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00:00:05of of of
00:00:18Hello and a welcome to pakistan tv live from Islamabad studios, I am Sn
00:00:23of Haqani. Let's have look at the
00:00:24headlines.
00:00:33of a
00:00:40At least 12 people have been killed and 309 others wounded in
00:00:44attack on king Khalid
00:00:46of international airport in
00:00:48in Riyadh.
00:00:49of
00:00:54The Prime Minister Shabbaz Sharief strongly condemns the Hulthy militia's attack on King Khalid
00:00:58of International
00:00:59in Airport in Riyadh. it serious threat to regional peace and
00:01:02of stability.
00:01:07of The US president Donald Trump says he will soon decide whether to
00:01:11join the Saudi strikes against the hoothies following attack on Riyadh's
00:01:14international airport, adding that Washington DC had just
00:01:18of learned
00:01:18of the incident and will make a quick
00:01:20decision.
00:01:26of Several thousand pro
00:01:27of Palestinian of protesters marsh through Central London and Berlin calling for
00:01:31an end to the Israeli strikes on
00:01:32of Gaza, marches carried the plakards, reading and the genocide and free
00:01:36Palestine.
00:01:43The US president Donald Trump urges Ukraine to replace president Vladimir
00:01:47Zelinski with new leader while criticizing him over the strikes on Russian
00:01:51oil refineries that contribute to the high diesel prices before the
00:01:55of election. of The President
00:01:59Asif Ali Zaddari. The Prime Minister Shahbas Sharif discuss political and security
00:02:02situation and agreed to conven National Assembly Senate sessions on
00:02:06of October the
00:02:06of 13th.
00:02:12in Pakistan will face Sri Lanka today in the second T20 international
00:02:16at Ravalpendi cricket stadium. The green shirts lead the three match series 1-0
00:02:20after four wicket win in the opener. BDV Sports HD will be telecasting
00:02:23the match
00:02:24of
00:02:25of live.
00:02:42Those were the headlines,
00:02:43of now the news in detail: at least 12 people have been killed and 309 others
00:02:47injured an attack on the international airport in
00:02:50of Saudi Arabian Capital Riyadh. Days after Yemen's
00:02:53of hoothies claimed to have carried out similar strikes on the
00:02:56of hub, there a Saudi civil aviation authority.
00:03:00said that victims were four Saudis and two Bangladeshi
00:03:03nationals, while Egypt, Jordan, Palestine,
00:03:06of Sudan, Syria and the US, each had one
00:03:11of of their citizens killed. Operations at the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh have been suspended.
00:03:15The US embassy said that it was aware
00:03:18of of the attacks urging Americans to avoid the area. According to the Saudi Led
00:03:21coalition, a projectile also fell near the king father international airport in
00:03:25them in eastern Saudi Arabia. The attacks come day
00:03:29after the... Authorities said
00:03:30a that three Saudies, including pilot were killed in two attacks on the
00:03:34airport by the Hutis the day prior. Another three
00:03:38people were killed in the Houti attacks on two so the airports on the
00:03:416th and the 7th of
00:03:43October.
00:03:48of The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shahbas Sharif has strongly condemned the Huti
00:03:51of militia's attack on the King Khalid international airport in Rad calling it serious
00:03:55threat
00:03:55of to regional peace and stability. In a post
00:03:58of to next, the prime minister expressed condolence. to the berieved families and prayed for the
00:04:01speedy recovery
00:04:02of the injured. He said the attacks on the civilians and critical infrastructure are
00:04:06completely unacceptable and constitute a serious threat to regional peace and
00:04:09stability. He described such attacks as a flagrant
00:04:12of violation
00:04:14of of the international alliance that they must see immediately. Reaffirming Pakistan's
00:04:18of solidarity with Saudi Arabia Sharif wow support for the kingdom's
00:04:22of sovereignty, territorial integrity and security under the Maca joint
00:04:25agreement.
