Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:29of Hello and welcome to
00:00:32a worlds apart. If you were asked to describe the United States
00:00:35relationship with other countries in three words, what would you
00:00:39choose? Constructive, strategic and
00:00:43stable, are almost certainly not near the top
00:00:46of the list, and yet, according to President Trump and President
00:00:49She, this trial will supposedly form the basis
00:00:53of the US China relationship going forward. How realistic
00:00:57is that? Well, to discuss that I'm now joined by Andrew Lung a
00:01:01China specialist and Hong Kong's former chief representative
00:01:05for the UK, Russia and number of EU member states.
00:01:09Mr. Lung, it's great to talk to you, thank you very much for your
00:01:12of time. Thank you very much indeed, great to be on the show. We
00:01:16are recording this interview fresh after the Chinese president's visit to the
00:01:20United States, which resulted
00:01:21in a placatory tarif reduction agreement,
00:01:25but it's very hard not to be skeptical
00:01:29about how long it will stand given all
00:01:33the
00:01:34of complicated relationship between China and the United States in recent
00:01:38months, how do you take it? well, you have to look
00:01:42at the read out from Beijing,
00:01:46even before the meeting, and the meeting is
00:01:49expected to be defined by three words, according
00:01:53to in line with your opening remarks, but the three words are quite
00:01:57different, the three words are:
00:02:00in constructive, strategic and stability, constructive,
00:02:04strategic, stability are the three words which
00:02:08a
00:02:09of Chinese side, they hope that would define the
00:02:12relationship, first of all, what does these three words mean?
00:02:16constructive means um both countries should
00:02:20stay away from asser
00:02:24some mentality, looking
00:02:27at what could be achieved. realistically on both
00:02:32of sides um strategic means both sides should address each
00:02:35other's core interests
00:02:37of because
00:02:37the core interests do not go inside um stability
00:02:41means that both countries should avoid a zero some
00:02:45in game which could spiral out of control towards
00:02:49hot war confrontation so these are the three words but
00:02:52reality yes i say more complicated well
00:02:55of when the chinese president is using this exact phrase
00:02:59constructive. strategic stability, and I fully understand what it
00:03:03means, but this phrase uh seems to be uh completely out
00:03:06of the Trump's administration uh scope and style of
00:03:10operation,
00:03:11in so when the Chinese uh rely on that, is it more
00:03:15about value projection about perhaps a virtue
00:03:18of signaling
00:03:19of or they indeed believe that the Americans can
00:03:23commit themselves to behaving like that with any nation,
00:03:27let let alone China, well of course that's what China. hopes,
00:03:31because what China wants is not to replace the United
00:03:34States dominance, because
00:03:37of neither China is interested, nor is China capable
00:03:42of me of replicating 800 military bases around the
00:03:45world, and China does not have the
00:03:48dominance of his currency, um, and
00:03:52and
00:03:52of let alone does China's philosophy, so China wants a more
00:03:56stable world, so as to grow is economy, so... to
00:04:00achieve is vision of renaissance,
00:04:03achieving the so-called second centenary goal, whereby by
00:04:09of 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of Chinese republic of China, China will
00:04:13become an advanced socialist country,
00:04:16bringing the standard of living of his people, but of
00:04:20course that that would mean that China
00:04:23has find itself challenging the
00:04:26dominance
00:04:27of the United States in various fields. in the fields of
00:04:32a technology, in the field of of courseum group supply and
00:04:36value chain. China after all, it's the largest trading
00:04:39partner to 128 countries around the world, so I think that these are
00:04:43structural differences which translate into a
00:04:47long-term um riley between the two
00:04:50countries. Now m, just as you said, President She and
00:04:54of President Trump represent very different systems and they
00:04:57also personally and nationally. operate on such
00:05:01drastically different world views that it's hard to believe that
00:05:05in they could ever come to a lasting and mutually
00:05:08satisfying arrangement and from the
00:05:10of outside, at least from Russia, it
00:05:12looks like... the americans are trying to manage their own
00:05:14decline by trying to drag China
00:05:18down, is it uh how it's perceived in
00:05:21China? well of course that was perceived by
00:05:25many people in China that the United States is placing
00:05:29road blocks to contain China's rise, but on the
00:05:33end, as I explained earlier, that's a structural kind
00:05:37of result um from the
00:05:40continuing dominance the... stays in many fields
00:05:43and also President Trump's agenda of
00:05:47making American great again, thinking American can
00:05:50maximize its dominance to to
00:05:54prolong his agemony, so
00:05:57that's is
00:05:58not a matter of rhetoric is a reality, and I think China understands
00:06:02that, but I think that China hopes that by bringing
00:06:06to leaders together, they can better understand each
00:06:09other um without kind of.
