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00:00:02sign of the interest
00:00:05in Brazilian voters
00:00:08wanting something different and conservative
00:00:11forces. What would change in relations between Brazil and Washington
00:00:15if Bolsonaro wins? Brazil would become an
00:00:19unconditional ally of the United States,
00:00:22not so much. It would be
00:00:25extremely important for Trump's strategy in
00:00:28Latin America, because in fact. But
00:00:32it really doesn't make sense to have a
00:00:35coalition of allies without the participation of the largest, most
00:00:39powerful country in the region. To date,
00:00:42Trump intended to have all the
00:00:46alliances he needed to advance his
00:00:49regional vision, but without Brazil and without Mexico,
00:00:52he really couldn't advance. You're referring to
00:00:56the security sphere, the Shield of the Americas, or beyond that. Well,
00:01:00from my perspective, Trump has more or less three
00:01:03objectives in the region. Obviously,
00:01:06he wants to stop the flow of migrants, he wants to compete
00:01:10more against China, and he wants
00:01:13to fight criminal groups
00:01:16in the alliance called the Shield of the Americas.
00:01:20Benjamin, what would change in Brazil's
00:01:23foreign policy if Bolsonaro wins? That's an
00:01:28stop disbursements of important question, right? Because I think there's a not very
00:01:32practical expectation in the United States that implies
00:01:36that a victory of the conservative
00:01:39forces would imply a deep
00:01:43alliance and a turn in Brazil's
00:01:46foreign policy towards the West. I don't think
00:01:50that will happen. What we saw with the experience of his
00:01:55first round almost always wins the own father, the famous Trump of the Tropics, is that
00:01:58the ties between Brazil and China are
00:02:01so deep in geostrategic economic
00:02:05terms that it's very difficult
00:02:08to change, very difficult to risk
00:02:12the economic relationship with China with a dramatic turn
00:02:16towards Washington. Do you think that if Bolsonaro wins, a bloc of right-wing countries would form, as the
00:02:19left-wing governments tried at one point, or
00:02:23are these presidents so reluctant to multilateral organizations
00:02:26that they wouldn't do that? I think
00:02:30that both in the relationship with Trump and in the relationship
00:02:33with Miley, with Santiago Peña in
00:02:37Paraguay, what we could
00:02:39see would be symbolic acts of
00:02:43collaboration, an effort to seek
00:02:46synergies in foreign policy,
00:02:50but very difficult to actually,
00:02:54very difficult to generate deep collaboration
00:02:58an experience in itself, the cradle of spaces, right? For example. In the case
00:03:01of Chile and Argentina, we have two leaders
00:03:04with very similar
00:03:07ideological visions, but
00:03:09second round that will be nevertheless, there are disputes that have to do with territorial
00:03:12conflicts, both in the Malvinas Islands and in the south of
00:03:16both countries. This is an example among
00:03:19many of the difficulty of
00:03:23organizing strategic alliances
00:03:27in South America. What impact would a Bolsonaro victory
00:03:31have in Mexico? I mean, if the political map of the region is covered by right-wing
00:03:34governments, including Brazil, where would that leave
00:03:38Mexico? Well, a
00:03:41victory for Flavio
00:03:44would leave Claudia
00:03:47alone in the region, speaking of the
00:03:50largest, most influential countries. Having said
00:03:54this, Mexico always looks north, not
00:03:57south. It has no
00:04:00close ties with neighboring countries in Central
00:04:04America or with countries
00:04:07in South America. That's why I don't think it would be a
00:04:11very influential factor in Mexico's foreign policy. It has a
00:04:14total dependence on the United States. The
00:04:17destination of more than 80% of its
00:04:21exports and the relationship in terms of migration
00:04:24and security is a relationship with the United
00:04:27States. That's why it wouldn't be very comfortable for
00:04:30Claudia, but I don't think it would have very dramatic
00:04:34effects. What will happen with all these right-wing and center-right
00:04:37governments in Latin America if the Democrats in the United States
00:04:41regain Congress in the November 3rd elections? What could the
00:04:45Democrats do on the issues that matter in
00:04:48Latin America? That's a very important issue, right?
