Google Speech-to-Text API Automatic Transcription (Chirp). Treat it as a searchable index of what was broadcast, not a quotation record.
00:00:04in
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00:00:42Hello a of and welcome to worlds apart. If you were asked to
00:00:46describe the United States relationship with other countries in three
00:00:50words, what would you choose? Constructive,
00:00:53strategic and stable, are almost certainly not near
00:00:57the top
00:00:57of the list, and yet, according to... President Trump and President She,
00:01:01this true will supposedly form the basis
00:01:05of the US-China relationship going forward. How
00:01:08realistic is that? Well, to discuss that I'm now joined by Andrew Lung
00:01:12a China specialist and Hong Kong's former chief
00:01:15representative for the UK, Russia, and number of
00:01:19EU member states. Mr. Lung, it's great to
00:01:22of talk to you. Thank you very much for your time. Thank you very much indeed. Great to
00:01:26be on the show. We are recording this interview fresh.
00:01:30after the Chinese president's visit to the United States, which resulted
00:01:33in a placatory tariff reduction agreement,
00:01:37but it's a very hard not to be skeptical
00:01:41about how long it will stand given all
00:01:44the
00:01:46of complicated relationship between China and the United States in recent
00:01:50months, how do you take it? well, you have to look
00:01:54at the readout from Beijing
00:01:57even before the meeting, uh and the meeting is
00:02:01expected to be defined
00:02:02by three words
00:02:04um according to in line with your opening remarks, but
00:02:08the three words are quite different,
00:02:10the three words are
00:02:12in constructive, strategic
00:02:15and stability, constructive strategic stability are the
00:02:19of three words which a Chinese side um they
00:02:22hope that would define the relationship. first of all, what does these
00:02:26three words mean? constructive means ' both
00:02:30countries should stay away
00:02:33from asum
00:02:36mentality, looking at
00:02:40what could be
00:02:41of achieved realistically on both sides. um, strategic
00:02:45means both sides should
00:02:47of address each other's core interests, because the core interests do not
00:02:50coincide. stability means the both countries should
00:02:54avoid a zero sum game which could
00:02:58spiral out of control. towards hot war
00:03:01confrontation, so th these are the three words, but
00:03:05reality as
00:03:06i said more complicated, well when
00:03:07of the Chinese present is using uh this exact phrase,
00:03:11of constructive strategic stability, and I fully understand what it means,
00:03:15but this phrase seems to be completely out
00:03:18of the Trump's
00:03:21in administration scope and style of operation, so when the
00:03:23Chinese rely on that, is it more
00:03:27about value
00:03:28of projection, about perhaps? virtue signaling
00:03:31of or they indeed believe that the Americans can
00:03:34commit themselves to behaving like that with any nation
00:03:38let let alone China. Well of course that's what China
00:03:41hopes, because what China wants is not to replace the
00:03:45United
00:03:47of States um dominance, because neither China is
00:03:50me interested nor is China
00:03:52of capable of replicating 800
00:03:55military bases around the world, and China does not have the...
00:04:00dominance of his
00:04:02of currency, and and let alone that's China's philosophy,
00:04:06so China wants a more stable world, so as to
00:04:10grow is economy, so as to achieve is vision
00:04:13of renaissance, achieving the so-called second
00:04:17centenary goal,
00:04:18of whereby by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of
00:04:22Chinese republic of China,
00:04:24of China will become an advanced socialist country
00:04:27bringing the... the living of his people, but of
00:04:31course that that would mean that um China
00:04:35has um find itself challenging the
00:04:38dominance
00:04:39of the United States in various fields
00:04:41a in the fields of technology, in the field of of
00:04:45course um group with supplying value chain. China
00:04:49after all is the largest trading partner 228
00:04:52countries around the world, so I think
00:04:54that these are structural differences which translate
00:04:57into
00:04:58a um long-term riley between the two
00:05:02countries. now Mr. Long, just as you said, President She and
00:05:05of President Trump represent very different systems and they
00:05:09also personally and nationally operate on.
