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00:00:39We are CNN, the world leader in
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00:01:52so optimistic that this will
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00:02:10this is not as immediate
00:02:12Hello, how are you? I'm Andrés Oppenheimer. What impact will the
00:02:16presidential elections in Brazil have on Latin America? What could
00:02:19change if the largest country in the region takes a drastic
00:02:22turn to the right? The victory of the right-wing candidate
00:02:26Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round on October 4 surprised
00:02:30many because almost all the polls favored
00:02:33the current left-wing president, Luis Inácio
00:02:36Lula da Silva. Now the two will face each other in a second
00:02:40round on October 25, and Bolsonaro
00:02:43can win. He has in his favor the propaganda
00:02:46boost that winning the first round gives him,
00:02:50and he also has in his favor the fact that
00:02:53of the world and conception of several of the candidates who were eliminated in the first
00:02:55round were from the center-right or right, and their
00:02:59followers
00:03:01government, it's not that it's not the could vote for Bolsonaro now in the second round. Flavio Bolsonaro, of
00:03:05course, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to
00:03:0927 years in prison and is under house arrest for having
00:03:13instigated a coup after losing the 2022 elections,
00:03:16something he denies. So, returning to the current candidate, if
00:03:20Flavio Bolsonaro wins in the second round, the rightward
00:03:23turn in Latin America would extend. Right-wing
00:03:26and center-right candidates won the last seven
00:03:30presidential elections in the region, all
00:03:34seven, and now there are right-wing governments in Argentina,
00:03:37Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Honduras, and several other
00:03:41countries. If Bolsonaro wins in Brazil, the largest
00:03:44country in the region would join him. The political map of democracies in
00:03:48Latin America, of course, with very few exceptions, such as Mexico,
00:03:52Uruguay, would be almost entirely covered by right-wing
00:03:55or center-right governments. But what impact
00:03:59would all that have? It would have
00:04:02been removed a combined impact, a formidable political bloc would form,
00:04:04allied with the United States, capable of advancing economic integration
00:04:08and the fight against drug cartels, or
00:04:11would the personal egos of presidents
00:04:15and nationalist rivalries
00:04:17win? Today we will analyze all
00:04:21this with several renowned
00:04:24Trump's strategy in political analysts from Washington and Sao Paulo. We will start with the Brazilian political scientist
00:04:28Sergio Fausto, director of the Fernando
00:04:31Enrique Cardozo Foundation in São
00:04:34him. Sergio, thank you for being with us. Well, first
00:04:37of all, do you agree with the analysts who
00:04:41say that Bolsonaro is very likely to win in the second round? That is,
00:04:45what are the chances that Lula will turn things
00:04:48around and end up winning in the second round?
00:04:51Well, it's not impossible, but it's very
00:04:54difficult. There has never been a
00:04:57change from the first to the second round since we
00:05:00returned to democracy, since a system with two
00:05:04rounds was implemented. So, it would be completely
00:05:07unprecedented. It should be noted that it is
00:05:10the tightest margin ever
00:05:14in Brazil, but having said
00:05:17that, when
00:05:21the elections to Congress, to the
00:05:24state governments, we say here, of the
00:05:27provinces, it is a wave
00:05:30to the right, no, it is a clear
00:05:33sign of a favorable atmosphere
00:05:36for Flavio, that is, it is very likely that the future president
00:05:40of Brazil will be Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of the
00:05:44former president Bolsonaro, who is under house
00:05:47arrest. Here in Brazil there are many parties, that is,
00:05:51Bolsonaro's party obtained about
00:05:5535% of the Senate and
00:05:5824% of the seats in the Lower
00:06:02House, which is a record in the last 40
00:06:05years for a single party to have obtained so many
00:06:09seats. But when one takes, uh,
00:06:12the set of parties that are in the
00:06:16right-wing camp, so to speak,
00:06:19what one sees is a clear majority
00:06:22of the right in both the
00:06:25Senate and the Lower House. What would have to happen for
00:06:28Lula to reverse the situation and win?
