Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00um on the president is uh not so
00:00:04much the mid-terms themselves, there's the strategic constraint is
00:00:08public opinion uh that is by and large opposed to
00:00:12this war, and uh we see
00:00:15of the mid-term election campaigns as an expression of that,
00:00:20of and we had series of senate debates this
00:00:23week, and republican candidates have
00:00:26of struggled to explain their formal support. for the
00:00:30war in terms
00:00:31of their uh votes against uh congressional resolutions that
00:00:35have sought to uh reign in president Trump's authority
00:00:38and uh yes I think that the mid-terms um if
00:00:42the polls are to be believed are probably uh going to
00:00:46send
00:00:47of major signal of a
00:00:51public rebuke
00:00:52of the administration's policy but but
00:00:56when if we you know like you said it's it's going to send a public signal. of
00:01:00rebuke: does it, do you think to a man
00:01:04like President Donald Trump, do you think it's going to matter in the
00:01:08sense that right now in terms of this is his second term,
00:01:11so you in terms of what he's expecting, do you think he's thinking
00:01:15about his legacy? do you think that you know he is thinking about
00:01:19bettering the the original Obama agreement, or
00:01:23you think we spoke earlier that is no more on the table,
00:01:27it's not
00:01:27a something that's likely to happen anymore. so what is
00:01:30what is he going to be thinking? not that one can really judge, but what is your
00:01:34of opinion of generally?
00:01:36of well, we have to remember that it's not the only
00:01:39constraint on president Trump, his military
00:01:43options have become more
00:01:46of constrained by virtue of simple military realities.
00:01:49of the force that's currently deployed in the Persian Gulf cannot remain there
00:01:53indefinitely, the loss
00:01:55of the naval support activity in Bahrain has
00:01:58of strained uh logistical supply chains,
00:02:02we've
00:02:03of seen aircraft carrier groups remain deployed well
00:02:06of beyond the point where they remained operationally
00:02:10effective and
00:02:12of then of subsequently
00:02:14of taken out of service for extended periods of time for emergency
00:02:17maintenance, we saw that with the USS Gerald Ford, we saw that with the
00:02:21USS Abraham Lincoln, these
00:02:24are these are assets that the US has in
00:02:27limited
00:02:29of quantities and it can't continue. this pace and intensity of
00:02:32deployment indefinitely, if there is a
00:02:35change in control of congress and congress is willing to assert its
00:02:39prerogatives uh more aggressively in terms of restricting
00:02:43funding and uh passing concrete
00:02:47legislative
00:02:47of constraints on the president's ability to conduct this war,
00:02:51then that will further constrain president Trump in
00:02:55of the the options
00:02:56of that he has. we've seen the depletion of critical munition.
00:03:00worldwide uh, the
00:03:02of US has has lost between half and two-thirds
00:03:05a of its supplies of critical offensive
00:03:09and uh defensive munitions,
00:03:12of tomahawk missiles, patriot pack th interceptors, that
00:03:15interceptors, these are
00:03:17a developments that have an impact not only with regard to this conflict, but
00:03:21also with regard to the strength the US military deterrant in Asia, in
00:03:31do is it fact that the US can
00:03:34you know continue this war at least on the military
00:03:38front indefinitely or you think that you
00:03:41within these constraints? no, no, I
00:03:45don't think I don't think that it's sustainable, I think that it
00:03:49can continue the blockade of Iranian ports for
00:03:53some period of time, but I think even
00:03:56in that um will be subject to a balancing test with... regard
00:04:00to the impact of that operation on US
00:04:03capabilities in
00:04:05in other theaters around the world and in particularly east
00:04:08Asia where the US presence has been weakened
00:04:12significantly by this conflict, there
00:04:16there is not currently a single US aircraft carrier
00:04:20strike group deployed anywhere in the Asia
00:04:23a Pacific Theater. That's a problem
00:04:26a when most
00:04:27of the American foreign policy establishment. focused on the
00:04:30long-term
00:04:32in a strategic competition with China
00:04:36a um and faces and the U.S. and its allies face other threats in the Asia
00:04:40Pacific region such as North
00:04:42of Korea, of this this is a
00:04:46situation that can continue for some time, it cannot continue
00:04:49indefinitely, and the options for a
00:04:52significant military
00:04:54a escalation such as the introduction of ground
00:04:57troops are limited by military. capabilities and they're
00:05:01limited by lack of
00:05:02of public
00:05:05a support. how pushed is donald trump
00:05:08knowing that he is losing support for the midterms?