00:04:52Because what we have today that we haven't had for a long
00:04:55time is a hyperpolarized
00:04:58environment. Not hyper-
00:05:01ideologized. What this implies is that the relationship, for
00:05:04example, between Argentina and the United States is not a state-to-state
00:05:08relationship, it's a partisan relationship. It's
00:05:12a relationship between Miley and Trump, between the
00:05:16MAGA world in both places. That's
00:05:19why I think there is an important
00:05:23possibility that the opposition in the United
00:05:26States could take advantage of
00:05:29their new power in the House or in the Senate or in both
00:05:33chambers to punish, to investigate,
00:05:36to make an effort to change the
00:05:40intense policy of...
00:05:50Argentina, investigating the bombing
00:05:53of the boats in the
00:05:56Pacific, in the Caribbean, right? Reorganizing,
00:05:59taking resources from military
00:06:02assistance to Ecuador, for example, to
00:06:06Colombia, trying to
00:06:09analyze the policy towards Venezuela, the agreement.
00:06:12The mega agreement
00:06:15in the energy sector, right? But to
00:06:19understand better, please explain in more detail what will
00:06:23change if the Democrats win the House in the November
00:06:26elections. The House has the appropriations
00:06:30committee for government funds, meaning it has the
00:06:33checkbook to authorize disbursements of funds.
00:06:37For example, could the House
00:06:41Trump's laws to fund
00:06:44ICE, the migration service, the border
00:06:48patrol? Could they cut those funds? No, I
00:06:51don't think so, not easily, no. What
00:06:55Congress has already approved is already
00:06:57available to the executive branch. But
00:07:01yes, it could stop any legislative
00:07:05project with a view to the future, that is,
00:07:09they already have enormous
00:07:12resources, all security agencies or all
00:07:16anti-immigrant efforts. But
00:07:19Congress could indeed investigate,
00:07:23deny new investments in those
00:07:26institutions, and create
00:07:29problems, identifying actions by
00:07:33Trump that perhaps did not comply with
00:07:37local law, international law, agreements,
00:07:40treaties with other countries.
00:07:43And obviously generating
00:07:46greater political costs for
00:07:49Trump. We already have a profound change in
00:07:53domestic policy regarding the relationship between
00:07:57Hispanics and the administration as a
00:08:00result, more than anything, of the
00:08:02harsh migratory policy. What we
00:08:06will see is an even stronger
00:08:09debate and a conversation.
00:10:49Live from Mexico
00:10:51City, a story
00:10:55that changed everything. A look at the reconstruction efforts of a
00:10:59city and the hope of a people determined to rise up. It evolved
00:11:02very quickly, and we never thought it would become a category
00:11:06five. And to understand what is happening, let's go
00:11:09with my colleague Ione Molinares to Washington.
00:11:13The explosion, we can see the dimension it had to take out the entire
00:11:17facade. We hear the protagonists, they
00:11:21mocked us as mothers and fathers of the 43.
00:11:25Where she lived, a bomb fell. We are about to board this
00:11:28Mexican Air Force plane heading to Romania
00:11:32to have a complete vision. We are here as
00:11:35migrants to progress, to make this country grow. There are great
00:11:38stories to know and many perspectives to analyze.
00:11:42Perspectives with Mario González, Monday to Friday
00:11:45on CNN.
00:11:49I'm Rafael Romo in Atlanta. We are
00:11:51CNN.