00:06:32Well, he would have to
00:06:35win, well, the difference is very narrow, it's
00:06:382,300
00:06:41votes, which means in percentage terms, two
00:06:44percentage points, it's little, it seems little,
00:06:48no, but what was left of
00:06:51votes on the table, so to speak,
00:06:55were votes given to candidates who are in the
00:06:58right-wing camp, so it is to be expected
00:07:02that most of these votes will migrate towards Flavio and
00:07:05not towards Lula, a little towards Lula,
00:07:09but the largest part towards Flavio.
00:07:12two candidates have already declared that they will officially support
00:07:16Flag. Lula could seek, uh,
00:07:20votes from people who abstained, 20 and
00:07:23something percent of the electoral roll did not
00:07:26go to the polls,
00:07:30uh,
00:07:32but it is not likely that this will happen because it is
00:07:36more or less a very crystallized number, 20%
00:07:40abstention.
00:07:42to show himself as a more moderate candidate than his
00:07:45father, is that true? Is he more moderate or is
00:07:49it a campaign image
00:07:51invented by his electoral strategists? Let's
00:07:54see, in terms of his manners, he's a
00:07:58more moderate guy, no.
00:08:02In terms of his conception
00:08:05politics, I don't think he's more moderate. This
00:08:09doesn't mean that he will
00:08:13have a government like his father's. I have to be
00:08:16a little cautious about making
00:08:20categorical predictions
00:08:23saying a far right government
00:08:27is coming. I would be a little
00:08:29more, as I said, wait a little
00:08:33to see how the process unfolds, no,
00:08:36because there was a turn to the right, even more to the
00:08:40right, because the turn to the right in the country began
00:08:44in 2018, no, now even more,
00:08:47but it is a right that has nuances, no, even within
00:08:51Bolsonaro's party. Sergio, if Flavio
00:08:54Bolsonaro wins, what would change in Brazil's foreign policy? Would it be an
00:08:58unconditional ally of Trump or
00:09:01not so much?
00:09:03I don't see it that way. It would be an ally of Trump, for sure, no,
00:09:07but Brazil, uh,
00:09:10cannot,
00:09:14yes, it needs China's support, because
00:09:17it needs to have good relations with China, because the largest
00:09:21part of Brazil's exports are to China,
00:09:24uh, 30-something
00:09:27percent, no, the bulk of exports from the
00:09:30agricultural sector and cattle ranching
00:09:34from Brazil to China. The United
00:09:37States is completely the opposite, more manufactured
00:09:41goods in a much smaller proportion, one-third of
00:09:44exports to China, so they
00:09:48cannot afford to
00:09:51lose good relations with China, no. Now,
00:09:54on issues like critical minerals, for example, I think that
00:09:57there would be a clear tendency
00:10:00to use this leverage
00:10:03to establish more
00:10:06bilateral relations,
00:10:09closer with the United
00:10:11States, also in terms
00:10:15of combating organized crime
00:10:17with all the aspects involved.