00:05:25his rallies, um, he doesn't seem to believe that he's losing public
00:05:28support, uh, clearly he is, um,
00:05:32unlike in his first term, where uh, he seemed
00:05:36to retain a fairly diverse set of
00:05:40sources of information, uh,
00:05:43"he seems to be um locked inside bubble
00:05:47where people largely tell him what he wants to hear,
00:05:51uh, so um, I don't know how much of a surprise the midterm elections are
00:05:55going to be for the president, um, clearly when he wakes up on
00:05:59the morning of November 4th, um,
00:06:02if uh, the situation is as it seems to be at the
00:06:06moment, um, he's going to be dealing with very different political
00:06:09reality than the one that he's been uh living with." the past two
00:06:13years, so what if the republicans lose
00:06:16control of congress? in terms of an
00:06:20electoral setback, do you think that it could push
00:06:24Trump back to the diplomatic table, or
00:06:28you think that
00:06:29you know it could escalate the confrontation? there seem to be divided opinions on
00:06:33this, on which side do you, which side would you
00:06:36take? think in the
00:06:40short term, i think president Trump... instinct will be to
00:06:44rely more on his own authority, on executive power
00:06:48that does not uh require consultation and
00:06:51authorization from congress and that we could see in the short
00:06:55term a move toward
00:06:58escalation. in the long term, however, he's going to be dependent
00:07:02upon um the constraints and the the
00:07:06levels of funding that he gets from the congress
00:07:09and in terms the impact of
00:07:12republican uh loss in November, it's going to depend
00:07:16to a large extent on the magnitude of the loss.
00:07:20I i think most observers uh now assume
00:07:24that uh the Democrats will take control the House of
00:07:27Representatives, that's going to have major impact uh in
00:07:30terms of funding and in terms of
00:07:33oversight, but uh right now the the betting
00:07:37is that it's more likely than not that the Democrats will also take control
00:07:41the Senate. uh and that will put concrete constraints
00:07:45on uh President Trump's ability to uh
00:07:48staff his administration um to
00:07:52uh nominate federal judges
00:07:55uh and I think um if the
00:07:58magnitude the electoral loss for the Republicans is
00:08:02significant enough uh when combined with the fact that we're
00:08:06entering the last two years um the second term of a
00:08:10presidential administration where president Trump is
00:08:1480 years old and not eligible to run for
00:08:16re-election, we may
00:08:18see his
00:08:20control of his own party start to slip and members
00:08:24the Republican minorities in Congress start to
00:08:28diverge from his policy
00:08:30agenda. um, is
00:08:34Washington pursuing a coherent end game
00:08:38with Iran in your opinion, you know, of course
00:08:42it's
00:08:48simple so yes, answer
00:08:48no, the simple,
00:08:49the is no, Washington was not pursuing a coherent start game, and it
00:08:53is not pursuing a coherent end game. I think President
00:08:56Trump would like to find um an exit strategy, I think
00:09:00that was the message that he was sending with the Islamabad memorandum
00:09:04of understanding, but it's
00:09:08become increasingly unclear what the
00:09:11substantive elements. of that strategy would be
00:09:15uh, there may be some additional um
00:09:18flexibility um in accepting
00:09:22uh unpopular terms uh after the mid-terms when there's not an immediate
00:09:26electoral consequence um but um as of
00:09:29now um they've they've tried a military
00:09:33solution that's failed um they've tried
00:09:37um I would say half-heartedly diplomatic route that's also
00:09:41failed uh and uh right