00:05:13drastically different world views that it's hard to believe that they
00:05:17could ever come to a lasting and mutually satisfying
00:05:20arrangement and from the outside at least from Russia, it looks like the
00:05:24Americans are trying to manage their own decline by
00:05:28trying to drag China down, is it how it's
00:05:32perceived in China? well of course that's what's perceived
00:05:36in by many people in China that the United States
00:05:40is placing road blocks ' to contain China's
00:05:43rice, but on the end, as I explained earlier, that's a
00:05:47structural kind of result from
00:05:51the
00:05:52um and continuing dominance the United States in many fields
00:05:55and also uh President Trump's agenda of
00:05:59making American great again, thinking American can
00:06:02maximize its dominance to con to
00:06:05prolong its hegemony, um so that's
00:06:09um is not a matter of rhetoric is a reality now. I think China
00:06:13understands that, but I think that China hopes that
00:06:16by bringing two leaders together they can better understand each
00:06:20other um without a kind of star
00:06:24eye kind of vision, but at
00:06:28least the truth is now some sort of a
00:06:31truth
00:06:32as is being realized, but for very short term,
00:06:36you can see that that
00:06:37there was a stoppage of terrorists, but only for a couple of months and the
00:06:41reason for this... very short periods suggest that the
00:06:44ry is likely to continue, why a couple of months? because
00:06:48President Trump wants to have um, I say scenario where
00:06:52where he can narrate kind of long-term
00:06:56peaceful relationship with China in the light the upcoming
00:07:00midterm elections. you mentioned some statistics and my
00:07:04statistics,
00:07:05my figure slightly differ, I rely on the uh latest
00:07:082026 IMF report, but it also
00:07:11suggests... that China is now the largest trading partner
00:07:15for 151 countries around the world as opposed
00:07:19to uh the United States being uh
00:07:2258 or 57. now any case it shows
00:07:26very substantial disbalance and if the Americans
00:07:30want to change that
00:07:31I suppose they will need to offer the world something both positive
00:07:35and palitable
00:07:37some genuinely new added value just like China did
00:07:41to
00:07:42you ' woo all these nations and encourage them to trade with
00:07:45it, first and foremost, but the Americans still rely on the
00:07:49old narratives on the old threats
00:07:52plus you know the old instrument of
00:07:55tariffs, why do you think they are so stuck in their
00:07:58ways? well, let's underestimate the United States, I mean
00:08:02United States have lot of very clever people,
00:08:06um, but all the reality stares them in the face in sense that
00:08:10after decades of outsourcing them... manufacturing um
00:08:14facilities to around the world, not least to China, um,
00:08:18their manufacturing um capacity is been hollowed
00:08:22out, they no longer produce a lot the products around the world, but they
00:08:26are good good at producing high end goods, they want
00:08:30to
00:08:30to to maintain their control over semiconductors
00:08:33and also in AI, this
00:08:37very keen competition, so they want to zero
00:08:40in on the commanding. heights the
00:08:44the trade, not just every trade, but on the other hand, as
00:08:48I said, for the broad areas of trade, the
00:08:52capacity has been hot out, but they want to focus on the
00:08:56commanding heights, so I think that this is the keen competition that
00:08:59slightly intensify on AI, on high-tech
00:09:03technology, on on robotics
00:09:07and and drones and that kind of thing, now you talked about
00:09:11the American. ration to secure that dominance
00:09:15at the so-called commanding heights and China has also uh
00:09:18made some inroads in that direction, I'm talking about its
00:09:22leverage over the Americans, particularly its
00:09:26access to rare earth materials which are critical for American
00:09:30manufacturing, including military manufacturing, how big of
00:09:34factor is that and without it, do you think the geopolitical
00:09:38situation between Washington and Beijing and perhaps even more broadly around the world,
00:09:42do
00:09:42you think... would have been the same, well let's concentrate on the two examples
00:09:46as an illustration on the kind
00:09:49of continuing rary, the first one is on
00:09:53maybe rare earth you mentioned and the second is on
00:09:57AI, well as far as rare earth is concerned um
00:10:01let's not conflate the supplied of rare
00:10:04earth with the processing because supply rare
00:10:08earth is everywhere, mean the rare earths in in united states rare
00:10:11earth. in Ukraine and the Greenland, Canada,
00:10:15Australia, all over the place, but then the rare earths are are
00:10:19the rare elements, they need to be
00:10:23refined and highly... sophisticated and highly
00:10:26polluting process which China has perfected, China would
