsche Welle journalist Srećko
00:16:40Matić. Srećko, thank you very much for being with us tonight. So,
00:16:44Germany is at the top of the EU countries in terms of energy price increases.
00:16:48How is this explained in Germany? What are the causes of price
00:16:51increases?
00:16:53Well, one of the main causes of price increases is, of course, geopolitical
00:16:57turbulence, wars, and crises that practically
00:17:00follow one another in recent months and years, but that is
00:17:04only one of the reasons. Many say that the war in Ukraine is to blame.
00:17:08Others say that the war against Iran, or rather
00:17:11the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is to blame, but a big role in all
00:17:15this is also played by the state, i.e., state
00:17:17regulation. Let me briefly explain this with two examples
00:17:21that are close to each of us as consumers, as citizens.
00:17:25These are electricity prices on one hand, and on the other hand, fuel prices, i.e.,
00:17:28gasoline and diesel. When it comes to electricity price formation, it is practically
00:17:32the highest in Germany, maybe a little lower in Ireland,
00:17:36on average in recent months. 37 to 40 cents. How is it
00:17:39formed? Distribution is approximately 30%,
00:17:43taxes and duties to the state are 30 to 35%, the
00:17:46rest is the profit of the one who sells, but the German
00:17:50peculiarity in all this is the way that price is actually
00:17:53formed, why it is high in Germany and lower elsewhere.
00:17:56This is the merit order principle, which is specific to
00:18:00Germany. This means that in Germany, the price of electricity on the exchange is determined by the price
00:18:03of electricity from the most expensive power plant in which a kilowatt of electricity
00:18:07is produced that day. Due to the war in Ukraine,
00:18:10i.e., the lack of cheaper Russian
00:18:13gas, when it was necessary, when there was no sun, when there was no wind, when
00:18:17there were no renewable sources, it was necessary to use those expensive
00:18:21power plants that use gas, so the
00:18:24electricity was, of course, quite expensive. As for diesel and gasoline,
00:18:27the state earns the most from taxes,
00:18:30uh, CO2 emissions, and various
00:18:33other duties, and the situation on the market is not overly
00:18:37transparent, observers say. It is much simpler, much
00:18:40better done, for example, in neighboring Luxembourg, where there is state
00:18:44regulation and price limits, maximum prices for diesel and
00:18:47gasoline, and there, of course, the price of fuel is lower than in Germany.
00:18:51And how do citizens react to this, how does all this affect the daily life
00:18:54of citizens? I see that you are standing in front of a gas station, for
00:18:58example. Yes, and I had to move away a little,
00:19:01Aleksandra, because the situation has been quite tense in recent months. It's even difficult to
00:19:05get permission to stand in the area of the gas station
00:19:08itself and talk to people and film, so I had to move away a little,
00:19:12but I hope you can see the price. So, currently, diesel costs
00:19:152.24 euros, super 95,
00:19:182.20 euros. So, quite expensive. What does that
00:19:22mean for citizens, for consumers? Higher living costs, they drive
00:19:26less, they drive slower, say observers of the
00:19:30traffic situation. They are increasingly switching to public transport, using
00:19:33the so-called "joychant ticket," 63 euros per month for
00:19:36using practically all transport in the entire
00:19:39country. They are tightening their belts, as the people would say. So, luxury
00:19:43food, drinks, going to restaurants, all that is reduced to a
00:19:46minimum. And an interesting effect is, in addition to all that,
00:19:49Aleksandra, when it gets dark for someone, it gets light for someone else.
00:19:53Due to these high fossil fuel prices, in September,
00:19:56the sale of electric cars in Germany increased sharply.
00:19:59It practically doubled compared to
00:20:03September last year. In September of this year, every
00:20:06third newly registered vehicle in Germany was actually
00:20:10an electric vehicle. There are consequences, of course, in the economy,
00:20:13existential problems for freight forwarders, problems in
00:20:17agriculture, in food production, and all of this, of course, consequently
00:20:20affects the price we pay in supermarkets when
00:20:24we want to buy, of course, food items. Are
00:20:27any measures being taken to
00:20:31industry, those freight forwarders? What steps is Germany taking
00:20:34to contribute to reducing the price of
00:20:38diesel in general?
