Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:00quite different, the three words are
00:00:03in constructive, strategic and stability, constructive,
00:00:07strategic stability are the
00:00:10of three words which a Chinese side um they
00:00:14hope that would define the relationship. first of all, what does these
00:00:18three words mean? constructive means um both
00:00:21countries should stay away
00:00:24from
00:00:27mentality. looking at
00:00:31what could be achieved
00:00:33of realistically on both sides, strategic
00:00:36means both sides should
00:00:38of address each other's core interests because the core interests do not
00:00:42go inside um stability means that both countries should
00:00:46in avoid a zero some game which could a spiral
00:00:50out of control towards hot war confrontation
00:00:54so these are the three words but reality is the more
00:00:57complicated well
00:00:58of when the chinese present is using uh this exact phrase,
00:01:02of constructive strategic stability, and I fully understand what it means,
00:01:06but this phrase uh seems to be completely out
00:01:09of the Trump's administration
00:01:12in uh scope and style of operations, so when the Chinese uh
00:01:16rely on that, is it more about value
00:01:19of projection, about perhaps a virtue
00:01:22of signaling, or they indeed believe that the Americans can commit
00:01:26themselves to behaving like that with any nation let's let
00:01:30alone China, well of course that's what China hopes,
00:01:33because what China wants is not to replace the United
00:01:38of States dominance, because neither China is
00:01:43of me interested nor is China capable of replicating 800
00:01:47military bases around the world, and China does not
00:01:50have the dominance of his
00:01:53of currency, um, and and let alone that's China's philosophy,
00:01:57so China wants a more stable. so as to
00:02:01grow is economy, so as to achieve is vision
00:02:05of renaissance, achieving the so-called second
00:02:08centenary go,
00:02:10of whereby by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of
00:02:13Chinese republic of China, China will become an advanced
00:02:17socialist country bringing the standard of
00:02:21living of his people, but of course that that would mean
00:02:25that China has found itself
00:02:28challenging the dominant. uh
00:02:30of the United States in various
00:02:33a fields, in the fields of technology, in the field of of
00:02:36course um um group with supply and value chain. China
00:02:40after all, it's the largest trading partner, 228
00:02:44countries around the world, so I think
00:02:45that these are structural differences uh which translate
00:02:49into
00:02:50a um a long-term rivery between the two
00:02:54countries. Now Mr. Long, just as you said, President She and
00:02:57of President Trump represent very different systems. "and they
00:03:00also personally and nationally operate on such
00:03:04drastically different worldviews that it's hard to believe that
00:03:08in they could ever come to a lasting and mutually
00:03:11of satisfying arrangement and from the outside, at least from Russia, it looks like the
00:03:15Americans are trying to manage their own decline by
00:03:19trying to drag
00:03:21of China down, is it uh how it's perceived in
00:03:24China? well of course that's was perceived by
00:03:28many people in China that..." um the United States is placing
00:03:32road blocks um to contain China's
00:03:35a rice, of but
00:03:35of on the end, as I explained earlier, that's a
00:03:38structural kind of result um
00:03:45a of from of the um of and continuing dominance of the United States in many fields and also uh President Trump's
00:03:49agenda of making American great again, thinking American
00:03:53can maximize uh his dominance uh to con to
00:03:56prolong is hegemony um so... that's
00:04:00is
00:04:01not a matter of rhetoric, it's a reality, now I think China understands
00:04:05that, but I think that China hopes
00:04:07of that um by bringing two leaders together they can better
00:04:11understand each other um without a kind of
00:04:15star eye kind of vision, but
00:04:19at least the truth is now some sort of a
00:04:22truth as is being realized,
00:04:25of but for very short term you can see that that
00:04:28there was a stoppage of. but only for a couple of months and the
00:04:32reason for this very short periods suggest that the
00:04:36riley is likely to continue why a couple of months because
00:04:39president Trump wants to have um a scenario where
00:04:43where he can narrate a kind of um long-term
00:04:47peaceful relationship with China and in the light
00:04:50of the upcoming mid-term elections. you
00:04:53of mentioned some statistics and my statistics, my figures slightly
00:04:57differ, I rely on the uh latest 2 26th
00:05:00IMF report, but it it also suggests that China is
00:05:04now the largest trading partner for 151
00:05:08countries around the world as opposed to uh the United States.