00:10:21Bolsonaro would enter the Shield of the
00:10:24Americas, the alliance promoted by Trump, among other things, to
00:10:27combat drug trafficking? I think
00:10:31it's very probable, I think it's very probable,
00:10:34although the Brazilian military
00:10:38would, I think, be a little
00:10:41reluctant, because they are quite
00:10:43nationalist, but I think that, uh,
00:10:47Flavio is going down this path. On the issue of
00:10:50Venezuela, if Flavio Bolsonaro wins, would he be as critical
00:10:53of the Venezuelan regime as his father was, or
00:10:57now that Trump met with David Rodríguez and publicly
00:11:01praised him, would he approach her? In
00:11:04relation to Venezuela, I'm
00:11:07whatever Trump
00:11:10tells him to do, no, it's that
00:11:14simple, no, I don't think Brazil will seek
00:11:17a different relationship with Venezuela,
00:11:21no, despite the tradition of a bilateral relationship
00:11:25between the two countries, which was a relationship that
00:11:28had quite a lot of autonomy in relation to
00:11:32Washington throughout history, no. But now I think
00:11:36it will be different. On the issue of Cuba and Nicaragua, it would be the
00:11:39same, it would be the same, I think there would be
00:11:42automatic alignment and with much conviction. We have to take a
00:11:46break. When we return, we will continue analyzing what concrete impact in Latin America
00:11:50the elections on October 25 in
00:11:53Brazil could have if Bolsonaro wins. Don't go away, we'll be
00:12:12back. Yes, yes, it's clear,
00:12:14and it's
00:12:18beginning of the program, saying, "Well, assuming that
00:12:22uh, this transition occurs," because
00:12:25there are a series of questions that you explained very
00:12:29well, that is, that from the
00:12:31start, saying, "Well, maybe
00:12:35as we think." Second, the point of
00:12:39transparency, of maintaining transparency, which,
00:12:43well, Bernanke put us in the dance,
00:12:46who has been tremendously a positive asset and
00:12:49a great asset of the institution. And then,
00:14:13the need to migrate knows no age. Many
00:14:17say they want to reach Mexico City, but others seek
00:14:20to go further north.
00:14:25The Mexican Army's anti-drone battalion consists of
00:14:29these types of jamming devices to bring down drones
00:14:32that have become a threat. The
00:14:35Chiapas authorities have detected a cattle smuggling
00:14:39point. This is one of the illegal crossing
00:14:42points for cattle going from Central America to
00:14:46Mexico. Thousands of demonstrators, workers from this
00:14:49country, left at 9:30 in the morning from
00:14:52the Angel of Independence. I am in the municipality of
00:14:55Teuchitlán in the Mexican state of Jalisco. Here
00:14:59the discovery was macabre by groups of people
00:15:02searching for missing persons. What
00:15:05made you come here with the suspicion that your son might be on this ranch?
00:15:22Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing the possible impact
00:15:26in Latin America of the presidential elections in
00:15:29Brazil. The right-wing candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, surprised everyone
00:15:33by winning the first round on October 4, because, well, the polls
00:15:37favored the current president, the left-wing president
00:15:40Luis Inácio Lula da Silva.
00:15:43Bolsonaro, Flavio Bolsonaro, is the son of former President Jair
00:15:46Bolsonaro, he was sentenced to
00:15:4927 years in prison and is under house arrest for instigating
00:15:52a supposed coup, something that
00:15:55Bolsonaro, father and son, deny. And
00:15:58now, although there may be surprises, Flavio
00:16:01Bolsonaro, the son, the candidate, is the favorite to
00:16:05win the second round, because he has in his favor, among other things, that several
00:16:08candidates who were left behind, who were
00:16:11eliminated in the first round, were from the right or center-right,
00:16:14so their followers, many
00:16:17of them, will probably support Flavio
00:16:20Bolsonaro. We continue from Sao Paulo with political scientist Sergio
00:16:23Fausto, director of the Fernando Enrique Cardozo
00:16:26Foundation. Let's continue with the interview. Sergio, if
00:16:29Bolsonaro wins in the second round, almost all Latin
00:16:33American countries, except Mexico, or the large ones, at
00:16:37least, except Mexico, will have right-wing or
00:16:40center-right governments. Would we see the formation of a
00:16:44right-wing bloc to
00:16:48the region or not?
00:16:51Well, yes, a bloc with many political
00:16:55affinities, but with its national peculiarities.
00:16:58I would emphasize the fact that integration
00:17:02in the strongest sense, production chains
00:17:06and even in terms of
00:17:10trade, has always been a very difficult
00:17:14challenge throughout history.
