Afghanistan: RTA

Broadcasts covered (22)

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# TODAY'S MEDIA TRENDS


RTANEWS


S E P T E M B E R 9,2026


# TODAY'S MEDIA TRENDS


RTANEWS


S E P T E M B E R 9,2026


TALIBAN ADMINISTRATION
SIGNALS ECONOMIC
NORMALIZATION AMIDST
ESCALATING REGIONAL CONFLICT AND DIPLOMATIC FRICTION


# DAY-AT-A-GLANCE


Broadcasts from September 9,2026,characterize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA)as a state prioritizing economic self-reliance and regional integration to counter international isolation.The central narrative focuses on the 5th Abu Hanifa International Exhibition,a flagship event intended to showcase domestic industrial growth and attract foreign direct investment from regional powers including Iran,Russia,and Uzbekistan.This push for "trade not aid"is underscored by high-level diplomatic engagements in Malaysia and Indonesia,and a stated goal to increase bilateral trade with Iran to $10billion.The administration is simultaneously leveraging infrastructure projects,such as the TAPI pipeline and the Managi dam,to project an image of technical competence and long-term


However,these themes of progress are severely challenged by two significant external crises.First,a deepening diplomatic rift with Pakistan has emerged following the expulsion of Afghan medical students,an act the IEA characterizes as a violation of human rights.Second,the regional security environment is portrayed as highly volatile,with reports of direct military kinetic engagements between Iranian forces and the United States in Jordan,Iraq,and the Persian Gulf,resulting in significant claimed casualties and the destruction of naval assets.Domestically,the administration faces mounting pressure from rising fuel and gas prices in northern provinces,which threatens to undermine the narrative of economic recovery for the average


# MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS


# The 5th Abu Hanifa International Exhibition and Regional Trade Pushes


The IEA is utilizing the Abu Hanifa Expo as
a primary vehicle for diplomatic and economic re-engagement,reporting participation interest from 20countries,with Iran requesting 1,300square meters of exhibition space.
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Economic officials are pivoting toward
"Joint Ventures"and technology transfer rather than simple aid,specifically targeting sectors like pharmaceuticals and industrial manufacturing.
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Bilateral trade with Uzbekistan is reported
to have grown from $350million to over $1.8billion,signaling a successful shift toward Central Asian markets.
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# Systemic Displacement of Afghan Students in Pakistan


The Pakistani Medical and Dental Council's
decision to expel Afghan medical students has triggered a human rights crisis narrative in IEA media,with the Afghan embassy in Islamabad expressing deep concern.
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Amnesty International has been cited to bolster the IEA's position,labeling the expulsions as discriminatory and arbitrary.•


The IEA Ministry of Higher Education is
attempting to mitigate the fallout by promising to provide educational facilities within Afghanistan for returning students and professors.
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# Reported Escalation of Iran-US Hostilities


State-linked media reports claim the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)targeted two US warships and eight tankers in the Persian Gulf.
Casualty reports circulated by the broadcasts claim 838US forces have been killed or wounded in recent regional clashes,particularly in Jordan and Iraq.
Warnings were reportedly issued to crews in Kuwait and Bahrain to abandon tankers before they were targeted.
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# Infrastructure and Resource Exploitation


A major contract for the extraction and
processing of talk (talc)in Nangarhar was signed with the Afghan Talk Company,valued at over $4.5million.
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The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum is
emphasizing in-country processing of minerals to maximize economic value and create local jobs.
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The Managi dam reconstruction in Kunar,
costing 83million AFN,is touted as a critical step toward local energy sovereignty.
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# KEY GOVERNANCE TOPICS


# Armed Conflict &Militarization


The IEA continues a high-tempo program of
militarizing the police force,with approximately 500personnel graduating from the Herat training center after professional training.
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Over 8,000Special Forces personnel have
reportedly completed specialized training in protective principles.
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The discourse frames the military as an
ideological vanguard,with training including heavy religious and "thought"components alongside technical skills.
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# Energy &Food Security


