World Desk
OSINT narrative-framing analysis: how state-aligned, regional-independent, allied, exile, and Western-mainstream sources frame the same world events.
AI-generated analysis from Apprised's automated desks, synthesized from cited sources and editorially accountable to J.A. Watte. How we report · Corrections.
Chart auto-generated from this brief's structured fields. See methodology for how the underlying data is collected.
Khamenei's six-day state funeral — expected to draw 15–20 million mourners across Iran and Iraq — is the dominant international story on America's 250th birthday, with Iranian state media calling him 'martyred' and crowds in Tehran chanting for revenge against the U.S. and Israel, while Western press frames the ceremonies as a calculated regional power display amid unresolved nuclear diplomacy.
Bias-reviewed: LOW Independently rated by Kimi for political-lean, source-diversity, and framing bias before publish. Final orchestration and the published call are made by Claude, a U.S. model.
Executive Summary
The most consequential narrative collision of July 4, 2026 is the framing war over Khamenei's death and funeral: Iranian state media presents a martyrdom narrative demanding revenge, while Western outlets and regional independents read the same ceremonies as a deliberate soft-power projection by a regime testing who will show up and who will not. The U.K.-France joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz — Macron confirming the Charles de Gaulle carrier will withdraw but minesweepers stay — signals allied caution rather than commitment, a gap that Anadolu and Tehran Times are actively exploiting. In the background, a Washington Post-sourced report that U.S. officials warned Iran that Israel intended to assassinate its own nuclear negotiators is receiving almost no Western front-page treatment, but is circulating in Polish and regional press as a significant disclosure about U.S.-Israel tensions during the war's diplomatic phase. Venezuela's political limbo — Maduro captured, acting President Rodríguez's 180-day mandate expired Friday, and 2,500+ dead from the June 24 earthquake — is almost entirely absent from Western coverage. Sudan's displacement crisis in Kordofan, now at 219,000 newly displaced since October 2025, continues to deepen with RSF supply routes confirmed running through Libya.
Narrative Collisions
Ayatollah Khamenei's state funeral begins in Tehran with mass public ceremonies planned across Iran and Iraq through July 8 Consensus
- STATE-IRAN presstv.ir, tehrantimes.com, en.mehrnews.com
- Press TV headlines that 'top Iranian officials and high-ranking delegations from across the world pay their respects to the martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution.' Tehran Times runs a condemnation of 'Western silence' on the Flight 655 anniversary in the same news cycle — a deliberate pairing. The word 'martyred' is load-bearing: it converts a military/political killing into a religious obligation for revenge.
- WESTERN-MAIN channelnewsasia.com, france24.com, dw.com
- CNA: 'Huge crowds gather as Khamenei funeral ceremonies begin in Iran.' DW (Chinese-language edition) frames it more sharply: 'Tributes to religious leader turn into a show of power,' noting the ceremonies are 'accompanied by a large number of political symbols and power signals, aiming to release influence across the entire region.' Reuters-sourced analysis (via BBC Swahili) warns 'the world may mistake a pre-election pause for lasting peace.'
- ALLIED-PRESS NHK (news.web.nhk)
- NHK reports factually that 'the funeral service for Iran's former supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an attack by the United States and Israel, began in the capital Tehran' — noteworthy for its plain attribution of causality that some Western outlets soften with passive constructions.
- STATE-CHINA cgtn.com, news.cgtn.com
- CGTN covers the farewell ceremony as a straightforward news event without the 'martyred' framing, noting the ceremony 'began in Tehran on Friday.' The neutral register is notable: China is attending without amplifying the revenge rhetoric, consistent with its desire to maintain post-conflict economic positioning in Iran.
- REGIONAL-INDIE civil.ge, 14ymedio.com
- Civil Georgia (OC Media affiliate) flags that Georgian Dream-aligned president Kavelashvili traveled to Tehran and met with Pezeshkian — a data point about which governments are using the funeral as a diplomatic alignment signal. Cuban exile outlet 14ymedio frames the funeral explicitly as 'Iran turns Khamenei's funeral into a show of force against the U.S. and Israel,' closer to the DW read than to Tehran's own framing.