00:17:17I think the fact that there is this political
00:17:21synchronicity among the governments of the different
00:17:24countries helps, but I would not be
00:17:30result in an integration scheme
00:17:34like the one achieved in Europe, far from
00:17:38it, I think, because many of the current presidents are somewhat
00:17:41reluctant to multilateralism. Yes, yes,
00:17:44exactly, and they are,
00:17:48they emphasize their national
00:17:51powers, no, this is also a characteristic of this right,
00:17:55which is a right that has a lot
00:17:58of distrust in bilateral schemes, it has
00:18:01a lot of distrust in the renunciation
00:18:04of sovereignty, no, and I think this would be a brake on
00:18:08integration in the region. On November 3rd, there are
00:18:12midterm legislative and gubernatorial elections in the United
00:18:15States. If the Democrats, if the opposition
00:18:18wins, wins the House or the Senate or both
00:18:21chambers, what would change in the relationship with Brazil? If
00:18:25they win the Senate, I think it would be a signal
00:18:28and
00:18:31what would be the reading, I imagine, of the
00:18:34people of the probable future
00:18:39time to go for
00:18:41everything, because there could be change in the United States,
00:18:45it cannot be taken for granted that MAGA and Trump
00:18:49will be there all the time throughout the 4 years
00:18:52of Flavio's mandate, no. So I think there would be a
00:18:56certain attitude their backs,
00:19:00uh, but I'm trying to get inside
00:19:03their heads, no. Uh,
00:19:07I'm sure that Trump
00:19:10will try to double down, no. I don't think Trump
00:19:13will moderate, on the contrary, he will have incentives to double
00:19:17down on foreign policy and in relation to Latin
00:19:21America.
00:19:23The rational thing in my opinion would be for Flavio Bolsonaro's
00:19:27government to react to this stimulus with
00:19:30moderation, imagining that this,
00:19:33well, a lame duck, a lame
00:19:36duck that may have
00:19:39from the White House in 2 years' time. Finally, if Bolsonaro
00:19:43wins, would it be the end of the São Paulo
00:19:46Forum? The São Paulo Forum never had the
00:19:50importance that was attributed
00:19:52to it by the Latin American right.
00:19:56It is a, and now even less,
00:19:59even less, no. Look, look, Chavismo is
00:20:02over, no. Chavismo's money is over.
00:20:06Cuba is looking.
00:20:09Nicaragua is a pure and
00:20:12simple dictatorship, no, that is,
00:20:16uh, I would say it's over by now,
00:20:19uh, Petros is no longer
00:20:22there. These
00:20:25things, you have to have a certain historical
00:20:29perspective. These things come and go, no. The
00:20:32left suffered, it probably won't be in the
00:20:35presidency of Brazil starting next year. But
00:20:38when you look at history, uh, this is also
00:20:42seen in Colombia, no, uh, De La
00:20:45Espriella won but won by a very narrow margin. The
00:20:48left is rooted there. I think
00:20:52the same will happen in Brazil, with an important
00:20:55difference, uh, it will
00:20:58be the end of the extraordinary cycle
00:21:01of Lula's political leadership, no. What will become of the
00:21:05left in general and of the Workers' Party without
00:21:08this leadership
00:21:11that was capable of uniting different
00:21:14factions of the party, no?
00:21:17It's a question, we don't have an answer.
00:21:20Sergio Fausto, thank you very much for your time. We have to take a break. When we return,
00:21:24we will continue analyzing what concrete impact in Latin America a victory
00:21:28by Flavio Bolsonaro in the elections of October 25 in
00:21:31Brazil could have. Don't go away, we'll be
00:21:47back. Yes, yes, it's clear,
00:21:50and it's very good that you said it at the beginning of the program, saying, "Well, assuming that
00:21:54uh, this transition occurs," because there are a series of
00:21:57questions that you explained very well. That is, that's
00:22:01the first thing, to say, "Well, maybe this is
00:22:04not as immediate as we think." Second, the point of
00:22:07transparency, of maintaining transparency, which,
00:22:10well, Bernanke put us in motion, who has been
00:22:13tremendously a positive asset and a great
00:22:17asset for the institution. And then, fundamentally, really the
00:22:21structure of a strong
00:22:24Fed. That complexity that it has right
00:22:28now, regional, is a strength, it's a strength.