00:09:44now the the primary focus seems to be on economic
00:09:47pressure, which has the potential to have an
00:09:51impact, but will only work over the long
00:09:53term. US and
00:09:57Iran, do you think that there's a chance that that could
00:10:00also change after the
00:10:02midterms? you think that you know there would be
00:10:06reaction to whatever happens in the polls, you think that you
00:10:10know if if the the... there is the results are what we expect,
00:10:14there's going to be some kind of reaction as far as relationship between
00:10:18the current administration and netan
00:10:28uh, there there will be um, well, there there may
00:10:31potentially be a change of administration in Israel as well,
00:10:35so I think before we get to the US mid-terms, we have to see
00:10:39what the results the Israeli elections are,
00:10:43and what the approach the new
00:10:47Israeli government, if there is one will be,
00:10:51um, one the problems that we've been facing in this um
00:10:55electoral period is that the pre-electoral periods in
00:10:58Israel and the United States have overlapped and the interests
00:11:02of President Trump and President Netanyahu have
00:11:06diverged, President Trump has had an interest in
00:11:09deescalating and getting this conflict out the headlines and
00:11:13easing pressure on world energy markets and in attempt
00:11:17to bring down energy costs and
00:11:21inflation for American voters, whereas Prime Minister.
00:11:25Netanyahu has had an interest in escalating and
00:11:28highlighting um the direct threat to Israel an
00:11:32attempt to rally support for his own coalition um
00:11:36after the election uh those pressures will ease uh
00:11:40so um there there will be an
00:11:42opportunity uh for the two sides
00:11:46to try to harmonize their approaches again
00:11:50uh the problem is that um prime minister Netanyahu for
00:11:54number of has done tremendous damage
00:11:58to the image of Israel in the United States and I think we've seen
00:12:01that play out in the mid-term election
00:12:05campaign, and the the incoming congress I think is going to be much more
00:12:09skeptical, particularly if Mr. Netanyahu prevails and
00:12:12remains prime minister, is going to be much more skeptical of that
00:12:30you know, it's permanent suspension
00:12:32of labor certification applications for Microsoft, several
00:12:36major IT firms, while launching
00:12:39investigations into nine universities, what does
00:12:43this tell us about the administration's broader immigration
00:12:47strategy and you know how far could this crackdown
00:12:51really go in your opinion? well, I think with
00:12:55look at the the crackdown is what we're seeing in terms of larger us foreign policy in
00:12:58general uh, i would say this crackdown relates economic
00:13:02nationalism, what the the president trump is trying to move forward, what what he
00:13:06sees this is uh america first agenda which is we are prioritizing
00:13:10americans first uh that that
00:13:14largely said um there still hasn't been necessarily a
00:13:17correlation to show that uh that these number of Microsoft workers are
00:13:21taking American jobs, this is something the administration hasn't yet proven.
00:13:25um, but but more or less
00:13:26I think one the larger implications could be uh is that uh
00:13:30employers um and as well as those seeking employment
00:13:34in the United States would be dissuaded from uh attracting any kind of
00:13:37international talent to the United States uh which which has been
00:13:41a um
00:13:44uh huge um advantage to the United States for for many many decades
00:13:48now um so I think that's a major risk to to what's happening
00:13:51about on the part the Trump administration.
