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00:03:08Let's go,
00:05:10Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to Impact Plus,
00:05:13where we discuss the great democracies of
00:05:16the world, as well as countries that are in the process of
00:05:20democratization, about the dangers that threaten the
00:05:24fight for democracy and for freedom. Today we go
00:05:27to the United States, which is also considered the most
00:05:30important democratic country in the world, the oldest, one of the oldest
00:05:34democracies in the world, which is now entering the electoral
00:05:38fever, and what challenges these elections face. Will
00:05:42the Trump administration manage to maintain political control
00:05:45over the country, and how do these
00:05:49elections influence the wars that are being waged at
00:05:52this moment all over the world? We are talking about the war in Iran, about
00:05:56the war in Yemen, and of course about the war
00:05:59in Ukraine. Today we have a special guest, it is
00:06:03Ms. Antonia Pup, doctoral
00:06:05researcher at the European
00:06:09University Institute. Ms. Pup, welcome to Impact Plus and thank you for being
00:06:12with us. Thank you very much for
00:06:15the invitation and I greet
00:06:18your viewers.
00:06:21I was talking about the greatest democracy in the world. Please
00:06:25tell me if I was right
00:06:27or not. Indeed,
00:06:30it is
00:06:34in any case about
00:06:37the state that still exercises a certain hegemony
00:06:40on the international scene. It
00:06:42is about the nation that, after
00:06:46all, sets the tone not only in terms of
00:06:50the alliance system of which Romania and
00:06:53the Republic of Moldova are part, but also
00:06:57the champion and
00:07:00the nation that defines everything that
00:07:04currently means a standard of
00:07:07technology, so especially in the context
00:07:10where, as you said. "there are very
00:07:13many ongoing
00:07:16wars, and
00:07:20NATO is in a realignment process,
00:07:24all the more so, I believe, these elections will
00:07:27be decisive. The
00:07:30midterm elections that will conclude
00:07:33in the first days of November
00:07:37are very important, not
00:07:40only because we look more at the foreign
00:07:43policy aspect, not
00:07:47only from the perspective of the immediate levers that
00:07:50Congress could
00:07:53influence, because Congress still has limited powers when it comes
00:07:57to the diplomatic apparatus of the United States, but
00:08:00rather it's worth looking at them because it is ultimately
00:08:04a referendum on the
00:08:07Trump presidency and
00:08:10a moment when certain
00:08:14themes will be tested in preparation for
00:08:172028. Yes, I made a small
00:08:21foray, but I would like you to explain what these
00:08:24midterm elections mean, because they are somewhat
00:08:27different from what we are used to here in Europe
00:08:31and in Romania or the Republic of Moldova. Here we have elections
00:08:35in which we elect either the president, or the local government, or
00:08:38the parliamentary power. What do these elections mean and how
00:08:42do they take place, how does this process unfold for
00:08:45Americans? They are parliamentary
00:08:48elections, practically, if I were to draw a
00:08:52quick analogy to the European
00:08:55system, practically we are talking about elections that
00:08:59will influence how Congress
00:09:01looks. It is very important to say
00:09:04that citizens will go to the polls to
00:09:08elect their representatives who will then go to Washington and will
00:09:13support that constituency to
00:09:16achieve certain projects. Obviously there are
00:09:19certain states, for example, like Texas, which
00:09:23we know clearly will go,
00:09:26no matter what, they vote with the Republicans,
00:09:29or for example New York, in New York and
00:09:33even in the District of Columbia, the Democrats
00:09:36are in power, so there are
00:09:39states, blue.
00:09:43But these swing states are very important,
00:09:46for example Michigan, for example
00:09:49Pennsylvania, because there
00:09:53the Democrats and Republicans fight directly. Even
00:09:57though now in November we will have the actual
00:10:00elections, considering that it is known that, for
00:10:03example, Illinois will still send Democratic
00:10:07senators, practically the winner has already
00:10:10been decided because...
