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00:00:30increases chicken meat production by 9%. Will there be competition with
00:00:33Brazil, huh? President Trump announces a ceasefire between Russia and
00:00:37Ukraine. Iguaçu Falls walkway is closed to
00:00:49buyers, expanded its own production by
00:00:529%. This is only in the first half of this year,
00:00:56huh? In addition, the country also expanded its...
00:01:00rotations: even with the internal increase in protein
00:01:03production, Brazil exported to the Asian nation between January and September
00:01:07of this year, more than 420,000 tons
00:01:10of the product. Meanwhile, in the first 5 months of
00:01:132025, China exported more than 546 thousand
00:01:17tons of chicken meat. But is this already a reason
00:01:21for concern for producers here in Brazil,
00:01:25huh? Who will analyze the risks of competition between
00:01:29are also seeing a growth in the the markets is the... economist Ricardo Buso. Hi Ricardo, good afternoon to
00:01:32you, always welcome to Conexão, good
00:01:35afternoon Kelly, good afternoon everyone, always a pleasure to be here. Well, let's point out
00:01:39for those who follow Conexão, the importance of Brazil when it comes to
00:01:42chicken meat production and export. Well, Brazil is the largest producer and largest
00:01:46exporter of chicken meat in the world.
00:01:50It is a powerhouse in this regard. When we talk
00:01:53about China, it's a very curious relationship, because it's
00:01:57our main client and... it has chances of
00:02:01becoming a competitor, why is that? As you said, production is
00:02:05growing a lot, it's growing above consumption,
00:02:08so what happens? There's more left to export, but then
00:02:12a very interesting issue comes up, which is
00:02:15consumption habits. Here, our preference, right, for
00:02:19breast, thigh and drumstick, in China the preference is
00:02:23for feet and wings, so they still have a very
00:02:27disposition, an excellent ally in great need to import feet and wings.
00:02:30mainly, and these cuts that we prefer are left over,
00:02:33so this dilemma comes in, right, and
00:02:36it continues to be our biggest client, right,
00:02:39by far, I think only in September, eh, it didn't lead
00:02:43our foreign sales, our sales destination,
00:02:46and it's growing, we know, right,
00:02:499% eh in 6 months for
00:02:53agriculture, for agribusiness, it's a huge
00:02:56leap, and creating production scale, no one
00:02:59doubts China, they are very good at it, exactly, and they have
00:03:03that medium-term plan, let's even consider medium-term
00:03:06to really guarantee food security for the country, so they
00:03:09have eh adopted several
00:03:13strategies and now chicken meat is also on the radar, isn't it?
00:03:16Well, eh, these strategies
00:03:20they come both through production and through
00:03:24association with countries, right, with, let's say,
00:03:27benefits that can keep that country close
00:03:30for geopolitical effect, but also for food security, which
00:03:34is fundamental for a country that has the second largest population
00:03:38in the world, it was once the first, and to have a very expressive
00:03:42growth rate, to cope with that is not simple, right, it needs to guarantee itself
00:03:45and it does its part like no one else, now we need
00:03:49to keep an eye on this Chinese movement because it's like this, we
00:03:53are looking at China, our main buyer
00:03:56that even has different cuts from ours as preferred. So far so
00:04:00good, but Ricardo, we know the importance, for
00:04:04example, of the Middle East market for
00:04:07Brazilian chicken meat, right, I was even there in the
00:04:10region, visiting some factories and I saw
00:04:14how Brazilian protein is already so
00:04:17adapted there, in fact, for the consumer that
00:04:21many consumers in the regions, for example, United Arab
00:04:25Emirates, don't even imagine that the meat is not from there,
00:04:28because Brazilian industries... they did research even to
00:04:32adapt to the seasoning of the meat, right, they even went to the
00:04:35houses of the house zones, they went there to find out what kind of seasoning each
00:04:39one uses to adapt the product to the best flavor there
00:04:42in the region, right, so how does it fit in this scenario, right, because
00:04:46you just said, China has scale and if China
00:04:49also aims for the Middle
00:04:51East? Well, eh, China
00:04:55today exports chicken meat almost
00:04:5810 times less than Brazil, Brazil has almost 10
00:05:02times more exports, so it's
00:05:05something that for agribusiness makes a lot of difference to have
00:05:08scale and achieve better production costs, so
00:05:12at this point we are still far, China is
00:05:15far from reaching us, right, as you well said, for the Middle
00:05:19East we already have the standardization they
00:05:21desire, China has experience in exporting
00:05:25processed chicken and now enters with more force
00:05:29in this in natura market, so eh given
00:05:32that it's very difficult for us to lose this position
00:05:36in the medium term, or for China to threaten us because
00:05:39of costs, now what needs to remain... intent is
00:05:43China's logistics to the Middle East and that's a favorable
00:05:46point for them, so what they lose in scale
00:05:50and in production cost, which we know how to do much
00:05:53better, they have some chance to compensate and get better
00:05:57over time in logistics
00:06:01and geography, shorter distances to the Middle East, which
00:06:05is a big client of ours and a global consumer. Well, right, we're
00:06:08following all the international movement,
00:06:11right, no one is isolated, we keep hitting on this point here, that's
00:06:15why it's important to have all this movement on the radar, isn't it?