00:06:12ri kind of vision, but at
00:06:16least the truth is now some sort of a truth
00:06:20as is being realized, but for very short
00:06:23term, you can see that that
00:06:25there was a stoppage of terrorists, but only for a couple of months and the
00:06:29reason for this very short periods suggest that the
00:06:33rivery is likely to continue, why a couple of months because
00:06:36president Trump wants to have a scenario
00:06:40where where he can narrate? kind of um
00:06:44long-term peaceful relationship with China um in the light the
00:06:48upcoming mid-term elections. You mentioned some uh statistics
00:06:51and uh my statistics, my figures slightly differ, I rely on
00:06:55the uh latest 2026 IMF report,
00:06:59but it also suggests that China is now the largest
00:07:03trading partner for 151 countries around the world
00:07:07as opposed to uh the United States being uh
00:07:1158 or 50. now any case it shows
00:07:14very substantial disbalance and if the Americans
00:07:18want to change that,
00:07:19I suppose they will need to offer the world something both
00:07:23positive and palatable, some genuinely new
00:07:27added value, just like China did to
00:07:31all these nations and encourage them to trade with it first
00:07:35and foremost, but the Americans still rely on the old narratives,
00:07:39on the old threats, plus you know the old...
00:07:42instrument of tariffs, why do
00:07:45you think they're so stuck in their ways? well, let's
00:07:48underestimate the United States, I mean United States
00:07:52have lot of very clever people, um, but all the reality
00:07:56stares them in the face in sense that after decades of
00:07:59outsourcing the manufacturing um facilities to
00:08:03around the world, not least to China, um, their
00:08:07manufacturing capacity is been hollow out, they
00:08:11no longer produce a lot of... products around the world, but they are good good
00:08:15at producing high end goods, they want to to to
00:08:18maintain their control over semiconductors
00:08:21and also um in AI there's a
00:08:25very keen competition, so they want to zero
00:08:29in on the commanding heights the
00:08:33the trade, not just every trade, but on the other hand, as
00:08:37I said, for the broad areas of trade, the
00:08:40capacity's been hot
00:08:41a while, but the... to focus on the commanding
00:08:45heights, so I think that this is the keen competition that slightly
00:08:48intensify on AI on high-tech
00:08:51technology, on on robotics
00:08:55and and drones and that kind of thing. now you talked about
00:08:59the American aspiration to secure that dominance at
00:09:03the so-called commanding heights and China has also
00:09:07made some inroads in that direction, I'm talking about its
00:09:10leverage over the Americans, it's uh
00:09:14access to rare earth materials which are critical for American
00:09:18manufacturing, including military manufacturing, how big of
00:09:22factor is that and without it, do you think the geopolitical
00:09:26situation between Washington and Beijing and perhaps even more broadly around the
00:09:30world, do you think it would have been the same? well, let's concentrate on the two
00:09:34examples as an illustration on the kind
00:09:37of continuing rivery, the first one is on
00:09:41maybe first you mentioned and the second is on
00:09:45AI, well as
00:09:46far as rare es concerned, let's not
00:09:49conflate the supply of rare earth with
00:09:53the processing, because supplied of rare earth is
00:09:57everywhere, mean the rare earths in in united states, rare earth in
00:10:01ukraine and greenland, canada, australia, all over the
00:10:04place, but then the rare earths are the
00:10:08rare elements, they need to be refined '
00:10:12and highly sophisticated and highly polluting process which China
00:10:16has perfected, China would continue to maintain this
00:10:20dominance, but again this dominance is not going to last
00:10:23forever and - countries um and not just the United
00:10:27States are going to find their own way to develop their
00:10:30capabilities, but it's likely to take maybe
00:10:33decades before that happens. now on
00:10:36AI, I think that the there's no
00:10:40doubt that again America is slightly ahead,
00:10:43but even then um the top officials
00:10:47admitted that the china is now 80 or even
00:10:5190% and only few months behind. but