00:26:03Life was born in the sea, the ocean is the sustenance of our
00:26:07life, really the oceans generate
00:26:11more oxygen many times than the forests themselves, the
00:26:14important thing here in the Amazon is the
00:26:16water,
00:26:20these trees are going to harvest water, generating
00:26:23new rivers, generating
00:26:26lakes, this responsibility to take care of this simple
00:26:29home is everyone's. We
00:26:34live on a beautiful planet, we have to
00:26:36keep it alive, from any angle of
00:26:40society, everyone has a voice to give and something to
00:26:43contribute, no, and all of us are capable of taking small
00:26:47actions, we can no longer keep talking, talking, talking, it's time
00:26:51to act, put on your superhero suit and start
00:26:54doing something
00:26:55today.
00:27:09The fight on this occasion consists of the administration
00:27:12wanting a sharp cut in interest rates to
00:27:16boost the economy, but the Fed, which has as one of
00:27:20its two mandates price stability, that is, protecting
00:27:26that if it does that, if it makes a sharp
00:27:30cut, it would trigger inflation
00:27:34and a scenario with problems of growth and at the same time
00:27:37inflation, that is, what is called
00:27:39stagflation. That is precisely what
00:27:43Powell's Fed wants to avoid,
00:27:46Jerome Powell.
00:28:05Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing the possible regional impact of the
00:28:09presidential elections of October 25 in Brazil. Right-wing
00:28:12candidates won the last seven presidential elections
00:28:16in Latin America, and now if the right-wing candidate in Brazil,
00:28:19Flavio Bolsonaro, wins in the second round, almost the entire
00:28:23region, with very few exceptions such as Mexico and
00:28:26Uruguay, would have right-wing governments. Would a
00:28:29formidable right-wing bloc form for economic
00:28:33integration of the region or would each go their own
00:28:37way? We have with us Benjamin Gedan, director of the
00:28:41Latin America program at the Wilson Center in Washington,
00:28:44former director for Latin America at the White House National
00:28:47Security Council, and previously an official at the
00:28:50State Department. Let's go with him. Benjamin Gedan, thank you for
00:28:54being with us. Benjamin, well, do you agree with the analysts
00:28:57who say that Bolsonaro is the favorite to win in Brazil? Yes, I think
00:29:01so. Flavio's campaign came out very
00:29:04strengthened from the first round. Almost always in
00:29:07Brazil, the candidate who wins the first
00:29:10round wins the elections. Lula
00:29:13is a rather weak candidate.
00:29:16It's a moment in Brazil, but in the entire region,
00:29:20eh, of anti-establishment forces,
00:29:24no, and Lula
00:29:26is like a symbol of establishment,
00:29:30no. He competed in his
00:29:33first presidential election in the
00:29:3680s, no, so,
00:29:39at a time when outsiders, opposition
00:29:43forces, new candidates
00:29:45have strong advantages,
00:29:49Lula, well, he will have a
00:29:53rather complicated campaign to be able to win,
00:29:57uh, we also have the figures from the
00:30:00legislative elections, another sample
00:30:04of the interest of Brazilian
00:30:07voters in having something different and
00:30:11conservative forces. What would change in relations between Brazil and
00:30:14Washington if Bolsonaro wins? Brazil would become
00:30:18an unconditional ally of the United States, not
00:30:22so much. It would be extremely important for
00:30:27Latin America, because in fact it really
00:30:30makes no sense to have a coalition of
00:30:34allies without the participation of the largest, most
00:30:37powerful country in the region. To date,
00:30:40Trump intended to have all the
00:30:43alliances he needed to promote his regional
00:30:47vision, but without Brazil and without Mexico,
00:30:51he really couldn't advance. Are you referring
00:30:54to the security sphere, to the Shield of the Americas, or
00:30:57beyond that? Well.