A technical committee has been established
to standardize dairy product pricing and marketing within 20days to support domestic farmers against foreign imports.
The Ministry of Agriculture has opened a new Agricultural Development Fund building in Kabul to facilitate financing for farmers and cooperatives.
Rising gas prices in Takhar are being
blamed on global market volatility and Russian production cuts,highlighting Afghanistan's vulnerability to external supply shocks.
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# Geopolitical Competition


The IEA is actively courting non-Western
blocs,hosting delegations of scientists and investors from Bangladesh and seeking expanded ties.
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Diplomats in Malaysia are focusing on
facilitating Afghan exports to Southeast Asian markets to diversify trade away from problematic neighbors like Pakistan.
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# DEEP DIVE:TRENDS AND THEMES


# The "Islamic System"as a SocioEconomic Panacea


A recurring theme in the broadcasts is the presentation of the "Islamic System"as a distinct alternative to both Western liberalism and secular autocracy.Faith is defined not merely as a set of rituals but as a social engine for change.Officials argue that "iman"(faith)is the infrastructure of society;if individuals change through faith,the society changes toward justice and peace.This ideological framework is used to justify the enforcement of Sharia,which is presented as the only way to eliminate corruption,tribalism,and


# Transition from Humanitarian Dependency to Industrial Development


There is a concerted effort to shift the international narrative from one of "humanitarian crisis"to "emerging market."The insistence on in-country mineral processing and the promotion of the Abu Hanifa Expo indicate a strategy to force international recognition through economic necessity.The IEA is signaling that it will no longer accept aid that does not contribute to long-term infrastructure.This is a high-risk strategy,as it relies on the willingness of regional players like Iran and Uzbekistan to bypass Western


Weaponization of the Diaspora and Educational Access


The friction with Pakistan over students suggests a new phase of legal and demographic warfare.By framing the expulsion of students as a human rights violation,the IEA is attempting to seize the moral high ground in international forums,despite its own domestic restrictions on education.This serves to distract from internal critiques while consolidating nationalist sentiment against


# INTERNAL DYNAMICS &DOMESTIC INSTABILITY


The IEA appears to be facing localized economic discontent,particularly in northern provinces like Takhar,where residents are openly complaining about the high cost of living.The price of petrol reaching 87-90AFN per liter is a significant burden for a population with minimal purchasing power in Takhar.The administration's response—blaming international factors like the Russia-Ukraine war—suggests a limited capacity to intervene in domestic markets


Institutional stability is being reinforced through symbolic governance,such as the visit of the Minister of Urban Development to Nangarhar's central prison to ensure "human rights"for prisoners per the Supreme Leader's orders.This indicates a desire to demonstrate centralized control and a unified command structure reaching from Kandahar to the provincial level.However,the continued focus on "reconciliation"for domestic violence cases (40women freed in 7provinces)highlights the persistence of social fractures that the state must mediate through Sharia-based dispute


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# EXTERNAL DYNAMICS &GLOBAL POSTURE


The IEA is projecting a multipolar posture,framing the Western-led international system as declining or hypocritical while highlighting ties with regional neighbors.The broadcasts give significant weight to Qatar's role as a mediator and the "voice of Afghanistan"in international human rights forums in Geneva.This suggests that the IEA sees Qatar as its primary diplomatic bridge to the global


The portrayal of the United States is overtly hostile,focusing on reported military defeats at the hands of Iran and characterizing US sanctions as oppressive and ineffective.The IEA is positioning itself as part of a regional resistance that is "stronger than the sanctions"according to analysts.The framing of the Trump-Putin call regarding Ukraine suggests the IEA is closely watching shifts in Great Power politics to identify opportunities for diplomatic


# THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT


The Afghan economy is in a state of fragile transition,where currency stability is maintained at the cost of high commodity prices for the rural poor.The emphasis on mining and energy infrastructure suggests a long-term play for resource-based revenue,though the lack of domestic refineries remains a critical