00:10:55the big big difference is that the American put um almost
00:10:59selling their farm and putting all they have on um
00:11:03AI data centers. the second big difference is
00:11:06that the American AI ecology is based on
00:11:10fee charging, you can't use the AI model unless you pay, whereas
00:11:14China is now opening up, there's
00:11:16the open um open forum
00:11:19um and you like the internet at the beginning,
00:11:21it's open to everybody, so China's strategy is... based
00:11:25a, the mold is much cheaper, much more affordable
00:11:29um and to use and because it's free after all,
00:11:33secondly, it's compare very closely with
00:11:36the you fees pay kind of model, and then you have more people
00:11:40embrace the china's model, then china would have the
00:11:44advantage. now uh, I heard you also say in another interview that
00:11:47Trump's capriciousness could lead to a more balanced
00:11:51world as more and more countries seek various part. partnerships
00:11:55as a way of ensuring uh predictability of
00:11:59ensuring stability and also ensuring better deal as you
00:12:02licitated just now, if you can get a cheaper technology
00:12:06and with uh less restraints, why wouldn't you do that? mean
00:12:10ultimately the nation still have a
00:12:14degree of choice in the economic affairs, now that would still leave
00:12:17the united states as this wild card of
00:12:21international affairs as a disrupting force and I do want to
00:12:25ask you about that, do you think the Americans will continue
00:12:29relying on this uh disrupting strategy going forward or
00:12:33do you think sooner or later they will get they will have enough of it and
00:12:37will also want to ensure some predictability and
00:12:40stability for themselves perhaps on less grandiose
00:12:44grounds? well let to understand the dynamics are
00:12:48going ahead, one has got to understand American's dominance
00:12:52um um the unipo left. the polar world which
00:12:56existed after the second world war, other countries can
00:12:59compare American influence not only on the military but also in
00:13:03trade, in finance and in is the size of his
00:13:07economy and so on, and this so-called American
00:13:11led liberal world order is based on even though
00:13:14American own interests, because after all the
00:13:18rules are skilled and in favor the United States, but
00:13:21nevertheless there are some norms and some
00:13:25rules which American try to uphold so as to lift
00:13:29the bow for everybody and so that's to benefit um
00:13:32other allies and traders including especially china is benefit
00:13:36hugely
00:13:37by this American world liberal order but
00:13:40as I said at the beginning this orders now lies tatus as the Trump
00:13:44administration is imposing sanctions and tariffs and
00:13:48making petitory demands even for territory of his
00:13:52closest allies including Canada Greenland. and and and so
00:13:56on um and then um it's so capricious because one
00:14:00one hand they negotiating with Iran and while the negotiation
00:14:03going on the sending bombers and and and steal fighters and
00:14:07destroy their leadership so I think many countries are
00:14:11now um have now lost heart uh in this
00:14:14american world order but China is not prepared is
00:14:18notum entirely capable of replacing that because
00:14:22as I said China is now benefiting hugely. so I think that what
00:14:26China wants is a um at least growd is
00:14:29in self-reliance and technology, b) to be
00:14:33less succeptable to American dominance
00:14:37using the US dollar using bilateral
00:14:40trade currencies, the UAE or the Middle East are
00:14:44selling oil to China, why do they need to use the US dollar? so I think
00:14:48the same applies to country selling soy beans to China and so so
00:14:52forth and and gradually um more... countries
00:14:55trading between countries, not between individuals, because after
00:14:59all the US dollars still very useful,
00:15:01but between countries trading with China um directly in
00:15:05their own mutual currencies and that would have the effect of
00:15:09eroding the dollars dominance. well, Mr. Long, unfortunately
00:15:13you still haven't answered my direct question of whether you think the Americans will have
00:15:17had enough their sort of dominance
00:15:21claims and may resort to a more gradual and stable.