00:11:58Thank you for staying with us. We are analyzing the possible regional
00:12:01impact in Latin America of the presidential elections on
00:12:04October 25th in Brazil. The right-wing candidate
00:12:08Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4th and now
00:12:11has good chances of winning the second round on
00:12:14October 25th, among other things because in Brazil, the winner of the
00:12:20second round. We have with us Anthony Pereira, professor of
00:12:23Latin American studies at Tuden University. Let's go
00:12:27with him. Professor Pereira, thank you for being with us.
00:12:31Well, first of all, do you agree with many forecasts
00:12:34that Flavio Bolsonaro has the
00:12:38best chances of winning the second round? Yes, I
00:12:41would say that Flavio's victory
00:12:44is probable,
00:12:48but a Lula victory is not
00:12:50impossible,
00:12:52because the expectation before...
00:13:04and the surprise was that it
00:13:07was slightly lower. If
00:13:10Flavio Bolsonaro wins, what differences would there be between him
00:13:14and his father, because he is selling himself in this
00:13:17campaign as a more moderate candidate than his
00:13:20father, but is that so or is it a campaign
00:13:22strategy? I am a bit suspicious of that narrative that Flavio
00:13:26is more moderate. Flavio
00:13:29once said, "I am the
00:13:33vaccinated Bolsonaro,"
00:13:35vaccinated.
00:13:39But it is very probable
00:13:42that sooner or
00:13:45later Jair would be
00:13:48free. Jair would be released from the
00:13:52detention he was suffering now.
00:14:14He would have a lot of influence and perhaps also a formal role in the government.
00:14:17So the coalition is very
00:14:21similar to the government that
00:14:25Jair presided over between 2019 and
00:14:282022.
00:14:32Perhaps in some areas, for example, the influence of the
00:14:36military, the armed forces
00:14:39would be different, because Flavio did not
00:14:42serve in the army like his
00:14:45father. That could be a difference,
00:14:49a difference. Also, Flavio has slightly different
00:14:52relationships with the other members of Congress.
00:14:55But I don't, I don't, so far, and I may be
00:14:59wrong, I don't perceive
00:15:03a very big difference between the
00:15:06possible governments. How do you imagine Brazil's
00:15:10relationship with Washington if Bolsonaro wins? Would it be an unconditional
00:15:14alliance with the Trump government or not so much?
00:15:18I think not so much, for example, in
00:15:21one fundamental thing, economic relations.
00:15:37fundamentally shape that relationship. One
00:15:41third of exports go to China,
00:15:44and China is an important
00:15:47source of investment in infrastructure, especially energy
00:15:51infrastructure. What would happen with Latin American policy if
00:15:55Bolsonaro wins? Would a right-wing
00:15:57bloc form to increase
00:16:01regional economic integration or not necessarily? I think
00:16:04not necessarily. The relations with
00:16:08Argentina, I believe that Brazil would be
00:16:12closer to Argentina and Miley,
00:16:16and perhaps that could soften relations within
00:16:19Mercosur. But
00:16:23I have no doubt
00:16:25that the current right-wing
00:16:29presidents, Keiko Fujimori,
00:16:32Esperia in Colombia, Na
00:16:35Boa, Ecuador, but... Cast in
00:16:38Chile, I don't know if they have so many convergences
00:16:42and capabilities to
00:16:46act together. So for me
00:16:49it would be more or less some
00:16:53joint initiatives,
00:16:56but very far from a complete
00:17:00and formal integration.
00:17:04Professor Pereira, thank you very much for your time. We have to go to a break. We'll talk about
00:17:08my reflection on what could change for Latin America
00:17:11if Bolsonaro wins the presidential elections in Brazil. Don't
00:17:15go, we'll talk.
00:17:30But regardless of that, the truth is that everything that happens in the world is
00:17:34stirring things up in some way and that Latin America. With all
00:17:38the aspects that are there, as you said,
00:17:41elections, treaties of
00:17:44Mexico with Canada, with the United States
00:17:48will be in focus and it comes at a time when the markets, to
00:17:52continue a bit in our focus today on markets,
00:17:56when the markets have also been quite good and
00:17:59that there are expectations that, although difficult to
00:18:03anticipate, certainly, they are moving
00:18:07in a way that they haven't in many years.