00:06:19Well, eh, what happens
00:06:22today in super interconnected markets, right,
00:06:26a cold in one is a sneeze in another, right, everything is done in a chain
00:06:29eh, and of course, we are seeing what happens, for
00:06:33example, when Trump tries to mess with these supply chains,
00:06:36right, eh, losing a client in this
00:06:39market is not simply thinking about... directing, look,
00:06:43this one buys less, I'll have to sell more to the other, it's the question
00:06:47of the mode of production, of standardization, you said it well about the Middle East,
00:06:51we already have a whole line of production and a production
00:06:54chain adapted to this market, so changing that is not
00:06:58easy, that's why you have to be attentive because eh any
00:07:01geopolitical change
00:07:04or even changes in habits or customs in a
00:07:07country interferes with the global economy so quickly and
00:07:11increasingly with the speed of information, exactly, right,
00:07:14let's just remember here, reinforcing with Brazilian companies that have
00:07:17already made investments also eh
00:07:21in the Middle East as we mentioned, so it's a whole
00:07:24chain that has to really keep the radar on.
00:07:28There's another topic here, Ricardo, and it's
00:07:31important too, I'd like your analysis, because the International
00:07:35Monetary Fund made an alert about the rise in food
00:07:38and energy prices that could keep global
00:07:42inflation expectations high. According to an
00:07:45IMF survey, in the last 5 years, tension
00:07:49and conflicts between nations aggravated the increase in
00:07:53prices of essential products and compromised the
00:07:56cost of living, especially for the poorest families. The poorest
00:08:00always suffer more, unfortunately. The study, which also
00:08:03presented a new economic model to analyze the impact of inflation on the poorest
00:08:07segment of the population, estimates that between
00:08:102021 and 2024,
00:08:13more than 23 million people fell below
00:08:16the extreme poverty line.
00:08:20For the IMF, global tensions can impact not only in the
00:08:24short and medium term global inflation, but also the cost of
00:08:27living on average 3 years after crises and
00:08:31conflicts, leading central banks to raise interest rates. How
00:08:35do you see this whole scenario, huh? It's a regrettable
00:08:38warning, because it affects exactly those who should be
00:08:42most protected, the poorest segment of the
00:08:45population, and it's very focused on conflicts, right,
00:08:49for example, eh, Russia and Ukraine that has been going on for a long
00:08:52time, and we know the importance of
00:08:56pesticides, of fertilizers that come from that
00:08:59region of the world, eh, and that makes things more expensive, without them we don't have
00:09:02scale of production, without scale it gets too expensive,
00:09:06right, the costs, this is not just for Brazil, this is for the whole world, the
00:09:10other conflict is in the Middle East that affects
00:09:13oil, we know that eh oil
00:09:16is for the movement of agricultural machinery, but
00:09:19also as food are low-value
00:09:23commodities, the fuel itself in transport
00:09:26until it reaches the point of sale in retail, it is a very
00:09:30strong component because they are low-value products, so it
00:09:34impacts too much and who suffers is who earns less,
00:09:37because a good part or most of the consumption of these
00:09:40more vulnerable families is in subsistence, that's what
00:09:44they use their household budget for, and then the IMF's
00:09:48statement is focused on these issues of global
00:09:51tensions, but we must not forget the risks to
00:09:55food and energy that global warming means,
00:09:58like this El Niño that has projections to
00:10:01arrive at the end of the year which can also worsen the situation, so it's not
00:10:05just the global conflict, or international
00:10:08conflict, exactly. Let's keep an eye on all of this.
00:10:11Well, there's another piece of data
00:10:15coming in, Brazilian retail has high
00:10:17expectations for Children's Day, today, right, R$ 9
00:10:21billion is the revenue that entrepreneurs expect to collect with the date.