00:15:25arrangement with other nations, but let's address that question after a short
00:15:28break. We will be back a couple of moments. Stay
00:15:31tuned.
00:15:53There was a time indeed when we were quite accustomed
00:15:57to having half the globe dance to our
00:16:00tune.
00:16:04Who could possibly have imagined that in the 21st.
00:16:43Welcome back to World's Apart with
00:16:46Andrew Lung a China specialist and Hong Kong's former chief
00:16:49representative for the UK, Russia and number of
00:16:53EU member states. Mr. Lung, just before the break we discuss that
00:16:57the Americans are pretty used to uh getting their
00:17:01way uh a hard way by threats, by demands,
00:17:04by trying to be domineering uh
00:17:07and I ask you whether you think that uh soon or later they will find
00:17:11it that uh the strategy is no longer working,
00:17:15especially as more and more nations uh do take the
00:17:19liberty to build their relationships, diplomatic and economic
00:17:23relationships with China and with other international players, so
00:17:27do you think uh the Americans will ever get
00:17:30enough of this domineering strategy? well, I think that
00:17:34this
00:17:36um um hegemonic kind of mind. sit um is um
00:17:39deeply um within Donald Trump's
00:17:42personality um he think that the American of course is is is
00:17:46still the the greatest and most powerful country on the
00:17:50planet and and the United States according to
00:17:53his uh him and his followers has been short changed by
00:17:57is even by his allies so it's now um
00:18:01incomment upon him to change that uh by maximizing
00:18:04American's dominance on finance. with us
00:18:08dollar is military, so it's likely to continue with the
00:18:12Trump administration, but of course there are um increasing head winds
00:18:16as we have covered, both in China's able to
00:18:19withstand resilience and other countries a
00:18:23group of south recalibrating relationship with away
00:18:27from the United States, not to forsake United States all
00:18:31together, but at least balancing the trade, which result as you
00:18:34pointed out earlier uh in China. achieving huge
00:18:38surplus by pivating to the global south, so I think that
00:18:42this is like to continue, but I think that with democratic
00:18:45administration, things may be again recalibrated,
00:18:49because still Americans, the people set brick
00:18:53store on American's leadership the whole world
00:18:57order since the second world war, and then as you pointed out, they
00:19:01find that this kind of unilateral hegemonic mindset
00:19:05maybe hasn't is not working. and they may be
00:19:08recalibrating back uh towards a more
00:19:11beny relationship, but still
00:19:13the they will rely on Americans adominance in many fields including the
00:19:17military. let ask you about perhaps
00:19:21taking this relationship from a
00:19:24unilateral or bilateral format to a trilateral one, because
00:19:28there is lot of talk ahead the upcoming apac
00:19:32summit uh in China in November about a possible
00:19:35meeting between uh President Trump. President she and President
00:19:39Putin, um, do you think it's likely? Well,
00:19:43I would roll out the possibility, because after all President
00:19:46Trump has expressed the wish to attend the
00:19:49meeting, and as far as the host of that meeting, China's
00:19:53concerned Beijing of course would prefer Trump
00:19:57attending, and of course President Putin, which is
00:20:01very good friend with President C, so if the three leaders
00:20:05are there, why not organize?