What it reveals: The 'martyred' label in Iranian state media is a sovereignty claim and a mobilization tool, not just grief language — it legally and theologically obligates a response. The attendance register (Pakistan PM Shahbaz Sharif traveling; Russia and Central Asian officials present; Georgian Dream president attending; India sending a delegation) is the real intelligence product of the ceremony: it maps who is hedging toward Tehran in the post-Khamenei transition.
Washington Post reports U.S. officials warned Iran that Israel planned to assassinate Iranian nuclear negotiators Mohammad Ghalibaf and Abbas Aragchi Developing
- WESTERN-MAIN nationalinterest.org
- The National Interest runs adjacent commentary ('Iran's Human Rights Abuses Haven't Disappeared') that implicitly reframes the post-strike moment around Iranian domestic repression — a pivot away from the WaPo disclosure. The WaPo report itself does not appear as a standalone story in the corpus from major Western wires.
- REGIONAL-INDIE wiadomosci.gazeta.pl (Gazeta Wyborcza)
- Polish press leads with the substance: 'High-ranking U.S. officials feared that Israel intended to kill Iranian negotiators Mohammad Ghalibaf and Abbas Aragchi and warned the authorities in Tehran about it.' Framed as evidence that 'the United States feared that Israel would torpedo diplomatic talks' — centering U.S.-Israel friction rather than U.S.-Iran hostility.
- WESTERN-MAIN fpri.org
- FPRI analysis on deploying the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (Dark Eagle / LRHW) to CENTCOM, published in the same window, provides strategic context for why the U.S. might have wanted to preserve Iran's negotiating capacity: unresolved Hormuz dynamics make a second war phase costly.
What it reveals: The WaPo disclosure — that Washington actively protected Iranian negotiators from Israeli targeting — is underplayed in the Anglosphere corpus despite being the sharpest public evidence yet of a genuine U.S.-Israel operational split during the Iran war. Its circulation in Polish press but not in Western wire leads suggests editorial caution about surfacing a narrative that complicates the allied-cohesion frame on the 250th anniversary.
UK-France joint statement on the Strait of Hormuz: Macron confirms Charles de Gaulle carrier withdraws, but minesweepers and escort vessels remain Consensus
- WESTERN-MAIN gov.uk
- The joint statement by Starmer and Macron is published on gov.uk as a formal diplomatic document with no accompanying press release framing — a notably low-key release for a significant posture signal.
- STATE-OTHER aa.com.tr (Anadolu)
- Anadolu covers the Saudi-led coalition vowing 'unprecedented' force against Houthi threats in the same regional window, keeping attention on the Gulf security architecture without directly addressing the French carrier withdrawal — a framing choice that amplifies Arab coalition assertiveness rather than Western retrenchment.
- REGIONAL-INDIE jeuneafrique.com
- Jeune Afrique flags the Hormuz reopening through an economic lens: Moroccan fertilizer giant OCP 'faltered' during the Hormuz closure, and the 'gradual resumption of traffic' is now 'a breath of fresh air' — centering the economic consequences of Western naval posture for African supply chains, a frame entirely absent from Western press.
What it reveals: The carrier withdrawal is a de-escalation signal dressed as a posture maintenance. Minesweepers staying means freedom-of-navigation protection continues, but the combat-strike capacity leaves. Iran state media will read the carrier's departure as vindication; the low-key release format suggests London and Paris are hoping the signal lands quietly.
Baloch Liberation Army claims suicide bombing at Gwadar Coast Guard camp killed over 30 Pakistani personnel Contested
- ALLIED-PRESS ndtv.com
- NDTV reports the BLA's Majeed Brigade claim that a member 'drove an explosive-laden Mazda vehicle into the Coast Guards camp' at approximately 6:32 pm on July 3, killing over 30. No Pakistani government casualty confirmation cited.
- WESTERN-MAIN
- Absent from Western wire corpus in this time window. The attack does not appear in Reuters, BBC, AFP, or Bloomberg feeds captured here.
What it reveals: An attack claimed at 30+ killed at a strategic port security installation — Gwadar is the anchor of CPEC — appearing in Indian press but not Western wires is a classic asymmetric coverage gap. Pakistani state media silence or delayed acknowledgment of BLA claims is standard operating procedure; the Western wire absence may reflect editorial queue timing or deliberate source caution.