00:05:12being uh 58 or 57, now any
00:05:16case it shows very substantial disbalance, and if the
00:05:20Americans want to change that, I suppose they will need
00:05:24to offer the world something both positive and
00:05:27palatable, some genuinely new added value, just
00:05:31like China did to all these nations and
00:05:35encourage them to trade with it, first and foremost uh, but
00:05:39the Americans still rely on the old narratives, on the old...
00:05:42threats plus
00:05:44you know the old instrument of tariffs, why do you
00:05:48think they're so stuck in their ways? well let's
00:05:51underestimate the united states, mean united
00:05:54states have lot of very clever people,
00:05:58but not the reality stares them in the face in sense that after
00:06:02decades of outsourcing the manufacturing um
00:06:05facilities to around the world, not least the china um
00:06:09their manufacturing capacity. is been hollow
00:06:13out, they no longer produce a lot the products around the world, but they
00:06:17are good good at producing high-end goods, they want
00:06:21to to to maintain their control over
00:06:23semiconductors
00:06:25um and also um in AI this very keen
00:06:28competition, so they want to zero in
00:06:32on the commanding heights the the trade,
00:06:36not just every trade, but on the other hand, as I said
00:06:40for the broad area. of tray, the capacity's been hot
00:06:44a while, but they want to focus on the commanding
00:06:48heights, so I think that this is the keen competition that slightly
00:06:51intensify on AI, on high-tech
00:06:54technology, on on robotics
00:06:58and and drones and that kind of thing. now you talked
00:07:02about the American aspiration to secure that
00:07:05dominance at the so-called commanding heights and China has
00:07:09also made some inroads in that direction and
00:07:12talking about its leverage over the Americans, particularly
00:07:15its uh uh access to rare earth materials which
00:07:19are critical for American manufacturing, including military
00:07:23manufacturing, how big of factor is that and without
00:07:27it, do you think the geopolitical situation between Washington and
00:07:31Beijing and perhaps even more broadly around the world, do you think it would have been the
00:07:34same? well let's concentrate on the two examples as an
00:07:38illustration on the kind of continuing
00:07:41ryway. "the first one is on uh maybe rare
00:07:45earth you mentioned and the second is on AI,
00:07:49well as far as rare earth is concern um let's not
00:07:52conflate the supply of rare earth with
00:07:56the uh processing because supplied rare earth is everywhere,
00:08:00mean the rare earths in in united states, rare earth in Ukraine
00:08:04and greenland, canada, australia all over the place, but
00:08:08then the rare earths are are the rare
00:08:12elements, they need to be refined and highly
00:08:16sophisticated and highly polluting process, which China has
00:08:19perfected, China would continue to maintain this dominance, but
00:08:23again this dominance is not going to last forever, and other
00:08:27countries, and not just the United States are going to find their own
00:08:31way to develop their capabilities, but it's likely to take
00:08:35maybe decades um before that happens. now on
00:08:39AI, um, I think that
00:08:42the um "there's no doubt that again, America is
00:08:45slightly ahead, but even the the top
00:08:49officials admitted the china is is
00:08:52now 80 or even 90% and only few
00:08:56months behind, but the big big differences that the American
00:09:00put um almost selling the farm and putting all
00:09:04they have on um AI data centers. the
00:09:08second big difference is that the American AI
00:09:11ecology. is based on fee charging, you can't use the AI
00:09:15model unless you pay, whereas China is now opening up is the
00:09:19open um open
00:09:21forum and you like the internet in the beginning, it's open to
00:09:25everybody, so China's strategy is based
00:09:28a the model is much cheaper, much more
00:09:31affordable um and to use and because it's free after
00:09:35all, secondly is compare very
00:09:38closely with the you fees pay kind of model
00:09:42and "if more people embrace the China's modelal, then China would
00:09:46have the advantage. now uh, I heard you also say in another
00:09:50interview that Trump's capriciousness could lead to a more