00:10:25celebrated, including today, you see, this
00:10:28value is also included, this would be the largest sales volume for the
00:10:32sector in 12 years, this is because
00:10:34toys are no longer thought only for children, there is a
00:10:38large portion of adults with nostalgia in their hearts, these are
00:10:42people who look for products like cards, collectible dolls,
00:10:45toy cars and video games, toys aimed at teenagers and adults
00:10:49had an increase, do you know how much, 50% in
00:10:53revenue, according to data from
00:11:03habits are changing, we notice that
00:11:06today adults get married later, have
00:11:09children later, so part of the budget ends up
00:11:13having space eh for these issues, right, the
00:11:16cosplays that gain so much space, right,
00:11:19we see a significant change in consumption habits,
00:11:22the confederation... National Confederation of Commerce estimates that
00:11:26retail will move 9.3 billion reais, the
00:11:29credit card association is at 20 billion eh
00:11:33and talking about a growth of
00:11:367.5%. This also reflects here in Brazil
00:11:40the labor market that now tends to
00:11:43cool down because of these interest rates, but it still comes
00:11:46heated, unemployment at historical lows, so this
00:11:50facilitates, so much so that we
00:11:54intention of spending on gifts which is R$
00:11:57232 in the southeast, 227 in the
00:12:00south, following this average for the rest of Brazil, which is quite
00:12:04significant, it means eh
00:12:07market, a population with more willingness to
00:12:10shop, which has been changing eh at a
00:12:13very
00:12:39that's important, right, within the possibilities,
00:12:42it's also part of the child understanding what's possible and what's not,
00:12:46that makes them a more conscious adult, avoids
00:12:49bigger problems later on, but it's interesting
00:12:52to note that the revenue from... toy sales has a growth forecast
00:12:56of 17% for children's toys for the
00:12:59children themselves and 50%,
00:13:03as you said, for young people and for adults and
00:13:06young people, right, so it's a very new
00:13:09scenario, this opens up other fields, opens up other
00:13:13market fronts that can still
00:13:29kitchen. Specialists explain that children who prepare meals with their
00:13:33parents are more likely to create healthy eating habits
00:13:37that can last a lifetime. Getting
00:13:41hands-on, a lot of concentration. At 8
00:13:44years old, Stephanie already ventures into recipes, the kitchen is her
00:13:48favorite place. For her mother, cooking together became an
00:13:51opportunity to stimulate the child's development. They say...
00:13:55it also involves the motor coordination,
00:13:57her sociability that she already wants to take, right, 'I'll take it
00:14:01to a friend'. Yuri also participates in preparing the family's
00:14:05meals. 'I help my mom when I'm in the kitchen,
00:14:09scrambled eggs, grilled cheese, we also help make
00:14:12barbecue'. This learning is important given a scenario
00:14:16that worries specialists. Data
00:14:19from the United Nations Children's Fund shows that
00:14:22overweight children and adolescents doubled in just over
00:14:26two decades. The consumption of ultra-processed foods
00:14:30is among the factors that require attention. Offering
00:14:33healthy foods is the healthiest way to make
00:14:37these children grow and develop in the best
00:14:41possible way. And it's not just about learning to cook. When
00:14:44children participate in the preparation of
00:14:47meals, they also discover new
00:14:50flavors, textures and foods. An experience
00:14:54that can help create healthier habits
00:14:56early on. What we want is to prepare our children for the world,
00:15:00right? That they learn some things
00:15:04that are really
00:15:06useful from an early age.
00:15:08The intense heat increased the demand for energy in Manaus, consumption
00:15:12grew 14% compared to the September 2025
00:15:16record. It's the fifth consumption record registered in the electrical
00:15:19system that serves the Amazonian capital and municipalities in the metropolitan
00:15:23region. This is a... period of high temperatures,
00:15:26frequent episodes of smoke, so Brazilian Air
00:15:29Force aircraft arrived in Manaus to reinforce the fight
00:15:33against forest fires that have already lasted 5 days, more than
00:15:3612,000 liters of water are expected to be dropped
00:15:40Monday. Yesterday, the air quality in the capital of Amazonas was considered
00:15:44terrible. The city hall suspended outdoor events because
00:15:47of the fires.
00:15:51Once again, the Iguaçu Falls walkway is closed due to high water flow.