# Key Economic Vectors


Currency:The Afghani remains stable against the USD at approximately 64AFN.•


Commodities:Fuel and gas prices are a
major concern,with gas at 80AFN per kg and petrol at 90AFN per liter in northern markets.
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Trade Strategy:Target of $10billion in trade with Iran,leveraging the Chabahar and Abbas ports as alternatives to Karachi.•


Resource Extraction:Talk mine contract
in Nangarhar requires a royalty of 1,320AFN per ton to the Islamic Emirate.
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Infrastructure Spend:83million AFN for the Managi dam reconstruction;$400,000agreement for disaster management aid.•


# LEADERSHIP CHANGES


The day's reports show a high level of activity among second-tier ministerial leadership,particularly those in technical and economic roles,suggesting a delegation of power from the Supreme Leader to specialized cadres for the purpose of


Mullah Hedayatullah Badri (Minister of
Mines and Petroleum):Emerging as a key architect of the new resource-based economy,signing major international and domestic mining contracts.
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Mullah Abdul Latif Mansur (Minister of
Rural Rehabilitation and Development):Focusing on tribal outreach and grassroots infrastructure to shore up rural political support.
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Qari Din Muhammad Hanif (Minister of
Economy):Acting as the primary liaison for non-Western international investment,particularly with Bangladesh and neighboring states.
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# EDITORIAL POSTURE &STORY HIERARCHY


The editorial hierarchy is dominated by normalization and achievement.The lead stories consistently revolve around the Abu Hanifa Expo,military graduations,and infrastructure milestones.These are presented with a nationalistic,reassuring tone.The network heavily prioritizes Islamic moralizing,often dedicating the first several minutes of broadcasts to philosophical discussions on faith and social reform."Buried"stories include the inflation crisis in Takhar,which is reported but framed as a global issue rather than a domestic failure.Conspicuous omissions include any mention of the ban on girls'education,despite extensive coverage of the Pakistani medical student crisis,and the complete absence of any dissenting political voices within


# GEOPOLITICAL FRAMING


The broadcasts frame the world as a shifting landscape where traditional Western powers are being challenged by principled regional


# COUNTRIES


Pakistan:Portrayed as corrupt and
inept,violating international norms by expelling students.The framing is one of a "foe"that is acting against Islamic brotherhood.
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Iran:Characterized as a strong and
principled ally,standing with Afghanistan against sanctions and successfully engaging in military resistance against the US.
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United States:Framed as weak and
retreating,suffering massive casualties in a regional war it cannot control.
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Uzbekistan:Seen as a pragmatic and
stable partner that recognizes the economic reality of IEA sovereignty.
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# NON-STATE &CORPORATE ACTORS


UN/UNESCO:Portrayed as impotent but
useful for verifying the IEA's grievances against Pakistan or highlighting global literacy shortfalls.
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Hungarian Interchurch Aid:Framed as a
neutral,competent partner providing essential food security assistance.
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# INFORMATION WARFARE ENVIRONMENT


The IEA is engaged in a narrative seeding operation to redefine its international image.By focusing on "environmental protection laws"and "international trade standards,"the administration is attempting to adopt the language of modern statecraft to bypass political non-recognition.A significant delta exists between the reported "security for all"and the reality of specialized dispute resolution for domestic abuse,suggesting that the ground truth involves significant social tension that is being suppressed.The reports on US casualties in the Middle East appear to be a form of psychological operations intended to demoralize pro-Western sentiments within the region and embolden radical


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# HYPOTHESES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK


Economic Divergence:Afghanistan will
likely see a widening gap between a relatively stable Kabul and provincial hubs versus rural areas suffering from currency-driven inflation.The state will prioritize "showcase"projects like the Abu Hanifa Expo to maintain elite morale.
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Pakistan-Afghanistan Escalation:The
student crisis is a precursor to further titfor-tat diplomatic reprisals.The IEA may begin restricting transit for Pakistani goods to Central Asia if the medical students are not reinstated.
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Sanction Evasion Hub:The trade targets
with Iran and Russia suggest Afghanistan is being positioned as a regional clearinghouse for sanctioned goods,which will likely draw further Western regulatory scrutiny.
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# STRATEGIC FORESIGHT