00:10:30continue to maintain this dominance, but again this dominance
00:10:34is not going to last forever, and other countries, not
00:10:38just the United States are going to find their own way to develop
00:10:41their capabilities, but it's likely to take maybe
00:10:44decades before that happens. now on
00:10:48AI, um, I think that the there's no doubt
00:10:52that again, America is slightly... head, but
00:10:55even then um the top um officials
00:10:59admitted that the china is is now 80 or
00:11:02even 90% and only few months uh
00:11:05behind, but the big big difference is that the American
00:11:09put um almost selling the farm and putting all
00:11:13they have on
00:11:14um AI data centers. the second big difference is that
00:11:18the American AI ecology is based on fee
00:11:22charging, you can't use the AI model unless pay whereas China is now
00:11:26opening up is the open um open
00:11:30forum um and you like the internet in the beginning is over to
00:11:34everybody so China the strategy is based
00:11:37a the modu is much cheaper much more
00:11:40affordable um and to use and because it's free after
00:11:43all um secondly it's compare very
00:11:47closely with the you fees pay kind of model and
00:11:51then you have more people embrace the china's model then china would
00:11:55have the advantage. now uh, I heard you also say in another
00:11:59interview that Trump's capriciousness could lead to a more
00:12:02balanced world as more and more countries seek various
00:12:06partnerships as a way of ensuring uh
00:12:10predictability of ensuring stability and also ensuring better deal
00:12:13as you ellicidated just now, if you can get a cheaper
00:12:17technology and with uh less restraints, why wouldn't you
00:12:21do that? I mean, ultimately, the nation still have...
00:12:25a degree of choice in the economic affairs, now that would still leave
00:12:29the United States as this wild card of
00:12:33international affairs as a disrupting force, and I do want to
00:12:37ask you about that, do you think the Americans will continue
00:12:41relying on this uh disrupting strategy going forward, or do you
00:12:45think sooner or later they will get they will have enough of it and will
00:12:49also want to ensure some predictability and
00:12:52stability for themselves perhaps a less grand yours
00:12:56grounds, well let to understand the dynamics
00:13:00going ahead, one has got to understand Americans
00:13:03dominance um the unip unipolar
00:13:07world which existed after the second world war, other countries
00:13:11can compare American influence not only on the military but also
00:13:15in trade, in finance um and in is the size of his
00:13:19economy and so on, and this so-called American
00:13:22led liberal world order is... based on even though
00:13:26American own interest because after all the
00:13:30rules are skilled and in favor the el states, but
00:13:33nevertheless there are some norms and some
00:13:36rules which American try to uphold so as to
00:13:40lift the b for everybody and so that's to benefit
00:13:44um other allies and traders including especially china, china
00:13:48is benefit hugely by this American world liberal
00:13:51order, but as I said in the beginning this order is now lies in.
00:13:55tatus as the Trump administration is imposing sanctions and
00:13:58tariffs and making petitory demands even for
00:14:02territory of his closest allies including Canada,
00:14:06Greenland and and so on, and then it's so
00:14:10capricious because one one hand they negotiating with
00:14:13Iran, and while the negotiation going
00:14:16on, they sending bombers and and and steal fighters and destroy their
00:14:19leadership, so I think many countries are
00:14:23now have now lost. part in this
00:14:26american world order, but China is not prepared, it's
00:14:30not entirely capable of replacing that,
00:14:33because as I said China is now benefiting hugely, so I think that
00:14:37what China wants is a at least growd is
00:14:41in self-reliance and technology, b) to
00:14:45be less succeptable to American dominance
00:14:48using the US dollar using bilateral
00:14:52trade currencies, the UAE or if the middle east are
00:14:56selling oil to China, why do they need to use the US dollar? so I think
00:15:00the same applies to country selling soy beans to China and so so
00:15:04forth and and gradually um more countries
00:15:07trading between countries not between individuals because after
00:15:10all the US dollars still very useful uh but between countries trading
00:15:14with China um the directly in their own mutual
00:15:18currencies and that would have the effect of
00:15:21eroding the dollars dominance. well Mr. Long and you
00:15:25still haven't answered my direct question of whether you think the Americans will have
00:15:29had enough the sort of dominance
00:15:32claims and may resort to a more gradual and
00:15:36stable arrangement. with other nations, but let's address that question after a
00:15:40short break, we will be back a couple of moments, stay
00:15:43tuned.