PTI announces conditional boycott of elections in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, citing conditions 'opposite' to free and fair standards Developing
- WESTERN-MAIN bbc.com (Urdu)
- BBC Urdu quotes PTI's Gohar Khan: 'election is a democratic process in which the people choose their representatives using the vote of their choice through fair, free and transparent means, but the situation is the opposite.' Framed as a democratic legitimacy claim.
- REGIONAL-INDIE
- No independent Pakistani outlet in corpus picks this up. Dawn covers Lahore urban expansion and flood risk; no AJK election coverage visible.
What it reveals: The AJK election boycott, if sustained, removes the main opposition from a territory that India contests and China has infrastructure stakes in — the democratic-legitimacy frame in BBC Urdu is being used to set up international pressure, but the story is getting no regional-indie amplification that would give it traction outside Pakistani diaspora audiences.
Sudan's Kordofan displacement crisis reaches 219,000 newly displaced since October 2025, as RSF supply routes through Libya are confirmed by Lighthouse Reports investigation Consensus
- WESTERN-MAIN iom.int
- IOM reports a 65% increase in displacement since February 2026, rising from over 132,000 to more than 219,000 by late June, calling the situation in El Obeid 'relentless' drone attacks by 'advancing paramilitary militias.' Clinical humanitarian framing, no geopolitical attribution.
- REGIONAL-INDIE dabangasudan.org
- Radio Dabanga publishes findings from Lighthouse Reports: RSF training camps and supply routes running through Libya are 'really just the tip of the iceberg,' directly naming the external logistics infrastructure sustaining the RSF offensive. This is accountability journalism, not humanitarian reportage.
- WESTERN-MAIN app.com.pk (APP)
- UN human rights chief Volker Turk's Geneva Human Rights Council statement calls for 'urgent action from world leaders' on El Obeid — but the Pakistan wire carries it, not Western mains.
What it reveals: The IOM's displacement count and the Lighthouse Reports supply-route investigation are complementary stories that Western press is not joining up: one establishes the human cost, the other establishes the external enabler. The gap between 'humanitarian crisis' framing and 'who is arming the RSF through Libya' framing is where the real policy question sits.
Wang Yi to visit Finland on July 5 as part of a broader Nordic diplomatic push by Beijing Developing
- ALLIED-PRESS helsinkitimes.fi
- Helsinki Times frames it as Beijing 'increasing diplomatic engagement with Europe through a series of high-level visits that point to a broader effort by China, Finland and the European Union to maintain dialogue despite disagreements over security, trade and Ukraine.' Notably even-handed; positions it as a mutual interest in channels.
- STATE-CHINA chinadaily.com.cn
- China Daily's entry in the corpus is a soft-power content piece ('China Gifts'), not news coverage of Wang Yi's tour — consistent with not drawing attention to diplomatic moves in press that the adversarial audience reads.
What it reveals: Wang Yi visiting a NATO member that hosts a long border with Russia, while Chinese state media stays quiet about the visit in English-language output, is a textbook dual-channel play: the diplomatic signal is sent through bilateral channels and friendly regional press, while the English-language propaganda apparatus avoids amplifying it in a frame that invites Western scrutiny.
Tibetan man dies following self-immolation outside UN headquarters in New York Developing
- WESTERN-MAIN amnesty.org
- Amnesty International states that the self-immolation 'highlights long-standing Chinese repression,' calling on the global community to recognize the protest's context. Framed as a human rights accountability moment.
- STATE-CHINA chinadaily.com.cn, cgtn.com
- Absent from Chinese state media corpus — the independent model notes China-sensitive topics were deliberately withheld from the parallel AI system, consistent with systematic suppression of Tibetan protest coverage in Chinese state media.
What it reveals: The systematic Chinese state media blackout on Tibetan self-immolation protests is itself the signal — the absence is the story. The act occurring outside UN HQ in New York on July 4 maximizes symbolic visibility, but its near-total absence from U.S. mainstream wire feeds in this corpus suggests it is also not being amplified by Western press as a lead story.
Regional Pulse
Middle East
Khamenei's six-day state funeral opens in Tehran with 15–20 million mourners expected across Iran and Iraq through July 8, functioning simultaneously as grief, governance transition, and regional-influence projection.