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00:20:46The rain affecting the entire state of Rio Grande do Sul is increasing
00:20:50river levels. The worst situation is in cities that
00:20:53border Argentina, the Uruguay River is above flood
00:20:57level, the rain that hasn't stopped since last Monday
00:21:01caused damage in 18 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul, a survey
00:21:05by civil defense indicates more than 11,000 people affected, in
00:21:08Itaqui, 700 km from Porto Alegre, water invaded the
00:21:12streets, more than 70 people are displaced, in
00:21:16Porto Alegre, in the first 10 days of the month it has already rained more than
00:21:20half of what was expected for October, even so, the level of Guaíba
00:21:23is not yet a concern. In the other rivers, the trend is
00:21:27stabilization in the coming
00:21:29hours. The water flow of the Iguaçu Falls
00:21:33got so high that the walkway had to be closed
00:21:36again. The Iguaçu River reached to discharge about
00:21:408,800 thousand liters of water per
00:21:43second. It's almost six times the normal volume. The
00:21:46increase is due to the heavy rains that hit Paraná in recent days
00:21:50and, according to the park administration, visitation
00:21:54continues normally. Look at the force of the water,
00:21:57huh? The storm that hit the interior of São Paulo
00:22:00caused flooding, invaded properties and knocked down
00:22:03trees. In Campinas, the rain accumulated almost 60
00:22:07mm and civil defense registered occurrences in
00:22:11different parts of the city. A car was hit by a
00:22:14tree, but there are no reports of injuries. In Paulínia there were also
00:22:18floods in streets
00:22:20and a commercial establishment also got flooded, the city hall
00:22:24teams monitor the affected areas and make preventive
00:22:27blockades in some
00:22:29roads.
00:22:31And the walkway of the Iguaçu National Park, which we just showed, should remain
00:22:35closed, as the forecast for rain is continuous for
00:22:39today, as for the north, northeast, the dry and hot climate should prevail, let's
00:22:43see.
00:22:50will be an alert for intense rain this
00:22:53Monday, the biggest highlights are Santa
00:22:56Catarina and Paraná. The humidity coming from Paraguay
00:23:00favors thunderstorms throughout the day, while Rio
00:23:03Grande do Sul has more isolated showers. Going
00:23:07to the Southeast, the weather will be moderately
00:23:10unstable in São Paulo, it may rain in the capital
00:23:14of São Paulo. Rio de Janeiro and the southern part of Minas Gerais also
00:23:17expect rain. In the Central-West,
00:23:21highlights are Mato Grosso do Sul and western Mato
00:23:24Grosso. In the Northeast, the holiday will be sunny
00:23:27with high temperatures in most of the region and
00:23:31northern part of the country, the beginning of the week is with rain in
00:23:35Amazonas and Rondônia, also highlighted is
00:23:38Tocantins. This Monday, maximum of
00:23:4117 degrees in Porto Alegre and 26 in São
00:23:44Paulo, while Palmas and Cuiabá have heat of up to
00:23:4837°.
00:23:52Let's continue now our tour around Brazil to know what to expect from the weather
00:23:55today and tomorrow, who will give us all the details is
00:23:59meteorology specialist and Climatempo spokesperson, Maria Clara Sasac. Maria
00:24:03Clara, good afternoon to you, always
00:24:20rain in the south of the country, isn't it?
00:24:22Exactly, this rain will continue, Kelly, throughout this whole week
00:24:26we have conditions for instabilities in the south, we saw that the river levels
00:24:30are quite high since the Rio Grande do Sul, passing through Santa Catarina and
00:24:34even the state of Paraná, the tendency is that areas of
00:24:37instability will still act in the coming days between Paraguay
00:24:41and Argentina and end up bringing conditions for heavy
00:24:44clouds west of the state of Paraná also west of
00:24:48Santa Catarina, so the FOS region. Iguaçu, Cascavel region, even
00:24:51areas of the northwest of the state, Loanda region, in Paraná,
00:24:55Maringá, Londrina, has potential for storms throughout
00:24:59this week, heavy rain with gusts of
00:25:02wind that can reach up to 70, 80
00:25:05km/h and the potential for hail is not ruled out either, now speaking of the
00:25:08region and speaking of Rio
00:25:12Grande do Sul, in fact now, Kelly, we had a decrease in instabilities
00:25:15there, so for now, at the beginning of
00:25:19the week, we should not have significant rains, which
00:25:22favors the decrease in the level of the rivers that overflowed in
00:25:26several points of the state, now the level should drop because the rain is concentrated
00:25:30mainly in the states of Santa Catarina, Paraná,
00:25:33some areas also of Mato Grosso do Sul and border areas between
00:25:37Paraná and São Paulo, Kevin. Look Clara, just to make
00:25:40it clear to everyone, this heavy rain in the south is
00:25:44normal for this time or is it already an effect
00:25:47of El Niño?