00:09:54balanced world as more and more countries seek various
00:09:57partnerships, as a way of ensuring uh
00:10:01predictability, of ensuring stability, and also ensuring better deal
00:10:04as you ellicidated just now, if you can get a cheaper
00:10:08technology and with less restraints, why wouldn't you?" "
00:10:12do that, mean ultimately the nation still have
00:10:15a degree of choice in the economic affairs, now
00:10:18that would still leave the united states
00:10:22as this wild card of. national affairs as a
00:10:26disrupting force and i do want to ask you about that,
00:10:30do you think the Americans will continue relying on this
00:10:33disrupting strategy going forward or do you think sooner or
00:10:37later they will get, they will have enough of it and will also
00:10:41want to ensure some predictability and stability for themselves
00:10:44perhaps on less grandiose grounds? well
00:10:48let to understand the dynamics going ahead,
00:10:52one has got to understand American's dominance. um
00:10:56um the unipal unipolar world which existed after the
00:11:00second world war, other countries can compare americans
00:11:03influence not only on the military but also in trade, in
00:11:07finance and in is the size of his economy and
00:11:11so on, and this so-called American led liberal
00:11:14world order is based on even though American
00:11:18own um and interest uh because after all the rules are
00:11:22skilled and in favor the United States but never... the less
00:11:26there are some norms and some rules which american
00:11:29try to uphold so as to lift the bow for everybody and
00:11:33so that's
00:11:34to benefit um other allies and traders including especially
00:11:38china, china is benefit hugely by this american world
00:11:42liberal order, but as I said in the beginning this orders now lies
00:11:46tatus as the Trump administration is imposing sanctions and
00:11:50tariffs and making petitory demands even for
00:11:54territory of... with closest allies including Canada,
00:11:57Greenland and and so on, and then it's so
00:12:01capricious, because one one hand they're negotiating with
00:12:04Iran, and while the negotiation going on, they sending bombers
00:12:08and and and steal fighters and destroy their leadership, so I
00:12:12think many countries are now have now
00:12:15lost heart in this American world order, but
00:12:19China is not prepared, it's notum entirely
00:12:22capable of replacing that. as I said China is now
00:12:26benefiting hugely, so I think that what China wants is
00:12:30a um, at least growat is and self-reliance and
00:12:34technology, b) to be less
00:12:37succeptable to American dominance using the US dollar
00:12:41using bilateral trade currencies,
00:12:45the UAE or the Middle East are selling oil to China, why do
00:12:49they need to use the US dollar, so I think the same applies to
00:12:52country selling soy beans to China and so... so forth and and
00:12:56gradually um more countries trading between
00:12:59countries, not between individuals, because after all the US dollar still very
00:13:03useful, but between countries trading with China
00:13:07um the directly in their own mutual currencies and that
00:13:10would have the effect of eroding the dollars
00:13:14dominance. well, Mr. Long, unfortunately
00:13:16you still haven't answered my direct question of whether you think the Americans will have
00:13:20had enough the sort of dominance
00:13:24claims and... may uh resort to a more gradual and
00:13:27stable arrangement with other nations, but let's address that question after a
00:13:31short break, we will be back a couple of moments, stay
00:13:34tuned!
00:14:03There's no end in sight over how you're going to continue to destroy the earth is the case
00:14:07the madness the people, I tried to go to the gym but I'm certainly not ready to fight
00:14:11Russia, this is all so absurd, this is third world lunacy,
00:14:14brainwashing, as poslion likes to say we have the
00:14:18tools, why don't we just start with stability and business deals,
00:14:22what planet I mean living on man, we have. with propaganda in
00:14:26our press here in Europe. I think we don't know the aftermath. Anytime
00:14:30that you're not allowed to ask questions, you should ask all the questions. The more
00:14:33questions asked, the better the answers will
00:14:36be.