00:10:13the real race was when
00:10:15the primaries took place, in which
00:10:19only people from
00:10:22the Democratic party or
00:10:25they fought among themselves, so I say these elections are important not only to see
00:10:29what Congress will look like and a victory for the
00:10:32Democrats is emerging, at least to
00:10:36take over power in the House of Representatives,
00:10:39which is the equivalent
00:10:43of our House of Deputies - and they also have
00:10:47the Senate, they being fewer in the Senate, only
00:10:51100, and they
00:10:54are much more... seen as a more
00:10:56select chamber, they are important not only from the perspective
00:11:00of how the actual governance will look,
00:11:03the parliamentary power, but also to see
00:11:07what kind
00:11:10of, in what directions the two parties will go, because
00:11:14even within these two large parties there are many factions and
00:11:18perhaps on this occasion it is worth mentioning
00:11:21that the European Council on Foreign Relations just
00:11:25launched this week a quite comprehensive study that
00:11:29talks about three camps that currently exist
00:11:32in the Democratic party,
00:11:35so although the hard core of the Democratic party is
00:11:39still an internationalist one, one more
00:11:42aligned with the bipartisan consensus on foreign
00:11:46policy with the US that must maintain a robust military
00:11:49presence in Europe, for example,
00:11:53at least two other
00:11:56factions are emerging. Once we talk about the reformist faction, which
00:12:00is somewhere between
00:12:03the extreme and this hard internationalist
00:12:06core, which only seeks
00:12:09to modify in certain aspects American
00:12:13governance, to reform the state more to
00:12:17provide social benefits for citizens, and
00:12:21it will be very interesting to follow
00:12:24how the revolutionaries
00:12:27will emerge, because there are
00:12:30it's about a wave, I would say that
00:12:33they are certainly very far from being truly
00:12:37influential in the Democratic party, but we are talking
00:12:41about politicians like
00:12:44Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
00:12:47politicians supported by the progressive wave with Zoran
00:12:51Mandami, the Mayor of New York, Jim Crow.
00:12:55Ro Khanna from California, those
00:12:59who are much more,
00:13:02much more skeptical of the military engagement of
00:13:06the United States in,
00:13:09around the globe. So, it's not
00:13:13important only for what Congress will look like and what the
00:13:162028 election year will look like, but also for
00:13:19challenging us Europeans to think
00:13:22about whether, indeed, with the Democrats,
00:13:26we would return to that romantic period of
00:13:29transatlantic partnership, as we knew it, with very
00:13:32few costs, with shared common values that
00:13:36could mobilize various external efforts, with aid for
00:13:39Ukraine, after all,
00:13:43I know that even this summer,
00:13:46the emeritus president of the Progressive Caucus in the House
00:13:50of Representatives was
00:13:53on a visit to Brussels, because they are also looking, just as
00:13:57MAGA was looking for transnational allies, they
00:14:00are also doing it among progressives, and
00:14:03they are quite skeptical about continuing
00:14:07to support NATO just as a military
00:14:11alliance. Let's remember
00:14:15the pacifist rhetoric of Senator Bernie
00:14:17Sanders and let's return to talking
00:14:21less about war and talking more about
00:14:24peace, about human rights as being at the foundation
00:14:28of American foreign policy. Ms.
00:14:31Pup, you said that these elections are also a poll for
00:14:35the Trump administration. In the
00:14:37previous presidential elections when there was also a vote
00:14:41for a part of Congress and Senate, Donald Trump
00:14:47the Republicans. What does Donald Trump represent at this moment,
00:14:50because I saw statements by the President of the United States in
00:14:54which he promised money, in which
00:14:57he promised to vote for him, meaning by voting Republican, you vote for him. What
00:15:01does Donald Trump represent at this moment, is he a locomotive or is he a stone that
00:15:04weighs down the Republican
00:15:07Party?
00:15:10That's a very good question. I would
00:15:13add to the examples you already
00:15:15mentioned that recently Vice President JD
00:15:19Vance appeared with a message in which he says that
00:15:23he addresses his electorate,
00:15:27saying that we need more time,
00:15:30that we need you to give us another vote
00:15:33of confidence, a blank check if
00:15:36possible, to achieve the reforms
00:15:40we have proposed. He is also the one who
00:15:42was now appointed by President Trump to
00:15:46be the president of an intergovernmental
00:15:49commission to combat
00:15:52corruption, somehow again we see very
00:15:56many almost populist
00:15:58efforts
00:16:01to address an
00:16:04electorate that is left behind, it's
00:16:07about the rural electorate, from socially
00:16:11disadvantaged areas that
00:16:15doesn't understand how it was possible for President
00:16:18Trump to allow what happened
00:16:22with the war in Iran. I would tend to believe
00:16:25that indeed
00:16:28a rapid
00:16:31decrease in the popularity of the
00:16:34incumbent president. I think that
00:16:37we are skeptical, we are, we must be
00:16:41skeptical about the future of
00:16:44MAGA, if we can talk about a future MAGA in Trump's
00:16:48absence, I honestly don't think so, because MAGA
00:16:52was a political coalition
00:16:55so intimately linked to the figure of President
00:16:58Trump that
00:17:01I wouldn't see a
00:17:05possible successor who could
00:17:08attract the same level of popularity, but
00:17:11I think locally already there will
00:17:14be
00:17:16people who try to position themselves for
00:17:202028. Nevertheless, I don't think
00:17:23the elections for Congress will
00:17:26prevent Donald Trump from remaining that very active
00:17:29president on the international scene,
00:17:32very
00:17:37willing to address certain aspects
00:17:40head-on, so I don't think it would
00:17:43stop him. So maybe in a way, he is a
00:17:46millstone around the Republican party's neck at the moment,
00:17:50but the Republican party will not be a millstone around
00:17:54Donald Trump's neck. However, I think it's important
00:17:57for Europe, for European leaders to think about how
00:18:01they will be able to create some
00:18:04ties with the current Democratic party,
00:18:08which is no longer that internationalist
00:18:11Democrat across the entire
00:18:15spectrum of its leaders, as we have
00:18:18become accustomed to up to President Biden, and
00:18:21I would say that the last, the last
00:18:25truly transatlantic presidency
00:18:28at the White House. In other words, we must understand that
00:18:32that
00:18:35isolation that Donald Trump brought to the White House
00:18:38is at this moment, it is a kind of
00:18:41trans-partisan slogan for the entire American establishment and for
00:18:45the American population.