00:04:32Now the
00:04:32of US president Donald Trump has said that he would soon decide whether to join the Saudi
00:04:36strikes again the Hutis following the attack on the Riyads International
00:04:40Airport, killed 12 people including
00:04:43a US citizen. Now Donald Trump told the reporters at white house that the United States
00:04:47might join the Saudi strikes against the Hutis adding that decision would be made soon
00:04:51as Washington DC had just learned
00:04:54of the recent attacks and could act quickly.
00:04:56of Meanwhile the US state department condemned the hoothi
00:04:59of attacks against the civilian. infrastructure and the airports in Saudi Arabia. A state
00:05:02department spokes person told the CBS news that it was in close contact with the Saudi
00:05:06partners, adding that so the Arabia and United States are
00:05:10standing together and United States stood firmly with the
00:05:14Saudi Arabians against hoothi
00:05:16terrorism.
00:05:22That's all the news that we have for the moment, for more news details and live streaming. Do log onto our
00:05:25website Pakistan
00:05:27TV.
00:05:55Assalam alaikum and welcome to perspective. Regional tensions are
00:05:58escalating, putting critical infrastructure, maritime security
00:06:02and regional stability at risk. Hauti attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised
00:06:06fresh security concerns, while the strategic Babel Mandap straight and
00:06:10the state of Hurmus remains central. to wider regional tensions with the
00:06:14US mid-term elections approaching, president Donald
00:06:18Trump is also facing growing political pressure as the Iran
00:06:21conflict disrupts global energy markets and raises
00:06:25questions about the costs and consequences of his
00:06:28policies, how could the evolving security situation
00:06:32affect his party's electoral prospects and shape
00:06:36Washington's next moves. Pakistan has strongly condemned
00:06:40the attacks in Saudi Arabia and its commitment to Saudi
00:06:43sovereinity and security under the Makka joint defense
00:06:47agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. As
00:06:51Islamabad continues to call for peace and
00:06:53deescalation, what is the shifting security
00:06:57landscape mean for the region? In our second
00:07:01segment, we examine Trump's administrator Donald Trump
00:07:04administration's expanding immigration crackdown, including the
00:07:08suspension of green card processing for major technological companies.
00:07:12and investigations into leading US
00:07:15universities, as Washington tightens scrutiny the
00:07:19skilled foreign workers and international research
00:07:22questions are mounting over the future of global
00:07:26talent, mobility and America's
00:07:29competitive competitiveness
00:07:32in the technology sector, all this and more on perspective
00:07:36today,
00:07:37we have with us Hashamul umesi who is senior
00:07:39advisor ' on
00:07:43Yemen and on from European
00:07:47Institute of Peace, we also have with
00:07:50us Paul Fritch senior fellow middle east institute Switzerland,
00:07:54executive in residence Geneva Center for security policy joining
00:07:58us.
00:07:59A little later on we'll also have other guests during the course the
00:08:02program. Welcome to the program
00:08:05Hisham. When we look at Babal Mandap, for
00:08:09example, you the fact that it's become a critical point in this
00:08:12regional, what strategic objectives are
00:08:16the howt is sort of pursuing by
00:08:19threatening maritime traffic and of
00:08:22course what it means for this vital international
00:08:26shipping route corridor and and what are the implications in your
00:08:30opinion for regional security and also
00:08:34what it means as far as global security at this
00:08:37time?