00:13:56Vice President GD Vans has also accused Microsoft
00:14:00of benefiting from thousands of H1
00:14:03visas, green cards while of course laying of
00:14:07American workers. How credible is the administrations
00:14:11argument that skilled workforce immigration programs are
00:14:14being used at the expense of US
00:14:17employees? Isn't it an age old
00:14:24an age-old argument. and again as i just said in my previous comment that this is
00:14:27something that the administration hasn't actually proven any causation
00:14:31between the the number of actual uh green card workers or
00:14:35those who come on visas and actually the and Microsoft and other companies laying
00:14:39Americans off. um another you another key question would
00:14:42be uh the the the level of skill set, I mean we we know that currently in
00:14:46the United States we we have a disunroment and
00:14:49universities uh across the country as the cost
00:14:53of um the cost of... um, universities have skyrocketed
00:14:57addition to the job market, even
00:15:03the uh in in technological skills have have also been declining because growth of AI, so I think this could be a
00:15:07major concern moving forward for for American
00:15:11companies as they seek to look for a tech
00:15:13talent. Microsoft says
00:15:17that about 80% of its H1B applications last
00:15:21physical year involved extending or changing the status. of
00:15:25existing employees, do you think that this complicates the administrations
00:15:29claim that companies are using these programs, to
00:15:33replace American workers if they're only
00:15:35you know changing them, for example?
00:15:37you know extending them or changing the status?
00:15:41well, again, I think it comes back to the idea that that facts matter here, this
00:15:45this particular instance, Microsoft is is making the case that
00:15:49uh that this isn't actually true, that they're just renewing visas, so they're making that clear
00:15:53distinction between you, renewing visas and bringing people back
00:15:56into uh to to work versus bringing
00:16:00people to work in the United States, so um so I definitely think it
00:16:04it it complicates the the narrative from from the current
00:16:07administration, definitely, but it, but does it
00:16:11also sort of allow them to to
00:16:14justify what what is happening as far as know
00:16:18Microsoft and these
00:16:36look at what what is said, in your opinion, this
00:16:39argument versus the fact that it's
00:16:42impacting citizens, how do you credit the
00:16:45situation, when we look at this
00:16:47crackdown? well, i
00:16:51think as as my colleague said, we see it
00:16:55as a part of a broader crackdown
00:16:58on immigration from all sources, um,
00:17:02that is not particularly data
00:17:05driven, um, there's "there is no
00:17:08evidence for the notion that the
00:17:12H1B program is diverting
00:17:15is is displacing large numbers
00:17:18of US born tech workers,
00:17:22and in fact this has been a major source of
00:17:25strength to the US economy, has been the ability to attract, and
00:17:29integrate and reward um talent from around the
00:17:33world. um, the president Trump a couple of weeks..."
00:17:37hosted uh Shin Ping um in Washington and he hosted
00:17:41a state dinner uh that included uh CEOs
00:17:45of uh tech companies uh and
00:17:4880 to 90% them were foreign born were immigrants who
00:17:52themselves had uh come to the country through the
00:17:54H1B program um foreign born talent uh
00:17:58has been a source of US leadership on uh on
00:18:02AI and and other uh cutting edge uh
00:18:05tech
00:18:11not only cracking down on H1Bs but also on various
00:18:15forms of student visas on F1s on J1s on
00:18:18cutting back research funds from the federal government
00:18:22um it all is going to have a
00:18:26very harmful effect on the US economy and in the case of
00:18:29H1Bs uh given the fact that roughly 70%
00:18:33them come from India uh it's going to become irritant and
00:18:37that by lateral relationship as
00:18:46also investigating nine leading universities, including
00:18:49Harvard, Yale and Stanford over this alleged
00:18:53visa abuse and concerns about of course foreign influence as far
00:18:57as research particularly is concerned. Where should the
00:19:01government draw the line in your opinion between legitimate
00:19:04oversight and political interference in? these
00:19:07cases as far as particularly higher education is
00:19:11concerned? well, I think that's an excellent question, and I
00:19:15think having been a former USA, former
00:19:19foreign service officer who's managed US government funds and also has been also been in
00:19:23academia, I think it's particularly important to note that the government does have the right and we
00:19:26should be on the hook for how we spend US tax dollars, however on the other side