00:20:07trilateral, at least dialogue, um, even though is
00:20:11unlikely to change the fundamental and structural
00:20:15differences, so I think that this is possible, but whether
00:20:19that happens um still remains to be seen, again there could be
00:20:23informal meetings and even if there's a formal meeting, I don't think it's
00:20:27unlighted to change the dynamics, for example the war on Ukraine is
00:20:30still going on, and the United States approach to the
00:20:34war um and is not always um
00:20:38and all force with russias and national security
00:20:42and then the Europeans of course are putting spanners in the works
00:20:45and the Europeans are al also some them are still maintaining
00:20:49very close. relationship with the United States
00:20:53to contain Russia over Ukraine, so
00:20:57I think that there are still fundamental differences, but as far as the trilateral
00:21:01meeting idea, it's no better idea so
00:21:04that the two or three dealers together at least talk things,
00:21:07not
00:21:08to talk things over, but at least establish a deeper understanding of each
00:21:11each other's position, for a long time the Americans had
00:21:15habit of treating such high-level visits not as a meeting
00:21:19of... or diplomatic necessity, but as reward
00:21:23for good behavior. now that clearly is not
00:21:26gonna work for either president Putin or president she, but I wonder
00:21:30if the tables by now have turned a little bit
00:21:34that President Trump may seek such an
00:21:37occasion more than the the the other two presidents,
00:21:41not because of any concrete deals, but just for the
00:21:44sake of groundstanding and personal gratification being
00:21:48pictured you know to... together with other
00:21:51presidents or leaders of great powers,
00:21:55wouldn't that tantilize president Trump's
00:21:59ego? well of course President Trump is a great master
00:22:02theatrics, um, he can turn the perception
00:22:06as according to the China saying, deer into a
00:22:10horse, you thinks is a horse, it would become a horse instead of
00:22:13deer, um, and so I think that his master of
00:22:17narrative, but on the other hand um "I think that if
00:22:21he wants things badly, he could really bend backwards as
00:22:24exemplified by his um fawing
00:22:27reception of president sea you ruling out the red carpet and
00:22:31meeting presidency and and his first lady a tamit
00:22:35has never been seen before, so I think that again is a
00:22:39theater, I think the both all the leaders and see through
00:22:42that, but it doesn't stop president C
00:22:46continue to play the game is very very good at, well..."
00:22:50"good rapport among leaders is definitely a very valuable asset
00:22:53in geopolitics, the Putin Shia relationship is a good
00:22:57example of that, but what do you think it means in case of Donald Trump,
00:23:01and isn't there a risk that President Trump, if that meeting
00:23:05indeed comes to pass, may feel a little bit left out
00:23:09given the puchin she bonchame that exists
00:23:12already, because president shi and president Putin do understand each other
00:23:16much a much deeper level and than President Trump." "
00:23:20relates to either one them? i think that the Beijing
00:23:24is much better master the kind of
00:23:28international and geopolitical dynamics
00:23:31even the perceptions in such important
00:23:35meetings witness president Trump's last visit to the brick
00:23:38summit. um, you can see on the theater, obviously India
00:23:42was trying to cosey up to president Putin and
00:23:46leaving the China's leader in the cold sometimes.
00:23:50with and also presidency afterwards
00:23:54make hasty exit from the the bricks
00:23:58meeting um but I think that as far as the Beijing is
00:24:02the host obviously he want to be to be seen to be
00:24:06respectful to both leaders to as United States
00:24:10and and after all Putins long-term
00:24:13allied and very good friends and so I think that this
00:24:16is um
00:24:19um presidency. trying to cheat both leaders with great respect and on
00:24:23even kill, now if that meeting uh indeed
00:24:26materialized, one the issues that seems to be offering itself up
00:24:30for discussion would be the resumption the talks on
00:24:34some sort of trilateral nuclear arms control treaty,
00:24:38and CNN reported the other day that China and the United
00:24:42States have already discussed reciprocal nuclear sites
00:24:45visits, do you think that um...