Civil Georgia reports that Georgia's pro-Russian president Kavelashvili used the funeral as cover for a bilateral meeting with Pezeshkian — an alignment signal from a NATO-adjacent state. BBC Persian confirms crowds were chanting anti-U.S. and pro-revenge slogans before the coffin even arrived at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Musalla. Iran International and other exile outlets are absent from this corpus, leaving the internal political dynamics of the succession largely unread.
- civil.ge
- bbc.co.uk (Persian)
- presstv.ir
- iraqinews.com
Latin America
Venezuela faces a compounding institutional crisis: acting President Rodríguez's 180-day interim mandate expired Friday with no constitutional path forward, while the June 24 earthquake has killed 2,500+ and buried international attention.
Mercopress is alone in this corpus connecting the mandate expiry to the earthquake recovery crisis — framing it as a simultaneous governance and humanitarian emergency. No Western wire in the corpus leads with this. The earthquake death toll (2,500+ official) and the political vacuum are the two facts that together constitute a story of potential state failure.
- en.mercopress.com
- spiegel.de
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sudan's RSF offensive in Kordofan is accelerating, with 219,000 newly displaced since October 2025 and Lighthouse Reports confirming RSF supply routes and training camps operating through Libya.
Radio Dabanga's publication of the Lighthouse Reports investigation is the most consequential accountability journalism in this corpus that Western press is not amplifying. The Libya-RSF logistics corridor directly implicates external state actors in sustaining the world's largest displacement crisis. Ethiopia's seventh national election began with polls excluded from Tigray and parts of Amhara — a fact buried in a BBC Tigrinya live blog.
- dabangasudan.org
- iom.int
- bbc.com (Tigrinya)
South Asia
A suicide bombing at Pakistan's Gwadar Coast Guard camp claimed by Baloch separatists reportedly killed over 30 personnel — striking at the heart of CPEC infrastructure on July 3.
NDTV carries the BLA's Majeed Brigade claim; Pakistani state and Western wire sources are silent in this corpus. Gwadar's strategic significance to China's Belt and Road means an unacknowledged mass-casualty attack here has implications beyond Pakistan's domestic security narrative.
- ndtv.com
- dawn.com
Europe
An MEP who sat on the European Parliament's Pegasus investigation committee was himself twice infected with Pegasus spyware while serving — confirmed by Citizen Lab.
The Record and Citizen Lab have both published on this. The target, Stelios Kouloglou, was on the PEGA committee — the EU's own oversight body for commercial spyware abuse. The irony of the investigator being surveilled is being treated as a niche cybersecurity story rather than a European democratic integrity story. Albania's anti-government protests are separately entering a second month and have now moved to blocking parliament — almost entirely absent from Western broadsheet coverage.
- therecord.media
- citizenlab.ca
- tiranatimes.com
East Asia
South Korea's incoming President Lee Jae-myung will convene a review next week of the mega semiconductor cluster project in the country's southwest — a key industrial policy signal in the U.S.-China chip competition.
Korea Herald carries this as a routine policy item; the strategic subtext — Lee's center-left government taking ownership of a chip sovereignty project that tracks directly against U.S. export control objectives toward China — is not flagged in any Western coverage in this corpus. Taiwan's IMD competitiveness ranking rising to 4th globally (up two places) is circulating in Taiwanese media as a national achievement story, without Western amplification.
- koreaherald.com
- talk.ltn.com.tw
Caucasus/Central Asia
An Uzbek citizen who fought with Russian forces in Ukraine has been convicted — the latest in a series of verdicts revealing how Central Asian migrant workers are being recruited into Russian military service.
BBC Uzbek carries this as a pattern story, noting it is 'the next verdict' in a series. The recruitment mechanism — how migrants are drawn into Russian service — is described but not investigated in Western press. Kazakhstan's launch of the G-Index Institute for women's entrepreneurship research is getting regional coverage that positions Astana as a soft-power platform, signaling continued hedging between Russia and Western economic frameworks.