00:19:30of that there is such notion in this country and this is something that people come from all over the world to
00:19:34study here is that we have academic freedom as which the... comment um doesn't
00:19:38interfere and what we can research, especially on certain
00:19:42topics that that may be considered sensitive, but this isn't the
00:19:46case, this this
00:19:47is a growing concern that the administration is trying to impact or or or
00:19:51restrict what can be funded or researched, again
00:19:55understanding that there there are restrictions on how we can spend us
00:19:59tax pair of funds, but various critics have noted
00:20:02that there's this kind of dubious kind of connection to what the administrator says, the
00:20:06administration you know claims uh may infringe
00:20:10upon um spending spending taxpayer funds in
00:20:14responsible way and also uh letting academics and student
00:20:17researchers have uh political freedom or or or have uh freed academic
00:20:21freedom to be able to write about or do research on on these different
00:20:25topics so I think I think we're seeing we're seeing something that that that has been
00:20:28largely unprecedented um here
00:20:31in in the in in the United States where universities who um
00:20:34rely especially for certain research programs on federal
00:20:38funding either have to comply or they have to stop research, which is major
00:20:42disadvantage to the the American
00:20:52who come to study here are are it's a part of US soft
00:20:55power um US American education is a part of is huge part of
00:20:59that and those who are educated in the United States um
00:21:03they when they finish their education they go back to their native countries um and they take
00:21:07that experience and they take living
00:21:08in the United States and they take those relationships with them um and so
00:21:12when when we maline that relationship that we were mining these
00:21:15experiences uh we're really doing long-term harm to American interest
00:21:19and to the... american people moving
00:21:31what's happened as far as universities like Harvard, Yales,
00:21:35Stanford are concerned. Dr. Jared is right, in terms of
00:21:38image and what higher education stands for in the world, globally as far
00:21:42as US
00:21:43is concerned. earlier on we also saw,
00:21:47you know, what a year ago there was as far as the universities and and
00:21:51the current Donald administration seems to be a continuing kind
00:21:54of
00:21:56you know policy, is that correct? and and
00:22:00what do you think is behind this kind of
00:22:03an uprore that we see
00:22:04now? I think it
00:22:08has many elements. um, certainly um at the
00:22:12core of Donald Trump's political identity
00:22:16is restrictionist approach.
00:22:20immigration now that as as
00:22:23Jared said, when it comes to foreign
00:22:26students studying in the United States, that has negative
00:22:30impact on American soft power throughout the world, because
00:22:34many students from around the world come study in the United
00:22:37States, are become sympathetic to
00:22:41American values, to American culture, and then take that experience back
00:22:45home. It also has a direct impact on American hard
00:22:48power, um... because
00:22:51as as I mentioned earlier um many the foreign students who come here
00:22:55end up staying and end up contributing
00:22:57massively to America's
00:23:00technological development and economic development. um
00:23:04we we see the the CEOs of of Nvidia
00:23:08of Intel of SpaceX of Yahoo! I
00:23:12mean all foreign born um who brought their
00:23:16talents to the US from around the world uh so... that has
00:23:20an impact, but um, in terms of American
00:23:23politics, the the broader
00:23:26attitude of this administration toward higher
00:23:30education has um a
00:23:34bit of a darker aspect to it, which
00:23:38is that there has been a shift in electoral
00:23:41coalitions over the past several years,
00:23:44where the more education you have, the
00:23:48less likely you are to... support uh Donald Trump and his
00:23:51movement uh and uh that's a
00:23:55simple fact of electoral math uh there there was one um
00:23:59election night uh where uh Mr. Trump himself uh
00:24:03blurted out I love the poorly educated
00:24:07uh so there is a sense that uh the universities have
00:24:10become um a part of sort of a
00:24:14political infrastructure that is antithetical
00:24:18uh to uh Mr. Trump's ideological movement and
00:24:22so he has attacked them as such, that is
00:24:26not good for the future
00:24:29of the United States as as a nation, it's not good for
00:24:33future generations. If skilled
00:24:37professionals start looking beyond the United
00:24:40States, which as far as countries and regions in terms
00:24:44of which countries and regions are best position to
00:24:47benefit, Canada, European count. countries, China
00:24:51even, how do you look at it?