00:16:07The Deep State has its hands in everything. I was in the middle
00:16:11of it for decades. When I blew the whistle on CIA
00:16:15torture, the Deep State turned on me. They ruined my
00:16:19life, took away my rights, threw me in
00:16:22prison, but they didn't break
00:16:24me. I fought back
00:16:28and I still do. I'm John Kiriaku, on my
00:16:32show, the Deep State, I take you behind the geopolitical moves, the color
00:16:36revolutions, behind the... politics and the
00:16:38politicians, we shine a light on where the deep state is
00:16:42hiding,
00:16:53welcome back to world's apart with Andrew Lung a China
00:16:56specialist and Hong Kong's former chief representative for the
00:17:00UK, Russia and number of EU member states.
00:17:04Mr. Lung, just before the break we discuss that America. are
00:17:07pretty used to uh getting that way uh a
00:17:11hard way by threats, by demands, by trying to be
00:17:15domineering uh, and I ask you whether you think
00:17:19that uh soon or later they will find it that uh,
00:17:23you know, this strategy is no longer working, especially as more and more
00:17:26nations uh do take the liberty to build the
00:17:30relationships diplomatic and economic relationships with China and with
00:17:34other international players, so do you think... the
00:17:37americans will ever get enough of this
00:17:41domineering strategy? well, I think that
00:17:44this
00:17:46um um hegemonic kind of mindset is
00:17:49deeply within Donald Trump's
00:17:52personality, he think that the American of course is is
00:17:56is still the the greatest and most powerful country on the
00:17:59planet and and the United States according to
00:18:03his him and his followers has been short changed
00:18:07by this even by his allies, so it's now um
00:18:10incument upon him to change that by maximizing American's
00:18:14dominance on finance, with us dollar,
00:18:18is military, so it's likely to continue with the Trump
00:18:22administration, but of course there are um increasing headwinds as we
00:18:26have covered, both in China's able to withstand
00:18:30resilience and other countries in the group of south
00:18:33recalibrating relationship with away from the...
00:18:37states uh not to forsake United States all together, but at
00:18:41least balancing the trade, which result, as you pointed out
00:18:45earlier in China achieving huge
00:18:48surplus by pivating to the global south, so I think that
00:18:52this is like to continue, but I think that with democratic
00:18:55administration uh things may be again recalibrated,
00:18:59because um still Americans the people set greak
00:19:03store on American's leadership um the whole world
00:19:06order. since the second world war, and then as you pointed out, they
00:19:10find that this kind of unilateral hegemonic mindset
00:19:14maybe hasn't is not working, and they may be
00:19:17recalibrating back towards a more
00:19:21beny relationship, but still
00:19:23the they would rely on Americans at dominance in many fields including the
00:19:27military. Let ask you about perhaps
00:19:30taking this relationship from a
00:19:34unilateral or bilateral format to a trilater. one because
00:19:38there is lot of talk ahead the upcoming apex
00:19:41summit in China in November about a possible
00:19:45meeting between uh President Trump president she and President
00:19:48Putin um do you think it's likely? well
00:19:52I would roll out the possibility because after all President
00:19:56Trump has expressed the wish to attend the
00:19:59meeting and as far as the host the meeting China's
00:20:03concerned Beijing of course would prefer uh Trump
00:20:07attended. and of course um president Putin um which is
00:20:11very good friend with President C, so if the three leaders
00:20:14are there, why not organize a
00:20:17trilateral, at least dialogue, even though