00:18:48For the establishment, I don't think so, because
00:18:51I am convinced that in American
00:18:54institutions, especially those in the national security and
00:18:57foreign policy ecosystem,
00:19:00the role of alliances is still seen.
00:19:04There are people who realize that when it comes
00:19:08to strategic competition with China, for example, on the technology side, on the
00:19:12rare earths side, the US
00:19:15cannot win this competition without
00:19:18allies, who are not just a
00:19:21burden, as we often
00:19:23hear, who are tempted to free-
00:19:27ride on the defense budget of the
00:19:30United States, which is an impressive one at
00:19:34the Pentagon, but we are talking about the role that
00:19:38allies play in
00:19:40multiplying the objectives of the United States in
00:19:44their own regions and in ensuring a certain order, so
00:19:48I think the establishment continues to cling
00:19:52to these alliances, including
00:19:54NATO. I think the analysis environment as
00:19:57well, clings to
00:20:00the preservation of these international cooperation
00:20:03mechanisms. However, I think that political elites
00:20:07are increasingly less willing
00:20:11to focus on an international
00:20:14agenda of
00:20:17hegemony and much more
00:20:21willing to try to
00:20:24solve problems domestically
00:20:26and to have an approach on the international
00:20:29scene that is more
00:20:31à la carte. However, I think it's
00:20:35very interesting to note that for
00:20:39the first time this bipartisan
00:20:42consensus does not only affect Europe,
00:20:46NATO, whether we support Ukraine or not.
00:20:50Time for another sensitive topic,
00:20:54which is contested in the American
00:20:57political environment, namely support for
00:21:00Israel. There are many people,
00:21:02both people
00:21:06from the more extreme,
00:21:10more radical wing of the Republican party, as well
00:21:12as from the very radical wing of the Democratic party, the
00:21:16ultra-progressives, pacifists,
00:21:20who believe that the United States was drawn into
00:21:23this war by the
00:21:27government led by
00:21:30Mr. Netanyahu, for example,
00:21:33one of the chairmen
00:21:37in the Senate, yes, we're talking about the committee that oversees the American
00:21:40intelligence community, Tim
00:21:43Cotton, who is a prominent Republican leader
00:21:47and also had messages from the
00:21:50"America First" camp. He is challenged by his own
00:21:54party colleagues because he introduced a law
00:21:57as part of the NDAA, through which
00:22:00to ensure that no American president would be able
00:22:04to limit, or no political
00:22:07power
00:22:09temporarily in the decision-making spectrum would be able to
00:22:13limit the
00:22:16exchange of information that takes place between the United States and Israel, which.
00:22:20"after all, is at a very
00:22:22intimate level, but not as intimate as
00:22:26perhaps exists at the level of
00:22:28alliances.
00:22:30And Israel, as I said, is a topic
00:22:34that divides both parties at the moment,
00:22:37given the extension of the
00:22:40war in Iran and the high cost of
00:22:43living, which are the secondary
00:22:46effects of the US engaging in another
00:22:50war in the Middle East. Ms.
00:22:53Pup, we know that in the previous elections President Trump, one
00:22:57of the topics, one of the most important topics discussed
00:23:01in the election campaign, of course, was the war in Ukraine, it was the
00:23:05migration problem. What issues are currently
00:23:08concerning the American electorate and
00:23:12what are on the agenda for each
00:23:15candidate who is now running for these midterm
00:23:18elections?