00:24:54well, Canada in the first instance, um,
00:24:58Europe and China certainly have the
00:25:02theoretical possibility to benefit, but I think in order for that
00:25:06to happen, there would need to be dramatic reforms to those
00:25:09countries immigration systems. I
00:25:12think, up until this current
00:25:15administration, it had largely been seen as a
00:25:19major source. of American
00:25:22strengthh in terms of economic
00:25:25competition with peers and near piers in Europe
00:25:29and China that unlike those
00:25:32countries which
00:25:35are are both facing similar demographic challenges from aging
00:25:39populations that the US maintained robust
00:25:42system of immigration that was able to integrate
00:25:46both high-end talent.
00:25:50uh to uh drive the cutting edges the economy
00:25:53technologically, um, but also uh
00:25:57labor uh that um our um
00:26:01social security system uh relies upon having
00:26:05a ratio of six active workers for every one
00:26:08retiree. um, if you stop
00:26:10immigration, that that ratio starts to fall
00:26:14and the the social welfare system becomes
00:26:17untenable over the long term, and I think we've seen versions of that in
00:26:21Europe and in China. Canada, I
00:26:24think, stands to benefit the most immediately in the short
00:26:28term, because Canada, like the United States, is nation of immigrants.
00:26:32and uh adheres to value system uh
00:26:36that uh is is fairly
00:26:38welcoming. in terms of
00:26:42you know the administration says that of course the measures are there to protect American
00:26:46jobs, critics warn of wider economic consequences.
00:26:50how can the United States enforce their immigration rules and
00:26:54prevent genuine abuses? also,
00:26:56you know, and of course the fact that they don't undermining the workforce needs,
00:27:00research ecosystem or... you think that the system at present
00:27:04is already well placed and
00:27:07you know can can is workable?
00:27:11well certainly in order to maintain confidence in the
00:27:14system you have to enforce the rules and you have to police
00:27:18abuses. i myself started my career
00:27:22in the
00:27:22in the US foreign service as as a visa officer
00:27:25in in what was then bombay and mumbai in
00:27:29India. there were certainly cases in which
00:27:33um Indian firms were taking advantage the H1B
00:27:36system, the L1 system, the J1 system in ways in
00:27:40which the program was not intended, but I think that's not what we're seeing in
00:27:44this current administration, what we're seeing is a calling into question
00:27:48the basic logic and strategic objectives these
00:27:52programs, when the administration
00:27:56tries to raise the the fee for applying
00:28:00for an H1 visa from few hundred dollars to
00:28:04100 thous dollars, which has now been stopped in the
00:28:07courts, that is not a measure that's
00:28:10designed to police abuses the program, that's that's a measure that's
00:28:14designed to undermine the program as a whole, and I think that's
00:28:18what we're seeing with these latest measures as
00:28:31at what's happening as far as the US. is as far as this calling into
00:28:34question, the HP1 visas and the fact that
00:28:38youts own ramifications on the system currently in
00:28:41place and of course whether the system itself can
00:28:45be undermined completely like Paul said with the kind of
00:28:48measures that have been talked about and and
00:28:52you know even to an extent tried to be put in place, those are
00:28:56important questions that perhaps need to be addressed. thank you so much for joining
00:28:59us today on perspective.
00:30:12Hello and welcome, you're watching Pakistan TV, I am Ahmed Shah and these
00:30:15are the
00:30:16headlines.
00:30:37The President on the advice of Prime Minister Shaz Sharif imposes an emergency
00:30:41in Khair Pakhton Khan under article 232 and 234 the
00:30:45Constitution of Pakistan given the gravity of
00:30:48situation.