00:14:44Welcome back to world's apart with Andrew Lung a China
00:14:48specialist and Hong Kong's former chief representative for the
00:14:51UK, Russia and number of EU members.
00:14:55Mr. Lung, just before the break, we discuss that the Americans are
00:14:59pretty used to uh getting their way, a
00:15:02hard way by threats, by demands, by trying to be
00:15:06domineering, and I ask you whether you think
00:15:10that sooner or later they will find it that
00:15:14uh, this strategy is no longer working, especially as more and more
00:15:17nations, do take the liberty to build their
00:15:21relationships, diplomatic and economic relationships with. and with
00:15:25other international players, so do you think the
00:15:29Americans will ever get enough of this
00:15:32domineering strategy? well, I think that
00:15:35this... one kind of mindset
00:15:38is deeply
00:15:41within Donald Trump's personality, he think that the
00:15:45American of course is is is still the the greatest and most
00:15:49powerful country on the planet and and the United
00:15:53States that according to his him and his followers has
00:15:57been short changed by is even by his allies so it's
00:16:00now um incument upon him to change that by
00:16:04maximizing American's dominance on finance
00:16:08with us dollar is military so it's likely to
00:16:11continue with the Trump administration, but of course there are
00:16:15increasing headwinds as we have covered both in China's
00:16:19able to withstand resilience and
00:16:22other countries a group of south recalibrating
00:16:26relationship with away from the United States
00:16:29not to forsake United States all together but at least balancing the
00:16:33tray which result as you pointed out earlier uh
00:16:37in China achieving huge surplus by
00:16:41proviting to the global south, so I think that this is like to continue, but I
00:16:45think that with democratic administration, things may be
00:16:49again recalibrated, because still Americans,
00:16:52the people set greak store on American's
00:16:55leadership the whole world order since the second world
00:16:59war, and then as you pointed out, they find that this kind of
00:17:03unilateral hegemonic mindset maybe hasn't
00:17:07is is not working and they may recalibrating
00:17:10back towards a more benig relationship, but
00:17:14still
00:17:14the they will rely on Americans at almens in many fields including the
00:17:18military. Let ask you about perhaps
00:17:22taking this relationship from a
00:17:25unilateral or bilateral format to a trilateral one, because
00:17:29there is lot of talk ahead the upcoming apex
00:17:32summit in China in November about the possible meeting
00:17:36between... president Trump, president she and President
00:17:40Putin, um, do you think it's likely?
00:17:43well, I would roll out the possibility, because after all President
00:17:47Trump has expressed the wish to attend the
00:17:50meeting, and as far as the host of that meeting, China is
00:17:54concern, being of course would prefer uh Trump
00:17:58attending, and of course President Putin, which is
00:18:02very good friend with President C, so if the three leaders
00:18:06are there, why not organize a
00:18:08trilateral, at least dialogue, even though is
00:18:12unlikely change the fundamental structural
00:18:16differences, so I think that this is possible, but whether
00:18:20that happens still remains to be seen, again there could be
00:18:24informal meetings and even if there is a formal meeting, I don't think it's
00:18:27unlikely to change the dynamics, for example the war on Ukraine is
00:18:31still going on, and the United States approach to the
00:18:35war
00:18:36um and is not on always
00:18:38um at all force with russias and national security
00:18:42uh and then the Europeans of course are putting spanish in the works
00:18:46and the Europeans are also also some them are still
00:18:49maintaining very close relationship with the United
00:18:53States to contain Russia over
00:18:57Ukraine so I think that there are still fundamental differences but as far as
00:19:01the trilateral meeting idea is no bad idea so that
00:19:05the two or three dealers together at least talk things. um, not
00:19:09talk things over, but at least establish a deeper understanding of each