00:25:49It is normal. that it rains with higher accumulated volumes at this
00:25:53time of year in the states of the southern region of Brazil, but we are
00:25:56with the effect of El Niño, which is of strong, of
00:26:00very strong intensity, it is the largest scale of El Niño that we
00:26:03have reached so far and we have a favorable condition
00:26:07for these rains in the southern region of Brazil, when we have
00:26:10El Niño acting normally, the rains increase in the south and decrease
00:26:14between the north and northeast, an El Niño of strong intensity or of
00:26:18very strong intensity, as is the case of what we have now,
00:26:21these rains end up being potentiated, which is why the
00:26:25volumes are high, much higher than normal, much more
00:26:29higher than the average and several regions have already had rains... approaching
00:26:32the climatological average for this month, some have already even
00:26:36exceeded and it is precisely the effect of the El Niño phenomenon, an increase in
00:26:40rains in the southern region of Brazil and severe drought between
00:26:43the states of the north and northeast, including it is something that has
00:26:47potentiated the effect of the fires in the northern region of
00:26:51Brazil, we saw news in the last few days of several
00:26:54areas suffering from fires in the northern region, it is precisely because of this
00:26:58effect of little rain or no rain in the northern states
00:27:02of... this part of the country, that's right, I mentioned earlier that the FAB is sending
00:27:05today, right, sent planes today to reinforce the fight against the
00:27:09flames, so it's a very complicated situation, because when we talk about
00:27:12air quality, it impacts the health of the population,
00:27:15right, certainly, not only the
00:27:19issue of air quality, right Kelly, but these
00:27:22large-scale fires are very difficult to control, for
00:27:26this week we have a forecast of rains that should advance to
00:27:29areas of the north and northeast, hitting some... there in the interior of the
00:27:33northeast, even the region of Manaus that has suffered from dry
00:27:37weather, but these are very irregular and very localized rains,
00:27:41they do not help in a generalized way to contain
00:27:44these large-scale fires, so
00:27:48monitoring is necessary, even if we have this rain forecast for the
00:27:52coming days, the temperatures will remain
00:27:54high, of course they don't reach 40 degrees because the humidity increases,
00:27:58but the maximum forecast for this week is around 36,
00:28:0230... 7 degrees, it's a very high temperature for
00:28:05these areas of the northern region, even with a rain forecast, so there's a
00:28:09rain forecast, but it doesn't help, it doesn't cool down the
00:28:12situation much regarding the control of fires, the water deficit of the
00:28:16soil, the soil is very dry and this condition of rains does not
00:28:3026 degrees of temperature and...
00:28:32it's from homes in real, look, there are people on the beach, of course,
00:28:35enjoying it because it's hot, despite the weather
00:28:39being a little cloudy, right, will it rain in Rio de Janeiro or
00:28:43not? We can have rains yes,
00:28:46Kelly, between this afternoon and tomorrow morning we still
00:28:50have a lot of instability, because we had a cold front in the southeast of
00:28:53Brazil, it even caused storms during the weekend during
00:28:57Sunday afternoon in the state of São Paulo and now it has advanced
00:29:00towards Rio de Janeiro, it is more over the ocean than on the continent, but it ends up
00:29:04leaving a lot of cloudiness there along the
00:29:07coast of Rio de Janeiro, in the region, uh, the southern half
00:29:10of the state, São Paulo also with a lot of cloudiness now and
00:29:14scattered showers are not ruled out during the next few hours, so much
00:29:17attention to those who are going home, who are going to hit the road now
00:29:21in the next few hours, because there is potential for rains that make the roads
00:29:25slippery and those who go to the mountain areas also have potential
00:29:29for the formation of some mist, some fog that makes...
00:29:32visibility impaired, it is a
00:29:36moment when the roads become very busy in the
00:29:39southeast of Brazil precisely because of this return from the holiday, so it is a
00:29:43condition that deserves a lot of attention, these
00:29:46adverse weather conditions on the roads, the rain will not be
00:29:50voluminous, there is no risk of storms as happened yesterday, but there is this
00:29:54alert for slippery roads
00:30:10Paulistanos?
00:30:13The same condition, we still have many clouds on the coast, Paulista capital,
00:30:16metropolitan region, Ribeira Valley and Paraíba Valley, and for the
00:30:20next few hours the same scenario, we may have rain during the
00:30:23night and also during the early morning, in the mountain stretches
00:30:27there is potential for the formation of mist and fog, so whoever is
00:30:30going home now in the next few hours, pay close attention, be very careful with the
00:30:34roads, be very careful with these mountain