00:08:42"Dut is want to exert pressure on the red
00:08:46sea a maritime trade to get this
00:08:50economic and political leverage. They understand very well that the world will
00:08:54only pay attention to them if they make noise outside the border of
00:08:58Yemen. Yemen has been dubbed for the longest time for the past 12 years the conflict as the
00:09:01forgotten war, and to get some attention, to get
00:09:05some recognition and to get that
00:09:07stick, they needed to attack
00:09:11all these ships in the red sea." making that economic impact on
00:09:15global trade, but also threatening regional countries as well,
00:09:19because they ship lot of oil through that straight, so it's
00:09:22critical for their countries, for the stability their countries, and
00:09:26this is one the reasons why they also in the same way are threatening Saudi
00:09:30Arabia the past few weeks by attacking
00:09:33infrastructure within Riyadh, within other parts of Saudi Arabia, attacking
00:09:37armco, attacking, I remember the electricity grid as
00:09:41well, and they continue. to do that, because that's how they raise the cost
00:09:45the conflict, they learned that from the Iranians and that's
00:09:48how they kind of create this
00:09:51calculus where they can extract concessions, not just from Saudi,
00:09:55but also from regional and international
00:09:57stakeholders. fair
00:10:00enough, we also have with this
00:10:03b, but before
00:10:06we go to him, in terms of in terms the huti's
00:10:10actions, Hisham, we look at
00:10:13you know Yemen's internal conflict and and the political
00:10:16landscape so to speak, how have years of
00:10:20political
00:10:21you know fragmentation, struggle for power, failure to... reach a
00:10:25durable settlement enabled the hauties to
00:10:28consolidate their authority and expand their regional
00:10:32ambition,
00:10:34you know, because we know that internally also the situation and the fact that
00:10:38they've been able to do
00:10:40this, how how do you look at that in terms
00:10:42of what's happening now and the internal situation?
00:10:46that's actually an excellent question, this is
00:10:47what i've been saying for the for the past 10 years is that the
00:10:51hutis uh oh their r the
00:10:55Iranian support, but also to the fragmentation and the division within
00:10:59Yemen, it's it's an inversal proportional
00:11:01relationship where the weaker the yemani factions are, the
00:11:05stronger the duties grow, they managed to exploit all those
00:11:08divisions, the instability, the failure the state
00:11:12since since 2010, since the uprisings that
00:11:16accompanied the arab spring, and they managed to
00:11:19hijack the state, and by doing so they entrenched
00:11:23themselves a position of... power and throughout the past 10
00:11:27years the conflicts since 2015 they managed to
00:11:31expand across Yemen moving all the way to the west
00:11:34coast and that's what you hearing a lot of fighting now for instance in Babel Mandab in the
00:11:38red sea because they want additional territories but they owe that as
00:11:42well because the internal fragmentation and I've
00:11:46always said if you want to defeat the hoothies you need to
00:11:50unify the Yemini factions led by the Yemini government because only
00:11:54them can dislodge the hoothies from places like
00:11:58Damar, the central part of Yemen, but also the capital
00:12:01Sana, there needs to be a concerted effort backed by the regional international
00:12:05community, and luckily for the time being you have the Saudis back in the Yemini
00:12:09government supporting them, but ultimately this is a
00:12:12Yemeny Yemeny fight, this is not, and I remember lot of people
00:12:16trying to pitch it as a Saudi versus Hothies fight, it's
00:12:19not never was, it was the Yemenis that wanted to take
00:12:23back the country from the His. but they also needed support from regional partners
00:12:27and our closest neighbor traditionally for the past 100 years have been Saudi Arabia and
00:12:31that's one the reasons why it was the Saudis that let the
00:12:34coalition that helped attempting to restore
00:12:38the state in 2015, but but where
00:12:42does the houtis actually derive
00:12:45authority within Yemen today when you look at
00:12:48you know the fact that the main sources their political,
00:12:52financial, military power and... and of course
00:12:55you how how do they use that to control
00:12:58territory in terms of trying to understand
00:13:01and also the fact that they
00:13:03they are able to somehow sustain their position
00:13:05right? yep, one one the important things that