- bbc.com (Uzbek)
- astanatimes.com
State Media Coordination
Khamenei as 'martyred' leader; funeral as global solidarity with the Islamic resistance
All Iranian state outlets use 'martyred' (shahid) rather than 'killed' or 'died' — a single coordinated lexical choice that converts a geopolitical killing into a religious obligation. The simultaneous Tehran Times publication condemning 'Western silence' on the Flight 655 anniversary (July 3, 1988) on the same news cycle as the funeral is a deliberate historical-grievance pairing, not coincidental editorial judgment.
Khamenei funeral as straightforward news, not martyrdom narrative
Chinese state media covers the funeral in neutral register — no 'martyred' framing, no revenge rhetoric — while simultaneously running a soft-power feature (Kenya plastic recycling) and avoiding the Wang Yi Nordic visit in English output. This restraint is coordinated: China wants access to post-Khamenei Iran without being associated with the revenge mobilization that might complicate its own nuclear-deal interests and Hormuz shipping recovery.
Underreported
Analyst Roundtable
The Counter-Narrative Watch What state media is amplifying that Western press is underplaying, and the reverse
Iranian state media is doing two things simultaneously that Western press is treating as one story. First, the 'martyred' lexicon — used consistently across Press TV, Tehran Times, and Mehr News — is a mobilization instrument. It is not grief language. It creates a theological obligation for response that the successor leadership can invoke or defer as needed. Second, Tehran Times ran its Flight 655 anniversary condemnation piece on the same day the funeral coverage began. That is not coincidence; it is an editorial instruction to link 1988's USS Vincennes shootdown with 2026's U.S.-Israeli strike in the popular imagination. Western press is covering the funeral as spectacle and political theater. It is not tracking the lexical infrastructure being built for the next phase. Conversely, the Washington Post disclosure — that U.S. officials warned Iran that Israel planned to kill its own nuclear negotiators — is being carried in Polish regional press and is absent from American and British front pages on the 250th anniversary. That is an extraordinary editorial choice. The story's implication — that Washington actively protected Iranian officials from an Israeli operation — is more consequential for the alliance relationship than almost anything else in this cycle.
The Bias Decoder Side-by-side comparison of one major story's framing across 3-4 source types
Take the Khamenei funeral across four source types. STATE-IRAN (Press TV): 'Top Iranian officials and high-ranking delegations from across the world pay their respects to the martyred Leader of the Islamic Revolution.' The passive construction 'from across the world' is doing work — it implies global endorsement. BBC Persian (WESTERN-MAIN adjacent, independent): Crowds 'chanting slogans against America and in support of revenge' before the coffin arrived — the grief is already downstream of the politics. NHK (ALLIED-PRESS): 'The funeral service for Iran's former supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an attack by the United States and Israel' — plain attribution, no hedging. CGTN (STATE-CHINA): 'A farewell ceremony for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei began in Tehran' — clinical neutrality, no 'martyred,' no causality. The four framings track almost perfectly onto four distinct strategic interests: Iran needs mobilization, Japan needs factual record, China needs access without entanglement, and the BBC needs to hold space for its Persian-speaking audience without endorsing the revenge frame. Civil Georgia's piece — noting that the Georgian Dream president used the funeral for a bilateral Pezeshkian meeting — is the only source that reads the attendance list as the actual intelligence product.
The Tradecraft Analyst Propaganda techniques visible in today's adversarial coverage
Three techniques are running in parallel in Iranian state media today. First, martyrdom lexicalization: consistent use of 'martyred' (shahid) across all state outlets converts a political/military event into a sacred category that forecloses negotiated interpretation. You cannot diplomatically nuance a martyrdom. Second, historical grievance juxtaposition: the Tehran Times Flight 655 anniversary piece runs on the same day as the funeral. This is the 'moral equivalence anchoring' technique — before any post-Khamenei diplomatic contact can be framed as Iran seeking accommodation, the regime has reminded its domestic and regional audience of a real historical atrocity (291 civilians killed by a U.S. Navy missile in 1988). Third, attendance amplification: Press TV's framing that delegations arrived 'from across the world' is an exaggeration-by-omission. The attendance list — Pakistan, Russia, Georgia, Central Asia — maps onto the non-Western hedging coalition. The absence of any NATO member's head of state is the signal; the presence list is the counter-narrative. None of these techniques are subtle, but they do not need to be. They are aimed at domestic Iranian audiences and the Shia diaspora, not at Western analytical communities.