Short Term (1-4Weeks):Increased social pressure in northern Afghanistan due to fuel costs may lead to localized protests or increased black-market activity.The Abu Hanifa Expo will serve as a critical barometer for regional diplomatic


Medium Term (1-6Months):The completion of the Managi dam and TAPI milestones in Herat will be used to argue for formal recognition by regional energy blocs.The returning medical students will create a bottleneck in the Afghan health system as the state struggles to integrate thousands of


Long Term (1-5Years):If the IEA successfully transitions to in-country


mineral processing,it could achieve a level of fiscal independence that makes Western humanitarian leverage entirely obsolete.However,this depends on the regional security environment remaining stable enough to allow for large-scale extraction


# RISK ASSESSMENT


Regional Spillover of Iran-US Conflict:
If the reported naval and base attacks escalate,Afghanistan could face supply chain collapse for its Iranian fuel and food imports.Triggers:Direct US retaliatory strikes on IRGC assets within or near transit zones.Likelihood:Moderate to High.Impact:Catastrophic for urban food security.Mitigations:Accelerated diversification of trade via Central Asian routes.
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Domestic Economic Volatility:Inflation
in energy prices could erode the IEA's mandate in the north.Triggers:Continued Russian production cuts or PKR/AFN fluctuations.Likelihood:High.Impact:Localized unrest and increased smuggling activity.Mitigations:Release of fuel reserves and price controls.
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Health System Degradation:The loss of
trained medical students in Pakistan creates a generational gap in Afghan healthcare.Triggers:Failure of the IEA to certify returning students.Likelihood:Moderate.Impact:Long-term increase in infant and maternal mortality.Mitigations:Swift integration of students into domestic teaching hospitals.
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Resource Conflict:Increased mining
activities in Panjshir and Nangarhar could reignite local insurgent interests.Triggers:Dispute over royalty distributions to local tribes.Likelihood:Moderate.Impact:Security threats to foreign investors.Mitigations:Transparent revenue sharing and tribal elder engagement.
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Sanctions Whiplash:Deepening trade
with sanctioned entities (Iran/Russia)could lead to a total severance of the Afghan banking system from global markets.Triggers:Formal IEA-Russia trade treaties.Likelihood:High.Impact:Complete inability to conduct international transactions.Mitigations:Expansion of hawala-based trade systems.
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# GAPS &BLIND SPOTS


The broadcasts offer no data on the actual productivity of the newly signed mines or the current electrical output of the aging grid,leaving the "energy independence"narrative unverified.There is a complete lack of information regarding the internal debate within the IEA regarding female education,which remains the primary obstacle to the recognition they are seeking via trade.Furthermore,the reports of hundreds of US casualties are entirely unverified by international news agencies,suggesting a massive disinformation campaign or a highly localized media


# CONTRARIAN NARRATIVE SCENARIOS


The "Expo as Distraction"Hypothesis:The intense focus on the Abu Hanifa Expo may be a desperate cover for a failing domestic budget.The IEA may be unable to pay civil servant salaries,using the "future promise"of


mining contracts to stave off internal


Pakistan-IEA Collusion:The medical student crisis might be a staged friction to allow the IEA to bring back skilled cadres under the guise of an "emergency"to staff its domestic hospitals,while Pakistan uses the expulsion to appease anti-Afghan domestic


Black Swan Event:A large-scale industrial disaster at a newly opened,under-regulated mine (like Panjshir emeralds or Nangarhar talk)could kill hundreds of workers,leading to a tribal uprising that the Kabul-centric military cannot effectively


# RECOMMENDATIONS &IMPLICATIONS


# For Statecraft/Public Sector:


Monitor the Uzbek-Afghan trade
corridor as a new primary artery for regional sanctioned goods.
Assess the educational vacuum left by the Pakistan expulsion as a recruitment opportunity for radicalizing youth if domestic schools fail to materialize.
Engage with Qatar to verify the technical feasibility of IEA infrastructure claims to avoid policy based on false data.
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# For Private Sector/Investors:


Supply Chain Risk:Expect extreme
volatility in fuel prices in Central Asia;regional transit through Pakistan is highrisk for the foreseeable future.
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Opportunity:There is a significant
demand for dairy and agricultural technology in Afghanistan as the state moves toward import substitution.
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Regulatory Risk:Any investment in the
Afghan mining sector must be screened for sanctions nexus with Iranian or Russian technical partners increasingly present in Kabul.
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# LEGISLATIVE ROUNDUP


Governance activity focused on environmental regulation and resource management,with new laws and technical committees aimed at formalizing state control over the


# BILLS DISCUSSED/DEBATED:•


Environmental Control and Pollution
Reduction Law:Finalized to regulate industrial emissions and waste management.
◦


National Strategy for Climate
Change:Finalized to address water scarcity and agricultural adaptation.
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Chemical Substances Management
Procedure:Drafted to regulate the import and use of industrial chemicals in mining and manufacturing.
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# HEARINGS &PRESS EVENTS:•


Government in the Mirror of Press
(7th Session):Showcase for the Health and Sports sectors,highlighting 60new health projects.
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Technical Committee on Dairy
Pricing:Convened to establish a 20-day plan for market stabilization.
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Ministry of Mines Presser:Signing of
the talk extraction contract in Nangarhar for Third Block,Shinwari district.
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# KEY STORIES


5th Abu Hanifa International
Exhibition:Preparation for a massive regional trade event in Kabul,with interest from 20countries and focus on foreign investment.
Pakistan Medical Student Expulsion:Embassies and NGOs protest Pakistan's decision to expel Afghan medical students,calling it unilateral and harmful.
US-Iran Naval Clash:Reports of Iran destroying US warships and tankers in response to attacks in Jordan and Iraq.
Nangarhar Talk Mine Contract:Signing of a multi-million dollar extraction and processing deal for talk in the Shinwari district.
Managi Dam Reconstruction:83million AFN project to provide electricity to 4,000families in Kunar.
Fuel Price Crisis in Takhar:Residents report petrol prices hitting 90AFN amid global market fluctuations.
Panjshir Emerald Export Increase:Reports of record sales of emeralds following standardized mining procedures.Literacy Campaign Achievements:Ministry of Education reports 19,000literacy courses serving 430,000citizens.
Domestic Violence Resolution:40women freed from abuse in seven provinces via Islamic legal mediation.
Mass Police Graduation in Herat:500new officers completed specialized training for Western Zone provinces.
Agriculture Development Fund Expansion:Opening of a new financing center in Badam Bagh to support rural
markets.
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TAPI Pipeline Progress:Herat officials
confirm technical readiness for the next phase of the gas pipeline.
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Afghan-Iran Trade Goal:Ambitions to
reach $10billion in trade via ocean-access ports.
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Disaster Management Agreement:
$400,000deal with Hungarian Interchurch Aid for vulnerable families.
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Trump-Putin Call:US and Russian presidents discuss ending the Ukraine war.•


Nagoya Flood Record:Japanese city hit
by 140mm of rain in one hour,causing major disruption.
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Takhtapul-Gilan Tribal Demands:Tribal
elders request dams and roads from the Minister of Rural Rehabilitation.
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Talk Production Royalty:IEA to receive
1,320AFN per ton of talk extracted in Nangarhar.
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Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade Surge:
Trade value hits $1.8billion,a five-fold increase in recent years.
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# ABOUT THIS REPORT


Today's Media Trends is a public interest experiment in applying deep thematic trend analysis to television news coverage from around the world to explore how responsibly applied advanced AI can help journalists and scholars better understand the overarching trends,themes and patterns of our global


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Each morning,in collaboration with the Internet Archive's TV News Archive,we apply Google's Gemini 3to deeply examine yesterday's coverage from each television news channel to tease out the overarching themes and trends of its news coverage into a richly annotated thematic analysis.Each highlevel insight is connected back to the original broadcast,allowing journalists and scholars to understand the dominate themes and trends and instantly click out to the underlying sources for


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