00:24:51you know deal has any potential given that China's nuclear
00:24:54arsenals at this point of time are substantially smaller than
00:24:58those the United States and Russia and clearly China wouldn't want
00:25:02to be uh reduced at that level, it would want to
00:25:06feel on on equal kill with other players,
00:25:10well
00:25:10I don't think the Briging necessarily wants a complete parity,
00:25:14because after all the modern nuclear weapons are warheds and much
00:25:18more powerful that those drop. on and
00:25:22nagasaaki and Hiroshima multiple times more
00:25:25powerful, so you don't need 100 nuclear warheads
00:25:29um to destroy nation, and now you look at the stock pile,
00:25:33um, Russia is the largest world's largest stop pile over
00:25:363ous, maybe 3,300, the United States is
00:25:40very closely behind over 300 and China is not even reaching
00:25:431ous, um, even though China doesn't want
00:25:47parity, obviously um um "you need a
00:25:51sufficient number to deploy them in strategic
00:25:55assets and theaters, but on the other hand,
00:25:58it's not in China's interest to see nuclear proliferation." as
00:26:02well as because then the more weapons um
00:26:06if there is an arms race especially with what's happening around the
00:26:10world over Ukraine and and on
00:26:14over Iran uh countries are beginning to feel
00:26:17especially the middle power countries they feel they're so
00:26:21now vulnerable to American military dominance and the only defense
00:26:25is possession and nuclear powers this could lead to proliferation around the
00:26:29world now what worries China of course is the perration in the Asian
00:26:33Pacific, particularly Japan and also other
00:26:37countries, and this was stabilized China's neighborhood, so China doesn't
00:26:41want to liberation, but nor does China want
00:26:44deliberate limitation of his nuclear arsenal. Mr.
00:26:48Long, you said that China is not striving towards nuclear
00:26:52parity, but at the same time it's been investing lot of
00:26:55resources into various nuclear facilities, and it has
00:26:59enormous technological and economic... provis
00:27:03something that perhaps neither Russia nor the United States can
00:27:07uh afford at the moment, and therefore there's been a lot of articles
00:27:10about how the Americans are concerned about uh
00:27:14China secretly expanding its nuclear weapons
00:27:17infrastructure. I guess my last question to you is whether you think that
00:27:21perhaps China doesn't mind the Americans being
00:27:24concerned uh about that issue and using it as a
00:27:28sort of psychological deterrent so that the Americans know...
00:27:32that while China is not uh like it's part of China's doctrine
00:27:36not to attack first, not to use nuclear strike first, but that the
00:27:40Americans know that it has something to respond
00:27:44with. I think no country wants to reveal is
00:27:47coreum military
00:27:51hardware or software completely to his
00:27:54arch um enemies or potential rivals
00:27:58and no doubt that technology is
00:28:01advancing or... nuclear war head front, for example, as I
00:28:05mentioned before, the war head drop in hirushiman aragasaki
00:28:09is now only as very very small fraction the power that can
00:28:13be unleashed with more than warheads, so I think that there is
00:28:16continuing research not only in China but in other countries,
00:28:20now whether China is remains ahead in certain
00:28:23technologies, that cannot be root out, but I don't
00:28:27think China is ready to reveal everything, no the United
00:28:30States, no Russia, um... but I think the danger
00:28:33is um on the one hand there is keen competition on
00:28:37AI, drone warfare and all that,
00:28:41because the technology is changing and then
00:28:43that the world becomes much more
00:28:46disruptive, on the other hand um and each
00:28:50country would stay ahead with the um as I said
00:28:54commanding highs in in in all
00:28:56the all fields where been AI or nuclear weapons or
00:28:59space technology um and even in
00:29:03how tray is going to be conducted, so I think that we are
00:29:07seeing a world which is totally up ended um
00:29:10and we are we are in for major change a number of
00:29:14key fields across the group. Okay, well Mr. Lung, this is
00:29:18all we have time for for now. Thank you very much for your
00:29:22insights, thank you very much indeed and thank
00:29:25you for watching, see you next week on world's
00:29:28apart.
00:29:57The deep state has its hands in everything. I was in the middle
00:30:00of it for decades. When I blew the whistle on CIA
00:30:04torture, the Deep State turned on me. They ruined my
00:30:08life, took away my rights, threw me in
00:30:11prison, but they didn't break
00:30:13me. I fought back
00:30:17and I still do. I'm John Kiriaku, on my
00:30:21show, the deep state, I take you behind the geopolitical moves, the color
00:30:25revolutions, behind the politics and the
00:30:27politicians. We shine a light on where the deep state is
00:30:31hiding.