00:13:09lot of people need to understand is that the hutis did not spring into the scene just in the past
00:13:1315 years,
00:13:14the hutis were there for the past thousand years, we had the imamat,
00:13:18monarchy in Yemen for the better part the past 1ous
00:13:22years, which was toppled in the 1960. these
00:13:26are reminants of that regime that stayed in
00:13:29yemen in the northern part the country and
00:13:33they managed to build their power over the past 25 years
00:13:37beginning into the 2000s and in 2004 they launched an
00:13:41offensive in the north part the country which led to six consecutive
00:13:45wars between 2004 and 2009 so the is actually
00:13:48existed there for hundreds of years but they managed
00:13:52capitalizing on the instability. in 2010,
00:13:562011 to expand their influence and exploiting
00:14:00the infighting between the various factions, tribal and government and
00:14:03military between the period of 2011 and
00:14:062015 to jump on the scene, hijack the state,
00:14:10take over the capital, take over other parts of Yemen, one, two,
00:14:14they also owe their rise because the support that they've gotten
00:14:18extensive support that they've gotten from Iran, they they got in financial
00:14:21support, they've gotten ballistic missiles, they've gotten missiles, they've gotten
00:14:25drones, they've gotten lot of training, not just from Iran, they've got a lot of
00:14:29training from Hizballah as well, and there's a lot, the actually
00:14:33IRGC officers on the ground, on the
00:14:36battlefield as commanders directing the
00:14:39war in multiple frontlines in Yemen, and that includes
00:14:43Hisbollah and IRGC, so they're getting lot of
00:14:46support, and in terms
00:14:48of question, of course they've
00:14:52managed to have that kind of support that... then allows
00:14:56them to exert this kind of external
00:15:00influence or extern, far beyond the territory.
00:15:04how dangerous is it when when this kind of a
00:15:07grouping can happen and and then and and then potentially
00:15:11have consequences outside a country's
00:15:14territory, when we look at you in the light of this particular
00:15:18instance when we see the houthees, extremely
00:15:22extremely concerning, you have to remember the past couple years. 'his sank
00:15:26or attacked close to 100 ships and there at
00:15:30sea, you're not talking about the conflict that is not contained within the borders of yemen, you're talking
00:15:34about a conflict had a spillover effect, remember during the gaz'.
00:15:37prices helties wanted to jump into the fray trying to pitch
00:15:41themselves as the vanguard the muslim the arab nation by attacking
00:15:45also Israel and beyond that they started attacking
00:15:48ships tried to extract tols from ships passing through the red sea they
00:15:52wanted to be seen as regional player that would have a say in
00:15:56international politics so if anything does not go their way
00:16:00- respective if it is concerning yemen or not they want to
00:16:04exert that political pressure to get this
00:16:07not uh recognition as regional player and this is one the reasons
00:16:11why they attacked multiple ships from different countries, not just saudis now lately, but in
00:16:15the past they've attacked British ships, they've attacked Dutch ships, they've
00:16:18attacked American ships and all sorts of ships, because they wanted that
00:16:22recognition, and it's extremely difficult and extremely dangerous because at the
00:16:26end the day you're dealing with a militia, so if
00:16:29you tolerate that, you're only
00:16:33postponing yet another bout of conflict where the militia is going to
00:16:36blackmail. community seeking additional concessions and this is why I've always
00:16:40been talking to international partners and regional partners is that you need to address the root
00:16:44the conflict,
00:16:45you need to decisively deal with the hoothies, you cannot keep passing the
00:16:49buck and postponing the issue through temporary cease
00:16:52fires or non-sustainable agreements that will allow the
00:16:56hoothies to stay in control, especially when they have control over
00:17:00the means the states and taxation and all revenues. so
00:17:04in terms the consequences of of this kind. of
00:17:08a you know a group, if one can call it
00:17:12that, and and of course the kind of
00:17:14exercising, of course influence
00:17:17outside the territory, what kind of reaction do you overall
00:17:21you expect after what we've seen also, and for Yemen also, in
00:17:25particular, what do you expect in the future?