00:18:27I'm Meli Croveto, a travel blogger with a great passion for traveling.
00:18:31Reaching Machu Picchu is already
00:18:35the Inca civilization and one of the wonders of the
00:18:38world. Machu Picchu has a very
00:18:41special energy that makes you feel very, very small before
00:18:44the immensity and the imposingness of the
00:18:47citadel.
00:18:49When you're walking through Machu Picchu, you'll be able to find llamas, which are a
00:18:53symbol of the Andes here in Peru. They were the
00:18:57first domestic animals that the Incas had and they mean a lot to
00:19:01the Andean people because they also provide them with wool and
00:19:04food. Walking through the same places
00:19:08that the Incas walked thousands of years ago makes me very emotional because it
00:19:12makes me feel very proud to be Peruvian.
00:20:52Forum with Senate candidate James Talarico, a face-to-face meeting with
00:20:56voters, unfiltered, unedited. Can the Democratic
00:20:59aspirant win in a Republican state? CNN Forum and
00:21:02Jubile with James Talarico on Wednesday on
00:21:05CNN. Would you like to have a healthier life?
00:21:09Join me to discover new tips, scientific
00:21:12advances, and current methods that can help us improve our
00:21:16mind and body in a consultation with Dr. Huerda. A
00:21:20CNN podcast. Hello, I'm Andres Openheimer. If you like
00:21:24our programs, you can always watch them on the Openheimer YouTube
00:21:27channel, presents, after it airs on CNN. And if you subscribe to my
00:21:31YouTube channel,
00:21:34we will send you all my programs and columns
00:21:37for free every week. Register, I'll
00:21:39wait for you.
00:21:50And it's good that you mentioned it again, as you said at the beginning of the program, that
00:21:53assuming this transition occurs,
00:21:57because there are a series of questions that you have explained very well, that is,
00:22:01that's the starting point, to say, well, maybe this
00:22:05is not as immediate as we think. Second, the point of
00:22:08transparency, of maintaining transparency, which
00:22:12Bernad gave us, has been
00:22:15tremendously a positive asset and a great
00:22:18asset of the institution. And then, fundamentally,
00:22:21the structure of a
00:22:24strong Fed with
00:22:28that complexity it has right now of regional
00:22:31is a strength.
00:23:47Thank you for staying with us. What would change for me? Latin America if the
00:23:51presidential right-wing candidate of Brazil Flavio Bolsonaro, who won the
00:23:54first round in the October 4th elections, wins the
00:23:59held on October 25th. Bolsonaro is the
00:24:03son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was
00:24:05sentenced to 27 years in prison, is under house arrest
00:24:09for instigating a coup that he denies. But well, let's go back to
00:24:13Flavio Bolsonaro. We said in previous segments that
00:24:16he has good chances of winning because he has
00:24:20in his favor, among other things, the propagandistic boost he
00:24:24gets from having unexpectedly won the first
00:24:27round. And he also has in his favor the fact that several of the
00:24:31other candidates, those who were eliminated in the first
00:24:34round, were right-wing or center-right,
00:24:37and their supporters could then vote for
00:24:41Bolsonaro in the second round. And if that
00:24:44happens, if Bolsonaro wins, the political map of Latin America will be
00:24:48covered by governments, those who are on the right of the political
00:24:51center. But what regional impact could
00:24:55that have? A Bolsonaro victory, would it form, for example, a
00:24:58formidable bloc of countries allied with the United States
00:25:02and favorable to free markets, perhaps even a regional
00:25:05integration bloc? Would the
00:25:09egos of the presidents and the
00:25:12nationalist tendencies in several countries prevail? The
00:25:15concrete fact is that we could see greater cooperation on
00:25:19security issues, security and the fight against cartels and drug trafficking,
00:25:22because many of these current presidents and Bolsonaro
00:25:26himself have made the fight against crime and a hard