00:19:12each other's position. for a long time, the Americans had
00:19:16habit of treating such high-level visits, not as a meeting
00:19:20of equals or diplomatic necessity, but as reward
00:19:23for good behavior. now that clearly is not
00:19:27gonna work for either president Putin or President Chi, but I wonder
00:19:31if the tables by now have turned a little bit that
00:19:35you know President Trump may seek. such an occasion more
00:19:39than the the the other two presidents, not because of any concrete
00:19:43deals, but
00:19:44you know just for the sake of grandstanding and personal gratification
00:19:48being pictured you know together with
00:19:52other presidents or leaders of great powers,
00:19:56wouldn't that tantalize President Trump's
00:19:59ego? well of course President Trump is a great master
00:20:03theatrics, um, he can turn um the
00:20:06perception. according to the China saying deer into
00:20:10a horse, you thinks a horse, it would become a horse instead of
00:20:14deer, um, and so I think that his master of
00:20:17narrative, but on the other hand, I think that if
00:20:21he wants things badly, he could really bend backwards as
00:20:25exemplified by his um fawing
00:20:28reception of president C, in the rolling the red carbit and
00:20:32meeting presidency and and his first lady a tamet
00:20:36has never been. before, so I think that again, it's a
00:20:40theatre, I think the both um, all the leaders and see through
00:20:43that, um, but it doesn't stop president C
00:20:47continue to play the game is very, very good at.
00:20:50Well uh, good rapport among leaders is definitely a very valuable
00:20:54asset in uh geopolitics, the Putin sheer relationship
00:20:58is a good example of that, but what do you think it means in case of Donald
00:21:02Trump, and isn't there a risk that President Trump, if that
00:21:06meeting indeed comes to pass, may feel a little bit left out
00:21:10given the Putin Chia bonjomy that exists
00:21:13already, because president she and President Putin do understand each other
00:21:17much a much deeper level and then..." President
00:21:20Trump uh relates to either one them? I think
00:21:24that the uh Beijing is much better master
00:21:28the kind of international and geopolitical
00:21:31dynamics even the perceptions in such
00:21:35important meetings, witness president Trump's last visit to the bricks
00:21:39summit, um, you can see on the theater, obviously India
00:21:43was trying to cose up to President Putin um and
00:21:47leaving the Chinese leader in the...
00:21:50sometimes with and also
00:21:53presidency after make hasty exit
00:21:57from
00:21:57the the brick meeting, but I think that as
00:22:01far as the Beijing is the host, obviously he want to
00:22:05be to be seen to be respectful to both leaders,
00:22:09to as United States and and after all Putin's
00:22:13long term allied and very good friends and so I
00:22:17think that this is - "presidency is
00:22:20trying to cheat both leaders with great respect and on even
00:22:24kill, now if that meeting uh indeed materialize,
00:22:28one the issues that seems to be offering itself up for discussion
00:22:32would be the resumption the talks on some sort of
00:22:36trilateral nuclear arms control treaty, and
00:22:39CNN reported the other day that China and the United States
00:22:43have already discussed reciprocal nuclear sites
00:22:46visits, do you think that um..."
00:22:50you know deal has any potential given that
00:22:54China's nuclear arsenals at this point of time a substantially
00:22:58smaller than those the United States and Russia and clearly
00:23:01China wouldn't want to be uh reduced
00:23:05at that level, it would want to feel on
00:23:08on equal kill with other players. Well, I don't think the
00:23:12briging necessarily wants a complete parity, because
00:23:15after all the modern nuclear weapons of warheads and much more powerful.
00:23:20that those drop on Nagasaki and
00:23:23Hiroshima multiple times more powerful, so you don't
00:23:27need 100 nuclear warheads um to destroy
00:23:31nation
00:23:32and now you look at the stock pile, Russia is the largest world's
00:23:36largest stop pile over 3ous maybe
00:23:393,300, the United States is very closely behind over
00:23:42300 and China's not even reaching 100,
00:23:46um even though China doesn't want parity obviously.