00:20:21it's unlikely change the fundamental and structural
00:20:25differences, so I think that this is possible, but whether that
00:20:29happens still remains to be seen, again there could be
00:20:32informal meetings and even if there is a formal meeting, I don't think it's
00:20:36unlighted with. change the dynamics, for example, the war on Ukraine is
00:20:40still going on, and the United States approach
00:20:43to the war um and is not always
00:20:47at all force with Russias and and national
00:20:50security and then the Europeans of course are putting spinners in the
00:20:54works and the Europeans are al also some them are still
00:20:58maintaining very close relationship with the United
00:21:02States to contain Russia over
00:21:06Ukraine so I think that there are still fundamental differences but as far as the
00:21:10trilateral meeting idea is no bad idea so
00:21:13that the two three dealers together at least talk things um um
00:21:17not talk things over but at least establish. a deeper understanding of
00:21:21each each other's position, for a long time the Americans had
00:21:25habit of treating such high-level visits, not as a meeting
00:21:29of equals or diplomatic necessity, but as reward
00:21:32for good behavior. now that clearly is not going
00:21:36to work for either president Putin or president chi, but I wonder
00:21:40if the tables by now have turned a little bit
00:21:44that, President Trump may seek such an occasion
00:21:48more than the the the other two. presidents not because of any
00:21:51concrete deals, but just for the
00:21:53sake of grandstanding and personal gratification
00:21:57being pictured you together with other
00:22:01presidents or leaders of great powers, wouldn't
00:22:05that tantalize President Trump's
00:22:08ego? well of course President Trump is a great master
00:22:12theatrics, um, he can turn um the
00:22:15perception as according to the China saying, deer into a
00:22:19horse. you thinks is a horse, it would become a horse instead of
00:22:23deer, and so I think that his master of
00:22:26narrative, but on the other hand, I think that if
00:22:30he wants things badly, he could really bend backwards as
00:22:34exemplified by his um fawing reception
00:22:38of president sea, you ruling out the red carpet and meeting
00:22:41presidency and and his first lady a tamet has never
00:22:45been seen before, so I think that again is a theatre, I
00:22:49think the... both um all the leaders and see through that um,
00:22:53but it doesn't stop presidency continue to play the
00:22:57game is very very good at. well uh, good rapport among
00:23:01leaders is definitely a very valuable asset in
00:23:04geopolitics, the Putin sheer relationship is a good example of that,
00:23:08but what do you think it means in case of Donald Trump, and isn't there
00:23:12a risk that President Trump, if that meeting indeed comes to
00:23:16pass, may feel a little bit left out given the,
00:23:20Putin Shinge that exists already, because President She
00:23:24and President Putin do understand each other much a much deeper level
00:23:27and then President Trump relates to either
00:23:31one them. I think that the Beijing is much
00:23:35better master the kind of international
00:23:39and geopolitical dynamics even the
00:23:42perceptions in such important meetings, witness president
00:23:46Trump's last visit to the bricks summit, you can. see on the
00:23:50theater, obviously India was trying to cosey up to
00:23:53president Putin um and leaving the
00:23:57China's leader in the cold sometimes with and
00:24:01also presidency afterwards make hasty
00:24:05exit from the the bricks
00:24:08meeting, but I think that as far as the Beijing is
00:24:12the host obviously he want to be to be seen to be
00:24:15respectful to both leaders to as United States.