00:17:29unfortunately based on the track record the past
00:17:33three years, there has been some reactions, you've seen the Americans
00:17:36attack. you've seen the Europeans create the speed's
00:17:40naval force to protect the ships in the red sea, but
00:17:43there they have always been half hearted measures, they
00:17:47never actually delt a blow to the hoothies, it was always
00:17:51a protective force was
00:17:54always, it's just a bare minimum, they did
00:17:58not deal with the
00:18:02the hoothis and dislodging the hoothis, they only try to protect some ships in the red sea while leaving the infrastructure
00:18:06in place, while leaving the... threat in place, which only
00:18:10means that they're postponing the problem
00:18:13and come few months, the his will come
00:18:17back, raise the bar, demand additional concessions, and
00:18:21this is devastating, and this is what happened with Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with the
00:18:24hoothis in 2022, hoping to deescalate the
00:18:28situation, hoping that there is going to be calmer
00:18:32heads that will prevail amongst
00:18:35the huti movement, but we weren't back at the time is: that the hutis are only binding
00:18:38their time to regroup, restock, they will come
00:18:42back and they will ask for additional concessions, and that's basically what they did right
00:18:46now,
00:18:50when we look at in terms of you know regional states in
00:18:54their response to the houthi attacks, the threats also
00:18:58against babal mandap, maritime commerce, what combination of
00:19:01maritime security, deterents, regional
00:19:04cooperation, political engagement you think could make
00:19:08difference at this point, you're also looking at the Saudi
00:19:11Arabia situation
00:19:14to to sort of deescalate for things to at
00:19:18least sort of what can one say go back to
00:19:22a state of normalcy, let's say,
00:19:26well, okay, you need to
00:19:29begin with the cutting or choking the air
00:19:33the out huti means you need to economically kind of basically
00:19:37them, one, two, you cannot just protect the red sea without
00:19:41dislogging the hoothies from multiple areas, three,
00:19:45this is a war that cannot be won just by aerial campaign, we've been there done
00:19:49that since 2015, and it did not dislodge the hoothis, what you need is ground
00:19:53forces to take over the houti controlled
00:19:56areas, you need to limit the power, I've heard lot of arguments
00:20:00the past two days, people saying like, if the America government forces managed to secure the
00:20:04west coast, then it's an end to the
00:20:06huti threat, that is a... completely false, heuties managed
00:20:10to attack the ships over the past two years when they did not
00:20:14control b, well beyond bau mendeb
00:20:18within from the internal parts of yemen they attack the ships, so you don't need just
00:20:22to secure babel mendeb, you need to dislagge the hoothies from the hotland
00:20:26and from places like the capital sal, four, as long
00:20:29as people continue to treat the hoothis as a viable political party, we're not getting
00:20:33anywhere, houties are a militia, they think in mentality of a militia.
00:20:38they're maximalist, they also always come back and raise the
00:20:41bar, if you don't limit their military power, if you
00:20:45don't have that breaking point where you isolate them, we're not gna get
00:20:49anywhere. how do you in terms
00:20:53the the nexus when we look at Israel in particular,
00:20:57how does it factor in and and how you know the consequences
00:21:00of that nexis itself, do you think
00:21:04that it's been exposed enough, do you expect it to sort of
00:21:07have you know the the ramifications of that for the world, how do
00:21:11you look at
00:21:13that? well let's refocus that a little bit on yemen, whatever
00:21:16have had happened over the past three years especially with the guys, gaza
00:21:20crisis, the hutis has managed to exploit that to their advantage,
00:21:24they've seen how the world failed to act
00:21:28in defending the Palestinians and they use
00:21:31that to recruit fighters on the ground, and
00:21:34lot of other factions did the same thing as well, but the hutis exploited it a very good way bause
00:21:38they have a really good PR machine and they recruited tens of
00:21:42thousands of fighters and and trying to
00:21:46position themselves as the strongest member the axis of resistance. that is
00:21:50led by Iran and in doing so they managed to also get
00:21:53recruits from across the red sea and build relationships with the
00:21:57shabab in Somalia and they did so by
00:22:01also recruiting people from Syria from Lebanon and in Iraq as well
00:22:05and they built also opened offices even there so they built this
00:22:09regional network a premise of dealing with
00:22:13Israel but while having at heart
00:22:16their own objectives their own max maximalist objectives. and
00:22:20expanding their influence not just at the southern tip the peninsula but regional
00:22:23influence and they built this huge network
00:22:27of and also arsenal if i may that they could
00:22:31use any given moment whether it's in regards to Israel or others
00:22:35and that's what they did over the past month when they started attacking Saudi Arabia they
00:22:39didn't attack Israel they attack Saudi Arabia but what
00:22:43about the reports of the delegation when we look at the US
00:22:47delegation meeting how these and and the effects of that. that do you
00:22:50think how credible and and do you think that there is a
00:22:54possibility that something will emerge from there also?