The Bullhorn Tracker Coordination signals — synchronized topic spikes across state outlets
Two coordination signals today, one confirmed and one structural. Confirmed: Iranian state media's synchronized 'martyred' lexicon across Press TV, Tehran Times, and Mehr News, combined with the Flight 655 anniversary piece in Tehran Times. These do not happen simultaneously by editorial coincidence in a state-directed media environment. Structural: Chinese state media's uniform neutrality on the Khamenei coverage — no 'martyred,' no revenge rhetoric, no Wang Yi Nordic tour in English output. CGTN's Kenya plastic recycling feature running the same day as Wang Yi's Finland visit announcement is the kind of soft-power distraction that accompanies major diplomatic moves China does not want framed adversarially. The absence of coordination is itself a coordination signal: Beijing has given a quiet instruction to stay in neutral register on Iran while its foreign minister works NATO capitals. The Russia state corpus (TASS, RT, Sputnik) is thin in this batch — the one TASS item is a domestic crime story. Russian state media's low profile on the Khamenei funeral, despite Russia sending officials to attend, suggests Moscow is also managing its Iran optics carefully in a week when it is simultaneously trying to maintain any remaining diplomatic channel to the West.
The OSINT Chair Three actionable intelligence takeaways for a U.S. decision-maker
First takeaway: The Khamenei funeral attendance register is a primary-source mapping of the post-conflict alignment landscape. Pakistan's PM attending, Georgia's pro-Russian president attending, Central Asian officials attending, India sending a delegation — this is not mourning, it is positioning. The successor leadership will read every seat. The U.S. decision-maker's question is not 'who showed up to a funeral' but 'who has now signaled to Tehran that they want preferred access in the post-Khamenei economic order.' Japan weighing a return to Iranian oil imports under a U.S. sanctions waiver (gcaptain.com) is the commercial leading indicator of that positioning race. Second takeaway: The Strait of Hormuz is not resolved. Macron's carrier withdrawal is a de-escalation gesture, but minesweepers staying means the mine-clearance problem is still active. Morocco's OCP fertilizer group and global phosphate markets are already pricing in the 'gradual resumption of traffic' — meaning the economic community has assigned a probability that the Strait could close again. The Saudi coalition's 'unprecedented force' vow against Houthi threats (Anadolu) in the same 24-hour window as the carrier withdrawal is a signal that the southern Gulf security architecture is not settled. Third takeaway: The WaPo disclosure that U.S. officials warned Tehran about Israeli plans to assassinate Iranian negotiators is the most consequential diplomatic story in this cycle that has no Western wire traction. If accurate, it documents an episode where Washington actively intervened to protect the Iranian nuclear negotiating team from an allied operation — a threshold of U.S.-Israel friction that the 250th anniversary news environment is currently burying. A decision-maker who wants to understand the actual state of the U.S.-Israel relationship should be reading that story, not the fireworks coverage.
Source Diversity Audit
Blind spots: Exile Iranian sources (Iran International, Manoto) are absent from this corpus, leaving the internal political dynamics of the Iranian succession — factional competition, IRGC positioning, Assembly of Experts deliberations — entirely unread. Sub-Saharan Africa coverage is thin and largely mediated through BBC language services rather than independent African outlets; the Dabanga Sudan piece is the sole genuine African investigative voice captured today.
Independent Cross-Check — Kimi
Consensus 10 Contested 2
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get married Consensus
Colombia defeats Ghana in World Cup 2026 Consensus
Funeral ceremonies for Iran's previous leader begin Consensus
Two suspects extradited from UAE in illegal gambling network case Consensus
Iranian President expresses willingness to expand cooperation with Iraqi Kurdistan Region Consensus
Mexico and England World Cup match may be moved up due to weather Contested
Baloch Rebels claim responsibility for suicide bombing killing over 30 in Pakistan Contested
Argentina defeats Cape Verde in World Cup 2026 Consensus
Egypt beats Australia on penalties in World Cup 2026 Consensus
Illegal gambling network operators arrested in UAE Consensus
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding outfits designed by Northern Irish designer Consensus
England-Mexico World Cup match will not have its start time changed Consensus
Sources
- S.629
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