00:23:51you need a sufficient number to deploy them in
00:23:55strategic assets and theaters, but on the
00:23:58hand, it's not in China's interest to see
00:24:01nuclear proliferation as well as because then the more
00:24:05weapons
00:24:07um if there is an arms race especially with what's happening around the
00:24:11world over Ukraine and and on
00:24:15over Iran, countries are beginning to feel
00:24:18especially the middle. power countries, they feel they're so
00:24:22now vulnerable to American military dominance and the only defense
00:24:26is possession and nuclear powers, this could lead to periferation around the
00:24:30world. now what worries China of course is the population in the Asian
00:24:34Pacific, particularly Japan and also other
00:24:38countries, and this will stabilize China's neighborhood, so China doesn't
00:24:42want new preparation, but no does China want
00:24:45deliberate limitation of his nuclear arsenal. Mr.
00:24:49Lungu. "you said that China is not striving towards nuclear
00:24:53parity, but at the same time it's been investing lot of
00:24:56resources into various nuclear facilities, and it has
00:25:00enormous technological and economic provis,
00:25:04something that perhaps neither Russia nor the United States can
00:25:07uh afford at the moment, and therefore there's been a lot of articles
00:25:11about how the Americans are concerned about uh
00:25:15China secretly expanding its nuclear weapons
00:25:18infrastructure, "my last question to you is whether you think
00:25:22that perhaps China doesn't mind the Americans being
00:25:25concerned uh about that issue and using it as a
00:25:29sort of psychological deterrent so that the Americans know
00:25:33that while China is not like it's part of China's doctrine
00:25:37not to attack first not to use nuclear strike first but that
00:25:41the Americans know that it has something to respond
00:25:44with. I think no country wants to reveal uh is
00:25:48core uh..." military
00:25:52hardware, software completely to his
00:25:55arch um enemies or potential rivals
00:25:58and no doubt that technologies have...
00:26:03ing on the nuclear warhead front, for example, as I mentioned
00:26:06before, the warhead drop in Hiroshiman and Arakasaki is now
00:26:10only as very very small fraction the power that can be
00:26:14unleashed with more than warheads, so I think that there was continuing
00:26:18research, not only in China but in other countries, now whether
00:26:21China is remains ahead in certain technologies,
00:26:25that cannot be root out, but I don't think China is ready to
00:26:29reveal everything, no the United States, no Russia. um, but
00:26:33I think the danger is um, on the one hand there is keen
00:26:37competition on AI, drone warfare and all
00:26:41that, because the technology is changing and then
00:26:44that the world becomes much more um
00:26:47disruptive, on the other hand um and each
00:26:51country will stay ahead with the as I said
00:26:55commanding highs in in in all
00:26:57the all fields where been AI or nuclear weapons or
00:27:00space technology. um and even in
00:27:04how tray is going to be conducted, so I think that we are seeing
00:27:08a world which is totally up ended, and
00:27:12we are we are in for major change a number of key
00:27:15fields across the group. Okay, well, Mr. Lung, this is all we
00:27:19have time for for now, thank you very much for your
00:27:22insights, thank you very much indeed, and thank
00:27:26you for watching, see you next week on world's
00:27:29apart.
00:30:21and he should have an election and he can't raise the price of
00:30:24oil, it's done enough. Donald Trump says Kief needs a
00:30:28new leader as Washington lift sanctions a Russian diesel.
00:30:32supplies and that decision is deemed weak by Vladimir Zelenski and
00:30:36prompts a Ukrainian delegation to immediately leave the United
00:30:39States. The huti is
00:30:43worn against anyone using Saudi Airspace and it comes after
00:30:47devastating strike on Riyad's main airport leaving 12 people
00:30:50dead and more than 300 wounded. The hooutis confirm to
00:30:54RT that they were behind the attack. These
00:30:58attacks are Yemeny attacks.