00:22:58how do you look at that? well, the UN led peace
00:23:01process is still ongoing, yes there's been a lot of multiple impediments
00:23:05and it's a steep
00:23:09hill to clibe, especially during escalation, so
00:23:12they always try to deescalate where cooler heads would prevail and
00:23:16they will manage to bring people to the table, unfortunately every time...
00:23:20they get to to that point something or the other happens and we're
00:23:23back into fighting mode between the various factions and always it's
00:23:27triggered by the hoothies and this is where we at now for instance the un
00:23:30envoy delivered his remarks yesterday and he basically
00:23:33said we will continue on the path
00:23:37of trying to get a peace process
00:23:41started - ultimately
00:23:44reconciliation but right
00:23:46now emotions are high right now the fighting is
00:23:50still ongoing, right now the dust has not settled, right now all the
00:23:54groups are trying to get as much territory as possible
00:23:57before they eventually move into negotiations, and this is one the questions
00:24:01that lot of people have asked me and they said,
00:24:05do you think government is going to completely abliterate the hutis or the hutis are going to be able to completely obliterate
00:24:09the uni government and
00:24:10i said like that's going to be difficult because you're talking about a complete massacre
00:24:14if you want to wipe up the hoothis, i don't think that's
00:24:16feasible and vice versa. "the hoodis
00:24:20cannot wipe out half the country, eventually,
00:24:24inevitably, you reach an agreement, but the question is,
00:24:28when we get to the table, who's going to have the upper hand? and right now,
00:24:31huties have leverage, and they need to dilute that
00:24:35leverage. fair enough, thank you so much, thank you for
00:24:38summing it up so well, thank you for your time, hisham. i want to move on, we
00:24:42have with this paul fritch who's a senior fellow institute, switzerland, executive and
00:24:46residence, geneva center for security policy joining us, it's always a pleasure" having
00:24:50you Paul, when we look at the midterm elections,
00:24:53Iran, Hurmas and of course,
00:24:56you know, the political cost of this war, how do you look at this? as far
00:25:00as the midterm elections are concerned, of course the
00:25:03strategic constraint, if one can call it that,
00:25:07as far as Donald Trump administration is concerned,
00:25:11once the the pre-election situation versus the post
00:25:14election situation, how would how do you look at it and and you think it will be a
00:25:18change scenario? "considering what we know about the
00:25:22position of of you know at this time as far
00:25:25as the Donald Trump administration is
00:25:27concerned? yes, well, I think
00:25:31the strategic constraint um on the
00:25:34president is uh, not so much the mid-terms
00:25:38themselves, the the strategic constraint is public opinion
00:25:42uh that is by and large opposed uh to this
00:25:46war, and uh we see the uh mid-term election.