00:23:21The big, big theme is still the cost of
00:23:24living, economic
00:23:26themes, the price at
00:23:29the pump, the price of
00:23:32food, which have increased quite
00:23:35a lot, considering the
00:23:38disruptions that have occurred
00:23:41in the energy market,
00:23:44with the war in Iran. However, the
00:23:48question
00:23:50is whether Europe and our region, Ukraine,
00:23:54for example, are on the agenda. The same
00:23:57study I was telling you about,
00:24:01but also a personal analysis shows
00:24:04us that
00:24:07we are not talking about Europe or Ukraine as
00:24:11a subject on the agenda of the midterm elections at the moment,
00:24:14by any means. But more than
00:24:18that, the theme that
00:24:22is emerging to be central both
00:24:25in these elections and in the
00:24:282028 elections also has an
00:24:31economic component for American society, and
00:24:35for us even a
00:24:38geopolitical component, a component
00:24:42that relates to the strategic partnership with the United States, that you
00:24:46heard the President of Romania
00:24:50say that he wants to attract more American
00:24:53investments in our country. We know that
00:24:56President Maia
00:24:59Sandu also wants to develop
00:25:03the economic partnership with Washington, but
00:25:06the topic that, as I said, is the most
00:25:08sensitive is
00:25:12artificial intelligence. There are many
00:25:16states, around 5.
00:25:20So, we are talking about a representative
00:25:24number of states
00:25:26that want
00:25:28to organize
00:25:32these
00:25:34referendums and to
00:25:37have moratoriums to
00:25:40stop the establishment of new data
00:25:44centers in those communities. Local
00:25:47communities in the United States are
00:25:50very concerned about the environmental costs that come with
00:25:54these technological projects. I
00:25:57remember that a congresswoman from
00:26:00the House of Representatives during a hearing
00:26:04came with a jar full of black
00:26:07water, which was
00:26:11meant to show how water
00:26:14sources are affected by the existence of these
00:26:17data centers. New York State, for example, has
00:26:21a new law, a law that says
00:26:25stop the construction of new data
00:26:28centers. And this is a...
00:26:32an issue of environmental cost, but also how the economy
00:26:36will look once these advanced
00:26:39artificial intelligence models are integrated
00:26:42into the labor market, which will
00:26:45result in automation, in an
00:26:49increase in productivity for those companies, but also an
00:26:52unprecedented layoff of the workforce,
00:26:56and this especially affects young
00:27:00people who today do not have a professional
00:27:03integration horizon, and this
00:27:07issue will certainly reach Europe
00:27:10in the coming years. Europe
00:27:13is now looking to attract
00:27:16hyperscalers to our
00:27:20states, and to catch up
00:27:23with this artificial intelligence revolution, which
00:27:27has the United States and China as its
00:27:29main protagonists. But I think that our
00:27:33political elites need to think, to learn from what is happening
00:27:37across the ocean and to communicate with the
00:27:40population in advance about what
00:27:43such a large-capital technological project entails.
00:27:46You mentioned the 2028
00:27:49election year, when new
00:27:53presidential elections will be held. I understand Donald Trump can no
00:27:56longer run because he is at the end, he will be at the end of his
00:28:00second term in 2020.
00:28:02The internal elections, those called
00:28:06primaries, would begin in '27. What do
00:28:09the polls say, who is the favorite in
00:28:12the Democratic camp and who is the favorite
00:28:14in the Republican camp?
00:28:17In the Republican camp, I think at the moment
00:28:21it is well-known that
00:28:23we have two possible
00:28:26candidates with a presidential
00:28:29profile, but neither of them
00:28:32currently has enough national
00:28:36notoriety to say if they could
00:28:39truly be the successor to Donald Trump, who, after
00:28:43all, in his Hollywood style,
00:28:46was known by many people. The two
00:28:49contenders would be,
00:28:51according to the most recent analyses,
00:28:55Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of
00:28:58State Marco Rubio, with JD Vance being considered
00:29:03a MAGA hardliner, while Marco Rubio
00:29:07is seen as a more moderate leader, one who could
00:29:11cooperate. and with the leaders
00:29:15of the Democratic party, but it's still
00:29:17very early, I think this
00:29:21discussion will be able to be had more calmly after we
00:29:24see exactly who are the
00:29:28potential national profile leaders who will emerge from
00:29:32these elections for Congress, in the Democratic
00:29:35Party, I think at the moment,
00:29:39față,
00:29:42speaking of the three camps, I think
00:29:45the Democratic party is currently lacking
00:29:49coherent leadership.
00:29:53a possible comeback for Kamala
00:29:57Harris, who, after all, did not have a
00:30:01negligible performance in the
00:30:05elections against Donald Trump, especially since
00:30:09she also had limited financial resources
00:30:11that prevented her from
00:30:14going across the
00:30:17entire nation and addressing
00:30:21a small piece of the country, but
00:30:23besides that, we also have certain
00:30:26leaders who could
00:30:29be
00:30:31those who... give a new breath to the Democratic Party, we've already
00:30:35talked about
00:30:38Ms. Cortez from New York,
00:30:41who participated in the security conference in
00:30:45Munich, she's trying to address some more
00:30:49national
00:30:51themes, more foreign policy and security, more
00:30:54presidential, if you will,
00:30:57if we take it that way,