00:20:41Well, some measures are being taken, some are planned,
00:20:45One of the measures from the category of somewhat slapstick, which actually
00:20:48proves how complicated this German bureaucracy was, was the idea to
00:20:52help citizens directly with money, those who are
00:20:56most burdened by the prices, high energy prices,
00:20:59especially fuel prices. For example, those who have lower salaries get 100 euros, those with
00:21:03average salaries get 50, those who earn a little better get zero euros. However, the problem is
00:21:06that the state does not have the bank account numbers of its citizens.
00:21:10It knows only about one in five well enough to be able to directly
00:21:14transfer money to their account. But the government is under pressure, of course, from major
00:21:18political turbulence and changes on the domestic political scene,
00:21:21pressure on the federal government, and has decided to finally do something. From October 1st until the end of
00:21:25this year, the government has decided to introduce
00:21:29a lower tax rate on energy sources, what in Serbia, it seems to me,
00:21:33is called excise duties. Uh, that means that consequently
00:21:36the price of fuel per liter will be 17
00:21:40cents cheaper. From January 1st next year, the federal government plans
00:21:44to introduce a cap on the price of fuel, meaning per liter,
00:21:47exactly what they have been doing in Luxembourg for some time, quite
00:21:51successfully. One of the rules that has been introduced in recent months, but hasn't really
00:21:55yielded any results, is, for example, that at such gas
00:21:58stations, only at 12 o'clock, precisely at
00:22:01noon, can the price of fuel be increased, meaning only once a day,
00:22:05so that consumers can better plan when
00:22:08they go to fill up fuel. The consequence of all this, especially in these
00:22:12border areas, is so-called "tank tourism",
00:22:15Aleksandra. This means that people from Germany who live in Germany prefer
00:22:19to go to Poland or other countries to fill up
00:22:22their tank. Yes, such excursions are well-known
00:22:26in these areas. And how do these economic conditions,
00:22:29or rather misfortunes, spill over into the political choices of Germans? Is that
00:22:33one of the keys to the rise of Alternative for
00:22:36Germany? And not
00:22:40eastern Germany, which we also followed as
00:22:43Deutsche Welle, for example in Saxony and Anhalt, some parties,
00:22:47not only Alternative for Germany, but also, for example, BSV, the Alliance.
00:22:50Wagenknecht, precisely through their huge jumbo billboards,
00:22:54called on citizens to vote for them, because they are, as they say, the ones
00:22:57who will, with their policy, enable the return of those lower
00:23:01energy prices. And how would they achieve this? One of
00:23:04their saving solutions, they say, is to start
00:23:08importing gas from Russia again, to stop
00:23:11financing Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression.
00:23:15With such results they achieved, with such actually
00:23:18marketing campaigns, they achieved quite good results. AfD, for example,
00:23:22in those elections alone, achieved almost uh, an absolute
00:23:25majority and is now in a situation to form a government precisely with
00:23:29BSV. Pressure on Friedrich Merz's government has also increased, among other things,
00:23:33due to his poor economic policy,
00:23:36consequently and due to the increase in financial
00:23:38burden for citizens in Germany, a country that is actually
00:23:42mobile, whose prosperity, whose economy depends on citizens being
00:23:45mobile, on them traveling several hundred kilometers to
00:23:49their workplace. It precisely depends on how much fuel will
00:23:53cost at such gas stations, and that is why the government is under
00:23:56pressure, of course, from the increased financial burden on citizens, and on the
00:24:00other hand, from the poor election results in the past
00:24:03state elections, decided to finally act,
00:24:06finally to take some more concrete steps.
00:24:10Srećko, thank you very much for the information and this
00:24:13update.
00:24:17We are now going to take a short break, and then we will continue with the topic.
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00:30:29You are watching Global Focus, the topic of energy security,
00:30:33instability of the energy crisis. We continue with one of the most prominent energy
00:30:36experts in Serbia, Mr. Aleksandar Kovačević, who is a senior research
00:30:40fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy
00:30:43Studies. Good evening, welcome to
00:30:46Global Focus. Let's discuss with you what are the main
00:30:49geopolitical factors that cause the energy crisis,
00:30:52energy instability, and how that affects
00:30:55us here?
00:30:57Uh, quite.
Data courtesy of The GDELT Project (gdeltproject.org), from the Internet Archive TV News Archive. Film strip and transcript are GDELT's, rehosted here under their terms of use, which permit it with this citation.