00:25:50campaigns as an expression of that, and we had
00:25:53series of senate debates this week,
00:25:57and republican candidates have struggled to
00:26:01explain their... support for the war in terms
00:26:04their votes against congressional resolutions that
00:26:08have sought to uh reign in president Trump's
00:26:11authority, and yes, I think that the
00:26:14midterms, if the polls are to be believed, are
00:26:18probably going to send major
00:26:22signal of a public rebuke the
00:26:26administration's policy, but but when
00:26:30if we you, like you said, it's it's going to send a public. signal of
00:26:33rebuke, does it,
00:26:36do you think to a man like President Donald Trump, do you think it's going to
00:26:39matter in the sense that right now, in terms of this is his
00:26:43second term,
00:26:45so you know, in terms of what he's expecting, do you think he's thinking about his
00:26:48legacy, do you think that you know he is thinking about
00:26:52bettering the the original Obama agreement, or
00:26:56you know I think we spoke earlier, that is no more on the table,
00:27:00it's not something that's likely to happen anymore. so what is what
00:27:04is he going to be thinking? not that one can really judge, but what is your
00:27:07opinion generally? well, we have to
00:27:11remember that it's not the only constraint on president
00:27:14Trump, his uh military options have become more
00:27:18constrained by virtue of simple military
00:27:21realities, the uh force that's currently deployed in the
00:27:24Persian Gulf cannot remain there indefinitely, the loss
00:27:28the naval support activity in Bahrain has straine.
00:27:33logistical supply chains, we've seen
00:27:36aircraft carrier groups remain deployed well beyond
00:27:40the point where they remained operationally
00:27:43effective and then subsequently taken out of
00:27:47service for extended periods of time for emergency maintenance,
00:27:51we saw that with the USS Gerald Ford, we saw that with the USS Abraham
00:27:55Lincoln, these are um these are
00:27:59assets that the US has in limited quantities and it's
00:28:02continue this pace and intensity of deployment
00:28:06indefinitely, if there is a change in control of
00:28:10congress and congress is willing to assert its prerogatives
00:28:13more aggressively in terms of restricting funding
00:28:17and passing concrete legislative
00:28:21constraints on the president's ability to conduct this war,
00:28:24then that will further constrain president Trump in the
00:28:28the options that he has. we've seen the depletion of...
00:28:32munitions worldwide, the US has has
00:28:36lost between half and two-thirds of its supplies
00:28:39of critical offensive and
00:28:43defensive munitions, tomahawk missiles, patriot pack
00:28:47th interceptors, that interceptors, these are developments
00:28:51that have an impact not only with regard to this conflict, but also with
00:28:55regard to the strength the US military deterrent in Asia
00:28:58in Europe, so yes the
00:29:01sorry when we
00:29:04do is it fact that the US can
00:29:07you know continue this war at least on the military
00:29:11front indefinitely or you think that you
00:29:15within these constraints? no, no, I
00:29:18don't think I don't think that it's sustainable, I think that
00:29:22it can continue the blockade of Iranian ports
00:29:26for some period of time, but I think even that um
00:29:30will be subject to a balancing. with regard to the
00:29:34impact
00:29:34of that operation on US capabilities in other
00:29:38theaters around the world and in particularly east
00:29:41Asia where the US presence has been weakened
00:29:45significantly by this conflict, there there
00:29:49is not currently a single US aircraft carrier
00:29:53strike group deployed anywhere in the Asia pacific
00:29:56theater um that's a problem when most
00:30:00the American foreign policy establishment remains focused on the
00:30:04long-term a strategic competition with China
00:30:08um and faces and the US and its
00:30:11allies face other threats in the Asia Pacific region such as North
00:30:15Korea. um this this is a
00:30:19situation that can continue for some time, it cannot continue
00:30:22indefinitely
00:30:23and uh the options for a significant military
00:30:27escalation such as the introduction of ground
00:30:30troops are limited. by military capabilities and they're
00:30:34limited by lack of public
00:30:35support. how
00:30:39pushed is Donald Trump knowing that
00:30:43he is losing support for the
00:30:44midterms?
00:30:47well, that's a difficult question,
00:30:50because I, I hesitate, I hesitate
00:30:53to try to get into the president's head. um, if you
00:30:57listen to him at his rallies, um, he does