00:25:29hand against criminals one of the main priorities of their
00:25:33political platforms, and several countries have already
00:25:36joined the Shield of the Americas, the alliance
00:25:39promoted by President Donald
00:25:41Trump. In the economic sphere, it would be
00:25:45good if the right-wing and center-right presidents took advantage of this
00:25:48ideological affinity they have to turn Latin America into an
00:25:52magnet for foreign investment, as Asia
00:25:55has been in recent decades. But
00:25:59there are several reasons to doubt that we will see
00:26:03the formation of a solid and lasting right-wing bloc in the
00:26:07region. First, the unifying
00:26:11factor of many of these governments is President
00:26:14Donald Trump, and Trump
00:26:18could be very weakened if the opposition wins the November
00:26:213rd midterm elections in the United States. And anyway, Trump will be
00:26:25on his way out because the Constitution does not allow him to be
00:26:28re-elected, as Diego Oguelar, a former ambassador of Argentina to
00:26:32China, the United States, and Brazil, told me, this
00:26:35right-wing bloc in Latin America will very soon be left without
00:26:44leaders in the region, like Argentina's President Javier Miley, have
00:26:47been critical of economic integration groups like
00:26:50Mercosur, for example, they object to a Mercosur
00:26:53clause that does not allow them to make free trade agreements on their own with
00:26:57third countries, with countries outside the bloc. And Bolsonaro in
00:27:01Brazil has also said
00:27:03that he wants to free Brazil
00:27:05from what he called
00:27:08the shackles of Mercosur.
00:27:12Mercosur,
00:27:14So it's hard to think that the new generation of right-wing
00:27:18or center-right presidents will try to promote
00:27:21blocs or a regional economic
00:27:24integration bloc. Third, many of the right-wing
00:27:27presidents, like Trump, are critical of multilateral
00:27:30organizations and what they call globalism. They are
00:27:34characterized by their nationalism, just
00:27:37as Trump championed America first.
00:27:40We could see a Brazil
00:27:44first, which is not conducive to the formation
00:27:47of a regional economic bloc. The
00:27:50nationalism of the new right-wing governments can be stronger than the
00:27:54ideological coincidences with their neighbors.
00:27:58If Bolsonaro wins, almost all of Latin
00:28:02America will have ideologically
00:28:04aligned governments, and that would be good if they could
00:28:08agree to do some things together, some elementary things, for
00:28:12example, it is ridiculous that Latin America does not have a common
00:28:16visa for the entire region, that a Japanese or Chinese or
00:28:19Australian tourist who wants to travel to Latin America has to get a visa for each
00:28:23country, that discourages tourism, and it is ridiculous that several
00:28:27Latin American countries that still do not have joint export promotion
00:28:30offices in Europe or Asia
00:28:34do not open shared offices to save costs.
00:28:38As I just said, it would be great if these countries
00:28:42took advantage of the political affinity they have to
00:28:45promote common initiatives, but for now,
00:28:48even if Bolsonaro wins, I don't see many people
00:28:52talking about increasing regional economic integration or
00:28:56supporting joint initiatives like
00:28:58these. That's not being discussed.
00:29:02Well, I'll leave you with that reflection for today. I invite you as always to
00:29:06visit me on my YouTube channel, on my
00:29:09Instagram, Facebook, X account, what used to be called Twitter, and
00:29:13several others. Thank you for joining us. See you next
00:29:16week.
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00:30:36We are CNN, the world leader in news.
00:30:53Hello, welcome to Mirador Mundial, the weekend news program of CNN
00:30:57en Español. I'm Rey Rodríguez, and as always, I invite you to join me for the
00:31:00next half hour with the main news that marked the
00:31:04day's agenda.
00:31:05Let's begin.