00:24:20and and after all Putin is a long-term allied and
00:24:24very good friends and so I think that this is
00:24:28um um presidency is trying to cheat both leaders with great
00:24:31respect and on even kill now if that meeting
00:24:35uh indeed materialize one the issues that seems to be offering
00:24:39itself up for discussion would be the resumption the talks
00:24:42on some sort of trilateral nuclear arms
00:24:46control treaty and CNN reported the... other day that
00:24:50China and the United States have already discussed reciprocal
00:24:54nuclear sites visits, do you think that
00:24:58uh,
00:24:59you know, deal has any potential, given that
00:25:03China's nuclear arsenals at this point of time are substantially
00:25:07smaller than those the United States and Russia, and clearly
00:25:10China wouldn't want to be uh reduced at
00:25:14that level, it would want to feel on on equal
00:25:18kill with other players. Well, I don't think the Beijing necessarily
00:25:22wants a complete parity, because after all the modern nuclear
00:25:26weapons are warheds and much more powerful that those drop
00:25:29on Nagasaki and
00:25:32Hiroshima, multiple times more powerful, so you don't
00:25:36need hundred nuclear warheads um to destroy
00:25:39nation, and now you look at the stock pile, um, Russia
00:25:43is the largest, world's largest stop pile over 3ous,
00:25:47maybe 3,300, the United States. is very closely behind over
00:25:51300 and china is not even reaching 100
00:25:54um even though China doesn't
00:25:56want parity obviously um you need
00:26:00a sufficient number to deploy. them in
00:26:03strategic assets and theaters, but on the other
00:26:07hand, it's not in China's interest to see
00:26:10nuclear proliferation as well as because then the more
00:26:14weapons um if there is an arms race,
00:26:18especially with what's happening around the world over
00:26:21Ukraine and and on over Iran,
00:26:25countries are beginning to feel, especially the middle power
00:26:29countries, they feel they're
00:26:31so not vulnerable to... american military dominance and the only defense
00:26:35is possession and nuclear powers, this could lead to priferation around the
00:26:39world. now what worries china? of course is the population in the Asian
00:26:42Pacific, particularly Japan and also
00:26:46other countries, and this will stabilize China's neighborhood,
00:26:49so China doesn't want proliberation, but nor does China
00:26:53want deliberate limitation of his nuclear
00:26:57arsenal. you said that China is not striving towards
00:27:01nuclear part. but at the same time it's been investing lot
00:27:04of resources into various nuclear facilities and
00:27:08it has enormous uh technological and economic
00:27:12provest, something that perhaps neither Russia nor the United
00:27:15States can uh afford at the moment, and therefore there's been a
00:27:19lot of articles about how the Americans are
00:27:22concerned about uh China secretly expanding
00:27:25its nuclear weapons infrastructure. I guess my last question to you
00:27:29is whether you think that perhaps China does doesn't mind the
00:27:33Americans being concerned uh about that issue
00:27:37and using it as a sort of psychological deterrent so that the
00:27:41Americans know that while China is not like it's
00:27:45part of China's doctrine not to attack first not to use nuclear strike
00:27:49first but that the Americans know that it has something
00:27:53to respond with. I think no country wants to
00:27:56reveal is
00:27:57core military
00:28:01hardware software. completely uh to his
00:28:04arch um enemies or potential rivals
00:28:07and no doubt that technology is
00:28:11advancing a nuclear warhead front for example is i
00:28:14mentioned before the warhead drop in hirushiman arakasaki
00:28:18is now only as very very small fraction the power that can
00:28:22be unleashed with modern warheads so i think that there was
00:28:26continuing research not only in china but in other countries
00:28:30now where the china remains ahead and so... technologies
00:28:34um that cannot be root out, but I don't think China is ready
00:28:38to reveal everything, nor the United States, North Russia, but I
00:28:42think the danger is on the one hand there is
00:28:45keen competition on AI, drone warfare
00:28:49and all that, because the technology is changing and then
00:28:53that the world becomes much more um
00:28:56disruptive, on the other hand um and each
00:29:00country will stay ahead with the... as I said
00:29:03commanding heights in
00:29:05in in all all fields where been AI or nuclear weapons
00:29:09or space technology um and even
00:29:12in how uh trade is going to be conducted so
00:29:16I think that we are seeing a world which is totally up
00:29:19ended um and we are we are in for major
00:29:23change a number of key fields across the group okay
00:29:27well Mr. Long this is all we have time for uh for now thank you
00:29:30very much for your insights. Thank you very much
00:29:34indeed and thank you for watching, see you next week
00:29:38on world's
00:29:38apart.
00:30:02Hello! And welcome to Crosstal Bullhorns. Here we discuss some
00:30:06realness.
00:30:28Hey everybody, welcome back to Moscow. Welcome back to the Moscow Mules. I'm Shaw.
00:30:32"he's still uggy, hiding away somewhere, trying to pretend that he's actually doing some
00:30:36work, never done a day's work in his life, but hey, look, someone's got to carry the
00:30:40can, and it's usually me. now, this week, lots going on around the
00:30:44world, but it's still one place that is particularly
00:30:47burning, yeah, and that's good old france, god damn
00:30:51it, evolution, yes, the the beautiful
00:30:55heartland of you know, european dignity, uh,
00:30:58justice, liberty,